Housing in Wales: HQN’s pre-election briefing MARCH 2016 Keith Edwards Introduction “In the other countries of the UK, devolved powers mean that many aspects of housing policy will be determined locally” Roger Jarman Many of the big policy levers that impact on housing – taxation and welfare benefits for example – remain the prerogative of the UK government. Indeed a 2015 report by the Auditor General for Wales confirmed that changes to welfare benefits instigated by the UK Government had adversely affected a greater proportion of tenants of social housing in Wales than in either England or Scotland. It is, however, the case that a different narrative and agenda for action are being developed for housing in Wales. Nothing illustrates this better than whole system approach, a concept first developed by the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) Cymru and now championed by Welsh Government, with significant cross-party support. Central to this is positioning government as system steward, legislating, regulating, funding, nudging and encouraging innovation across all partners and tenures to deliver housing solutions. As a consequence there are now significant areas where housing policy and practice in Wales are taking a completely different tack to that of other administrations, most notably in comparison with the UK government. For example Wales has a fundamentally different position in relation to the Right to Buy, regulating the private rented sector and preventing homelessness. When elections to the National Assembly for Wales come around there is a genuine opportunity to hold politicians to account and try to shape the priorities of the next administration. This briefing provides an overview of politics in the run-up to the May 2016 elections as well as considering many of the key housing issues we face and will face in the future. Politics as usual? Eight weeks before the 2016 Assembly elections, Ladbrokes had already made their mind up. Wales is facing the prospect of another minority government with Labour the largest party but odds-on favourite to get under 30 seats out of the total of 60. Conversely you could get five to one against Labour reaching 31 seats, the magic number for a majority government, with these odds looking likely to grow in the run-up to election day itself. The opinion polls agree with the bookies. A survey carried out between 9 and 11 February by ITV and Cardiff University predicted Labour would be largest party with 27 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives would be next with 12 seats followed by Plaid Cymru winning ten. Seismic psephological change is likely to come with the first significant cohort of UKIP members elected to any UK legislature – this particular poll predicted a staggering nine Assembly members for the party. The fortunes of the Liberal Democrats, if the polls are correct, are moving in the opposite direction, down to a possible two seats. 2 – Housing in Wales: HQN’s pre-election briefing Of course political opinion surveys now come with additional warnings given how nearly all of the main pollsters failed to predict a Tory majority government in last year’s general election. But in one fundamental sense elections in Wales seldom surprise. Politics here has been remarkably stable for a long time with the Labour Party winning the highest share of the vote at every general election since 1922 and emerging as the largest party at all four previous Assembly elections. The voting system for assembly elections – 40 constituency seats and 20 ‘top-up’ proportional ones – make it difficult for any one party to achieve an outright majority. Labour in Wales may have some claim to being, in Harold Wilson’s words, ‘the natural party of government’. However they have yet to reach the magic 31-seat figure in Assembly elections and each of their administrations has had to garner support from either Plaid Cymru or the Liberal Democrats. Of course the arithmetic could change but, given Labour’s political hegemony and the current state of the polls, the most likely outcome once the electoral dust has settled is Labour as the largest party who will probably then attempt to forge an alliance to secure an effective administration. The current seat prediction means Labour and the Liberal Democrats wouldn’t have the combined votes for a stable government through a ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement, effectively what has been in place during this Assembly term. Post-May Labour might have no option other than to seek the support of Plaid Cymru, although a repeat of the One Wales coalition seems unlikely given Plaid’s public reluctance to countenance such an arrangement. Other party combinations are possible although this has to be tempered by, for example, Plaid Cymru ruling out coalition with the Conservatives and the likely need to include UKIP members in securing a majority if current predictions are correct. The housing consensus Ever since David Cameron claimed in 2013 that the poor performance of the NHS in Wales meant that Offa’s Dyke had become a ‘line between life and death’ the issue of health has become a major political football between Westminster and Cardiff Bay. This is not just a Labour-Tory spat. Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have consistently focused on perceived failings in the NHS in Wales at First Minister’s Questions, and it has become a key component of all opposition parties’ 2016 election campaigns to date. Ministers in Wales have robustly challenged the central tenet that the NHS in Wales is seriously underperforming in relation to England, citing an OECD report in February 2016 that concluded performance was ‘no better, or worse’ than in the rest of the UK. The debate however is likely to continue at a high volume at least until polling day and probably well beyond. Yet housing, the policy area with perhaps the greatest contrast with the UK government in terms of underlining values, strategic objectives and increasingly delivery, remains relatively uncontroversial within Wales. There is genuine cross-party consensus on many key housing issues that include, for example, high level buy-in to the importance of social housing in meeting current and future demand. Consequently it was no surprise to the housing community that Welsh Conservatives recently rejected social rent cuts and opposed the extension of the Right to Buy to housing association tenants, in diametrical 3 – Housing in Wales: HQN’s pre-election briefing opposition to a flagship policy and manifesto commitment of the UK Conservatives at the last general election. “Social housing is a vital part of our housing market. The lower rents help people, particularly those who are vulnerable, who cannot find a home from the housing market, either by buying a home or by renting from a private landlord.” Lesley Griffiths AM, Minister for Tackling Poverty and Communities Underpinning the Welsh consensus is acceptance of a tenure-blind whole system analysis and approach pioneered by the Chartered Institute of Housing Cymru. This ‘joined-up’ strategy for meeting housing need embraces investment in current and future social housing, driving up standards in the private rented sector, help for first time buyers, bringing empty homes back into use, innovation in housing finance and supporting co- operative and mutual housing models. It also recognises and promotes the role of housing in delivering triple bottom line benefits – social, economic and environmental – for people and communities. Welsh Government itself continues to develop the role, first mooted by former Minister Huw Lewis, of housing system steward using legislation and regulation as part of a suite of other tools including targeted finance, support for innovation and building long-term partnerships to deliver other government objectives including regeneration and tackling poverty. Government and opposition parties, councils and housing associations broadly share this analysis and agenda for action. The private sector has been more ambivalent in its support. Whilst it is true that most companies have embraced the i2i Can Do Toolkit to secure jobs and training though affordable housing investment, others have been vociferous opponents of what they see as a less favourable operating environment here. The most public manifestation of this came in October 2015 when Steve Morgan, chair of major house builders Redrow – Wales' second biggest listed company behind Admiral – publicly accused Welsh Government of 'letting Wales down' by pursuing policies that would discourage new build, citing a ‘snail's pace’ planning system and regulations requiring sprinklers to be installed in new homes. However, taken together, our distinctly Welsh approach to housing seems like a far more rational and sustainable basis for solving the housing crisis and providing effective support to vulnerable people than an overdependence on promoting home ownership which appears to be the central premise of policy in England. 4 – Housing in Wales: HQN’s pre-election briefing Joined-up thinking Housing in Wales is increasingly central to a more joined-up approach to public policy, for example the preventative approach to homelessness that has now been embedded in legislation. This includes an expectation that the private rented sector will become increasingly important in meeting the needs of those experiencing homelessness. This reform has to be seen in tandem with the introduction of mandatory licensing for private landlords. This of course doesn’t abrogate the role of local authority landlords and housing associations in tackling homelessness, and improved partnership working all round will be critical to success. The new approach has already received praise from independent experts including Professor Suzanne Fitzpatrick from Heriot-Watt University, who judged it to be more progressive than elsewhere in the UK, concluding Wales was leading the way and ‘at the forefront of homelessness policy development’. Another example, and in stark contrast with England, has been the treatment of housing- related support through the Supporting People programme.