DOCSLIB.ORG

The 'P5' Process: Prospects for Enhancement

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The 'P5' Process: Prospects for Enhancement Deep Cuts Working Paper No. 3, January 2015 THE ‘P5’ PROCESS: PROSPECTS FOR ENHANCEMENT by Alexey Arbatov THE ‘P5’ PROCESS: PROSPECTS FOR ENHANCEMENT Introduction Ever since his return to the Kremlin in 2012, However up until now these efforts have Putin has encouraged Russia to emphasize been fruitless. and modernize its nuclear weapons in order to enhance nuclear deterrence1. At the The United States’ official view on this same time Russia’s leadership had repeatedly subject is muter and does not have the same mentioned the impact of nuclear arsenals sense of urgency, as that of Russia. Hence, in belonging to countries other than the United Summer of 2013 the U.S. President Barack States and Russia on the global strategic Obama proposed to Russia further strategic balance and the prospects for U.S.-Russian arms reductions (down to about 1,000 war- nuclear arms control. Thus, on the eve of heads) without reference to third nuclear we- the 2012 Russian presidential elections, apon states’ engagement in the process. Still, Putin expressed his views on the subject as Washington would probably also endorse an element of his presidential program on their joining nuclear disarmament at some the matters of defense and security: “…We future time, in particular regarding China. [allegedly Russia and the United States] will not disarm unilaterally. As for further steps Most importantly, the idea of bilateral and Both principal avenues in nuclear disarmament, those steps should multilateral nuclear disarmament is conside- of nuclear arms control: be comprehensive in nature, and all nuclear red the indispensable precondition to nuc- further U.S.-Russian powers should participate in the process. We lear non-proliferation. In the famous Article nuclear disarmament cannot disarm while other nuclear powers VI of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and enhancement of are increasing their arms.”2 Speaking at the it clearly states: “Each of the Parties to the nuclear non-prolifera- National Research Nuclear University, an eli- Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in tion – imply an ex- te Russian college, in January 2014, Russian good face on effective measures relating to pansion of the nuclear President Vladimir Putin made the following cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early disarmament format. statement: “My personal position is that at date and to nuclear disarmament…”4 Since some point, humanity must renounce nuc- the United States, Russian Federation, Great lear arms. But for now, we are far from this, Britain, France and China (‘P5’) are the only in the sense that other nations aside from nuclear weapons states-Parties to the NPT, Russia have nuclear arms as well—and many recognized as legitimate NWS by the Treaty, of them—and they are not going to renoun- this demand unquestionably relates to them. ce this means of armed combat. Such a step Hence, both principal avenues of nuclear by the Russian Federation would be very arms control: further U.S.-Russian nuclear strange in these conditions, and could lead disarmament and enhancement of nuclear to some fairly serious, grave consequences non-proliferation – imply an expansion of for our nation and our people.”3 the nuclear disarmament format. The third nuclear weapon states (TNWS), namely Bri- Apparently this idea has risen to the highest tain, France and China logically seem to be political level in Russia, and it is affecting the first candidates for joining nuclear arms Moscow’s official position as a precondition limitation and reduction agreements. A few for further nuclear arms reductions following years ago this idea was officially formalized the U.S.-Russian New Strategic Arms Re- in the so called ‘P5’ forums. duction Treaty (New START), due to expire in 2021. Ever since the time of Strategic However this seemingly robust concept Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT-I) of 1972 and endeavor turned to be a trap. The “P5” Moscow has been trying to capture third meetings produced a forum for interesting nuclear weapon states’ forces (NWS) by arms discussions and constructive general docu- limitation provisions, foremost having in ments, but failed to achieve the principal view U.S. nuclear allies – Britain and France. stated goal: engagement of TNWS in the Page 2 THE ‘P5’ PROCESS: PROSPECTS FOR ENHANCEMENT process of nuclear arms limitations and reductions. It looks like there is no prospect of reaching this goal in the future for reasons beside the negative political environment, brought by the Ukrainian crisis of 2013- 2014. Even in case of political resolution of the current crisis and improved international environment, the “P5” format does not seem promising for the task assigned to it. Quite different assumptions, ways and formats would be needed. These issues are addressed below. 1. Origins and Achievements of the ‘P5’ Process. The initial idea of the endeavor was put forward by Des Browne, then UK Defense Chinese Type 908 replenishment ship at the port of Malta, March 2013. Copyright: Martin Brayley. Secretary, in February 2008 at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva. The first meeting took place in London in Septem- Many provisions were addressed to the ber 2009. The second was convened in Paris enhancement of the NPT and its regimes, in in June 2011, the third - in Washington in particular: universalization of the 1997 Ad- June 2012. The fourth ‘P5’ meeting was in ditional Protocol to NPT nuclear safeguards, Washington in April, 2013 and the fifth – in strengthening export controls, supporting Beijing in April of 2014. the Nuclear Suppliers Group and Zangger Committee, preventing nuclear terrorism. For During this period the parties negotiated and this purpose, in particular, the group called for adopted a number of general documents, securing all nuclear materials within four years which gradually were becoming more and more – in line with the appeal of President Obama. Even in case of routine and similar to each other. Those docu- The ‘P5’ called for implementation of the UN political resolution of ments universally underlined the intention of Security Council Resolution 1540 and the the current crisis and the parties to create the conditions for further International Convention for the Suppression improved international progress under NPT Article VI, discussed stra- of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Also the parties environment, the “P5” tegic stability, measures for better mutual con- urged all states to apply the IAEA recommen- format does not seem fidence and transparency. They called for the dations on the Physical Protection of Nuclear promising for the task entry into force of the Comprehensive Nucle- Material and Nuclear Facilities. assigned to it. ar-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), emphasized the importance of negotiations on a Fissile Material Since the 2011 Paris meeting the ‘P5’ made ef- Cut-off Treaty (FMCT), encouraged all states forts to better prepare for the 2015 NPT Re- to ratify the Chemical Weapons Convention view Conference. In particular the importance (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons of implementation of the Action Plan adopted Convention (BTWC). Much attention was by the 2010 NPT Review Conference was dedicated to calling on Iran to comply with the underlined. The group discussed the progress UN Security Council Resolutions and coope- made towards signature of the Protocol to the rate with the IAEA, as well as to urging North Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear We- Korea to agree to the complete and verifiable apon Free Zone (SEANWFZ), endorsed the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. establishment of the Central Asian Nuclear Page 3 THE ‘P5’ PROCESS: PROSPECTS FOR ENHANCEMENT Weapon Free Zone and supported the plan of 2. Questioning the Basic convening a Conference on the establishment of a Middle East Weapons of Mass Destructi- Assumptions on (WMD) free zone. The principal deficiency of the ‘P5’ nuclear Beside the mentioned documents the ‘P5’ initiative was applying the model of multilate- process produced some practical results. One ral arms control over various nuclear activities of these was the creation of the working group to the “hard core” arms control of partial and (led by China) on the Glossary of key nuclear phased limitation and reduction of nuclear terms, which made a big progress with the aim weapons – i.e. delivery vehicles and warheads. of completing the first phase of the Glossary by the 2015 NPT Review Conference. Ano- The first model has been relatively successful ther working group was created to deal with in achieving since 1963 several nuclear test- nuclear verification issues. ban treaties (culminating in the signing of the CTBT in 1996), the NPT in 1968, as well as While recognizing some usefulness of the a number of treaties on non-deployment of discussions and documents of the meetings, nuclear weapons in various spaces (i.e. Outer it should be pointed out that the ‘P5’ did no Space Treaty of 1967, which prohibited the tangible progress towards its main initial goal: deployment of WMD in space, and the Treaty engaging all five NWS in the nuclear disar- of 1971, prohibiting such deployment on the mament process through involving Britain, Seabed and Ocean Floor), as well as in various France and China in practical negotiations geographic regions (nuclear weapon or WMD and agreements. The routine common positi- free zones). Also this collective model was The trap of the ‘P5’ nuc- on of the latter three states has been that the implemented in total prohibition and phy- lear process was that U.S. and Russia should reduce their nuclear sical elimination of the whole two classes of its concept stemmed weapons arsenals to bring them closer to the WMD: by the Chemical Weapons Conven- directly from the NPT UK, French and Chinese force levels as a pre- tion of 1993 and the Biological and Toxin Article VI. Thus the NPT condition for negotiating common reductions Weapons Convention of 1972.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security
    RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004 Institute of World Economy and International Relations RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004 Compiled and edited by ALEXANDRE KALIADINE AND ALEXEI ARBATOV Moscow 2005 УДК 327 ББК 64.4 (0) Rus 95 Rus 95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security/ IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2004 / Compiled and edited by A. Kaliadine, A. Arbatov. IMEMO, 2005. – 128 p. ISBN 5-9535-0038-6 Your comments and requests for obtaining the book should be sent to: IMEMO 23, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow GSP-7, 117997 Russian Federation Telephone: (+7 095) 128 05 13 Telefax: (+7 095) 128 65 75 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL:: http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 5-9535-0038-6 © ИМЭМО РАН, 2005 CONTENTS PREFACE........................................................................................... 5 ACRONYMS ...................................................................................... 7 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS: NEW THREATS, NEW SO LUTIONS. Alexei ARBATOV ................ 13 Nuclear deterrence and terrorism: the prospect of terrorists coming into possession of nuclear weapons....................................................... 14 Synergy of proliferation
    [Show full text]
  • Russia's Global Reach: a Security and Statecraft Assessment
    Russia’s Global Reach: A Security and Statecraft Assessment Edited by Graeme P. Herd About the Marshall Center The George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies is one of five U.S. Department of Defense Regional Centers and the only bilateral Center. It is also the only regional center for the Federal Republic of Germany. The mission of the Marshall Center is to enable solutions to regional and transnational security challenges through capacity building, access, and a globally connected network. An instrument of German-American cooperation, the center addresses regional and transnational security issues for the U.S. Department of Defense and German Federal Ministry of Defense, and maintains contact with a vast alumni network of security professionals. The legacy, goals, and ideals of the Marshall Plan continue through the security education initiatives of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. The Marshall Center, dedicated in 1993, is a renowned international security and defense studies institute that promotes dialogue and understanding among the nations of North America, Europe and Eurasia. The Marshall Center is committed to carrying Marshall's vision into the 21st century. Supported bilaterally by the governments of the United States and Germany, the Marshall Center boasts an international faculty and staff with representatives from ten partner nations. In addition to supporting the European theater security cooperation strategies and objectives, the Marshall Center supports five South and Central Asian States: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Marshall Center also has a supporting relationship with Mongolia and Afghanistan. For reprint permissions, contact the editor via [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: U.S
    Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: U.S. and Russian Nuclear Concepts, Past and Present Linton Brooks, Francis J. Gavin, and Alexei Arbatov AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ARTS & SCIENCES Challenges of the New Nuclear Era: The Russian Perspective Alexei Arbatov In a 2012 newspaper article outlining his platform for the Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin stated, “We will under no circumstances surrender our strategic deterrent capability, and indeed will in fact strengthen it. As long as the ‘powder’ of our strategic nuclear forces . remains dry, nobody will dare launch a large-scale aggression against us.”1 Putin’s promise is being implemented ambitiously under the 2020 state armament program, which is aimed at deploying about four hundred new strategic ballistic missiles, eight nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and new systems of heavy bombers and air-launched cruise missiles.2 But on October 24, 2014, while speaking at a Valdai forum in Sochi at the peak of the Ukrainian crisis, Putin suddenly declared, “The fewer nuclear arms in the world—the better. We are ready for most serious talks on the nuclear disarmament issues, but for serious talks—without double standards.”3 Three months later, at the session of the Russian Federation Military-Industrial Com- mission, he warned, “We see other states . actively building up and perfecting their military arsenals. We can and must respond to this challenge, but, as I said earlier, without being drawn into an expensive arms race.”4 Strictly speak- ing, Russia’s widely advertised strategic program cannot be qualified as an arms race—if only because for the time being no other nation can claim the role of a counterpart to this competition—but undoubtedly it is a massive and expensive, even if one-sided, modernization of the nuclear arsenal.
    [Show full text]
  • Russian Federation – Yabloko – Treatment of Supporters – Tax Investigations
    Refugee Review Tribunal AUSTRALIA RRT RESEARCH RESPONSE Research Response Number: RUS32923 Country: Russian Federation Date: 27 February 2008 Keywords: Russian Federation – Yabloko – Treatment of supporters – Tax investigations This response was prepared by the Research & Information Services Section of the Refugee Review Tribunal (RRT) after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the RRT within time constraints. This response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. This research response may not, under any circumstance, be cited in a decision or any other document. Anyone wishing to use this information may only cite the primary source material contained herein. Questions 1. Please provide information on fate of Yabloko Party supporters from 2003 to present. 2. What are the procedures for investigating tax offences? Who are the investigators? Where are the people interviewed? 3. Where are the tax offices located in Moscow? 4. What are the summons and charge procedures for tax offences? 5. Is there a “black list” for people wanted for tax offences when departing Russia? RESPONSE 1. Please provide information on fate of Yabloko Party supporters from 2003 to present. Information on this question is provided under the following sub-headings: Information on the Yabloko Party Funding of the Yabloko Party Treatment of Yabloko supporters since 2003 Information on the Yabloko Party The Yabloko Party is a liberal democratic party in Russia. Although it is well established, Yabloko has been marginalised in Russian politics and has a relatively low level of support. It did not win any seats in the Duma elections held in December 2007.
    [Show full text]
  • Possible Scope and Conditions for Information-Sharing and Confidence-Building Measures Regarding Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe
    Possible scope and Conditions for Information-Sharing and Confidence-Building Measures regarding Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe Steven Pifer Senior Fellow, Center on the US and Europe and Director, Arms Control Initiative Foreign Policy Brookings Institution Working Paper prepared for “The Warsaw Workshop: Prospects for Information Sharing and Confidence Building on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe” Warsaw, Poland, 7-8 February 2013 A Range of Possible Measures Over the past few years, NATO officials, along with Western and Russian non-governmental experts, have suggested information-sharing (transparency) measures and other confidence-building measures (CBMs) for dealing with non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs).1 U.S. National Security Advisor Donilon in March 2011 proposed reciprocal transparency “on the numbers, locations and types of non-strategic forces in Europe.”2 An April 2011 paper endorsed by ten NATO permanent representatives called additionally for reciprocal transparency on “command arrangements, operational status and level of operational security.”3 A February 2012 paper released by the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative set out other possible measures: “demating” NSNWs from delivery systems; relocating NSNWs away from NATO-Russia borders; consolidation of NSNWs at fewer storage sites; and restricting NSNWs to declared storage sites.4 NATO’s May 2012 “Deterrence and Defense Posture Review” endorsed the concept of CBMs in general but did not specify particular proposals. The Russian government has not put
    [Show full text]
  • The Impact of NATO Expansion on Russian Political Parties
    After Kosovo : The Impact of NATO Expansion on Russian Political Parties JOHANNA GRANVILLE uring the heated debate leading up to the Senate's ratification of the Clinton D administration decision to enlarge NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organiza- tion), opponents predicted that expansion would alienate Russia, with dire con- sequences for world peace.1 Nevertheless, by a vote of 80 to 19, the Senate endorsed the policy on 30 April 1998.1 One by one, over the ensuing months, par- liaments in other NATO member countries ratified the expansion decision as well. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic became the newest members of NATO in a ceremony held in Independence, Missouri, on 12 March 1999. The crisis in Kosovo that occasioned NATO military action against the Rus- sian-favored Yugoslavian government and its president, Slobodan Milosevic, has ended. However, the issues of NATO expansion and Kosovo will no doubt figure prominently in the Russian presidential election in June 2000. The time is right to take stock and ask: Have recent NATO decisions discredited the liberal Rus- sian political parties and strengthened the conservative ultranationalist and Com- munist parties? A common shortcoming of articles predicting the worst in this regard has been the tendency to treat Russia as a unified body. Perhaps this was permissible, indeed necessary, when the West lacked detailed information about the Kremlin during the cold war period. Today, however, a more discriminating anallysis is not only possible, but imperative. Russia has a more-or-less Free press and more than one hundred political parties (forty-three of which gained enough support to run slates of candidates in the December 1995 Duma elections).3 Unlike many over- simplified articles by Western pundits with a political agenda, in this article 1 will draw mainly on statements made by Russians themselves.
    [Show full text]
  • Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security
    RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2010 Preface by Academician Alexander DYNKIN Compiled and edited by ALEXANDRE KALIADINE AND ALEXEI ARBATOV Moscow 2011 2 УДК 327 ББК 66.4 (0) Rus 95 Rus 95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security/ IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2010 / Compiled and edited by A. Kaliadine, A. Arbatov. IMEMO, 2011. – 138 pp. ISBN 978-5-9535-0291-7 Your comments and requests for obtaining the book should be sent to: IMEMO 23, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow GSP-7, 117997 Russian Federation Telephone: (+7 095) 128 05 13 Telefax: (+7 095) 128 65 75 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.imemo.ru ISB 978-5-9535-0291-7 © ИМЭМО РАН, 2011 3 CONTENTS PREFACE .............................................................................................. 5 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ......................................................................................... 7 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MODERN NUCLEAR DOCTRINES................................................................ 13 Alexei ARBATOV Nuclear strategy of the leading states ............................................. 14 Classification of nuclear doctrines ................................................. 17 Conclusions ..................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Npr 5.1: the Duma-Senate Logjam on Arms Control
    George Bunn & John B. Rhinelander here is a growing logjam of arms control treaties pro quo promised to these non-weapon states for for- waiting for approval in both the Russian State swearing nuclear weapons for all time may well be seen TDuma and the U.S. Senate. Without decisive ac- as being denied. With both the nuclear negotiations prom- tion, this logjam will probably prevent approval by the ised for the Middle East peace process and U.S.-Rus- world’s two largest military powers of the Strategic Arms sian nuclear reductions stymied, the seven Islamic Reduction Treaty (START II) governments that strongly of 1993, the Comprehensive criticized the NPT decision Test Ban Treaty of 1996 after it was made—Egypt, (CTBT), amendments to the VIEWPOINT: Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Ma- Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) laysia, Nigeria, and Syria— Treaty, and the protocols of THE DUMA-SENATE could form the nucleus of a the Treaty of Pelindaba (cre- LOGJAM ON ARMS Non-Aligned Movement ating an African nuclear- (NAM) group threatening weapon-free zone (NWFZ)) CONTROL: WHAT CAN withdrawal from the NPT.1 and the Treaty of Rarotonga Such a threat could rupture (creating a South Pacific BE DONE? the near consensus that was NWFZ) before the end of the achieved within the NPT on century. It will also prevent by George Bunn & John B. Rhinelander indefinite extension and progress towards START III that has supported joint ac- and further bilateral nuclear tion in cases such as Iraq reductions. (For a list of treaties affected, see the Ap- and North Korea, resulting in a crisis for the NPT.
    [Show full text]
  • Non-Nuclear Factors of Nuclear Disarmament
    INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE This publication is dedicated to the memory of Alexander Pikaev, our colleague and friend NON-NUCLEAR FACTORS OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT (Ballistic Missile Defense, High-Precision Conventional Weapons, Space Arms) Foreword by Academician Alexander A. Dynkin at the Conference "Missile Defense, Non-Proliferation and Deep Re- duction of Nuclear Weapons" Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev Moscow IMEMO RAN 2010 УДК 327 ББК 66.2 (0) Non 76 Foreword by Academician Alexander A. Dynkin at the Conference "Missile Defense, Non-Proliferation and Deep Reduction of Nuclear Weapons" Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev Non 76 Non-Nuclear Factors of Nuclear Disarmament (Ballistic Missile De- fense, High-Precision Conventional Weapons, Space Arms). Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, Sergey Oznobishchev.– Mos- cow, IMEMO RAN, 2010. – 67 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0260-3 Non-nuclear Factors of Nuclear Disarmament (Ballistic Missile De- fense, High-Precision Conventional Weapons, Space Arms) This is the third publication of the series titled "Russia and the Deep Nuclear Disarmament", which is to be issued in the framework of joint project implemented by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc. (NTI). It is based on the discussions at the conference held on June 22, 2010. The authors express their gratitude to the IMEMO staff for compre- hensive support in the production of this research paper and organization of the fruitful discussion. This research report was commissioned by the Nu- clear Security Project (NSP) of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).
    [Show full text]
  • The Chechen Wars' Contribution to Failing
    DEMOCRATIZATION AND WAR: THE CHECHEN WARS’ CONTRIBUTION TO FAILING DEMOCRATIZATION IN RUSSIA HANNA SMITH ALEKSANTERI INSTITUTE Abstract: This article extends Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder’s proposition that regimes in the process of democratization are more likely to engage in international conflict. First, the article expands the theory to include civil war by looking at Russia’s internal clashes with Chechnya. Second, the analysis demonstrates the existence of a vicious circle in which the process of democratization led to military adventures, which in turn reduced the level of democracy in Russia. While many explanations have been advanced for the Chechen wars, this article focuses on elite competition, the role of the military, the loss of great power status, and the need to identify an external enemy in order to promote internal consolidation as determining factors. his article argues that the effect of the two Chechen wars, 1994-1996 Tand 1999-2002, has been devastating to the Russian democratization process. Both wars were the product of a regime moving from authoritarian to more democratic government but, the wars themselves helped block Russia’s democratic transition and reinforced the semi-authoritarian nature of the state. This argument proceeds using the framework of the theory about democratization and war developed by Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder. The article analyzes how this theory and its implications fit Russia’s case, Hanna Smith is a researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute, P.O. Box 42 (Unioninkatu 33) FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland, Hanna. [email protected]. 627 628 Demokratizatsiya and whether the case of Russia and particularly Russia’s wars in Chechnya support the theory.
    [Show full text]
  • Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security
    RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2007 MOSCOW 2008 RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2007 Compiled and edited by ALEXANDRE KALIADINE AND ALEXEI ARBATOV Moscow 2008 УДК 327 ББК 64.4 (0) Rus 95 Rus 95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2007 / Compiled and edited by A. Kaliadine, A. Arbatov. IMEMO, 2008. – 121p. ISBN 978-5-9535- 0151-4 Your comments and requests for obtaining the book should be sent to: IMEMO 23, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow GSP-7, 117997 Russian Federation Telephone: (+7 095) 128 05 13 Telefax: (+7 095) 128 65 75 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535- 0151-4 © ИМЭМО РАН, 2008 CONTENTS PREFACE .................................................................................................. 5 ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. 6 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. BACK TO ARMS CONTROL? Vladimir BARANOVSKY.................. 11 2. LOOKING FORWARD TO A WORLD FREE OF MASS DESTRUCTION WEAPONS. Hans BLIX......................................... 17 The Commission on WMD and the outlook for the Report ............. 18 Findings of the WMDC Report .......................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Revising Nuclear Deterrence
    Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland Revising Nuclear Deterrence Alexei Arbatov Vladimir Dvorkin Research and technical support: Vladimir Evseev November 2005 CISSM School of Public Policy 4113 Van Munching Hall University of Maryland This paper was prepared as part of the Advanced Methods of Cooperative Security Program at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, with Phone: 301-405-7601 generous support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The Fax: 301-403-8107 views expressed in this paper are the authors’ own. E-mail: [email protected] 2 Acknowledgements The authors of this paper are grateful to the Center for International and Security Studies (CISSM) at the University of Maryland for initiating this study on the past, present and future of nuclear deterrence, and to the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for supporting the work. Our special thanks go to John Steinbruner, who provided valuable intellectual guidance and comments on the subject of the paper, and to Nancy Gallagher for organizing our efficient interaction during the whole research period. We also greatly appreciate the organizational help and support of CISSM and Carnegie Moscow Center staff, as well as the comments and advice of all Russian and American experts who have read all or parts of the paper, or discussed with us its various details. At the same time, the authors bear full responsibility for the assumptions, theoretical analysis and practical proposals of the study. About the Authors Alexei Arbatov – Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Dr. Prof. Sc. (History); Director of the Center for International Security, Institute for World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Russian Academy of Sciences; Scholar in Residence, Carnegie Moscow Center; former (1993-2003) deputy chair of the defense committee of Russian Parliament (State Duma), former member of Soviet delegation at START I talks (1990).
    [Show full text]