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1 Jean Laherrère 12 March 2017 Comments on the Data of the Hill's Jean Laherrère 12 March 2017 Comments on the data of the Hill’s Group ETP model When I heard for the first time about the ETP model by the Hill’s Group, I found that it was based on exergy, but without quoting Robert Ayres who was the only one (with B. Warr) reporting historical series on exergy (useful energy) See my comments on Ayres’ article pages 20 to 28 Laherrere J.H. 2014 «Oil and gas perspectives in the 21st century » ESCP London debate 17 Feb. http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/JL_ESCP_London_2014.pdf The US exergy (green) follows the primary energy supply (red). Starting at 1 from 1900, US, UK and Japan exergy have grown differently 1 Starting from 1900 the exergy of UK grows less, starting from a high level, when Japan exergy growth is larger starting from a low level. There are many problems to get reliable data on exergy, as for EROI. The best example is the many articles on corn ethanol EROI which cannot decide if the EROI is above or below 1, as quoted recently by Charlie Hall (the first one to introduce EROI) http://peakoil.com/generalideas/charlie-hall-on-eroei So, without more detailed data the ETP model was for me unreliable but difficult to comment except that any report based on exergy should refer to the world historical exergy values and I do not know any such data. But recently I found a more detailed 2015 Hill’s Group paper on the site http://peakoilbarrel.com/on-the-thermodynamic-model-of-oil-extraction-by-the-hills-group/#more-15049 On the Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by the Hill’s Group by Dennis Coyne Posted on 02/24/2017 A Guest Post by SK The report reviewed here claims to rely on thermodynamics arguments to predict oil’s price-volume trajectory going forward. http://www.thehillsgroup.org/petrohgv2.pdf 2 My comments on this 2015 paper argue not about the theory, but about the data they use: most of the data is badly defined and mostly wrong! -page 3 The Hill’s Group confuses Darcy and Darsie: they know very little the oil industry and the measure of permeability! Conventional crude oil is not restricted to the range 30-45 °API. All heavy oils are below 30°API and condensate above 45°API. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hassan_Harraz/publication/301842929_BENCHMARKS_OF_CRUD E_OILS/links/572a065b08aef7c7e2c4ede8.pdf?origin=publication_list http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=7110 3 EIA reports US condensate (>45°API) with crude oil production and reports crude oil production by type only since 2011 (the States do not provide such data). LTO production is lighter, in particular Eagle Ford https://btuanalytics.com/quality-matters-api-gravities-of- major-us-fields/ 4 Hill’s definition 30-45 °API of crude oil excludes 15% of US L48 oil production below 30°API and 22% above 45°API: in total Hill’s definition excludes 37% of the USL48 oil production http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=23952 Most of California oil production is below 30°API 5 It is worse including oil imports: The average crude oil input to refinery 1985 to 2015 is just above 30°API, meaning that about 50% is below 30 °API http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_ipct_k_a.htm The percentage of 30-45 °API in the US imported crude oil was 84% in 1978 but only 35% in 2016 6 US percentage of imported crude oil by API gravity from EIA 90 Jean Laherrere March 2017 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 <20°API 20.1-25 °API 25.1-30 °API 30.1-35 °API 35;1-40 °API 40.1-45 °API >45 °API 30-45 °API It means that Hill’s definition of petroleum does not agree with the petroleum production values they used! There is no consensus on the definition of conventional, outside that the extra-heavy (including the tarsands) are obviously unconventional because their trapping is different (no water contact being heavier than water) World crude oil production and cumulative production from EIA 30 1500 source: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/?tbl 25 =T11.01B#/?f=A&start=1973&end=2015&charted=0 1250 -11-12 20 1000 heavy productionGb heavy 15 750 - crude oil Gb EIA crude-XH 10 500 crude-XH-LTO cumulativeproductionGb CP crude oil de oil less de less oil extra 5 250 cru 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Jean Laherrere Jan 2017 year IEA reports conventional oil production for the world as OPEC and NOPEC in their WEO from 2008 to 2016 (see table 3.11) 7 The plot shows that world conventional crude oil as defined by IEA peaked about 2005 (no detail for 2004 and 2006) world conventional crude oil production from IEA/WEO 2010 to 2016 80 world 70 OPEC NOPEC 60 50 40 Mb/d 30 20 10 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Jean Laherrere March 2017 year WEO2010 page 48 said that the conventional crude oil peaked in 2006 (in fact a bumpy plateau at 70 Mb/d) as shown in this graph 8 The Hill’s Group lacks a precise knowledge about oil production and lacks the wish to improve his knowledge! Why gross and net exergy? Most papers report only exergy: -Wikipedia has another definition of exergy: “In thermodynamics, the exergy (in older usage, available work and/or availability) of a system is the maximum useful work possible during a process that brings the system into equilibrium with a heat reservoir.” -Goran Wall 1977 (http://exergy.se/goran/thesis/paper1/paper1.html) “Exergy is that part of energy that is convertible into all other forms of energy.” -Robert Ayres 1997: “Exergy is defined as the potential work that can be extracted from a system by reversible processes as the system equilibrates with its surroundings. It is, in fact, the ‘useful’ part of energy and is what most people mean when they use the term ‘energy’ carelessly (as in economics). There are four components of exergy. They are: (i) kinetic exergy associated with relative motion; (ii) potential field exergy associated with gravitational or electro-magnetic field differentials; (iii) physical exergy (from pressure & temperature differentials); and (iv) chemical exergy (arising from differences in chemical composition).” Exergy is reported in terajoules TJ or in petajoules PJ -Quora “Exergy is the maximum useful work which can be obtained in a process in which system obtains dead state.” -IEA https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/statistics_manual.pdf reports page 20 that gross caloric value includes all the heat released from the fuel, when net calorific value excludes the latent heat of the water formed during the combustion: it is not the definition above where work at the wellhead is excluded from the gross! Exergy is the usable energy, the useful energy, the available energy (Gibbs 1878), the quality of energy: there is no gross or net as defined by the Hill’s Group! 9 Oil production is counted by barrels and not gallons! -page 5 The Hill’s Group is unable to write correctly my name with Leharrère instead of Laherrère when it is correctly written in their reference 7 -page 8 Why 537 °R? -page 9 Why is the reserve temperature given in °R = degree Rankine? Degree Rankine is tied with °F (Fahrenheit) and K = degree Kelvin °R = °F +459.67 °R = K*1.8 537 °R = 77 °F = 25 °C (omitted by the Hill’s Group) The US National Institute of Standards and Technology recommends against using it: it is an obsolete unit! The Hill’s Group ignores the SI units, which are the rules in everywhere in the world outside Liberia, Myanmar and the US nonfederal (US federal agencies are obliged to use the SI since 1993: in 1998 Mars Climate Orbiter crashed on March because NASA sent the instructions in newton SI when the builder 10 Lockheed built it in pound!), but they quote in reference 14 the IPCC data, which reports only temperature in °C! http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/proc-renewables-lubeck.pdf They quote the heat content of a gallon (oil production is measured in barrel!) of 35.7 °API but they forget to mention that the density of the oil has changed with time and the world average oil gravity is not 35.7 °API Oil is getting lighter and the ratio barrel per tonne oil equivalent increases world oil b/t from BP and b/toe from EIA 11 EIA prod NGPL b/toe 10 BP prod US oil b/t BP cons inc biofuels b/t BP prod oil exc biofuels b/t EIA consumption b/toe 9 EIA prod C+C b/toe b/toe,b/t 8 7 6 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year Jean Laherrere June 2015 -page 10 This graph below displays the lack of rigor of the Hill’s Group papers with 2357.15 Gb and 2123.46 GB: why Gb and GB? Why 6 significant digits for an estimate of an ultimate, which is widely uncertain: from my side, I use only two significant digits! The horizontal scale is called year, but in fact the number is the year less 1900! Why not to plot year since 1900 as some other Hill’s graphs. API reported world oil production since 1857 and the cumulative oil production in 1900 is 0.4 Gb a: this data should have been mentioned! Why to show in their graphs 1900 as zero and not 1900: it is confusing! 11 The Hill’s Group said that our data has reached an inflexion point of 1061.73 Gb in April of 1995, but our data say quite differently: in 1995, the cumulative production was 820 Gb for all liquids, 800 Gb for oil and NGL and 760 Gb for crude oil less extra-heavy.
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