CERI Crude Oil Report

April 2018 CERI Crude Oil Report

Policy Debates and Business Timelines  Reduction in present value of net revenues from a Allan Fogwill project. When considering these impacts, it is important to separate out the revenues collected to Concerns regarding the balance of economic and pay for operating costs. Those will tend to balance environmental objectives continue to be part of the out over time. However, the net profit from a policy debate in Canada. We see concerns raised by project can be delayed. Such a delay means the Indigenous Peoples concerning the Site C hydroelectric revenue stream collected by a company has a lower facility in BC and similarly with the Muskrat Falls project present value. in Labrador. We have seen the delay or cancellation of natural gas electricity generation projects in Ontario due  Delayed economic impacts from the project under to concerns from local citizens, and we have seen delays consideration - additional jobs, provincial taxes, GDP and regulatory changes associated with oil and natural – again, these impacts do not disappear. They are gas pipelines across the country. delayed, and it is the time value of money that creates the cost associated with changing the These concerns create delays in the timeline for various timeline of a project as delayed future benefits in the projects. While businesses or proponents indicate that same dollar amount are less valuable to society. these delays cost money, it is not clear how they determine the cost of these delays. Aside from the economic costs, there are some specific financial expenses which are difficult to quantify. These CERI suggests that if we want to understand the include the risk associated with stock market valuations economic impacts of delays we need to have a common and legal costs associated with policy debates that move framework for assessing it. Otherwise, the estimates put toward a provincial or federal court. The extent of these forward can be countered with alternative numbers that costs can vary widely but are a consideration by a firm as can vary significantly. Agreeing on the facts is the first it looks to pursue a project. step in attempting to reach consensus on issues of concern. Let us consider the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project to illustrate the framework. We know that there A delay in a project has three overall economic impacts is a debate underway regarding the policy implications of that can be supported in the academic literature. These this project. The principle argument is the jurisdictional include: authority of a provincial government (in this case BC) versus the federal government.  Additional interest charges on the overall upfront costs of the project. Normally when firms determine In the past, jurisdictional concerns have often been the cost of the project, they estimate how long it will resolved through negotiations. In the case of the Trans take to pay back those costs either to investors (if Mountain Pipeline, that does not seem to be a realistic internally financed) or financial institutions. A one- option. As such, a reference to the Supreme Court on year delay means more interest on the same money jurisdictional authority appears to be the path which is that had been borrowed. being followed. Moreover, given that there are other matters of overlapping jurisdiction such as in health care CERI Crude Oil Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill and environment, such a reference would provide clarity to how the Canadian Federation is to function in the About CERI Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, registered future. charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

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Source: https://nativesolidarity.org/master-catalog/coast-salish-tribes-oppose-the-transmountain-pipeline

So, let's return to the Trans Mountain case as an example As we noted earlier, the cost of the delay is the of the costs of project delays. additional carrying cost of the project. If the project is delayed one year, for example, the net capital costs will The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project is an have to fund an additional year. Think of it as an expansion of an existing oil pipeline from 300,000 barrels additional set of mortgage payments when you delay per day to 890,000 barrels per day (b/d). As shown on paying off your home mortgage by one year. the map, the route starts in Edmonton and ends in Vancouver. From that point, oil is placed onto ocean- A key assumption is what interest rate you use. Standard going tankers and can be sold to markets in Asia and practice is to use the weighted cost of capital which is a North America. The major policy concern is the risk of oil combination of the return to debt holders and a return spills in the coastal waters around BC. to equity investors. Ten percent (10%) is the standard rate used most often. Using this rate gives us the cost of CERI collected information on the project from Kinder a 1-year delay in the project of CAD$490 million Morgan’s regulatory filings.1 This information can be (constant 2012 dollars). considered credible as the company must attest to it in hearings in front of an adjudicator (NEB) and to which If the pipeline is not in operation, it does not generate the company and management can be held accountable revenues. It also does not incur operating costs except for its accuracy. for ongoing funding of the internal operations and project management. These are difficult to estimate. As The capital cost of the project is listed as CAD$5.5 billion such, it is the net revenues which would be a cost factor to be spent over seven years (2012-2018). When it was of a delay. adjusted for inflation and brought into constant 2012 dollars, the cost is CAD$4.9 billion.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 3

Some Trans Mountain shippers contract for firm pipeline $96.6 million plus $95.5 million plus $34.7 million for a commitments and others for intermittent or spot service. total of CAD$716.8 million. Of the 590,000 b/d new capacity, most is committed to firm contracts with 180,000 b/d assigned to the spot So, during a policy debate, the delay of this pipeline market. being constructed for one year is more than CAD$700 million. This number does not take into consideration “Annual revenues associated with these contracts were provincial, and federal taxes which would be paid if the estimated by the Conference Board to be $944 million pipeline was operational or the value people place on based on the projected capital costs of the Project and additional employment. This is but one example. Similar the toll structure that would be applied. This revenue calculations can be done using any major project for estimate only includes the fixed component of the toll.”2 which delays in the process occur. It is, therefore, important that when decision makers consider these However, that includes the full pipeline and not just the debates and listen to the concerns of stakeholders and expansion. The existing pipeline generates CAD$300 project proponents that a similar calculus occur. million annually, which is ongoing. Therefore, the total incremental revenue lost from a delay is CAD$644 Are we done with this example? No. million. That fixed component for firm shippers would be the all-in costs of the pipeline operations. That said, the In the case of our oil supply system, the market dynamics net revenues would approximate the return on equity are complicated. One of the challenges is the price (ROE) which can vary. If we assume an ROE of 15%, that discount by which Canadian producers sell their product means the net revenue would be CAD$96.6 million per to customers. Normally the price discount between year. Canadian crude and the West Texas Intermediate price is in the CAD$15 range. This goes higher and lower It gets complicated when the intermittent shipping depending on the availability of transport capacity and annual revenue of $191 million3 is considered. Often the quality of the crude exports. For instance, since firms include a smaller portion of these revenues toward December 2017, the differential was in the rage of US$15 fixed costs. If we assumed that 50% of these revenues -30 (CAD$20-40). At the same time, Kinder Morgan’s are net of cost, then the lost annual net revenue is $95.5 existing pipeline was oversubscribed in January by 35% million. and in February by 32%,5 while the Keystone pipeline was full in 2017 except for November.6 The final element of the cost of a delay is the delay in a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution of the In 2017, CERI analyzed how that differential might affect project to the provincial and national economies. Again, the economic contribution to Canada of crude oil it is important to note that a delay only means that the exports. Our rule of thumb is that for every CAD$1 per benefits happen later. The cost is losing those benefits barrel of crude change in the annual average differential, for one year, in this example. The Conference Board of the economic contribution to Canada changes by CAD$1 Canada in their assessment determined an annual GDP billion. So, as we consider the policy implications of benefit of CAD$693.1 million.4 whether additional crude oil pipelines are in the national or provincial interest, we should also be aware that Here we would have to consider that a social discount additional capacity improves the economic contribution rate is more appropriate, as our society takes a longer of these activities to the country. view of costs and benefits compared to financial markets and companies. If we assume a discount rate of 5%, we It cannot be stated that additional capacity of a pipeline get the cost of a one-year delay in this project of will result in reducing the crude price discount CAD$34.7 million. experienced by Canadian producers. However, it is another consideration when determining the scope and Overall, we see that policy debates that impact business timeliness of resolving our policy debates in Canada. timetables have an impact on the firm and the economy. In this case, for the Kinder Morgan expansion project, we see the cost of a one-year delay as CAD$490 million plus

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Endnotes 1 Kinder Morgan’s application to the NEB for the project, specifically Volumes 1, 2 and 4. The documents available include all the necessary information. Two studies that made Appendices A and B in Vol. 2 of the Application are used: IHS Global Canada Ltd. “Trans Mountain Expansion Project Direct Written Evidence of Steven J. Kelly” and Conference Board of Canada report “The Trans Mountain Expansion Project: Understanding the Economic Benefits for Canada and its Regions.” 2 “The variable component is primarily based on the electricity costs associated with shipping through the pipeline and is passed directly through to shippers. As such, the variable component would not have an impact on the labour or material inputs that the pipeline would use, or on the profits that it generates, and is not included when estimating the economic effects.” 3 Conference Board of Canada estimate, in TMEP Application. 4 ibid. 5 https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/houston/canadas- trans-mountain-crude-pipeline-oversubscribed-21891778; https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/houston/canadas- trans-mountain-crude-pipeline-oversubscribed-21167490 6 https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/pplnprtl/pplnprfls/ crdl/kstn-eng.html

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Feb-18 4 EdmontonLight WTI Apr10, 2018 Feb-17 3 Differential Mar09, 2018 4 contract months 4contract 2 Edmonton Edmonton Light - Price Differentials (US$/bbl) Differentials Price Feb-16 Feb09, 2018

WTI WTI

NYMEX WTI Crude Forward Curve

Feb-15 0 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 US$/bbl

US$/bbl

SOURCE:EIA. SOURCE:EIA, CERI. N 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Feb-18 Mar-18 US$/bbl 36.56 38.47 37.36 Cdn. Heavy* Cdn. Feb-18 56.34 52.60 58.61 Jan-18 Cdn.Light* WCS Dec-17 Brent 66.89 66.86 68.19 Feb-17 Nov-17 WTI Oct-17 WTI 62.93 62.91 63.40 Brent Sep-17 - (US$/bbl) Differential Price DifferentialsPrice Aug-17 Price DifferentialsPrice Hardisty Hardisty Heavy Edmonton Edmonton Light WTI WTI -

Price Differentials (US$/bbl) DifferentialsPrice Feb-16 Jul-17 Spot Spot Crude Prices Brent-WTI Differential Brent-WTI WTI Brent WTI WTI WTI WTI Canadian Canadian Heavy Benchmark Jun-17 - Spot Prices Spot Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date 2018 9, April

May-17

WTI WTI Apr-17 Feb-15 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mar-17 -10 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 US$/bbl

US$/bbl

SOURCE:EIA. SOURCE:NRCan, EIA, Baytex. W Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 6 Feb-18 Other Aug-17 Propane Feb-17 Residual Y change

on - Aug-16 Distillate March March 2018Y - JetFuel Feb-16 March March 2017 US Products US Products Demand CDN/US$ Exchange CDN/US$ Exchange Rate Gasoline

Aug-15

Total Feb-15 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 5% 0% % -5% 25% 20% 15% 10% CDN/US$

-10% -15% -20% -25%

SOURCE:NRCan. SOURCE:EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report. U 52.5% 52.0% 51.5% 51.0% 50.5% 50.0% Mar-18 1.9870 1.9863 2.0650 Heating Oil Heating 4Q18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Heating Oil 3Q18 1.8750 1.8629 2.0410 Dec-17 Unleaded Gasoline Unleaded 2Q18 Nov-17 non-OECDDemand share Oct-17 1Q18 RBOBGasoline Sep-17 4Q17 NYMEX Prices NYMEX Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date 2018 10, April Aug-17 Total Non-OECD 3Q17

Jul-17

Global Oil Demand Global Oil Demand Jun-17

2Q17

Total OECD May-17 NYMEX Petroleum Products 1Q17 Apr-17 Oil Demand in Selected Countries Selectedin Demand Oil 4Q16 Mar-17 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0 US$/gal 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 MMbpd

110 100

SOURCE:EIA, CERI. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Report. SOURCE:Market Oil IEA

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Other 3Q18 Jan-18 NGLs 2Q18 OECD Pacific Jan-17 Other Lower48 1Q18 OECD Europe by region by by region by

Federal GOM

Jan-16 Texas 4Q17 US Oil Production OECD North America OECD OECD Commercial Stocks California Jan-15 3Q17 Alaska 0 0 500 Mbpd Mbpd 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000

SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report.

57.0%

57.5%

58.0%

58.5%

59.0%

59.5%

60.0% 60.5%

3Q18

4Q18 3Q18 Synthetic

2Q18 2Q18

NGLs

non-OPECShare of Global Supply 1Q18 Other 1Q18

4Q17

by product by

OPECSupply

3Q17 AB Bitumen

4Q17

Global Oil Supply Global Oil Supply 2Q17 Canadian Canadian Oil Production

AB L/M/H

1Q17 non-OPECSupply

3Q17 4Q16 0 Mbpd

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

100

120

MMbpd

SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report,CERI. SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. S Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 8 4Q17 3Q17

2Q17

1Q17 Canadian Stocks on Land on Stocks Canadian 4Q16 190 185 180 MMb

187.5 182.5 177.5 SOURCE:IEA Oil Market Report. Total Products M Change M - on

Distillate March 30, 2018 M 201830, March - Gasoline US Commercial Stocks February 23 February Crude 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0

MMb SOURCE:EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 9

World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

World Demand 95.0 96.2 97.8 99.3 95.4 95.7 96.8 96.8 96.5 98.0 98.3 98.4 98.0 99.0 99.7 100.4 OECD 46.4 46.9 47.4 47.7 46.8 46.1 47.3 47.4 47.0 47.0 47.6 47.9 47.3 47.1 47.9 48.3 non-OECD 48.6 49.3 50.4 51.6 48.6 49.6 49.4 49.4 49.6 50.9 50.7 50.5 50.7 51.8 51.9 52.1

World Supply 96.6 97.0 97.4 99.8 96.6 96.1 96.9 98.2 96.6 96.9 97.8 98.1 98.7 99.4 100.3 101.0 Non-OPEC 58.1 57.4 58.1 59.9 57.7 56.7 57.2 57.9 57.7 57.7 58.3 58.9 59.0 59.6 60.1 60.9 OPEC NGLs 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 OPEC Crude 27.7 28.4 27.9 -4.5 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.4 32.1 32.3 32.7 32.3 32.8 32.9 33.2 33.1

Supply - Demand1 1.6 0.8 -0.4 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 1.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.7

OECD Stocks (MMbbls) 3015 3046 3052 3060 2985 3030 3016 2970 2853 2882 2900 2925 Days Cover 64 66 65 65 64 64 63 62 60 61 61 61

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

Sustainable Production Spare Capacity vs Production Capacity Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Saudi Arabia 12.20 9.97 9.98 9.98 2.23 2.22 2.22 Iran 3.75 3.80 3.80 3.82 -0.05 -0.05 -0.07 UAE 3.14 2.87 2.85 2.80 0.27 0.29 0.34 Kuwait 2.93 2.70 2.70 2.70 0.23 0.23 0.23 Qatar 0.67 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.06 0.05 0.07 Angola 1.78 1.59 1.57 1.57 0.19 0.21 0.21 Nigeria 1.70 1.61 1.68 1.70 0.09 0.02 0.00 Libya 0.65 1.00 1.00 1.02 -0.35 -0.35 -0.37 Algeria 1.13 1.04 1.02 1.04 0.09 0.11 0.09 Equatorial Guinea 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.01 0.01 0.01 Ecuador 0.56 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.04 0.04 0.05 Venezuela 2.20 1.61 1.61 1.55 0.59 0.59 0.65 Gabon 0.23 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.03 0.02 0.03 OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.08 27.65 27.69 27.62 3.43 3.39 3.46 Iraq1 4.66 4.49 4.48 4.48 0.17 0.18 0.18 Total OPEC 35.60 32.14 32.17 32.10 3.46 3.43 3.50

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 10

Data Appendix

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 11

A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78 2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80 -0.98 2017 50.29 50.27 50.17 51.80 -0.44 1Q 2017 52.90 52.44 52.19 54.65 -0.80 2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66 -0.44 3Q 2017 45.89 46.22 46.87 48.05 -0.20 4Q 2017 52.90 52.67 51.53 52.86 -0.33 1Q 2018 61.16 60.98 60.80 61.15 0.06 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.6% 16.3% 16.5% 11.9% Apr-17 47.34 48.11 51.12 52.81 -0.50 May-17 50.27 51.04 50.72 52.33 -0.46 Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84 -0.35 Jul-17 43.23 44.06 47.11 48.32 -0.23 Aug-17 46.79 46.77 45.12 46.35 -0.21 Sep-17 47.64 47.84 48.40 49.46 -0.15 Oct-17 50.41 49.93 48.34 49.99 -0.46 Nov-17 51.47 51.60 51.17 52.44 -0.31 Dec-17 56.83 56.49 55.10 56.14 -0.21 Jan-18 58.09 57.57 57.42 58.07 -0.05 Feb-18 63.49 63.60 61.97 62.41 0.03 Mar-18 61.90 61.75 63.01 62.96 0.20 Apr-18 63.40 62.60 61.97 62.11 0.07 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.9% 30.1% 21.2% 17.6%

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5 2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2 -1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7 -1.6 2017 167.1 165.3 161.4 154.8 -0.2 166.7 166.5 164.0 170.7 -0.6 1Q 2017 157.3 157.0 155.9 168.2 -8.6 164.6 165.0 164.9 172.9 -1.4 2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5 -0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1 -0.6 3Q 2017 178.7 170.2 157.2 137.2 5.1 162.9 159.4 152.8 159.6 -0.5 4Q 2017 170.5 171.5 169.5 158.3 3.2 186.3 187.6 183.7 188.1 0.2 1Q 2018 182.2 183.4 178.4 187.3 -6.6 202.0 203.1 198.9 202.1 0.4 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.8% 16.9% 14.4% 11.4% 22.7% 23.1% 20.6% 16.9% Apr-17 170.0 168.4 162.9 157.3 -1.6 157.4 155.8 153.6 161.1 -0.7 May-17 154.8 156.3 168.1 160.0 -0.1 150.4 151.6 159.0 166.4 -0.7 Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8 -0.6 Jul-17 151.5 149.5 148.2 132.1 0.8 147.6 145.2 142.6 150.4 -0.8 Aug-17 170.6 167.6 157.1 137.2 2.4 165.2 163.2 152.6 159.6 -0.5 Sep-17 214.0 193.6 166.3 142.2 12.0 175.8 169.9 163.1 168.9 -0.1 Oct-17 160.7 163.1 166.3 150.5 5.5 181.2 183.0 179.1 182.5 0.9 Nov-17 178.0 177.1 165.2 154.7 2.8 188.5 187.7 180.2 185.1 0.1 Dec-17 172.8 174.4 177.1 169.8 1.3 189.3 192.2 191.8 196.8 -0.3 Jan-18 179.9 179.5 172.1 180.7 -1.2 207.6 205.6 194.9 198.2 0.0 Feb-18 190.8 191.3 185.9 194.2 -0.7 206.9 208.2 207.8 209.7 0.9 Mar-18 175.8 179.6 177.3 186.9 -18.1 191.4 195.4 194.0 198.3 0.3 Apr-18 201.8 201.5 194.9 188.1 -1.1 202.8 202.2 193.2 199.2 -0.3 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 18.7% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 28.8% 29.7% 25.8% 23.6%

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average contract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 12 A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas 2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24 2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05 2017 52.68 53.20 53.40 54.25 54.57 53.35 47.69 51.68 50.07 54.67 54.64 49.07 4Q 2016 47.83 48.33 48.81 49.48 49.41 48.12 42.53 46.70 45.45 49.79 49.98 45.20 1Q 2017 52.20 53.11 53.61 53.75 53.74 52.34 45.99 51.40 48.52 54.44 54.04 50.06 2Q 2017 48.72 49.89 49.96 49.82 49.80 48.70 44.60 47.94 46.24 51.29 50.24 45.52 3Q 2017 50.01 50.45 50.65 52.08 52.69 51.34 45.97 49.04 47.99 52.96 52.30 46.36 4Q 2017 59.77 59.35 59.37 61.35 62.04 61.03 54.20 58.34 57.55 60.00 61.97 54.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 25.0% 22.8% 21.6% 24.0% 25.6% 26.8% 27.4% 24.9% 26.6% 20.5% 24.0% 20.2% Feb-17 53.63 54.41 55.12 55.06 55.10 53.67 47.03 52.85 50.08 56.09 55.24 51.19 Mar-17 50.68 51.21 51.71 51.60 51.50 49.94 44.14 49.87 46.83 52.26 51.91 48.35 Apr-17 51.64 52.31 52.82 52.59 52.57 51.55 46.15 50.81 48.70 53.81 53.02 47.95 May-17 49.30 50.97 50.57 50.45 50.43 49.04 45.16 48.65 46.91 51.85 50.77 45.96 Jun-17 45.21 46.38 46.50 46.42 46.40 45.52 42.49 44.37 43.11 48.21 46.92 42.65 Jul-17 47.12 47.59 47.63 48.51 48.63 47.82 43.41 46.19 45.21 50.75 48.66 43.96 Aug-17 49.63 50.24 50.37 51.66 52.30 51.30 45.38 48.70 47.45 52.92 51.69 45.91 Sep-17 53.29 53.51 53.95 56.07 57.15 54.89 49.13 52.23 51.30 55.20 56.55 49.20 Oct-17 55.73 55.63 55.63 57.28 57.85 56.81 50.70 54.50 53.77 56.08 57.97 50.55 Nov-17 61.08 60.81 60.84 62.63 63.28 62.53 55.86 59.58 59.23 61.35 63.29 55.50 Dec-17 62.50 61.61 61.63 64.14 64.98 63.75 56.04 60.94 59.66 62.57 64.64 56.95 Jan-18 67.42 66.15 66.42 69.13 69.99 68.69 59.14 65.74 63.53 67.57 69.92 60.91 Feb-18 64.03 62.69 63.00 65.16 65.81 63.01 57.68 62.14 60.28 64.83 66.02 58.15 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.4% 15.2% 14.3% 18.3% 19.4% 17.4% 22.6% 17.6% 20.4% 15.6% 19.5% 13.6%

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy Okla. Kans. Mich. Wyo. CDN CDN ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Sw. Sw. So. Sw. Sweet2 Heavy3 2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71 2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85 2017 44.08 55.37 47.12 48.40 43.40 42.50 48.40 47.48 40.40 48.22 48.26 39.25 4Q 2016 39.14 49.81 41.23 46.08 41.08 39.83 46.08 45.08 38.08 45.83 45.53 34.29 1Q 2017 43.48 53.40 45.50 48.67 43.67 42.42 48.67 47.67 40.67 48.44 48.95 38.22 2Q 2017 44.34 49.43 42.43 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.83 36.50 44.64 45.78 42.43 3Q 2017 41.90 54.02 45.38 46.17 41.17 41.33 46.17 45.08 38.17 45.81 45.57 37.70 4Q 2017 46.58 64.63 55.15 54.25 49.25 48.00 54.25 53.33 46.25 54.01 52.65 38.35 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.0% 29.8% 33.8% 17.7% 19.9% 20.5% 17.7% 18.3% 21.4% 17.8% 15.6% 11.9% Feb-17 46.15 54.54 46.70 50.00 45.00 43.75 50.00 48.75 42.00 49.58 50.33 39.53 Mar-17 46.15 52.06 44.35 47.00 42.00 40.75 47.00 46.00 39.00 46.85 47.03 36.34 Apr-17 45.79 49.79 43.15 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 46.61 40.81 May-17 43.22 51.01 43.80 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 46.05 48.43 51.35 Jun-17 44.02 47.50 40.35 41.50 36.50 35.25 41.50 41.50 33.50 42.29 42.20 34.91 Jul-17 42.79 51.92 44.00 46.25 41.25 44.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 45.96 44.10 36.96 Aug-17 41.46 52.25 43.25 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 42.75 36.00 43.54 45.01 37.95 Sep-17 41.46 57.88 48.90 48.25 43.25 42.25 48.25 47.25 40.25 47.92 47.63 38.18 Oct-17 43.11 60.36 51.70 50.25 45.25 44.00 50.25 49.50 42.25 50.15 50.34 39.87 Nov-17 47.18 65.66 55.90 55.50 50.50 49.25 55.50 54.50 47.50 55.20 55.17 41.47 Dec-17 49.44 67.88 57.85 57.00 52.00 50.75 57.00 56.00 49.00 56.67 52.41 33.74 Jan-18 55.67 73.10 62.15 62.75 57.75 56.50 62.75 61.75 54.75 62.39 56.41 37.74 Feb-18 47.18 69.26 58.90 60.00 55.00 53.75 60.00 59.00 52.00 59.80 56.21 35.37 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.2% 27.0% 26.1% 20.0% 22.2% 22.9% 20.0% 21.0% 23.8% 20.6% 11.7% -10.5%

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 13

A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour CDN CDN Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. Sweet1 Heavy2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff. 2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25 2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08 -1.25 2017 52.68 51.04 1.63 54.67 47.73 6.94 48.26 39.25 9.01 42.50 43.40 -0.90 4Q 2016 47.83 45.64 2.19 49.79 43.36 6.43 45.53 34.29 11.24 39.83 41.08 -1.25 1Q 2017 52.20 50.46 1.74 54.44 45.42 9.03 48.95 38.22 10.74 42.42 43.67 -1.25 2Q 2017 48.72 47.18 1.54 51.29 44.33 6.96 45.78 42.43 3.35 38.25 39.50 -1.25 3Q 2017 50.01 48.70 1.32 52.96 47.24 5.71 45.57 37.70 7.87 41.33 41.17 0.17 4Q 2017 59.77 57.83 1.94 60.00 53.93 6.07 52.65 38.35 14.30 48.00 49.25 -1.25 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 25.0% 26.7% 20.5% 24.4% 15.6% 11.9% 20.5% 19.9% Feb-17 53.63 51.97 1.66 56.09 46.55 9.54 50.33 39.53 10.79 43.75 45.00 -1.25 Mar-17 50.68 48.86 1.82 52.26 43.12 9.14 47.03 36.34 10.69 40.75 42.00 -1.25 Apr-17 51.64 49.97 1.67 53.81 44.90 8.91 46.61 40.81 5.80 39.50 40.75 -1.25 May-17 49.30 47.92 1.38 51.85 45.60 6.25 48.43 51.35 -2.92 40.00 41.25 -1.25 Jun-17 45.21 43.64 1.57 48.21 42.50 5.71 42.20 34.91 7.29 35.25 36.50 -1.25 Jul-17 47.12 45.76 1.36 50.75 45.15 5.60 44.10 36.96 7.14 44.00 41.25 2.75 Aug-17 49.63 48.55 1.08 52.92 46.91 6.01 45.01 37.95 7.06 37.75 39.00 -1.25 Sep-17 53.29 51.78 1.51 55.20 49.67 5.53 47.63 38.18 9.45 42.25 43.25 -1.00 Oct-17 55.73 53.99 1.74 56.08 50.26 5.82 50.34 39.87 10.47 44.00 45.25 -1.25 Nov-17 61.08 59.03 2.05 61.35 55.48 5.87 55.17 41.47 13.70 49.25 50.50 -1.25 Dec-17 62.50 60.47 2.03 62.57 56.04 6.53 52.41 33.74 18.67 50.75 52.00 -1.25 Jan-18 67.42 65.24 2.18 67.57 59.94 7.63 56.41 37.74 18.68 56.50 57.75 -1.25 Feb-18 64.03 61.60 2.43 64.83 56.69 8.14 56.21 35.37 20.84 53.75 55.00 -1.25 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.4% 18.5% 15.6% 21.8% 11.7% -10.5% 22.9% 22.2% Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Spot Prices Differentials WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16 2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68 -1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59 2017 50.90 54.23 53.19 53.34 52.51 -3.95 -2.90 -3.05 -2.23 4Q 2016 49.23 49.35 48.27 47.99 47.59 3.55 4.63 4.91 5.32 1Q 2017 51.70 53.66 53.01 52.25 52.03 -4.21 -3.56 -2.80 -2.58 2Q 2017 48.11 49.58 49.71 48.46 48.59 -3.69 -3.82 -2.57 -2.71 3Q 2017 48.16 52.06 50.46 51.34 49.99 0.84 2.44 1.56 2.91 4Q 2017 55.35 61.35 59.34 61.03 59.43 -0.19 1.82 0.13 1.73 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.4% 24.3% 22.9% 27.2% 24.9% Feb-17 53.40 55.06 54.41 53.67 53.37 -7.72 -7.07 -6.33 -6.03 Mar-17 49.58 51.60 51.21 49.94 50.32 -1.33 -0.94 0.33 -0.05 Apr-17 51.06 52.46 52.31 51.41 51.37 -1.73 -1.58 -0.68 -0.64 May-17 48.50 50.42 50.58 49.01 49.20 -7.19 -7.35 -5.78 -5.97 Jun-17 45.17 46.42 46.48 45.52 45.21 0.37 0.31 1.27 1.58 Jul-17 46.65 48.51 47.59 47.82 46.93 -0.87 0.05 -0.18 0.71 Aug-17 48.03 51.64 50.24 51.29 49.60 -1.23 0.17 -0.88 0.81 Sep-17 49.83 56.07 53.71 54.89 53.44 -4.60 -2.24 -3.42 -1.97 Oct-17 51.57 57.28 55.60 56.81 55.50 -0.45 1.23 0.02 1.33 Nov-17 56.54 62.63 60.81 62.53 60.74 -4.54 -2.72 -4.44 -2.65 Dec-17 57.94 64.14 61.61 63.75 62.06 -0.65 1.88 -0.26 1.43 Jan-18 63.70 69.13 66.15 68.69 66.85 -7.23 -4.25 -6.79 -4.95 Feb-18 62.15 65.16 62.69 63.01 63.48 -1.76 0.71 0.39 -0.08 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.4% 18.3% 15.2% 17.4% 18.9%

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 14 A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55 2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63 2017 68.09 46.25 65.59 66.37 64.60 45.53 68.01 65.73 49.97 4Q 2016 60.99 41.20 59.92 58.98 60.01 39.77 62.83 60.27 45.42 1Q 2017 65.10 44.58 63.18 63.48 63.31 43.24 67.71 64.85 49.04 2Q 2017 65.69 42.50 58.71 62.74 59.21 41.85 63.82 61.02 46.69 3Q 2017 69.74 45.40 66.61 65.49 63.39 45.78 66.52 64.27 48.45 4Q 2017 71.65 52.28 73.48 73.44 72.12 51.09 73.65 72.50 55.45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.5% 26.9% 22.6% 24.5% 20.2% 28.5% 17.2% 20.3% 22.1% Feb-17 65.04 45.94 65.58 66.04 65.20 44.45 69.90 66.76 49.87 Mar-17 63.91 42.42 60.75 60.60 61.09 41.16 64.28 62.94 46.38 Apr-17 69.66 43.68 63.27 65.91 62.88 42.99 67.66 64.68 48.11 May-17 66.12 42.98 59.04 62.86 59.80 41.88 64.40 61.19 46.76 Jun-17 61.83 41.01 54.46 60.04 55.65 40.90 59.78 57.54 45.33 Jul-17 65.79 43.89 60.07 60.78 59.09 43.52 61.76 61.05 46.32 Aug-17 70.77 44.85 66.44 65.64 62.25 45.40 67.51 63.51 47.84 Sep-17 72.51 47.56 73.33 70.04 68.89 48.44 70.43 68.49 51.37 Oct-17 69.29 48.32 69.53 66.56 68.65 48.79 70.04 68.61 52.56 Nov-17 73.70 54.14 73.92 73.35 74.13 53.27 75.59 73.14 57.59 Dec-17 71.95 54.39 76.99 80.40 73.59 51.21 75.32 75.75 56.20 Jan-18 78.46 56.92 82.70 85.60 78.94 54.41 78.61 81.70 58.85 Feb-18 75.18 54.15 78.48 82.80 72.45 52.04 77.02 77.95 56.56 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.6% 17.9% 19.7% 25.4% 11.1% 17.1% 10.2% 16.8% 13.4% Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill. 2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03 2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67 2017 163.95 157.98 165.78 160.43 156.14 162.23 173.10 170.64 4Q 2016 153.93 147.70 155.47 145.73 143.47 152.23 151.77 160.83 1Q 2017 155.30 153.50 159.17 155.30 150.20 156.77 169.60 163.47 2Q 2017 153.20 143.63 150.57 152.40 140.57 147.53 171.40 154.87 3Q 2017 170.57 155.00 164.77 163.63 159.27 162.13 176.63 172.73 4Q 2017 176.73 179.77 188.63 170.37 174.53 182.47 174.77 191.50 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.8% 21.7% 21.3% 16.9% 21.7% 19.9% 15.2% 19.1% Feb-17 154.70 156.20 162.40 154.30 154.70 160.80 175.60 167.00 Mar-17 149.20 149.20 152.80 152.30 144.50 150.20 172.00 156.30 Apr-17 161.10 152.30 158.60 162.10 151.00 155.80 177.70 163.90 May-17 154.00 145.40 151.40 151.90 141.20 148.20 174.60 154.70 Jun-17 144.50 133.20 141.70 143.20 129.50 138.60 161.90 146.00 Jul-17 156.20 142.30 152.10 151.80 141.70 148.60 166.90 157.00 Aug-17 168.80 151.90 163.10 163.80 156.10 160.10 180.70 169.70 Sep-17 186.70 170.80 179.10 175.30 180.00 177.70 182.30 191.50 Oct-17 171.50 170.70 179.90 165.20 165.90 175.60 176.10 186.30 Nov-17 183.00 182.30 191.60 175.70 176.00 185.10 183.60 197.50 Dec-17 175.70 186.30 194.40 170.20 181.70 186.70 164.60 190.70 Jan-18 189.90 201.70 207.40 185.70 195.20 199.60 194.40 205.60 Feb-18 181.70 185.30 193.70 176.50 184.90 189.50 187.70 196.30 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.5% 18.6% 19.3% 14.4% 19.5% 17.8% 6.9% 17.5%

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 15

B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3 Demand 2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7 2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.1 12.7 4.7 38.5 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.1 2015 24.6 13.8 8.1 46.4 22.5 12.4 4.6 39.5 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.0 2016 24.7 14.0 8.1 46.9 23.1 11.9 4.7 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.2 2017 24.9 14.4 8.2 47.4 24.0 11.5 4.7 40.3 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.8 4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.5 23.0 12.3 4.7 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.7 1Q 2016 24.6 13.6 8.6 46.8 23.2 11.4 4.5 39.1 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.4 2Q 2016 24.5 13.9 7.7 46.1 23.4 12.0 4.5 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.7 3Q 2016 25.1 14.4 7.8 47.3 22.7 12.3 4.9 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8 4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.4 47.4 23.3 11.6 4.8 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8 1Q 2017 24.5 13.9 8.6 47.0 23.9 11.0 4.5 39.5 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.5 2Q 2017 25.0 14.3 7.8 47.0 24.4 11.7 4.7 40.9 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.0 3Q 2017 25.0 14.8 7.9 47.6 23.7 11.9 4.9 40.6 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.3 4Q 2017 25.1 14.4 8.4 47.9 24.4 11.2 4.8 40.5 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.4

Supply 2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2 2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.6 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.6 2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 7.8 14.1 30.8 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.5 2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.6 14.2 30.5 30.1 7.2 39.6 97.0 2017 20.2 3.5 0.4 25.3 7.4 7.5 14.4 30.4 29.7 7.4 39.2 97.4

4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.9 7.9 14.1 30.9 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4 1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.3 7.8 7.4 14.3 30.5 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.6 2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.1 7.6 7.4 14.1 30.2 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.1 3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.3 7.4 7.7 14.0 30.2 30.6 7.7 39.5 96.9 4Q 2016 19.7 3.6 0.4 25.0 7.4 7.7 14.6 30.7 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.2 1Q 2017 19.9 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.4 7.6 14.4 30.5 29.6 7.2 38.9 96.6 2Q 2017 19.8 3.5 0.4 24.8 7.3 7.5 14.3 30.2 29.7 7.3 39.2 96.9 3Q 2017 20.2 3.4 0.4 25.2 7.2 7.5 14.3 30.1 29.7 7.7 39.6 97.8 4Q 2017 21.1 3.4 0.4 26.1 7.2 7.6 14.4 30.3 29.6 7.4 39.2 98.1

Balance 2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.0 -4.3 9.3 -7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5 2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -13.4 -5.1 9.2 -8.3 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.5 2015 -4.6 -10.3 -7.6 -21.3 -14.6 -4.6 9.5 -8.7 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.5 2016 -5.2 -10.5 -7.7 -22.3 -15.5 -4.3 9.5 -9.2 24.1 3.7 30.0 0.8 2017 -4.7 -10.9 -7.8 -22.1 -16.6 -4.0 9.7 -9.9 23.4 3.7 29.2 -0.4 4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.1 -15.1 -4.4 9.4 -9.1 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.7 1Q 2016 -4.7 -10.0 -8.2 -21.5 -15.4 -4.0 9.8 -8.5 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.2 2Q 2016 -5.5 -10.5 -7.3 -22.0 -15.8 -4.6 9.6 -9.7 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.4 3Q 2016 -5.8 -11.1 -7.4 -23.0 -15.3 -4.6 9.1 -9.7 24.6 4.2 29.9 0.1 4Q 2016 -5.1 -10.6 -8.0 -22.4 -15.9 -3.9 9.8 -8.9 24.8 3.7 30.4 1.4 1Q 2017 -4.6 -10.2 -8.2 -21.8 -16.5 -3.4 9.9 -9.0 23.4 3.5 28.9 0.1 2Q 2017 -5.2 -10.8 -7.4 -22.2 -17.1 -4.2 9.6 -10.7 23.5 3.7 29.2 -1.1 3Q 2017 -4.8 -11.4 -7.5 -22.4 -16.5 -4.4 9.4 -10.5 23.5 4.0 29.6 -0.5 4Q 2017 -4.0 -11.0 -8.0 -21.8 -17.2 -3.6 9.6 -10.2 23.4 3.7 29.2 -0.3

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 16 B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08 2016 19.48 3.52 0.43 23.42 7.57 7.55 14.24 29.34 30.13 7.23 39.59 92.35 2017 20.25 3.48 0.39 24.12 7.33 7.63 14.36 29.32 29.68 7.41 39.22 92.66 4Q 2016 19.65 3.64 0.41 23.70 7.48 7.95 14.52 29.96 30.85 7.26 40.04 93.70 1Q 2017 19.96 3.66 0.39 24.00 7.50 7.57 14.43 29.51 29.61 7.16 38.93 92.44 2Q 2017 19.76 3.49 0.40 23.65 7.36 7.62 14.36 29.34 29.72 7.33 39.20 92.19 3Q 2017 20.17 3.37 0.41 23.95 7.27 7.65 14.26 29.19 29.72 7.69 39.58 92.72 4Q 2017 21.11 3.42 0.38 24.90 7.26 7.67 14.37 29.31 29.65 7.41 39.17 93.38 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.4% -6.0% -7.3% 5.1% -2.9% -3.5% -1.0% -2.2% -3.9% 2.0% -2.2% -0.3% Feb-17 20.02 3.66 0.38 24.06 7.50 7.92 14.46 29.89 29.61 7.20 38.80 92.75 Mar-17 19.96 3.73 0.39 24.08 7.49 7.67 14.39 29.55 29.56 6.93 38.47 92.10 Apr-17 19.55 3.62 0.39 23.56 7.39 7.46 14.36 29.20 29.69 6.98 38.84 91.60 May-17 19.68 3.47 0.39 23.54 7.37 7.63 14.28 29.28 29.68 7.35 39.14 91.96 Jun-17 19.95 3.37 0.41 23.73 7.52 7.65 14.33 29.50 29.81 7.56 39.51 92.74 Jul-17 20.25 3.48 0.42 24.14 7.36 7.67 14.36 29.40 29.78 7.88 39.84 93.38 Aug-17 19.87 3.37 0.42 23.66 7.28 7.63 14.19 29.10 29.75 7.65 39.58 92.34 Sep-17 20.05 3.25 0.41 23.72 7.25 7.72 14.28 29.26 29.76 7.60 39.53 92.51 Oct-17 20.09 3.50 0.41 24.01 7.24 7.72 14.29 29.26 29.69 7.52 39.42 92.69 Nov-17 20.45 3.52 0.42 24.38 7.20 7.70 14.36 29.26 29.64 7.53 39.29 92.93 Dec-17 21.15 3.27 0.37 24.78 7.22 7.73 14.44 29.39 29.65 7.25 38.99 93.16 Jan-18 21.16 3.61 0.41 25.18 7.25 7.70 14.43 29.39 29.68 7.34 39.08 93.65 Feb-18 21.32 3.58 0.41 25.31 7.16 7.65 14.44 29.24 29.63 7.32 39.01 93.56 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.5% -2.2% 7.9% 5.2% -4.5% -3.4% -0.1% -2.2% 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.9% R/P Ratio2 29.2 10.0 27.4 26.5 15.7 22.0 28.0 23.4 74.2 150.5 84.6 50.0

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 2017 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853 4Q 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 1Q 2017 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030 2Q 2017 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016 3Q 2017 625 748 1,572 338 555 965 198 172 433 1,161 1,475 2,970 4Q 2017 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.3% -5.1% -6.3% -2.9% -3.3% -2.9% -1.4% 1.7% -0.6% -6.7% -3.7% -4.4% Jan-17 665 781 1,623 355 597 1,022 193 166 421 1,212 1,544 3,067 Feb-17 683 764 1,619 360 592 1,025 185 165 412 1,228 1,521 3,056 Mar-17 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030 Apr-17 676 752 1,608 353 599 1,026 193 165 420 1,223 1,516 3,054 May-17 671 762 1,619 359 572 1,006 198 170 432 1,228 1,504 3,057 Jun-17 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016 Jul-17 646 755 1,591 364 565 1,004 197 176 437 1,206 1,495 3,031 Aug-17 625 756 1,581 346 573 990 195 182 443 1,166 1,511 3,014 Sep-17 625 748 1,572 338 555 965 198 172 433 1,161 1,475 2,970 Oct-17 617 727 1,542 335 540 948 188 183 435 1,140 1,450 2,926 Nov-17 610 723 1,524 347 531 953 188 176 427 1,145 1,430 2,903 Dec-17 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853 Jan-18 584 718 1,488 344 561 975 187 161 408 1,114 1,439 2,871 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.3% -8.1% -8.3% -3.1% -6.1% -4.6% -2.8% -3.4% -3.2% -8.1% -6.8% -6.4%

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 17

B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Persian Gulf Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12 Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total1 Iraq2

2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00 2016 10.42 3.55 3.05 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.38 4.42 2017 9.96 3.80 2.93 2.71 0.61 1.64 1.53 0.83 1.05 1.97 0.53 0.20 27.88 4.47 4Q 2016 10.55 3.81 3.13 2.86 0.64 1.61 1.46 0.57 1.12 2.12 0.54 0.22 28.63 4.64 1Q 2017 9.88 3.78 2.96 2.71 0.60 1.64 1.39 0.66 1.05 2.08 0.52 0.20 27.61 4.46 2Q 2017 9.97 3.77 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.64 1.49 0.71 1.06 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.81 4.50 3Q 2017 9.99 3.83 2.94 2.70 0.60 1.67 1.62 0.94 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.20 28.20 4.48 4Q 2017 9.99 3.81 2.90 2.70 0.61 1.62 1.60 1.00 1.02 1.75 0.53 0.21 27.86 4.45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.3% 0.0% -7.3% -5.6% -4.7% 0.6% 9.6% 75.4% -8.9% -17.5% -1.9% -4.5% -2.7% -4.1% Feb-17 9.98 3.81 2.93 2.71 0.59 1.65 1.45 0.67 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.62 4.45 Mar-17 9.93 3.79 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.64 1.30 0.61 1.05 2.03 0.52 0.20 27.29 4.43 Apr-17 9.96 3.75 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.38 0.55 1.06 2.02 0.53 0.20 27.49 4.46 May-17 9.92 3.78 2.93 2.72 0.63 1.61 1.53 0.74 1.06 2.00 0.53 0.20 27.78 4.48 Jun-17 10.05 3.79 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.57 0.84 1.06 2.04 0.53 0.20 28.11 4.50 Jul-17 10.03 3.81 2.94 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.64 1.01 1.07 2.03 0.54 0.22 28.40 4.50 Aug-17 9.96 3.84 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.66 0.88 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.18 28.15 4.49 Sep-17 9.97 3.84 2.93 2.71 0.58 1.66 1.61 0.92 1.06 1.94 0.54 0.19 28.08 4.49 Oct-17 10.05 3.78 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.58 0.99 1.00 1.89 0.53 0.21 28.09 4.40 Nov-17 9.97 3.80 2.90 2.71 0.61 1.62 1.64 0.97 1.01 1.84 0.54 0.20 27.94 4.42 Dec-17 9.97 3.80 2.87 2.70 0.61 1.59 1.61 1.00 1.04 1.61 0.52 0.20 27.65 4.49 Jan-18 9.98 3.80 2.85 2.70 0.62 1.57 1.68 1.00 1.02 1.61 0.52 0.21 27.69 4.48 Feb-18 9.98 3.82 2.80 2.70 0.60 1.57 1.70 1.02 1.04 1.55 0.51 0.20 27.62 4.48 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 0.3% -4.4% -0.4% 1.7% -4.8% 17.2% 52.2% -1.0% -24.4% -3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2015 19.1 87.6 5.65 12.1 84.6 7.28 6.7 90.7 0.62 37.9 86.0 2016 18.9 85.6 4.72 11.9 85.2 4.28 6.9 92.5 0.18 37.7 85.5 2017 19.3 87.3 6.36 12.3 87.5 5.95 7.0 94.4 1.72 38.6 87.5 4Q 2016 18.6 84.0 5.13 12.3 88.0 5.14 6.9 92.8 1.1 37.8 85.7 1Q 2017 18.8 85.0 5.38 12.0 85.6 4.87 7.2 97.4 1.0 38.0 86.2 2Q 2017 20.0 90.3 6.09 12.0 85.6 6.17 6.6 89.2 1.2 38.6 87.5 3Q 2017 19.2 87.0 9.15 12.7 90.3 7.59 7.0 94.5 3.0 38.9 88.2 4Q 2017 19.2 86.9 4.80 12.4 88.5 5.16 7.2 96.4 1.73 38.8 87.9 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.5% -6.5% 0.6% 0.4% 3.9% 59.0% 2.6% Jan-17 19.0 85.8 6.28 12.3 87.7 4.85 7.4 100.0 1.4 38.7 87.7 Feb-17 18.4 83.3 4.96 11.8 84.0 5.44 7.4 99.6 1.1 37.6 85.2 Mar-17 19.0 85.8 4.90 11.9 85.1 4.32 6.9 92.7 0.7 37.8 85.6 Apr-17 19.8 89.5 6.10 12.1 86.6 6.29 6.8 92.2 1.0 38.8 87.9 May-17 20.1 90.9 6.00 11.8 84.4 5.64 6.7 89.9 0.5 38.6 87.5 Jun-17 20.0 90.5 6.17 12.0 85.8 6.57 6.4 85.6 2.1 38.4 87.1 Jul-17 20.0 90.5 7.98 12.6 89.5 6.80 7.1 95.1 2.6 39.6 89.8 Aug-17 19.7 89.3 9.56 12.8 91.2 7.79 7.2 96.7 2.9 39.7 90.0 Sep-17 18.0 81.3 9.92 12.6 90.1 8.17 6.8 91.6 3.4 37.4 84.8 Oct-17 18.5 83.5 5.89 12.4 88.1 5.92 6.8 92.2 2.1 37.7 85.4 Nov-17 19.4 87.5 5.19 12.4 88.1 5.77 7.2 96.6 1.6 38.9 88.2 Dec-17 19.8 89.7 3.32 12.5 89.3 3.80 7.5 100.5 1.5 39.8 90.3 Jan-18 19.2 86.8 3.63 12.3 88.0 3.49 7.3 98.8 0.5 38.9 88.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.2% -42.2% 0.4% -28% -1.2% -60.6% 0.5%

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 18 C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

United States1 East Mid-West Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38 2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42 -4.94 3.63 5.13 -1.50 2017 15.35 19.87 3.73 -0.36 0.56 5.65 -5.10 3.80 5.07 -1.27 4Q 2016 14.62 19.75 4.69 -0.18 0.50 5.41 -4.91 3.59 5.17 -1.59 1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55 -5.03 3.62 5.03 -1.41 2Q 2017 15.12 20.01 4.25 -0.21 0.54 5.57 -5.03 3.70 5.06 -1.36 3Q 2017 15.29 19.92 3.82 -0.33 0.56 5.65 -5.09 3.83 5.02 -1.20 4Q 2017 16.21 20.06 2.59 -0.90 0.61 5.85 -5.25 4.04 5.17 -1.13 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.9% 1.5% -44.8% 21.3% 8.1% 12.6% -0.1% Jan-17 14.49 19.23 5.01 0.71 0.51 5.33 -4.82 3.52 4.97 -1.45 Feb-17 14.83 19.19 3.61 -0.12 0.51 5.43 -4.92 3.66 5.00 -1.34 Mar-17 15.02 20.03 4.17 -0.54 0.52 5.88 -5.36 3.68 5.12 -1.44 Apr-17 14.98 19.53 4.18 0.03 0.53 5.43 -4.91 3.66 4.87 -1.21 May-17 15.19 20.02 4.49 0.17 0.55 5.49 -4.94 3.71 5.11 -1.40 Jun-17 15.19 20.49 4.09 -0.82 0.56 5.79 -5.23 3.74 5.20 -1.46 Jul-17 15.27 20.02 3.62 -0.36 0.56 5.63 -5.07 3.74 4.85 -1.11 Aug-17 15.23 20.16 4.41 -0.38 0.56 5.87 -5.31 3.91 5.23 -1.32 Sep-17 15.37 19.58 3.44 -0.26 0.56 5.45 -4.89 3.83 4.98 -1.15 Oct-17 15.89 19.81 2.50 -1.13 0.59 5.70 -5.11 4.00 5.20 -1.20 Nov-17 16.50 20.28 2.63 -0.69 0.62 5.92 -5.30 4.10 5.33 -1.23 Dec-17 16.24 20.08 2.64 -0.89 0.61 5.94 -5.33 4.02 4.97 -0.95 Jan-18 16.12 20.46 3.66 -0.50 0.59 6.24 -5.66 4.00 5.09 -1.09 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.2% 6.4% -26.9% 14.9% 17.2% 13.6% 2.4% % of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.6% 30.5% 24.8% 24.9%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59 2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99 -1.68 2017 8.59 5.36 3.23 1.14 0.71 0.43 1.27 3.08 -1.81 4Q 2016 8.16 5.53 2.63 1.06 0.71 0.35 1.31 2.93 -1.62 1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92 -1.62 2Q 2017 8.49 5.53 2.96 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.28 3.14 -1.86 3Q 2017 8.52 5.29 3.23 1.17 0.74 0.43 1.22 3.22 -2.00 4Q 2017 9.03 5.30 3.73 1.25 0.69 0.56 1.29 3.04 -1.76 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.6% -4.1% 18.0% -2.7% -1.6% 4.0% Jan-17 8.14 5.41 2.73 1.01 0.67 0.34 1.31 2.86 -1.55 Feb-17 8.33 5.21 3.12 1.05 0.69 0.35 1.29 2.86 -1.57 Mar-17 8.45 5.28 3.17 1.07 0.72 0.35 1.31 3.04 -1.74 Apr-17 8.40 5.42 2.98 1.08 0.69 0.40 1.32 3.12 -1.80 May-17 8.55 5.62 2.93 1.11 0.73 0.38 1.28 3.08 -1.80 Jun-17 8.53 5.56 2.97 1.11 0.74 0.37 1.24 3.21 -1.96 Jul-17 8.69 5.56 3.12 1.12 0.78 0.35 1.17 3.20 -2.03 Aug-17 8.38 4.97 3.41 1.17 0.77 0.40 1.22 3.32 -2.10 Sep-17 8.49 5.33 3.16 1.21 0.67 0.54 1.27 3.15 -1.88 Oct-17 8.78 5.02 3.77 1.23 0.72 0.51 1.28 3.16 -1.88 Nov-17 9.21 5.45 3.76 1.27 0.68 0.59 1.30 2.90 -1.61 Dec-17 9.09 5.44 3.65 1.24 0.67 0.57 1.29 3.07 -1.78 Jan-18 8.98 5.49 3.49 1.26 0.72 0.55 1.29 2.93 -1.64 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.3% 1.5% 24.8% 6.9% -1.9% 2.3% % of Total2 55.7% 26.8% 7.8% 3.5% 8.0% 14.3%

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non- conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 19

C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2 2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39 2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63 2017 9.32 1.68 3.94 0.36 17.28 2.49 19.87 4Q 2016 9.22 1.63 4.01 0.35 17.19 2.59 19.75 1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49 2Q 2017 9.53 1.68 3.91 0.37 17.56 2.34 20.01 3Q 2017 9.56 1.71 3.87 0.30 17.59 2.23 19.92 4Q 2017 9.23 1.73 4.02 0.40 17.29 2.59 20.06 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.1% 6.4% 0.2% 13.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% Jan-17 8.50 1.59 3.78 0.46 16.20 3.04 19.23 Feb-17 8.99 1.53 3.91 0.27 16.51 2.71 19.19 Mar-17 9.35 1.67 4.15 0.36 17.33 2.62 20.03 Apr-17 9.25 1.62 3.79 0.32 16.96 2.48 19.53 May-17 9.59 1.67 3.97 0.37 17.67 2.40 20.02 Jun-17 9.77 1.76 3.97 0.42 18.05 2.13 20.49 Jul-17 9.57 1.73 3.71 0.27 17.53 2.20 20.02 Aug-17 9.77 1.77 3.99 0.34 18.03 2.15 20.16 Sep-17 9.33 1.64 3.92 0.31 17.22 2.35 19.58 Oct-17 9.35 1.71 3.97 0.36 17.25 2.23 19.81 Nov-17 9.14 1.72 4.17 0.43 17.47 2.50 20.28 Dec-17 9.20 1.76 3.93 0.39 17.15 3.05 20.08 Jan-18 8.74 1.59 4.39 0.34 16.91 3.12 20.46 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.8% -0.4% 16.2% -26.1% 4.4% 2.6% 6.4%

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3 2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 2017 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292 4Q 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 2Q 2017 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306 3Q 2017 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286 4Q 2017 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.1% -5.9% -7.3% -2.4% 4.1% -6.7% -8.1% -13.9% -3.6% -12.0% -29.3% -11.5% Jan-17 211 330 1,326 44 140 2,053 1,200 28 42 169 40 333 Feb-17 205 333 1,325 45 142 2,049 1,218 26 44 162 40 327 Mar-17 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 Apr-17 195 338 1,311 47 143 2,033 1,213 22 45 155 40 318 May-17 196 338 1,311 46 148 2,039 1,201 22 44 154 40 318 Jun-17 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306 Jul-17 186 333 1,299 42 138 1,998 1,161 23 41 151 34 303 Aug-17 180 331 1,297 42 136 1,986 1,138 25 40 148 35 297 Sep-17 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286 Oct-17 164 333 1,265 41 140 1,943 1,128 23 42 130 32 273 Nov-17 170 317 1,247 43 145 1,923 1,114 24 41 133 32 275 Dec-17 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292 Jan-18 170 292 1,228 42 147 1,879 1,084 25 43 141 32 295 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -19.6% -11.5% -7.4% -4.5% 4.7% -8.4% -9.6% -11.5% 0.7% -16.5% -20.0% -11.5%

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 20 C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Region of Origin OPEC Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf 2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50 2016 2.93 -0.21 0.73 -0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74 2017 3.18 -0.38 0.34 -0.35 0.52 1.74 3.73 0.60 0.95 0.33 3.16 1.73 4Q 2016 3.09 -0.41 0.61 -0.14 0.50 1.75 4.69 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.74 1Q 2017 3.41 -0.31 0.49 -0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00 2Q 2017 3.06 -0.18 0.38 -0.27 0.51 1.93 4.25 0.67 1.09 0.31 3.44 1.94 3Q 2017 3.03 -0.49 0.35 -0.22 0.50 1.51 3.82 0.58 0.73 0.31 2.99 1.50 4Q 2017 3.23 -0.54 0.12 -0.63 0.54 1.52 2.59 0.46 0.69 0.40 2.80 1.48 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.7% 32% -80.0% 338.9% 9.5% -13.0% -44.8% -32.0% -31.5% 70.2% -12.6% -14.8% Jan-17 3.52 -0.35 0.39 -0.06 0.55 2.07 5.01 0.66 1.34 0.32 3.58 2.07 Feb-17 3.41 -0.34 0.59 -0.34 0.44 1.99 3.61 0.66 1.34 0.21 3.20 1.99 Mar-17 3.31 -0.23 0.51 -0.40 0.54 1.95 4.17 0.70 1.17 0.34 3.44 1.95 Apr-17 3.07 -0.20 0.61 -0.19 0.48 2.08 4.18 0.76 1.15 0.32 3.50 2.09 May-17 3.21 -0.07 0.34 -0.36 0.48 1.93 4.49 0.69 1.11 0.29 3.45 1.94 Jun-17 2.91 -0.27 0.20 -0.28 0.58 1.80 4.09 0.56 1.02 0.31 3.37 1.80 Jul-17 2.85 -0.42 0.36 -0.41 0.44 1.75 3.62 0.62 0.79 0.24 3.23 1.77 Aug-17 3.16 -0.42 0.49 -0.08 0.62 1.37 4.41 0.55 0.74 0.39 3.00 1.36 Sep-17 3.07 -0.63 0.18 -0.18 0.44 1.40 3.44 0.58 0.67 0.29 2.75 1.36 Oct-17 3.27 -0.47 0.09 -0.71 0.59 1.53 2.50 0.53 0.57 0.43 2.96 1.47 Nov-17 3.00 -0.56 0.20 -0.51 0.58 1.57 2.62 0.47 0.78 0.46 2.85 1.55 Dec-17 3.42 -0.60 0.08 -0.66 0.46 1.46 2.64 0.40 0.72 0.30 2.60 1.42 Jan-18 3.50 -0.69 0.53 -0.44 0.57 1.55 3.66 0.42 0.74 0.33 2.76 1.55 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.4% 101% 36.2% 692.9% 3.3% -25.0% -26.9% -36.3% -44.8% 2% -23.0% -25.3% % of Total3 95.7% -19.0% 14.4% -12.1% 15.6% 42.4% 100.0% 11.4% 20.3% 8.9% 75.4% 42.3% Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) PAD District U.S. Major Producers East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2 2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50 2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59 2017 0.05 1.68 5.74 0.68 0.99 9.14 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.38 1.68 4Q 2016 0.04 1.62 5.40 0.65 0.99 8.71 0.47 0.53 0.15 3.17 1.58 1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76 2Q 2017 0.04 1.62 5.58 0.63 1.00 8.87 0.51 0.48 0.14 3.25 1.68 3Q 2017 0.05 1.68 5.81 0.68 0.96 9.17 0.46 0.49 0.14 3.45 1.69 4Q 2017 0.05 1.79 5.88 0.75 0.97 9.44 0.48 0.49 0.13 3.57 1.60 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 21.4% 10.5% 8.8% 15.4% -2.8% 8.4% 2.4% -7.4% -14.4% 12.7% 1.0% Jan-17 0.04 1.60 5.35 0.62 1.00 8.62 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.09 1.63 Feb-17 0.05 1.72 6.13 0.69 1.13 9.72 0.57 0.56 0.16 3.49 1.91 Mar-17 0.04 1.57 5.59 0.62 1.02 8.84 0.52 0.50 0.14 3.19 1.75 Apr-17 0.04 1.53 5.33 0.58 0.94 8.43 0.48 0.46 0.13 3.09 1.62 May-17 0.04 1.65 5.73 0.65 1.02 9.10 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.30 1.76 Jun-17 0.05 1.67 5.68 0.67 1.02 9.08 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.35 1.66 Jul-17 0.05 1.67 5.78 0.68 1.00 9.17 0.51 0.49 0.14 3.43 1.66 Aug-17 0.05 1.62 5.56 0.65 0.92 8.80 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.34 1.58 Sep-17 0.05 1.74 6.10 0.71 0.94 9.55 0.44 0.51 0.14 3.59 1.82 Oct-17 0.05 1.75 5.74 0.73 0.94 9.20 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.37 1.69 Nov-17 0.05 1.76 5.94 0.76 0.97 9.48 0.48 0.49 0.13 3.57 1.65 Dec-17 0.06 1.86 5.95 0.77 0.99 9.64 0.51 0.49 0.13 3.77 1.45 Jan-18 0.06 1.83 6.10 0.76 0.97 9.71 0.49 0.47 0.13 3.77 1.61 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.6% 14.2% 13.9% 22.9% -3.1% 12.7% -0.6% -5.5% -8.0% 21.8% -0.9% R/P Ratio3 7.7 12.0 9.2 10.5 10.1 9.9 8.7 11.5 10.5 10.2 7.0 Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 21

C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. 2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3 2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8 2017 1.07 88.7 3.75 93.6 8.87 90.9 0.62 89.4 2.58 88.7 16.88 90.9 4Q 2016 1.09 85.1 3.65 92.1 8.72 90.6 0.60 86.6 2.35 80.4 16.41 88.8 1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1 2Q 2017 1.10 91.3 3.84 96.0 9.28 95.2 0.62 89.7 2.58 87.8 17.42 93.8 3Q 2017 1.11 93.8 3.84 95.7 8.59 88.0 0.66 94.8 2.69 92.6 16.89 91.1 4Q 2017 1.12 95.0 3.65 90.9 9.07 92.7 0.60 86.3 2.56 90.1 17.01 91.8 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.2% -0.1% 4.1% -0.7% 9.1% 3.6% Jan-17 1.05 83.7 3.72 93.0 8.54 87.7 0.61 88.1 2.53 86.4 16.46 88.4 Feb-17 0.90 71.9 3.62 90.6 8.34 85.6 0.59 85.4 2.37 80.7 15.82 85.0 Mar-17 0.89 70.9 3.70 92.4 8.67 89.0 0.61 87.4 2.52 86.0 16.38 88.0 Apr-17 1.06 84.6 3.80 95.1 9.08 93.2 0.64 92.9 2.68 91.3 17.27 92.7 May-17 1.11 94.1 3.81 95.3 9.44 96.8 0.61 88.4 2.52 85.8 17.49 94.3 Jun-17 1.13 95.5 3.91 97.6 9.33 95.7 0.61 87.7 2.53 86.4 17.51 94.3 Jul-17 1.08 91.3 3.86 96.2 9.42 96.6 0.65 93.4 2.64 89.9 17.64 95.0 Aug-17 1.14 96.5 3.97 99.1 8.73 89.5 0.65 94.4 2.73 93.2 17.23 92.8 Sep-17 1.11 93.6 3.69 91.9 7.62 78.0 0.67 96.5 2.70 94.8 15.79 85.3 Oct-17 1.09 92.2 3.40 84.7 8.79 90.0 0.62 89.8 2.44 85.7 16.34 88.3 Nov-17 1.16 98.1 3.73 92.9 9.08 92.9 0.58 84.0 2.57 90.2 17.12 92.5 Dec-17 1.12 94.5 3.81 95.0 9.35 95.3 0.59 85.3 2.68 94.2 17.56 94.7 Jan-18 1.07 87.3 3.72 91.4 8.94 91.7 0.63 91.8 2.56 90.1 16.92 91.1 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% 0.1% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 2.8% % of Total1 6.3% 22.0% 52.9% 3.7% 15.1% 100.0% Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles (East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS) 2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50 2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51 2017 9.22 13.81 11.61 12.20 1Q 2017 7.31 9.38 11.22 12.30 2Q 2017 9.89 13.08 11.68 14.50 3Q 2017 12.01 17.72 13.20 14.41 4Q 2017 7.66 15.05 10.35 7.58 1Q 2018 7.45 11.26 10.89 12.52 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 20.0% -2.9% 1.8% Mar-17 7.02 11.15 11.76 13.36 Apr-17 9.84 14.06 12.78 14.20 May-17 9.70 12.82 11.64 15.10 Jun-17 10.13 12.35 10.62 14.21 Jul-17 12.53 15.23 12.81 15.32 Aug-17 13.24 18.72 15.35 16.44 Sep-17 10.27 19.20 11.45 11.47 Oct-17 7.54 15.16 10.06 7.00 Nov-17 7.89 14.83 10.93 8.74 Dec-17 7.54 15.16 10.06 7.00 Jan-18 8.55 14.02 11.55 9.73 Feb-18 7.29 9.24 10.73 11.89 Mar-18 6.50 10.51 10.40 15.93 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.4% -5.7% -11.6% 19.2%

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite. Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 22 D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

Canada East West Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67 2016 4.44 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87 -0.62 4.18 0.68 3.51 2017 4.80 1.74 3.06 0.01 0.26 0.95 -0.69 4.54 0.79 3.75 4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84 -0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82 1Q 2017 4.93 1.74 3.21 0.02 0.32 0.93 -0.61 4.61 0.81 3.80 2Q 2017 4.47 1.73 2.72 -0.03 0.31 0.97 -0.66 4.16 0.76 3.40 3Q 2017 4.87 1.79 3.10 0.03 0.26 0.98 -0.73 4.61 0.81 3.80 4Q 2017 5.06 1.72 3.38 0.03 0.31 0.93 -0.63 4.76 0.78 3.98 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% 12.0% -0.8% -4.5% 11.6% 5.4% 12.5% Dec-16 4.80 1.63 3.11 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76 Jan-17 5.01 1.76 3.27 0.02 0.34 0.93 -0.59 4.67 0.84 3.84 Feb-17 5.00 1.69 3.42 0.11 0.31 0.91 -0.59 4.69 0.79 3.90 Mar-17 4.79 1.76 2.95 -0.08 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.47 0.80 3.67 Apr-17 4.35 1.67 2.60 -0.08 0.29 0.94 -0.65 4.06 0.73 3.33 May-17 4.51 1.71 2.80 0.00 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.19 0.75 3.44 Jun-17 4.55 1.80 2.74 0.00 0.32 1.01 -0.69 4.23 0.79 3.44 Jul-17 4.82 1.81 3.11 0.10 0.30 0.98 -0.68 4.52 0.83 3.69 Aug-17 4.99 1.81 3.18 -0.01 0.24 1.00 -0.76 4.75 0.80 3.95 Sep-17 4.78 1.76 3.02 -0.01 0.23 0.96 -0.74 4.56 0.80 3.76 Oct-17 4.82 1.67 3.12 -0.02 0.30 0.91 -0.61 4.52 0.76 3.75 Nov-17 5.12 1.72 3.38 -0.03 0.31 0.94 -0.63 4.81 0.78 4.04 Dec-17 5.25 1.76 3.64 0.15 0.31 0.95 -0.64 4.95 0.81 4.14 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4% 8.2% 17.0% -0.9% 6.7% 10.1% 10.1% % of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 5.9% 54.1% 94.1% 45.9%

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D2: Canada Demand by Product D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels per day) (million barrels)

Finished Products Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol. 1 2 Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total Total Total 2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 2017 0.81 0.57 0.05 1.86 2017 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9 4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80 4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 1Q 2017 0.76 0.55 0.05 1.75 1Q 2017 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6 2Q 2017 0.82 0.54 0.06 1.83 2Q 2017 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3 3Q 2017 0.85 0.60 0.05 1.99 3Q 2017 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2 4Q 2017 0.81 0.60 0.05 1.86 4Q 2017 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 9.9% 14.7% 3.6% Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.7% 2.1% 3.5% Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80 Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.72 Jan-17 16.7 14.7 2.0 49.1 77.5 126.6 Feb-17 0.76 0.55 0.06 1.72 Feb-17 15.8 14.7 2.0 49.4 80.5 129.9 Mar-17 0.79 0.57 0.05 1.82 Mar-17 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6 Apr-17 0.76 0.47 0.04 1.69 Apr-17 14.8 15.5 2.4 49.7 72.5 122.2 May-17 0.83 0.56 0.08 1.86 May-17 15.5 13.2 1.9 46.8 71.3 118.1 Jun-17 0.86 0.60 0.06 1.94 Jun-17 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3 Jul-17 0.86 0.57 0.05 1.96 Jul-17 15.0 14.0 2.1 48.4 71.6 120.0 Aug-17 0.88 0.63 0.04 2.07 Aug-17 15.2 13.3 2.1 47.3 74.4 121.7 Sep-17 0.81 0.60 0.06 1.95 Sep-17 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2 Oct-17 0.81 0.64 0.04 1.94 Oct-17 17.0 13.3 2.3 49.5 72.7 122.2 Nov-17 0.82 0.62 0.05 1.89 Nov-17 15.7 12.3 1.8 45.6 77.2 122.8 Dec-17 0.80 0.53 0.06 1.75 Dec-17 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.2% -3.4% -94.1% -2.9% Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.7% 2.1% 3.5% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/ and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Handbook. Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 23

D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs 2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22 2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26 2017 3.38 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.19 0.81 1.03 0.40 1.64 0.31 4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26 1Q 2017 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.25 0.81 1.09 0.41 1.65 0.29 2Q 2017 3.08 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.23 3.89 0.81 0.87 0.40 1.52 0.29 3Q 2017 3.47 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.18 4.25 0.77 1.08 0.40 1.68 0.31 4Q 2017 3.56 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.39 0.84 1.08 0.40 1.72 0.35 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.9% 4.9% 7.5% -80.1% -5.5% 4.9% 6.9% -6.6% -1.9% 9.8% 31.9% Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.16 0.79 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28 Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.25 4.30 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.64 0.28 Feb-17 3.50 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.33 0.80 1.15 0.41 1.68 0.28 Mar-17 3.29 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.13 0.82 0.96 0.41 1.63 0.29 Apr-17 2.97 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.22 3.77 0.80 0.74 0.41 1.54 0.28 May-17 3.09 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 3.90 0.81 0.90 0.39 1.50 0.29 Jun-17 3.19 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 4.00 0.82 0.97 0.40 1.53 0.29 Jul-17 3.41 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.20 0.80 1.05 0.39 1.64 0.32 Aug-17 3.60 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.17 4.37 0.75 1.18 0.41 1.72 0.30 Sep-17 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.16 4.17 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.68 0.32 Oct-17 3.32 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.13 0.82 0.90 0.40 1.67 0.34 Nov-17 3.65 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.48 0.85 1.09 0.40 1.79 0.35 Dec-17 3.72 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.55 0.86 1.24 0.40 1.70 0.35 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.3% 3.4% 4.8% -46.0% -1.6% 9.4% 9.3% 10.1% -2.6% 9.2% 27.0%

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total 2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567 2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580 2017 0 182 12 3 582 32 0 0 0 32 0 613 4Q 2016 0 253 0 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503 1Q 2017 0 181 20 6 615 38 0 0 0 38 0 654 2Q 2017 0 89 0 0 615 55 0 0 0 55 0 670 3Q 2017 0 217 0 0 540 33 0 0 0 33 0 573 4Q 2017 0 0 0 0 557 0 0 0 0 0 0 557 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% -99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -99.9% 0.0% 10.7% Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494 Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647 Feb-17 0 274 0 0 612 81 0 0 0 81 0 692 Mar-17 0 0 0 0 588 34 0 0 0 34 0 622 Apr-17 0 0 0 0 579 36 0 0 0 36 0 615 May-17 0 266 0 0 562 129 0 0 0 129 0 691 Jun-17 0 0 0 0 704 0 0 0 0 0 0 704 Jul-17 0 260 0 0 652 1 0 0 0 1 0 653 Aug-17 0 145 0 0 436 0 0 0 0 0 0 436 Sep-17 0 245 0 0 532 98 0 0 0 98 0 630 Oct-17 0 0 0 0 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 541 Nov-17 0 0 0 0 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 541 Dec-17 0 0 0 0 588 0 0 0 0 0 0 588 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% % of Total3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Relevant • Independent • Objective Page 24 E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1 2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337 2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592 2017 1,096 75 15 1,186 186 228 413 307 121 428 2,027 1Q 2017 1,043 81 14 1,138 184 218 401 304 122 426 1,966 2Q 2017 1,030 75 17 1,122 182 222 404 310 129 439 1,965 3Q 2017 1,173 71 15 1,259 178 236 414 310 119 429 2,102 4Q 2017 1,138 72 16 1,225 199 234 433 302 115 417 2,075 1Q 2018 1,257 70 16 1,343 196 238 434 310 122 432 2,208 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 20.5% -14.3% 17.1% 18.0% 6.7% 9.2% 8.1% 2.0% -0.3% 1.3% 12.3% Mar-17 1,060 75 13 1,148 185 220 405 307 125 432 1,985 Apr-17 984 72 19 1,075 186 214 400 308 135 443 1,918 May-17 1,001 78 18 1,097 179 223 402 308 128 436 1,935 Jun-17 1,105 74 14 1,193 180 230 410 314 124 438 2,041 Jul-17 1,172 65 14 1,251 181 239 420 313 126 439 2,110 Aug-17 1,182 74 15 1,271 180 238 418 308 119 427 2,116 Sep-17 1,165 73 16 1,254 173 232 405 310 111 421 2,080 Oct-17 1,138 75 17 1,230 196 231 427 307 113 420 2,077 Nov-17 1,125 69 15 1,209 198 237 435 300 114 414 2,058 Dec-17 1,150 71 15 1,236 202 235 437 299 117 416 2,089 Jan-18 1,233 68 15 1,316 207 235 442 301 116 417 2,175 Feb-18 1,311 68 16 1,395 194 243 437 312 127 439 2,271 Mar-18 1,228 73 17 1,318 187 235 422 316 123 439 2,179 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.8% -2.7% 30.8% 14.8% 1.1% 6.8% 4.2% 2.9% -1.6% 1.6% 9.8% % of Total2 56.4% 3.4% 0.8% 60.5% 8.6% 10.8% 19.4% 14.5% 5.6% 20.1% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

United States Canada North America1 East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total 2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170 2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636 2017 79 169 31 470 136 875 854 20 204 906 172 1,079 1Q 2017 60 146 30 407 113 739 718 21 288 879 148 1,027 2Q 2017 77 171 33 489 140 892 871 21 115 831 176 1,007 3Q 2017 85 184 31 498 151 947 928 19 208 969 186 1,155 4Q 2017 95 176 31 485 142 921 901 20 205 947 178 1,125 1Q 2018 111 172 29 510 142 965 949 16 273 1,053 185 1,238 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 84.0% 18.0% -2.2% 25.1% 25.7% 30.6% 32.2% -24.1% -5.2% 19.8% 25.0% 20.6% Mar-17 65 151 30 431 121 789 770 19 253 888 154 1,042 Apr-17 76 167 33 482 136 853 833 20 109 796 166 962 May-17 76 167 33 485 137 893 871 22 85 800 178 978 Jun-17 80 178 34 500 146 931 909 22 150 897 184 1,081 Jul-17 81 188 35 504 152 953 931 22 198 962 189 1,151 Aug-17 84 183 29 499 151 947 930 17 217 981 183 1,164 Sep-17 91 181 29 491 149 940 922 18 210 963 187 1,150 Oct-17 95 181 32 479 145 922 901 21 204 945 180 1,126 Nov-17 91 172 30 485 140 911 891 20 205 943 173 1,116 Dec-17 98 174 30 492 140 930 911 19 205 953 182 1,135 Jan-18 107 171 31 493 139 937 919 18 278 1,029 187 1,215 Feb-18 114 173 28 511 141 969 952 17 323 1,112 180 1,292 Mar-18 112 173 28 525 145 989 976 13 218 1,019 188 1,207 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 72.3% 14.6% -6.7% 21.8% 19.8% 25.3% 26.7% -33.0% -13.8% 14.7% 22.3% 15.8% % of Total3 9.3% 14.3% 2.3% 43.5% 12.0% 81.9% 80.8% 1.1% 18.1% 84.4% 15.6% 100.0%

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

CERI Crude Oil Report Page 25

Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD Crude Oil Qualities Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non- Producing API Sulfur OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England Country or Gravity Content BBLs/Metric (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Crude Stream Region (@60° F) (%) Tonne Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910 Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida, Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773 Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640 -West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640 Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640 Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama, Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640 Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640 (PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640 (PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551 Washington. Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506 3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462 Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373 Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373 Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373 Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon). Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373 WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328 Additional Notes Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284 1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284 whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates. Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239 Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194 NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105 products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061 by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061 quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3. Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971 Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971 loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838 responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436 priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5. Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production,net imports/exports, stock changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected].

Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

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