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Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm
LEBANON: MANAGING THE GATHERING STORM Middle East Report N°48 – 5 December 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. A SYSTEM BETWEEN OLD AND NEW.................................................................. 1 A. SETTING THE STAGE: THE ELECTORAL CONTEST..................................................................1 B. THE MEHLIS EFFECT.............................................................................................................5 II. SECTARIANISM AND INTERNATIONALISATION ............................................. 8 A. FROM SYRIAN TUTELAGE TO WESTERN UMBRELLA?............................................................8 B. SHIFTING ALLIANCES..........................................................................................................12 III. THE HIZBOLLAH QUESTION ................................................................................ 16 A. “A NEW PHASE OF CONFRONTATION” ................................................................................17 B. HIZBOLLAH AS THE SHIITE GUARDIAN?..............................................................................19 C. THE PARTY OF GOD TURNS PARTY OF GOVERNMENT.........................................................20 IV. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 22 A. A BROAD INTERNATIONAL COALITION FOR A NARROW AGENDA .......................................22 B. A LEBANESE COURT ON FOREIGN -
Militia Politics
INTRODUCTION Humboldt – Universität zu Berlin Dissertation MILITIA POLITICS THE FORMATION AND ORGANISATION OF IRREGULAR ARMED FORCES IN SUDAN (1985-2001) AND LEBANON (1975-1991) Zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades doctor philosophiae (Dr. phil) Philosophische Fakultät III der Humbold – Universität zu Berlin (M.A. B.A.) Jago Salmon; 9 Juli 1978; Canberra, Australia Dekan: Prof. Dr. Gert-Joachim Glaeßner Gutachter: 1. Dr. Klaus Schlichte 2. Prof. Joel Migdal Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 18.07.2006 INTRODUCTION You have to know that there are two kinds of captain praised. One is those who have done great things with an army ordered by its own natural discipline, as were the greater part of Roman citizens and others who have guided armies. These have had no other trouble than to keep them good and see to guiding them securely. The other is those who not only have had to overcome the enemy, but, before they arrive at that, have been necessitated to make their army good and well ordered. These without doubt merit much more praise… Niccolò Machiavelli, The Art of War (2003, 161) INTRODUCTION Abstract This thesis provides an analysis of the organizational politics of state supporting armed groups, and demonstrates how group cohesion and institutionalization impact on the patterns of violence witnessed within civil wars. Using an historical comparative method, strategies of leadership control are examined in the processes of organizational evolution of the Popular Defence Forces, an Islamist Nationalist militia, and the allied Lebanese Forces, a Christian Nationalist militia. The first group was a centrally coordinated network of irregular forces which fielded ill-disciplined and semi-autonomous military units, and was responsible for severe war crimes. -
Understanding the Dynamics of Lebanon's Protest Movementi
POLICY OUTLOOK POLICY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION PAPER Understanding the Dynamics of Lebanon’s Protest Movementi In the midst of a severe economic crisis, the protests that broke out in Lebanon on October 17th represent a potential monumental rupture in the country’s post-Civil War political and social order. Lebanon’s ruling class has been shaken and traditional political dynamics have been disrupted. Yet, in a state often characterised as weak, the political and social regime premised on sectarian and confessional divisions remains strong. Attempts to re-enforce sectarian divisions by traditional political parties are a clear demonstration of this dynamic. While the protest movement continues to press its demands for the removal of what they see as a corrupted political class, an independent cabinet and new a new electoral law, many challenges remain. Understanding both the dynamics of the protest movement and the lenses through which politics are viewed in the country represents an important piece of the puzzle in understanding where the country may be heading and determining long-term policy solutions to the country’s economic, political and social ills. The opinions expressed in this policy outlook represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TRT World Research Centre. POLICY OUTLOOK Introduction Background: The On October 17th 2019, Lebanon witnessed an outburst of popular anger ostensibly in reaction to the declared Ta’if Accord and intention to institute a ‘WhatsApp’ tax in the midst of an ongoing economic crisis. Widespread and largely the cementing of a unprecedented protests have been taking place across the country ever since. -
Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium
LEBANON'S UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM AUTHOR Mona Yacoubian November 2009 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE 1200 17th Street NW, Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20036-3011 www.usip.org USIP Peace Briefing: Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium INTRODUCTION Lebanon's recently announced national unity government has eased fears that the country would once again be mired in a dangerous political stalemate. Yet, despite the recent breakthrough, Lebanon's unstable equilibrium -- marked by both internal and regional tensions - - could still devolve into serious violence. Deep seated sectarian animosities persist, raising the prospects for political instability and civil strife if unaddressed. Regionally, mounting tensions with Israel raise the worrisome possibility of isolated border incidents spiraling into more serious conflict. Taken together these two underlying challenges to stability -- internal civil unrest and regional conflict with Israel -- could undermine Lebanon’s fragile peace. This paper will examine internal challenges to Lebanon’s stability. Formed five months after the June 2009 parliamentary elections, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri's consensus cabinet, comprised of his March 14th coalition together with members of the opposition March 8th bloc, is an essential step toward ensuring that Lebanon gains more stable footing. 1 The new government follows a compromise formula allotting 15 cabinet seats to the majority, 10 to the opposition, and five to President Michel Suleiman. While power-sharing arrangements are by nature less effective and more prone to stalemate, they are crucial to Lebanon’s delicately balanced confessional system and provide an essential pathway to civil peace. Beyond the new consensus government, two critical developments would help to facilitate peace and stability in Lebanon: . -
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MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3229 Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure by Hanin Ghaddar Dec 17, 2019 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Hanin Ghaddar Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant. Brief Analysis By uniting behind the message that financial aid and punishment will be tied to specific courses of action, the United States, France, and the UN may finally be able to push Beirut into establishing a reform-minded government. ince caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri resigned in October, the process of forming a new Lebanese S government has become more complicated. Street protests continue amid increased violence by security institutions, while the country’s dominant political actor—the widely designated terrorist organization Hezbollah—is still insisting on a government headed by Hariri and favorable to its interests. Yet three important events took place last week that could change that plan and break the deadlock. First, the International Support Group for Lebanon (ISGL), co-chaired by France and the United Nations, met in Paris and explicitly stated that the international community will not help Lebanon financially until a new government is formed—specifically, one “that will have the capacity and credibility to deliver the necessary substantive policy package of economic reforms, and that will be committed to dissociate the country from regional tensions and crisis.” Although there was no mention of who should—or should not—head this government, the consensus on reform was clear. -
To Push Past Hezbollah Stonewalling, Leverage the LAF by Hanin Ghaddar
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3453 To Push Past Hezbollah Stonewalling, Leverage the LAF by Hanin Ghaddar Mar 18, 2021 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Hanin Ghaddar Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant. Brief Analysis The political fallout from a recent speech by the Lebanese Armed Forces commander gives Washington and its partners a golden opportunity to prod the country from crisis management toward actual solutions. s Lebanon’s economy continues its freefall and government formation stalls, protestors have responded to A the resultant humanitarian crisis by returning to the streets. Although the movement does not seem as well- organized as it was in 2019, it is certainly more heated. And this time around, the economic meltdown has reached the army. In a March 8 speech, Lebanese Armed Forces commander Gen. Joseph Aoun lamented the dire situation facing the institution and its soldiers. His words also carried weighty political messages against the ruling elites, whom he accused of cutting the LAF’s budget to a dangerous degree. Currency devaluation has left most soldiers earning around $60 per month, and many of them are requesting leaves of absence or no longer reporting to their jobs, while senior commanders are asking for early retirement. Of course, the LAF’s financial situation is no different from that of other state institutions, and simply giving raises to the troops (as suggested by the minister of finance) would be unfair to others and could increase inflation. -
Discourse As an Electoral Campaigning Tool: Exploiting the Emotions of Voters
Discourse as an Electoral Campaigning Tool: Exploiting the Policy Report Policy Emotions of Voters DEC 2020 Founded in 1989, the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies is a Beirut-based independent, non-partisan think tank whose mission is to produce and advocate policies that improve good governance in fields such as oil and gas, economic development, public finance, and decentralization. This report is published in partnership with HIVOS through the Women Empowered for Leadership (WE4L) programme, funded by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry FLOW fund. Copyright © 2020. The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies Designed by Polypod Executed by Zéna Khairallah Sadat Tower, Tenth Flour P.O.B 55-215, Leon Street, Ras Beirut, Lebanon T+ +961 1 79 93 01 F: +961 1 79 93 02 [email protected] www.lcps-lebanon.org Discourse as an Electoral Campaigning Tool: Exploiting the Emotions of Voters Sami Atallah Sami Atallah is the director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. He is currently leading several policy studies on youth social identity and political engagement, electoral behavior, political and social sectarianism, and the role of municipalities in dealing with the refugee crisis. He is the co-editor of Democracy, Decentralization, and Service Delivery in the Arab World (with Mona Harb, Beirut, LCPS 2015), co- editor of The Future of Petroleum in Lebanon: Energy, Politics, and Economic Growth (with Bassam Fattouh, I.B. Tauris, 2019), and co-editor of The Lebanese Parliament 2009-2018: From Illegal Extensions to Vacuum (with Nayla Geagea, 2018). Nadim El Kak Nadim El Kak is a researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies and research associate at Lebanon Support. -
Issue34 V5.Qxd
CONTENTS July 2005 - Issue N° 34 NDU Spirit A periodical about campus life at Notre Dame University - Louaïze. 2 A WORD FROM THE PRESIDENT ACADEMIC AFFAIRS 3 French Delegation at NDU 3 Lebanese Emigrants’ Delegation at NDU 4 NDU Activists and Congressman STUDENT AND ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES 5 Admissions in Action! Report by Dr. Elham Hasham WEERC 27 ETE Seminars 10 WEERC Workshop for Chekka area 28 NDU Winner at ESU Competition LERC Conferences 29 NDU Founders’ Day 11 Children of Lebanese in Australia 31 Job Fair 2005 – Dr. Rosemary Suliman 32 NDU Students in Turkey – Nathalie Kobrossi 13 Forum: Residents and Emigrants 33 NDU Student Soars High – Dr. Naji Oueijan 4th Millennial Lecture Series 35 Deputy Pierre Jmeil and Dr. Wadih al-Hajj 15 Universal Reason: Religion and Civil Society – Lebanon of Tomorrow – Dr. William Grassie 35 Dr. Eddy Abillamaa – The Future of the Forces 19 What does Athens have to do with Jerusalem 36 Candidates Farid el-Khazen, I. Kanaan, – Dr. Joseph Bechara G. Abi Zaid and A. Aoun 20 Cross Cultural Symposium with American 36 A Call for Democracy – Deputy Mosbah Ahdab University, Washington 36 Gibran Tueni talks North Campus News 37 Sports Office News 23 Workshop: Lebanese Architecture 37 NDU students united for Independence 24 Workshop on Drug Abuse 25 Shouf Campus Shorts — Events OPINION AND CULTURE 38 Experience never stops – Elias Karout 65 Mechanical Engineering at NDU – Dr. Walid C. Assaf 39 Social - Correction 66 Heating System with Storage – Dr. Walid C. Assaf 40 Why NDU? – Serge Dagher 67 American Society of Mechanical Engineers – Charbel Wehbe 41 Government in Media Developments 68 Solid Mechanics and its Applications – Dr. -
Failing to Deal with the Past : What Cost to Lebanon? for Transitional Justice
Cover Image: On left: Ain El Remmaneh, Beirut, February 17, 1990. (Roger Moukarzel) On right: Special Tribunal for Lebanon. (STL) Top of map: Court room scene after four judges were assassinated in Saida, on June 8, 1999. (Annahar) Bottom of map: Chil- dren in Sin el Fil, 1989. (Roger Moukarzel) Design by Edward Beebe LEBANON Failing to Deal with the Past What Cost to Lebanon? January 2014 International Center Failing to Deal with the Past : What Cost to Lebanon? for Transitional Justice Acknowledgments The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) gratefully acknowledges the support of the European Union (EU), which made this project possible. Dima Smaira would like to thank Maya Mansour and Rami Smaira for their advice and support. ICTJ also thanks Nidal Jurdi for conducting a peer review. About the Authors and Contributors Dima Smaira is a researcher based in Lebanon specializing in Lebanese politics and the study of conflict and security. She is a PhD candidate in international relations at Durham University (UK). She holds an MA in International Affairs from the Lebanese American University. Her areas of specialization include issues relating to human security, stability, conflict, and the transformation of security in Lebanon. Roxane Cassehgari is a research assistant at ICTJ. She received her LL.M. from Columbia Law School, with a specialization in human rights, transitional justice, and international criminal law. She holds a dual law degree from Cambridge University (UK) and Panthéon- Assas (France). International Center for Transitional Justice ICTJ assists societies confronting massive human rights abuses to promote accountability, pursue truth, provide reparations, and build trustworthy institutions. -
The Hezbollah-Iran Pivot: the Controlling Agencies Behind Lebanon's Sectarian Politics
SAGE International Australia ©, 18 July 2016 1 The Hezbollah-Iran Pivot: the controlling agencies behind Lebanon’s sectarian politics By Dr. Imad K. Harb, Member of the SAGE International Australia Advisory Board, Founder of Quest for Middle East Analysis, Washington D.C. ebanon has lacked for a chief executive since May 2014, when former President Michel Suleiman’s six-year term expired. The Lebanese L Parliament has failed forty-two times (and counting) to convene a constitutional election session in which at least two-thirds of its members participate to ensure a quorum. The country’s government, under the premiership of Sunni politician Tammam Salam, has by default become the only executive authority in the land, but political wrangling deprives it of cohesion and effectiveness. Meanwhile, Parliament itself is steadily marching toward the expiry of its own term in less than a year – which, at any rate, its members had twice renewed before, once during Suleiman’s presidency and once after it. Indeed, the country’s constitutional life is living on borrowed time as a myriad of political, economic, security, and social problems around it metastasize. As is natural when state institutions fail to exercise guiding authority, Lebanon’s political factions have shrunk to mere instruments for ensuring vertical communal interests in what the late historian Kamal Salibi called “the many houses of the Lebanese mansion.” The country’s economy is verging on collapse as American sanctions on Hezbollah threaten the health and survival of Lebanon’s banking sector, perhaps the last remaining vestige of its old and vibrant capitalism. -
Political Party Mapping in Lebanon Ahead of the 2018 Elections
Political Party Mapping in Lebanon Ahead of the 2018 Elections Foreword This study on the political party mapping in Lebanon ahead of the 2018 elections includes a survey of most Lebanese political parties; especially those that currently have or previously had parliamentary or government representation, with the exception of Lebanese Communist Party, Islamic Unification Movement, Union of Working People’s Forces, since they either have candidates for elections or had previously had candidates for elections before the final list was out from the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities. The first part includes a systematic presentation of 27 political parties, organizations or movements, showing their official name, logo, establishment, leader, leading committee, regional and local alliances and relations, their stance on the electoral law and their most prominent candidates for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The second part provides the distribution of partisan and political powers over the 15 electoral districts set in the law governing the elections of May 6, 2018. It also offers basic information related to each district: the number of voters, the expected participation rate, the electoral quotient, the candidate’s ceiling on election expenditure, in addition to an analytical overview of the 2005 and 2009 elections, their results and alliances. The distribution of parties for 2018 is based on the research team’s analysis and estimates from different sources. 2 Table of Contents Page Introduction ....................................................................................................... -
Iran Playing for Time As US Sanctions Start to Bite
UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com Issue 169, Year 4 August 12, 2018 EU €2.50 Palestinian American to be first Start of haj Muslim woman in US Congress season Pages 6,17 Page 18 Climate change takes its toll on Lebanon’s millennium cedars Samar Kadi Beirut hey have capped Lebanon’s mountaintops for thou- sands of years. The Phoe- T nicians used their wood to build merchant ships and Egyp- tians used their resin to mummify the dead. Now the emblematic ce- dars of Lebanon (Cedrus Libani) are facing their biggest challenge — cli- mate change. Cedar forests covered 5,000 sq.km of Lebanon’s highlands in ancient times. They have outlived invaders, empires and modern wars but centuries of deforestation have reduced the forests to 20 sq.km. The trees, some 3,000 years old, Displaced Syrians queue to receive Russian aid in the northern Syrian town of Tal Rifaat. As the Syrian war Deep roots. Colombian singer thrive on moisture and cool tem- draws to a close with signs of a government offensive in Idlib on the Turkish border, the last province held by Shakira plants a tree in the peratures and their seeds need a rebel forces, the plight of the more than 11 million refugees — half of whom left Syria and fled to Turkey, Jordan, Cedar Reserve, last July. (AP) Lebanon and other countries — is back on the international agenda. UN Regional Humanitarian Coordinator minimum amount of snow and rain Panos Moumtzis said that Idlib’s entire population of 2.5 million people could be displaced and moved towards for regeneration.