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Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm
LEBANON: MANAGING THE GATHERING STORM Middle East Report N°48 – 5 December 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. A SYSTEM BETWEEN OLD AND NEW.................................................................. 1 A. SETTING THE STAGE: THE ELECTORAL CONTEST..................................................................1 B. THE MEHLIS EFFECT.............................................................................................................5 II. SECTARIANISM AND INTERNATIONALISATION ............................................. 8 A. FROM SYRIAN TUTELAGE TO WESTERN UMBRELLA?............................................................8 B. SHIFTING ALLIANCES..........................................................................................................12 III. THE HIZBOLLAH QUESTION ................................................................................ 16 A. “A NEW PHASE OF CONFRONTATION” ................................................................................17 B. HIZBOLLAH AS THE SHIITE GUARDIAN?..............................................................................19 C. THE PARTY OF GOD TURNS PARTY OF GOVERNMENT.........................................................20 IV. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 22 A. A BROAD INTERNATIONAL COALITION FOR A NARROW AGENDA .......................................22 B. A LEBANESE COURT ON FOREIGN -
Timeline of Key Events: March 2011: Anti-Government Protests Broke
Timeline of key events: March 2011: Anti-government protests broke out in Deraa governorate calling for political reforms, end of emergency laws and more freedoms. After government crackdown on protestors, demonstrations were nationwide demanding the ouster of Bashar Al-Assad and his government. July 2011: Dr. Nabil Elaraby, Secretary General of the League of Arab States (LAS), paid his first visit to Syria, after his assumption of duties, and demanded the regime to end violence, and release detainees. August 2011: LAS Ministerial Council requested its Secretary General to present President Assad with a 13-point Arab initiative (attached) to resolve the crisis. It included cessation of violence, release of political detainees, genuine political reforms, pluralistic presidential elections, national political dialogue with all opposition factions, and the formation of a transitional national unity government, which all needed to be implemented within a fixed time frame and a team to monitor the above. - The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed of army defectors, led by Col. Riad al-Asaad, and backed by Arab and western powers militarily. September 2011: In light of the 13-Point Arab Initiative, LAS Secretary General's and an Arab Ministerial group visited Damascus to meet President Assad, they were assured that a series of conciliatory measures were to be taken by the Syrian government that focused on national dialogue. October 2011: An Arab Ministerial Committee on Syria was set up, including Algeria, Egypt, Oman, Sudan and LAS Secretary General, mandated to liaise with Syrian government to halt violence and commence dialogue under the auspices of the Arab League with the Syrian opposition on the implementation of political reforms that would meet the aspirations of the people. -
Hintergrund Syrien 24.03.2016 Petra Becker Stiftung Wissenschaftstiftung Politik Und
Newsletter Projekt »Lokale, regionale und internationale Dynamiken im Syrien- Konflikt« SWP Hintergrund Syrien 24.03.2016 Petra Becker Stiftung WissenschaftStiftung Politik und Freitagsmotti 04.03.2016: Die Revolution geht weiter 11.03.2016: Erneuerung des Schwurs Politik und Sicherheit Politik und 18.03.2016: Freitag der Würde Rund um den 5. Jahrestag des Ausbruchs der Revolution beschwören alle drei Motti den Geist dieser Revolution. Mit Schwur ist das Versprechen gemeint, dass die Revolutionäre auf ihren Demonstrationen seit 2011 den Märtyrern gegeben haben: „Ihr werdet nicht umsonst gestorben sein.“ Das Motto „Freitag der Würde“ entspricht dem Motto der ersten geplanten Freitagsde- monstration am 25.03.2011. Demonstrationen kehren mit Feuerpause zurück Dass es eine neue Welle von Demonstrationen gibt, hat damit zu tun, dass es nach Inkraft- treten der Feuerpause nun an vielen Orten wieder möglich ist, auf die Straße zu gehen. Deutsches Institut für Internationale Auch wenn vielerorts weiterhin gekämpft wird (s.u. sonstige wichtige Entwicklungen), so ist in manchen anderen Orten vorsichtige Ruhe eingekehrt. Verschiedene Quellen berich- ten, dass am ersten Freitag im März landesweit in mehr als hundert Städten demonstriert wurde. Proteste auch gegen Jabhat Al-Nusra Bei den Demonstrationen der letzten Wochen ging es um den Sturz des Regimes, auf man- chen auch gegen die Feuerpause und die Verhandlungen in Genf, weil man befürchtet, dass die Verhandlungen ein Versuch sein sollen, das Regime im Sattel zu halten. Manch- mal ging es auch um lokale Forderungen, z. B. um die Einbeziehung von Daraya in die Waffenstillstandsgebiete. Interessant ist, dass die Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN) am 07.03.2016 eine Demonstration in Idlib- Stadt auflöste und den Demonstranten verbot, die Revolutionsfahne zu schwenken. -
Understanding the Dynamics of Lebanon's Protest Movementi
POLICY OUTLOOK POLICY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION PAPER Understanding the Dynamics of Lebanon’s Protest Movementi In the midst of a severe economic crisis, the protests that broke out in Lebanon on October 17th represent a potential monumental rupture in the country’s post-Civil War political and social order. Lebanon’s ruling class has been shaken and traditional political dynamics have been disrupted. Yet, in a state often characterised as weak, the political and social regime premised on sectarian and confessional divisions remains strong. Attempts to re-enforce sectarian divisions by traditional political parties are a clear demonstration of this dynamic. While the protest movement continues to press its demands for the removal of what they see as a corrupted political class, an independent cabinet and new a new electoral law, many challenges remain. Understanding both the dynamics of the protest movement and the lenses through which politics are viewed in the country represents an important piece of the puzzle in understanding where the country may be heading and determining long-term policy solutions to the country’s economic, political and social ills. The opinions expressed in this policy outlook represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TRT World Research Centre. POLICY OUTLOOK Introduction Background: The On October 17th 2019, Lebanon witnessed an outburst of popular anger ostensibly in reaction to the declared Ta’if Accord and intention to institute a ‘WhatsApp’ tax in the midst of an ongoing economic crisis. Widespread and largely the cementing of a unprecedented protests have been taking place across the country ever since. -
Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium
LEBANON'S UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM AUTHOR Mona Yacoubian November 2009 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE 1200 17th Street NW, Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20036-3011 www.usip.org USIP Peace Briefing: Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium INTRODUCTION Lebanon's recently announced national unity government has eased fears that the country would once again be mired in a dangerous political stalemate. Yet, despite the recent breakthrough, Lebanon's unstable equilibrium -- marked by both internal and regional tensions - - could still devolve into serious violence. Deep seated sectarian animosities persist, raising the prospects for political instability and civil strife if unaddressed. Regionally, mounting tensions with Israel raise the worrisome possibility of isolated border incidents spiraling into more serious conflict. Taken together these two underlying challenges to stability -- internal civil unrest and regional conflict with Israel -- could undermine Lebanon’s fragile peace. This paper will examine internal challenges to Lebanon’s stability. Formed five months after the June 2009 parliamentary elections, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri's consensus cabinet, comprised of his March 14th coalition together with members of the opposition March 8th bloc, is an essential step toward ensuring that Lebanon gains more stable footing. 1 The new government follows a compromise formula allotting 15 cabinet seats to the majority, 10 to the opposition, and five to President Michel Suleiman. While power-sharing arrangements are by nature less effective and more prone to stalemate, they are crucial to Lebanon’s delicately balanced confessional system and provide an essential pathway to civil peace. Beyond the new consensus government, two critical developments would help to facilitate peace and stability in Lebanon: . -
Military Appreciation Night at Ripken Stadium Aug
AAPGPublishedP in the interestG of the people of AberdeenNNEWS Proving Ground,E MarylandWS www.TeamAPG.com THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2015 Vol. 59, No. 32 newsbrief AUGUST IS ANTI- TERRORISM AWARENESS MONTH “See Something…Say Something.” It’s a simple phrase that we’ve all heard many times, but do we really know what it means? What exactly are we looking for? And do we really know what do to if we see it? To help us better under- stand the importance of Photo by Molly Blosse identifying suspicious activity and the proper way to report it, the Army developed the anti-terror- ism awareness program called “iWATCH”. The types of activities and behaviors everone should watch for include (but are not limited to): strangers asking ques- tions about security or building security proce- dures; briefcases, bags, or packages left unat- tended; cars or trucks left in no-parking zones in front of important build- Photo by Molly Blosse Photo by Yvonne Johnson ings; or chemical smells or fumes. (Clockwise, from left) APG Senior Commander Maj. Gen. Bruce T. Crawford throws out the first pitch for the Aberdeen IronBirds Members of Team APG Military Appreciation Night at Ripken Stadium Aug. 6; Staff Sgt. William Ely wears an explosive ordnance disposal suit, and should report any suspi- Spc. Patrick McElhinney assists as they demonstrate a remote control vehicle to a local family; CECOM Chief of Staff Col. Paul cious activity to the APG E. Harris III, right, chats with Vietnam-era veteran Carol Baker, commander of American Legion Department of Maryland, while police by calling 410-306- visiting the seating area reserved for veterans and Gold Star family members. -
Ohio River -1783 to October 1790: A) Indians Have: I
1790-1795 . (5 Years) ( The Northwestern Indian War· . Situation & Events Leading Up To 1. Along the Ohio River -1783 to October 1790: A) Indians have: I. Killed, wounded, or taken prisoner: (1)1,500 men, women, or children. II. Stolen over 2,000 horses. III. Stolen property valued at over $50 thousand. 2. Presi.dent Washington - Orders - Governor of . .. Northwest Territory, Maj. Gen. Arthur St. Clair: A) Punish the Indians! ( 3. 1,450 Volunteers assemble at Cincinnati, Ohio: A) Commanded by Brig. G·eneral Josiah Harmer. 1790 - September 1. September 30, 1790 - Harmer's force starts out: A) Follow a trail of burnt Indian villages. 2. Indians are leading them deeper and deeper into Indian country. 3. Indians are led by Chief Little Turtle. ( 1"790 - October 1. October 19, 1790 - Col . .John Hardin is leading 21 Oof Harmer's Scouts: A) Ambushed! B) Cut to pieces! C) Route! 2. October 21, 1790 - Harmer's force: "A) Ambushed! B) Harmer retreats: I. Loses 180 killed & 33 wounded. C) November 4, 1790 - Survivors make it back to Cincinnati: - " -- ".. • •• "' : •••••• " ,or"""' .~..' •• , .~ I. Year later... Harmer resigns . ... -.: .~- ,: .... ~ 1791 1. Major General Arthur St. Clair - Takes command: . A) Old. B) Fat •.. C) No wilderness experience. D) NO idea .of how many Indians oppose him. E) NO idea of where the Indians are. F) Will not listen to advice. G) Will not take advice. H) Plans: I. Establish a string of Forts for 135 miles northwest of Cincinnati. 1791 - October 1. October 3, 1791 - .St. Clair's . force leaves Cincinnati: A) 2,000 men. B) Slow march. -
Isis: the 21St Century Investment 1
Running head: ISIS: THE 21ST CENTURY INVESTMENT 1 ISIS: The 21st Century Investment Samy Tolaymat Diablo Valley College ISIS: THE 21ST CENTURY INVESTMENT 2 Abstract On 29 June 2014, ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, announced their establishment over Iraq and Levant Countries. Over 30 countries are fighting ISIS without being able to at least stop the rapid growth of it. Meaning that not only one government is involved in the rise and growth of ISIS, and this proclaimed fight is definitely serving a lot of countries interests. After researching the reasons why ISIS came into being, the data shows that the realism theory is the clearest one to explain the presence of ISIS, and to explain the proclaimed war against ISIS. This essay will prove, through books, documentaries and internet articles, how the presence of ISIS serves the interests of each country proclaims its enmity to ISIS, as well as how some countries are involved in creating ISIS. ISIS: THE 21ST CENTURY INVESTMENT 3 Introduction ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, is the most successful and dangerous jihadist militant group the world has ever seen. Many have analyzed the way this group has grown up. However, there is no doubt that the instability and turmoil caused by the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 looked desirable to any terrorist group like ISIS to take over the country. Bunzel says in the book From Paper State to Caliphate the Ideology of the Islamic State, “While the Islamic State had hoped for this level of zeal from its 2006 founding, its initial efforts failed. -
Special List 382: the Ottoman Empire
special list 382 1 RICHARD C.RAMER Special List 382 The Ottoman Empire 2 RICHARDrichard c. C.RAMER ramer Old and Rare Books 225 east 70th street . suite 12f . new york, n.y. 10021-5217 Email [email protected] . Website www.livroraro.com Telephones (212) 737 0222 and 737 0223 Fax (212) 288 4169 July 20, 2020 Special List 382 The Ottoman Empire Items marked with an asterisk (*) will be shipped from Lisbon. SATISFACTION GUARANTEED: All items are understood to be on approval, and may be returned within a reasonable time for any reason whatsoever. VISITORS BY APPOINTMENT Specialspecial Listlist 382 382 3 The Ottoman Empire Procession and Prayers in Mecca to Ward Off the Persians 1. ANTONIO, João Carlos [pseudonym of António Correia de Lemos]. Relaçam de huma solemne e extraordinaria procissam de preces, que por ordem da Corte Ottomana fizerão os Turcos na Cidade de Meca, no dia 16 de Julho de 1728. Para alcançar a assistencia de Deos contra as armas dos Persas; e aplacar o flagello da peste, que todos os annos experimenta a sua Monarquia. Traduzida de huma que se recebeo da Cidade de Constanti- nopla por ... Primeira parte [only, of 2]. Lisboa Occidental: Na Officina de Pedro Ferreira, 1730. 4°, disbound. Small woodcut vignette on title page. Woodcut headpiece with arms of Portugal and five-line woodcut initial on p. 3. Minor marginal worming (touching a few letters at edges), light browning, lower margin unevenly cut but not touching text. Barely in good condition. 21, (2) pp. $700.00 First Edition in Portuguese, with a lengthy and detailed description of a procession at Mecca. -
Information and Liaison Bulletin N°340
INSTITUT KURD E DE PARIS Information and liaison bulletin N°340 july 2013 The publication of this Bulletin enjoys a subsidy from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGCID) aqnd the Fonds d’action et de soutien pour l’intégration et la lutte contre les discriminations (The Fund for action and support of integration and the struggle against discrimination) This bulletin is issued in French and English Price per issue : France: 6 € — Abroad : 7,5 € Annual subscribtion (12 issues) France : 60 € — Elsewhere : 75 € Monthly review Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Numéro de la Commission Paritaire : 659 15 A.S. ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tel. : 01-48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01-48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: bulletin@fikp.org Information and liaison bulletin Kurdish Institute of Paris Bulletin N° 340 July 2013 • IRAQI KURDISTAN: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN POSTPONED. • SYRIA: VIOLENT FIGHTING BETWEEN JIHADANISTS AND THE PYD FORCES. TURKEY: THE PKK THREATENS TO PUT AN END TO THE NEGOTIATIONS. • IRAN: INCREASED REPRESSION OF THE KURDISH BORDER VILLAGES. • CULTURE: HADASSA YESHURIN, AND ISRAELI SINGER WITH A KURDISH AND ARAMAIC REPERTORY. IRAQI KURDISTAN: THE PRESIDENTIALS ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN POSTPONED utting an end to the dis - the KDP, has preferred this solution was when, at the age of 16, I cussions over the possi - to that of a referendum on the new became a Peshmerga for the free - ble re-election or exten - constitution. It said it considered the dom and the national and democrat - P sion of his Presidential latter option could endanger social ic rights of the people of Kurdistan. -
•A Maritime History of the United States
The Eagle’s Webbed Feet The Eagle’s Webbed Feet •A Maritime History ofA theMaritime United History ofStates the United States A To Defend a New Country (& Creating a “New” Navy) “Don’t give up the ship” “We have met the enemy and they are ours” Barbary Pirates • State sponsored piracy of long standing • Active piracy • Tribute • After 1783, American vessels were subject to capture • However, Portuguese blockade kept them out of the Atlantic • By 1785, US is routinely paying ransom and tribute to the Barbary States • Treaty with Morocco (1783) • Treaty with Algiers (1785) • 15 years of tribute would follow (up to $1M / year) Resurgence • 1789 – New constitution authorizes a Navy (over significant protests) • No action, no money • In 1793, Portugal ends Gibraltar blockade • Algiers then captures 11 American merchant ships in the Atlantic • Demands ever increasing tribute • Causes Congress to finally act in two ways (Diplomacy & a Navy) • Naval Act of 1794 (Passed by 2 votes) • The “Six Frigates” • Manning (incl. marines) • Strong opposition led to cancellation clause • 1796 – Peace accord with Algiers • President Washington forces the issue on three frigates The Six Frigates • Three 44’s, Two 38’s, and one 36 • Arguably the best frigates in the world at the time • Royal Navy report • Achieved that elusive balance that warships strive for: “To outfight anything it USS Constitution couldn’t outrun” Quasi-War with France • 1789- French Revolution • By 1796 several issues erupt between France and the U.S. • Trade deal with England • Stopped paying our debt owed to the crown (not the republic) • French deployed privateers which seized 316 ships in 1796 alone • 1798 – The X,Y,Z affair • Congress authorizes completion of the other three frigates and the procurement of a small fleet • July 7 1798 – Congress authorized the Navy to attack French warships • Big American advantage – British blockade of French warships. -
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MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3229 Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure by Hanin Ghaddar Dec 17, 2019 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Hanin Ghaddar Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant. Brief Analysis By uniting behind the message that financial aid and punishment will be tied to specific courses of action, the United States, France, and the UN may finally be able to push Beirut into establishing a reform-minded government. ince caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri resigned in October, the process of forming a new Lebanese S government has become more complicated. Street protests continue amid increased violence by security institutions, while the country’s dominant political actor—the widely designated terrorist organization Hezbollah—is still insisting on a government headed by Hariri and favorable to its interests. Yet three important events took place last week that could change that plan and break the deadlock. First, the International Support Group for Lebanon (ISGL), co-chaired by France and the United Nations, met in Paris and explicitly stated that the international community will not help Lebanon financially until a new government is formed—specifically, one “that will have the capacity and credibility to deliver the necessary substantive policy package of economic reforms, and that will be committed to dissociate the country from regional tensions and crisis.” Although there was no mention of who should—or should not—head this government, the consensus on reform was clear.