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Hintergrund Syrien 24.03.2016 Petra Becker Stiftung Wissenschaftstiftung Politik Und Newsletter Projekt »Lokale, regionale und internationale Dynamiken im Syrien- Konflikt« SWP Hintergrund Syrien 24.03.2016 Petra Becker Stiftung WissenschaftStiftung Politik und Freitagsmotti 04.03.2016: Die Revolution geht weiter 11.03.2016: Erneuerung des Schwurs Politik und Sicherheit Politik und 18.03.2016: Freitag der Würde Rund um den 5. Jahrestag des Ausbruchs der Revolution beschwören alle drei Motti den Geist dieser Revolution. Mit Schwur ist das Versprechen gemeint, dass die Revolutionäre auf ihren Demonstrationen seit 2011 den Märtyrern gegeben haben: „Ihr werdet nicht umsonst gestorben sein.“ Das Motto „Freitag der Würde“ entspricht dem Motto der ersten geplanten Freitagsde- monstration am 25.03.2011. Demonstrationen kehren mit Feuerpause zurück Dass es eine neue Welle von Demonstrationen gibt, hat damit zu tun, dass es nach Inkraft- treten der Feuerpause nun an vielen Orten wieder möglich ist, auf die Straße zu gehen. Deutsches Institut für Internationale Auch wenn vielerorts weiterhin gekämpft wird (s.u. sonstige wichtige Entwicklungen), so ist in manchen anderen Orten vorsichtige Ruhe eingekehrt. Verschiedene Quellen berich- ten, dass am ersten Freitag im März landesweit in mehr als hundert Städten demonstriert wurde. Proteste auch gegen Jabhat Al-Nusra Bei den Demonstrationen der letzten Wochen ging es um den Sturz des Regimes, auf man- chen auch gegen die Feuerpause und die Verhandlungen in Genf, weil man befürchtet, dass die Verhandlungen ein Versuch sein sollen, das Regime im Sattel zu halten. Manch- mal ging es auch um lokale Forderungen, z. B. um die Einbeziehung von Daraya in die Waffenstillstandsgebiete. Interessant ist, dass die Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN) am 07.03.2016 eine Demonstration in Idlib- Stadt auflöste und den Demonstranten verbot, die Revolutionsfahne zu schwenken. Auch Medienaktivisten, die die Demonstration filmten, wurden vorübergehend festgenommen. Am 13.04.2016 stürmten Kämpfer der Jabhat Al-Nusra einen Stützpunkt der zur Freien Syrischen Armee gehörenden 13. Brigade in der Stadt Maarat Al-Nuaman (Idlib). Daraufhin formierten sich Einwohner der Stadt, stürmten das Gefängnis der JN und befreiten einen Teil der Gefangenen. Auch hier ist Hintergrund der Streit um die Symbolik der Revoluti- Dieser Newsletter ist eine Online-Veröffentlichung des Projektes »Lokale, regionale und internationale Dynamiken im Syrien-Konflikt«. Er durchläuft kein Gutachterverfahren Newsletter Projekt »Lokale, regionale und internationale Dynamiken im Syrien-Konflikt« onsflagge. JN will nur Flaggen mit dem muslimischen Glaubensbekenntnis akzeptieren. Religiöse Autoritäten bemühen sich, die Lage wieder zu befrieden. http://bit.ly/1o1Bpuk http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/30652/Aleppo_After_Truce_Peaceful_Protests_Return_t he_Forefront https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNToWzKbpLY&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGwTt7bvDK4 http://syriadirect.org/news/nusra-deflects-blame-for-protest-suppression- %E2%80%98mandate-flag%E2%80%A6sows-division%E2%80%99/ http://alsulta-alrabi3a.com/2016/03/6185.html http://bit.ly/25fz0hC https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/566746-why-did-nusra-front-attack-the-fsas- division-13 http://en.eldorar.com/node/1742 Sonstige wichtige Entwicklungen Rückzug Russlands und halbherzige Feuerpause Die Feuerpause, die am 27.02.2016 in Kraft getreten ist, wird nach wie vor nur in manchen Landesteilen eingehalten. Überall da, wo sich das Regime noch Geländegewinne verspricht, wird weitergekämpft. Das gilt für Aleppo, die östliche Ghouta, für Lattakia und für die Provinz Homs. Ein Bericht des „Syrischen Netzwerks für Menschenrechte“ vom 14.03.2016 verzeichnete seit Beginn der Feuerpause über 500 Waffenstillstandsbrüche, die zu über 90% auf das Konto der Regimekräfte oder Russlands gingen. Da die Feuerpause nicht für ISIS und die Jabhat Al-Nusra gilt, wird auch in Rebellengebie- ten weiter bombardiert. Außerdem gibt es neue Offensiven gegen ISIS und Kämpfe zwi- schen Rebellengruppen und der Jabhat Al-Nusra (s.o.). Sieht man sich allerdings die Opferzahlen an, so kann man z.B. an der Statistik des „Viola- tion Documentation Centres“ (vdc) ablesen, dass die Opfer unter Zivilisten seit Beginn des Waffenstillstandes um zwei Drittel zurückgegangen sind. Russlands militärischer Rückzug Überraschend kam die Ankündigung Russlands am 14.03.2016, es werde sich militärisch weitgehend aus Syrien zurückziehen. Bleiben werden danach allerdings die alte Marineba- sis in Tartous und der neu eingerichtete Luftwaffenstützpunkt auf dem Flughafen Hmeimim bei Lattakia. Nach einem Bericht des „Institute for the Study of War“ (isw) hat Russland tatsächlich vor allem Kampfflugzeuge aus Syrien abgezogen. Gleichzeitig hat Russland aber auch zu ver- stehen gegeben, dass es jederzeit wieder eingreifen könnte, sollte die Situation es erforder- lich machen. Russlandexperten sehen, dass Russland sein Hauptziel in Syrien erreicht hat, nämlich im internationalen Kontext seine Rolle als Großmacht zurückzuerobern. Gleichzeitig wird darüber spekuliert, ob dieser Rückzug bedeutet, dass Russland Assad fallen lässt. Informiert dürfte das syrische Regime über den Schritt kaum gewesen sein, denn erst einen Tag nach Russlands Ankündigung beeilte sich das syrische Regime zu ver- sichern, dass der Schritt mit Syrien abgesprochen gewesen sei. Seite 2 Newsletter Projekt »Lokale, regionale und internationale Dynamiken im Syrien-Konflikt« Vielmehr ist davon auszugehen, dass Russland zumindest vorerst tatsächlich Druck auf das Regime ausübt, weil es sich von Assad nicht länger vorführen lassen will. Denn nachdem Russland und die USA nach der ersten Genf-III-Runde angekündigt hatten, dass am Fahr- plan einer politischen Transition festgehalten werden und eine Feuerpause beginnen solle, hatte Assad sowohl angekündigt, bis zum Ende kämpfen als auch im April Wahlen durch- führen zu wollen (vgl. Hintergrund v. 02.03.2016). Es ist anzunehmen, dass solche Äuße- rungen Assads Russland dazu veranlassen, zu demonstrieren, wo die Entscheidungen ge- troffen werden – schon allein, um der Weltgemeinschaft zu zeigen, dass es in der Lage ist, sich gegenüber dem Regime durchzusetzen. Insgesamt hat der russische Militäreinsatz Assads Chancen am Verhandlungstisch aber wesentlich gestärkt. Interessant ist auch, dass Russland erklärte, das Ziel der Militärintervention sei weitgehend erreicht worden – angetreten war Russland nämlich Ende September mit der Behauptung, die Intervention diene dem Kampf gegen ISIS. Hier wurden aber kaum Fortschritte er- reicht. Politische Gespräche auf russischer Luftwaffenbasis Ein Indiz dafür, dass Russland seine Militärpräsenz auch weiterhin nutzen wird, um Ein- fluss auf den politischen Prozess zu nehmen, sind Berichte russischer Medien, nach denen Russland Vertreter der „patriotischen Opposition“ zu Gesprächen auf die Luftwaffenbasis Hmeimim bei Lattakia eingeladen hatte. Die eingeladenen Parteien und Gruppen aus dem Umfeld des Regimes haben aber keinerlei Einfluss in Syrien. Mindestens eine Partei de- mentierte öffentlich, überhaupt anwesend gewesen zu sein. Offensive gegen ISIS in Tadmor (Palmyra) – Hilferuf der Zivilbevölkerung Eine neue Offensive der russischen Luftwaffe auf Tadmor geht mit großer Zerstörung zivi- ler Strukturen einher. Am 22.03.2016 berichtet die Internetzeitung all4syria, der Lokalrat der Stadt appelliere an die Weltgemeinschaft, ziviles Leben in der Stadt zu schützen. Da- nach wurden in den letzten zwei Wochen 900 Luftangriffe auf die Stadt geflogen, die Hälf- te davon mit international geächteter Streumunition. Es wird von Bombardierungen von Wohnvierteln, Märkten und der antiken Stadt Palmyra berichtet. Dabei befänden sich die Stellungen von ISIS außerhalb der Stadt. Opferzahlen liegen nicht vor. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/04/we-feel-normal-for-once-lull-in-fighting- syria-ceasefire?CMP=twt_gu http://bit.ly/1M4OfOt https://www.facebook.com/dsi.forum/posts/929741047146773 http://sn4hr.org/wp-content/pdf/english/In_its_15th_day_of_the_ceasefire_en.pdf http://syriadirect.org/news/checking-in-with-syria%E2%80%99s-ceasefire-%E2%80%98on-a- scale-between-terrible-and-bad-a-marginal-success%E2%80%99/ https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=970701712979406&id=49336800071 2782&substory_index=0 https://www.facebook.com/syriadirectorg/posts/1000860299984449 http://bit.ly/25fz0hC http://en.eldorar.com/node/1650 http://all4syria.info/Archive/297012 http://bit.ly/1RfR3g8 http://www.understandingwar.org/map/russian-airstrikes-syria-february-29-march-15-2016 Seite 3 Newsletter Projekt »Lokale, regionale und internationale Dynamiken im Syrien-Konflikt« http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51511 http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/krieg-in-syrien-moskaus-plan-abzug-ohne- rueckzug/13326210.html http://www.nzz.ch/international/syrien-konflikt-russland-beginnt-truppenabzug-ld.7985 http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ausland/naher-osten-und-afrika/warum-putin-seine-truppen- aus-syrien-abzieht/story/15599025 http://www.swp-berlin.org/publikationen/kurz-gesagt/russlands-syrien-rueckzug-gewinne- sichern-risiken-minimieren.html http://bit.ly/1PosR72 http://bit.ly/1RfR3g8 http://all4syria.info/Archive/298426 http://all4syria.info/Archive/301162 https://www.facebook.com/LCCSy/posts/1343098605717272 Kurden rufen Föderalstaat aus Die PYD, die die kurdisch dominierten Gebiete Nordsyriens faktisch kontrolliert, hat am 17.03.2016 nach einer zweitägigen Konferenz mit anderen Kräften aus der betroffenen Region die Bildung eines Föderalstaates binnen sechs Monaten angekündigt. Die PYD – der syrische Arm der
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