10 | TEN IDEAS FROM OLIVER WYMAN 11

the 1990s. When deregulation fundamentally Finally, the electric utility of the future will THE NEW MAKE VS. reshaped the market, smart competitors have to be at the forefront of incubating, refocused their attention on anticipating and developing, investing in, and implementing meeting their customers’ preferences – by new energy‑related technologies. To do so, BUY CALCULUS pioneering a wide range of alternative products utilities will need to cooperate effectively and services. Most now provide not just basic with a much broader network of investors, land line phone service but also Internet, researchers, government policy makers, and How utilities can remain relevant to customers cable, and applications that enable phones development programs. who produce their own power to communicate with, and remotely manage, everything from home security systems to car It’s tempting for utilities to think customers’ temperatures to bill payments. fledgling efforts to produce their own electricity James Basden, Ponniah Vijendran, and Adam Witkowski are temporary. They’re not. They portend a new, To come out on top of this disruptive wave, more diversified wave of electrification that will utilities, too, will need to better anticipate and alter our way of life. Unless utilities become more meet their customers’ needs – even if that attuned to customers’ needs – and start acting The days of the traditional electrical power If current trends hold, our research shows, means helping them become their competition. as both expert providers and advisors – they’ll utility are numbered. Disruptive forces – a the amount of power generated by utilities’ Specifically, utilities are best positioned to be dropped from their old customers’ new combination of supportive government residential and commercial customers in understand the economics of power generation. electric equation. subsidies and advances in technologies such as Europe and North America will rise by about Instead of just trying to sell their power, they small‑scale combined heat and power boilers, 50 percent within the next five years, reaching should sell their knowledge, by advising a broad solar photovoltaics, and battery storage – are a record amount of approximately 400 terawatt range of customers on whether they should making it relatively easy and cost-effective for hours per year. That’s the equivalent of invest in making their own electricity. More James Basden is a London-based partner and global head of the Utilities practice in Oliver Wyman’s people in developed countries to unplug from $20 billion in annual revenues that could shift and more customers, ranging from businesses Energy practice. Ponniah Vijendran is a Nordic‑based the grid. Yes, fossil fuel prices have fallen, but away from utilities. By 2050, that amount will to households, turn to a variety of sources for principal and Adam Witkowski is a Zurich-based photovoltaic and battery storage prices are also reach nearly $50 billion, provided energy prices energy to ensure that their power is secure, senior consultant in Oliver Wyman’s Energy practice. dropping quickly. stay close to their present level, supportive abundant, hassle-free, cheap, and sustainable. regulations remain in place, and low‑cost But they need technical expertise and practical As a result, residences and small businesses technologies become even more commonplace. support – the core competencies of utilities. For this idea at length visit http://www.oliverwyman.com/insights/publications/ are rapidly becoming more energy 2015/jun/make-versus-buy-calculus.html independent, producing electric utilities’ Electric utilities need not accept this fate. Other In addition, like telecoms, utilities will have core product – electricity. We estimate that industries have experienced similar levels of to streamline and automate their legacy a home or business goes solar in Europe and disruption and have emerged stronger for it. operations while investing in developing their North America every two minutes. Consider the telecommunications industry in people. Employees will need to be capable of articulating and delivering a much more expansive range of new products and THE NEW BALANCE OF POWER ($ BILLION) RESIDENCES AND SMALL BUSINESSES ARE BECOMING MORE ENERGY INDEPENDENT services than is currently offered.

Residential power generation forecasts Prospective customer market size in 2050 North America 21.6 Other Europe United States Europe 82.8 37.2 18.0 Other North America 3.6

North America 10.1 Europe 34.1

United Kingdom 6.8

Italy France Germany 2014 2017 2020 2023 2030 2050 10.3 9.6 18.9 Total Europe Total North America North America Europe $82.8 Billion $21.6 Billion

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis.