The Uranium Enrichment Market The American Nuclear Energy Revival Briefing Series September 23, 2010 Ruthanne G. Neely Senior Vice President, Enrichment & General Counsel The Ux Consulting Company, LLC The Ux Consulting Company
• Founded in March 1994 • Provides nuclear fuel consulting and market information services to suppliers, utilities, investors and government agencies internationally • Publishes: – Ux Weekly (publication started in 1987) • UxC News Headlines – Quarterly Market Outlook reports with price forecasts • Uranium, Conversion, Enrichment, and Fabrication – Nuclear Power Outlook – Uranium Suppliers Annual – The Changing Geopolitics of the Nuclear Fuel Market – Country Uranium Mining and Export Polices – UxC Policy Watch briefing service – SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL • Launched uranium futures contract with NYMEX in May 2007 • Offices located in Atlanta, GA, Washington, DC, and other locations • The most complete and accurate consulting service in the market, backed by senior industry experience and strong fundamental analysis
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 2 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Source: http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-5.html
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 3 Enrichment Is A High Value Component
2009 Front-End Nuclear Fuel Market Values 2009 Market Shares of Major Enrichers 6% Conversion 4% Uranium Other (various) 46% 20%
AREVA (France)
$46/lb U3O8 28% Rosatom/TENEX (Russia) $131/SWU Enrichment 36% URENCO (Europe/U.S.) 23% USEC (U.S.) Fabrication 14% 23%
Front-End Nuclear Fuel Industry: Enrichment Industry: $18 Billion ≈ 50 MMSWU or $6.5 Billion
Note: USEC chart updated by Ux Consulting 23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 4 Changing Enrichment Technology 1995-2020
Million SWU © UxC 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Centrifuge HEU Laser Total SWU Supply
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 5 The Two GDP Facilities
USEC Paducah GDP AREVA/Eurodif Tricastin GDP
Closed by the end of 2016 ?? Closed by the end of 2012 ??
Combined optimal economic capacity of 14.0 million SWU/year
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 6 Gas Centrifuge Technology
Uses 5% of the electric power required by a gaseous diffusion plant
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 7 New Enrichment Plant Projects
New Enrichment Plant Projects – All Gas Centrifuge But One
Final Capacity Company Project Location (million SWU) USEC ACP Portsmouth, OH 3.8* URENCO URENCO USA/LES Eunice, NM 5.9* AREVA Georges Besse II Tricastin, France 7.5* AREVA Eagle Rock Enrichment Idaho Falls, ID 3.0* Facility (EREF) JNFL New Centrifuge Plant Rokkasho-mura, Japan 1.5
China Phase 4 Enrichment Plant Hanzhong, China 1.5* GLE GLE-SILEX Laser Project Wilmington, NC 3.0-6.0 * These publicly announced “final” SWU capacities could very well be increased before 2020, if market demand exists and licensing and regulatory permits are in place.
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 8 Major SWU Suppliers / Marketable Supplies 2000, 2010, 2020
Million SWU © UxC 90
75
MOX/RepU/Other 60 JNFL/China GLE Laser URENCO 45 AREVA ROSATOM 30 HEU USEC 15
0 2000 2010 2020
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 9 SWU Supply and Demand 2008-2030
Million SWU © UxC 120
110 URM Demand 100 Range Repu/Mox 90 RU HEU TENEX* 80 USEC ACP 70 USEC GDP 60 Others GLE/SILEX 50 AREVA EREF 40 AREVA GBII 30 AREVA Sales URENCO USA 20 URENCO EU 10 * Tenex production does not include 0 tails re-enrichment. 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market 10