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Appendix 7: Assessment of the Transport Sector Republic of Bulgaria Advisory Services on a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Appendix 7: Assessment of the Transport Sector August 17, 2018 Climate Change Adaptation – Assessment of the Transport Sector (Project number P160511) Country Manager: Antony Thompson Practice Manager: Ruxandra Maria Floroiu (Co-)Task Team Leaders: Philippe Ambrosi, Eolina Petrova Milova Project Coordinator: Robert Bakx This report was produced by a core team led by Rakesh Tripathi (Senior Transport Specialist) and comprising of Assen Antov (Consultant), Kristiana Chakarova (Consultant), and Carolina Monsalve (Senior Economist). The team worked under the overall guidance of Philippe Ambrosi (Senior Environmental Economist, Task Team Leader), Eolina Petrova Milova (Senior Operations Officer, Co-Task Team Leader), and Robert Bakx (Climate Change Adaptation Expert and Resident Project Coordinator), supported by Dimitar Nachev and Adelina Dotzinska (Team Assistants), Svetlana Aleksandrova (Economist), and Yeni Katsarska (Institutional Expert). The peer review of the report by Liljana Sekerinska and Stephen Ling was managed by Ruxandra Maria Floroiu (all from the World Bank). DISCLAIMERS This report was produced by the World Bank team to provide advisory support to the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW) in Bulgaria. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or of the Government of Bulgaria or its MoEW. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The team would also like to thank the Government of Bulgaria, in particular Ms. Atanaska Nikolova (Deputy Minister of Environment and Water), Ms. Boriana Kamenova (Director of the MoEW’s Climate Change Policy Directorate) and Ms. Veronika Dacheva (Expert in the MoEW’s Climate Change Policy Directorate), and other experts in government institutions; as well as the members of the National Expert Council and the National Coordination Council on Climate Change, and furthermore the participants of the Inception Workshop, the Stakeholders Consultation Meetings, the Sector Consultation Sessions, the National Stakeholders Consultation Workshop, and the Sector Prioritization Sessions, for their excellent cooperation and support in spoken and written form; and express appreciation for the comments and suggestions as well as the open exchange of ideas. The contribution of Antony Thompson (Country Manager) in the preparation and negotiation of the Advisory Program is also acknowledged here. --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- i Climate Change Adaptation – Assessment of the Transport Sector Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................................... viii Glossary .................................................................................................................................................. xi Executive Summary................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction – Climate Change in Bulgaria ............................................................................................. 5 Chapter 1. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis.................................................................. 8 1.1. Transport Sector Characteristics and Trends ............................................................................... 8 1.1.1. Overview ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.1.2. Road transport ............................................................................................................... 11 1.1.3. Railway transport ........................................................................................................... 12 1.1.4. Water transport .............................................................................................................. 13 1.1.5. Air transport ................................................................................................................... 13 1.2. Past and Present Weather Events and Their Consequences and Response Actions in the Transport Sector in Bulgaria ............................................................................................................. 14 1.2.1. Event types and impact .................................................................................................. 14 1.2.2. Event frequencies .......................................................................................................... 15 1.2.3. Causes of catastrophic events ........................................................................................ 16 1.3. Risks and Vulnerabilities ....................................................................................................... 17 1.3.1. Factors and impacts ....................................................................................................... 17 1.3.2. Projected climate change ............................................................................................... 19 1.3.3. Costs and cost estimation methods ................................................................................ 20 1.3.4. Conclusions of the RVA ................................................................................................ 21 1.3.5. Main risks and vulnerabilities ........................................................................................ 22 1.3.6. Social impacts ................................................................................................................ 29 1.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 2. Baseline – Policy Context .................................................................................................... 32 2.1. State of Awareness and Understanding of Future Consequences of Climate Change and Knowledge Gaps in the Transport Sector ......................................................................................... 32 2.1.1. Overview ....................................................................................................................... 32 2.1.2 Adaptive capacity of the stakeholders ........................................................................... 33 2.2. Experience with CCA and Transport in Other (EU) Countries ............................................. 34 2.3. EU CCA Legal Framework and Policies in the Sector.......................................................... 36 2.3.1. Overview ....................................................................................................................... 36 2.3.2. EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change ............................................................. 36 2.3.3. Common Provisions Regulation .................................................................................... 37 2.3.4. The EU Strategy for the Danube Region ....................................................................... 38 2.4. Bulgarian CCA Legal Framework and Policies in the Sector ............................................... 38 --------------------------------------- www.eufunds.bg --------------------------------------- ii Climate Change Adaptation – Assessment of the Transport Sector 2.4.1. Overview ....................................................................................................................... 38 2.4.2. Strategy for the Development of the Transport System of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2020 ....................................................................................................................................... 41 2.4.3. Integrated Transport Strategy for the Period until 2030 ................................................ 41 2.4.4. Partnership Agreement for the 2014-2020 period ......................................................... 41 2.4.5. Risk and Vulnerability Analysis and Evaluation of the Transport Sector ..................... 42 2.4.6. National Programme for Disaster Protection 2014-2018 .............................................. 43 2.4.7. National Programme for Prevention and Mitigation of Landslides on the Territory of the Republic of Bulgaria, Erosion and Abrasion on the Danube and Black Sea shores 2015–2020 .. 44 2.4.8. Critical Infrastructure Ordinance ................................................................................... 44 2.4.9. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of the Municipality of Sofia ............................... 45 2.4.10. Design codes and regulations ........................................................................................ 46 2.5. Institutional Framework and Stakeholder Community in Bulgaria ....................................... 47 2.5.1. Overview ....................................................................................................................... 47 2.5.2. Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications ........................ 48 2.5.3. Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works .................................................. 48 2.5.4. Ministry of Interior ........................................................................................................ 49 2.5.5. Road Infrastructure Agency ..........................................................................................
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