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Zulfiqar Hussain IR 2019 NDU PRR.Pdf THE DYNAMICS OF PAKISTAN-CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONS: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS IN POST 9/11 ERA PhD DISSERTATION This Dissertation is submitted to National Defence University, Islamabad in partial fulfillment for the degree of PhD in International Relations By ZULFIQAR HUSSAIN NDU-IR/PhD-11/S-006 Supervisor DR. SHAHEEN AKHTAR Department of International Relations Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University, Islamabad Pakistan, 2019 iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I want to express entire gratitude to all, who directly or indirectly helped me to complete this research study. I feel pleasure to express my unsurmountable gratefulness to my research Supervisor, Dr. Shaheen Akhtar, whose sheer guidance made me assertive and independent researcher. I have no words to applaud my Supervisor‘s patience and constant guidance in finalization of this dissertation. Her devotion, intellect, professionalism and commitment would also be a source of enlightenment for my future. I am grateful to Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi and Dr. Moonis Ahmar, renowned experts on national and regional security for their assiduous support and kind guidance during difficult times. I am grateful to Pakistan-China Relations Experts for their interviews at Quaid-e-Azam University, University of Sargodha, University of Karachi, Bahria University, Islamabad as well as National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad. I am thankful to my colleagues/researcher Arshid Farid Khan, Dr. Sajjad Malik and Mahmoor Ashraf Chaudhry for frequent discussions on various aspects of the thesis and their valuable suggestions at all junctures. I owe special thanks to the staff at the NDU library, the International Relations Department and the Dean‘s office for their relentless support round the clock. I also thank all teachers who helped me to reach at this point. I express warm recognition to Dr. Imran Ashraf, Assistant Professor, NDU for his valuable guidance and through reading of the relevant parts of study and helping me to further improve the final draft. I would like to thank Dr.Noorin Mujahid, Assistant Professor, Karachi University Dr.Shafei Moiz Hali, Assistant Professor, NDU and Ashafaq Ahmad, Assistant Professor Sargodha University for their cooperation. iv ABSTRACT The dynamics of Pakistan-China strategic relations are increasingly shaped by the global power play in Asia Pacific region which is emerging as a new pivot strategically and economically for the whole globe. China has remained most significant strategic ally of Pakistan and its relations have largely been driven by its strategic necessity to continue balance of power in region. The nuclearisation of India in South Asia and its strategic partnership with US and desire to play a soft balancer‘s role in Asia Pacific has accentuated Pakistan-China strategic relationship. Both neighboring states China and Pakistan has had expressed commonality of interests at bilateral, regional and international levels. At the bilateral level China perceives Pakistan as a viable corridor for energy resources from oil and gas rich Middle East in her regional as well as in global perspective. For Pakistan its strategic partnership with China has played very important role in country‘s security against her arch rival, the hegemonic India. The recently launched China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would not only strengthen economic partnership but also create mutual strategic interdependence between the two neighboring states. Geopolitical scenario is getting more multifaceted with the passage of time with impending challenges and enormous opportunities. The study argues that the shifting structures of security in Asian Supercomplexare increasingly reinforcing the dynamics of Pakistan-China strategic relations in the twenty first century. Using the main framework of Regional Security Complex theory it examines the growing interplay of Asian Supercomplex with the South Asian Regional Security Complex which is marked by increased US-China strategic competition in Indo-Pacific region and China‘s Malacca dilemma as well as growing Indo-US strategic partnership in the region. In search of viable alternate energy routes, China has turned to Pakistan and initiated CPEC which will allow Beijing to use Gwadar port for transportation of Middle Eastern oil to Xinjiang through the pipeline. This has created a new set of strategic complex interdependence between Pakistan and China which is likely to sustain their strategic relationship in future. v. TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS Tables 2.3 Types of security complex 87 3.2.2 CPEC Economic and Cumulative Dividends for Pakistan 140 Maps 2.4 Regional Security Complex in Asia during Cold War 88 2.4 Regional Security Complex in Asia Post-Cold War 89 3.1 Original See Route to China 109 3.2 Highway Network of CPEC 126 3.2 CPEC Three Alignments 133 vi. ACRONYMS AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEM Asia-Europe Meeting BCIM-EC Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor BMD Ballistic Missiles Defence BRI Belt and Road Initiative BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa CBM Confidence Buildings Measure CCP Communist Party of China CEP circular error of probability CNEIC China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation CNP Comprehensive National Power COD Commercial Operation Date CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CSA Currency Swap Agreement EAS East Asian Summit ETIM East Turkistan Islamic Movement EU European Union FC Financial Close FDI Foreign Direct Investment FDP Full Dialogue Partner FTA Free Trade Agreement HIT Heavy Industries Taxila HRF Heavy Rebuild Factory IPC Iran-Pakistan-China IR International Relations IS Islamic States JCC Joint Coordination Committee JeM Jaish-e-Mohammad JuD Jama‘ at udDawa KSEW Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works LCA Light Combat Aircraft LEMOA Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement Let Lashkar-e-Taiba LOC Line of Control LPG Liquefied Natural Gas MBT Main Battle Tank MFN Most Favored Nation MOU Memorandum of Understanding MRBMS Solid Propellant Medium Range Ballistic Missiles MRBMS Solid Propellant Medium Range Ballistic Missiles NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDA National Democratic Alliance NDB New Development Bank NDRC National Development and Reforms Commission NDS National Defense Strategy NDU National Defence University NSA Non State Actors NSG Nuclear Supplier Group NSS National Security Strategy OBOR One Belt One Road PAC Pakistan Aeronautical Complex PBoC People‘s Bank of China QSD Quadrilateral Security Dialogue RMA Revolution for Military Affairs RSC Regional Security Complex RSCT Regional Security Complex Theory SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area SAIOR South Asia-Indian Ocean Region SBP State Bank of Pakistan SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SEZ Special Economic Zone SIPRI International Institute of Strategic Studies SLOC Sea Lane of Communications SPA Singapore Port Authority SPSRBM Solid Propellant Short Range Ballistic Missiles SREB Silk Road Economic Belt SSG Special Service Group TAC Treaty of Amity and Cooperation TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India TDAP Trading Development Authority of Pakistan TPP Trans Pacific Partnership UNSC United Nations Security Council WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction vii CONTENTS Acknowledgments iii Abstract iv Table, Figures and Maps v List of Acronyms vi INTRODUCTION 10 CHAPTER1: LITERATURE REVIEW 27 CHAPTER 2: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 65 2.1 Core Concept of Security 2.1 Regional Security 2.1.1 Security and Power Balancing 2.2 Regional Security Complex Theory 2.3 South Asian Security Complex to Asian Supercomplex 2.4 RSC Theory and Pakistan-China Strategic Relations CHAPTER3: REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX: BILATERAL DYNAMICS OF PAKISTAN-CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONS 94 3.1: Dynamics of Security Cooperation 3.1.1 Conventional Security Cooperation 3.1.2 Civil Nuclear Cooperation 3.1.3 Maritime Security Cooperation 3.2 Dynamics of Economic Cooperation 3.2.1 Bilateral Trade & Investment 3.2.2 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CHAPTER 4: SOUTH ASIAN REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX AND REGIONAL DYNAMICS OF PAKISTAN CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONS 142 4.1 Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma in South Asia Regional Security Complex 4.2 China‘s Interests in South Asia and Pakistan‘s Role as Strategic Balancer CHAPTER 5: EMERGING ASIAN SUPERCOMPLEX AND DYNAMICS OF PAKISTAN CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONS 174 5.1 Emerging Contours of Asian Supercomplex 5.2 Growing China and US Strategic Competition 5.3 India‘s Act East Policy and Sino-Indian Relations 5.4 American Factor in China-Indian Relations 5.5 Pakistan Factor in China-India relations CHAPTER 6: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS IN POST 9/11 ERA -ANALYSIS 210 6.1 China‘s Grand Strategy and Challenges to Beijing‘s Interests in Asian Supercomplex 6.2 Is India Emerging as a Counterweight to China in Asian Supercomplex? 6.3 Pakistan‘s Growing Strategic Value for China in Asian Supercomplex 6.4 China-India Growing Trade Relations and Pak-China Strategic Partnership 6.5 Continued Conflict in Afghanistan as a Challenge to Development of CPEC CONCLUSION 254 BIBLIOGRAPHY 270 INTRODUCTION Pakistan‘s national security has been a primary driver of its strategic relationship with China. The issue of territorial security has been at center of Pakistani policies due to the threat from India. Despite its best endeavors, the Western alliances of Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) could not provide the most needed security to Islamabad
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