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Second Thoughts on Globalisation S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 7 A N A L Y S I S Second Thoughts on MARK THIRLWELL Program Director Globalisation: An Update International Economy Tel: +61 2 8238 9060 [email protected] E x e c u t i v e s u m m a r y Earlier this year, in Lowy Institute Paper (LIP) 18, Second thoughts on globalisation: can the developed world cope with the rise of China and India? we argued that the probability of a shift towards a less globalisation-friendly policy environment was on the rise. That earlier Paper suggested several factors to monitor over the coming year in order to gauge how this probability was changing over time. This Lowy Institute Analysis looks at how some of these issues have evolved in the months since Second thoughts was written. In this context, key developments include: § The collapse on 21 June in Potsdam of the latest attempt to reinvigorate multilateral trade negotiations; § The expiration, and subsequent failure to renew, the US President’s Trade Promotion Authority (TPA); § Continued tension in the US-China economic relationship, including an increasing likelihood of Congress-sponsored legislation targeting Beijing’s exchange rate policy; § A growing focus on labour, environmental and product safety standards as they apply to international trade; § The recent spike in concern about the implications of Sovereign Wealth Funds and their potential to trigger a rise in financial protectionism. This list is broadly consistent with the hypothesis presented in LIP 18 of an LOWY INSTITUTE FOR ongoing rethink in the developed world regarding the implications of INTERNATIONAL POLICY globalisation. 31 Bligh Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 8238 9000 Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 www.lowyinstitute.org = qÜÉ=içïó=fåëíáíìíÉ=Ñçê=fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=mçäáÅó=áë=~å=áåÇÉéÉåÇÉåí=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=éçäáÅó=íÜáåâ=í~åâ= Ä~ëÉÇ=áå=póÇåÉóI=^ìëíê~äá~K==fíë=ã~åÇ~íÉ=ê~åÖÉë=~Åêçëë=~ää=íÜÉ=ÇáãÉåëáçåë=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=éçäáÅó= ÇÉÄ~íÉ=áå=^ìëíê~äá~=Ô=ÉÅçåçãáÅI=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~åÇ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=Ô=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=äáãáíÉÇ=íç=~=é~êíáÅìä~ê= ÖÉçÖê~éÜáÅ=êÉÖáçåK==fíë=íïç=ÅçêÉ=í~ëâë=~êÉ=íçW= = • éêçÇìÅÉ=ÇáëíáåÅíáîÉ=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=~åÇ=ÑêÉëÜ=éçäáÅó=çéíáçåë=Ñçê=^ìëíê~äá~Ûë=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=éçäáÅó=~åÇ= íç=ÅçåíêáÄìíÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ïáÇÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ÇÉÄ~íÉK=== = • éêçãçíÉ= ÇáëÅìëëáçå= çÑ= ^ìëíê~äá~Ûë= êçäÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ïçêäÇ=Äó= éêçîáÇáåÖ= = ~å= ~ÅÅÉëëáÄäÉ= ~åÇ= ÜáÖÜ= èì~äáíó= Ñçêìã= Ñçê= ÇáëÅìëëáçå= çÑ= ^ìëíê~äá~å= áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= êÉä~íáçåë= íÜêçìÖÜ= ÇÉÄ~íÉëI= ëÉãáå~êëI=äÉÅíìêÉëI=Çá~äçÖìÉë=~åÇ=ÅçåÑÉêÉåÅÉëK= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = içïó=fåëíáíìíÉ=^å~äóëÉë=~êÉ=ëÜçêí=é~éÉêë=~å~äóëáåÖ=êÉÅÉåí=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=íêÉåÇë=~åÇ=ÉîÉåíë=~åÇ= íÜÉáê=éçäáÅó=áãéäáÅ~íáçåëK== = qÜÉ= îáÉïë= ÉñéêÉëëÉÇ= áå= íÜáë= é~éÉê= ~êÉ= ÉåíáêÉäó= íÜÉ= ~ìíÜçêÛë= çïå= ~åÇ= åçí= íÜçëÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= içïó= fåëíáíìíÉ=Ñçê=fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=mçäáÅóK= A n a l y s i s Second Thoughts on Globalisation: An Update More Second thoughts . commissioned by the Financial Times/Harris reported that many rich-country citizens now Earlier this year, we made the case that the felt that globalisation was a having a negative probability of a shift towards a less effect on their countries, reporting anti- globalisation-friendly policy environment was globalisation sentiment across six rich on the rise. This argument is set out in Lowy economies (UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Institute Paper (LIP) 18, Second thoughts on US).2 Earlier, a US poll for the NBC/Wall globalisation: can the developed world cope Street Journal had found that between with the rise of China and India?1 It runs as December 1999 and March 2007 the share of follows: respondents saying that trade agreements had ‘hurt’ the US increased by 16 percentage points Significant parts of the developed world are (to 46%) while the ‘helped’ share fell by 11 now having second thoughts about the benefits percentage points (to 28%).3 of globalisation, with many of these second thoughts prompted by the implications of the But opinion poll evidence can be difficult to globalisation-powered rise of China and India. interpret conclusively. In contrast to the Some in the rich world are scared by the FT/Harris results, the latest survey on world success of globalisation in creating powerful public opinion produced by the Chicago new competitors in global markets or spooked Council on Global Affairs and by the security implications of the resultant WorldPublicOpinion.org released in June this shifts in economic power. Others are ill at ease year suggested more positive feelings for with the increases in national inequality that globalisation, with the number of respondents seem to be a side-effect of the new global in all of the countries polled viewing economy and troubled by the implications of globalisation as ‘mostly good’ for their substantially expanded trade with low-wage economies outnumbering those saying that it developing economies. Finally, some are was ‘mostly bad.’ In the case of the United rattled by the resource security implications of States, for example, 60% of those asked said big new commodity consumers and exercised that globalisation was mostly good for the by the environmental consequences of the rapid country, as opposed to 35% who said it was industrialisation and urbanisation of the mostly bad. Australians were even more world’s two most populous economies. The optimistic, with 65% opting for mostly good result is growing pressure on policymakers in against 27% for mostly bad. 4 On the specific rich countries to temper or modify the forces issue of international trade, once again driving international economic integration. majorities in all of the countries polled found that it had a positive impact on their Certainly, in the months following the writing economies, although the highest negative of Second thoughts it has been easy enough to response was found in the United States (42%). find support for the argument that public opinion in the developed world has become On the other hand, the results did provide some more sceptical about the benefits of support for the thesis that developed economies globalisation. For example, an opinion poll increasingly see China’s growing economic Page 3 A n a l y s i s Second Thoughts on Globalisation: An Update power as a threat rather than an opportunity however, came from the new French President, (Annex II, Table 1). Their pessimistic Nicolas Sarkozy, in June this year. After assessment stood in marked contrast to the having successfully persuaded his European more positive view held by many developing colleagues to agree to amend Article 2 of the economies. old Constitutional Treaty by dropping ‘free and undistorted competition’ as a policy goal, he The latest, 2007 iteration of our own Lowy was widely quoted as saying ‘The word Institute Poll sought to test Australian public ‘protection’ is no longer taboo . Competition attitudes towards freer trade.5 The results paint as an ideology, as a dogma, what has it done a reasonably complex, but nevertheless for Europe?’8 For some observers, Sarkozy’s positive, picture. They suggest that Australians comments were emblematic of a Europe on average feel that international trade delivers contemplating a flirtation with old-fashioned net benefits to Australia, but that they are also mercantilism or economic nationalism.9 worried about some of the consequences. So, for example, roughly two-thirds of those polled Recent months have also seen analysts agreed with the propositions that freer trade continuing to pick over the possible helped make the world a more stable place, and consequences of the changing distribution of that it helped increase prosperity both in economic and political power. One interesting Australia and in other parts of the world. On new slant on the security implications of the other hand, roughly the same proportion globalisation has been the discussion agreed with the notion that freer trade put surrounding the rise of so-called ‘authoritarian Australia at a disadvantage because of our high capitalist’ powers, a definition intended to labour and environmental standards, and about capture China (along with Putin’s Russia), and half agreed with the two propositions that freer the consequences of the prospective emergence trade costs more jobs than it creates, and that of a non-democratic but economically freer trade leads to more economic and social advanced ‘Second World’ that would be in a inequality in Australia.6 Our polling also position to challenge the established powers.1 0 confirmed that Australians remained relaxed The risk of economic ‘warfare’ between rising about the implications of China’s growing and established powers has also received some economic power, although they have become journalistic attention.1 1 more sceptical regarding the benefits of the bilateral preferential trade agreement that Canberra and Beijing are currently negotiating. Tracking the policy shift Politicians in the developed world have been In LIP 18 we recognised that since the forces showing signs of re-evaluating the implications driving globalisation forward were still of globalisation. In the United States, for powerful, any dramatic swing in the policy example, there have been signs that there are pendulum was not a done deal. We therefore votes to be had in economic populism.7 suggested four key areas to monitor for Perhaps one of the most striking comments on evidence of such a change:1 2 this matter since Second thoughts was written, Page 4 A n a l y s i s Second Thoughts on Globalisation: An Update • The fate of the Doha round of world At the time of writing Second thoughts, trade trade talks; talks had been resumed in February 2007, following their suspension in July 2006 due to • The response of the US Congress to the irreconcilable differences between leading Bush administration’s desire to renew Trade Promotion Authority; participants over agricultural liberalisation.
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