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News & Review

WWW.HUDSON.ORG FALL/WINTER 2009

HUDSON WELCOMES NEW EXAMINING THE SCHOLARS AND STAFF RUSSIAN MILITARY

JOHN SHENEFIELD, former In August, a Hudson Institute conference on the present and Asso ciate Attorney General of the future of the Russian military, held in conjunction with the U.S. and former Assist - Army War College, was broadcast live on C-SPAN. The numer- ant Attorney General in charge of ous at ten d ees included members of the media, re searchers, congressional aides, officials from the U.S. Department of State, and representatives of foreign embassies. For nearly five decades, Hudson has had a record of closely ex - amining the Soviet Union and now the Russian Fed eration. Senior Vice President for International Programs and Policy S. Enders Wimbush, himself an analyst of the former Soviet Union, keynoted the conference, pointing out that it was being held in tribute to the late Mary FitzGerald, a Hudson scholar who passed away in April. Fluent in Russian, FitzGerald analyzed Russian and Chinese the Antitrust Division of the U.S. military writings for the Department of Defense. Drawing on Sov- Department of Justice, joined iet era sources, she defined the revolutionary CONTINUED ON PAGE 27 Hudson as an Adjunct Fel low in September. At Hudson, Shenefield will re- search and publish on antitrust law, regulatory policy, intel li gence, and national security law. “John Shenefield is a leading scholar and distinguished practitioner of anti trust law,” says Hudson CEO Kenneth Weinstein. “With his ex- ten sive government and private practice experience, he adds a new di mension to an out standing anti - trust team at Hud son anchored by CONTINUED ON PAGE 26 CONTENTS CHAIRMAN’S Fall / Winter 2009 LETTER

1 Hudson Welcomes NEW SCHOLARS

EXAMINING THE RUSSIAN MILITARY Dear Friend of Hudson Institute, 2 Chairman’s LETTER In this edition of News & Review, we celebrate the life and works of former 3 Hudson MEDIA colleagues of the Institute— and Asia expert Senior Fellow Laur- HIGHLIGHTS ent Murawiec; social philosopher and former Hudson trustee ; and international security specialist Research Fellow Mary FitzGerald. 4 named to Israeli Post These fine scholars will be greatly missed, and their pioneering intellectual 5 Kenneth Weinstein thought and courage to challenge conventional wisdom will continue to serve IN IRAQ as inspiration.

6 BRADLEY SYMPOSIUM In the past few months, Hudson scholars have been helping bring clarity to con- Making Conservatism cerns that go to the heart of our economic well-being, such as health care Credible Again reform, tax policy, and instability of union pension plans. On the international 7 Scholar in the Spotlight front, our scholars have shined a spotlight on the abuses of religious blasphemy CAROL C. ADELMAN laws, on disturbing political trends in , on the threat that poses to its neighbors, and on the ongoing case for human rights in China. 8 HUDSON EVENTS Hudson’s research, analysis, and commentary cover a broad palette of impor- 13 New York BRIEFING tant public policy issues, offering quality scholarship with depth and fore- COUNCIL sight. As no better case in point, I am proud to welcome our newest scholar, 14 LAURENT MURAWIEC John Shenefield, former Assistant Attorney General during the Carter admin- 1951 – 2009 istration in charge of the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice.

15 Congressional Testimony As you turn your mind to end-of-year giving, I ask you to reflect on the im- by DIANA FURCHTGOTT- portance of our scholars’ work as they contribute to alternative, practical, and ROTH and NINA SHEA realistic policy options—especially at a time when uncertainty too often 16 Hudson PUBLICATIONS frames our policy debates. Your continued support means a great deal to our scholars and staff, and we look forward to keeping you informed of the 19 Are WORKERS’ Institute’s exciting work. RETIREMENTS Safe? With best wishes, 20 COMMENTARY

27 HUDSON INTERNS 2009

Photos by Philip Ross ALLAN R. TESSLER Chairman

2 HUDSON INSTITUTE HUDSON MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

■ NEWS ■ PBS (WorldFocus) ■ TV5 (FRANCE) Carol Adelman on international Gabriel Schoenfeld interviewed Kenneth Weinstein interviewed aid, October 12 on , October 6 on health care, September 10

■ CNN (Lou Dobbs) ■ FOX BUSINESS NEWS ■ BBC on troop levels Chuck Blahous interviewed on Hanns Kuttner interviewed in Afghanistan, October 8 the cost of living, October 6 on President Obama’s health care address, September 9

■ FRANCE 24 Lee Smith on Syria, August 19

■ FOX BUSINESS NEWS Jeremiah Norris interviewed on health care and cooperatives, ■ CNBC WORLD ■ CNN August 17 Irwin Stelzer interviewed on Anne Bayefsky interviewed on British politics, October 6 the United Nations, ■ () September 22 Diana Furchtgott-Roth on health For exclusive Hudson videos, please visit our YouTube page at care reform and the economy, www.YouTube.com/HudsonInstitute August 12

FALL / WINTER 2009 3 UZI ARAD NAMED TO ISRAELI POST

Uzi Arad, a former Hudson In sti - tute Professional Staff Mem ber ■ CNN (Anderson Cooper) who worked un der Herman John Walters interviewed on Kahn in the 1970s, was named drug policy, July 31 Na tional Security Ad vis er to Is rae li Prime Minister Ben ja min Net an yahu and Chair man of the Is raeli National Security Council in April 2009. “Uzi Arad is one of the world’s leading geo strat egists,” said Hud son Insti tute CEO Ken neth ■ PBS (NewsHour) Wein stein. “And through out his Tevi Troy interviewed on health distinguished career in , he has maintained close contact with his care reform, July 28 friends and former colleagues at Hudson.” Arad, who is the founding Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy of the Interdisciplinary Center at Herzliya, was the founder and Chairman of the Herzliya Conference, Israel’s prem iere annual conference dedicated to national security policy, which attracts heads of state and leading officials and strategists from around the globe. He also served as Professor at the Institute’s Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy. Arad joins a list of Hudsonians in foreign government service that includes Husain Haqqani, the current Pakistani Ambassador to the ■ CNN (Campbell Brown) United States, and Jaime Daremblum, former Costa Rican Ambas- Judge interviewed sador to the United States. on the confirmation hearings for Justice Sotomayor, July 13

■ CTV (CANADA) ■ MSNBC ■ CNN en Español Christopher Sands, interviewed Richard Weitz on the U.S. policy Jaime Daremblum interviewed on the G8 summit in Italy, July 7 toward , June 14 on the coup in Honduras, June 3

4 HUDSON INSTITUTE KENNETH WEINSTEIN jacket or to be constantly accompanied by the armed guards who took me around in an armored vehicle. Kempinski Hotels is building a twenty-four story luxury hotel next to the conven- tion center, where we did our training seminar; the convention IN IRAQ center could have been in Asia or Europe. Iraq has evolved immensely since the spring of 2007. Back then, as the surge and the Anbar Awakening were beginning to take effect, the Iraqis claimed that they were beginning to see the emergence of a new civic culture—unique in the Arab world— of open discussion on political issues. That culture has now emerged, and what has been achieved—despite the ongoing sui- cide bombings—is remarkable. Whereas think tanks faced basic questions about their operations in 2007, their questions this year were far more subtle, evidence of a culture of more open discourse among Iraqis in general and across ethnic lines. The tremendous distance the Kurds feel from the rest of Iraq is real. The Kurds have yet to be convinced of a positive reason

Kenneth Weinstein, second from the left, to want to remain in Iraq, but inertia and fear of unrest keep meets with Iraqi leaders them from turning their de facto autonomy into a de jure one. The Kurdish elections in July, a vote for change and trans- In August, Hudson CEO Kenneth Weinstein traveled parency, were a positive development that will make a plur alist under the auspices of the International Republican region even more democratically accountable. The Kurdish Institute to Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, to lead elections are a model for the rest of the Iraqis. a training seminar for twenty-five leaders of Iraqi Despite these political strides, the Iraqi economy has think tanks. This is the second time Weinstein has slowed down significantly, with the global economic down- vol unteered to do one of these sessions. The last turn drying up investment from the Gulf. Sixty percent of time, he led a two-day seminar in Amman because Iraqi GDP comes directly from oil revenue, and the decline in the security situation did not permit training inside these revenues is also playing a share in the recession. Oil Iraq. What follows is a summary of his observations. production capacity is still below the levels achieved in the mid-1970s, and uncertainty over Iraq’s oil laws and rampant ERBIL is a bustling and, at least since 2005, a safe city of corruption has kept Western energy companies from trying to more than one million inhabitants. I felt no need to wear a flak gain a share in the market. Though the CONTINUED ON PAGE 26

A new mall under construction in Erbil FALL / WINTER 2009 5 James O’Gara James

In June, Hudson Institute’s 2009 Bradley Symposium featured 2009 , ’s popular governor and former Hudson Institute BRADLEY CEO, and Congressman (R–WI). Offering commentary on Daniels’ and Ryan’s remarks were of the Ethics and Public SYMPOSIUM: Policy Center and editor of , and , editor of . MAKING Senior Fellow and Director of the Bradley Center for Philanthropy and Civic CONSERVATISM Renewal William Schambra noted that this was the first time Con- gressman Ryan and Governor Daniels had been asked to come together to dis- CREDIBLE AGAIN cuss the future of conservatism in broader terms. Ryan commented on the results of the last election: “There was a financial fail- ure under a conservative Republican administration. In the time-honored tradi- tion, voters repudiated the president’s party, and they went elsewhere for help.” Daniels said conservative ideas need to reconnect with middle-class Ameri- cans: “Our presentation and our ideas must be born not in abstractions, but in an understanding and a connection. If we are really to present a people’s agen- For event transcripts, video da, we must not only assert, but assert with credibility, that we understand what and audio highlights, and is going on in the lives of everyday people.” media coverage, please The conference was carried on C-SPAN and covered in major newspapers visit www.Hudson.org/ and blogs, including the Tribune, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the 2009BradleySymposium Los Angel es Times, and .

Above photo: Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels speaks to reporters, including the Washington Examiner’s .

6 HUDSON INSTITUTE CAROL C. ADELMAN is a Hudson Senior Fellow and the Director of the Cen- ter for Global Prosperity (CGP). Adelman lectures, writes, and advises poli- cymakers and the media on economic growth, foreign aid, global philan- thropy, and international health care issues. Her work has been in the fore- front of research on international giving by the private sector. She devel- oped and oversees the main publication of the CGP—the annual INDEX OF SCHOLAR GLOBAL PHILANTHROPY AND REMITTANCES. The Index documents the magnitude of contributions from the private sector and reports on new and IN THE innovative private giving practices and technologies. The Index is the first comprehensive compilation of U.S. international private giving to develop- SPOTLIGHT ing countries. CAROL C. When Adelman first started the Index—just over five years ago—her work was considered controversial. But as Chairman of the Hudson Board ADELMAN of Trustees Allan Tessler notes, “Thanks to the work of Carol Adelman and the CGP, today almost every major organization—from the OECD to the IMF and World Bank—now admits that private development aid is a critical way to bring growth and prosperity to the developing world.” Previously, Adelman was a career foreign service officer with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), living and working in Africa. She also developed projects in Latin America and Asia. She has worked extensively with foreign governments, NGOs, and companies in- volved in a variety of development endeavors including economic development projects, philanthropy development, health care pro- grams, and educational development initiatives. In her doctoral thesis, Adelman examined the causes of infant mortality in the barrios of Lima, Peru. She served as the Assistant Administrator at USAID—a presidential appointment—from 1988 to 1993. She was in charge of all foreign aid programs in Asia, the Mid- dle East, and Central and Eastern Europe during the fall of the Berlin Wall, supervising more than 400 employees with a budget topping $3 billion. From 1993 to 2000, she headed international services for two different consulting companies—one private and one publicly held —where she identified investment opportunities for private U.S. companies in overseas hospitals, insurance companies, and health care systems. In 2000, she arrived at Hudson. Adelman has been published in numerous publications, includ- ing , , and Foreign Affairs; her most recent is her piece in . Her doctorate and master’s degrees in Public Health are from the Johns Hopkins University; her mas- ter’s degree in Foreign Service, from Georgetown Univer sity; and her bach- elor’s degree in Political and German, from the University of Colorado and University in Germany. —Kacie Marano

For more on Carol Adelman, please visit www.Hudson.org/Adelman

FALL / WINTER 2009 7 Amy Kauffman with Ambassador Michael Oren

Hudson OCTOBER

U.S.-ISRAELI RELATIONS AT A EVENTS CROSSROADS? CHALLENGES TO THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP

Although Israel and the United States continue to share a deep friendship and see eye to eye on most strategic issues, they have differences of opinion on some of the most crucial strategic questions facing both countries. The Uni ted States and Israel share a common concern about Iranian nuclear ambitions, yet differences remain on an optimal solution to the problem. Americans are uncertain and divided about the best approach. In light of this new climate, will Israel’s special relation- ship with the United States—which is a cornerstone of Israel’s National Security Strategy—suffer? Ambassador Michael Oren, Israeli Ambassador to the United States, keynoted this day-long event. Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Middle East Policy Meyrav Wurm ser introduced. Other speakers included , Peter Beinart, Senior Fellow Douglas Feith, Jay Lef- Video and audio of kowitz , Aaron David Miller, Martin Peretz, and Senior Hudson events are avail- Fellow Gabriel Schoenfeld. able on our website at www.hudson.org/events SEPTEMBER

REFLECTIONS ON THE REVOLUTION IN EUROPE: IMMIGRATION, ISLAM, AND THE WEST

Europe has undergone a demographic revolution it never expected. Europe is, for the first time in its modern history, a continent of immigrants, with 40 million of its 375 million

8 HUDSON INSTITUTE Christopher Caldwell Heidi Metcalf Little, Mamadou Koulibaly, and Jeremiah Norris inhabitants living outside their countries of birth. By over- for Global Prosperity. Hudson CEO Kenneth Weinstein estimating its need for immigrant labor and underestimat- hosted this event. ing the culture-shaping po ten tial of religion, Europe has trapped itself in a problem to which it has no obvious solu- THE ASIAN AIRPOWER BALANCE: tion. In his remarkable and critically acclaimed new book, CHALLENGES FROM CHINESE AND Reflections on the Revolution in Europe, Christopher RUSSIAN FIFTH-GENERATION Caldwell frames the issue of Muslim immigration to FIGHTER PROGRAMS Europe and argues that Islam has challenged the European way of life at every turn. July marked the defeat of congressional attempts to re- Caldwell is Senior Editor at The Weekly Standard, a verse the Obama administration’s decision to end produc- columnist for the Financial Times, and a contributing tion of the F-22, currently the world’s only fifth-generation writer for the New York Times Magazine. Commenting fighter. With Russia and China developing fifth-generation on the book were Justin Vaïsse, the Brookings Institu - fighter programs, the United States could find itself ceding tion; Hillel Fradkin, Hudson Senior Fellow and Director its aerial dominance. In cooperation with the International of the Center on Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Assessment and Strategy Center, Hudson Institute exam- Muslim World; and Hassan Mneimneh, Visiting Fellow ined the strategic implications for U.S. airpower in Asia. at Hudson Institute and former Director of the Iraq Speaking at this conference were Richard Fisher, the Memory Foundation. Hudson CEO Kenneth Weinstein International Assessment and Strategy Center; Rebecca introduced the event. Grant, the Lexington Institute; and Reuben Johnson, a correspondent for Jane’s Information Group. Hudson IVORY COAST BRIEFING: CEO Kenneth Weinstein introduced the event, and Hud - MAMADOU KOULIBALY son Institute Senior Fellow moderated the discussion. This event featured Mamadou Koulibaly, the noted economist and President of the National Assembly of DO WE NEED A NONPROFIT CAPITAL Ivory Coast. Koulibaly, a distinguished champion of free MARKET? markets, a tireless critic of corruption, and a leading skep- tic of official development assistance, explained how In Billions of Drops in Millions of Buckets: Why Philan - transparency, market-based economics, and property thropy Doesn’t Advance Social Progress, philanthropy rights —especially in the agricultural sector—can provide a adviser and Root Cause Senior Fellow Steven H. Gold- basis for economic growth in Africa. Koulibaly is the berg argues that American charity “haphazardly distrib- author of numerous books, including Le Libéralisme, utes more than $300 billion of charitable donations among nouveau départ pour l’Afrique noire (1992) and La pau- more than two million nonprofits…with almost no consid- vreté en Afrique de l’Ouest (2003). Koulibaly serves on eration given to which organizations can make the best use the Board of Advisors of Hudson Institute’s Center of the money. As a result, fragmented funding fails to mar-

FALL / WINTER 2009 9 Clement Wani Konga Seth Cropsey and S. Enders Wimbush Jamie Daremblum

shal vital growth capital that strong nonprofits need to sador to the United States and the United King dom, as achieve meaningful reductions in poverty, illiteracy, vio- well as the former representative of Honduras to the lence, and hopelessness.” Is this an accurate assessment of United Nations. Senior Fellow and Director of Hudson’s American philanthropy? Should we devise a nonprofit cap- Center for Latin American Studies, Ambassador Jaime ital market that would more efficiently direct funding to our Daremblum, introduced and moderated the event. best nonprofits? Hudson Institute’s Bradley Center hosted Goldberg IS KHARTOUM BEHIND RECENT and a panel of experts to address these and other ques- VIOLENCE IN SOUTH SUDAN? tions. Panelists included Katya Andresen, Network for Good; Robin Rogers, Queens College and the City Uni- Central Equatoria—including the southern capital of Juba versity of New York; and Howard Husock, the Man - and the important town of Yei—is one of the areas of hattan Institute. Senior Fellow William Schambra mod- South Sudan hardest hit by the Lord’s Resistance Army erated the discussion. and other militias that are known to be supported by Khartoum. Tens of thousands have been displaced by POPULIST THREATS TO DEMOCRACY attacks in Central and West Equatoria States, as well as IN CENTRAL AMERICA other southern Sudanese areas. Lt. General Clem ent Wani Konga, the Governor of Central Equa toria State, As the Honduran crisis unfolded in the early months of the provided an update on the attacks and described the con- Obama administration, Venezuelan-style populism contin- nection between the militias and the National Congress ues to imperil democratic institutions and the dynamics of Party regime in Khartoum. international trade in Central America. At the same time, The discussion was introduced by Senior Fellow Nina organized crime, drug trade, and gang violence continue to Shea, Director of the Center for Religious Freedom, and affect regional security. Hudson Institute’s Center for Latin moderated by Jimmy Mulla, President of Voices for Sudan. American Studies—in partnership with the Institute for For- eign Policy Analysis—convened a panel to discuss the polit- JULY ical and economic challenges to democracy in the region. Discussants at this event included: Eduardo Ulibarri, NEPAL: RISING RELIGIOUS INTOLER - president of the Insituto de Prensa y Libertad de Expres- ANCE AND COMMUNAL DIVIDE ión (IPLEX) in San José; The Honorable Regina Vargo, former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for the Ameri- Hudson’s Center for Religious Freedom hosted Nishchal cas; Thomas W. O’Donnell, a 2008 U.S. Fulbright Scho - N. Pandey, Director of the Centre for South Asian Studies lar to Venezuela; Diana Villiers Negroponte, a non resi- in Kathmandu. In addition to his many other writings, he is dent Senior Fellow at the ; and the author of the books Nepal’s Maoist Movement and Impli- Honorable Roberto Flores Bermudez, the former For- cations for India and China (Manohar, 2005) and India’s eign Minister of Honduras, former Honduran Ambas - North-Eastern Region: Insurgency, Economic Dev el -

10 HUDSON INSTITUTE Sukhbaatar Batbold Zeyno Baran, Jytte Klausen, and Nina Shea opment and Linkages with South-East Asia (Manohar, Bandler, former U.S. Ambassador to Cyprus, moderated 2008). Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Relig - the event. Senior Fellow Nina Shea introduced the event. ious Freedom Nina Shea moderated the event. JUNE HOW PHILANTHROPIC IS THE PHILANTHROPIST? MONGOLIA’S RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES, , The Bradley Center for Philanthropy and Civic Renewal CHINA, AND RUSSIA and The Chronicle of Philanthropy cohosted a panel discussion featuring NBC’s The Philanthropist co-creator, On the eve of Mongolian Foreign Minister (now Prime executive producer, and writer Tom Fontana, along with Minister) Sukhbaatar Batbold’s visit to Washington and TacticalPhilanthropy.com’s Sean Stannard-Stockton; meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his first the Council on Foundation’s Steve Gunderson; and stop was Hudson Institute. Batbold offered his views on The Chronicle senior writer Ian Wilhelm. Senior Fellow Mongolia’s evolving relations with China, Russia, the and Dir ector of Hudson’s Bradley Center William United States, and Japan. Hudson CEO Kenneth Schambra moderated the discussion. Weinstein moderated the discussion.

ENDANGERED CULTURAL AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY IN CRISIS: RELIGIOUS SITES IN CYPRUS’ NORTH CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AMERICAN RECOVERY After intercommunal violence between Cyprus’ Greek and Turkish communities erupted in 1963 and culminated in The automobile industry worldwide is in the midst of an the Turkish occupation of the northern part of the island unprecedented crisis. The bankruptcies of Chrysler and in 1974, the state of Cyprus’ rich architectural, cultural, GM have made taxpayers major shareholders in these car- and religious legacy has been deteriorating through loot- makers. What does the future hold for the industry? Are ing and destruction. Although international efforts—such the Asian and European assemblers in North America far- as those of USAID—have succeeded in protecting some of ing any better than their American counterparts? this priceless cultural property, implementation of interna- To discuss the causes of the current crisis, the conse- tional agreements has remained spotty at best. quences for the U.S. and global economies, and the out- To discuss these issues, the Center for Religious Free- look for the future of automotive production, Hudson dom brought together Michael Jansen, a Middle East welcomed Thomas Klier, Senior Economist at the Federal analyst for the Irish Times, Klaus Gallas, a German art Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Joseph White, the Wall and architectural historian, and Charalambos Chot za - Street Journal’s Senior Editor for Regulation/Washington. koglou, a professor of Byzantine Art and Architecture at Klier is the coauthor of Who Really Made Your Car? and the Hellenic Open University in Athens. Donald K. White is the coauthor of Comeback: The Fall and Rise of

FALL / WINTER 2009 11 CENTER FOR RELIGIOUS FREEDOM FALL LECTURE SERIES

The Center held a lecture series entitled “Lifting the Theocratic Iron Curtain: Examining the Application of Muslim Blasphemy and Apostasy Rules in the Contemporary World,” which is the focus of a forthcoming Center book.

Richard Weitz, David Satter, Andrei Piontkovsky SEPTEMBER 15: Hate Speech Laws, Islamic Blasphemy Structures, and Freedom of the American Automobile Industry. Hudson Institute Speech: The Case of . Featured the Senior Fellow Christopher Sands moderated the panel. Rev. Mark Durie, distinguished Aus tralian analyst of Southeast Asian Islam. HEALTH CARE REFORM: THE LONG-TERM FISCAL IMPACT SEPTEMBER 23: Blasphemy and Inquiry: The Cartoons that Shook the World. Hudson Visiting Fellow Hanns Kuttner prepared a paper Featured Danish author Jytte Klausen. that assessed the long-term fiscal risk from health care Moderated by Senior Fellow Zeyno Baran. reform and the tools available for managing that risk. Join - Covered by C-SPAN. ing Kuttner to discuss his paper and other questions on health care reform were James Capretta, Ethics and Pub- OCTOBER 5: Defection from Islam: The lic Policy Center; Alice Rivlin, Brookings Institution; C. Politics of Belonging and the Cost of Eugene Steuerle, Peter G. Peterson Foundation; and Paul Religious Freedom. Featured Ziya Meral, Van de Water, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Turkish authority on apostasy from Islam.

OCTOBER 7: Pakistan’s Blasphemy Laws: Bowing to Extremism. Featured Mujeeb Ijaz and Amjad Mahmood Khan, representatives of the Ahmadiyya Muslim American Community.

OCTOBER 13:Apostasy, Blasphemy, and Other Sharia Laws in the Modern World. Featured the Rt. Rev. Michael Nazir-Ali of the Church of England, British analyst of radical Islam.

NOVEMBER 4: Islam in the Public Space: the Case of Morocco. Featured Moroccan sociologist Mohsine El Ahmadi, visiting at “Schambra’s essay anticipated exactly what is . happening on health care.” —Washington Post’s David Broder devoted an NOVEMBER 12: Feed the Donkey First: op-ed to William Schambra’s National Affairs Freedom of Religion and the Geopolitics of article on President Obama’s approach to policy. Human Rights. Featured Emory Law School’s Abdullahi Ahmed An-Na’im.

12 HUDSON INSTITUTE HUDSON INSTITUTE’S NEW YORK BRIEFING COUNCIL

SEPTEMBER 8 AMB. DORE GOLD / THE RISE OF NUCLEAR IRAN SEPTEMBER 16 / WHY ARE JEWS LIBERALS? SEPTEMBER 29 FRANK LUNTZ / WHAT AMERICANS REALLY WANT OCTOBER 8 / WHAT NEXT? OCTOBER 13 JORDI GUAL / ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER THE G20 OCTOBER 15 MICHAEL NAZIR-ALI / ISLAM IN THE U.K. OCTOBER 19 BEN-DROR YEMINI / THE GOLDSTONE REPORT OCTOBER 21 GEERT WILDERS / DEATH TO FREE SPEECH OCTOBER 26 JOHN FUND / OBAMA’S FIRST YEAR: AN ASSESSMENT OCTOBER 28 SHOAIB CHOUDHURY / SOUTHEAST ASIA NOVEMBER 5 TEVI TROY / OBAMA’S HEALTH CARE NOVEMBER 6 GEN. / AFGHANISTAN NOVEMBER 23 ITAMAR MARCUS / JERUSALEM UNDER ABBAS DECEMBER 1 WAFA SULTAN / A GOD WHO HATES DECEMBER 3 RALPH PETERS / RUSSIA DECEMBER 10 / WHERE ARE WE NOW?

HERBERT LONDON WITH

Hudson President Herbert London’s busy schedule has included speaking engagements at the Center for Security Policy (at which he was this year’s Freedom Flame Award winner), the University Club, Young Professionals in Foreign Policy, and . He has also appeared on numerous media outlets, including Fox News Channel, CNN’s Lou Dobbs, Fox News Radio, Pajamas Media, and the Show.

For information, contact Laddyma Thompson at 212-232-8721 or email [email protected]. Also, please be sure to visit Hudson New York’s website for commentary at www.hudsonny.org

FALL / WINTER 2009 13 LAURENT HUDSON INSTITUTE MOURNS MURAWIEC THE LOSS OF SENIOR FELLOW 1951-2009 LAURENT MURAWIEC

Laurent Murawiec was a big thinker who published with ease in French, Ger - man, and English. He was a well known intellectual in France, a gadfly who challenged the conventional wisdom by drawing on an encyclopedic knowledge of history, political thought, and theology. Murawiec, a tireless friend of liberty, was a leading light among a small circle of dissident Parisian intellectuals op- posed to the reigning wisdom in France. In , he served as an advisor to the French Minis try of Defense and taught the history of economic planning at the École des Hautes Études en Sociales (EHESS). He later taught military analysis and cultural anthropology at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Before joining Hudson in 2002, he was a senior international policy analyst with the RAND Corporation. Murawiec’s intellectual legacy includes pioneering research on Islamic radi- calism, the future of Asia, the revolution in military affairs, and cyber warfare. “Laurent said and wrote At RAND, and then at Hudson, he undertook numerous studies for the Office what he thought. His work of Net Assessment at the Pentagon. He was well known as a forthright analyst on jihadism is—at a time among strategic thinkers in the United States, Europe, and Asia. when it is extremely hard Murawiec’s August 2002 briefing to the Defense Policy Board at the Pen ta - to speak against prevailing gon on Saudi links to Islamic terrorism—which were later published in Europe opinions—an astonishing and the United States—nearly created a major diplomatic crisis between the and clear statement of United States and Saudi Arabia. his reflection on the rela- Murawiec never shied from controversy. His work was published nonethe- tionship between radical less by the world’s finest academic publishing houses, including Odile Jacob and Islam and Islam itself. Cambridge University Press, which published his most recent book, The Mind of Jihad (2008). Laurent saw the threat His op-eds appeared in major newspapers throughout the world, including and said so—convincingly, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Die Welt, and the Financial Times, and he was a fixture eloquently, and bravely.” on French television analyzing U.S. politics and international affairs. —Seth Cropsey, Hudson Senior Fellow

“Laurent was someone of remarkable intellectual depth. He was a very learned man capable of connecting philosophy and history to To watch a video of the most important contemporary issues of the day. He was drawn to Hudson’s memorial tribute to Laurent Murawiec, visit the United States by its openness, vibrancy, receptivity, and stimulat- www.Hudson.org/Murawiec ing nature of its intellectual life. He was really patriotic, as only new- comers who be lieve in America can be.” —Robert Lieber, Professor of Government, Georgetown University

14 HUDSON INSTITUTE EXCERPTS OF CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY BY HUDSON SCHOLARS

■ NINA SHEA testifies ■ DIANA FURCHTGOTT- before the Tom Lantos ROTH testifies before Human Rights Com mis- Senate Committee on sion of the Committee Health, Education, on For eign Affairs Labor, and Pensions October 8 October 15

A key U.S. policy goal is to help Pakistan, Our tax system should not make it harder a country of great strategic impor tance, for women to work. The penalty falls both eliminate the threat to it from religious on women struggling to escape from extremism and related instability. Pakis- poverty, and on married women who tan’s support of anti-blasphemy laws— have invested in education, hoping to both national and international—thwarts shat ter glass ceilings and compete with this goal. Pres ident Asif Ali Zardari has men for managerial jobs. Throughout taken some helpful steps, including the the income spectrum, higher taxes appointment of the first cabinet-level offi- would exacerbate the penalty for work- cial on relig i ous minorities, Minister ing. Our health insurance system needs Shah baz Bhat ti, who has been a cour age - to change, but not in the way envisaged ous cham pion of religious freedom for by Congress. Rather than mandating one more than ten years. In the glare of pub- expensive plan, Congress would do bet- licity surroun ding the Gojra attacks, Paki - ter to change the current health insurance stan’s government has vowed to review tax credit from employers to individuals or reform the antiblasphemy laws. The and allow people to pick their own port - gov ernor of Punjab, site of many of the able plans, as they do with other forms of minority cases, has called for their repeal. insurance. That would help women—and The United States must make a priority of men too. It is vital that women’s pro - supporting this effort. It serves both our gress in the labor force continue, and human rights ideals and our na tional the main route to this progress is an security interests to do so. abundant supply of job opportunities.

FALL / WINTER 2009 15 ■ WHY ARE JEWS tively is that the five states authorized LIBERALS? by the Nuclear Nonprolif eration Treaty By Norman Podhoretz (NPT) to possess nuclear weapons have (Doubleday) not shown sufficient “credibility” on the issue of nuclear disarmament. The Adjunct Fellow Norman Podhoretz paper proves that what is known as offers a cogent historical account of the “credibility thesis” is both implau- anti-Semitism in the West to show sible and unsupported by the evidence why Jews concluded that they had available. much more to fear from the right than the left. But since the Six Day ■ COMPARING War of 1967, he argues, this pos ition UNION-SPONSORED has no longer made sense, and yet AND PRIVATE PENSION most Jews go on supporting the liber- PLANS: HOW SAFE al agenda. Reviewing the history of ARE WORKERS’ Jewish political attitudes and thor- RETIREMENTS? oughly examining the available evi- By Diana Furchtgott-Roth Nuclear dence, he then demonstrates that the and Andrew Brown Weapons, usual explanations are inadequate. (Hudson Institute) Pension Plans, ■ NUCLEAR See page 19 for a full description of DISARM AMENT, this publication. Canada, Iraq, NONPROLIFERATION, Asia, and more AND THE ‘CREDIBILITY ■ UNDERSTANDING THESIS’ AND PRESERVING By Christopher Ford THE FOUN DATIONS (Hudson Institute) OF AMERICA’S ADVANTAGE IN ASIA Senior Fellow Christopher Ford ex- By John Lee amines how it has become an article of (Hudson Institute) faith in the arms control community that one of the reasons the world has This paper by Visiting Fellow John not been able to rein in the prolifera- Lee looks at the foundations of U.S. tion of nuclear weaponry more effec- dominance in Asia and argues that

16 HUDSON INSTITUTE the beginning of the end of American lems unique to particular border ■ ONE VIEW strategic primacy in Asia is common- crossings and traveler types, differen- OF THE UNITED STATES ly asserted but usually poorly argued. tiating policies for the dissimilar AND IRAQ The paper looks at why China creates Canadian and Mexican borders, and By Max Singer a strategic conundrum for the United establishing channels for local com- (Hudson Institute) States but also presents the greatest munity input into the over-centralized challenge to the stability and contin- Department of Homeland Security This report is an integrated view of ued existence of the informal U.S.-led policymaking process. the reasons for going into Iraq, our security hierarchy in Asia. Lee looks major mistake in changing from lib- at the question of preserving U.S. ■ START TREATY erators to occupiers and why we dominance in Asia—particularly vis- RENEWAL AND made that mistake, why most people à-vis rising Chinese power and influ- AMERICA’S thought we were doomed to fail, and ence—and offers anal ysis and pre- STRATEGIC how their expectations turned out to scriptions on how the United States POSTURE be wrong. This paper also examines can prolong and even enhance its (Summarizing the dangers ahead and the benefits position of strategic primacy in the through excerpts from what the United States did in region. the Final Report of Iraq. the Congressional ■ TOWARD A NEW Com mission on the ■ WILL CHINA FAIL? FRONTIER: IMPROVING Strategic Posture of THE LIMITS AND THE U.S.-CANADIAN the United States) CONTRADICTIONS OF BORDER By Douglas Feith, Abram MARKET SOCIALISM By Christopher Sands Shulsky, and Jack David By John Lee (Brookings Institution) (Hudson Institute) (Centre for Independent Studies) This report by Senior Fellow Chris - The majority of this paper is a sum- topher Sands analyzes in detail the mary of the work done by the bipar- This second edition by Visiting Fellow pre- and post-2001 U.S. management tisan Congressional Commission on John Lee argues that the Chinese Com- of the northern border and recom- the Strategic Posture of the United munist Party is no longer able or will- mends a return to greater local stake- States. Setting out key U.S. strategic ing to pursue further fundamental holder input in border policies. arms goals, this paper provides back- reforms. Instead, they are stuck in a Eschewing the “one-size-fits-all” ap- ground and crucial provisions of the holding pattern in order to remain in proach to U.S. land borders, the START treaty renewal. power. Constrained by a decentralized report recommends addressing prob- model of authority and administration

FALL / WINTER 2009 17 that is highly corrupt and inefficient, Beijing has only been able to plaster over institutional cracks. Rather than Hudson Institute Board of Trustees moving toward a modern, successful ALLAN R. TESSLER civil society—as Japan, Taiwan, and Chairman of the Board have done—China is tak- Chairman of the Board, Epoch Holdings Corporation ing a more dangerous and unpre- WALTER P. STERN dictable path. Chairman Emeritus Vice Chairman, Capital International ■ THE LONG-TERM FISCAL IMPACT OF LINDEN S. BLUE ROBERT H. MCKINNEY HEALTH REFORM: Vice Chairman, Boca Grande, FL General Atomics RISKS AND RISK STEPHAN MINIKES MANAGEMENT Of Counsel, Chairman, Home Valu Interiors Xenophon Strategies OPTIONS By Hanns Kuttner JOHN CATSIMATIDIS EBRAHIM MOUSSAZADEH President and CEO, President, Matrix Creations (Hudson Institute) Red Apple Group YOJI OHASHI JACK DAVID Chairman of the Board, This paper by Visiting Fellow Hanns Senior Fellow, All Nippon Airways Co. Ltd. Kuttner compares how health care Hudson Institute CAROLYN S. PARLATO reform options manage fiscal risk GERALD DORROS President, C & C Shorelands, Inc. against a set of scenarios. In the most Medical Director, E. MILES PRENTICE III optimistic scenario, all the financing The William Dorros-Isadore Feuer Partner, Eaton & Van Winkle LLP for new subsidies comes from within Interventional Cardiovascular Disease Foundation STEVEN PRICE the health care sector. The common President and CEO, trend between cost growth in subsi- RUSS GERSON CEO, The Gerson Group FiveWire Media LLC dies and offsets allows health care JACK ROSEN reform to be fiscally balanced. How - JAN HENRIK JEBSEN Chairman, Gamma Applied CEO, Rosen Partners LLC ever, where the offset pool includes Visions Group S.A. new revenue, offsets slip behind costs LAWRENCE KADISH New York, NY in the long run. If all offsets came Old Westbury, NY JOSEPH SCHMUCKLER from new revenue, costs would be DEBORAH KAHN CUNNINGHAM Chairman, Mitsubishi one-third higher than revenue at the Consultant, DKC Group UFJ Securities USA end of twenty years. MARIE-JOSÉE KRAVIS WILLIAM D. SIEGEL Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute New York, NY

GEORGE JAY LICHTBLAU SUSAN M. STEINHARDT Chairman and CEO, New York, NY Communication Networks LLC KENNETH R. WEINSTEIN HERBERT I. LONDON Chief Executive Officer, President, Hudson Institute Hudson Institute CURTIN WINSOR, JR. ROBERT MANKIN Chairman, American Chemical Consultant Services Company

WILLIAM MATASSONI JOHN C. WOHLSTETTER CEO, OMBI Consulting Senior Fellow,

18 HUDSON INSTITUTE ARE WORKERS’ RETIREMENTS SAFE?

In September, Senior Fellow and Director of Hud son’s Cen ter for Em ployment Pol- icy Diana Furchtgott-Roth and re searcher Andrew Brown pub lished Compar- ing Union- Spon sored and Private Pension Plans: How Safe are Work ers’ Retire- ments? An up date of Furcht- gott-Roth’s sum mer 2008 study, Union vs. Private Pen sion Plans: How Se cure Are Union Mem bers’ Re - tirements?, the new report finds that collectively bar- gained union pension plans perform poorly when com- pared to plans sponsored by single employ ers for nonunion employees. “Our report reveals why organized labor is so eager to gain new mem- bers through proposed legislation like the Employee Free Choice Act— they need to help bankroll these failing pension plans with new dues- paying members,” said Furchtgott-Roth. “With the current low levels of union membership, unions are doing their best to recruit new members. The advertised benefits of joining a union sound appealing, but there is a widespread pattern of poor per- formance among collectively-bargained benefit pension plans that every- one should know about.” This report illuminates the causes of the underlying problem of under- funding. The study goes on to analyze the general health of pension plans in the United States and—in particular—documents eight case histories that illustrate issues in pension funding. It also examines the role political interests may play in union membership and pension funding, and ana- lyzes the link between proposed legislation, the Employee Free Choice Act, and underfunding of pensions. The report presents evidence of the dispar- ity between union and nonunion pension plans, and calls on union mem- bers to recognize their leaders’ responsibility to close that gap.

To purchase or download a copy of Comparing Union-Sponsored and Private Pension Plans: How Safe are Workers’ Retirements?, please visit www.Hudson.org/Bookstore

FALL / WINTER 2009 19 out with its second estimate of the Bau- cus bill, reflecting the original bill together with amendments that have been hammered out in committee delib- Commentary erations. Only in government account- ing could an additional 29 million peo- ple receive new health coverage with a savings of $81 billion. By this congres- sional logic, America could insure all 6 billion people in the world at a savings To read the full text of these excerpted interest rates soaring, a real possibility if of trillions of dollars. articles, please visit www.hudson.org. he adds to the downward pressure on the dollar by increasing the red ink al- Christian Science Monitor, September 26 Wall Street Journal, October 11 ready pouring over the nation’s ledgers, as frightened congressional Demo crats NINA SHEA LAWRENCE KADISH are demanding. (WITH JAMSHEED CHOKSY) “TAKING THE NATIONAL “IRAN’S NUCLEAR CRISIS: DEBT SERIOUSLY” Slate magazine, October 9 OBAMA COULD PLAY THE HUMAN RIGHTS CARD” Washington is now debating whether LEE SMITH to create social programs it can’t afford. “IF TEHRAN GETS THE BOMB” Ultimately, when free to express their recently commented that beliefs and ideas, Iran’s people will be the when it comes to the national deficit, vot- Human history is nothing but the record best guarantors of their nation’s fi delity ers will put things in order. I certainly of nations that have miscalculated their in world affairs. As Britain, China, hope so. However, it’s imprudent to rely capacity to project power, the willing- France, Germany, the United States, and just on “hope.” Americans need to take ness (and ability) of their allies to sup- Russia sit down with Iran, they should notice, stand up, and remind our elected port them, and the determination of see Ahmadinejad’s posturing for what it officials that in a democracy the people their rivals to reshape the world after is and address not only the issue of can change bad leaders. their own image. As the debate over Iran nuclear strategy, but also human rights. policy has devolved from strategy to pop The current Iranian regime’s three- Sunday Times (London), October 11 psychology, the fact is that no regime decade-long record of intolerance and consciously wishes to bring its own ex- violence cannot be ignored. IRWIN STELZER istence to an end. And yet states and “THE CLOUDS PART BUT UNDER - regimes do nonetheless cease to exist. Forbes magazine, September 21 LYING PROBLEMS REMAIN” No sane person believes that the United States is suicidal, but if a nation will not MARIE-JOSÉE KRAVIS There is no indication that the adminis- or cannot defend its way of life, it has “LIFE EXPECTANCY tration finds a dollar decline undesir- taken the first step toward its inevitable HUMBUG” able, if it is gradual, despite Geithner’s decline, which is tantamount to suicide. strong-dollar statement. It is the possi- The United States has a much more bility of a dollar collapse that worries Real Clear Markets, October 8 diverse population than other devel- some at the . The same fear oped countries, and infant mortality among investors has triggered a flight to DIANA FURCHTGOTT-ROTH rate is decidedly a function of the moth- gold. Such a development would force “THE BAUCUS BILL: er’s choices (notably, age, marital status up interest rates, aborting the recovery. AN OCTOBER TRICK” and drug use). Teen pregnancy rates are Obama has no desire to face the elec- higher, and pregnant women in the torate in 2012 with high inflation and The Congressional Budget Office came United States are more likely to be liv-

20 HUDSON INSTITUTE ing alone than in other countries. These ope. It also makes Americans more facts provide a partial explanation— vulnerable and the U.S. a less reliable not an excuse—for the comparatively ally. Moreover, it will likely go down IRVING KRISTOL higher rate of U.S. infant mortality. in history as the start of a new nuclear 1920 – 2009 They point to the need for substantial arms race, with increased proliferation changes in public health, education, and more countries going nuclear. KENNETH WEINSTEIN, HILLEL FRADKIN, AND IRVING KRISTOL and medical practices but also remind us that complex socioeconomic prob- Wall Street Journal Online , September 17 lems will not be resolved solely by changes in the health care system. PAUL MARSHALL “CONTINENTAL DRIFT” Real Clear World, September 21 Europe has intractable problems with JAIME DAREMBLUM many immigrants, especially Muslim “THE CHAVEZ-IRAN ALLIANCE: immigrants, and, of course, many immi- A MENACE TO THE WESTERN grants have intractable problems with Hudson Institute mourns the HEMISPHERE” Europe. In Reflections on the Revolu- loss of our longtime friend tion in Europe, Christopher Caldwell and former trustee Irving Kris- Iran remains the top state sponsor of ponders the current state of a continent tol—writer, editor, and social terrorism. I find it remarkable that Ven- where the aging indigenous population ezuela’s growing alliance with the Islam- is gradually being supplanted by young critic—who died on Septem- ic Republic has not garnered more atten- newcomers. Today’s immigrants might ber 18. He was 89. Kristol’s tion in the U.S. media, or among U.S. be considered hostile to European val- wisdom and vision led to a officials in Washington. Think about it: ues, except that Europe itself increasing- career as one of the most in - The government of an oil-rich, strategi- ly has only a foggy sense of what those fluential social philosophers cally significant country in the heart of values might be. of our time. Latin America has embraced the world’s leading terror sponsor as it works to Weekly Standard Online, September 17 Hudson President Herbert build nuclear weapons, and members of London noted: “Irving was that same government have directly SETH CROPSEY both an inspiration and intel- aided terrorist organizations. The Vene- “OBAMA’S APPEASEMENT” lectual force who had a pro- zuela-Iran relationship is now the chief found effect on the course of threat to stability in the Western Hemi- The Obama administration has decided human events.” sphere. We ignore that relationship at to dishonor a security commitment our peril. made to one of the United States’ most An editor of Com mentary reliable and dependable democratic magazine,cofounder of The Wall Street Journal Europe, September 17 allies [Pol and], and to placate [Russia] Public Interest, and foun der an increas ingly authoritarian, corrupt and publisher of The Nation al state that helped Iran build its nuclear JACK DAVID Interest, Kristol had a distin- power plant at Bushehr and supplies Iran (WITH MELANIE KIRKPATRICK) guished career which earned “A NEW NUCLEAR-ARMS RACE” with significant military equipment such as air-defense missiles. The decision is a him the Presidential Medal Call it a shot heard round the world. sign of weakness, a confirmation that of Freedom—the nation’s The Obama Administration’s recent an - this admin istration does not see value in highest civilian honor— from nouncement that it is abandoning a defending against ballistic missiles, and a George W. Bush in 2002. Bush-era plan for a missile-defense sys- wholesale invitation to aggressive behav- tem in Europe is not just about Eur- ior, not just from Russia.

FALL / WINTER 2009 21 It is time to give serious thought to mak- kind of conduct in space that could National Review Online, September 10 ing our foreign aid expenditures work gravely threaten U.S. national interests more effectively. What matters is less a and international peace and security, ANNE BAYEFSKY redrawing of organization charts, than and building capabilities that will “OBAMA AT THE UN” a serious consideration of how these improve our ability to cope with the dollars are delivered and whether they space-denial strategies others seem to be As Obama looks forward to his make- are responding to local ideas and actual- developing. That is how to get “space over as global conciliator and poten- ly reaching partners with stakes in the weapons” right. tate, all the signs point to a train wreck outcome of the investments. A new that has the potential of making health- business model for foreign aid is the Washington Post, August 25 care reform look easy. Two problems main hope—perhaps the only hope— are putting a wrench in his plans: for fixing a broken system. CHUCK BLAHOUS Iranian president Mahmoud Ahma- “WHAT DROP IN BENEFITS?” dinejad and Lib yan president Col. Investor’s Business Daily, August 28 Moammar Qaddafi. Both are coming If our policies for seniors existed in an to the UN’s New York headquarters JEREMIAH NORRIS ideal world, benefits would be adjusted with to-do lists that do not include “THE HEALTH CARE MATH upward when prices go up and down- improving Obama’s poll numbers. EVERYONE AVOIDS” ward when prices go down. The intend- ed burden-sharing of Medicare Part B Jerusalem Post, September 2 The health overhaul debate has generat- premiums would not shift with price ed plenty of heat. Yet no one has offered swings in the general economy. Alterna- LELA GILBERT a solution to one vital and unavoidable tively, the nation’s most powerful org- “ANNE FRANK FROM BAGHDAD” dimension: the future. In twenty years anization for the elderly would respon- the country will have many more retired sibly explain to its members that the From 1948 to 1970, 850,000 to a mil- people as a proportion of the popula- deviations from these ideals are largely lion Jews fled or were expelled from tion. The population will therefore suf- working in their favor. But this is not an Arab lands. Many of these forgotten fer from far higher rates of chronic dis- ideal world. Accordingly, Congress is be- refugees were members of ancient Jew- eases such as diabetes and cancer. If a ing pressured to “do something” about ish communities that predated Christi- public option will exist for health insur- the COLA issue, which would translate anity. More than a few were wealthy, ance, the cost of paying these bills will into further costs facing taxpayers and powerful, and successful. Nearly all of be an intolerable burden on the dwin- increased payments to the seniors bene- them left their homes with little more dling band of economically active U.S. fiting from these technical quirks. than the shirts on their backs, leaving taxpayers. behind houses, bank accounts, invest- Wall Street Journal, August 24 ments, personal treasures, and their New Paradigms Forum, August 27 means of livelihood. They resettled, GABRIEL SCHOENFELD mostly in Israel. From then until now, CHRISTOPHER FORD “WHY SHOULD WE UNDERWRITE they have received no reparations, no “GETTING READY TO GET ‘SPACE RUSSIAN REARMAMENT?” inventory of their lost possessions, and WEAPONS’ WRONG” virtually no consideration in negotia- In Russia, President Dimitry Medvedev tions for Middle East peace. President Obama should shift his focus announced in March, is embarking on from the crowd-pleasing chimera of a a “comprehensive rearmament.” These Weekly Standard, August 31 “space weapons” ban—a conceptually were not idle words. Russia has been flawed approach supported for all too constructing the new Topol-M, a mod- CAROL ADELMAN obvious reasons by some who do not ern intercontinental ballistic missile. It (WITH NICHOLAS EBERSTADT) wish us well—to a genuinely valuable continues to move forward with the “HELP THAT HELPS” agenda: restricting and deterring the new sea-launched Bulava ballistic mis-

22 HUDSON INSTITUTE sile to be carried aboard the equally , August 21 Taipei Times, August 19 new and state-of-the-art Borey nuclear- powered submarine. It has resumed production of its Tupolev-160 super- RONALD RADOSH JOHN LEE sonic strategic bomber. Although the “WHAT HARRY COULD TEACH “WHY THE U.S. WILL LEAD THE total size of Russia’s arsenal is not ex- OBAMA ON ISRAEL” ‘ASIAN CENTURY’” pected to grow—old systems are being retired as new ones arrive—the net President Obama might have thought As China and India rise and Japan effect will be a more effective strategic that pressing the Israelis on settlements becomes more “normal,” they will bal- nuclear force. would lead to a breakthrough, especial- ance each other within the U.S.-led hier- ly now that the Arab states are nervous archy to ensure that the United States Weekly Standard, August 22 over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but per- remains on top and one or the other haps he needs to be better informed does not dominate. If China makes a CHARLES FAIRBANKS about the conflict’s history. By initia- bid for regional hegemony, it will find “ON THE BRINK” ting the peace process with demands it difficult to resist the structural con- that Israel freeze settlements, he has straints placed on it within this hierar- The United States is far more powerful given the impression that if only it chy. U.S. power is in relative decline, than Russia, which has an economy in would comply, there’d be peace. And but that is no bad thing. False tri- the range of South Korea’s, and that he has given the Palestinians and Arab umph alism breeds poor discipline. But superiority has multiplied vastly since leaders a rationale for again refusing to a sense of strategic vulnerability breeds we strove successfully against the Soviet accept their neighbor’s legitimacy. Not interdependency, which has always Union. Only the tunnel vision that surprising, a recent survey shows only 6 been the key to successful U.S. leader- comes from immersion in a crisis can percent of Israelis consider Obama a ship in Asia. conceal this dominant reality and blind friend. our president to his real power. National Review, August 10 Wall Street Journal, August 20 Eurasianet, August 21 JAMES CAPRETTA RONALD DWORKIN AND TEVI TROY RICHARD WEITZ “AN ANESTHESIOLOGIST’S “WRONG BIG PICTURE, “PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TAKE ON HEALTH CARE DANGEROUS FINE PRINT” ESSENTIAL FOR LEGITIMIZING REFORM” KABUL GOVERNMENT” There are only two problems with the Quality of care will inevitably decline. emerging Democratic plan to reform The early results represent such a small That decline will come first in obstet- health care in the United States: the big percentage of the overall vote that they rics. At the hospital where I work, two picture and the fine print. From a macro cannot be used to project the final tally anesthesiologists work in obstetrics perspective, the bills now moving through with any accuracy. But that has not almost around the clock, so that a House and Senate committees call for a stopped both Karzai and Abdullah from wom an in labor need not wait more combination of employer and individual proclaiming victory. Richard Holbrooke, than five minutes for her epidural. mandates to force more, though not all, the Obama administration’s special rep- Other hospitals are less fortunate, and Americans to purchase federally set levels resentative for Afghanistan and Pakis- have on staff at most one anesthesiolo- of insurance coverage. Some Americans tan, has called for restraint, saying time gist in obstetrics. The economic crunch —mainly those without full-time jobs— and patience were needed for the ballot- will eventually force these hospitals to would be eligible for a new entitlement to counting process to function smoothly. cover obstetrics “when anesthesiology discounted premiums. The federal gov- “We always knew it would be a disputed is available,” meaning in between regu- ernment would try to tell doctors and election,” Holbrooke said during a news lar operating room cases. hos pitals what constitutes appropriate conference in Kabul. medical practice.

FALL / WINTER 2009 23 have condemned the murder and prom - Edmonton Journal (Canada), August 8 Weekly Standard, August 3 ised a thorough investigation. The fact remains, however, that one after another, CHRISTOPHER SANDS KENNETH WEINSTEIN the opponents of Kadyrov are being mur- (WITH GREG ANDERSON) “THE MASTER OF ROOM 205” dered, the security services in Chechnya “THE SUMMIT PANDEMIC” are totally controlled by him, and the Frank McCourt was a wonderful teach - entire republic lives in fear. Against this The international community has be- er. He wanted us to take our blinders off, backdrop, Putin and Kadyrov are said come inundated with summits. During reflect on the world broadly, get off the to have a father-son relationship. This ’s presidency, there was professional treadmill, and note the should give U.S. officials pause about the opening of the United Nations Gen- things around us. He was able to touch placing too much faith in the moral qual- eral Assembly, the G7 and NATO; today us so effectively, I suspect, because, just ities of the leaders in either Moscow or our leaders go to all kinds of meetings, as he sought to escape the suffocating Grozny. the G20, NATO summits, WTO negoti- provincialism of Limerick, he knew ations, the Summits of the Americas, many of us were seeking to escape the Wall Street Journal, July 27 Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation parochialism of our own families’ lives. (APEC) meetings, and UN climate change WILLIAM SCHAMBRA talks, to name a few. We even have hybrid Weekly Standard Online, August 4 “CHARITY AIMED AT CHANGE” meetings such as last June’s G8 Summit in L’Aquila, Italy, where the number of at - ROD HUNTER It is often noted that, after billions of tending countries expanded, arguably “INTO AFRICA” dollars in government spending over transforming the meeting into something the past several decades, we have seen like the “G8+BRICs+Friends.” Ultimately, prosperity, stability, and free - precious little progress in solving dom in Africa will depend on the labors American’s major social problems, Wall Street Journal, August 3 of Africans themselves, not the munifi- from family breakdown to dysfunc- cence of rich countries. But the United tional schools. But what about Ameri- DOUGLAS FEITH States can lend a helping hand by launch- ca’s nonprofit sector—organizations AND ing an inclusive development initiative that concentrate their efforts on ex- “WHY REVIVE THE COLD WAR?” that aligns aid incentives and markets in actly such problems, with money support of African countries’ domestic from charities, trusts, and personal The Obama administration’s nuclear reforms and economic integration. The philanthropies? They too spend enor- weapons policies—including its treaty success of Ghana and other reformers mous sums. Is their record any better? talks with Russia—affect the way Amer- would then provide a model for others ica’s friends and potential adversaries across the continent, with a real prospect Asia Chronicle, July 20 view the integrity of the U.S. deterrent. of fulfilling the aspiration that Truman The wrong policies can endanger the articulated half a century ago. CHARLES HORNER United States directly. They can also “RISING CHINA AS cause other states to lose confidence in Forbes Asia, July 21 TRANSFORMED CHINA” the American nuclear umbrella and to seek security in national nuclear capabil- DAVID SATTER A radical restructuring of China is rac- ities. If that happens, the dangers of a “NATALYA ESTEMIROVA” ing ahead, but our understanding of how nuclear war somewhere in the world it will influence the People’s Republic of would go up substantially. It would not In the case of the murder of Estemirova, China’s behavior as an international act- be the first time a U.S. government however, the Chechen and Russian auth - or is lagging behind. We assume that the helped bring about the opposite of its orities’ public relations techniques have relation between domestic and foreign intended result—but it might be one of improved. Both Russian president Med- will work in one direction only—that the costliest mistakes ever. ve dev and Chechen president Kadyrov the newer New China will easily convert

24 HUDSON INSTITUTE its greater mass directly into more kinet- sion to reclaim Europe from the grip of Wall Street Journal, June 4 ic energy, as if its current internal inco- totalitarianism. Even the notoriously dis- herence does not already im pose real passionate Europeans realize that this is constraints on what it can do in the HERBERT LONDON consecrated ground, a place where angels world. We need to think more about “THE MEANING OF BLOODY spread their wings to honor the deeds of those constraints and how they will OMAHA” youthful warriors. No St. Cris pin speech- shape the strategic choices of a China es were necessary here, for this Band of Bro- that will be Transformed China, rather There is simply no way to describe the sac- th ers knew what need not be stated: They than the Rising China we know today. rifice Americans made on the D-Day inva- were saving Europe from enslavement.

New York Times Online, June 16 HUDSON INSTITUTE MEYRAV WURMSER LEADERSHIP AND “WHY ENGAGEMENT FAILED” COMMUNICATIONS The Iranian regime is a thug-run theo- fascist state without internal Iranian sup- port. We could persist in our attempts at engagement, but that would further Kenneth R. Weinstein Herbert I. London legitimize the regime, which has proved Chief Executive Officer President it means what it says—and it says that it John P. Walters S. Enders Wimbush is unwilling to slow its amassing the Executive Vice President Senior Vice President, International power to destroy Israel and the West. Or Programs and Policy we could turn to a deter rent posture, but this regime seems to hold an apocalyptic Deborah L. Hoopes Grace Paine Terzian Vice President and Vice President, mindset shaped in the bloody trenches of Chief Financial Officer Communications the Iran-. Amanda Sokolski Katherine Smyth Vice President, Development Corp. Sec. and Program Manager Hudson.org, June 5 Mitzi H. Pepall Ioannis Saratsis S. ENDERS WIMBUSH Art Direction and Design Research Associate and Communications Coordinator “RESET RUSSIA” Philip Ross Audio Visual Specialist and James Bologna President Obama must establish Ameri- Events Coordinator Associate Editor/Media Liaison can interests clearly with respect to Rus- Intern Anne Poulsen provided assistance with this newsletter. sia. In the strong likelihood that Russian leaders pursue strategies that are contra - HUDSON INSTITUTE ry to American interests, Obama will want 1015 15TH STREET, N.W., SIXTH FLOOR WASHINGTON, DC 20005 to have put in place strategies that offer PHONE 202.974.2400 / FAX 202.974.2410 the United States powerful hedging posi- tions by way of strong relationships with © 2009 Hudson Institute Hudson Institute is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization other key actors. Engaging Russia to the dedicated to in no vative research and analysis that promote global extent that it serves the interests of both security, prosperity, and freedom. countries is essential. But President Obama should be leery of conceding too much to a self-professed adversary whose www.hudson.org back is against the wall.

FALL / WINTER 2009 25 WEINSTEIN IN IRAQ CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5 unease over President Obama’s Iraq We are now in a situation where the United States has spent untold billions policy. Most of the think tank officials Iraqis have a republic. What remains to in Iraq, there is little popular sentiment with whom I chatted feel that the next be seen is whether they can keep it. We for the Americans outside of the Kur- year will be crucial in the fight for a free can anticipate a bumpy road ahead that dish region. Moreover, the United Iraq. If the security situation remains will surely strain Iraq’s embryonic States —unlike the Brit ish —has not left relatively stable, the extremists will, for democracy and democratic civil culture. popular symbols that the public can all intents and purposes, be even more Yet dealing with these Iraqis who are on identify with, such as the British hospi- discredited, and the nation’s economic the front lines of building a civic culture tal system—still regarded as the best in and political life may well have the nec- in their country was a deeply moving the country. In addition, there is great essary time to evolve. experience that provides some hope.

HUDSON SCHOLARS CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 master’s degree in Inter na tional Rela - and including Judge Robert Bork.” tions from American Uni versity and As Associate Attorney General in has lived in Ga bon, Nepal, the United the Carter Administration, Shenefield Arab Emirates, and Australia. had supervisory re spon sibility for all Also in July, KEVIN SEARCY civil litigation in which the United joined Hudson as Assistant to Ex- States was a party. Since leaving gov- ec utive Vice President John Walters ernment service in 1981, he has writ- and to Vice Presi dent for Devel op - ten and testified before Congress on ment Aman da Sokolski. He previous- na tional security law issues. He also ly served as a Latin American Policy served as chairman of the 1000-plus Analyst for the Office of National JOHN LEE lawyer firm Morgan, Lewis & Bock- Drug Control Policy, and later as Dep- ius. Shenefield retired from the full- uty Press Secretary. Searcy graduated time practice of law in 2008, and is from the Uni versity of South Carolina. now Counsel to the firm. He also In August, APARNA PANDE serves on the board of WETA. joined Hudson as a Research Assoc - In June, Hudson welcomed JOHN iate working with S. Enders Wim - LEE as a Visiting Fellow. Lee is a For - bush, Senior Vice President for Inter- eign Policy Fellow at the Centre for national Programs and Policy. She is Indepen dent Studies (CIS) in Sydney. also a doctoral candidate and lectur- He is the author of Will China Fail? er at Boston University in the field of (See page 17.) international relations. Pande is cur-

Lee is one of the foremost experts rently writing her dissertation on APARNA PANDE in Chinese development and the for- Pakistan’s foreign policy. eign pol icies of states in East and Sout heast Asia as well as Indian sec - urity policy. His work has been pub- lished in major newspapers in cluding the Wall Street Journal , the Inter - national Herald Tribune , the Wash- ington Times, , and the Sunday Times (London). KACIE MARANO joined Hud son in July. Marano serves as Exec utive

Assist ant at Carol Adel man’s Center KACIE MARANO KEVIN SEARCY for Global Prosperity. She holds a

26 HUDSON INSTITUTE SUMMER INTERNS 2009

RUSSIA CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 Kansas State University, MIKHAIL impact of emerging technologies on TSYPKIN of the Naval Postgraduate HUDSON their military doctrine, strategy, opera- School, and Hud son Senior Fellow tional concepts, organizational struc- RICHARD WEITZ. INSTITUTE tures, and defense industry imperatives. Even before the August 2008 Geor- needs your financial The conference sought to assess re- gian War, Russian leaders had been cent developments relating to the Russ- making a series of statements trumpet- support to continue its ian armed forces as well as Russian ing Russia’s revised military strength. innovative re search with political-military activities in general. After the war, Russian President Dmit- Present ers discussed current defense ry Medvedev boasted that the victory positive policy impact. reform efforts, Russian perceptions of had demonstrated “Russia is a state to Please consider con- security trends in Europe and Asia, new be reckoned with.” trib uting to Hudson. Russian concepts of national security, The conference speakers pointed and Russian views regarding future out, however, that much of Russia’s Be sure to visit the new war, information warfare, the role of mil i tary equipment is obsolete despite Support Hudson site at nuclear weapons, and Russia’s efforts the Russian government’s rhetoric. The www.hudson.org to develop its forces for power projec- Georgian War also exposed major op - tion beyond their borders. erational deficiencies in Russian train- to find out what benefits Distinguished defense analysts— ing and tactics. The panelists noted that await you as a sponsor many of whom had worked with Fitz- Russia’s future ability to sustain its cur- Gerald—provided new insights re gard - rent high levels of defense spending in of Hudson Institute. ing the Russian armed forces, including the midst of the worldwide recession is www.hudson.org STEPHEN BLANK of the U.S. Army also suspect. War College, who co-organized the Video and audio of this event are avail able conference, DALE HERSPRING of at www.Hudson.org/Russia0809

FALL / WINTER 2009 27 HUDSON INSTITUTE

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