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Outsiders and the Impact of Party Affiliation in Ecuadorian Presidential Elections Rachel Lynne Hammond University of South Florida

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Outsiders and the Impact of Party Affiliation in Ecuadorian Presidential Elections Rachel Lynne Hammond University of South Florida University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School 7-14-2004 Outsiders and the Impact of Party Affiliation in Ecuadorian Presidential Elections Rachel Lynne Hammond University of South Florida Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the American Studies Commons Scholar Commons Citation Hammond, Rachel Lynne, "Outsiders and the Impact of Party Affiliation in Ecuadorian Presidential Elections" (2004). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/1063 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Outsiders and the Impact of Party Affiliation in Ecuadorian Presidential Elections by Rachel Lynne Hammond A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Arts Department of Department of Government and International Studies College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Harry Vanden, Ph.D. Paul Dosal, Ph.D. Linda Whiteford, Ph.D. Date of Approval: July 14, 2004 Keywords: Ecuador, political parties, Gutiérrez, regionalism, democracy © Copyright 2004, Rachel Hammond Dedication For the Ecuadorian people who struggle daily to survive, whether in their native country or as immigrants in a strange and distant land; and for the leaders of the country, that God may guide them to find a strategy of governing that allows for representation, equality and justice. Que Dios les bendiga. Acknowledgments First and foremost, I rejoice with my Lord who has given me the opportunity to experience Ecuador and its people, and allowed me to intimately study the country that I have grown to love deeply. I also praise God for my wonderful, encouraging parents that have been my support system through countless days of writing, editing, rewriting, and editing again. I love them both. Dr. Brian Wallace, my professor and friend from Capital University, introduced me to Ecuador with his gentle guidance during my undergraduate years. He encouraged me to take charge of my own education and allowed me to spend multiple semesters doing research and volunteer work in Ecuador. He gave me the thirst for knowledge about Latin America. Dr. Harry Vanden and his high standards have made this document something I am proud of, and I am deeply grateful for the time and energy he has dedicated to my education over the past two years. He has taught me to not accept less than the best from myself, and that is a lesson that will be with me for all of my life. His mentoring, along with that of Dr. Paul Dosal, has shaped my academic life. They have humbled me with their dedication to my growth as a scholar and as a person. In addition, Dr. Linda Whiteford’s assistance on the thesis was greatly appreciated. Finally, I want to thank my friends, who probably know more about Ecuadorian politics than they ever wanted to, the Latin American and Caribbean Studies office for their support, and my fiancé, Juan Carlos Ramirez, who saw me through the final stages of this project and kept me motivated. Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................iii Chapter One Literature Review ............................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 Democratic Systems.................................................................................. 6 Political Parties .......................................................................................... 7 Populism, Neopopulism, and Personalism............................................... 15 Delegative Democracy............................................................................. 17 Outsiders and Case Studies .................................................................... 19 Ecuadorian Literature............................................................................... 23 Chapter Two Research Design and Methodology .............................................. 32 Case Study Design .................................................................................. 32 Field Experience ...................................................................................... 38 Document Analysis .................................................................................. 40 Historical Development............................................................................ 40 The 2002 Elections .................................................................................. 43 Chapter Three The Return to Democracy and Ecuador’s First Three Elections. 47 Historical Construction............................................................................. 47 José María Velasco Ibarra and his Impact on the Political System.......... 54 Transition to Democracy and Political Parties.......................................... 63 1979-Widespread Support for León Roldós ............................................ 66 1984-León Febres Cordero and the Right ............................................... 71 1988-Rodrigo Borja and the Left.............................................................. 74 Chapter Four The Shift Occurs (1992-2002) ...................................................... 80 1992-Sixto Durán Ballén-From Insider to Outsider .................................. 80 1996-Abdalá Bucaram, the Populist ........................................................ 86 1998-Jamil Mahuad, the Career Politician ............................................... 95 Economic Collapse and January 21, 2000............................................. 106 The Disappearance of a Party ............................................................... 114 Chapter Five 2002 and the Triumph of Outsiders............................................. 116 Potential Candidates and Speculation ................................................... 120 Alvaro Noboa, the Businessman and Rich Benefactor .......................... 123 i Lucio Gutiérrez, the Military Coupster.................................................... 129 León Roldós, the Independent............................................................... 136 Jacobo Bucaram, The Exiled Ex-President’s Brother ............................ 138 Traditional Candidates........................................................................... 143 Rodrigo Borja, the Experienced Politician.............................................. 145 Xavier Neira, the Insider and Free Market Advocate ............................. 146 Round One Analysis .............................................................................. 149 The Second Round and the Results ...................................................... 156 Chapter Six Conclusions .................................................................................. 162 Political Parties ...................................................................................... 162 Legislative-Executive Relationships....................................................... 166 An Empowered Electorate ..................................................................... 167 Outsiders ............................................................................................... 169 Social Movements ................................................................................. 171 Final Thoughts ....................................................................................... 173 References ....................................................................................................... 175 ii Outsiders and the Impact of Party Affiliation in Ecuadorian Presidential Elections Rachel Hammond ABSTRACT How has the party affiliation of presidential candidates impacted presidential elections in Ecuador? Historically, how have political party candidates and outsiders performed in elections and how has this changed over the last 20 years of democratic history? This case study attempts to answer fundamental questions about the connections between parties and electablility of presidential candidates. In a country with an inchoate party system and a history of populism, personalist candidates have always had relatively high levels of electoral success. Yet, it would seem that preference for unaligned candidates is increasing. After years of domination by political party candidates, the Ecuadorian people elected two political neophytes to compete in the final round of the 2002 elections. Both campaigned as outsiders, with strong opposition to the party system, and both created personal political parties that served as electoral vehicles. iii The dependent variable, the success of outsider candidates in the 2002 elections, appears to come from three main independent variables: a history of weak and highly ineffective parties, voter alienation from institutions due to continuing political and economic crises, and a political culture that revolves around personalist and populist presidents. Because of these evident trends, outsiders in Ecuador have found favorable situations for messages of opposition to the political system. In addition, appeals to alienated citizens, based on a personal campaign, have proven successful in Ecuadorian
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