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Qformer Ecuadorean President Rafael LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Friday, September 4, 2020 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Is Correa Still a Jamaica’s Ruling CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Party Re-elected Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Driving Force in in Landslide Vote JPMorgan Chase & Co. The ruling Jamaica Labour Party Paula Cifuentes overwhelmingly won the Caribbe- Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Ecuador’s Politics? an nation’s elections, winning 49 Latin America & Canada, Philip Morris International of the 63 seats in parliament. Marlene Fernández Page 2 Corporate Vice President for Government Relations, Arcos Dorados ECONOMIC Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Mexico Likely to Inter-American Dialogue Cut Oil Production Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America Targets: Legislator Jon E. Huenemann Mexico will likely be forced to Former Corporate and lower its targets for crude oil Government Senior Executive production next year, ruling-party James R. Jones legislator Erasmo González told Chairman, Even if his name is not on the ballot, former Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa could still in- Monarch Global Strategies fluence the country’s election next year, commentators say below. // File Photo: @MashiRafael Bloomberg News in an interview. via Twitter. The country missed its production Craig A. Kelly targets this year. Senior Director, Americas Former Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa in August an- Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Page 3 John Maisto nounced his intention to be leftist candidate Andrés Arauz’s Director, U.S. Education running mate in the Andean nation’s presidential election Finance Group ECONOMIC Q next year. However, the country’s electoral council rejected Nicolás Mariscal Costa Rica’s Chairman, the candidacy of Correa, whom an Ecuadorean court earlier this year Grupo Marhnos found guilty of corruption charges and now lives in Belgium. Correa, who Chinchilla Drops Thomas F. McLarty III Chairman, was president from 2007 to 2017, has repeatedly denied wrongdoing. Bid to Lead IDB McLarty Associates How much of an impact will Correa have on Ecuador’s presidential race? Former Costa Rican President Beatrice Rangel Laura Chinchilla withdrew her can- How much popular support does he enjoy in Ecuador? To what extent Director, didacy to be the next president of AMLA Consulting LLC will current circumstances, including the government’s handling of the the Inter-American Development Jaana Remes Bank. The election has been con- Partner, coronavirus pandemic and talks to renegotiate its debt, play a role in the McKinsey Global Institute 2021 elections? troversial because of the Trump Ernesto Revilla administration’s nomination of a Head of Latin American U.S. citizen for the role. Economics, Citi Daniela Chacón Arias, executive director of Fundación TAN- Page 2 Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, DEM and former Quito vice mayor and city council member: Envases Venezolanos “Due to several legal impediments (a prior conviction and a Andrés Rozental President, Rozental & re-election ban), it is very unlikely that the electoral council Asociados A will allow Correa to be Arauz’s running mate. Nonetheless, Correa doesn’t Shelly Shetty need to be on the ticket for the election to be about him. Lenín Moreno Managing Director, Sovereigns Fitch Ratings has justified all of his government’s shortcomings with Correa’s wrongdo- ings. And given Moreno’s failed handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his unmet promise to combat corruption, there are many voices reminding the electorate that things were better under Correa. The renegotiation of the debt is very important for the country, but it will not play a major role in the elections as voters are more preoccupied with unemployment, poverty and lack of social safety networks. The right-wing candidates Chinchilla // File Photo: Inter-Amer- ican Dialogue. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Friday, September 4, 2020 POLITICAL NEWS since March 2016. [Editor’s note: See related NEWS BRIEFS Q&A in the Aug. 24 issue of the Advisor.] Jamaica’s Ruling Head of Puerto Rico’s Elections Board Resigns ECONOMIC NEWS Party Re-elected in After Botched Primary Landslide Election Costa Rica’s The head of Puerto Rico’s elections commis- sion, Juan Ernesto Dávila, announced Thursday The ruling Jamaica Labour Party, or JLP, over- Chinchilla Drops that he was stepping down immediately, NBC whelmingly won the Caribbean nation’s elec- News reported. Dávila’s resignation came after tions on Thursday, securing 49 of the 63 seats Bid to Lead IDB the U.S. territory’s chaotic Aug. 9 primary elec- in parliament, 16 more seats than it previously tion, in which dozens of polling places were had, BBC News reported. While face masks Former Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla unable to open because of missing or delayed and temperature checks were mandatory at on Thursday withdrew her candidacy to be the ballots, and several others turned voters away polling stations to curb the spread of the novel next leader of the Inter-American Development because they did not have enough ballots. coronavirus, turnout was among the lowest in Bank. In a letter to Costa Rican President Dávila said he was stepping down due to the Carlos Alvarado, which Chinchilla posted on well-being of his family, adding that he didn’t her Twitter page, she said she found fault with “want to be a distraction.” the process of selecting the institution’s next leader. “To continue forward with our nation- al aspiration would amount to endorsing a U.S. Official Reportedly process that I do not consider convenient for the IDB or for the hemisphere in the present Tells El Salvador’s conditions,” Chinchilla wrote. The former Costa Bukele That Aid Is at Risk Rican president said a factor in her decision A senior U.S. official has reportedly told El was the “abrupt change in the rules that since Holness // File Photo: Jamaican Government. Salvador’s government that aid from the United the creation of the IDB have regulated the pro- States is at risk over President Nayib Bukele’s the country’s history, at 37 percent. By compar- cess of presenting and selecting candidates.” clashing with his country’s Supreme Court ison, 48 percent of the electorate participated She added that since the bank’s creation, a and Congress, the Associated Press reported in the 2016 elections, BBC News reported. Latin American or Caribbean citizen has always Thursday. In a May 29 letter to one of Bukele’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness had called for occupied the IDB’s presidency. “However, the aides, Thomas Kelly, acting vice president of the early vote last month amid the pandemic. government of the United States of America the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Most experts saw it as an attempt to capitalize decided to alter this norm that was in force for an independent U.S. foreign aid agency, warned on people’s satisfaction with his response to 60 years, without prior consultation processes that recent actions by Bukele have “raised the virus and his economic agenda, BBC News or institutional agreements and presented its questions about the government’s commitment reported. “There are many Jamaicans who did own candidate.” The U.S. nomination of Mau- to the MCC’s eligibility criteria.” not participate, there are many Jamaicans, ricio Claver-Carone, a U.S. citizen, earlier this who for fear of the virus, did not come to the year to head the IDB has been controversial polls, but for other reasons, apathy, frustra- as he would be the first person from outside tions, decided not to participate,” Holness said Latin America and the Caribbean to lead the Chile’s Government following his party’s victory. “We are honoured institution. The vote is scheduled for Sept. 12, Reaches Deal With to continue to serve you and we look forward though several countries, including Costa Rica, Truckers to End Strike to #RecoveringStronger,” he wrote on Twitter. Argentina, Mexico and Chile, as well as Euro- Holness has been Jamaica’s prime minister pean Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Chile’s government and truck drivers who held have called for the vote to be delayed, Reuters protests over the past week have reached an SUBSCRIBER NOTICE reported. Claver-Carone has said 17 countries agreement to end the strike, France24 reported The Latin America Advisor will not be support his candidacy. Argentina has nominat- Thursday. More than 2,000 truckers, who were published on Monday, Sept. 7 in obser- ed Gustavo Beliz, the country’s strategic affairs demanding better security, blocked roads for vance of the Labor Day holiday in the secretary, for the IDB presidency. [Editor’s note: seven days, leading to supply disruptions. The United States. We will resume publishing See related Q&A in the June 25 issue of the government agreed to invest approximately $7 on Tuesday, Sept. 8. Advisor.] million in policing infrastructure in the southern region of the country. COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Friday, September 4, 2020 FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 Mexico Likely to have reached a consensus to back Guillermo around him is still the largest nonideological Cut Oil Production Lasso’s candidacy, which will polarize the reference. Although there will be a dozen Targets: Lawmaker election between the correista and noncor- presidential candidacies, it seems likely that reista options. This could rally the leftist and for the second round, correista candidate Mexico will likely be forced to cut its targets undecided votes to support Arauz in order to Andrés Arauz will face Guillermo Lasso, for crude oil production next year after missing prevent the banker from reaching his lifelong now the leader of a large right-wing alliance this year’s goal, ruling party legislator Erasmo dream.
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