Electoral Observations in the Americas Series, No. 17

Electoral Observation in

1998

Secretary General César Gaviria

Assistant Secretary General Christopher R. Thomas

Executive Coordinator, Unit for the Promotion of Democracy Elizabeth M. Spehar

This publication is part of a series of UPD publications of the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States. The ideas, thoughts, and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the OAS or its member states. The opinions expressed are the responsibility of the authors. OEA/Ser.D/XX SG/UPD/II. 17 23 March, 1999 Original: Spanish

Electoral Observation in Ecuador

1998

General Secretariat Organization of American States Washington, D.C. 20006 1999 This report was produced under the technical supervision of Edgardo Costa Reis, Chief of Mission and Specialist of the Unit for the Promotion of Democracy (UPD).

Design and composition of this publication was done by the Information and Dialogue Section of the UPD, headed by Caroline Murfitt-Eller. Betty Robinson helped with the editorial review of this report and, Meghan Henderson and Esther Rodriguez with its production.

Copyright Ó 1999 by OAS. All rights reserved. This publication may be reproduced provided credit is given to the source.

Contents

Foreword ...... vii

Introduction ...... ix

CHAPTER I The Republic of Ecuador...... 1

Geography ...... 3 History...... 4 Government ...... 6

CHAPTER II The Electoral Observation Mission...... 9

Establishment of the Mission...... 11 Objectives and activities of the Mission...... 12 Principal organizational and logistical aspects...... 13

CHAPTER III Elections ...... 15

Political division and electoral distribution...... 17 Electoral voting system: Characteristics and procedures...... 19 Electoral authorities...... 21 Political parties 23 Mass media ...... 23

CHAPTER IV First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998...... 25

The pre-electoral period ...... 29 Political parties and candidates...... 29 Electoral authorities...... 30 Electoral campaign...... 30 Civic-electoral training ...... 30 Electoral complaints...... 31 Coverage of elections by the mass media...... 32 Verification of voter registration lists...... 34 Verification of information systems ...... 36 Description of procedures and checkpoints ...... 36 Technical recommendations ...... 38 Election day ...... 38 Regional reports ...... 39 Vote counting ...... 42 Vote counting at polling stations ...... 43 Vote counting at TPEs ...... 43 Voting counting at the TSE...... 44 Projection of trends ...... 45 Conclusions ...... 46

CHAPTER V Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998...... 47

Results and evaluation...... 60 Swearing-in of the new president...... 63 Conclusions ...... 60

CHAPTER VI Financial Report ...... 63

CHAPTER VII Recommendations ...... 67

CHAPTER VIII Appendices ...... 71

Foreword

Democratic ideals and principles have always been present in the inter-American system. The Charter of Bogotá, establishing the Organization of American States (OAS), formally proclaimed in 1948 that "the solidarity of the American States and the high aims which are sought through it require the political organization of those States on the basis of the effective exercise of representative democracy." Forty years later, the Protocol of Cartagena de Indias emphatically reaffirmed this principle, including among the essential purposes of the Organization the promotion and strengthening of representative democracy. The signature of the Protocol gave rise to an unprecedented renewal of the commitment of the member states to defending and building democracy.

Within this context, the Unit for the Promotion of Democracy (UPD) is one of the instruments the OAS can draw upon to support member states in their efforts to strengthen and consolidate democratic institutions. Established by João Clemente Baena Soares, who was then Secretary General, as agreed at the 1990 General Assembly session, the UPD offers a broad program of support to member states which, in full exercise of their sovereignty, request advisory services or assistance in their efforts to preserve or strengthen their political institutions and democratic processes.

With regard specifically to elections, the UPD provides assistance and technical advisory services to national electoral agencies and organizes and dispatches electoral observation missions to member states that so request by applying to the Secretary General of the Organization. OAS activities in this field are based on the conviction that the electoral process is always an essential piece of the transition to or building of democracy.

The electoral observation missions of the Organization are intended to: (a) observe and report to the Secretary General on the electoral process, using as a reference point the constitution and electoral law of the host country; (b) express the international community's support for the electoral process; (c) work with government, electoral, and party officials and with the population in general to ensure the integrity, impartiality, and reliability of the electoral process; (d) foster an atmosphere of public confidence and encourage citizen participation; (e) discourage attempts to manipulate elections; (f) serve as an informal channel for reaching a consensus if disputes arise among the various participants in the electoral process; and (g) make recommendations for improving the electoral system.

In order to meet these objectives, the OAS electoral observation missions deploy observers throughout a country to monitor the different stages of the electoral process and compile their comments in a final report.

In general, the work of the OAS electoral observation missions focuses on those aspects and mechanisms of the political and electoral process where differences or disputes among participants are more likely to arise or that could jeopardize the integrity and transparency of the results. The missions therefore closely follow both organizational and political aspects of the electoral process. viii Foreword

On the organizational side, the missions pay special attention to the enforcement of election law, the actions of the electoral tribunal, logistical arrangements, civic education campaigns, and the observance of rules governing the registry of candidates and voters. On the political side, the missions look at promotional campaigns, the behavior of the mass media, activities linked to elections in nongovernmental organizations, and government actions that might have an impact on the course of the electoral process.

The observations and analyses by the electoral observation team, combined with the Organization's experience with elections, enable the mission to identify the weaknesses of a system with considerable accuracy and formulate possible solutions. As a result, mission reports generally include a number of recommendations for strengthening the electoral process.

This volume is part of a series designed to provide relevant information on some of the UPD's electoral observation missions, both to the general public and to readers with special interests. We trust that the study and analysis of these experiences will help to increase knowledge of circumstances in the countries in the region and promote democratic values and practices as the 21st century approaches.

Elizabeth Spehar Executive Coordinator Unit for the Promotion of Democracy

Introduction

The Organization of American States (OAS), the oldest regional entity in the world, has been demonstrating, on an ongoing and continuous basis, its concern and interest in the promotion and defense of democratic institutions and values in the Hemisphere.

Within that context, the General Assembly recommended to the Secretary General, by means of resolution AG/RES. 991 (XIX-0/89) that “missions be organized and sent to those member states, which, in the exercise of their sovereignty, request them, in order to observe, if possible, all phases of electoral processes.”

The Secretary General of the OAS, through the Unit for the Promotion of Democracy (UPD), an entity with specific competence in this area, is working intensely on a daily basis to contribute to the strengthening of institutions and the consolidation of democratic processes in the Hemisphere. These activities include almost 40 electoral observation missions established in recent years to work in more than 15 member countries.

On February 13, 1998, the Government of the Republic of Ecuador asked the Secretary General of the OAS to send an OAS Observation Mission to that country, in order to provide assistance and observe the elections during the first and possibly second round in Ecuador, on May 31 and July 12, respectively.

The Secretary General of the OAS, César Gaviria, responded favorably to the government’s request, and on March 31, 1998, decided to establish an Electoral Observation Mission in Ecuador, provided that sufficient funding was obtained for the financing of that mission.

The Secretary General appointed Edgardo C. Reis, Principal Specialist in the Unit for the Promotion of Democracy, as Chief of the Observation Mission to be established in Ecuador for the 1998 general elections.

The Mission would observe the electoral process and keep the Secretary General fully apprised of developments, and would cooperate with and their institutions in their efforts to ensure that the process was honest, transparent, and credible.

In fact, this would not be the first time that the OAS observed the electoral process in Ecuador. In response to a request by the government of that country on May 10, 1996, Secretary General Gaviria established an Electoral Observation Mission for the general elections in that country on May 19 and July 7, 1996, the dates of the first and second rounds, respectively. During those elections, Abdalá Bucaram was elected president of the Republic of Ecuador.

However, in February 1997, the Ecuadorian Congress removed President Abdalá Bucaram from office. The Congress elected Fabián Alarcón Rivera to serve the remainder of the presidential term. While in office, he held a referendum in May 1997, which led, among other things, to the x Introduction

establishment of a National Congress to amend the Constitution prior to the May 1998 general elections.

Six months later, in November 1997, representatives in the National Constituent Assembly were elected, and they were granted a broad mandate for political reform. The Assembly met for the first time on December 20, 1997, and elected former president to head this entity.

In late February 1998, the National Constituent Assembly submitted decisions concerning electoral and political reform to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of Ecuador (TSE), which included, among other things, the elimination of mid-term legislative elections and an increase in the number of representatives from 82 to 121. Also, the timetable for general elections (presidential, legislative, and municipal) was established, and the date for the first round was set for May 31, 1998, with a second round possibly taking place on July 12, should that be necessary, for the purpose of holding a presidential runoff.

Based on the electoral schedule established, the Government of Ecuador asked the Secretary General of the OAS to send an Electoral Observation Mission for the 1998 general elections, the preparations, developments, and results of which are analyzed in this report.

CHAPTER I The Republic of Ecuador

Geography1

The Republic of Ecuador is located on the northeastern coast of , and the continental part of its territory borders in the south and east and in the north. To the west, 2,237 kilometers of Ecuador’s territory is bordered by the Pacific Ocean, and the Galápagos Islands lie some 1,000 kilometers beyond.

The country has four well-defined geographical regions; each has its own environment and climate. In general, it is colder than would be expected on the equator because of the maritime currents and the altitude of the mountains. The coastal temperature ranges from 25 to 31 degrees centigrade, and in the sierra it is variable, depending on the altitude. Throughout the year, the climate is subtropical in the Andean valley region. It is moderate during the day and cold at nights. In the capital, , the temperature ranges from 7 degrees centigrade at night to 26 degrees during the day. It is said that Ecuador is one of the few places in the world where the four seasons of the year can be experienced in a single day. The Amazon region is generally hot, humid, and rainy, with an average temperature of 26 degrees centigrade. In the Galápagos Islands, the temperature is hot and the climate, dry.

Despite the fact that it is small in size, Ecuador is certainly one of the most diverse countries in terms of flora and fauna. Its biological richness is seen in the variety of organisms: 10 percent of the vascular plants in the world are found in an area covering only 2 percent of the surface area of the land. Its varying ecosystems also interact to provide a great diversity of habitats.

The , which cross the country from north to south, divide continental Ecuador into the coastal area, the sierra, and the oriente (Amazon area). The Galápagos archipelago is the fourth region of the country.

Notwithstanding the changes that will be mentioned later, it should be pointed out that at the time of the elections, the political and administrative division of Ecuador was as follows: 21 provinces, with 5 being on the coast (Esmeraldas, Guayas, Manabí, Los Ríos, and El Oro), 10 in the sierra (Azuay, Bolívar, Cañar, Carchi, Cotopaxi, Chimborazo, Imbabura, Loja, Pichincha, and Tungurahua), 5 in the oriente (Morona Santiago, Napo, Pastaza, Sucumbíos, and Zamora Chinchipe), and 1 in the Galápagos archipelago (province bearing the same name).

1 Sources: Embassy of Ecuador, Washington, D.C. Jorge Salvador Lara, Breve Historia Contemporánea del Ecuador [Brief Contemporary ], Economic Cultural Fund, Mexico, 1994. 4 The Republic of Ecuador

After the elections, and pursuant to the provisions of the Law Establishing a New Province of July 1998, the new province of Francisco Orellana was created from territory in the provinces of Napo and Sucumbíos. As a result, Ecuador has 22 provinces.

History

The country on the South American continent known today as Ecuador was called Quito from time immemorial. According to Ecuadorian historian Jorge Salvador Lara, the current name “is the result of an unfortunate change that bears a remote link to the geodesic measurements of French academicians in the eighteenth century.”

Advanced indigenous cultures such as the Chorrera, Jama Coaque, Bahía, Tolita, Machalilla, and Valdivia (the latter is the oldest culture known in the Americas) lived, between 10,000 B.C. and 1,500 A.D., in the territory known today as Ecuador. By approximately 1450, the majority of those cultures were organized into ethnic groups. At that time, the Inca Empire was the biggest political and territorial grouping and dominated a large part of western South America.

The death of Huayna Capac in 1526, the person who consolidated the Inca Empire, resulted in the division of the imperial territory between his sons: Cuzco was given to Huáscar, and Quito to Atahualpa. However, a fratricidal struggle weakened the imperial power, paving the way for conquest by the Spanish.

By the early seventeenth century, had conquered a large part of South and Central America. This colonial rule lasted for 300 hundred years on the continent. During that period, Ecuador was the headquarters of the royal court, the arts thrived, and scientists such as La Condamine and Von Humboldt were attracted to Ecuador.

On August 10, 1809, a General Assembly, headed by Juan Pio Montufar, was peacefully established in Quito. On October 9, 1820, declared its independence, and in the war of independence that ensued, General Antonio José de Sucre established his military barracks in that city. This location served as his base until May 24, 1822, when his forces defeated the Spanish royalist army in a decisive battle fought at the foot of the Pichincha volcano, in the city of Quito. Ecuador won its independence and joined New Granada and Venezuela to form the Federation of .

In 1830, the Republic of Ecuador seceded from Gran Colombia and formed an independent state. During its nascent and unstable years, which were marked by power struggles, Ecuador had the following presidents: first, General Juan José Flores, a Venezuelan, and then , who was born in Guayaquil. The consolidation of the country did not occur until 1861, nine years after the abolition of slavery, and an era of conservatism was ushered in, which lasted until 1895. The end of the nineteenth century marked a period of economic growth for Ecuador, which was primarily tied to cacao exports. At that time, President led a liberal revolution that produced a series of designated reforms to establish the separation between church and state and propel an era of economic and commercial development. Later, during the July Revolution of 1925, new economic reforms were carried out by the government of Isidoro Ayura, among those that stand out was the creation of the Central Bank. However, the world economic crisis of 1929 undermined and practically wiped out the effects of these measures, leading to the toppling of Ayora in 1931. The Republic of Ecuador 5

The 1930s were marked by political instability in the country. José María Velasco Ibarra, who was elected president on five different occasions, took office for the first time during that period. In 1941, a long-standing territorial dispute propelled Ecuador into a war with Peru and to sporadic conflicts in the border region over the years. However, this dispute was settled recently.

The Ecuadorian economy received a great boost from increased banana sales after World War II. A period of peace and prosperity followed, with the free election of three presidents who completed their terms: Lasso, who would later become Secretary General of the Organization of American States; Velasco Ibarra (third term), and Camilo Ponce Enríquez. Velasco Ibarra was again elected president to serve the 1960-64 term. However, his term in office coincided with another economic crisis in the country. After a political crisis, Velasco Ibarra lost support and was forced into exile in 1961.

The 1960s were marked by political instability. A military junta ruled the country from 1963 to 1966, and although presidential elections were held in 1968, democratic stability lasted only until 1972, the year in which the Commander-in-Chief of the Army, General Guillermo Rodriguez Lara, removed President Velasco Ibarra from office.

The 1970s led to economic prosperity as Ecuador achieved world renown as a major oil exporter. However, this period, instead of also ushering in political stability, led to growing instability. General Rodríguez Lara resigned in 1976, and a new military junta was formed for the purpose of leading Ecuador to democracy. In 1978 a referendum was held, and Ecuador opted for a new constitution. The elections held in July 1979 marked the country’s return to democracy. Jaime Roldós (a member of the Concentration of Popular Forces, a populist party) was elected president. However, his term ended abruptly in 1981 with his death in a plane crash in . His constitutional successor (Osvaldo Hurtado from the Popular Democracy) served as president until 1984.

While Ecuador was facing a serious crisis linked to difficulties in making external debt payments, in addition to problems caused by flooding resulting from El Niño (1982-83), Ecuadorians were getting ready to elect León Febres Cordero (Social Christian Party, PSC) in 1984. Febres Cordero was succeeded by Rodrigo Borja (Democratic Left) in 1988, and four years later, Sixto Durán Ballén, a former Social Christian military officer and founder of a new Party, the Republican Unity, was elected.

In 1996 fresh elections were held, and the candidate from the Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE), Abdalá Bucaram, was elected president. His unorthodox style won him a great deal of popularity but also led to awkward situations and the alienation of many sectors of Ecuadorian society. Allegations of corruption, conflicts with the Congress and other institutions, together with the adoption of unpopular measures eroded his political and popular support base. On February 5 and 6, 1997, a general strike grew into a national protest, and the Ecuadorian people demanded, with virtual unanimity, his removal from office.

The Congress took action and appointed as interim , Fabián Alarcón who, until then, had been head of the unicameral legislature. The Ecuadorian people endorsed those drastic measures in a national referendum held in May 1997 and also voted for the establishment of a new National Constituent Assembly to amend the Constitution and the structure of the political 6 The Republic of Ecuador

system. The new Constitution took effect on August 10, 1998, and some of the reforms established by the National Constituent Assembly were applied during the electoral process, the contents of which are discussed in this report.

Government

Ecuador is a unitary and democratic republic, headed by a president. The government is divided into the following branches: executive, legislative, and judicial. There is also an autonomous electoral entity, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The provincial and municipal administrations are chosen during local elections.

The president of the republic, who is the head of government and chief of state, is elected to serve a term of four years (for the purpose of establishing a new electoral timetable, the duration of the current term, which began on August 10, will last four years and five months, that is, until January 2003, according to the amendment that stipulates that the presidential term begins on January 15, every four years). The head of the executive branch determines the number of ministers and their duties and appoints the members of his cabinet. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

The National Congress, elected by popular mandate, is a unicameral body comprising 121 members. Its president is elected from the representatives that receive the largest number of votes nationally, and hierarchically, it comes under the president and vice president of the republic.

The judiciary comprises administrative tribunals, trial courts, courts of appeal, superior provincial courts, and the Supreme Court, which is vested with supreme judicial authority. The Supreme Court comprises 30 magistrates appointed for life, divided in ten courts with three judges in each.

The Government of Ecuador is elected by means of direct, free, and secret votes cast by the citizens. In this regard, it should be pointed out that voting is a mandatory constitutional duty for all literate citizens of Ecuador who are 18 to 65 years of age. Active members of the armed forces do not vote, and voting is optional for illiterate persons and persons over age 65.

The elections are organized and monitored by an independent entity that is not part of the executive, called the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which is governed by special laws. It is the final arbiter with respect to electoral matters.

CHAPTER II The Electoral Observation Mission

Establishment of the Mission

The Electoral Observation Mission covering the 1998 general (EOM/EC), led by the Chief of Mission, Edgardo C. Reis, established a presence in Ecuador in May, in principle deciding the most appropriate way to meet the operational and functional needs of the Mission involved in the electoral process.

By mandate, all OAS electoral observation missions must be financed through the voluntary contributions of member states and/or observer nations. The restriction on the use of Regular Funds to finance this kind of activity is based on the provisions of two General Assembly resolutions. First, resolution AG/RES. 991 (XIX-0/89), “Human Rights and Electoral Observation,” recommends that the Secretary General organize and send electoral observation missions when a member state so requests, but also stresses that “insofar as possible, the costs of these valuable electoral observation services should not affect the regular budget of the Organization.” Second, resolution AG/RES. 572 (882/91), “Support Program for the Promotion of Democracy,” states that assistance activities, among them electoral monitoring, should be financed with external funds.

Consequently, the EOM/EC had to request the support of member states or observers to finance the electoral observation activities in Ecuador. Voluntary contributions received for the establishment of the Mission covered only a little more than half of the original budget, which led to a reduction in the number of observers and in the length of time that they spent in the country, as well as the cancellation of a number of observation activities. However, the basic observation activities were accomplished, and the observers maintained a visible presence throughout the electoral process. The establishment of an EOM/EC was made possible thanks to the voluntary financial contributions received from the governments of Canada, the , and Japan.

The activities of the EOM/EC started with an exploratory mission to determine the observation needs and the manner in which they could be met, at the national level, with the resources available. In addition, initial contact was made by the Chief of Mission with the electoral authorities, representatives of political parties, the chiefs of the armed forces and national police, representatives of diplomatic missions, international organizations, and the mass media, and other leaders of the civil society. Also, an observation timetable was prepared in order to cover all the events related to the electoral process—from political campaigns, coverage of the process by the mass media, preparation of the civil register, and electoral records, to post-electoral activities and the swearing-in of new officials and the new president on August 10, 1998, the date on which the Mission ended its activities.

12 The Electoral Observation Mission

A group of 30 observers and data collectors composed of men and women from 12 member countries of the Organization (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the United States, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Suriname) gradually joined the Mission and went throughout Ecuador to observe the preparatory phase of the electoral process in the different regions, following with the elections on May 31, until the final results were announced.

During the second round, a smaller group of observers and data collectors, composed of 20 men and women from eight member countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, the United States, Mexico, Paraguay, and Uruguay) again went to remote regions of Ecuador to observe the preparatory phase of the second round on July 12, vote-counting, and the announcement of the results.

The EOM/EC, in accordance with the commitment made, remained in Ecuador until the new president took office on August 10, 1998.

Objectives and activities of the Mission

In order to ensure the integrity, transparency, and reliability of the electoral process, the EOM/EC ensured, during each phase of the electoral process and in conjunction with government and electoral authorities, party representatives and the citizenry in general, compliance with and adherence to the regulations established in a mandatory minimum frame of reference made up of such essential instruments as the OAS Charter, the Constitution of Ecuador, the electoral laws and political parties in the country, and the agreement concluded on April 23, 1998, between the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of Ecuador and the Secretary General of the OAS on the electoral observation procedure and on the privileges and immunities of observers.

Moreover, the EOM/EC sought the following objectives:

1. To demonstrate the existing international support for the electoral and democratic process in Ecuador;

2. To contribute to building an atmosphere of trust so that the elections could take place under normal conditions;

3. To reduce, by means of an active and disciplined international presence, possible attempts at electoral fraud;

4. To confirm the validity of the official results;

5. To encourage the voluntary participation of voters in the process; 6. To formulate recommendations aimed at strengthening the electoral system and processes in Ecuador; and,

7. To provide historical documentation and useful information on the elections which could be used in future elections in Ecuador and in other countries.

The Electoral Observation Mission 13

Within this framework, the EOM/EC prepared an intense schedule of activities for observers. During the pre-election period, that schedule included maintaining ongoing contact with the electoral authorities (Supreme Electoral Tribunal and provincial electoral tribunals), with the representatives and candidates of the political parties, with representatives of the armed forces and national police, with leaders of other associations and civil organizations, and with the citizens in general, in order to observe the progress being made with this process.

Observation tasks during this period also covered campaigning by persons participating in the electoral race. The EOM/EC was also responsible for the transmission to the electoral authorities and follow-up work regarding complaints and reports filed with the Mission by any of the parties involved in the electoral process.

Among the activities conducted by the EOM/EC during this stage were the inspection of voter registration lists and of information systems for the computation of the electoral results.

On election day, activities included the observation of voting at polling stations (JRVs) and the monitoring of vote-counting at these stations and of the vote-counting to be done at the provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs) until the time of transmission of results to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

During the second electoral round, a schedule of activities similar to that of the first round was followed. Also, projections were done on the actual day of elections in the capitals of Pichincha and Guayas provinces (Quito and Guayaquil). These provinces have 45 percent of the registered voters in the country. After the elections, the provincial electoral tribunals checked the vote count based on a sample of records, in addition to the “parallel tabulation” of results based on the counting of votes from a series of polling stations selected by statistical sample.

Principal organizational and logistical aspects

The headquarters of the EOM/EC was in Quito, the capital of the Republic of Ecuador and base of the highest government and electoral authorities in the country. Moreover, for the purpose of fulfilling assigned objectives and functions, the EOM/EC established permanent sub-offices in six regions of the country to which observers were gradually sent. This enabled the work of the EOM/EC to be done in the different provinces and cantons of the territory. The selection of the territory to be covered during the observation and demarcation of the different regions took place based largely on population density in the different geographic areas, with an effort being made to cover as much of the electoral process as possible. The same approach was used in assigning the number of observers to the different sub-offices.

Moreover, the observers maintained a presence in the country in seven principal regions, with the headquarters in Quito and their sub-offices in the cities of Guayaquil, Cuenca, Ibarra, Ambato, Portoviejo, and Esmeraldas.

The headquarters of the EOM/EC covered electoral activities in the Province of Pichincha.

The sub-offices of the EOM/EC were divided as follows:

14 The Electoral Observation Mission

1. Guayaquil sub-office Provinces under its jurisdiction: Guayas and Los Ríos

2. Cuenca sub-office Provinces under its jurisdiction: Azuay, Loja, and El Oro

3. Ibarra sub-office Provinces under its jurisdiction: Imbabura and Carchi

4. Ambato sub-office Provinces under its jurisdiction: Cotopaxi, Tungurahua, and Chimborazo

5. Portoviejo sub-office Provinces under its jurisdiction: Manabí

6. Esmeraldas sub-office Provinces under its jurisdiction: Esmeraldas

From Quito, the assistant coordinator to the Chief of Mission was responsible, among other things, for the organization of the logistics relating to the travel of observers to the regions, the provision of transportation and cellular telephones, the coordination of activities between the EOM/EC and the different sub-offices, and the gathering of information from these offices.

At each sub-office, a coordinator of the area was responsible for coordination of the activities of the region and for communicating with and providing information to the Chief of Mission and the assistant coordinator, both based in Quito, regarding progress and developments relating to the electoral process.

In order to observe the different phases of the process and to facilitate the gathering of information, forms were distributed to the different observers (see Appendices) regarding the different aspects of the tasks for which they are responsible: receipt of complaints, interviews with electoral officials, representatives of political parties, representatives of the mass media, observation of the voting and vote-counting process, and the tabulation and verification of results.

CHAPTER III Elections

Political division and electoral distribution

During the electoral period, the Republic of Ecuador was divided into 21 provinces (we have already noted that a change occurred later on in the political and administrative division, which increased the number of provinces by one). These provinces were in turn subdivided into 196 cantons, which included a total of 335 urban parishes and 770 rural parishes.

Based on voter registration records, the total number of voters in the country was 7,072,496. Based on this figure, 23,977 polling stations were established nationally.

Province No. of Polling No. of Voters Total/Percentage Stations Azuay 1,225 358,610 5.07 Bolívar 397 116,351 1.65 Cañar 456 134,208 1.90 Carchi 338 97,301 1.38 Cotopaxi 712 209,112 2.96 Chimborazo 902 264,107 3.73 El Oro 1,066 310,780 4.39 Esmeraldas 720 210,357 2.97 Guayas 6,154 1,835,790 25.95 Imbabura 715 208,835 2.95 Loja 892 257,280 3.64 Los Ríos 1,252 370,513 5.24 Manabí 2,616 775,586 10.97 Morona Santiago 211 56,521 .80 Napo 240 67,673 .96 Pastaza 107 29,582 .42 Pichincha 4,625 1,378,512 19.49 Tungurahua 978 287,817 4.07 Zamora Chinchipe 141 38,799 0.55 Galápagos 30 8,066 0.11 Sucumbíos 200 56,696 .80 Grand Total 23,977 7,072,496 100 Electoral voting system: Characteristics and procedures

20 Elections

The legal framework for carrying out the general elections is set forth in the Constitution of Ecuador, the Electoral Law, the Law on Political Parties (each has its own regulations), and in particular, in the temporary provisions approved by the National Constituent Assembly of February 26, 1998 (RO-S265: February 27, 1998).

The latter amendment bars the participation of felons or persons who committed crimes punishable by imprisonment, who were fugitives after being charged with or prosecuted for extortion, bribery, embezzlement, illicit enrichment, and in general, any offense relating to the improper use of public funds or property, even if criminal prosecution for such acts may be statute barred.

The aforementioned amendment also introduced other new features pertaining to the number of representatives comprising the National Congress, which shall be made up of 121 lawmakers (instead of the previous number of 82), divided as follows: 101 provincial lawmakers and 20 national lawmakers (previously, there were 70 and 12 respectively). Another change was the discontinuation of mid-term elections.

The electoral system of Ecuador makes provisions for a uninominal two-round majority system for the election of a president and vice president. During the first round, two candidates are elected if an absolute majority of votes is obtained or half plus one of the votes validly cast. Should this not be the case, a second round is held, and the election is limited to the two candidates chosen from a binomial ballot who obtained the two biggest majorities.

The election of national and provincial representatives to the National Congress is governed by the principle of proportional representation with the awarding of seats to the persons who obtained the highest percentages by means of the application of a formula of continuous division. The aim of the proportional system is to have the composition of the National Congress reflect, to the greatest extent possible, the makeup of the existing political forces. For this reason, each party obtains a number of seats proportional to the votes received during the elections.

In the selection of national representatives, a system of representation based on a closed blocked list is used, which prevents the voter from changing the predetermined order of candidates as it appears on the list prepared by the political party. However, in the selection of provincial candidates an open list is used, which permits the voter to indicate his preferred candidates on one list or among lists. This system, which enables several persons to be elected, guarantees the representation of minorities, which is the fundamental principle of the democratic system.

However, it should be noted that in accordance with the provisions of the Electoral Law, voting is a right and duty of all Ecuadorians between the ages 18 and 65, who are residing in the country and whose names appear on the voter registration list. Voting takes place in person, is mandatory, and is done in secret. Voting is optional for persons who are illiterate and for citizens over age 65. The law also states that persons whose names do not appear on the voter registration list and persons in active duty in the armed forces or national police may not vote.

The voting procedure established indicates that voters must wait their turn at the polling station in order to vote by forming two lines: one for men and one for women. If their names are on the electoral list, they cast their vote after showing their identification cards. If a person’s name does Elections 21

not appear on the voter registration list, then that person is not permitted to vote, although he is given a certificate of attendance and polling station officials must record his personal data on the form for persons whose names do not appear on the voter registration list.

Illiterate persons record their vote with their right thumbprint.

Electoral authorities

The electoral authorities are established by the Electoral Law, have exclusive authority in this area, and are responsible, pursuant to the provisions of this law, for the proper and smooth functioning of the electoral process. For the purpose of application of the aforementioned law, the electoral authorities may request the assistance of law and order forces, obtaining, as appropriate, from the pertinent authority, the necessary personnel. Moreover, the electoral authorities must settle the claims filed by the political parties and citizens, among other things, and apply the sanctions set forth in the Electoral Law.

In this regard, the following entities are vested with electoral authority: the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs), and the polling stations (JRVs).

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is the highest electoral authority. It is headquartered in Quito and has jurisdiction throughout the Republic of Ecuador. As a public law entity with administrative, economic, and financial autonomy and independence, the TSE is responsible for organizing, directing, overseeing, and guaranteeing the proper functioning of the electoral process.

Some of the main functions of the TSE are:

· To prepare the voter registration lists, using the data and reports submitted to it by the Office of the Civil Register, Identification, and Documentation;

· To call elections, do the final vote counts for president and vice president of the republic and of national representatives in the National Congress, and to announce results; · To organize TPEs, supervise their operations, and to reorganize them as necessary;

· To ensure that electoral campaign material is in conformity with the Electoral Law. This entity is composed of seven regular members and seven alternate members, elected by the National Congress in the following manner: three outside members representing the citizens, two from a list submitted by the president of the republic, and two from a list submitted by the Supreme Court. These members cannot, under any circumstances, be public servants, magistrates, judges, or employees of the judiciary. As stated in the ninth question of the electoral referendum of May 25, 1997, the TSE is made up “of one representative from each list of candidates who obtained the highest number of votes in the multi-candidate national elections.”

Eligibility requirements must be met for TSE membership. Individuals must be Ecuadorian citizens by birth, must be at least 30 years old, must be able to read and write, and must be fully exercising their rights as citizens. It should be pointed that regular members of the TSE serve for a period of two years and may be reelected. 22 Elections

The president of the TSE represents the organization in a legal, judicial, and extrajudicial capacity and is elected by the members of this body at its inaugural session held seven days after they are sworn-in before the National Congress. This session is convened by the first-ranking member. The vice president and members of the three advisory committees are also elected from the regular members.

Provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs) are also made up of seven members appointed by the TSE, preferably from persons whose names appear on the lists submitted by the political parties. An effort is made to achieve representation of the different political currents in the country.

For every regular member elected, the TSE elects an alternate member. Both serve for two years.

The specific functions of the TPEs include:

· Appointing from their members the president and vice president of this entity, as well as a secretary and other administrative officials and employees;

· Managing and overseeing electoral records within the scope of their jurisdiction and issuing the necessary instructions for the preparation of these records and following the instructions of the TSE;

· Doing the vote count in elections involving one or many candidates for each province and the provincial vote counts for the elections in the provinces for president and vice president of the republic and national representatives. The same applies in cases of a plebiscite or referendum;

· Settling claims filed by political parties or citizens or regarding irregularities noted in the electoral process;

· Appointing officials of the polling polling stations (JRVs).

Polling stations (JRVs) are the entities responsible for receiving votes and for vote- counting. Representatives of parties may make observations during the voting, which may be addressed at that time by polling station officials only.

Polling stations comprise regular members, appointed by the TPEs from citizens who have their electoral domicile in the jurisdiction where the elections are held. If a regular member is absent, the alternate takes his place. This individual is also appointed by the TPE. For each JRV, the TPE appoints two alternate members and a secretary.

The number of regular members to comprise each JRV will be as follows:

Guayas and Pichincha 6 Manabí 5 Azuay, Los Ríos, and El Oro 4 Elections 23

In the other provinces of the territory, three regular members per JRV will be elected.

The JRV is supposed to be open at 7 a.m. on election day. If regular members or alternates fail to show up at that time, any regular TPE member or person designated by him may establish the JRV and choose from voters the number of persons needed to perform these functions. If at 8 a.m. the JRV is still having difficulty establishing the polling station, the regular member(s) present may appoint someone to replace the person(s) absent from the citizens waiting on line at the polling station.

Political parties

The Law on Political Parties regulates the method of formation, the activities, and the dissolution of political parties and establishes guarantees for their free functioning. In this regard, the law states: “parties are political/ideological organizations, comprising persons who freely come together to participate in the affairs of the state.” Furthermore, this law states that parties are “a fundamental element of the democratic system; they express and guide the political will of the people, promote the active civic participation of citizens, train members to become involved in public life, and select the best persons to run the government.”

During the May 1998 general elections in Ecuador, the following six persons were presidential candidates:

List Political Party Presidential Comments Vice Presidential candidate Candidate 5 Popular Democracy Born in Loja, Mayor of (DP) Quito since 1992, former Minister of Labor and Human Resources 10 Ecuadorian Roldosista Alvaro Noboa Born in Guayaquil, former Alfredo Castillo Party (PRE), Latin President of the American Popular Monetary Board during Union (UPL), the Bucaram Government Ecuadorian Popular Revolutionary Action (APRE) 12 Democratic Left (ID) Rodrigo Borja Born in Quito, former Carlos Baquerizo President of Ecuador 1988-92 21 New Country Alliance Freddy Ehlers Born in Quito, presidential Jorge Gallardo – Pachakutik (MCNP) candidate for the second 24 Elections

time, television host, and journalist 11 MIRA National Rosalía Arteaga Born in Cuenca, former Guido Carranza Alliance (AN) Vice President of Ecuador, former Minister of Education 15 Popular Democratic María Eugenia Born in Tulcán, former Ricardo Rodríguez Movement (MPD) Lima Congresswoman

Five of the electoral contenders are from the sierra and one is from the coast, something that represents a departure from Ecuadorian political tradition. Several presidential candidates generally come from Guayaquil.

In terms of funding, the Law on Political Parties states that “the assets of political parties shall be made up of the contributions of members, state subsidies, income from their investments, and assets donated or bequeathed by their supporters.” The implementing regulations to this law also further state that parties, through the tax court, after obtaining optional accounting or auditing advice, shall prepare an analytical report annually on the handling of funds by the treasurer of the organization.

Mass Media

During its stay in Ecuador, the Mission maintained ongoing but loose ties with the representatives of the various areas of the mass media responsible for coverage of the electoral process.

Throughout this process, the EOM/EC drafted and made available to the mass media eight press communiqués, by means of which it provided information largely intended for citizens, regarding the work of the OAS pertaining to the promotion of democracy in the Hemisphere, its participation in similar electoral missions, the characteristics and composition of the Mission in Ecuador, its main activities and functions; and little by little, a number of comments on the progress being made in the process (see Appendices).

The mass media took note of the presence of OAS observers, underscoring in particular the contribution of the Organization to the transparency of the process, and following closely the statements and comments made by the Chief of Mission relating to developments in the elections.

Moreover, at the different sub-offices, the local mass media noted and generally identified the observers in the area and often publicized their activities.

The EOM/EC did exhaustive follow-up work pertaining to the coverage of the electoral process by the mass media, based, in particular, on clippings, analyses, and files containing articles in nationally and locally circulated newspapers in the different sub-offices.

CHAPTER IV First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

The pre-electoral period

In order to publicize information about and fulfill its specific mandate, the EOM/EC focused its efforts during the pre-electoral phase in the following three areas:

1. Interviews and meetings with delegates and representatives of political parties competing for the offices of president and national representatives in the May 1998 general elections, as well as follow-up work related to their respective campaigns.

2. Interviews and meetings with civilian and military authorities.

3. Follow-up work related to the activities conducted by the TSE and TPEs in order to guarantee the smooth functioning of the electoral process.

Political parties and candidates

The EOM/EC interviewed candidates, delegates, and/or representatives of all the political parties involved in the presidential electoral campaign. Based on this experience, the positions adopted by these political groups with respect to the functioning of the electoral process can be classified as follows:

(a) Those candidates, delegates, and/or representatives who did not think that there were major or relevant problems during the process. Parties holding this view were: Popular Democracy (PD), the Democratic Left, and despite the fact that this party had no presidential contender, the Social Christian Party (PSC), since it was the primary political force in .

(b) Those candidates, delegates, and/or representatives who challenged the electoral process, stressing, in particular, the lack of transparency in terms of control of the source of campaign funds by the majority parties (in particular the DP and PRE) and the fact that the TSE did not have a program to provide information to and build awareness among the citizens regarding the voting process. In particular, the complexity of the elections arising from the dual system used in the election should be pointed out: votes cast from a list of national representatives and uninominal selection for provincial and cantonal representatives. Parties in this category included: the National Alliance (AL – MIRA Movement), the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD), and the New Country Citizens Movement (MCNP).

30 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

(c) The position of the Roldosista Party (PRE) and its related parties was a consistently intransigent one: Throughout the process, they objected to the vote -- counting mechanism used by the TSE and TPEs. In their complaints, which were never formally filed with the TSE or the TPEs, they pointed to alleged computer-related fraud, which, however, was never proved.

Electoral authorities

One of the most important activities of the EOM/EC involved follow-up work related to the activities conducted by the TSE and the TPEs during the pre-electoral period. The reception and support given to the Mission by the officials of these tribunals was very important and undoubtedly provided the basis for the tasks conducted under the mandate of the EOM/EC, particularly in the area of logistical support and contacts. Within the framework of activities conducted by electoral tribunals regarding the organization and monitoring of the elections, the EOM/EC received all the information it needed.

Electoral campaign

The electoral campaign (rallies, records, caravans) had a great effect in the different provinces of the country. While in the biggest electoral districts (Guayas, Pichincha) electoral campaigning by the presidential candidates reached fever pitch, in other districts (Esmeraldas, Manabí, and others) the level of organization was relatively low and citizen participation was moderate. During these meetings, no significant incidents or problems were noted.

Companies conducting surveys and the mass media had to cease publication and dissemination of the results of polls on April 15, 45 days prior to the scheduled date of the elections. Failure to do so would lead to severe penalties, such as the closing for six months of the entity that failed to comply with this provision. These provisions had an immediate impact on the print media, leading to a number of problems in other media where, in radio or television interviews, reference was made to surveys in discussions between candidates and interviewers or announcers, which led to repeated calls by the TSE for prudence in this area.

Civic-electoral training

Through observers located at different points in the country, the EOM/EC did exhaustive follow-up work related to the training of polling station officials and mechanisms for the dissemination of information regarding voting by the citizens in general. It was found that dissemination and training programs differed from one province to another.

In this regard, it should be noted that the provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs) were responsible for these civic-training activities, since the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) did not have a main unit to outline the general procedures for effective and unified training at all levels, including the security forces, which play an important role on election day. Despite this, the TSE prepared an “electoral information sheet” or instructions regarding the main aspects of the procedures to be following at each polling station on election day.

First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 31

TSE members included on the form a number of the most frequently asked questions at polling stations, such as the duties of their officials, the authority of each person, voting procedures, the manner in which vote-counting forms should be prepared, and vote-counting procedures.

Plans for the training of polling station members differed in terms of organization and efficiency in the different provinces. In general, each jurisdiction had a weekly schedule for training, and workshops and courses were held at TPE offices and through the dispatch of the team of trainers to cantons. In some cases, audiovisual aids were included in the different training activities. Also, the training team often went to different locations to give talks or hold seminars, in response to an invitation from any private or official organization or association.

Training activities often included police officers, who received instructions regarding specific electoral functions.

Campaigns to disseminate information on electoral procedures to the public, were, in general, insufficient. On this occasion, the TSE decided not to have marketing agencies do the publicity work. In this regard, the TPEs increased restrictions in the budget categories for the dissemination by the mass media of information on voting procedures and indicated that in many instances the political parties were responsible for providing voters with this information. However, announcements were made and calls issued urging citizens to vote through radiobroadcasts.

In the specific case of Guayas Province, the training of polling station officials was not based on a plan prepared beforehand and was provided when the entities such as banks, associations, etc. in the provinces requested this training. This approach proved ineffective. In this regard, on May 27, lists were published of polling station officials whose names were taken directly from the voter registration list. This meant that individuals were randomly selected, and that no kind of training was provided for them.

Electoral complaints

In accordance with an agreement concluded between the TSE and the OAS Secretary General on the procedures for electoral observation, dated April 23, 1998, the Mission had the authority to inform the TSE of irregularities and interference that were reported to them, and to ask the TSE for information on the measures taken in this regard.

In this regard, the EOM/EC observers are responsible, among other things, for the receipt, processing, and forwarding to the appropriate authority and subsequent follow-up of any kind of complaint pertaining to irregularities in the electoral process, which are well founded and are accompanied by supporting documentation. Complaints may be submitted to the Mission during any phase of the process by persons or entities. The Mission does not have the authority to institute proceedings or issue decisions pertaining to a specific case; instead, it monitors the handling of the complaints by the pertinent authority and reports the outcome to the person or entity that filed the complaint.

During the first electoral round, the EOM/EC did not receive complaints pertaining to substantive irregularities in the organization and logistics of the process. However, it should be pointed out that during an interview with the presidential candidate of the National Alliance, Rosalía 32 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

Arteaga, the Mission was verbally informed of the omission in the voting record and in the Summary of Vote Counting form contained in the electoral booklet (pages 15 and 17) of the box to enter the vote count for her party. The EOM/EC duly forwarded this verbal complaint received to the electoral authorities and monitored the matter carefully in order to ensure that the omission in the printed forms contained in the electoral booklet was not reproduced in the originals to be used on election day by the polling stations.

Coverage of elections by the mass media

During the week before the presidential elections, the EOM/EC analyzed the information published pertaining to the candidates on the presidential ballots who were favored by voters, which appeared in the print media with the widest national circulation: two in Quito (El Comercio and Hoy) and three in Guayaquil (El Universo, El Telégrafo, and El Expreso).

The analysis was done by counting the articles in each newspaper pertaining to the different presidential candidates. These articles were in turn classified as follows:

(a) Headline: headlines of a minimum of 40 lines;

(b) Opinion: article written by a columnist giving his opinion on the candidate or his party;

(c) Mention: articles generally included under the headlines that mention the respective presidential aspirants, without discussing them in detail.

Based on the information analyzed in the manner described above, there was a clear imbalance in the amount of space given to the different candidates. It can be said that the candidates Jamil Mahuad (Popular Democratic Party [DP]) and Alvaro Noboa (Ecuadorian Roldosista Party [PRE]) attracted the most attention from the media. They were the winners of the first round of the elections.

Moreover, a difference in preferences could be noted in press coverage in the sierra and on the coast. In newspapers in the sierra, that is, those in Quito, more extensive coverage was given to the candidate Jamil Mahuad (DP), followed by the candidate Rodrigo Borja (ID). Newspapers on the coast, based in Guayaquil, gave wider coverage to the activities of the candidate Alvaro Noboa (PRE) and, to a lesser but relatively significant extent, the candidate Freddy Ehlers (MCNP).

The results of the analysis revealed a dearth of coverage by the print media of the participation of the two female presidential candidates: Rosalía Arteaga (National Alliance) and María Eugenia Lima (MPD). A fair amount of coverage was given to the candidates Rodrigo Borja (ID) and Freddy Ehlers (mCNP). We have already mentioned the difference in preference shown towards these two candidates in the coastal area and the sierra.

In terms of the content of the information, it should be pointed out that the most controversial articles pertained to the participation in the campaign of candidates Jamil Mahuad (DP) and Alvaro Noboa (PRE), particularly the crossfire of accusations between the two during the week preceding the elections. The press covered these accusations on a daily basis, generally eclipsing the other four candidates. First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 33

The press, however, was not critical of the candidate Rodrigo Borja (ID) and limited itself to a description of his activities and the objectives of his party.

In terms of editorials, the focus of the criticism of columnists was primarily on candidate Alvaro Noboa (PRE), followed by Jamil Mahuad (DP). The criticism of Noboa focused on his ties with deposed former president Abdalá Bucaram and claimed that a victory by the PRE would mean the return of Ecuador to the Bucaramista era.

The criticism of candidate Jamil Mahuad (DP) focused on his ties to the current government apparatus, primarily on the corruption that had been uncovered recently in the Ecuadorian public sector.

MAY 1998 ELECTIONS

CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 25 1 1 2 Alvaro Noboa 25 1 4 3 Rosalía Arteaga 25 - - - Rodrigo Borja 25 - - 1 Ma. E. Lima 25 - - 2 Freddy Ehlers 25 - - 1 CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 26 5 - 5 Alvaro Noboa 26 4 - 4 Rosalía Arteaga 26 2 - 2 Rodrigo Borja 26 2 - 2 Ma. E. Lima 26 - - 2 Freddy Ehlers 26 - - 2 CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 27 8 - 8 Alvaro Noboa 27 9 1 8 Rosalía Arteaga 27 - - 6 Rodrigo Borja 27 2 - 5 Ma. E. Lima 27 - - 3 Freddy Ehlers 27 1 - 6

CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 28 4 5 10 Alvaro Noboa 28 6 3 10 Rosalía Arteaga 28 2 - 4 Rodrigo Borja 28 2 - 6 Ma. E. Lima 28 - - 4 Freddy Ehlers 28 1 - 9 CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 29 6 - 12 Alvaro Noboa 29 5 3 12 34 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

Rosalía Arteaga 29 2 - 4 Rodrigo Borja 29 3 - 8 Ma. E. Lima 29 1 - 7 Freddy Ehlers 29 3 - 7 CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 30 6 7 11 Alvaro Noboa 30 5 4 13 Rosalía Arteaga 30 2 - 2 Rodrigo Borja 30 3 - 7 Ma. E. Lima 30 - - 4 Freddy Ehlers 30 3 - 3 CANDIDATE DAY HEADLINE EDITORIAL MENTION Jamil Mahuad 31 9 3 4 Alvaro Noboa 31 9 2 5 Rosalía Arteaga 31 7 1 5 Rodrigo Borja 31 7 1 6 Ma. E. Lima 31 6 1 6 Freddy Ehlers 31 8 1 4

Verification of voter registration lists

One of the activities carried out by the EOM/EC was the verification of the voter registration list. Because of the number of names on this list, that is 7,072,496, it was impossible (and unnecessary) to do a complete review of all the records. For this reason, a sample of 1,000 was selected for purposes of verification.

In this regard, a simple random sample was prepared. We selected 1,000 names randomly, from 1 to 7,072,496, corresponding to the numbers of the voter registration list. This number was turned over to the computer center of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which looked for the records that corresponded to the names on the list.

After identifying those 1,000 voters, it was possible to do a search in the civil register for the data corresponding to these persons. Since the information appearing on the voter registration list had to have come from the civil register, a comparison of the information from those two sources made it possible to identify inaccuracies in the transcription process of the information. Also, during this process, data on the voter registration list was checked.

The list below shows the percentage of voters according to province who are included in the sample of 1,000 voters from the electoral list, and the percentage of voters on the lists at the polling stations. This made it possible to ascertain that the percentages were virtually the same for the same province in both columns. In other words, there was no evidence of alteration of the information on the voter registration list and the information transferred to the polling station lists.

Voters Province percent of Voters in the the percent on the Polling Station Sample Lists First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 35

AZUAY 6.3 5.1 BOLIVAR 1.7 1.7 CANAR 2.0 1.9 CARCHI 1.6 1.4 COTOPAXI 3.3 3.0 CHIMBORAZO 3.8 3.8 EL ORO 3.7 4.4 ESMERALDAS 2.5 3.0 GUAYAS 24.5 25.9 IMBABURA 3.2 3.0 LOJA 3.4 3.7 LOS RIOS 4.6 5.2 MANABI 10.5 11.0 MORONA SANTIAGO 0.7 0.8 NAPO 0.8 0.9 PASTAZA 0.6 0.4 PICHINCHA 19.9 19.3 TUNGURAHUA 5.2 4.1 ZAMORA CHINCHIPE 0.6 0.5 SUCUMBIOS 1.1 0.8

The following table presents a number of discrepancies encountered in the sample taken from the voter registration lists, the frequency of their occurrence, percentages, their lower and upper confidence limits, with a confidence factor of 95 percent.

Lower Upper Description Frequency Percentage Limit Limit Code in the province of birth equal to 11 1.1 0.6 2.0 zero Code in the canton of birth equal to zero 11 1.1 0.6 2.0 Fingerprint – blank or invalid 46 4.6 3.4 6.1 Date of change of domicile – invalid 5 0.5 0.2 1.2 Date of invalid entry on the voter 2 0.2 0.0 0.7 registration list Military or police 4 0.4 0.1 1.0

Through a comparison of the data in the voter registration list with the information in the civil register, discrepancies were detected in electoral domicile. However, these discrepancies did not pose a problem given the fact that a voter can change his electoral domicile by going in person to the TSE.

This led us to consider the possible occurrence of the following situation: a voter changes his address on January 1 by going to the TSE, and as a result, that information appears only on the voter registration list. On February 2, the voter gets married and changes his address as a result, and this information is recorded in the civil register. This gives rise to a discrepancy from that time on in the residence of the voter recorded at the TSE and in the register. If the registry were to send periodic updates to the TSE, then the most recent information in the Register could be entered on the voter 36 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

registration list. For this reason, it is considered useful to check the mechanisms for the transfer of information between the two entities.

Verification of information systems

The EOM/EC checked the information system used by the TSE, and in particular the system of communication used for the transmission of electoral data. In this regard, the EOM/EC evaluated the integrity, transparency, and security of the process intended to accompany vote-counting, from the time of the closing of each polling station until the announcement of the final results of the first round of the 1998 general elections.

The assistance received from the TSE and TPE computer centers in Pichincha for the proper performance of this task was very important. They consistently provided the EOM/EC with the information needed to do its work. In this regard, during subsequent discussions with these officials, a description was provided, among other things, of the voting process, the structure of the electoral information system, and the platform used.

Furthermore, a demonstration was done of the functioning of the system, which included a simulation of data entry. This made it possible to verify the authorization to use the different options based on a user category (data processor, inspector, supervisor) and to perform checks to ensure that the system was secure.

The information system used for vote-counting, which was developed by the technicians of the TSE computer centers, had already been used in previous elections, and only underwent a few changes, based on the new electoral law. This system was divided into two subsystems, namely:

· The entry and consolidation of electoral data by province

· The national consolidation of electoral data

The system was designed in this manner to bring it into conformity with legislation in force (Article 66 of the Implementing Regulations of the Electoral Law), which stipulated that the entry of data contained in the records and the summary of the votes cast at all polling stations in each province must be done at the provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs).

The subsystem that deals with the “entry and consolidation of data” was developed to run on computers with DOS, using the CLIPPER language. Each TPE had a network of computers linked to a local server. The number of computers available at each TPE was determined by the number of registered voters in each province. Each local server had a modem and a dedicated line for communicating with the TSE, which was activated at the time of transfer of data and disconnected after that in order to avoid break-ins.

The subsystem that dealt with “the consolidation of national data” was developed for use on an IBM/AS-400 computer. This subsystem received data transmitted by TPEs, via modem, through a specific line, and tabulated them.

First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 37

On May 30, TPEs received the final version of the subsystems and conducted the final tests. During these tests, checks were done to ensure that the bases did not contain previously loaded data, that is, that the values for all data were equal to zero.

On May 31, after the entry of data by the TPEs, reports were issued and visual presentations were done so that persons present could verify that the number of initial votes was equal to zero for all offices in the electoral race and for each candidate, a process that confirmed that no data had been previously entered.

After the start of the entry of data into the bases, periodic reports were issued containing the total number of votes, the total number of spoiled votes, the total number of blank votes, and the total number of votes per candidate, broken down according to parish, as well as the total or partial votes for the province.

In view of the computer environment used, proper security measures were adopted insofar as possible. The following can be mentioned, for example:

· The installation of the program codes in the servers of each provincial electoral tribunal (TPE);

· The use of security codes by each data processor, inspector, and supervisor, which controlled the possibilities in terms of access to the different options of the subsystems;

· The recording of the individual code for each of the functions used.

Despite this, the security of the system also depended on the trust placed in each of the 21 officials of the computer centers belonging to the TPEs and in the systems analysts at the TSE computer center.

Description of procedures and checkpoints

The vote-counting process began with the counting of votes at polling stations, which was done on the basis of the procedures stipulated by the TSE and outlined in the electoral booklet for the 1998 general elections.

After this, the records were received and analyzed by the members of the respective TPE. The following steps were then followed until all the records for the province were prepared:

· The records that raised questions were separated for subsequent recounting of votes;

· The records that were approved were forwarded for data entry to the computer centers, where they were scanned and their bar codes verified. The records that were not approved were sent back for a recounting of the votes;

· The records with correct bar codes were grouped in batches and sent to two data processors for data entry;

38 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

· The records were coded and a report issued on the data entered into the data base;

· The batches of records whose data had been entered were separated according to records that were accepted or rejected by the system and then turned over for verification with the report attached on the data obtained from the data base;

· Another two-person team then did a visual verification of the work done. The records that were correct were filed, those in which errors were detected were sent for modification to the supervisor, and the rest sent on for another vote count;

· The erroneous data on the records received by the supervisor were changed, and once they were in order, they were sent on for filing;

· Periodically, scheduled breaks were taken for the purpose of data consolidation, the issuance of partial reports, and the transmission of results to the TSE; · The data received by the TSE was placed with the already existing data;

· Periodically, the TSE checked a file containing national consolidated data, by parish and by province, for each candidate. This file was also sent to SATnet (private company that provided access and had an agreement with the TSE), which posted the data on the Internet.

The process analyzed, from the receipt of records from each polling station to the obtaining of partial results by province to the tabulation of national data, was in keeping with the objectives. However, it was not completely efficient. The countless manual procedures compromised the process, which resulted in a greater number of checkpoints and the duplication of tasks. In addition, the process became more expensive, since more time and effort was needed to complete the work.

The general consensus was that it was not possible to confirm that the information system used was inviolable. Strictly speaking, it contained a number of weaknesses linked largely to the use of a number of antiquated tools and to the legislation in force, which prohibited the entry and consolidation of data in a centralized manner, something that would have minimized the security problems of the system.

Technical recommendations

Despite the lack of sufficient time to develop a new electoral information system for the second round of elections in 1998, consideration should be given to a number of technical proposals and recommendations for use in future elections that would lend greater transparency to the process, particularly the proposal by one of the political parties regarding the possible availability of electoral data grouped according to polling station.

Furthermore, studies should be done to update existing technology, in order to make it more flexible and secure. The design of a new communications network is therefore recommended, with the proper screening of access to prevent break-ins and to permit linkage between all TPEs and the TSE.

First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 39

Use of a comprehensive data base is also recommended to support the large volume of data, as well as an approach towards development of the system that permits the rapid adaptation of applications in order to accommodate the different electoral events. The training of computer professionals is indispensable for the adaptation of the new technology adopted.

The development of a new system should be preceded by a review of the vote-counting procedure and the updating of current legislation to respond to the modernization of work flows. This solution will facilitate more rapid vote-counting and consolidation of data, thereby making the process more efficient through the automation of at least part of the current manual procedures, such as visual verification. National simulation of data transmission is recommended to verify the effectiveness of the system instituted, the level of understanding by processors of the system, and the effectiveness of communication lines when they are overloaded (the time needed for each phase of the process should be measured, however).

The Internet should be used to make election data available to all interested parties and should be organized based on different options: from the most detailed information to the provision of grand totals, thereby eliminating the waste of resources and time involved in printing reports.

Election day

On election day, observers who were stationed at the different sub-offices of the EOM/EC visited the different electoral facilities from the time of the opening of polling stations to the conclusion of vote-counting at these stations, in order to observe the electoral process. To that end, each observer was assigned a route that was mapped out beforehand. This route was determined on the basis of the need to include polling stations in both urban and rural areas in the observation process, and initially, the more heavily populated zones in order to obtain the most representative information possible for the region as a whole.

The impressions of observers in the different regions of the country during the voting process on May 31 are provided below.

Regional reports

1. Guayaquil sub-office

The city of Guayaquil, located on the coast of Ecuador, is the most populous area of the country, with a population of approximately 3 million inhabitants. It is also the capital of Guayas Province. This province is the leading electoral district in the country, containing 25.95 percent of voters at the national level, with a population of approximately 1.8 million. Guayaquil has approximately 18 percent of that electoral population, which means that it has a population of 1.1 million.

In visiting the different polling stations on election day, it could be seen that the electoral process was going very smoothly. No complaints were received regarding irregularities, and the difficulties noted were linked largely to the absence of members from polling stations, which led to delays in opening (some stations did not begin their operations until 10 a.m.). Also, there was a 40 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

certain amount of confusion on the part of voters regarding the station where they were supposed to cast their votes. Furthermore, there were a number of difficulties related to the number of ballots, to their size, and to the procedures to be followed, as a result of the lack of training of polling station members. It should be pointed out that a significant number of polling stations did not have the seven alternate members as stipulated in the existing regulations, and many of these operated with alternate members and voters who were called upon to perform this function without proper training beforehand. The observers assigned to the Guayaquil sub-office were assisted by seven students from the Catholic University, who began their tasks at 2 p.m., and whose principal function was to obtain a representative sample by collecting the vote-counting data of a polling station designated beforehand.

Political propaganda was seen on the premises of most polling stations, particularly PRE propaganda. At 5 p.m., the closing time of polling stations, many voters were waiting on line at the polling stations at which observers were present, and these persons were not permitted to exercise their right to vote. Different problems were encountered with vote-counting at the polling stations. At times, the number of ballots made this process unwieldy. At many stations, particularly those located outside the city, power outages made vote-counting difficult.

2. Cuenca sub-office

In general, polling stations began their operations one-and-a-half hours late, due largely to the late arrival of polling station members. No electoral material was missing, and a great deal of assistance was received from the armed forces in terms of organizing material and making it available, as well as keeping order in the formation of different lines of men and women.

During the course of the day, the electoral process proceeded in an atmosphere of calm, with the marked absence of representatives of the political parties and with few crowds of voters. No acts of violence or political campaigning were noted.

A number of stations failed to guarantee voting secrecy. However, this did not appear to bother the voters in general. One factor that created a clear problem was the difficulty in placing ballots in the ballot boxes because of their size and their numbers, thus the need to fold them several times to get them into the box.

3. Ibarra sub-office

In the provinces of Imbabura and Carchi, difficulties in establishing the polling stations were widespread because the voters selected to serve there failed to show up. Although the TPE personnel sent to the different parishes and cantons acted quickly to resolve this problem, in general, delays in the opening of stations and the commencement of voting were unavoidable. Furthermore, because of the absence of many regular members, the polling stations were operated by persons who had not been trained to perform this task.

At some of the stations visited, the space used did not meet the necessary conditions for the setting up of polling stations in such a way as to guarantee voting secrecy. Despite this, there were no incidents noted of persons taking advantage of this situation to influence or manipulate voters. First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 41

In the rural areas in particular, difficulties were encountered by voters at the time of voting because of the lack of familiarity with voting mechanisms and the difficulty handling the ballots, which were too big. In general, there was a noticeable dearth of representatives of political parties in electoral districts, not only during voting but also at the time that the votes were counted.

The members of the armed forces participated actively not only in ensuring safe conditions within polling stations but also assisted with organizational aspects, such as ensuring that orderly lines were formed by voters. However, it was noted that the polling station members had difficulty completing the forms pertaining to the different records, particularly the vote-counting forms, because of their length and complexity.

In particular, it should be pointed out that in the Las Gaviotas area, which corresponded to the parish outside the provinces of Imbabura and Esmeraldas, voting did not take place because of the failure to indicate to which of these two provincial jurisdictions this area belonged. There has been a delay on the part of the National Commission on Internal Boundaries in issuing a decision to resolve this boundary problem. As a result, and because of uncertainty regarding the jurisdiction of the area, the Imbabura TPE issued 500 voting certificates to persons living in Las Golondrinas, who ended up not being able to exercise their right to vote.

4. Ambato sub-office

Of the electoral stations that were visited on election day, priority was given by observers to the provinces of Chimborazo and Tungurahua because these provinces are heavily populated and vehicular access to them is easier.

At the polling stations where the opening was observed, operations began later than the time stipulated in the law, and in one, the ballots were not counted before voting began. However, when the members of the polling stations were asked during visits later on whether the stations were opened on time and were in conformity with the law, most responded in the affirmative.

In general, voting proceeded peacefully, without security problems and without any serious irregularities. At most voting centers there were TSE information desks, and coordinators were present to supervise and in many cases assist polling station members in the performance of their duties.

Moreover, most of the polling station members demonstrated the knowledge necessary to handle electoral procedures. This was more clearly demonstrated at the time of closing, with this process taking place in an organized and efficient manner, in keeping with the measures stipulated in the specific electoral rules.

5. Portoviejo sub-office

Manabí Province, one of the provinces most affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon, the capital of which is Portoviejo, is the third biggest electoral district in the country. Most of the 42 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

roads are in very bad condition, mud has seeped into the cities, and many public and private buildings have been severely damaged by the heavy rains.

This weather phenomenon had a big impact on the voting process. First, as can be expected, it was a factor that discouraged voter turnout. Several population groups in the province were more interested in surviving than in participating in the elections. The impact of this was negative, resulting in increased absenteeism in the region. Second, a large number of electoral facilities were affected, and this led to them being moved elsewhere whenever this was possible. In a number of stations, there were power outages, and as a result generators and candles were used on election day. At the Manabí TPE, an alert was issued and alternative stations were being announced until the very last minute, in the event that weather conditions worsened. In order to accommodate voters, the TPE made strategic plans for the relocation of stations, due to, among other things, problems related to damage of road and bridge infrastructure. In the cantons of Sucre and Pedernales, the polling stations were moved to areas closer to the shelters where the disaster victims were being housed.

Insofar as electoral material is concerned, the TSE did not submit the vote-counting forms for persons on the municipal council ballot. The TPE decided that each polling station would void one of the municipal council ballots, since it included the names of the candidates for this position, and would use it to facilitate vote-counting, thereby avoiding having to write the list of contending parties and candidates on a blank sheet of paper. Using the voided ballot, the polling station members were able to note the number of votes received by each candidate in the spaces next to their names.

6. Esmeraldas center

In addition to serious economic, employment, and infrastructure problems, was one of the provinces, which, like Manabí, was the most seriously affected by the El Niño phenomenon. Also, the relative inaccessibility of some areas and the way some roads were blockerd, particularly on the coast, were additionalfactors to be considered. For these reasons, and taking into account the impact of these factors on the electorate, for many voters, the principal concern was subsistence. Casting a vote was secondary. Furthermore, votes were being cast against a backdrop of a decisive lack of confidence in the system and political leaders.

On election day, the coastal region of the province was hit by torrential rains. With the exception of Quininde, when polling stations opened, there were general problems, such as delays and absences on the part of the persons who were supposed to be providing services there. The TPE acted quickly to mobilize students to perform this task. However, in some areas, the rains forced the suspension of the process for several hours, which significantly lowered voter turnout, which, in some instances, was between 65 and 70 percent.

Based on the work done by observers in the province, the process was too complicated. Voter knowledge of electoral procedures was very deficient, there were too many ballots and they were also too big. It was noted that many voters, particularly those who are illiterate, were intimidated since they did not know how the ballots should be handled, and in a province where the illiteracy rate is 27 percent, this had a significant impact on voter turnout. For this reason also, a First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 43

significant number of the ballots were null or blank. At some polling stations, this number was 35 percent.

Vote counting

EOM/EC observers, sent to different areas of the country, observed the initial vote-counting process at polling stations, and then at the TPEs and the TSE, observing the process until the official announcement of the results.

During the vote-counting process, the EOM/EC checked the computer systems at the TPEs and the TSE using the VALIDAT.EXE. program. The function of this program is to do a “check sum” of the file, a calculation that is based on the bytes of the file. The calculation provides two six- digit numbers. If any of the bytes of the file being checked is changed, the numbers calculated also change.

Vote counting at polling stations

In general, vote-counting began at polling stations at 5 p.m., as indicated in the regulations. From the time of closing, polling station members started to put ballots in order, a task that was fairly complex given their numbers and size.

Vote counting proceeded in an orderly and satisfactory manner, despite a number of difficulties, such as the slow pace caused by the number of ballots, the complexity of the records and forms to be completed, and at some stations, power outages, which made vote-counting difficult. During vote-counting at polling stations, the coordinators of the different TPEs were present and provided advice and assistance to polling station officials.

Vote counting at TPEs

In general, the vote-counting process at the TPEs proceeded efficiently, and observation took place in the manner set forth in the Electoral Law and its Implementing Regulations, with the press, the representatives of political parties, political groups, and national and international observers being allowed to enter the facilities and to have access to information.

Guayas Province was an exception, since the vote-counting for the five elections (president and vice president, national representatives, provincial representatives, and cantonal councils) officially ended on July 11, on the eve of the second electoral round. This process lasted 39 days, that is, 29 days beyond the deadline stipulated in the legislation in force, because the vote-counting for the electoral divisions of the province had been overlooked.

Many factors contributed to the delay during that phase. On election day, the vote count for persons on the ballots for provincial representatives, provincial councils, and municipal councils (single candidate or multiple candidate selections) began very late, after votes were cast for national offices, something that was of greater interest to the population. Because it was late and because of the lack of proper physical conditions at the polling stations, polling station members and the representatives of political parties stopped the vote-counting process on many occasions, and as a result, the records were not completed properly. 44 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

As these records got to the TPE in Guayas, it was noted that they were incomplete, altered, or the pertinent information was simply missing. TPE officials then made a note of these irregularities and opened the ballots and did a vote-by-vote count.

For this reason, ballots from approximately 3,000 polling stations out of a total of 6,154 throughout the province had to be opened and counted. The opening of such a large number of ballots led to long working days at the TPE, where emergency measures had to be adopted to handle the situation effectively.

Fifty vote-counting modules were then formed, each comprising one official from the tribunal and representatives of political parties who were involved in the election. It should be pointed out that only the Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE), Popular Democracy (DP), the Social Christian Party (PSC), and the Democratic Left (ID) were represented at all the modules, since they were main ones with a vested interest, in view of the fact that they were most heavily favored by the electorate.

Vote counting at the polling stations was problematic and difficult since each ballot was individually checked by each representative. This circulation and review of the ballots often led to confusion, something that was seized on by the different party representatives to bolster their arguments that there were irregularities on the ballots, which did not reflect their preferences. Complaints were collected regarding the cancellation of votes by the different delegates by means of the marking the ballots.

This kind of incident led to innumerable complaints and objections from political parties, all of which had to be transmitted on a daily basis to the tribunal so that its regular members could address them. The group that filed the largest number of complaints with the TPE was the Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) and the Social Christian Party (PSC).

Vote counting at the TSE

Vote counting at the national level was done as the TPEs furnished the partial results for each jurisdiction.

In accordance with the Implementing Regulations to the Electoral Law, the TSE is responsible for the national vote count and for announcing the results of the elections for president and vice president of the Republic and for national representatives, and in cases where a plebiscite or referendum is held. Once the national vote counted ended, the number of valid votes obtained for each candidate or list, as appropriate, were counted. The TSE announced the definitive results of voting and awarded the appropriate seats. Blank and null ballots were counted but did not influence the results.

Because none of the presidential candidates obtained half plus one of the valid votes, a second electoral round was scheduled for July 12, 1998, in which the two candidates on the binomial ballot who received the most votes in the first round would participate. The candidates Jamil Mahuad (DP) and Alvaro Noboa (PRE) were thus the contenders in the round for the election of president. It should be pointed out that of a total of 2,598,915 valid votes, the candidate Jamil First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 45

Mahuad obtained 927,586 votes and candidate Alvaro Noboa obtained 576,929 votes (approximately 35.69 percent and 22.19 percent, respectively).

Based on official data, during the first electoral round, a level of absenteeism of 35.83 percent was noted, the equivalent of 2,534,674 voters. It is useful to point out that almost 1.5 million persons on the voter registration list live abroad. The highest level of absenteeism was in Morona Santiago Province (45.3 percent), and the lowest level, in (28.5 percent).

Projection of trends

One of the activities planned by the EOM/EC was a projection of trends in the cantons of Quito and Guayaquil, which were selected because they are so densely populated. To that end, 12 polling stations in the canton of Quito () and 10 in the canton of Guayaquil (Guayas Province) were randomly selected. Vote counting at these polling stations was observed by the members of the OAS Mission.

The information obtained regarding the results at the polling stations for the election of president and vice president was used to make a projection regarding the trend expected in terms of vote-counting for all those cantons.

The results of the projected trends for the canton of Quito are presented in the table below:

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Coefficient of Confidence: 99.0 percent QUITO

Lower Upper Votes Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 42.4 32.3 52.5 10.1 BORJA 34.4 30.1 38.7 4.3 EHLERS 14.4 9.1 19.8 5.4 NOBOA 5.6 4.3 7.0 1.3 EUGENIA 1.9 1.0 2.8 0.9 ARTEAGA 1.2 0.7 1.8 0.5 Blank 1.9 0.5 3.3 1.4 Null 5.0 2.6 7.5 2.4 Abstention 27.4 24.3 30.6 3.1

The results of the project trends for the canton of Guayaquil are presented in the table below:

Percentage of Vo tes and Confidence Limits Coefficient of Confidence: 99.0 percent GUAYAQUIL

Lower Upper 46 First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998

Votes Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 44.0 36.6 51.5 7.5 NOBOA 38.4 30.5 46.3 7.9 EHLERS 8.5 6.2 10.8 2.3 ARTEAGA 3.9 2.0 5.8 1.9 BORJA 3.9 2.7 5.1 1.2 EUGENIA 1.2 0.5 1.9 0.7 Blank 3.1 1.1 5.1 2.0 Null 7.2 5.0 9.3 2.2 Abstention 35.5 33.3 37.7 2.2

Combining the results for both cantons (Quito and Guayaquil), the following results were obtained:

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Coefficient of Confidence: 99.0 percent QUITO + GUAYAQUIL

Lower Upper Votes Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 43.3 37.1 49.5 6.2 NOBOA 22.7 18.5 26.9 4.2 EHLERS 18.5 16.3 20.6 2.1 ARTEAGA 11.4 8.5 14.2 2.8 BORJA 2.6 1.6 3.7 1.0 EUGENIA 1.5 1.0 2.1 0.6 Blank 2.5 1.3 3.8 1.3 Null 6.1 4.5 7.8 1.6 Abstention 31.7 29.8 33.5 1.9

Conclusions

With regard to the electoral process corresponding to the first round held on May 31, 1998, the EOM/EC thinks it useful to present the following conclusions:

1. The people went to the polls in an atmosphere of calm and demonstrated decisive civic commitment to the process of democracy.

2. We think it essential to stress the efforts made by the electoral authorities -- the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and provincial electoral tribunals -- and by the armed forces and national police, with regard to the logistical organization, distribution, and collection of electoral material and the maintaining of safe conditions, all of which are First Electoral Round: May 31, 1998 47

indispensable in safeguarding the process.

3. Difficulties were encountered on election day because of the delays in establishing polling stations. Furthermore, difficulties were encountered during voting as a result of the volume and size of ballots, and the location of polling stations, folding screens, and ballot boxes at polling stations.

4. The intense rains in the coastal area, primarily in the regions of Manabí and Esmeraldas, added to the devastation and other unfavorable effects caused by the El Niño phenomenon in the region and created serious difficulty for the people in some locations in terms of getting to the respective polling station. These circumstances undoubtedly contributed to the low voter turnout in the region.

5. A review of the voter registration list, based on a comparative study of the percentages of information appearing on them and on the lists at polling stations, did not reveal evidence of the alteration of data on this list when it was transferred to the polling station lists.

6. A review of the computer system at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and at the different provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs) did not reveal any irregularities whatsoever.

CHAPTER V Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

Spread among six regions and based in Quito with sub-offices in Ibarra, Cuenca, Guayaquil, Portoviejo, and Esmeraldas, the activities of the observers related to the second round of the elections started with the reestablishment of contact with the electoral authorities, representatives of political parties, the armed forces, the mass media, and the people in general, and continued with the observation and distribution of material during the pre-election period.

On election day, the observers were present when the polling stations were opened and remained to observe the voting process by the people and the vote-counting by the members of the polling stations and by the TPEs.

Moreover, during the second electoral round on July 12, 1998, the EOM/EC did a projection of trends on election day in Quito and Guayaquil, the capitals of the provinces and whose electorate represents almost 45 percent of the registered voters in the country.

The elections of July 12 took place in an atmosphere of calm and in an orderly fashion, without any serious incidents. The setting up of polling stations took place, for the most part, within the stipulated time frame, and both voting and vote-counting at the polling stations took place very quickly. Instead of five elections that were held in the first round (with large ballots and numerous candidates, which undoubtedly made the voting process difficult), Ecuadorian voters were having a single election, with a two-candidate ballot for president and vice president of the republic. The armed forces played an important role in the transport and distribution of electoral material to polling stations and in the forwarding of ballot boxes and records from polling stations to the TPEs once the vote-counting had ended.

During the second electoral round, a lower level of absenteeism was noted at the national level compared to the first round: 29.86 percent, that is, 2,112,438 voters. Of this total, the highest level of absenteeism was in the Province of Morona Santiago (44.19 percent) and the lowest, in the Province of Pichincha (23.8 percent). The lower level of absenteeism was undoubtedly related to the greater simplicity and speed of voting, among other things, since it involved choosing between one of two binomial ballots, shorter waits on line, and better weather conditions.

The projection of the results by the mass media and the announcement of candidate Jamil Mahuad (DP) as the winner led to a strong reaction from opponent Alvaro Noboa (PRE). Representatives from his coalition also objected to the information disclosed by the media, claiming that the former president of Ecuador, Abdalá Bucaram (PRE), had extended his congratulations from overseas to candidate Mahuad on his victory (this claim was denied by the former president in a telephone conversation with the Chief of Mission).

52 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

In light of this, the candidate Alvaro Noboa made claims of fraud and called on his electorate to go to the TPEs to “defend their vote.” Violent acts and incidents occurred during the vote- counting at the headquarters and in the vicinity of the tribunals of Guayas, Cuenca, Portoviejo, and Pichincha, where the armed forces and national police had to intervene in order to prevent the people from bursting into the headquarters and causing damage.

The EOM/EC received verbal complaints and a copy of the objections filed by candidate Alvaro Noboa (PRE) and his representatives with the electoral authorities in Guayas Province. In these objections, reference was made to the existence of “monumental fraud” and to numerical irregularities in a small number of vote-counting records. As a result, the opening of ballot boxes and a vote-by-vote count of the ballots at all the polling stations in the province (leading electoral district of the country) was called for. The narrow margin of difference in votes between the results of the two candidates certainly favored the claims for opening the ballot boxes and a vote-by-vote recount of the ballots.

The aforementioned complaints of the PRE included the claim that during the second round, a greater number of polling stations had been set up than in the first round. In this regard, the TSE issued verification, through its technical director, stating that in both the first and second rounds, the electoral records had been prepared using the same voter registration list, and on both occasions, information was sent to 7,072,496 voters spread among 23,977 polling stations.

The EOM/EC informed the TSE of the aforementioned complaints and did follow-up work with the electoral authorities regarding the handling of these complaints, keeping the complainant informed at all times on the progress made.

In light of a situation in which the two candidates could claim victory, the EOM/EC decided to do a post-electoral review of the voting records at the TPEs and also a vote count for a group of polling stations selected beforehand by statistical sampling. This activity would determine whether the results were valid and, if they were found to be valid, would dispel the doubts of one of the candidates regarding official projections. It should be pointed out that the large-scale opening of ballot boxes and vote-counting was an activity that would have called for resources and would have been time consuming, thereby jeopardizing observance of the electoral schedule and the swearing-in of the new president on the date planned.

In this regard, after consultation with the TSE and receipt of the pertinent authorization from this electoral entity, the EOM/EC carried out, on July 21, 22, and 23, based on the selection of national samples, the two processes to review the validity of the vote-counting conducted by the TPEs and to verify the vote-counting results at polling stations. These reviews, known technically as “parallel tabulation,” are routine activities for the OAS electoral observation missions, since they provide these missions with the data and statistical support needed to evaluate vote-counting, computation, and, in the final analysis, the transparency and integrity of the electoral process.

In order to verify vote-counting during the second round of the presidential elections, a random sample of 300 cases was prepared: 150 polling stations corresponding to the region of the sierra and another group comprising of the same number of polling stations corresponding to the coastal region.

Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998 53

Each group of polling stations constituted one stratum, and for this reason, the process involved a stratified random sample. Based on the information collected and discussions held beforehand with sociologists, leaders of political parties, specialists, and persons familiar with the political features specific to Ecuador, the division of the country into those two different strata was based on the difference in the electoral patterns of voters in the two regions.

A list of the 300 polling stations included in the sample is provided below:

SAMPLE (COAST ) 150 POLLING STATIONS

OBS STRATUM NAME OF NAME OF CANTON NAME OF PARISH POLLING PROV. STATION

1 COSTA EL ORO HUAQUILLAS HUAQUILLAS 11 2 COSTA EL ORO HUAQUILLAS HUAQUILLAS 27 3 COSTA EL ORO LAS LAJAS LA VISTORIA 9 4 COSTA EL ORO MACHALA MACHALA 21 5 COSTA EL ORO MACHALA MACHALA 92 6 COSTA EL ORO MACHALA MACHALA 127 7 COSTA EL ORO MACHALA MACHALA 150 8 COSTA EL ORO PASAJE OCHOA LEON/MATRIZ 36 9 COSTA EL ORO PASAJE OCHOA LEON/MATRIZ 94 10 COSTA ESMERALDAS ATACAMES ATACAMES 1 11 COSTA ESMERALDAS ATACAMES TONCHIGUE 3 12 COSTA ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS BARTOLOME RUIZ 17 13 COSTA ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS 104 14 COSTA ESMERALDAS MUISNE SAN GREGORIO 3 15 COSTA ESMERALDAS QUININDE ROSA ZARATE 8 16 COSTA ESMERALDAS QUININDE ROSA ZARATE 117 17 COSTA ESMERALDAS QUININDE VICHE 7 18 COSTA GUAYAS BALAO 20 19 COSTA GUAYAS BALZAR BALZAR 13 20 COSTA GUAYAS DAULE DAULE 25 21 COSTA GUAYAS DURAN ELOY ALFARO/DURAN 9 22 COSTA GUAYAS DURAN ELOY ALFARO/DURAN 76 23 COSTA GUAYAS DURAN ELOY ALFARO/DURAN 140 24 COSTA GUAYAS EL EMPALME VELASCO IBARRA 40 25 COSTA GUAYAS EL EMPALME VELASCO IBARRA 98 26 COSTA GUAYAS EL EMPALME VELASCO IBARRA 101 27 COSTA GUAYAS EL TRIUNFO EL TRIUNFO 7 28 COSTA GUAYAS EL TRIUNFO EL TRIUNFO 27 29 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL BOLIVAR/SAGRARIO 24 30 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL CARBO/CONCEPCION 66 31 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL CARBO/CONCEPCION 127 32 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL CARBO/CONCEPCION 129 33 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 28 34 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 154 35 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 162 36 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 254 37 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 315 38 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 401 39 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 444 40 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 452 41 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 600 42 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 653 54 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

43 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 737 44 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 747 45 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 806 46 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 861 47 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 911 48 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL GARCIA MORENO 43 49 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL LETAMENDI 17 50 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL LETAMENDI 72 51 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL LETAMENDI 110 52 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL LETAMENDI 210 53 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL LETAMENDI 299 54 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL PASCUALES 43 55 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL ROCA 10 56 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL ROCA 25 57 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL ROCA 33 58 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL ROCAFUERTE 34 59 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL SUCRE 2 60 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 149 61 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 217 62 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 232 63 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 515 64 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 556 65 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 705 66 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL URDANETA 21 67 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL URDANETA 68 68 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 53 69 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 216 70 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 293 71 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 402 72 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 435 73 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 576 74 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 632 75 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 634 76 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 648 77 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 764 78 COSTA GUAYAS LA LIBERTAD LA LIBERTAD/LA PRO 55 79 COSTA GUAYAS MILAGRO MILAGRO 177 80 COSTA GUAYAS MILAGRO MILAGRO 205 81 COSTA GUAYAS MILAGRO MILAGRO 212 82 COSTA GUAYAS MILAGRO MILAGRO 226 83 COSTA GUAYAS MILAGRO MILAGRO 235 84 COSTA GUAYAS NARANJITO NARANJITO 34 85 COSTA GUAYAS PEDRO CARBO PEDRO CARBO 42 86 COSTA GUAYAS PLAYAS GRAL.VILLAMIL/PLAY 27 87 COSTA GUAYAS SANTA ELENA BALLENITA 1 88 COSTA GUAYAS SANTA ELENA CHANDUY 12 89 COSTA GUAYAS SANTA LUCIA SANTA LUCIA 10 90 COSTA GUAYAS SANTA LUCIA SANTA LUCIA 32 91 COSTA GUAYAS SANTA LUCIA SANTA LUCIA 49 92 COSTA GUAYAS URBINA JADO CENTRAL 35 93 COSTA GUAYAS URBINA JADO GRAL. VERNAZA 4 94 COSTA GUAYAS YAGUACHI YAGUACHI VIEJO/CON 6 95 COSTA LOS RIOS BABA BABA 38 96 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO BARREIRO/STA RITA 14 97 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO CLEMENTE BAQUERIZO 3 98 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO CLEMENTE BAQUERIZO 8 99 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO CLEMENTE BAQUERIZO 25 100 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO CLEMENTE BAQUERIZO 86 101 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO DR CAMILO PONCE EN 16 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998 55

102 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO DR CAMILO PONCE EN 52 103 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO FEBRES CORDERO 9 104 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO LA UNION 1 105 COSTA LOS RIOS BABAHOYO PIMOCHA 14 106 COSTA LOS RIOS QUEVEDO QUEVEDO 114 107 COSTA LOS RIOS QUEVEDO QUEVEDO 126 108 COSTA LOS RIOS QUEVEDO QUEVEDO 169 109 COSTA LOS RIOS QUEVEDO QUEVEDO 233 110 COSTA LOS RIOS VENTANAS QUINSALOMA 9 111 COSTA LOS RIOS VINCES VINCES 16 112 COSTA LOS RIOS VINCES VINCES 25 113 COSTA LOS RIOS VINCES VINCES 48 114 COSTA LOS RIOS VINCES VINCES 62 115 COSTA MANABI 24 DE MAYO SUCRE 36 116 COSTA MANABI BOLIVAR CALCETA 26 117 COSTA MANABI CHONE CHONE 61 118 COSTA MANABI CHONE CHONE 66 119 COSTA MANABI CHONE CHONE 101 120 COSTA MANABI CHONE CONVENTO 9 121 COSTA MANABI EL CARMEN EL CARMEN 5 122 COSTA MANABI EL CARMEN EL CARMEN 27 123 COSTA MANABI EL CARMEN EL CARMEN 48 124 COSTA MANABI EL CARMEN EL CARMEN 116 125 COSTA MANABI EL CARMEN EL CARMEN 133 126 COSTA MANABI JIPIJAPA JIPIJAPA 102 127 COSTA MANABI MANTA MANTA 162 128 COSTA MANABI MANTA MANTA 164 129 COSTA MANABI MANTA TARQUI 26 130 COSTA MANABI MONTECRISTI MONTECRISTI 9 131 COSTA MANABI MONTECRISTI MONTECRISTI 70 132 COSTA MANABI MONTECRISTI MONTECRISTI 79 133 COSTA MANABI PAJAN CASCOL 3 134 COSTA MANABI PAJAN CASCOL 16 135 COSTA MANABI PAJAN PAJAN 5 136 COSTA MANABI PAJAN PAJAN 31 137 COSTA MANABI PICHINCHA PICHINCHA/GERMUD 24 138 COSTA MANABI PICHINCHA PICHINCHA/GERMUD 43 139 COSTA MANABI PICHINCHA PICHINCHA/GERMUD 65 140 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO 12 DE MARZO 12 141 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO 12 DE MARZO 14 142 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO 12 DE MARZO 41 143 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO 12 DE MARZO 46 144 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO COLON 14 145 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO PORTOVIEJO 65 146 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO PORTOVIEJO 83 147 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO RIO CHICO 21 148 COSTA MANABI ROCAFUERTE ROCAFUERTE 2 149 COSTA MANABI SANTA ANA SANTA ANA 62 150 COSTA MANABI SUCRE CHARAPOTO 24

56 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

SAMPLE (SIERRA) 150 POLLING STATIONS

OBS STRATUM NAME OF NAME OF CANTON NAME OF PARISH POLLING PROV. STATION

1 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA CHIQUINTAD 10 2 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA EL VECINO 43 3 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA PACCHA 2 4 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA RAMIREZ DAVALOS 16 5 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAN JOAQUIN 9 6 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAN SEBASTIAN 22 7 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAYAUSI 5 8 SIERRA AZUAY GIRON GIRON 2 9 SIERRA AZUAY GUALACEO GUALACEO 43 10 SIERRA AZUAY NABON NABON 12 11 SIERRA AZUAY PAUTE GUARAINAC 3 12 SIERRA AZUAY SIGSIG SN.JOSE DE RARANGA 3 13 SIERRA BOLIVAR CALUMA CALUMA/SAN ANTONIO 12 14 SIERRA BOLIVAR CHIMBO SAN JOSE DE CHIMBO 4 15 SIERRA BOLIVAR ECHEANDIA ECHEANDIA 10 16 SIERRA BOLIVAR GUARANDA ANGEL POLIVIO CHAV 6 17 SIERRA BOLIVAR GUARANDA SAN LORENZO 7 18 SIERRA BOLIVAR LAS NAVES LAS NAVES 4 19 SIERRA CANAR AZOGUES AZOGUES 21 20 SIERRA CANAR AZOGUES AZOGUES 50 21 SIERRA CANAR AZOGUES JAVIER LOYOLA/CHUQ 3 22 SIERRA CANAR AZOGUES LUIS CORDERO 4 23 SIERRA CANAR AZOGUES RIVERA 4 24 SIERRA CANAR CANAR CANAR 25 25 SIERRA CANAR LA TRONCAL LA TRONCAL 52 26 SIERRA CARCHI BOLIVAR BOLIVAR 2 27 SIERRA CARCHI SAN PEDRO DE HUACA HUACA 2 28 SIERRA CARCHI TULCAN JULIO ANDRADE 7 29 SIERRA CARCHI TULCAN TULCAN 38 30 SIERRA CARCHI TULCAN TULCAN 56 31 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO ALAUSI ALAUSI 26 32 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO ALAUSI PUMALLACTA 2 33 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO ALAUSI TIXAN 7 34 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO COLTA COLUMBE 7 35 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO GUAMOTE PALMIRA 9 36 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO GUANO SAN ANDRES 1 37 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO RIOBAMBA LIZARZABURU 6 38 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO RIOBAMBA MALDONADO 46 39 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO RIOBAMBA VELASCO 12 40 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO RIOBAMBA VELASCO 57 41 SIERRA COTOPAXI LA MANA LA MANA 29 42 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA ELOY ALFARO/SAN FE 4 43 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA ELOY ALFARO/SAN FE 10 44 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA ELOY ALFARO/SAN FE 35 45 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA IGNACIO FLORES 11 46 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA SAN BUENAVENTURA 2 47 SIERRA COTOPAXI PUJILI ANGAMARCA 4 48 SIERRA COTOPAXI PUJILI ANGAMARCA 7 49 SIERRA COTOPAXI PUJILI PUJILI 6 50 SIERRA COTOPAXI PUJILI ZUMBAHUA 2 51 SIERRA COTOPAXI SALCEDO CUSUBAMBA 1 52 SIERRA COTOPAXI SALCEDO MULALILLO 2 53 SIERRA COTOPAXI SALCEDO SAN M. DE SALCEDO 16 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998 57

54 SIERRA COTOPAXI SALCEDO SAN M. DE SALCEDO 25 55 SIERRA COTOPAXI SIGCHOS SIGCHOS 12 56 SIERRA IMBABURA COTACACHI GARCIA MORENO/LLUR 7 57 SIERRA IMBABURA COTACACHI SAN FRANCISCO 11 58 SIERRA IMBABURA IBARRA CARANQUI 25 59 SIERRA IMBABURA IBARRA LA ESPERANZA 5 60 SIERRA IMBABURA IBARRA SAN ANTONIO 19 61 SIERRA IMBABURA IBARRA SAN FRANCISCO 28 62 SIERRA IMBABURA IBARRA SAN FRANCISCO 50 63 SIERRA IMBABURA OTAVALO GONZALEZ SUAREZ 10 64 SIERRA LOJA CATAMAYO ZAMBI 2 65 SIERRA LOJA CELICA SAN JUAN DE POZUL 6 66 SIERRA LOJA ESPINDOLA AMALUZA 5 67 SIERRA LOJA ESPINDOLA BELLAVISTA 2 68 SIERRA LOJA LOJA MALACATOS/VALLADOL 5 69 SIERRA LOJA LOJA SUCRE 85 70 SIERRA LOJA LOJA VALLE 15 71 SIERRA LOJA OLMEDO OLMEDO 1 72 SIERRA LOJA PALTAS CATACOCHA 36 73 SIERRA LOJA ZAPOTILLO ZAPOTILLO 3 74 SIERRA MORONA SANTIAGO HUAMBOYA CHIGUAZA 6 75 SIERRA MORONA SANTIAGO LOGRONO LOGRONO 6 76 SIERRA MORONA SANTIAGO SAN JUAN BOSCO SAN JUAN BOSCO 1 77 SIERRA NAPO ARCHIDONA ARCHIDONA 4 78 SIERRA NAPO ARCHIDONA COTUNDO 8 79 SIERRA PICHINCHA CAYAMBE ASCAZUBI 7 80 SIERRA PICHINCHA MEJIA ALOAG 11 81 SIERRA PICHINCHA MEJIA MACHACHI 4 82 SIERRA PICHINCHA MEJIA MACHACHI 13 83 SIERRA PICHINCHA MEJIA MACHACHI 25 84 SIERRA PICHINCHA PEDRO MONCAYO MALCHINGUI 1 85 SIERRA PICHINCHA PUERTO QUITO PUERTO QUITO 11 86 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO ALFARO 2 87 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO ALFARO 145 88 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO ALFARO 335 89 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO BENALCAZAR 47 90 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO BENALCAZAR 229 91 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 119 92 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHAUPICRUZ 166 93 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHAUPICRUZ 205 94 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHAUPICRUZ 285 95 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHAUPICRUZ 298 96 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHAUPICRUZ 364 97 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 41 98 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHILLOGALLO 179 99 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHILLOGALLO 191 100 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHILLOGALLO 222 58 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

101 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHILLOGALLO 283 102 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 103 103 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 120 104 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 359 105 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 379 106 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 390 107 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 432 108 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CUMBAYA 11 109 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO EL SALVADOR 10 110 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO EL SALVADOR 63 111 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO EL SALVADOR 83 112 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO LA FLORESTA 38 113 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO LA LIBERTAD 32 114 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO LA MAGDALENA 179 115 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO LA MAGDALENA 192 116 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO LA MERCED 4 117 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 8 118 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 3 119 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO PIFO 19 120 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO PINTAG 14 121 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 2 122 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO PUEMBO 13 123 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SAN ANTONIO 29 124 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SAN BLAS 120 125 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SAN MARCOS 31 126 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SAN SEBASTIAN 44 127 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SANTA PRISCA 123 128 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SANTA PRISCA 130 129 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SANTA PRISCA 143 130 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO TUMBACO 47 131 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 66 132 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO ZAMBIZA 1 133 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO ZAMBIZA 6 134 SIERRA PICHINCHA RUMINAHUI SAN RAFAEL 16 135 SIERRA PICHINCHA RUMINAHUI SANGOLQUI 34 136 SIERRA PICHINCHA S.DOMINGO DE LOS C BOMBOLI 10 137 SIERRA PICHINCHA S.DOMINGO DE LOS C S. DOMINGO DE LOS C 96 138 SIERRA PICHINCHA S.DOMINGO DE LOS C S.DOMINGO DE LOS C 230 139 SIERRA PICHINCHA S.DOMINGO DE LOS C S.DOMINGO DE LOS C 310 140 SIERRA SUCUMBIOS LAGO AGRIO NUEVA LOJA 10 141 SIERRA SUCUMBIOS SHUSHUFINDI SHUSHUFINDI CENTRA 10 142 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO HUACHI LORETO 111 143 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO LA MATRIZ 42 144 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO LA MATRIZ 63 145 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO LA MERCED 35 146 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO LA MERCED Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998 59

51 147 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO QUISAPINCHA 1 148 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA PILLARO SAN ANDRES 3 149 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA QUERO QUERO 1 150 SIERRA ZAMORA CHINCHIPE ZAMORA ZAMORA 11

In order to verify the results of vote-counting at polling stations, another sample of 80 polling stations throughout Ecuador was obtained: 40 from the sierra and 40 from the coast. The objective of this sample was to evaluate the counting of the votes contained in each ballot box and their transfer to the appropriate records.

The list of the 80 polling stations in the sample is provided below:

SAMPLE OF POLLING STATIONS (COAST)

OBS STRATUM NAME OF NAME OF CANTON NAME OF PARISH POLLING PROV. STATION

1 COSTA EL ORO ARENILLAS LA LIBERTAD 1 2 COSTA EL ORO MACHALA MACHALA 213 3 COSTA EL ORO SANTA ROSA SANTA ROSA 60 4 COSTA ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS BARTOLOME RUIZ 49 5 COSTA ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS CAMARONES 2 6 COSTA ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS 90 7 COSTA ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS ESMERALDAS 91 8 COSTA ESMERALDAS QUININDE ROSA ZARATE 34 9 COSTA ESMERALDAS RIO VERDE RIO VERDE 6 10 COSTA GUAYAS EL TRIUNFO EL TRIUNFO 47 11 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL AYACUCHO 6 12 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 168 13 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 175 14 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 219 15 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 661 16 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 868 17 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL FEBRES CORDERO 944 18 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL GARCIA MORENO 26 19 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL SUCRE 17 20 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 147 21 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 168 22 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 226 23 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 498 24 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL TARQUI 548 25 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL URDANETA 34 26 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 302 27 COSTA GUAYAS GUAYAQUIL XIMENA 466 28 COSTA GUAYAS MILAGRO MILAGRO 256 29 COSTA GUAYAS SALINAS SALINAS 12 30 COSTA LOS RIOS MOCACHE MOCACHE 14 31 COSTA LOS RIOS PUEBLO VIEJO PUEBLO VIEJO 6 32 COSTA LOS RIOS QUEVEDO QUEVEDO 11 33 COSTA LOS RIOS QUEVEDO QUEVEDO 224 34 COSTA LOS RIOS URDANETA RICAURTE 7 35 COSTA LOS RIOS VINCES ANTONIO SOTOMAYOR 1 36 COSTA MANABI JIPIJAPA JIPIJAPA 7 37 COSTA MANABI MONTECRISTI JARAMIJO 11 38 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO ANDRES DE VERA 7 39 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO COLON 1 60 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

40 COSTA MANABI PORTOVIEJO SAN PLACIDO 14

SAMPLE OF POLLING STATIONS (SIERRA)

OBS STRATUM NAME OF NAME OF CANTON NAME OF PARISH POLLING PROV. STATION

1 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAGRARIO 32 2 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAN BLAS 29 3 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAN BLAS 73 4 SIERRA AZUAY CUENCA SAN SEBASTIAN 61 5 SIERRA BOLIVAR GUARANDA ANGEL POLIVIO CHAV 8 6 SIERRA CANAR CANAR CHOROCOPTE 1 7 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO CHUNCHI CHUNCHI 14 8 SIERRA CHIMBORAZO COLTA SICALPA 12 9 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA LA MATRIZ 39 10 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA TANICUCHI 9 11 SIERRA COTOPAXI LATACUNGA TOACAZO 10 12 SIERRA IMBABURA COTACACHI SAGRARIO 9 13 SIERRA IMBABURA IBARRA SAGRARIO 74 14 SIERRA IMBABURA URCUQUI SAN BLAS 2 15 SIERRA LOJA CATAMAYO CATAMAYO 33 16 SIERRA LOJA CHAGUARPAMBA CHAGUARPAMBA 5 17 SIERRA LOJA GONZANAMA GONZANAMA 1 18 SIERRA LOJA LOJA EL SAGRARIO 1 19 SIERRA LOJA LOJA SUCRE 33 20 SIERRA MOR.SANTIAGO MORONA GENERAL PROANO 2 21 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO ALFARO 334 22 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO BENALCAZAR 227 23 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHAUPICRUZ 328 24 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHILLOGALLO 22 25 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO CHILLOGALLO 118 26 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 286 27 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO COTOCOLLAO 386 28 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO 4 29 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO LA MAGDALENA 29 30 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO POMASQUI 20 31 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SAN ROQUE 30 32 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SANTA PRISCA 78 33 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO SANTA PRISCA 179 34 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO VILLA FLORA 3 35 SIERRA PICHINCHA QUITO VILLA FLORA 47 36 SIERRA PICHINCHA S.DOMINGO DE RIO VERDE 20 37 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO AUGUSTO N MARTINEZ 15 38 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA AMBATO SANTA ROSA 25 39 SIERRA TUNGURAHUA TISALEO TISALEO 6 40 SIERRA ZAMORA CHINCH. ZAMORA CUMBARATZA 2

Results and evaluation

Based on an analysis of the vote-counting records from the 300 polling stations that comprised the first sample, the following reading can be obtained from the results, based on a confidence coefficient of 95 percent.

Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998 61

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Confidence Coefficient: 95 percent SIERRA

Lower Upper Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 64.9 62.1 67.7 2.8 NOBOA 35.1 32.3 37.9 2.8 Blank 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.2 Null 12.9 11.9 13.9 1.0 Abstention 28.9 26.7 31.1 2.2

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Confidence Coefficient: 95 percent COAST

Lower Upper Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 63.3 61.5 65.1 1.8 NOBOA 36.7 34.9 38.5 1.8 Blank 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.2 Null 8.2 7.7 8.7 0.5 Abstention 32.4 31.0 33.8 1.4

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Confidence Coefficient: 95 percent SIERRA+COAST

Lower Upper Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 51.0 49.2 52.8 1.8 NOBOA 49.0 47.2 50.8 1.8 Blank 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.1 Null 10.6 10.0 11.2 0.6 Abstention 30.6 29.2 32.0 1.4

For the purpose of comparison with the percentages included in the official national results, the data from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is presented below:

MAHUAD 51.2 percent NOBOA 48.8 percent BLANK 1.0 percent NULL 10.6 percent 62 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

ABSTENTION 29.9 percent

As is demonstrated, the results obtained from the statistical analysis are virtually the same. It should be noted that when viewed in very strict terms, the percentages of votes obtained by each candidate is the same, since, when the margin of error is taken into account, the range for one overlaps with the range for the other candidate. However, using a slightly lower confidence coefficient, a distinction can be made between the respective ranges. In addition, as indicated later on, the values of the projections are virtually the same.

The results of the analysis of vote-counting and the pertinent records are presented below:

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Confidence Coefficient: 99.0 percent SIERRA+COAST – VOTE COUNTING

Lower Upper Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 52.6 48.7 56.5 3.9 NOBOA 47.5 43.6 51.4 3.9 Blank 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 Null 9.5 7.8 11.2 1.7 Abstention 28.5 26.5 30.5 2.0

Percentage of Votes and Confidence Limits Confidence Coefficient: 99.0 percent SIERRA+COAST – VOTES ENTERED IN THE RECORDS

Lower Upper Percentage Limit Limit Error

MAHUAD 52.6 48.7 56.5 3.9 NOBOA 47.4 43.5 51.3 3.9 Blank 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 Null 9.8 8.0 11.6 1.8 Abstention 28.5 26.5 30.5 2.0

The tables submitted recently provide confirmation that the results of the projections submitted based on the vote counts and the results shown in the records are virtually identical. Once again, the two sets of results show the same trends as the official results.

It is important to point out that since this sample is smaller than the first, the analysis also allows for less precision. However, it must be emphasized that there is almost no difference between the results of the count and the respective records.

Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998 63

In cases where the vote counts show the existence of errors in the records or the official vote count, the analysis indicated that the errors offset each other, since they were alternately favorable and unfavorable, indiscriminately, to the two candidates.

For these reasons, it can be stated that from a statistical point of view, there is no basis for the claim that there was deliberate alteration of the official results.

Swearing in of the new president

With the swearing in of the new president of Ecuador, Dr. Jamil Mahuad, on August 10, 1998, the electoral process ended and thus the activities of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission.

Conclusions

The EOM/EC considers it useful to provide the following conclusions related to the second electoral round on July 12, 1998:

1. During the second round of the elections, the people went to the polls in an atmosphere of calm. Polling stations were, for the most part, set up within the scheduled time for opening, and voting took place in a quick and orderly fashion, as did vote-counting at the polling stations. The fact that voters were already familiar with the location of their polling stations and that voting involved a choice between two candidates on a binomial ballot certainly helped this process.

2. Based on the observations of the Mission, emphasis should be placed on the excellent organization of the electoral records by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and by the provincial electoral tribunals (TPEs), in addition to the indispensable role played by the armed forces in transporting and distributing electoral material.

3. In most of the provinces observed, there was a low level of absenteeism on the part of persons selected to set up polling stations. However, at many observed polling stations, there were no representatives of political parties to oversee the electoral activities.

4. At some of the observed electoral facilities, there was not enough space to guarantee voting secrecy. In spite of this, there were no incidents noted of persons taking advantage of this situation to influence or manipulate voters.

5. At the polling stations observed, the names of a considerable number of citizens did not appear on the voter registration list, and these persons were given a certificate attesting to the fact that they had showed up to vote.

6. In the Las Gaviotas area, the presidential elections did not take place because a decision was being awaited from the national authorities regarding the controversy related to the provincial jurisdiction of the area (Imbabura or Esmeraldas). The 64 Second Electoral Round: July 12, 1998

citizens of that area were given the appropriate voting certification.

7. Before and after the elections, complaints pertaining to fraud were received from candidate Alvaro Noboa (PRE). The Mission informed the TSE of these complaints and kept the complaining party apprised at all times of the actions taken and the results obtained. The “quick count” of records and “parallel tabulation” of results, conducted by means of statistical sampling after the elections, undoubtedly helped confirm the validity of the official electoral results.

8. The Mission noted and publicly expressed regret over the acts of violence that occurred in the days following the elections during the vote-counting at various provincial tribunals, primarily in Guayaquil and Pichincha, and called on all those involved in the electoral process and on citizens in general to help create a climate of peace and tranquility in which the elections could take place, and to use the constitutional and legal channels available.

9. In view of the foregoing, it can be concluded that the elections were honest and transparent and demonstrated once more the great civic and democratic spirit of the citizens of Ecuador.

CHAPTER VI Financial Report

CHAPTER VII

Recommendations

Once more, we would like to express our sincere appreciation for the work done and efforts made by the electoral authorities of Ecuador, its armed forces, and national police in the organization of the most recent elections. We have repeatedly mentioned the high level of civic commitment displayed by the people in general.

A number of suggestions or recommendations resulting from observation of the electoral process in Ecuador, which are based to a large extent on the experiences of the EOM/EC acquired in previous and similar observation activities in other countries in the Hemisphere, are provided below. Undoubtedly, these experiences can be useful in making the electoral system and the organization of future elections in Ecuador as efficient as possible.

· It is essential to train polling station members regarding the way in which each and every phase of the process should be conducted: opening, voting, and in particular, vote- counting. This training should also include guidelines for proper relationships with representatives of political parties, based on knowledge of the authority and rights extended to these persons during elections by the Electoral Law and its Implementing Regulations.

· Also, campaigns providing information on voting mechanisms should be considerably increased, so that the broadest possible cross-section of the electorate is familiar with them. Adequate knowledge on the voting process is an indispensable requirement for the free exercise of the right to vote. Moreover, increased training of the electorate will probably have a favorable impact on increasing the number of valid votes.

· It is advisable to redesign voting ballots and electoral records. The large size of these ballots demonstrated, in a number of cases, their impractical nature and led to a number of minor problems. It would be useful to redesign voting records, possibly using different colors for each. Above all, the information on each of these records should be simplified, in order to avoid confusion. During the electoral observation, a large number of records were not properly completed.

· The EOM/EC received many complaints from political parties and other groups regarding the absence of regulation of electoral expenses and campaign financing. The drafting of regulations in this area would be useful.

· Adequate resources and space at polling stations should be provided in order to guarantee voting secrecy.

72 Recommendations

· The electoral authorities, particularly the TPEs, should review the lists of citizens not appearing on voter registration lists who were unable to vote and were issued a certificate of attendance. They should then make sure that it is possible to include these citizens on the list. Furthermore, this would be a good starting point for the review of the voter registration list.

· It is recommended that members of polling stations vote at the same polling station assigned to them and where they are providing their services. The fact that one or more of the members of a polling station sometimes had to go to distant locations to cast their vote had a negative impact on their important functions during the elections.

· One single ballot box should be used in the different elections, without any distinction being made between men and women, during both the second and first rounds.

· The composition of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal should be reevaluated. Since its officials are called upon to act as impartial electoral judges, the current requirement for their appointment should be reviewed, namely that their names must appear on one of the lists of the parties that obtained the most votes in national multi-candidate elections.

· As an institution, the civil registry should be modernized. It is an indispensable link in guaranteeing the issuance, within the proper time frame and in the proper form, of the documentation necessary to vote. Moreover, greater efficiency of this entity and improved communication with the electoral authorities will help update the information needed to screen the voter registration list.

· An evaluation should be done of the procedure in which the identification cards of polling station members are held by the armed forces in order to ensure that these persons remain on the premises of the polling station throughout the voting and vote-counting process. This enforcement mechanism could be eliminated, thereby fostering a heightened level of civic awareness and responsibility.

· The internal boundary dispute around the Las Golondrinas area should be resolved in order to make it possible for the people of that zone to vote.

· It would be useful to provide transportation in the future for persons living in areas that are affected by adverse climate conditions, in order to make voting possible for those persons in remote areas and those who have difficulty getting to polling stations to vote.

CHAPTER VIII Appendices

1. Documents (letters, agreements)

2. Communiqués

3. Press clippings

4. Forms used during electoral observation

5. List of Observers

APPENDIX 1

APPENDIX 2

APPENDIX 3

APPENDIX 4

APPENDIX 5