Lecture Sunday 2019-09-22 Monday 2019-09-23 Room

Time 13:00 15:00 16:30 19:00 09:00 11:00 11:30 12:30 13:45 15:00 17:00 19:00

Foyer Coffee Breaks 10:30 - 11:00, 16:30 - 17:00

KN 1: Paulinum Opening M. Petrova PD Gossen PD PD Audimax Core Con- Award / Central DIW ference Thünen L. Banks Albertina WS WS WS Vortrags- Mentoring Mentoring Econ. saal for Women for Women Consulting Albertina WS Fürsten- DFG zimmer

HS 9

HS 13 OM: A01 OM: B01

HS 14 OM: B02

Inv. Session: HS 15 Econ. Theory

HS 16 OM: A02 OM: B03

HS 17 OM: A03 OM: B04

HS 18 OM: A04 OM: B05

HS 19 OM: A05 OM: B06

HS 20

S 202 OM: A06 OM: B07

S 203 OM: A07 OM: B08

S 204 OM: A08 OM: B09

S 205 OM: A09 OM: B10

S 210 OM: A10 OM: B11

S 211 OM: A11 OM: B12

S 212 OM: A12 OM: B13

S 213 OM: A13 OM: B14

S 214 OM: A14 OM: B15

S 215 OM: A15 OM: B16

S 220 OM: A16 OM: B17

S 221 OM: A17 OM: B18

S 222 OM: A18 OM: B19

S 223 OM: A19 OM: B20

S 224 OM: A20 OM: B21

S 225 OM: A21 OM: B22

S 226 OM: A22 OM: B23

Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket S 227 Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar S 228 OM: A23 OM: B24 S 229 OM: A24 OM: B25 Reception Ring-Café Selten Award Restaurant Reception Felix Neues Rathaus

WS = Workshop KN = Keynote OM = Open Meeting PD = Panel Discussion Lecture Tuesday 2019-09-24 Wednesday 2019-09-25 Room

09:00 11:00 12:30 13:45 15:00 16:45 19:00 09:00 11:00 11:30 12:30 13:45 15:00 16:15

8:00 - 9:00 Info Event AvH / Breaks 10:30 - 11:00, 16:30 - 16:45 Coffee Break 10:30 - 11:00 Foyer

Paulinum

PD 18:15 PD KN 2: PD PD KN 3: PD Lokalorg. Stolper Closing Audimax ZBW D. Cantoni VfS IWH A. Szeidl ARGE HMS Award Albertina Vortrags- saal Albertina Fürsten- zimmer PD Side Pro- Session Econ- gramme HS 9 RatSWD watch (Schools) Side Pro- OM: C01 OM: D01 OM: E01 gramme HS 13 (Schools) Side Pro- OM: E02 gramme HS 14 (Schools) Inv. Inv. Side Pro- Session: Session: OM: D02 OM: E03 gramme HS 15 Intern. Health (Schools) Econ. Econ. OM: C02 OM: D03 OM: E04 OM: F01 HS 16

OM: C03 OM: D04 OM: E05 OM: F02 OM: G01 HS 17

OM: C04 OM: D05 OM: E06 OM: F03 OM: G02 HS 18

OM: C05 OM: D06 OM: E07 OM: F04 OM: G03 HS 19 Women's Net- HS 20 working OM: C06 OM: D07 OM: E08 OM: F05 S 202

OM: C07 OM: D08 OM: E09 OM: F06 S 203

OM: C08 OM: D09 OM: E10 OM: F07 OM: G04 S 204

OM: C09 OM: D10 OM: E11 OM: F08 S 205

OM: C10 OM: D11 OM: E12 OM: F09 S 210

OM: C11 OM: D12 OM: E13 OM: F10 S 211

OM: C12 OM: D13 OM: E14 OM: F11 S 212

OM: D14 OM: E15 S 213

OM: C13 OM: D15 OM: E16 S 214

OM: C14 OM: D16 OM: E17 OM: F12 OM: G05 S 215

OM: C15 OM: D17 OM: E18 OM: F13 OM: G06 S 220

OM: C16 OM: D18 OM: E19 OM: F14 OM: G07 S 221

OM: C17 OM: D19 OM: E20 OM: F15 OM: G08 S 222

OM: C18 OM: D20 OM: E21 S 223

OM: C19 OM: D21 OM: E22 OM: F16 OM: G09 S 224

OM: C20 OM: D22 OM: E23 OM: F17 OM: G10 S 225

OM: C21 OM: D23 OM: E24 OM: F18 OM: G11 S 226 Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket S 227 Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar OM: C22 OM: D24 OM: E25 S 228

OM: C23 OM: D25 OM: E26 S 229

Ring-Café

Restaurant Felix Recep- Neues tion Rathaus

Time = start of the event Brown Bag Panel Coffee Break 30 Years after the Fall of

Annual Conference 2019 the Berlin Wall: of the Democracy and Market Economy Verein für Socialpolitik e.V. in Leipzig September 22 - 25, 2019 Leipzig University

Scientific Programme Committee – Core Conference: (University of Munich)

Scientific Programme Committee – Open Meeting: DANIEL KRÄHMER (University of Bonn) CHAIRMAN

Axel Dreher (University of ) Ester Faia (University of Frankfurt) Christina Gathmann (University of Heidelberg) Peter Haan (DIW Berlin) Christoph Kucmicz (University of Graz) Johannes Münster (University of Cologne) Markus Reisinger (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) Melanie Schienle (Karlsruhe Institute for Technology) Karl Schmedders (University of Zurich) Nora Szech (Karlsruhe Institute for Technology) Christoph Trebesch (University of Kiel)

Local Organisation: GUNTHER SCHNABL (Leipzig University) VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

CONTENT

Words of Welcome Director of the Institute for Economic Policy, Leipzig University ...... 6 Chairwoman of the Verein für Socialpolitik ...... 7

Board Board of the Verein für Socialpolitik ...... 8

Topic ...... 9

General Information Directions ...... 10 Information on the Conference ...... 11

Venue Site Maps ...... 14 Floor Maps ...... 16

Programme of the Conference Sunday ...... 19 Monday ...... 24 Tuesday ...... 44 Wednesday ...... 75

Conference Subsidy Programme ...... 89

Exhibitors ...... 90

Corporate Members ...... 91

Sponsors and Supporters ...... 94

Acknowledgements ...... 95

Annual Conference 2020 ...... 96

5 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

WORDS OF WELCOME Welcome address of the head of the local organisation

30 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the annual conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik takes place in Leipzig, where the so-called Monday demonstrations accelerated the end of the eastern German centrally planned economy.

Leipzig is a perfect location for this event for three reasons. Firstly, Leipzig University stands out as one of oldest and most prestigious academic institutions in (founded in 1409). Secondly, the city of Leipzig has experienced a successful transformation process. Today, she flourishes with a dynamic economy and society, providing an outstanding quality of life to her citizens. Thirdly, the Faculty of and Management Science of Leipzig University has become an important spot for studies and research in economics, with special focus on environmental economics and economic policy. photo: Gunther Schnabl Besides featuring an outstanding academic program, the four-day conference will provide a platform for discussions on the transformation of the central and eastern European economies from central planning into market economies, which has come along with a shift from totalitarian states to democracies. Among others, the keynote speaker Maria Petrova from the New Economic School in Moscow will explore the role of information for the political economy in Russia. On the last day of the conference, the subject of environmental policy will be brought to attention in the context of our event for pupils and the subsequent panel discussion.

Taking stock, it has to be acknowledged that 30 years after the fall of the Berlin wall, the convergence process of the eastern part of Germany is far from being completed. The income level in eastern Germany is stuck far below the west, with no clear perspective of further catch up. With the difference in wealth being high as well, the failed convergence process is becoming increasingly linked to political polarization.

The panel organized by the Halle Institute for Economic Research on „Ost-West- Produktivitätslücke: Ursachen und Folgen“ will explore the economic policy options to boost economic activity in the eastern part of the country to ensure equal living conditions. The panel by the Institute of Economic Policy of Leipzig University in cooperation with the Hanns Martin Schleyer Foundation aims to analyze to what extend the strengthening of market forces would enhance the ability of the eastern part of Germany to catch up.

I hope that the four-day conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik in Leipzig will help to develop new thinking to reconstitute economic dynamics in all parts of Germany and to ensure social cohesion. For this purpose, our team – in particular Kathrin Mazny, Tim Sepp and Nils Sonnenberg – have done their very best to provide a pleasant environment for the academic discussions of the participants. I thank all sponsors for the generous support.

Gunther Schnabl Director of the Institute for Economic Policy, Leipzig University

6 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Welcome address of the chairwoman of the Verein für Socialpolitik

Welcome to the Annual Meeting 2019 of the VfS! Fitting with the location, the topic of the core conference is "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy". We are very pleased to welcome as keyno- te speakers Davide Cantoni from the LMU Munich, Maria Petrova from the New Economic School, and Adam Szeidl from the Central European University. The contributed paper sessions continue to enjoy great popularity. The papers presen- ted in the different sessions cover research in development economics, economic history, environmental economics, experimental economics, finance, foreign trade, gender economics, industrial economics, labor economics, macroeconomics, and much more. They thus reflect the diversity of research in economics, as well as the policy relevance of photo: Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln a lot of this research. As in the last years, at the last day of the conference we are happy to be joined by students from local high schools, who are interested in learning more about economics. As the chairwoman of the VfS, I put a special focus on addressing the underrepresentation of women in the economics profession. This underrepresentation has been discussed worldwide at the start of this year, initiated by the climate survey carried out by the American Economic Association. An increasing number of very good research studies start identifying the hurdles that women face in advancing in an academic career in economics. Understanding these hurdles, often caused by implicit biases, is crucial for eliminating them. The share of women among economics professors is particularly low in German speaking countries, making this issue very relevant for the VfS. The panel “Women in Econo- mics” on Tuesday reports on some findings from research and data collection efforts, and presents initiatives carried out by the VfS. My special thanks go to the local organizer Gunther Schnabl, the program coordinators Da- niel Krähmer and Monika Schnitzer, the numerous colleagues involved in the selection of papers, and to our office, led by Karolin Herrmann, who have all prepared this conference with untiring commitment and enthusiasm. I wish all of us a fruitful and engaging conference! Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln Goethe University of Frankfurt/Main

7 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

BOARD The Management Board of the Verein für Socialpolitik

NICOLA FUCHS-SCHÜNDELN (Goethe University of Frankfurt) Chairwoman

JÖRG ROCHOLL GEORG WEIZSÄCKER FRIEDRICH BREYER CHRISTINE ZULEHNER (ESMT Berlin) (Humboldt University of Berlin) (University of Konstanz) (University of Vienna) Vice Chairman Designated Chairman Treasurer Secretary

Klaus Adam, Christian Bayer, Bernhard Boockmann, Jeannette Brosig-Koch, Davide Cantoni, Kai Carstensen, Axel Dreher, Hartmut Egger, Peter Egger, Gabriel Felbermayr, Anke Gerber, Justus Haucap, Paul Heidhues, Jan-Otmar Hesse, Erik Hornung, Peter-J. Jost, Henning Klodt, Daniel Krähmer, Jan-Pieter Krahnen, Dorothea Kübler, Michael Peneder, Karen Pittel, Nadine Riedel, Bettina Rockenbach, Andreas Roider, Melanie Schienle, Ulf Schiller, André Schmidt, Klaus Schmidt, Gunther Schnabl, Monika Schnitzer, Urs Schweizer, Peter Spahn, C. Katharina Spieß, Alexandra Spitz-Oener, Karl W. Steininger, Gesine Stephan, Roland Strausz, Richard Sturn, Jens Südekum, Marcel Thum, Heinrich W. Ursprung, Achim Wambach, Alexander Westkamp, Joachim Winter, Stefan Wolter, Matthias Wrede

8 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

TOPIC September 22 – 25, 2019 / Leipzig University, Germany

In the 30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain, the former planned eco- nomies in East Germany and Eastern Europe have undergone extensive processes of chan- ge. In the new federal states, the economic structure has been fundamentally altered, but convergence with the old federal states is not complete. The economic catching-up pro- cess of the transition countries of Eastern Europe, some of which are now members of the European Union, is continuing. Where are East Germany and the transition countries today? How have democratic institutions and market-economy structures developed in the transition countries?

Three keynotes, given by Maria Petrova from the New Economic School in Moscow, Adam Szeidl from the Central European University in Budapest and Davide Cantoni from the photo: Jan A. Staiger LMU Munich, will shed light on developments in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and for comparison in China. A policy panel will discuss the current situation in the new Monika Schnitzer German states against the background of the transformation processes to date. Core Conference Organisation

9 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

GENERAL INFORMATION Directions to the Leipzig University Information

Address Universität Leipzig Augustusplatz 10 04109 Leipzig/ Germany

Public Transport From the main railway station: about 5 minutes walk via Nikolaistrasse or Goethe- strasse in the direction of the MDR tower. Tram lines 10, 11 or 16 to the south and 4, 7, 12 or 15 to the east with stop Augustus- platz

Car Via the A9 motorway: exit Großkugel onto the B6 or exit Leipzig West onto the B181, each in the direction of the city centre. Via the A 38 motorway: exit at Kreuz Rippachtal onto the B87 in the direction of the city centre. Via the A 14 motorway: exit Leipzig Mitte onto the B2 or exit Leipzig Nordost onto the B87, each in the direction of the city centre. Follow the inner city ring until Augustusplatz am Georgiring. Parking is available directly at Augustusplatz (underground car park) free of charge.

Train All conference sites are in walking distance from the main station. Due to a cooperation with the Deutsche Bahn, conference participants have the possibility to travel within Germany at a discounted fixed rate. To receive the dis- count, please book via the booking button on the following website www.leipzig.travel/de/convention/unser-service/#c8017.

Plane Leipzig/Halle Airport is about 30 minutes by car to the city center. There is a train connection between Leipzig/Halle Airport and the main railway station. Trains leave every half an hour, the journey takes about 15 minutes. From the main station, please use the route as described above. If there is no direct flight from your city to Leipzig, we recommend to fly to Berlin (approx. one hour train journey to Leipzig), Frankfurt/Main or Hanover (approx. three / three and a half hours train journey to Leipzig). For all three cities, there are trains frequently leaving from and to Leipzig.

10 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy" Information

General Information to the conference

Registration prior to the www.socialpolitik.org conference For further requests please contact the VfS office.

Tel.: +49 (0) 30 / 2045 9600 Fax: +49 (0) 30 / 2067 9237 E-Mail: [email protected]

Conference fees VfS member¹ 149,00 € VfS member (reduced fee)¹ 89,00 € ¹acquired VfS membership by 30 April 2019 Non-member (Externals) 375,00 € Student (Bachelor / Master)² 40,00 € ²study certificate to be sent to: [email protected] VfS new member³ 246,00 € VfS new member (reduced fee)³ 142,00 € ³new member = acquired membership after 30 April 2019 New members participating at the annual conference don't pay the extra membership fee to the VfS in 2019.

EconStor All conference contributions are available for download in PDF format at https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/200700 The contributions can also be requested directly from the authors.

Programme update Final conference schedule: https://express.converia.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=8453 Conference App: https://vfs2019.express.converia.de/

Registration Desk Registration is possible at the reception, which is located in the Neues Augusteum. Here you collect your name badge, the printed programme and other information. Opening Hours: Sunday: 12 pm - 4:30 pm (Bibliotheca Albertina) Monday: 8 am – 7 pm Tuesday: 8 am – 7 pm Wednesday: 8 am – 7 pm

Telephone +49 1520 839 636 6 for all inquiries and concerns during the opening hours

11 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft” Information

Internet At all conference venues attendees have access to eduroam. Besides, the University of Leipzig provides a wifi network for the conference participants, which you can access via the following login information. Network name: eduinfo Event name: VfS2019 Password: 2c21d-2019

Emergency numbers In case of emergency, please apply to the reception team or directly call emergency: Fire department and ambulance 112 Police 110

Lunch On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, lunch takes places within the DIW-Brown-Bag-Panel, the ZBW-Brown-Bag-Panel and the IWH-Brown-Bag-Panel in the Neues Augusteum. Coffee breaks take place in the Neues Augusteum, too.

Luggage Deposit Luggage deposit and retrieval is possible in room 004 (Neues Augusteum), but only during the opening hours and not overnight. We do not assume liablity for loss of valuables or for any damage.

Lost property office If you lose or find anything, during the opening hours our team at the registration desk is glad to help you. After the conference, please contact the office of the Institute for Economic Policy: [email protected].

Participant List Find the final participant list in the Converia C³ Conference Control Center. Please log-in with your user name and password.

12 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

VENUE Leipzig and its University

Leipzig Leipzig is considered one of the most dynamic cities in East Germany and Germany as a whole. Ever since, Leipzig has been noted for its trade, culture and openness. After being Venues granted city rights and market privileges around 1165, Leipzig quickly developed into an important trading center. Leipzig is also known for its historical letterpress printing, as well as for its rich musical tradition. Johann Sebastian Bach and Felix Mendelssohn Bartholdy lived in Leipzig. In 1989, the so-called Monday demonstrations gave a crucial impulse for the end of the German Democratic Republic and thereby for the German unification. Today, Leipzig is characterized by its lively and diverse cultural scene. It benefits both from a symbiosis of its rich cultural traditions and creative freedom. Conference Venue The University of Leipzig is the second-oldest university in Germany (founded in 1409) and has been the source of major scientific development with many world-renowned figures having taught or studied here. With 155 study programs, Leipzig University offers 28.000 students a broad variety of subjects. The Faculty of Economics and Business Administration has 1.880 students. The central venue of the 2019 Annual Meeting of the German Economic Association (Verein für Socialpolitik) is the Neues Augusteum at Augustusplatz 10. The building is facing the inner courtyard of the new campus with a monument paying homage to Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, one of Leipzig‘s famous students. The keynote speeches and panel sessions will take place in the Audimax and the adjoining Paulinum. Most invited sessions take place in the Seminargebäude at the other side of the courtyard. The Institute for Economic Policy at the University of Leipzig, directed by Gunther Schnabl, organizes the conference. The Institute for Economic Policy conducts research on internatio- nal financial markets and monetary policy. A special focus is laid on the impact of conventio- nal and unconventional monetary policies on growth and distribution.

13 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Site Map Venues

Berliner Straße

K.-Schumacher-Str.

e

ß

a

r

t

s

Emil-Fuchs-Straße r

e Hauptbahnhof

b

r

e

Nordstraße G Löhrstraße ring Tröndlin Brandenburger Str. Footpath Train Station Brühl to Neues Augusteum

Goerdelerring

Gr. Fl.-gasse Hainstraße

Katharinenstr. Reichsstraße Nikolaistr. Dittrich Georgiring Friedrich-Ebert-Straße Goethestraße Grimmaische Str.

r .

i r

n

t s

g s

t 1 2

ä t

i Augustus- s r

O.-Schill-Str. e

M platz

v

Petersstraße i

a n

r U t Roßplatz

i

n Schillerstr.

- Luther-Ring Johannapark

e

ß

a

auchnitz-Str. r

t

K.-T s

t Käthe-Kollwitz-Straße r Wächterstr. o

k

r LEGEND

3 a Beethovenstr. H 1 Seminargebäude & Hörsaalgebäude Karl-T 2 Neues Augusteum & Paulinum

auchnitz-Straße 3 Albertina

Albertina (Sunday only), Beethovenstraße 6. When entering the Albertina, the Fürstenzimmer and the Vortragssaal are on the raised ground floor to your left.

14 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Site Map

Way to Train Station (Hauptbahnhof) Venues

e

ß

a

r t

s Grimm aische Straße oethe

G

e

ß

a

r t

s

s t

ä t i

s

r

e

niv

U LEGEND 2 1 Neues Augusteum / Audimax Innenhof 2 Paulinum 3 Seminargebäude

3 4 Hörsaalgebäude / Campus-Bibliothek Transition to Hörsaalgebäude 1

Augustusplatz

4

City-Hochhaus Gewandhaus Leipzig

15 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Floor Map

Leipzig University

Neues Augusteum

Venues Entrance to the Neues Augusteum ground floor Audimax ground floor Foyer, registration, exhibition, coffee break, lunch ground floor Luggage deposit ground floor

Paulinum Entrance to the Paulinum over the Neues Augusteum ground floor

Seminargebäude S 202 second floor S 220 second floor S 203 second floor S 221 second floor S 204 second floor S 222 second floor S 205 second floor S 223 second floor S 210 second floor S 224 second floor S 211 second floor S 225 second floor S 212 second floor S 226 second floor S 213 second floor S 227 second floor S 214 second floor S 228 second floor S 215 second floor S 229 second floor

Hörsaalgebäude, access via the second floor of the Seminargebäude turning to down the hallway. HS 9 second floor HS 17 second floor HS 13 second floor HS 18 second floor HS 14 second floor HS 19 second floor HS 15 second floor HS 20 second floor HS 16 second floor

16 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Floor Map Venues

H220 HS19 HS20 HS18 from Seminargebäude

HS17

HS16 HS21

HS15 Second floor HS14 HS9

HS13

LEGEND Location Elevator Stairs

Neues Augusteum

Entrance from Neues Augusteum to Seminargebäude

Second floor

WC WC WC WC S202 S228 S226 S224 S222 S220 S214 S212 S210 S204 Way to Hörsaalgebäude

S229 S227 S225 S223 S221 S215 S213 S211 S205 S203 S201

LEGEND Elevator Stairs

17 Advertising

Wir fördern Ihre Wissenschaftskooperationen!

Mit unseren Forschungspreisen unterstützen wir Sie dabei, Top-Forscherinnen und -Forscher aus dem Ausland für bis zu ein Jahr an Ihr Institut in Deutschland zu holen. Nominieren Sie Ihren Wunsch-Kandidaten und profitieren Sie von den Vorteilen des Humboldt-Netzwerks.

Die Preise sind mit jeweils 60.000 Euro dotiert und richten sich an Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler, die ihr Fachgebiet nachhaltig geprägt haben und von denen auch in Zukunft Spitzenleistungen erwartet werden können.

Mehr Informationen zu unseren Förderprogrammen für alle Karrierestufen finden Sie hier: www.humboldt-foundation.de/web/programme-nach-zielgruppen.html

Exzellenz verbindet – be part of a worldwide network.

www.humboldt-foundation.de

AvH_18_02_Anzeige_Tagung_Socialpolitik_rz_1.indd 1 26.06.19 10:26 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

SUNDAY September 22, 2019

Time Event Language Room Details G=German on page E=English

13:00 - 16:30 Mentoring-Workshop for Women E Bibliotheca 20 Albertina Vortragssaal

16:30 - 18:30 Workshop: E Bibliotheca 21 Economic Consultancies: A Dialogue Albertina Vortragssaal

16:30 - 18:30 DFG-Workshop: Forschungsförde- G Bibliotheca 21 rung durch die DFG in den Albertina Wirtschaftswissenschaften Fürsten-

zimmer Sunday

19:00 - 22:00 Get-together auf Einladung der ZBW G Ring-Café 22 und Verleihung des Reinhard- Selten-Preises

19 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

13:00 - 16:30 WORKSHOP Bibliotheca Albertina (Language: English) Vortragssaal Beethovenstr. 6

MENTORING-WORKSHOP FÜR FRAUEN / Mentoring Workshop for Women "Fit for Science" The number of women in economics is still rather small. Lots of young female researchers are missing the necessary contact in their discipline that would enable them to assess the possibilities of pursuing a scientific career. They simply do not have access to an experienced fellow scientist who could help reduce any uncertainty or give concrete answers to specific questions about career or life plans. With the Mentoring Workshop we aim to give young female scientists a forum where they can receive information on working in academia, discuss topics and themes such as research strategy and life-work balance and get answers to any questions they may have. In addition there will be ample opportunity for networking and exchanging ideas and experiences. Target audience: Doctoral students, post-docs, and junior professors Workshop goal: to provide information on career possibilities in universities and in research, to increase professional and personal networks, and answer any queries.

Themes: • Go for It! Post-doc career paths

Sunday • Define Yourself! Research agendas and the publication process • Expose Yourself! Presentations and networking • Don’t Overstretch! Teaching and committee work • Enjoy Life! Work-life balance

Speakers: • Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Goethe University Frankfurt/Main) • Dorothea Kübler (WZB Berlin Social Science Center / TU Berlin) • Nadine Riedel (Ruhr University Bochum) • Katharina Spieß (DIW Berlin) • Nora Szech (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) • Christine Zulehner (University of Vienna)

Moderation: Dorothea Kübler (VfS Equal Opportunities Officer)

20 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

16:30 - 18:00 WORKSHOP Bibliotheca Albertina (Language: English) Vortragssaal Beethovenstr. 6

CAREER WORKSHOP "Economic Consultancies: A Dialogue" / Ökonomische Beratungen im Gespräch What opportunities are offered by the economic promotion in the non-university labor market? What is the field of activity of economic consultancy? The Verein für Socialpolitik supports young economists in their entry into the non-university job market and organises the work- shop "Economic Consultations: A Dialogue". On top of presentations by the participating consultancies, a Q&A session and optional informal meeting, there is even the possi- bility to apply for job talks, which are planned to take place on the day of the workshop. Representatives of the consultancies: • Christian Paul (TWS Partners AG) • Tobias Schmidt (QuantCo Deutschland GmbH) Moderation: Mathias Heinz (University of Cologne) Sunday

16:30 - 18:00 WORKSHOP Bibliotheca Albertina (Language: German) Fürstenzimmer Beethovenstr. 6

DFG-WORKSHOP Forschungsförderung durch die DFG in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften – Programme, Antragstellung und Erfahrungen / Research Funding by the DFG in Economics – Programmes, Applications and Experiences Wie schon in den vergangenen Jahren findet auch in diesem Jahr wieder ein Workshop zum Thema „Forschungsförderung durch die DFG in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften: Programme, Antragstellung und Erfahrungen“ statt. Praxisnah berichten die Referent/-innen über die verschiedenen Förderprogramme sowie die Hürden und Erfolgsfaktoren in den Antragsverfahren. Im Anschluss an die Vorträge können Fragen und Anregungen aus dem Auditorium in einer offenen Gesprächsrunde behandelt werden. Der Workshop ist Teil einer umfassenderen Strategie innerhalb des Vereins für Socialpolitik zur intensiven Auseinander- setzung mit Aspekten der Forschungsförderung in unseren Fachdisziplinen und richtet sich ausdrücklich nicht nur an den akade- mischen Nachwuchs, sondern an alle Vereinsmitglieder und Tagungsteilnehmer/innen. Referent/innen: • Christiane Joerk (DFG) • Miriam Beblo (Universität Hamburg) • Jan-Otmar Hesse (Universität Marburg)

21 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

19:00 - 21:00 GET-TOGETHER Ring-Café (Language: German) Roßplatz 8

GET-TOGETHER auf Einladung der ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft / Get-together on invitation of the ZBW Die ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft lädt Sie herzlich ein zum Get-together am 22. September 2019 von 19.00 Uhr bis 21.00 Uhr. Das Get-together findet im Ring-Café (Roßplatz 8) statt. Ansprache: Christian Breuer (ZBW) Während des Get-togethers der ZBW wird auch der Reinhard-Selten-Preis verliehen.

VERLEIHUNG DES REINHARD-SELTEN-PREISES durch Daniel Krähmer (Vorsitzender der Kommission zur wissenschaftlichen Vorbereitung der Offenen Tagung) Der Verein für Socialpolitik vergibt jährlich im Rahmen seiner Jahrestagung den mit 3.000 € dotierten Reinhard Selten-Preis (Young Author Best Paper Award) für Papiere, die sich insbesondere durch Originalität, Bedeutung der Fragestellung und saubere Metho- dik auszeichnen. Benannt ist der Preis nach Reinhard Selten, dem bisher einzigen deutschen Träger des von der Schwedischen Reichsbank in Erin- nerung an Alfred Nobel gestifteten Preises für Wirtschaftswissenschaften für seine Arbeiten im Bereich der Spieltheorie. Insbeson- dere entwickelte er das Konzept des teilspielperfekten sowie des trembling-hand-perfekten Gleichgewichts. Sunday Die Auswahl der Preisträger/innen obliegt der Kommission zur wissenschaftlichen Vorbereitung der Offenen Tagung unter Feder- führung des Kommissionsvorsitzenden. Über frühere Preisträger informieren Sie sich auf www.socialpolitik.org.

22 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Notizen/Notes:

23 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

MONDAY September 23, 2019

Time Event Language Room Details G=German on page E=English

09:00 - 17:00 Jobmarket Preparation Seminar E S 227 27

09:00 - 10:30 Open Meeting Block A & Invited Session E 27

09:30 - 10:30 Presse-Frühstück G P 901

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break Foyer

11:00 - 11:30 Opening and Welcome Address G / E Paulinum 34

11:30 - 12:30 Keynote I E Paulinum 34 Maria Petrova: “Information and Politi- cal Economy of Russia, 1999-2019”

12:30 - 13:45 Brown Bag Event DIW Berlin G Audimax 34

13:45 - 14:45 Panel der Kerntagung G Audimax 35 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – die Erfahrungen in den neuen Bundesländern“

15:00 - 16:30 Verleihung des Hermann-Heinrich- G Audimax 35 Gossen-Preises und Johann-Heinrich-v.-Thünen-Vorlesung Monday 16:30 - 17:00 Coffee Break Foyer

17:00 - 18:30 Panel of the Central Banks E Audimax 36 "The Role of Central Banks in the Pro- cess of Enlargement of the European Union"

17:00 - 18:30 Open Meeting Block B E 36

19:00 - 23:00 Reception on invitation of the Deutsche E Restaurant Felix 42 Bundesbank

24 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - Open Meeting Block A & Invited Session Room Page 10:30 A01 - A24

A01 Macroeconomics - Financial Markets HS 13 27

A02 Education Economics I HS 16 28

A03 Development Economics I HS 17 28

A04 Econometrics - Time Series HS 18 28

A05 Monetary Policy I HS 19 28

A06 Experimental Economics I S 202 29

A07 Labor Economics I S 203 29

A08 Political Economy - Institutions I S 204 29

A09 Public Economics I S 205 29

A10 Finance - Banking I S 210 30

A11 Political Economy - Inequality S 211 30

A12 Industrial Organisation - Regulation S 212 30

A13 Applied Macroeconometrics I S 213 30 Monday A14 International Economics - Exchange Rates S 214 31

A15 Environmental Economics I S 215 31

A16 Environmental Economics II S 220 31

A17 Applied Macroeconomics II S 221 31

A18 Taxation I S 222 32

A19 Labor Economics II S 223 32

A20 Consumption and Household Economics S 224 32

A21 Rational Expectations, Bounded Rationality and S 225 32 Robustness

A22 Migration S 226 33

A23 Political Economy - Elections I S 228 33

A24 Industrial Organisation S 229 33

Invited Session of the Committee on Economic Theory HS 15 33

25 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

17:00 - Open Meeting Block B Room Page 18:30 B01 - B25

B01 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and R&D I HS 13 36

B02 Law and Economics HS 14 36

B03 Family Economics I HS 16 37

B04 Development Economics II HS 17 37

B05 Experimental Economics II HS 18 37

B06 Macroeconomics - Labor Markets HS 19 37

B07 Econometrics - Forecasting I S 202 38

B08 Labor Economics III S 203 38

B09 Economic Theory - Mechanism Design S 204 38

B10 Public Economics - Pensions and Savings S 205 38

B11 International Finance Markets S 210 39

B12 Political Economy I S 211 39

B13 Industrial Organisation - Theory S 212 39

B14 International Finance S 213 39 Monday B15 Environmental Economics III S 214 40

B16 Public Economics II S 215 40

B17 Education Economics II S 220 40

B18 Monetary Policy II S 221 40

B19 Health Economics I S 222 41

B20 Labor Economics IV S 223 41

B21 Experimental Economics III S 224 41

B22 Monetary Policy III S 225 41

B23 Development Economics III S 226 42

B24 Economic History I S 228 42

B25 Industrial Organisation II S 229 42

26 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 17:00 JOBMARKET PREPARATION SEMINAR S 227 (Language: English)

Jobmarket Preparation Seminar Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame), together with Paul Heidhues (Düsseldorf University, DICE), and Daniel Sturm (London School of Economics), offer a two-day job market preparation seminar for eight PhD student who had applied for the participation in advance (application deadline: July 31, 2019). Applicants are members of the VfS and had to prepare a potential job market paper for the seminar. Content: • Presentation on the international job market • Three-minute spiel on the job market paper • Mock interviews • Presentation of the job market paper Goals: • Raising awareness with PhD students that the presentation and proper communication of research is ever more important for a career in academia. • Teaching of the often informal rules and scripts that govern the international and domestic academic job market. • Feedback from experienced senior researchers. • PhD students need to learn to prove themselves outside the comfort zone of their own departments. Target Group: • Advanced PhD students who are thinking about going on the international job market. • Advanced PhD students with a more German focus who want to improve their communication and presentation skills.

Moderation: • Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame) • Paul Heidhues (Düsseldorf University, DICE)

• Daniel Sturm (London School of Economics) Monday

Monday, OPEN MEETING: Block A Room 9/23/2019 (Language: English)

09:00 - 10:30 A01 Macroeconomics - Financial Markets HS 13

Chair: Paul Berenberg-Gossler (Hertie School of Governance, Berlin) 1. Frank Calisse (Universität ) The impact of long-range dependence in the capital stock on interest rate and wealth distribution 2. Susanne Wellmann (Universität Tübingen); Gernot Müller (Universität Tübingen); Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Finance); Johannes Pfeifer (Universität Köln) Sovereign spread shocks 3. Paul Berenberg-Gossler (Hertie School of Governance) International Financial Integration and Output Co-Movement

27 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 A02 Education Economics I HS 16

Chair: Felix Weinhardt (DIW Berlin) 1. Katharina Werner (ifo Munich); Ludger Wößmann (ifo Munich); Philipp Lergetporer (ifo Munich); Elisabeth Grewenig (ifo Munich) Do Incentives Increase Belief Accuracy in Large-Scale Surveys? Experimental Evidence 2. Dorothea Kübler (WZB Berlin); Julien Grenet (Paris School of Economics); Yinghua He (Rice University) Early offers in university admissions 3. Felix Weinhardt (DIW Berlin); Frauke Peter (DIW Berlin); C. Katharina Spieß (DIW Berlin); Jan Berkes (DIW Berlin) Informaiton Provision and Postgraduate Studies Organised Session

09:00 - 10:30 A03 Development Economics I HS 17

Chair: Michael Berlemann (Helmut-Schmidt-Universität) 1. Helke Seitz (DIW Berlin); Lukas Menkhoff (DIW Berlin); Antonia Grohmann (DIW Berlin) The Effect of Personalized Feedback on Small Enterprises’ Finances in Uganda 2. Andreas Irmen (University of Luxembourg) Automation, Factor Shares, and Growth in the Era of Population Aging 3. Michael Berlemann (Helmut-Schmidt-University); Daniela Wenzel (Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg) Precipitation and Economic Growth

09:00 - 10:30 A04 Econometrics - Time Series HS 18

Chair: Dominik Bertsche (Universität Konstanz) 1. Tobias Hartl (University of Regensburg); Rolf Tschernig (University of Regensburg); Enzo Weber (University of Regensburg) Monday Fractional trends in unobserved components models 2. Bernd Süssmuth (Universität Leipzig) Bitcoin and Web Search Query Dynamics: Is the price driving the hype or is the hype driving the price? 3. Dominik Bertsche (Universität Konstanz); Ralf Brüggemann (Universität Konstanz); Christian Kascha Directed Graph and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models

09:00 - 10:30 A05 Monetary Policy I HS 19

Chair: Henning Weber () 1. Gregor Boehl (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt); Felix Strobel (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt) A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing 2. Oliver Holtemöller (Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Alexander Kriwoluzky (Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin); Boreum Kwak (Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH) Identifying Monetary Policy and Central Bank Information Shocks Using High-frequency Exchange Rates 3. Klaus Adam (University of Oxford, Nuffield College and CEPR); Henning Weber (Deutsche Bundesbank) Price Trends over the Product Life Cycle and the Optimal Inflation Target

28 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 A06 Experimental Economics I S 202

Chair: Peter Werner (Maastricht University) 1. Wladislaw Mill (University of Mannheim); Alexander Vostroknutov (Maastricht University); Leonard Hoeft (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) Normative Perception of Power Abuse 2. Christoph March (Technische Universität München); Marco Sahm (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg) The Perks of Being in the Smaller Team: Incentives in Overlapping Contests 3. Peter Werner (Maastricht University) Wage negotiations and strategic responses to transparency

09:00 - 10:30 A07 Labor Economics I S 203

Chair: Silke Anger (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) 1. Rebecca Schrader (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Regina T. Riphahn (Friedrich-Alexander Universi- tät Erlangen-Nürnberg) Labor market effects of early retirement reforms 2. Alexandra Spitz-Oener (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin) Refugee-Specific Government Aid and Child Refugees’ Economic Success Later in Life 3. Silke Anger (IAB); Malte Sandner (Institute for Employment Research); Jacopo Bassetto (Institute for Employment Research) Human capital transferability and migrants’ labor market integration

09:00 - 10:30 A08 Political Economy - Institutions I S 204 Monday Chair: Soeren Schwuchow (Brandenburg University of Technology) 1. Rainer Kotschy (LMU München); Uwe Sunde (LMU München) Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy 2. Tommy Krieger (Universität Konstanz) Democracy and institutional quality: Theory and Evidence 3. Soeren Schwuchow (Brandenburg University of Technology); George Tridimas (Ulster University) Taking sides: The Political Economy of Solon’s Law for Civil Wars

09:00 - 10:30 A09 Public Economics I S 205

Chair: Mathias Dolls (ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) 1. Matthias Wieschemeyer (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Bernd Süssmuth (Universität Leipzig) Progressive tax-like effects of inflation: fact or myth? 2. Mathias Dolls (ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.); Carla Krolage (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) The Effects of Early Retirement Incentives on Retirement Decisions

29 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 A10 Finance - Banking I S 210

Chair: Toni Ahnert (Bank of Canada) 1. Michael Kogler (Universität St. Gallen) Profit Taxation and Bank Risk Taking 2. Rainer Frey (Deutsche Bundesbank); Mark Andreas Weth (DIW Berlin) Banks’ holdings of risky sovereign bonds in the absence of the nexus 3. Toni Ahnert (Bank of Canada and CEPR); James Chapman (Bank of Canada); Carolyn Wilkins (Bank of Canada) Should Bank Capital Regulation Be Risk Sensitive?

09:00 - 10:30 A11 Political Economy - Inequality S 211

Chair: Ingrid Ott (Karlsruher Institut für Technologie) 1. Volker Meier (ifo-Institut); Matthew Rablen (University of Sheffield) Political Economy of Redistribution between Traditional and Modern Families 2. Carsten Schröder (DIW Berlin); Charlotte Bartels (DIW); Martin Kroh (DIW / Uni Bielefeld); Markus Grabka (diw berlin); Rainer Siegers (DIW Berlin) A Novel Sampling Strategy for Surveying High-Worth Individuals 3. Susanne Soretz (Universität Greifswald); Ingrid Ott (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) Public expenditure, policy coordination, and regional inequality

09:00 - 10:30 A12 Industrial Organisation - Regulation S 212

Chair: Lisa Bruttel (Uni Potsdam) 1. Valentin Lindlacher (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) Market defnition for broadband internet in Austria Monday 2. Anja Rösner (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics DICE); Justus Haucap (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics DICE); Ulrich Heimeshoff (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics DICE) Consumer Protection in Digital Ages 3. Max Andres (Uni Potsdam); Lisa Bruttel (Uni Potsdam); Jana Friedrichsen (HU Berlin & DIW) The effect of a leniency rule on cartel formation and stability: experiments with open communication

09:00 - 10:30 A13 Applied Macroeconometrics I S 213

Chair: Stephanie Ettmeier (DIW Berlin) 1. Josefine Quast (Friedrich - Schiller - Universität - Jena); Maik H. Wolters (University of Jena, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, IMFS at Goethe University Frankfurt) Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter 2. Malte Rieth (DIW Berlin); Thore Schlaak (DIW Berlin); Maximilian Podstawski (Bundesministerium der Finanzen) Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity 3. Stephanie Ettmeier (DIW Berlin); Alexander Kriwoluzky (DIW Berlin) Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation

30 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 A14 International Economics - Exchange Rates S 214

Chair: Frank Westermann (Universität Osnabrück) 1. Malte Rieth (DIW Berlin); Lukas Menkhoff (Humboldt-Universität Berlin, DIW Berlin); obiasT Stöhr (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, DIW Berlin) The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets 2. Ingmar Rövekamp (TU Dresden) US Monetary Policy and the Stability of Currency Pegs 3. Frank Westermann (Uni Osnabrück); Michael Melvin (UC San Diego) Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors

09:00 - 10:30 A15 Environmental Economics I S 215

Chair: Mark Andor (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) 1. Gerhard Kussel (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Manuel Frondel (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Colin Vance (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Stephan Sommer (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research) Local Cost for Global Benefit: The Case of Wind Turbines 2. Thiess Buettner (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg FAU); Boryana Madzharova (FAU) Subsidies for Energy Efficient Appliances: Program Design and Consumer Response 3. Mark Andor (RWI - Leibniz Institut for Economic Research); Andreas Gerster (University of Mannheim); Jörg Peters (RWI); Christoph Schmidt (RWI) Information Provision for Residential Energy Conservation

09:00 - 10:30 A16 Environmental Economics II S 220 Monday

Chair: Andreas Ziegler (Universität Kassel) 1. Julia Rechlitz (DIW Berlin); Luis Sarmiento (DIW Berlin); Aleksandar Zaklan (DIW Berlin) Ozone Pollution, Health and Well-Being 2. Max Franks (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Kai Lessmann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Tax competition with asymmetric endowments in fossil resources 3. Andreas Ziegler (University of Kassel) New Ecological Paradigm meets behavioral economics: On the relationship between environmental values and economic preferences

09:00 - 10:30 A17 Applied Macroeconomics II S 221

Chair: Jonas Dovern (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) 1. Zeno Enders (Heidelberg University); Franziska Hünnekes (LMU); Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen) Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms 2. Lena Dräger (Leibniz University Hannover); Giang Nghiem (Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main) Are Consumers’ Spending Decisions in Line With an Euler Equation? 3. Jonas Dovern (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Klaus Wohlrabe (ifo Institut) How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey in Germany Organised Session

31 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 A18 Taxation I S 222

Chair: Tobias Hauck (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München) 1. Coletta Frenzel Baudisch (Justus Liebig Universität Gießen); Carolin Dresselhaus (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen) Impact of the German Real Estate Transfer Tax on the Commercial Real Estate Market 2. Nadine Riedel (Ruhr Universität Bochum); Kristina Strohmaier (Universität Tübingen); Collen Lediga (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) Spatial Tax Enforcement Spillovers: Evidence from South Africa 3. Tobias Hauck (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München) Tax Returns and Multiple Modes of Evasion

09:00 - 10:30 A19 Labor Economics II S 223

Chair: Max Kunaschk (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) 1. Teresa Backhaus (WZB Berlin); Kai-Uwe Müller (DIW Berlin) Does the German benefit low income households? 2. Laszlo Goerke (IAAEU & Trier University); Michael Neugart (Technische Universität Darmstadt) Thorstein Veblen, and George Stigler (probably) never met: Social Preferences, Monopsony, and Govern- ment Intervention 3. Max Kunaschk (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) Minimum Wages, Employment and Prices - A Case Study of the Hairdressing Industry

09:00 - 10:30 A20 Consumption and Household Economics S 224

Chair: Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Deutsche Bundesbank) 1. Martin Beznoska (Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V.) Monday Do Couples Pool Their Income? 2. Tobias Schmidt (Deutsche Bundesbank); Julia Le Blanc (Deutsche Bundesbank) The joint distribution of income, wealth and consumption in Germany 3. Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main); Johannes Wohlfart (Goethe University Frankfurt am Main) How Do Consumers Adapt to a New Environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German Reunification.

09:00 - 10:30 A21 Rational Expectations, Bounded Rationality S 225 and Robustness

Chair: Markus Knell (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) 1. Joep Lustenhouwer (University of Bamberg); Tim Hagenhoff (University of Bamberg) The Rationality Bias 2. Emanuel Gasteiger (Technische Universität Wien); William Branch (University of California, Irvine) Endogenously (Non-)Ricardian Beliefs 3. Markus Knell (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) How Peer Groups Influence Economic Perceptions

32 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 A22 Migration S 226

Chair: Panu Poutvaara (ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universitaet Muenchen e.V.) 1. Elke Jahn (IAB und Universität Bayreuth); Michael Rosholm (Aarhus University) Does temporary agency employment pave the way to better jobs for refugees? 2. Guido Neidhöfer (ZEW Mannheim); C. Katharina Spieß (DIW Berlin); Ludovica Gambaro (DIW Berlin) Early childhood care services and refugee children: Differences in attendance and consequences for integration 3. Cevat Aksoy (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Panu Poutvaara (ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universitaet Muenchen e.V.) Refugees’ Self-selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?

09:00 - 10:30 A23 Political Economy - Elections I S 228

Chair: Jan-Egbert Sturm (ETH Zürich) 1. Kim Leonie Kellermann (WWU Münster); Simon Winter (WWU Münster) A New East-West Divide? – Immigration and Anti-Immigrant Voting in the 2017 German Parliamentary Election 2. Lukas Tomberg (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung); Karen Smith Stegen (Jacobs University Bremen); Colin Vance (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) "The mother of all political problems''? On asylum seekers and elections in Germany 3. Jan-Egbert Sturm (ETH Zürich); Dennis Quinn (Georgetown University); Jakob de Haan (University of Groningen) Old Sour Wine in New Opaque Bottles

09:00 - 10:30 A24 Industrial Organisation I S 229 Monday

Chair: Heiko Karle (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH) 1. Frank Schlütter (DICE, Universität Düsseldorf); Matthias Hunold (DICE, Universität Düsseldorf) Vertical Financial Interest and Corporate Influence 2. Maria Nieswand (Loughborough University); Oleg Badunenko (University of Portsmouth); Astrid Cullmann (Technische Universitaet Berlin); Subal Kumbhakar (Binghampton University) The effect of restructuring electricity distribution systems on firms’ persistent and transient efficiency. The case of Germany 3. Heiko Karle (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH) Excessive Targeting

09:00 - 10:30 Invited Session of the Committee on Economic Theory HS 15

Chair: Roland Strausz (Humboldt Universität Berlin) 1. Nora Szech (Department of Economics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Berlin Social Science Center WZB); Marta Serra-Garcia (Rady School of Management, UC San Diego) The (In)Elasticity of Moral Ignorance 2. Fabian Herweg (University of Bayreuth, CESifo, and CEPR); Daniel Müller (University of Würzburg) Regret Theory and Salience Theory: Total Strangers, Distant Relatives or Close Cousins? 3. Felix Bierbrauer (CMR - Center for Macroeconomic Research, University of Cologne); Aleh Tsyvinski (Yale University); Nico- las Werquin (Toulouse School of Economics) Taxes and Turnout Invited Session

33 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - 11:30 ERÖFFNUNG / OPENING Paulinum (Language: German/English)

Eröffnung und Begrüßung / Opening and Welcome Address Grußworte zur Eröffnung • Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln Vorsitzende des Vereins für Socialpolitik / Chairwoman of the Verein für Socialpolitik (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main; Goethe University of Frankfurt/Main)

• Gunther Schnabl Leiter der Lokalorganisation / Head of the local organisation (Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik der Universität Leipzig; Institute for Economic Policy /Leipzig University)

11:30 - 12:30 KEYNOTE LECTURE I Paulinum (Language: English)

Vortrag der Kerntagung / Keynote Lecture Maria Petrova (New Economic School Moscow): “Information and Political Economy of Russia, 1999-2019“ In a series of papers, we investigate the political economy in Russia and the impact of traditional and new media on electoral outcomes and corruption. Looking into voting outcomes, we show that access to an independent TV channel increased the voting for the opposition. Field experiments that exploit the random allocation of independent observers allow us to estimate the extent of electoral fraud in Russian parliamentary elections. We explore further whether new media promote accountability. Studying the effects of blog-posts which exposed corruption in Russian state-owned companies, we show that social media can discipline corruption even in a country with limited political competition and heavily censured traditional media. In another study we show that the penetration of VK, the dominant Russian online social network, led to more protest activity during a wave of protests in

Monday Russia in 2011.

Introduction: Monika Schnitzer (Chairwoman of the Core Conference)

12:30 - 13:45 BROWN BAG EVENT Audimax (Language: German)

DIW Brown Bag Mittagsempfang / Lunch Reception on Invitation of The German Institute For Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Vortrag von Bundesminister der Finanzen und Vizekanzler Olaf Scholz Moderation: Marcel Fratzscher (DIW Berlin)

34 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

13:45 - 14:45 PANEL Audimax (Language: German)

Panel der Kerntagung / Panel of the Core Conference „30 Jahre Mauerfall – die Erfahrungen in den neuen Bundesländern“ Vertreterinnen und Vertreter aus Politik, Wirtschaft und Wissenschaft diskutieren die Entwicklungen in den neuen Bundesländern nach dem Mauerfall, insbesondere die Erfahrungen der Unternehmen und der Verwaltung beim Wechsel zu einem marktwirtschaft- lichen System, die langfristigen Auswirkungen der planwirtschaftlichen Vergangenheit und die Herausforderungen für die Zukunft.

Panel-Diskussion: • Nadja Dwenger (Universität Hohenheim) • (Mitglied des Deutschen Bundestags) • Ulrike Malmendier (University of California, Berkeley) • Christoph Mühlhaus (Sprecher des Clusters Chemie/Kunststoffe Mitteldeutschland) • Dilan Sinem Sert (Gründerin von SeDiDoc in Leipzig) Moderation: Monika Schnitzer (Leiterin der Kerntagung)

15:00 - 16:30 PREISVERLEIHUNG UND VORLESUNG Audimax (Language: German)

Verleihung des Hermann-Heinrich-Gossen-Preises durch die Vorsitzende des Vereins für Socialpolitik Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln /

Hermann Heinrich Gossen Award Ceremony with the Chairwoman of the Verein für Socialpolitik Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln Monday Mit dem mit 10.000 € dotierten Gossen-Preis des Vereins für Socialpolitik wird einmal jährlich eine Wirtschaftswissenschaftlerin oder ein Wirtschaftswissenschaftler aus dem deutschen Sprachraum ausgezeichnet, die/der mit seinen Arbeiten internationale Ansehen gewonnen hat. Das Ziel des Preises ist es, die Internationalisierung der deutschen Wirtschaftswissenschaften zu fördern. Der wichtigste Maßstab für die Vergabe des Preises sind Veröffentlichungen in international anerkannten Fachzeitschriften. Der Preis ist nach dem preußischen Anwalt Hermann Heinrich Gossen (1810 – 1858) benannt. Mit seinem aufgrund des hohen Ma- thematisierungsgrades zu seiner Zeit an Anhängern armen Werk „Die Entwickelung der Gesetze des menschlichen Verkehrs, und der daraus fließenden Regeln für menschliches Handeln“ gilt Gossen als einer der wichtigsten Vorläufer der modernen Grenznut- zenschule. Die Preisträgerin/der Preisträger wird nach einer Vorauswahl durch ein Preiskomitee vom Erweiterten Vorstand des Vereins für Socialpolitik gewählt. Über frühere Preisträger/-innen informieren Sie sich auf www.socialpolitik.org.

Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Vorlesung Jutta Allmendinger (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung): „Zur Politik des Vertrauens” Moderation: Achim Wambach (Vorsitzender der Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Kommission) Die Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen-Vorlesung ist seit dem Jahre 1986 fester Bestandteil der Jahrestagungen des Vereins für So- cialpolitik. Johann Heinrich von Thünen (1783 – 1850) war ein deutscher Agrar- und Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und Sozialreformer aus dem Mecklenburgischen. Sein „Thünensche Ringe“ getauftes Modell der landwirtschaftlichen Bodennutzung ist ein Beispiel für frühe wirtschaftsgeographische Modelle. Weitere Arbeiten beschäftigten sich unter anderem mit dem „natürlichen Arbeitslohn“. Er ist einer der Vorreiter der Verwendung des Marginalprinzips zur Lösung ökonomischer Optimierungsprobleme. Mit einer Einladung zum Halten der Thünen-Vorlesung werden außergewöhnlich verdiente Mitglieder des Vereins für Socialpo- litik und Personen geehrt, die sich für die Wirtschaftswissenschaften im deutschsprachigen Raum verdient gemacht haben. Das Thema des Vortrags wird durch den Vortragenden bestimmt. Über frühere Thünen-Redner/innen informieren Sie sich auf www.socialpolitik.org.

35 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

17:00 - 18:30 PANEL Audimax (Language: English

Panel der Zentralbanken / Panel of the Central Banks "The Role of Central Banks in the Process of Enlargement of the European Union"

The European System of Central Banks (ESCB) spans all EU countries, including countries that are not members of the euro area. This panel discusses current policy issues in the ESCB, including monetary and macroprudential policy. It distinguishes between policy decisions which are taken centrally and policy areas in which member states have national responsibilities and where cross-border coordination address issues of common interest. The speakers will also discuss policy priorities for central banks in Europe going forward.

Panel discussion: • Ardo Hansson (formerly Bank of Estonia) • Sabine Mauderer (Deutsche Bundesbank) • Boštjan Jazbec (Single Resolution Board) Moderation: Karen Horn (Journalist / University of Erfurt)

Monday, OPEN MEETING: Block B Room 9/23/2019 (Language: English)

17:00 - 18:30 B01 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and HS 13 R&D I

Chair: Markus Nagler (LMU München) 1. Erik Hille (HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management); Wilhelm Althammer (HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Manage-

Monday ment); Henning Diederich (HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management) Environmental regulation and innovation in renewable energy technologies: Does the policy instrument matter? 2. Hanna Hottenrott (TU München); Robert Richstein (Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf) Start-up subsidies: Does the policy instrument matter? 3. Markus Nagler (LMU München); Stefan Sorg (Max-Planck-Institut für Innovation und Wettbewerb) The Disciplinary Effect of Post-Grant Review

17:00 - 18:30 B02 Law and Economics HS 14

Chair: Christian Traxler (Hertie School of Governance) 1. Libor Dusek (Department of Economics, Charles University Faculty of Law); Christian Traxler (Hertie School of Governance) Punishment and Specific Deterrence: Evidence from Speeding Tickets 2. Stefan Bauernschuster (Lehrstuhl fuer Public Economics, Universitaet Passau); Ramona Rekers (Deutsche Rentenversicherung) Announced Speed Controls and Road Safety: Evidence from German Blitz Marathons 3. Libor Dusek (Department of Economics, Charles University Faculty of Law); Nicolas Pardo (Hertie School of Governance); Christian Traxler (Hertie School of Governance) Salience, Simplification, and Timely Compliance: Experimental Evidence on the Enforcement of Speeding Tickets Organised Session

36 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

17:00 - 18:30 B03 Family Economics I HS 16

Chair: Michael Oberfichtner (Institute for Employment Research IAB) 1. Corinna Frodermann (IAB); Katharina Wrohlich (DIW Berlin); Aline Zucco (DIW Berlin) Long-term Effects of the German Parental Leave Reform on Mothers’ Earnings 2. Mathias Huebener (DIW); Astrid Pape (Freie Universität Berlin); Katharina Spiess (DIW & Freie Universität Berlin) Parental Labour Supply Responses to the Abolition of Daycare Fees 3. Matthias Collischon (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Daniel Kühnle (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Michael Oberfichtner (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) The effects of a conditional home care subsidy on child care choices and maternal employment Organised Session

17:00 - 18:30 B04 Development Economics II HS 17

Chair: Theres Klühs (Leibniz Universität Hannover) 1. Claudius Gräbner (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz); Philipp Heimberger (Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschafts- vergleiche (wiiw); Jakob Kapeller (Universität Duisburg-Essen); Bernhard Schütz (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz) Structural change in times of increasing openness 2. Melanie Koch (DIW Berlin); Theres Klühs (Leibniz Universität Hannover); Wiebke Stein (Leibniz Universität Hannover) Be Positive and See Yourself Burdened with Debt? The Effect of Biased Expectations on (Over)-Indebtedness

17:00 - 18:30 B05 Experimental Economics II HS 18

Chair: Vincent Meisner (TU Berlin) Monday 1. Felix Mauersberger (University of Bonn) Thompson Sampling: Endogenously Random Behavior in Games and Markets 2. Fynn Strohecker (Universität Rostock); Philipp C. Wichardt (Universität Rostock) Integrating Context Effects into Procedural Decision Making 3. Vincent Meisner (TU Berlin); Jonas von Wangenheim (FU Berlin) School choice and loss aversion

17:00 - 18:30 B06 Macroeconomics - Labor Markets HS 19

Chair: Janine Hart (Universität Potsdam) 1. Christian Merkl (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) Hartz IV and the Decline of German Unemployment: A Macroeconomic Evaluation 2. Stefan Schiman (Austrian Institute of Economic Research WIFO); Mathias Klein (German Institute for Economic Research DIW) What accounts for the German Labor Market Miracle? A Macroeconomic Investigation 3. Janine Hart (Universität Potsdam); Marius Clemens (DIW Berlin) A search and matching approach to business-cycle migration in the euro area

37 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

17:00 - 18:30 B07 Econometrics - Forecasting I S 202

Chair: Natascha Hinterlang (Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University Frankfurt) 1. Katja Heinisch (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Christoph Schult (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Carola Engelke (University of Cologne) Effects of External Assumptions on Forecast Errors 2. Axel Lindner (Halle Institute for Economic Research); Katja Heinisch (Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle IWH) Economic Sentiment in Europe: Disentangling Private Information from Public Knowledge 3. Natascha Hinterlang (Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University Frankfurt) Predicting Monetary Policy Using Artificial Neural Networks

17:00 - 18:30 B08 Labor Economics III S 203

Chair: Patricia Gallego Granados (DIW Berlin) 1. Davud Rostam-Afschar (Universität Hohenheim); Kurt Schmidheiny (University of Basel) Taxation and Job Mobility in Europe 2. Wolfgang Frimmel (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz) Pension Reforms and Firm Behavior: The role of Wage Structures 3. Patricia Gallego Granados (DIW Berlin); Katharina Wrohlich (DIW Berlin) The Gender Wage Gap across the Distribution and Over Time

17:00 - 18:30 B09 Economic Theory - Mechanism Design S 204

Chair: Katharina Huesmann (WWU Münster) 1. Thomas Daske (Technical University of Munich) Efficient Incentives in Social Networks: "Gamification" and the Coase Theorem Monday 2. Vitali Gretschko (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung); Martin Pollrich (Universität Bonn) Sequential procurement with limited commitment 3. Katharina Huesmann (WWU Münster) Public Assignment of Scarce Resources under Income Effects

17:00 - 18:30 B10 Public Economics - Pensions and Savings S 205

Chair: Christian Hott (Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg) 1. Sebastian Finkler (Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg) Old-Age Poverty: The Household Perspective 2. Matthias Schön (Deutsche Bundesbank) Demographic Change and the German Current Account 3. Christian Hott (Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg) Save or Pay-As-You-Go

38 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

17:00 - 18:30 B11 International Finance Markets S 210

Chair: Deyan Radev (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitaet Bonn) 1. Hannes Böhm (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle IWH); Stefan Eichler (TU Dresden) Avoiding the Fall into the Loop: Isolating the Transmission of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress in the Euro Area and its Drivers 2. Frederik Neugebauer (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management) ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility 3. Andreas Barth (Goethe University Frankfurt); Deyan Radev (Bonn University) Integration Culture of Global Banks and the Transmission of Lending Shocks

17:00 - 18:30 B12 Political Economy I S 211

Chair: Johannes Rode (TU Darmstadt) 1. Regina Pleninger (ETH Zürich); Jakob de Haan (University of Groningen, De Nederlandsche Bank); Jan-Egbert Sturm (KOF ETH Zürich, CESifo) The "Forgotten" Middle - An Analysis of the Middle Class 2. Dirk Baur (University of Western Australia) Monopoly in Real Life - The Housing Market, Finance and Inequality 3. Johannes Rode (TU Darmstadt); Michael Neugart (TU Darmstadt) Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?

17:00 - 18:30 B13 Industrial Organisation - Theory S 212

Chair: Stefanie Schmitt (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg) Monday 1. Samuel de Haas (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen) Endogenous choice of minority shareholdings: Effects on product market competition 2. Markus Schlatterer (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg); Marc Saur (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg); Stefanie Sch- mitt (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg) Horizontal product differentiation with limited attentive consumers 3. Stefanie Schmitt (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg) Competition with Constrained Consumer Perception

17:00 - 18:30 B14 International Finance S 213

Chair: Jens Klose (Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen) 1. Stefan Goldbach (Deutsche Bundesbank); Matthias Efing (HEC Paris); Volker Nitsch (TU Darmstadt) Freeze! Financial sanctions and bank responses 2. Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen); Ulrich Volz (SOAS University of London | London & German Development Institute | Bonn) Capital Flows to Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3. Jens Klose (Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen) Measuring Redenomination Risks in the Euro Area - New Evidence from Survey Data

39 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

17:00 - 18:30 B15 Environmental Economics III S 214

Chair: Waldemar Marz (ifo Institut) 1. Jan Henning Kraft (European University Viadrina Frankfurt/Oder); Wolfgang Peters (European University Viadrina Frank- furt/Oder) Optimal environmental policy in presents of an heterogeneous industry 2. Matthias Kalkuhl (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) Climate policy and endogenous economic growth with poor substitution possibilities 3. Waldemar Marz (ifo Institut); Frank Goetzke (University of Louisville) CAFE in the City

17:00 - 18:30 B16 Public Economics II S 215

Chair: Lea Immel (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) 1. Andreas Mense (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Daniela Wech (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Matthias Wrede (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) How do municipalities react to a revenue shock? 2. Jürgen Antony (Hochschule Pforzheim); Torben Klarl (Bremen University) Resource Use in a Ramsey Economy with Subsistence Consumption, Resource Augmenting Technical Change and Capital Depreciation: A Full Characterization 3. Lea Immel (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.); Florian Neumeier (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V); Samina Sultan (Ludwig-Maximili- ans-Universität München) The Effect of Inequality on Fiscal Policy in German Municipalities

17:00 - 18:30 B17 Education Economics II S 220 Monday Chair: Sven Resnjanskij (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) 1. Bernhard C. Dannemann (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg) Peer Effects in Secondary Education 2. Katharina Hartinger (Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Sven Resnjanskij (ifo Institute at the University of Munich); Simon Wiederhold (Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt) Individualism and Cognitive Skills – Evidence from a Large-Scale Skill Assessment

17:00 - 18:30 B18 Monetary Policy II S 221

Chair: Alexander Jung () 1. Paul Hubert (Sciences Po - OFCE) Central Bank Sentiment 2. Bernd Hayo (School of Business and Economics) Estimating the monetary policy interst-rate-to-performance sensitivity of the European banking sector at the zero lower bound 3. Alexander Jung (European Central Bank) An analysis of ECB communication with Google Analytics Organised Session

40 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

17:00 - 18:30 B19 Health Economics I S 222

Chair: Ansgar Wübker (RWI Essen) 1. Holger Strulik (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) From Pain Patient to Junkie: An Economic Theory of Painkiller Consumption and its Impact on Wellbeing and Longevity 2. Johannes Schünemann (Universität Fribourg); Holger Strulik (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen); Timo Trimborn (Aar- hus University) Anticipation of Deteriorating Health and Information Avoidance 3. Anna Werbeck (RWI Essen); Ansgar Wübker (RWI Essen); Nicolas Ziebart (Cornell University) Cream Skimming by Health Care Providers and Inequality in Health Care Access

17:00 - 18:30 B20 Labor Economics IV S 223

Chair: Gabriel Schultze (IAAEU - Trier University) 1. Miguel Sanchez-Romero (Vienna Institute of Demography); Ron Lee (University of California, Berkeley); Alexia Fürn- kranz-Prskawetz (TU Wien) Redistributive effects of different pension structures when longevity varies by socioeconomic status in a general equilibri- um setting 2. Franziska Zimmert (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) Early child care and maternal employment: empirical evidence from Germany 3. Laszlo Goerke (IAAEU & Trier University); Gabriel Schultze (IAAEU & Trier University) Overtime and Trade Union Membership

17:00 - 18:30 B21 Experimental Economics III S 224 Monday

Chair: Maximilian Späth (Georg-August Universität Göttingen) 1. Felix Kölle (Universität zu Köln); Lukas Wenner (Universität Köln) Time-Inconsistent Generosity: Present Bias across Individual and Social Contexts 2. Michael Kurschilgen (Technische Universität München) Does Moral Awareness Increase Polarization? 3. Maximilian Späth (Universität Göttingen); Claudia Keser (Universität Göttingen) Charitable Giving

17:00 - 18:30 B22 Monetary Policy III S 225

Chair: Michael Lamla (University of Essex) 1. Alexander Haas (DIW Berlin & Humboldt University); Oliver de Groot (European Central Bank and St. Andrews University) The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates 2. Lukas Vogel (Europäische Kommission) Endogenous forward guidance 3. Michael Lamla (University of Essex); Damjan Pfajfar (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System); Lea Rendell (University of Maryland) Inflation and Deflationary Biases in Inflation Expectations

41 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

17:00 - 18:30 B23 Development Economics III S 226

Chair: Zain Chaudhry (Heidelberg University) 1. Gerrit J. Gonschorek (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg) Subnational Favoritism in Development Grant Allocations, Empirical Evidence from a Decentralized Country 2. Maximilian Linek (Hertie School of Governance) Dictating Development: Achieving Targets through Performance Contracts and Community Work 3. Zain Chaudhry (Heidelberg University); Karrar Hussain (Lahore University of Management Sciences); Muhammad Yasir Khan (UC Berkeley) Mobilizing Women Voters: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan

17:00 - 18:30 B24 Economic History I S 228

Chair: Alexander Donges (University of Mannheim) 1. Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); David de la Croix (IRES, UCLouvain and CEPR, London); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, University of Helsinki) Social status, war, medical knowledge, and the timing of life expectancy improvements among Germanic scholars over the fifteenth to nineteenth centuries. 2. Gan Jin (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg); Günther Schulze (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg) Historical Legacies and Urbanization: Evidence from Chinese Concessions 3. Alexander Donges (University of Mannheim); Felix Selgert (University of Bonn) The Consequences of Radical Patent-Regime Change

17:00 - 18:30 B25 Industrial Organisation II S 229

Chair: Sandra Kretschmer (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) Monday 1. Co-Pierre Georg (University of Cape Town); Daniel Opolot (University of Cape Town); Michael Rose (Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition) Discussants 2. Alexander Schiersch (DIW Berlin); David Audretsch (Indiana University Bloomington); Alexander Kritikos (DIW Berlin); Marian Hafenstein (DIW Berlin) Firm Size and Innovation in the Service Sector 3. Sandra Kretschmer (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Veronika Grimm (Friedrich-Alexander-Universi- tät Erlangen-Nürnberg); Simon Mehl (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) Diffusion of green innovations: The organizational setup of pilot projects and its influence on consumer perceptions

19:00 - 23:00 RECEPTION Restaurant Felix (Language: English) Augustusplatz 1-3

Empfang auf Einladung der Deutschen Bundesbank / Reception on invitation of the Deutsche Bundesbank

Grußworte / Welcome notes: • Claudia Buch (Deutsche Bundesbank)

42 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Notizen/Notes: Monday

43 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

TUESDAY September 24, 2019

Time Event Language Room Details G=German on page E=English

08:00 - 09:00 Info-Veranstaltung der Alexander von G Foyer 48 Humboldt-Stiftung

09:00 - 17:00 Jobmarket Preparation Seminar E S 227 48

09:00 - 10:30 Open Meeting Block C & Invited Session E 49

09:00 - 10:30 Session RatSWD E HS 9 56 “Using microdata to analyse the social and economic implications of reunification”

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break Foyer

11:00 - 12:30 Panel ECONWATCH G HS 9 56 „Autoritärer Staatskapitalismus oder Demo- kratie und Marktwirtschaft – wohin führt der neue Systemwettbewerb?“

11:00 - 12:30 Open Meeting Block D E 57

12:30 - 13:45 Women's Network Meeting E HS 20 64

12:30 - 13:45 Brown Bag Panel ZBW G Foyer 64 „Open Science als Leitmotiv für die Wirt- Audimax schaftswissenschaft?“

13:45 - 14:45 Keynote II E Audimax 65 Davide Cantoni: “Students - Elites - Protes- ters: China and Hong Kong at the Crossro- ads“

15:00 - 16:30 Panel des Vereins für Socialpolitik E Audimax 65

Tuesday “Women in Economics“

15:00 - 16:30 Open Meeting Block E E 66

16:30 - 16:45 Coffee Break Foyer

16:45 - 18:15 Panel der Lokalorganisation und der Hanns G Audimax 73 Martin Schleyer-Stiftung „Marktwirtschaft, Freiheit und Wohlstand“

18:15 - 18:30 Verleihung des Gustav-Stolper-Preises G Audimax 73

19:00 - 21:00 Empfang auf Einladung der G Neues 73 Hanns Martin Schleyer-Stiftung Rathaus

44 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - Open Meeting Block C & Invited Session Room Page 10:30 C01 - C23

C01 Environmental Economics IV HS 13 49

C02 Experimental Economics IV HS 16 49

C03 Gender Economics I HS 17 49

C04 Banking II HS 18 50

C05 Behavioral Economics I HS 19 50

C06 International Trade and Trade Reforms I S 202 50

C07 Labor Economics - Wages S 203 50

C08 Macroeconomics - Growth I S 204 51

C09 Labor Economics - Returns to Education S 205 51

C10 Monetary Policy IV S 210 51

C11 Taxation II S 211 51

C12 Political Economy - Elections II S 212 52

C13 Income Distribution, Inequality and Poverty S 214 52

C14 Public Economics III S 215 52

C15 Education Economics II S 220 53

C16 Monetary Policy V S 221 53

C17 Experimental Economics V S 222 53

C18 Macroeconomics I S 223 54 Tuesday

C19 Empirical Industrial Organisation I S 224 54

C20 Macroeconomics II S 225 54

C21 Industrial Organisation - Auctions S 226 54

C22 Labor Economics - Demography and Gender I S 228 55

C23 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and R&D II S 229 55

Invited Session of the Committee on HS 15 55 International Economics

45 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - Open Meeting Block D Room Page 12:30 D01 -D25

D01 Political Economy II HS 13 57

D02 Labor Economics V HS 15 57

D03 Financial Econometrics I HS 16 57

D04 Health Economics II HS 17 58

D05 Behavioral Economics II HS 18 58

D06 Behavioral Economics III HS 19 58

D07 Economic History II S 202 58

D08 Labor Economics VI S 203 59

D09 Banking III S 204 59

D10 Labor Economics VII S 205 59

D11 Empirical Industrial Organisation II S 210 59

D12 Urban Economics S 211 60

D13 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and R&D III S 212 60

D14 International Trade and Trade Reforms II S 213 60

D15 Labor Economics - Demography and Gender II S 214 60

D16 Public Goods S 215 61

D17 Education Economics IV S 220 61

D18 Business Administration S 221 61

Tuesday D19 Health Economics III S 222 61

D20 Macroeconomics III S 223 62

D21 Development Economics IV S 224 62

D22 Macroeconomics - Business Cycles S 225 62

D23 Financial Econometrics II S 226 62

D24 Economic Theory - Evolution and Learning S 228 63

D25 Industrial Organisation III S 229 63

46 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

15:00 - Open Meeting Block E Room Page 16:30 E01 - E26

E01 Political Economy III HS 13 66

E02 Environmental Economy IV HS 14 66

E03 Economic Theory - Networks, Organisations and HS 15 66 Firms

E04 Economic Theory - Contract Theory HS 16 67

E05 Applied Microeconomics I HS 17 67

E06 Experimental Economics VI HS 18 67

E07 Behavioral Economics IV HS 19 67

E08 International Trade and Trade Reforms III S 202 68

E09 Labor Economics VIII S 203 68

E10 Labor Economics - Labor Supply S 204 68

E11 Labor Economics IX S 205 68

E12 Macroeconomics - Growth II S 210 69

E13 Public Economics IV S 211 69

E14 Political Economy - Elections III S 212 69

E15 Taxation III S 213 69

E16 Labor Economics - Migration I S 214 70

E17 Public Economics V S 215 70

E18 Family Economics II S 220 70 Tuesday

E19 Applied Microeconomics II S 221 70

E20 Gender Economics II S 222 71

E21 Fiscal Policy S 223 71

E22 Empirical Industrial Organisation III S 224 71

E23 Macroeconomics IV S 225 71

E24 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and R&D IV S 226 72

E25 Labor Economics - Income Distribution and S 228 72 Inequality I

E26 Industrial Organisation IV S 229 72

47 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

08:00 – 9:00 INFO-VERANSTALTUNG Foyer (Language: German)

Info-Veranstaltung am Stand der Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung / Event of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

„Förderangebote der Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung“ In einem Impulsreferat stellt Damian Grasmück die Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung und ihre Arbeit als Wissenschafts- förderorganisation vor. Dabei soll der Schwerpunkt auf den Forschungspreisprogrammen liegen, die die Zusammenarbeit von ausländischen und deutschen Spitzenforscherinnen und -forschern ermöglichen. Dieser Vortrag richtet sich vor allem an deutsche Wirtschaftswissenschaftlerinnen und -wissenschaftler, die sich vorstellen können, eine Kollegin oder einen Kollegen aus dem Ausland für einen Forschungspreis oder gar eine Alexander von Humboldt-Professur zu nominieren, um so ihre inter- nationalen Kooperationen zu stärken. Anschließend gibt es bei Kaffee und Croissants auch die Möglichkeit zur individuellen Beratung. Referent: • Damian Grasmück (Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung)

09:00 – 16:30 JOBMARKET PREPARATION SEMINAR S 227 (Language: English)

Jobmarket Preparation Seminar

Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame), together with Paul Heidhues (Düsseldorf University, DICE), and Daniel Sturm (London School of Economics), offer a two-day job market preparation seminar for eight PhD student who had applied for the participation in advance (application deadline: July 31, 2019). Applicants are members of the VfS and had to prepare a potential job market paper for the seminar. Content: • Presentation on the international job market • Three-minute spiel on the job market paper • Mock interviews • Presentation of the job market paper Goals: • Raising awareness with PhD students that the presentation and proper communication of research is ever more important for a career in academia. • Teaching of the often informal rules and scripts that govern the international and domestic academic job market. • Feedback from experienced senior researchers. • PhD students need to learn to prove themselves outside the comfort zone of their own departments.

Tuesday Target Group: • Advanced PhD students who are thinking about going on the international job market. • Advanced PhD students with a more German focus who want to improve their communication and presentation skills. Moderation: • Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame) • Paul Heidhues (Düsseldorf University, DICE) • Daniel Sturm (London School of Economics)

48 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Tuesday, OPEN MEETING: Block C Room 9/24/2019 (Language: English)

09:00 - 10:30 C01 Environmental Economics IV HS 13

Chair: Carsten Helm (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg) 1. Janosch Schobin (Universität Kassel); Anja Köbrich (Universität Kassel) You Don”t Own Me– selection versus influencing processes in pro-enviornmental and pro-social decision-making within families 2. Achim Voß (Universität Hamburg) Energy-Efficiency Policy and its Effects at the Intensive and at the Extensive Investment Margins with Heterogenous House- holds 3. Carsten Helm (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg); Mathias Mier (ifo Institut) Subsidising Renewables but Taxing Storage? Second-Best Policies with Imperfect Carbon Pricing

09:00 - 10:30 C02 Experimental Economics IV HS 16

Chair: Yves Le Yaouanq (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) 1. Antonia Grohmann (DIW Berlin) Earn more tomorrow: Overcon dent income expectations and consumer indebtedness 2. Bernhard Kassner (LMU Munich) Overcondence, Public Guarantees, and Risk-taking in the US Banking Sector 3. Yves Le Yaouanq (LMU Munich) Learning about one's self Organised Session

09:00 - 10:30 C03 Gender Economics I HS 17

Chair: Sevrin Waights (DIW Berlin) 1. Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen)

Women and the labour market in East and : The role of socialist legacy and pre-socialist tradition Tuesday 2. Marina Töpfer (FAU Erlangen Nürnberg); Stephanie Briel (Universität Hohenheim) Estimating the Conditional Gender Pay Gap: The Role of Omitted Controls 3. Vicente Lagos (Télécom ParisTech); Ángela Muñoz (Deloitte and Télécom ParisTech); Christine Zulehner (University of Vienna) Gender-specific benefits from ride-hailing apps: Evidence from Uber’s entry in Chile 4. Sevrin Waights (DIW Berlin) The impact of paternity leave on the gender pay gap: Kink design evidence using German tax data

49 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 C04 Banking II HS 18

Chair: Christoph Memmel (Deutsche Bundesbank) 1. Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School); Deyan Radev (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn); (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn) Bank Resolution Regimes and Systemic Risk 2. Martin Kuncl (Bank of Canada); Toni Ahnert (Bank of Canad and CEPR) Loan Insurance, Adverse Selection and Screening 3. Christoph Memmel (Deutsche Bundesbank); Vanessa Dräger (Deutsche Bundesbank); Lotta Heckmann-Draisbach (Deut- sche Bundesbank) Risk Management in German Banks: Evidence from a Quantitative Survey

09:00 - 10:30 C05 Behavioral Economics I HS 19

Chair: Alexia Gaudeul (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) 1. Louis Strang (Uni Bonn); Holger Gerhardt (University of Bonn); Frederik Schwerter (University of Cologne); Gerhard Riener (Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) Concentration Bias in Intertemporal Choice 2. Dmitri Bershadskyy (Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle) Reverberation Effect of an Efficient Institution 3. Alexia Gaudeul (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen); Paolo Crosetto (INRA-GAEL, Université Grenoble-Alpes) Fast then Slow: The Rise and Fall of the Attraction Effect

09:00 - 10:30 C06 International Trade and Trade Reforms I S 202

Chair: Christian Fischer (Universität Bayreuth) 1. Sven Blank (Deutsche Bundesbank) A Structural Quantitative Analysis of Services Trade De-liberalization 2. Philipp Harms (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz); Nils Steiner (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz) The China Shock and the Nationalist Backlash against Globalization: Attitudinal Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey 3. Christian Fischer (Universität Bayreuth); Hartmut Egger (Universität Bayreuth) Increasing Resistance to Globalization: The Role of Trade in Tasks Tuesday

09:00 - 10:30 C07 Labor Economics - Wages S 203

Chair: Karol Kempa (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) 1. Martin Kerndler (TU Wien) Size and persistence matters: Wage and employment insurance at the micro level 2. Melanie Arntz (ZEW Mannheim and University of Heidelberg); Angelika Ganserer (ZEW Zentrum für Europäische Wirt- schaftsforschung, Mannheim); Michael Maier (ZEW Mannheim); Stephan Lothar Thomsen (Leibniz University Hannover) Are working conditions of contract workers always bad? Firm level evidence on contracting out 3. Karol Kempa (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH) Remuneration of Generalists versus Specialists: Evidence based on Task-Specific Human Capital

50 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 C08 Macroeconomics - Growth I S 204

Chair: Michaela Schmöller (Bank of Finland) 1. Katja Mann (Copenhagen Business School); Lukas Henkel (Universität Mannheim) Automation and Structural Change 2. Thomas Gries (University of Paderborn) Income polarization and stagnation in a stochastic model of stationary demand-constraint growth 3. Michaela Schmöller (Bank of Finland) Stagnant Wages, Sectoral Misallocation and Slowing Productivity Growth

09:00 - 10:30 C09 Labor Economics - Returns to Education S 205

Chair: Benjamin Fischer (FU Berlin) 1. Tobias Schultheiss (Universität Zürich); Curdin Pfister (Unversität Zürich); Uschi Backes-Gellner (Universität Zürich) Tertiary education expansion and task demand: Does a rising tide lift all boats? 2. Patrick Sturm (University of Würzburg); Daniel Kühnle (University of Erlangen–Nuremberg) The intergenerational effect of education on mental health - evidence from a regression discontinuity design for the UK 3. Benjamin Fischer (Freie Universität Berlin); Dominik Hügle (Freie Universität Berlin) The Distribution of Private and Fiscal Returns to Higher Education

09:00 - 10:30 C10 Monetary Policy IV S 210

Chair: Jesper Riedler (ZEW Mannheim) 1. Mark Kerssenfischer (Deutsche Bundesbank) Information Effects of Euro Area Monetary Policy 2. Johannes Strobel (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt); Gabriel Lee (Universität Regensburg); Victor Dorofeenko (Institute for Advanced Studies); Kevin Salyer (University of California, Davis) Time-Varying Risk Shocks and the Zero Lower Bound 3. Jesper Riedler (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) Euro Area Quantitative Easing in a Portfolio Balance Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Assets Tuesday

09:00 - 10:30 C11 Taxation II S 211

Chair: Dirk Engelmann (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) 1. Albrecht Bohne (ZEW Mannheim); Jan Sebastian Nimczik (Humboldt University Berlin) Harnessing Deductions to Increase Tax Compliance and Formalization 2. Dirk Engelmann (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Eckhard Janeba (University of Mannheim); Lydia Mechtenberg (Univer- sity of Hamburg); Nils Wehrhöfer (University of Mannheim) Preferences over Taxation of High Income Individuals: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

51 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 C12 Political Economy - Elections II S 212

Chair: Antonio Farfan-Vallespin (Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg) 1. Marco Frank (Bayreuth University); David Stadelmann (Universität Bayreuth) Do more Federal Legislators Lead to More Resources for their Constituencies? 2. Marco Portmann (Agroscope); David Stadelmann (Universität Bayreuth); Reiner Eichenberger (University of Fribourg) Incentives dominate selection 3. Antonio Farfan-Vallespin (Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg) Incumbency Effects when Party-Switching is Frequent

09:00 - 10:30 C13 Income Distribution, Inequality and Poverty S 214

Chair: Larissa Klick (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V.) 1. Giacomo Corneo (FU Berlin); Timm Bönke (FU Berlin); Holger Lüthen (FU Berlin, DIW Berlin) Lifetime Inequality and Redistribution in Germany 2. Holger Lüthen (DIW Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin); Timm Bönke (Freie Universität Berlin); Astrid Harnack (Freie Universi- tät Berlin) Are children better off? Intergenerational Mobility of Living Standards 3. Larissa Klick (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V.); Sandra Schaffner (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research) Do housing costs eat up all regional income disparities?

09:00 - 10:30 C14 Public Economics III S 215

Chair: Maja Adena (WZB Berlin) 1. Kai-Uwe Müller (DIW Berlin); Björn Fischer (DIW Berlin) Time to care? The effects of retirement on informal care provision 2. Ulrich Glogowsky (University of Munich LMU); Johannes Rincke (Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg); Tobias Cagala (Deutsche Bundesbank) Who to Target in Fundraising? A Field Experiment on Gift Exchange 3. Maja Adena (WZB Berlin); Steffen Huck (WZB Berlin) Personalized fundraising: A field experiment on threshold matching of donations Tuesday

52 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 C15 Education Economics III S 220

Chair: Johanna Sophie Quis (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg) 1. Franziska Hampf (ifo Institut); Guido Schwerdt (Universität Konstanz); Simon Wiederhold (Katholische Universität Eich- stätt-Ingolstadt) International Variation in the Contribution of Cognitive Skills to College Wage Premia - Evidence from a Large-Scale Skills Assessment 2. Marc Stöckli (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich e.V.); Benjamin Arold (ifo In- stitute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich e.V.); Paul Hufe (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich e.V.) Genetic Endowments, Educational Outcomes and the Mediating Influence of School Investments 3. Johanna Sophie Quis (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg); Anika Bela (Leibniz-Institut für Bildungsverläufe); Guido Heineck (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg) Preschoolers' self-regulation, skill differentials, and early educational outcomes

09:00 - 10:30 C16 Monetary Policy V S 221

Chair: Elke Muchlinski (Berlin School of Economics and Law) 1. Bernhard Winkler (European Central Bank); Patrick Kühl; Stefano Nardelli (European Central Bank) The ECB’s “Monetary Policy Accounts” and trade-offs in central bank communication – a conceptual framework and some textual analysis 2. Paul Hubert (Sciences Po - OFCE) State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: the Central Bank Information Channel 3. Elke Muchlinski (Berlin School of Economics and Law) Communication, Forward Guidance and Steering Market expectations as Conditional Framing Future Policy Organised Session

09:00 - 10:30 C17 Experimental Economics V S 222

Chair: Johannes Diederich (Universität Heidelberg) 1. Konstantin Chatziathanasiou (Universität Münster); Svenja Hippel (Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg); Michael Kurschilgen (Technische Universität München) Tuesday Concession and Compensation 2. Dietmar Fehr (Universität Heidelberg); Stefan Trautmann (Universität Heidelberg); Hannes Rau (Universität Heidelberg); Yilong Xu (Universität Heidelberg) Inequality, Fairness and Social Capital 3. Johannes Diederich (Heidelberg University); Catherine C. Eckel (Texas A&M University); Raphael Epperson (University of Mannheim); Timo Goeschl (Heidelberg University); Philip J. Grossman (Monash University) Subsidizing Quantity Donations: Matches, Rebates, and Discounts Compared

53 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 C18 Macroeconomics I S 223

Chair: Johannes Poeschl (Danmarks Nationalbank) 1. Hans Fehr (Universität Würzburg); Maurice Hofmann (University of Wuerzburg) Home ownership as self-insurance for long-term care - A dynamic simulation analysis 2. Nils Grevenbrock (European University Institute) Homeownership Rates, Housing Policies, and Co-residence Decisions 3. Johannes Poeschl (Danmarks Nationalbank); Xue Zhang (KBC) Bank Capital Regulation and Endogenous Shadow Banking Crises

09:00 - 10:30 C19 Empirical Industrial Organisation I S 224

Chair: Falk Laser (TU Darmstadt) 1. Anna Kerkhof (University of Cologne) Advertising and Content Differentiation: Evidence from YouTube 2. Simon Martin (Universität Wien) Market Transparency and Consumer Search 3. Falk Laser (TU Darmstadt); Michael Hellwig (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) Agony of Choice – Trading off Stability and Competition in the Banking Markets

09:00 - 10:30 C20 Macroeconomics II S 225

Chair: Enzo Weber (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung) 1. Johannes Trunzer (Leibniz Universität Hannover); Stephan Lothar Thomsen (Leibniz Universität Hannover) Did the Bologna Process Challenge the German Apprenticeship System? Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Experiment 2. Sebastian Weiske (German Council of Economic Experts) Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area 3. Britta Gehrke (IAB, FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg); Enzo Weber (IAB, Universität Regensburg) Combining Labor Market Reforms and Fiscal Policy in Recessions

09:00 - 10:30 C21 Industrial Organisation - Auctions S 226

Tuesday Chair: Marion Ott (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) 1. Nicolas Fugger (ZEW Mannheim); Ulrich Laitenberger (Telecom ParisTech) Drug Procurement Auctions and Supply Uncertainty 2. Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel (Technische Universität Berlin); Tim Grebe (Berlin); Sabine Kröger (Université Laval) How do sellers benefit from Buy-It-Now prices in eBay auctions? 3. Marion Ott (RWTH Aachen University) Simple Bayesian and Ex-Post Equilibria in Combinatorial Auctions

54 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 C22 Labor Economics - Demography and Gender I S 228

Chair: Christian Holzner (LMU München und ifo Institut) 1. Ulf Rinne (IZA - Institute of Labor Economics); Hendrik Sonnabend (FernUniversität Hagen) Female Workers, Male Managers: Gender, Leadership, and Risk-taking 2. Boris Hirsch (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg); Elke Jahn (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB); Thomas Zwick (Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg) Birds, Birds, Birds: Co-worker Similarity, Workplace Diversity, and Voluntary Turnover 3. Christian Holzner (LMU Munich); Bastian Schulz (Aarhus University) Marriage and Divorce under Labor Market Uncertainty

09:00 - 10:30 C23 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and S 229 R&D II

Chair: Tobias Schlegel (Universität Zürich) 1. Bastian Krieger (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) Public University Research Funding and local University-Firm Cooperation 2. Gunnar Gutsche (Universität Kassel); Andreas Ziegler (University of Kassel) Determinants of environmental product and process innovations 3. Tobias Schlegel (Universität Zürich); Curdin Pfister (University Zurich); Uschi Backes-Gellner (University of Zurich); Dietmar Harhoff (Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition) Heterogeneous regional innovation spillovers of universities of applied sciences

09:00 - 10:30 Invited Session of the Committee on HS 15 International Economics

Chair: Hartmut Egger (University of Bayreuth) 1. Gernot Müller (University of Tuebingen) International spillovers and exchange rate dynamics 2. Wilhelm Kohler (University of Tuebingen) Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration Tuesday 3. Carsten Eckel (LMU Munich) Too Much of a Good Thing? Labor Market Imperfections as a Source of Exceptional Exporter Performance Invited Session

55 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 – 10:30 SESSION HS 9 (Language: English)

Session des Rates für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsdaten (RatSWD) / Session of the German Data Forum “Using microdata to analyse the social and economic implications of reunification” The research data centres (RDCs) accredited by the German Data Forum (RatSWD) provide researchers with a multitude of da- tasets to describe and analyse the social and economic implications of the fall of the Berlin Wall along several dimensions. This session aims at presenting select datasets that are available at RDCs for analysing this transformational process in depth. Lectures: • East Germany’s transition from a planned to a market economy in the light of indicators Cornelia Lang (Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle - IWH) • Post-reunification firm-ownership in the former GDR Moritz Lubczyk (ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) • A dataset for analyzing the labor market trajectories of East Germans around reunification Philipp vom Berge (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung - IAB) • Ageing and Volunteering in East and West Germany since the 1990s – Data of the German Ageing Survey and the German Survey on Volunteering Nicole Hameister and Heribert Engstler (Deutsches Zentrum für Altersfragen - DZA) • The Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) Jan Goebel (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung - DIW) Moderation: Stefan Bender (RatSWD)

11:00 – 12:30 PANEL HS 9 (Language: German)

ECONWATCH Panel / Panel discussion of ECONWATCH

„Autoritärer Staatskapitalismus oder Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft – wohin führt der neue Systemwettbewerb?“

Der Aufstieg Chinas hat den Glauben an das „Ende der Geschichte“ erschüttert und einen neuen Systemwettbewerb eröffnet. Während das demokratische Europa politisch zunehmend zerstritten ist und die Vereinigten Staaten eine Politik des Protektionis- mus und der nationalen Alleingänge verfolgen, erreicht China seine dynamische Entwicklung mit einer Einheitspartei und einem System, in dem individuelle Freiheit, Rechtsstaatlichkeit, sowie Meinungs- und Pressefreiheit nur schwach ausgeprägt sind. Im neuen Systemwettbewerb stehen die westlichen, liberal-marktwirtschaftlichen Demokratien einem autoritären Staatskapi- talismus gegenüber, der in unterschiedlicher Ausprägung in China, Russland oder auch anderen Staaten anzutreffen ist. Die In- strumente dieses Wettbewerbs reichen von militärischer über wirtschaftliche Macht bis hin zur Einflussnahme auf Nachrichten Tuesday und die Deutungshoheit. Ziel der Panels ist es zu erörtern, welche Herausforderungen der neue Systemwettbewerb für den Westen bringt, wie diesen begegnet werden sollte und welches System langfristig besser für Wachstum und Wohlstand wird sorgen können. Panel-Diskussion: • Dirk Christian Dohse (Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel - IfW) • Hanns Günther Hilpert (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) • Mikko Huotari (Mercator Institute for China Studies) • Dalia Marin (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) Moderation: Patrick Bernau (FAZ)

56 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

Tuesday, OPEN MEETING: Block D Room 9/24/2019 (Language: English)

11:00 - 12:30 D01 Political Economy II HS 13

Chair: Ana Maria Montoya Gómez (ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) 1. Sven Kunze (Heidelberg University); Stephan A. Schneider (ETH Zürich) Disastrous Discretion - The Nonlinear Political Bias in U.S. Hurricane Relief 2. Miriam Kautz (Friedrich - Schiller - Universität - Jena); Andreas Freytag (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena); Christopher Ball (Quinnipiac University) Populism - What next? 3. Ana Maria Montoya Gómez (ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) Natural Resources, Institutions and Development: A Within-Country Approach

11:00 - 12:30 D02 Labor Economics V HS 15

Chair: Joachim Winter (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) 1. Vera Angelova (Technische Universität Berlin); Thomas Giebe (Linnaeus University); Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel (Techni- sche Universität Berlin) Competition and Fatigue at Work 2. Annekatrin Schrenker (Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) Part-Time Penalties - (Not So) Biased Beliefs? 3. Joachim Winter (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität); Jeffrey Grogger (University of Chicago); Andreas Steinmayr (Lud- wig-Maximilians-Universität) The Wage Penalty of Regional Accents Organised Session

11:00 - 12:30 D03 Financial Econometrics I HS 16

Chair: Christian Conrad (Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg) 1. Julia Schaumburg (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) Tuesday Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data 2. Hans Manner (University of Graz) Model and Moment Selection in Factor Copula Models 3. Christian Conrad (Universität Heidelberg) 'Deja vol' revisited: Survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios Organised Session

57 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - 12:30 D04 Health Economics II HS 17

Chair: Marco Runkel (Technische Universität Berlin) 1. Björn Fischer (DIW-Berlin) Retirement and informal care provision - Effects of the 1999 pension reform in Germany 2. Florian Wozny (IZA - Institute of Labor Economics) Low Emission Zones for Better Health: Evidence from German Hospitals 3. Zarko Kalamov (Technische Universität Berlin); Marco Runkel (Technische Universität Berlin) Sin Taxes, Insurance and the Correction of Internalities

11:00 - 12:30 D05 Behavioral Economics II HS 18

Chair: Melanie Dunger (Georg-August University of Göttingen) 1. Friederike Mengel (University of Essex) Measuring Uncertainty Attitudes and their Impact on Behaviour in General Social Surveys 2. Thomas Neuber (Universität Bonn); Jana Hofmeier (Uni Bonn) Motivated by Others’ Preferences? An Experiment on Imperfect Empathy 3. Melanie Dunger (Georg-August University of Goettingen); Claudia Keser (Georg-August University of Goettingen) The Effects of Group Identity on Reporting Norm Deviants

11:00 - 12:30 D06 Behavioral Economics III HS 19

Chair: Daniela Rützler (Leopold-Franzens-Universität Innsbruck) 1. Malte Preuß (German Council of Economic Experts) Intra-Individual Stability of Time Preferences: A Survey Approach for the Long-Run 2. Samuel Kofi Tetteh-Baah (NADEL, ETH Zurich) The impact of discrimination on redistributive preferences and productivity: experimental evidence from the United States 3. Silvia Angerer (Health & Life Sciences University (UMIT); Daniela Rützler (Leopold-Franzens-Universität Innsbruck); Chris- tian Waibel (ETH Zurich) Monitoring institutions in health care markets: Experimental evidence

11:00 - 12:30 D07 Economic History II S 202 Tuesday Chair: Christian Haas (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen) 1. Mirja C. Hälbig (Universität Leipzig); Jürgen R. Lorenz (Universität Leipzig) How Stalin and Roosevelt influenced the Federal Elections in 2017 East Germany 2. Moritz Hennicke (Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB); Lukas Mergele (ifo Institut) The Privatization of the Treuhand Agency. A Workshop Report 3. Christian Haas (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen) Winter, Technological Progress, and Comparative Development

58 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

11:00 - 12:30 D08 Labor Economics VI S 203

Chair: Julia Lang (Institute for Employment Research (IAB) 1. Alexandra Fedorets (DIW Berlin); Kai-Uwe Müller (DIW Berlin) Large Wage Shocks, Technological Substitution and Employment Perspectives 2. Simon Janssen (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB); Uschi Backes-Gellner (University of Zurich); Christian Eggenberger (University of Zurich) The value of specific skills in a globalized world 3. Pia Homrighausen (Institute for Employment Research (IAB); Julia Lang (Institute for Employment Research IAB) Do informational nudges alter firms’ hiring behavior of older workers?

11:00 - 12:30 D09 Banking III S 204

Chair: Adalbert Winkler (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management) 1. Caterina Forti Grazzini (DIW Berlin); Dorothea Schäfer (DIW Berlin, JIBS and CERBE) Banking sector diversity and bank stability 2. Christa Hainz (ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.); Susanne Wildgruber (University of Munich) Effects of the Removal of Government Guarantees for Banks on the Real Economy: Firm-level Evidence from Germany 3. Adalbert Winkler (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management); Anton Rop (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management); Aron Gereben (European Investment Bank); Matic Petricek (European University Institute) Do IFIs make a difference? The impact of EIB lending support for SMEs in Central and Eastern Europe during the global financial crisis

11:00 - 12:30 D10 Labor Economics VII S 205

Chair: Christian Holzner (LMU München und ifo Institut) 1. Arne Uhlendorff (CNRS,CREST) Mandatory integration agreements for unemployed job seekers. Evidence from a randomized field experiment in Germany 2. Tobias Föll (Universität zu Köln); Anna Hartmann (Universität zu Köln) A Joint Theory of Polarization and Deunionization Tuesday 3. Christian Holzner (LMU München und ifo Institut); Makoto Watanabe (VU Amsterdam) Do intermediaries reduce coordination frictions?

11:00 - 12:30 D11 Empirical Industrial Organisation II S 210

Chair: Michael Hellwig (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) 1. Andreas Polk (Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin); Michael Hellwig (ZEW Mannheim, MaCCI) Determinants of Water Prices in Germany 2. Martin Gornig (DIW Berlin); Alexander Schiersch (DIW Berlin) Agglomeration economies and firm TFP: different effects across industries 3. Michael Hellwig (ZEW Mannheim); Dominik Schober (ZEW Mannheim) Acquisitions in Markets with Frictions

59 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - 12:30 D12 Urban Economics S 211

Chair: Wolfgang Dauth (Universität Würzburg und IAB) 1. Matthias Wrede (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg FAU) Decentralization of nursing-home regulation 2. Luisa Dörr (ifo Institute); Stefanie Gäbler (ifo Institute); Florian Dorn (ifo Institute); Niklas Potrafke (ifo Institute) How airports promote tourism: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in German regions 3. Wolfgang Dauth (Universität Würzburg); Peter Haller (IAB) Loss aversion in the trade-off between wages and commuting distances

11:00 - 12:30 D13 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and S 212 R&D III

Chair: Martin Falk (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) 1. Philipp Boeing (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research); Bettina Peters (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) Effectiveness and Efficacy of R&D Subsidies: Estimating Treatment Effects with One-sided Noncompliance 2. Finn Ole Semrau (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Aoife Hanley (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Stepping up to the mark? Firms' export activity and environmental innovation in 14 European countries 3. Martin Falk (Austrian Institute of Economic Research WIFO); Eva Hagsten (University of Iceland) Attractiveness and efficiency of European universities as hosts for Marie Curie grant holders

11:00 - 12:30 D14 International Trade and Trade Reforms II S 213

Chair: Davide Suverato (TUM School of Management) 1. Simone Habermeyer (Universität Bayreuth); Hartmut Egger (Universität Bayreuth) Nonhomothetic Preferences and Rent Sharing in an Open Economy 2. Miriam Kohl (Johannes Gutenberg Universität Mainz); Philipp Richter (TU Dresden) Unilateral Tax Policy in the Open Economy 3. Davide Suverato (TUM); Dalia Marin (TUM); Thierry Verdier (Paris School of Economics) Mis-allocation within Firms: Internal Finance and International Trade

11:00 - 12:30 D15 Labor Economics - Demography and S 214 Tuesday Gender II

Chair: Aline Zucco (DIW Berlin) 1. Sascha Satlukal (University of Hohenheim); Stephanie Briel (University of Hohenheim); Mirjam Reutter (University of Hohenheim); Gregor Pfeifer (University of Hohenheim) Overconfidence and Gender Differences in Wage Expectations 2. Jonas Jessen (DIW Berlin and Free University Berlin); Sevrin Waights (DIW Berlin); C. Katharina Spieß (DIW Berlin) The Impact of Formal Child Care on Parenting Intensity 3. Aline Zucco (DIW Berlin) Occupational characteristics and the Gender Pay Gap

60 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

11:00 - 12:30 D16 Public Goods S 215

Chair: Daniel Stöhlker (ifo Institut e.V.) 1. David Kusterer (Universität zu Köln); Patrick Schmitz (Universität zu Köln) Public Goods, Property Rights, and Investment Incentives: An Experimental Investigation 2. Daniel Stöhlker (ifo Institut e.V.) Quality of Local Public Good Provision and Electoral Support

11:00 - 12:30 D17 Education Economics IV S 220

Chair: Lisa Höckel (RWI - Leibniz Institut for Economic Research) 1. Peter Haan (DIW & Freie Universität Berlin); Niklas Gohl (Uni Potsdam); Felix Weinhardt (DIW); Elisabeth Kurz (DIW) Dynamic Human Capital Investment: Causal Evidence from Pension Reform 2. Pascal Heß (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB); Silke Anger (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsfor- schung IAB); Max Kunaschk (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) The Impact of Minimum Wages on Teenagers’ Educational Expectations 3. Lisa Höckel (RWI - Leibniz Institut for Economic Research) Speaking the same language - The effect of foreign origin teachers on students’ language skills

11:00 - 12:30 D18 Business Administration S 221

Chair: Stefanie Wolter (Institute for Employment Research (IAB) 1. Florian Englmaier (LMU); Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez (Universidad Publica de Navarra); Ricard Gil (Queen's University); Michael Kaiser (LMU) Management practices and firm performance during the Great Recession 2. Susanne Steffes (Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Promotion Probabilities and Quit Behavior 3. Philipp Grunau (Institute for Employment Research (IAB); Stefanie Wolter (Institute for Employment Research IAB) Employee-oriented management in the competition for skilled labor: The impact of HR measures on perceived work quality and turnover Organised Session Tuesday

11:00 - 12:30 D19 Health Economics III S 222

Chair: Rebekka Rehm (Institute for Economic Policy at the University of Cologne) 1. Relika Stoppel (University of Potsdam) Alcohol availability and alcohol-attributable mortality: Evidence from administrative data 2. Rebekka Rehm (Institute for Economic Policy at the University of Cologne); Clemens Recker (Institut für Wirtschaftspoli- tik an der Universität zu Köln) Medical supply in rural areas of Germany: evidence from an empirical entry model

61 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - 12:30 D20 Macroeconomics III S 223

Chair: Timo Trimborn (Aarhus University) 1. Galina Potjagailo (Kiel Institut for the World Economy); Maik H. Wolters (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) Global Financial Cycles since 1880 2. Pascal Goemans (Ruhr Graduate School in Economics and University of Duisburg-Essen); Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn and King’s College, London) Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis 3. Timo Trimborn (Aarhus University); Johannes Schünemann (University of Göttingen) Boosting Taxes for Boasting about Houses? Status Concerns in the Housing Market

11:00 - 12:30 D21 Development Economics IV S 224

Chair: Michael Fritsch (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) 1. Sandra Achten (TU Braunschweig, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre); Christian Lessmann (TU Braunschweig) Spatial Inequality, Geography and Economic Activity 2. Denis Stijepic (FernUniversität Hagen) On development paths minimizing the aggregate labor-reallocation costs in the three-sector framework and an application to structural policy 3. Michael Fritsch (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) Persistence of Entrepreneurship in Different Historical Context

11:00 - 12:30 D22 Macroeconomics - Business Cycles S 225

Chair: Patrick Hirsch (Walter Eucken Institut) 1. Felix Strobel (Goethe Universität Frankfurt); Gregor Boehl (Goethe University Frankfurt) The Great Recession and the Zero Lower Bound 2. Daniel Stempel (Heinrich Heine Universität Düsseldorf); Ulrike Neyer (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf) The Effects of Gender Discrimination in DSGE Models 3. Patrick Hirsch (Walter Eucken Institut) Heterogeneous rental markets in a DSGE model of the euro area Tuesday 11:00 - 12:30 D23 Financial Econometrics II S 226

Chair: Roxana Halbleib (University of Konstanz) 1. Lars Winkelmann (FU Berlin) Detecting a hidden inflation component in high-frequency yield curves using rank tests for covolatility processes 2. Anastasios Demertzidis (Kassel University); Vahidin Jeleskovic (University of Kassel) Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves 3. Roxana Halbleib (University of Konstanz); Timo Dimitriadis (University of Konstanz) How Informative is High-Frequency data for Tail Risk Estimation and Forecasting?

62 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

11:00 - 12:30 D24 Economic Theory - Evolution and Learning S 228

Chair: Christian Siemering (Leibniz Universität Hannover) 1. Alexia Gaudeul (University of Göttingen); Claudia Keser (University of Göttingen); Stephan Müller (Universität Göttingen) The coevolutiton of morals under indirect reciprocity 2. Kira Lancker (Leipzig University); Martin Quaas (Leipzig University) Increasing marginal costs and the efficiency of differentiated feed-in tariffs 3. Christian Siemering (Leibniz Universität Hannover) The Economics of Fraudulent Insurance Companies

11:00 - 12:30 D25 Industrial Organisation III S 229

Chair: Nicolas Wellmann (Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf) 1. Marek Giebel (TU Dortmund); Kornelius Kraft (TU Dortmund University) The sensitivity of R&D to financing constraints of firms as well of their banks before, during and after the financial crisis 2. Arne Neukirch (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg); Thomas Wein (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg) Price Gouging at the Pump? The Lerner Index and the German Fuel Market 3. Nicolas Wellmann (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics DICE) Hello . . . Are You Still There? An Empirical Analysis How Market Structure Affects Quality of Mobile Networks Tuesday

63 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

12:30 - 13:45 WOMEN'S NETWORK MEETING HS 20 (Language: English)

Women’s Network Meeting The Verein für Socialpolitik supports the networking of female scientists. This special networking event will also be a forum to promote a mutual exchange of information and contacts to discuss female-specific concerns and perspectives.

Moderation: Dorothea Kübler (VfS Equal Opportunities Officer)

12:30 - 13:45 BROWN BAG EVENT Foyer (Language: German) Audimax

ZBW Brown Bag Panel / Panel discussion of the ZBW „Open Science als Leitmotiv für die Wirtschaftswissenschaft?“ Die Digitalisierung verändert nicht nur Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, sondern wirkt sich auch auf Forschungsprozesse und Kommunikation innerhalb der Wissenschaft aus - gleichzeitig bietet sie eine Chance für mehr Transparenz und Offenheit, was wiederum zu einer höheren Glaubwürdigkeit der Wissenschaft führt. Die verschiedenen Ansätze zur Umsetzung werden zumeist unter dem Oberbegriff Open Science zusammengefasst und beinhalten z.B. • den freien Zugang zu Forschungspublikationen (Open Access) • die offene Begutachtung von Forschungsergebnissen (Open Peer Review) • nachhaltige Ansätze beim Forschungsdatenmanagement (FAIR Data) Die Wissenschaftspolitik und die Forschungsförderung unterstützen Open Science mit großen Förderprogrammen (z.B. Horizon Europe) und zunehmenden Forderungen an die Wissenschaftseinrichtungen, aber wie sieht es in den einzelnen For- schungsdisziplinen mit ihren etablierten Kommunikationskulturen und Forschungsprozessen aus? Am Beispiel der Wirtschaftswissenschaften wollen wir das Thema Open Science in seinen verschiedenen Facetten mit ver- schiedenen VertreterInnen aus der Forschungscommunity diskutieren. Dabei sollen insbesondere folgende Fragestellungen adressiert werden: • Welches Potential bieten offene Forschungsansätze für die Wissenschaftskommunikation innerhalb der Wirtschaftsforschung? • Wie wirkt sich Open Science auf bestehende Forschungspraktiken aus? Welche Konfliktlinien bestehen ggfs. (mit anderen wis- senschaftspolitischen Vorgaben oder mit etablierten Prozessen der Wissenschaftskommunikation) bzw. welches sind Hinder- nisse für die Etablierung von Open Science (z.B. Bewertung wissenschaftlicher Exzellenz auf Basis von Zitationshäufigkeiten)? • Gibt es Bereiche, für die mehr Offenheit aus Forschungssicht auch Risiken oder Nachteile mit sich bringt?

Tuesday • Welche Indikatoren für Open Science sollten etabliert werden, die sich auch besonders gut für die Wirtschaftswissenschaf- ten eignen? • In welcher Dimension von Wissenschaft (Forschung, Lehre, Transfer) sind die größten Fortschritte durch Open Science zu erwarten?

Panel-Diskussion: • Ulrich Fritsche (Universität Hamburg) • Joachim Gassen (HU Berlin) • Sarah Necker (Walter Eucken Institut, Freiburg) • Joachim Winter (LMU München) Moderation: Willi Scholz (ZBW)

64 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

13:45 - 14:45 KEYNOTE LECTURE II Audimax (Language: English)

Vortrag der Kerntagung / Keynote Lecture Davide Cantoni (LMU): "Students - Elites - Protesters: China and Hong Kong at the Crossroads" Thirty years after the Revolutions of 1989, China remains a communist country. Yet behind the outward image of a cut-throat free market economy under tight control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), there is a vibrant and variegated civil society, in which control of dissent is challenging. It remains an open question whether China will continue to defy the core prediction of modernization theory — an increasing demand for democracy as incomes rise. This keynote sheds light on two areas. First, I will discuss political and social views of Chinese students; especially of those that will be called upon to lead the country in future years, by rising through the ranks of the CCP. Second, I will present research on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, which can be seen as a lab where the political tensions involving the entire “Greater China” are articulated. This research sheds light on the dynamics of political participation in general, about 1989 as well as about today.

Introduction: Erik Hornung (University of Cologne)

15:00 - 16:30 PANEL Audimax (Language: English)

VfS-Panel / Panel discussion of the Verein für Socialpolitik "Women in Economics“ Recent research in economics has documented significant hurdles that women face in advancing in an academic career. These hurdles range from differential treatment in teaching evaluations over the publishing process to tenure standards. The pane- lists will present some of this research, as well as new evidence on the share of female economics professors across European countries and institutions, with a particular focus on Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. The panel then discusses what can be done to increase the share of women in the economics discipline, and what the VfS is doing in this regard.

Panel discussion: • Guido Friebel (Goethe University Frankfurt) • Erin Hengel (University of Liverpool)

• Dorothea Kübler (WZB Berlin; Equal Opportunity Officer VfS) Tuesday • Friederike Mengel (University of Essex) Moderation: Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Chairwoman of the VfS)

65 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Tuesday, OPEN MEETING: Block E Room 9/24/2019 (Language: English)

15:00 - 16:30 E01 Political Economy III HS 13

Chair: Elisabeth Meyer (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg) 1. Cathrin Mohr (LMU Munich) Carrots and Sticks: Targeting the Opposition in an Autocratic Regime 2. Boris Brekhov (Freie Universitaet Berlin) Economic Rewards versus Economic Sanctions in International Relations 3. Elisabeth Meyer (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) Exit, voice, and the middle class

15:00 - 16:30 E02 Environmental Economy IV HS 14

Chair: Wilfried Rickels (Institut für Weltwirtschaft) 1. Felix Meier (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig); Martin Quaas (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig) Booming gas – A resource-economic theory of technological change and the order of resource extraction 2. Jan Kluge (Institut für Höhere Studien – Institute for Advanced Studies IHS); Ulrike Illmann (TU Dresden) Public Charging Infrastructure and the Market Diffusion of Electric Vehicles 3. Wilfried Rickels (Institut für Weltwirtschaft); Martin Quaas (Leipzig University); Kate Ricke (UC San Diego); Johannes Quaas (University Leipzig); Juan Moreno-Cruz (University of Waterloo); Sjak Smulders (Tilburg University) Turning the Global Thermostat—Who, When, and How Much?

15:00 - 16:30 E03 Economic Theory - Networks, HS 15 Organisations and Firms

Chair: Matthias Fahn (JKU Linz) 1. Oliver Gürtler (Universität Köln) Big Fish in Small (and Big) Ponds – A Study of Careers 2. Johannes Schneider (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) Aspiration, Inspiration and Perspiration: A Model of Dynamic Project Choice

Tuesday 3. Matthias Fahn (JKU Linz) Reciprocity in Dynamic Employment Relationships Organised Session

66 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

15:00 - 16:30 E04 Economic Theory - Contract Theory HS 16

Chair: Andreas Haufler (LMU München) 1. Roland Strausz (Humboldt Universität Berlin) Aggregate information and organizational structures 2. Jonas von Wangenheim (Humboldt Universität Berlin) Optimal information design of online marketplaces 3. Andreas Haufler (LMU München) Global income risk, performance-based contracts, and redistributive taxation Organised Session

15:00 - 16:30 E05 Applied Microeconomics I HS 17

Chair: Martin Lange (ZEW Mannheim) 1. Marc Piopiunik (ifo Institut) Predicting Choice of Math-Intensive Occupations 2. Markus Pannenberg (FH Bielefeld); Tim Friehe (Philipps-Universität Marburg) Does it really get better with age? Life-cycle patterns of confidence in Germany 3. Martin Lange (ZEW Mannheim) The Effect of Socialism on Attitudes toward Immigration

15:00 - 16:30 E06 Experimental Economics VI HS 18

Chair: Katrin Schmelz (Uni Konstanz & TWI Kreuzlingen) 1. Dominik Bauer (University of Konstanz); Irenaeus Wolff (Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut TWI/Universität Konstanz) Biases in Beliefs 2. Lukas Wenner (University of Cologne) Cursedness in Markets with Asymmetric Information: Theory and Experimental Evidence 3. Katrin Schmelz (Uni Konstanz & TWI Kreuzlingen); Anthony Ziegelmeyer (Queen's University Belfast) The Influence of State Coercion on Control Aversion Tuesday

15:00 - 16:30 E07 Behavioral Economics IV HS 19

Chair: Dmitri Bershadskyy (Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle) 1. Daniela Rützler (University of Innsbruck); Philipp Lergetporer (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) Collective intertemporal decisions: Experimental evidence on the role of group composition 2. Christoph Rößler (Philipps-Universität Marburg); Hannes Rusch (Philipps-Universität Marburg); Tim Friehe (Philipps-Uni- versität Marburg) Do norms make preferences social? Supporting evidence from the field 3. Dmitri Bershadskyy (Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle); Ehsan Othman (Otto-von-Guericke-University, Mag- deburg); Frerk Saxen (Otto-von-Guericke-University, Magdeburg) Predicting free-riding in a public good game – analysis of content and dynamic facial expressions in face-to-face commu- nication

67 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

15:00 - 16:30 E08 International Trade and Trade Reforms III S 202

Chair: Piotr Lukaszuk (Universität St. Gallen) 1. Astrid Krenz (Durham University); Holger Strulik (University of Goettingen); Klaus Prettner (University of Hohenheim) Robots, Reshoring, and the Lot of Low-Skilled Workers 2. Piotr Lukaszuk (Universität St. Gallen); Stefan Legge (University of St.Gallen) Which Factors Determine the Utilization of Preferential Tariff Rates?

15:00 - 16:30 E09 Labor Economics VIII S 203

Chair: Robert Fenge (Universität Rostock) 1. Anthony Strittmatter (University St. Gallen) What is the Value Added by using Causal Machine Learning Methods in a Welfare Experiment Evaluation? 2. Daniel Fackler (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Jens Stegmaier (Institute for Employment Research IAB); Richard Upward (University of Nottingham) The effect of job search assistance and compensation on displaced workers 3. Robert Fenge (University of Rostock); Max Friese (University of Rostock) Should unemployment insurance be centralized in a state union?

15:00 - 16:30 E10 Labor Economics - Labor Supply S 204

Chair: Adrian Chadi (University of Konstanz) 1. Philipp Jäger (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung); Matthias Giesecke (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsfor- schung) Pension Incentives and Labor Force Participation: Evidence from the Introduction of Universal Old-Age Assistance in the UK 2. Alexander M. Danzer (KU Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Carsten Feuerbaum (KU Eichstätt Ingolstadt); Fabian Gaessler (Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition) Labor Supply and Automation Innovation 3. Adrian Chadi (University of Konstanz) There Is No Place like Work

15:00 - 16:30 E11 Labor Economics IX S 205 Tuesday Chair: Michael Christl (EC JRC) 1. Marco Caliendo (Universität Potsdam) Health Effects of Labor Market Policies: Evidence from Drug Prescriptions 2. Boris Ivanov (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research); Friedhelm Pfeiffer (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for Europe- an Economic Research); Laura Pohlan (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) Well-Being and Social Integration Among Long-Term Unemployed People 3. Michael Christl (EC JRC) A Beveridge curve decomposition for Austria

68 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

15:00 - 16:30 E12 Macroeconomics - Growth II S 210

Chair: Lukas Rosenberger (LMU München) 1. Alexander Patt (Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt) Job Complexity and Economic Growth in European Regions 2. Zsofia Barany (Sciences Po); Christian Siegel (University of Kent) Engines of Sectoral Labor Productivity Growth 3. Lukas Rosenberger (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Uwe Sunde (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) Education and Enlightenment in France

15:00 - 16:30 E13 Public Economics IV S 211

Chair: Boryana Madzharova (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, FAU) 1. Marko Köthenbürger (ETH Zürich) Local Border Reforms and Economic Activity 2. Duncan Roth (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung); Gabriel Ahlfeldt (London School of Economics and Political Science); Tobias Seidel (Universität Duisburg-Essen) Germany’ national minimum wage – Implications for regional disparities 3. Boryana Madzharova (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Thiess Buettner (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Orlando Zaddach (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) The Effect of Services Deductibility on VAT Compliance

15:00 - 16:30 E14 Political Economy - Elections III S 212

Chair: Frank Rosar (Uni Bonn) 1. Lena Gerling (University of Münster); Kim Leonie Kellermann (University of Münster) The Impact of Election Information Shocks on Populist Party Preferences 2. Matthias Quinckhardt (Heidelberg University) The mechanisms of the alignment bias in a mature democracy 3. Frank Rosar (Uni Bonn) Brexit Tuesday

15:00 - 16:30 E15 Taxation III S 213

Chair: Adrian Lerche (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) 1. Arnaud Chevalier (Royal Holloway University of London); Benjamin Elsner (University College Dublin); Andreas Lichter (Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); Nico Pestel (IZA - Institute of Labor Economics) Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State 2. Hannes Fauser (Free University of Berlin) On income tax avoidance - the case of Germany revisited 3. Adrian Lerche (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) Investment Tax Credits and the Response of Firms

69 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

15:00 - 16:30 E16 Labor Economics - Migration I S 214

Chair: Paul Berbée (ZEW Mannheim) 1. Eric Schuß (Institute for Employment Research IAB); Matthias Giesecke (RWI – Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research) Heterogeneity in Marginal Returns to Language Training of Immigrants 2. Max Brüning (Maastricht University); Steffen Künn (Maastricht University) Trading off different life domains? The returns to migration 3. Paul Berbée (ZEW Mannheim); Alfred Garloff (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB); Katrin Sommerfeld (ZEW Mannheim) Regional effects of a large inflow of asylum seekers on the employment of locals

15:00 - 16:30 E17 Public Economics V S 215

Chair: Philipp Dörrenberg (University of Mannheim) 1. Anja Brumme (TU Bergakademie Freiberg) Introducing a "green" good: Implications for environmental quality and social welfare 2. Benjamin Fischer (Freie Universität Berlin); Robin Jessen (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung); Viktor Steiner (Freie Universität Berlin) Work incentives and the efficiency of tax-transfer reforms under constrained labor supply 3. Florian Buhlmann (ZEW); Philipp Dörrenberg (University of Mannheim); Benjamin Loos (University of Technology Sydney); Johannes Voget (University of Mannheim) Tax effects on the trading behavior of private investors: evidence from individual portfolio data

15:00 - 16:30 E18 Family Economics II S 220

Chair: Frederik Wiynck (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg) 1. Selina Gangl (Universität Fribourg); Martin Huber (Universität Fribourg) From housewives to employees? How mandatory kindergarten affects mothers' labour supply in Switzerland 2. Katharina Heisig (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich e.V.); Larissa Zierow (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich) The Baby Year Parental Leave Reform in the GDR and its Impact on Children’s Long-Term Outcomes 3. Frederik Wiynck (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg); Malte Sandner (Institute for Employment Research) The Fertility Effect of cutting Child related Welfare Benefits Tuesday

15:00 - 16:30 E19 Applied Microeconomics II S 221

Chair: Lukas Kiessling (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn) 1. Esther Heesemann (University of Mannheim and Center for Evaluation and Development, Mannheim); Slava Yakubenko (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) When crime hits communities: A story of fear and depression 2. David Kiss (Leibniz University Hannover); Giorgio Brunello (University of Padova) High Stakes Testing and Student Achievement 3. Lukas Kiessling (University of Bonn) Understanding parental decision-making: Beliefs about returns to parenting styles and neighborhoods

70 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

15:00 - 16:30 E20 Gender Economics II S 222

Chair: Holger Rau (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) 1. Benjamin Arold (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich); Ludger Wößmann (ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich); Larissa Zierow (ifo Institute - Leibniz Insti- tute for Economic Research at the University of Munich) Can Schools Change Religious Attitudes? Evidence from German State Reforms of Compulsory Religious Education 2. Elisabeth Grewenig (ifo Institut); Katharina Werner (ifo Institut); Philipp Lergetporer (ifo Institut); Ludger Wößmann (ifo Institut) Gender Norms and the Gender Gap in Expected Labor Market Participation during Parenthood 3. Holger Rau (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) Gender Differences in Bargaining: Evidence from a TV Show

15:00 - 16:30 E21 Fiscal Policy S 223

Chair: Mathias Klein (DIW Berlin) 1. Sebastian Weiske (German Council of Economic Experts); Mustafa Yeter (German Council of Economic Experts) An evaluation of different proposals for a European fiscal capacity 2. Oke Röhe (Deutsche Bundesbank); Nikolai Stähler (Deutsche Bundesbank) Backing the right horse: Entry versus fixed costs subsidies 3. Mathias Klein (DIW Berlin) Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times

15:00 - 16:30 E22 Empirical Industrial Organisation III S 224

Chair: Joel Stiebale (DICE / Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); 1. Matthias Muijs (University of Hohenheim); Melissa Bantle (University of Hohenheim) A New Price Test in Geographic Market Definition 2. Nils Bieschke (Technische Universität Berlin); Lukas Vorwerk (Technische Universität Berlin); Thorsten Beckers (Technische Universität Berlin); Astrid Cullmann (Technische Universität Berlin); Julia Rechlitz (Technische Universität Berlin) The relative efficiency of public and private ownership – A critical assessment of quantitative empirical studies with a focus on electricity distribution Tuesday 3. Joel Stiebale (DICE / Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); Florian Szücs (WU Wien) Mergers and the Markups of Rival Firms: Evidence from European Markets

15:00 - 16:30 E23 Macroeconomics IV S 225

Chair: Benjamin Larin (University of St.Gallen) 1. Duarte Nuno Semedo Leite (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging); Klaus Härtl (Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy Munich) The Aging-Inflation Puzzle: on the Interplay between Aging, Inflation and Pension Systems 2. Catalina Martinez Hernandez (DIW & Freie Universität Berlin) Monetary Transmission and Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area 3. Thomas Steger (Leipzig University); Volker Grossmann (University of Fribourg); Benjamin Larin (Leipzig University); Hans Torben Löfflad (Leipzig University) Distributional Effects of Surging Housing Costs under Schwabe's Law of Rent

71 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

15:00 - 16:30 E24 Industrial Organisation - Innovation and S 226 R&D IV

Chair: Jan Cornelius Peters (Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut) 1. Kehinde Medase (Friedrich-Schiller University, Jena) The Impact of the Heterogeneity of Employees’ Qualifications on Firm-level Innovation Evidence from Nigerian Firms 2. Martin Watzinger (LMU Munich); Monika Schnitzer (LMU Munich) Standing on the shoulders of science 3. Annekatrin Niebuhr (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB); Jan Cornelius Peters (Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institute); Alex Schmidke (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) Heterogeneous effects of agglomeration on firm innovation in Germany

15:00 - 16:30 E25 Labor Economics - Income Distribution and S 228 Income Inequality I

Chair: Timm Bönke (Freie Universität Berlin) 1. Martin Spindler (Universität Hamburg); Victor Chernozhukov (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Philipp Bach (Uni- versität Hamburg) Heterogeneity in the U.S. Gender Wage Gap 2. Maximilian Stockhausen (German Economic Institute) Like Father, Like Son? A Comparison of Absolute and Relative Intergenerational Labour Income Mobility in Germany and the US 3. Timm Bönke (Freie Universität Berlin); Matthias Giesecke (RWI); Holger Lüthen (Freie Universität Berlin and DIW) Blessed top and misfortunate bottom? The long-term patterns of earnings inequality and volatility in Germany since 1960

15:00 - 16:30 E26 Industrial Organisation IV S 229

Chair: Markus Reisinger (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH) 1. Johannes Paha (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen) Anchoring, Reference Prices, and List Price Collusion 2. Georg Götz (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen); Jan Schäfer (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen); Daniel Herold (Justus Liebig University Giessen) Stationary Trade and Experience Goods - The Case of Books 3. Marco Pagnozzi (University of Naples Federico II); Salvatore Piccolo (University of Bergamo); Markus Reisinger (Frankfurt Tuesday School of Finance & Management) Vertical Contracting with Endogenous Market Structure

72 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

16:45 - 18:15 PANEL Audimax (Language: German)

Panel der Lokalorganisation und der Hanns Martin Schleyer-Stiftung / Panel discussion of the Local Organisation and the Hanns Martin Schleyer-Stiftung „Marktwirtschaft, Freiheit und Wohlstand“ 30 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall ist die wirtschaftliche und politische Lage im vereinigten Deutschland instabil. Wie können Marktwirtschaft und Freiheit als Grundpfeiler von Wohlstand und Demokratie gesichert werden?

Panel-Diskussion: • Danyal Bayaz (MdB Bündnis 90/ Die Grünen) • Peter Bofinger (Universität Würzburg) • Antje Hermenau (Freie Publizistin, Dresden) • Friedrich Merz (Vizepräsident des Wirtschaftsrats der CDU e.V.) Moderation: Marc Beise (Süddeutsche Zeitung)

18:15 - 18:30 PREISVERLEIHUNG Audimax (Language: German)

Verleihung des Gustav-Stolper-Preises durch Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Vorsitzende des Vereins für Socialpolitik) Gustav Stolper Award Ceremony

Der Gustav-Stolper-Preis des Vereins für Socialpolitik soll hervorragende Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler auszeich- nen, die mit Erkenntnissen wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschung die öffentliche Diskussion über wirtschaftliche Zusam- menhänge und Probleme beeinflusst und wichtige Beiträge zum Verständnis und zur Lösung ökonomischer Probleme im internationalen Vergleich geleistet haben. Benannt ist der Preis nach dem Volkswirt Gustav Stolper (1888 - 1947). Stolper wurde im Jahr 1913 Mitherausgeber des "Öster- reichischen Volkswirts“ und machte sich in den folgenden Jahren als Gründer und Herausgeber diverser wirtschaftsjournalisti- scher Publikationen einen Namen. Als Vorstandsmitglied der Deutschen Demokratischen Partei zog er bei den Wahlen 1930 als Spitzenkandidat der neu gegrün- deten Staatspartei in den Reichstag ein. Mit der Machtergreifung Hitlers emigrierte Stolper mit seiner Familie in die USA, wo er Tuesday unter anderem als wirtschaftspolitischer Berater bei der von Herbert Hoover geleiteten Untersuchungskommission bezüglich der wirtschaftlichen Situation in Deutschland und Österreich tätig war. Über frühere Preisträger informieren Sie sich auf www.socialpolitik.org.

19:00 - 21:00 EMPFANG Neues Rathaus (Language: German) Martin-Luther-Ring 4

Empfang auf Einladung der Hanns Martin Schleyer-Stiftung / Reception on invitation of the Hanns Martin Schleyer-Foundation Begrüßung: Torsten Bonew (Bürgermeister der Stadt Leipzig) Festrede: Matthias Rößler (Präsident des Sächsischen Landtags)

73 Advertising

Gesellschaft braucht Wissenschaft. Wissenschaft braucht Daten.

Die 8. Konferenz für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsdaten 8|Konferenz (8|KSWD) ist das Austauschforum für empirische Wirtschafts- und Sozialforschung. Erhebungs- und für Sozial- und Analysemethoden, Datenquellen und Dateninfra- Wirtschaftsdaten strukturen stehen zur Debatte. Schwerpunkte der Konferenz 02.‒03. März 2020, Berlin Evidenzbasierte Politikberatung, FAIRe Registerdaten, Big Data, Datafi zierung der Gesellschaft, Kriminal- statistik, Online-Erhebungen, Innovative Zugänge zu sensiblen Daten, Datenerhebung mit Smartphone & Co

Call for Posters Call for Posters und Anmeldung: Prämierte Posterpräsentation und Elevator Pitch für www.ratswd.de/8kswd innovative Forschung mit Daten aus den Forschungs- datenzentren

Wahl der Vorschläge aus der Wissenschaft für die 7. Berufungsperiode (2020‒2023) des RatSWD Jetzt für die Wahl registrieren: www.ratswd.de/wahl

Forschungsethik in die Lehre! Der RatSWD möchte die Forschungsethik in den Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften stärker verankern.

Informationen zu Forschungsethik im Wissenschaftsalltag: Übersicht lokaler Ethikkommissionen Lehr- und Übungsmaterialien für die akademische Lehre Forschungsethische Grundsätze und Prüfverfahren in den Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Weitere Informationen: www.ratswd.de/themen/forschungsethik VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

WEDNESDAY September 25, 2019

Time Event Language Room Details G=German on page E=English

09:00 - 10:30 Open Meeting Block F & Invited Session E 78

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break Foyer

11:00 - 12:30 Open Meeting Block G E 83

12:30 - 13:45 Brown Bag Panel IWH G Foyer 86 „Ost-West-Produktivitäts-Lücke: Audimax Ursachen und Folgen“

13:45 - 14:45 Keynote III E Audimax 87 Adam Szeidl: "Media Capture through Favor Exchange: Evidence from Hun- gary"

15:00 - 16:15 ARGE-Panel „CO2-Preise und Kohleaus- D Audimax 87 stieg - ist Deutschland auf dem richti- gen Weg?“

16:15 - 16:30 Schlussworte / Closing Speech G / E Audimax 87

Schülertag: Faszination Wirtschaftswissenschaften

11:30 - 12:30 Workshops für Schüler/innen G HS 13 88 HS 14 HS 15

12:30 - 13:45 Mittagessen / Studienberatung G 88 „Wirtschaftswissenschaften“

13:45 - 14:45 Vortrag: „Wirksame Klimapolitik in G HS 9 88 einer globalisierten Welt“ Wednesday

75 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - Open Meeting Block F & Invited Session Room Page 10:30 F01 - F18

F01 Labor Economics X HS 16 78

F02 Applied Microeconomics - Housing HS 17 78

F03 Behavioral Economics V HS 18 78

F04 Macroeconomics V HS 19 79

F05 Economic Theory - Incomplete Information S 202 79 Games

F06 Labor Economics XI S 203 79

F07 Economic Theory I S 204 79

F08 Labor Economics XII S 205 80

F09 Environmental Economics V S 210 80

F10 Public Economics VI S 211 80

F11 Other I S 212 80

F12 Public Economics VII S 215 81

F13 Labor Economics - Income Distribution and S 220 81 Income Inequality II

F14 Health Economics IV S 221 81

F15 Applied Microeconomics III S 222 82

F16 Macroeconomics - Heterogeneous Agents S 224 82

F17 International Economics I S 225 82

F18 Econometrics - Forecasting II S 226 82

Invited Session of the Committee on HS 15 83 Health Economics Wednesday

76 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

11:00 - Open Meeting Block G Room Page 12:30 G01 - G11

G01 Economic Theory - Information and HS 17 83 Uncertainty

G02 Finance HS 18 83

G03 Open Economy Macroeconomics HS 19 84

G04 Economic Theory II S 204 84

G05 Empirical Finance S 215 84

G06 Other II S 220 84

G07 Other III S 221 85

G08 Econometrics S 222 85

G09 International Economics II S 224 85

G10 International Economics III S 225 85

G11 Others IV S 226 86 Wednesday

77 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Wednesday, OPEN MEETING: Block F Room 9/25/2019 (Language: English)

09:00 - 10:30 F01 Labor Economics X HS 16

Chair: Ronald Bachmann (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) 1. Christian Bredemeier (University of Cologne) Gender gaps in pay and inter-firm mobility 2. Jens Wrona (DICE / Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf); Hartmut Egger (University of Bayreuth, Department of Law and Economics); Udo Kreickemeier (University of Göttingen, Faculty of Business and Economics); Christoph Moser (Univer- sity of Nürnberg, Department of Economics and Social Sciences) Exporting and Offshoring with Monopsonistic Competition 3. Ronald Bachmann (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Gökay Demir (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Rese- arch); Hanna Frings (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research) Labour Market Polarisation and Monopsony Power Organised Session

09:00 - 10:30 F02 Applied Microeconomics - Housing HS 17

Chair: Sandra Schaffner (RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) 1. Steffen Künn (Maastricht University); Juan Palacios (Maastricht University) The Impact of Housing Quality on Health and Labor Market Outcomes: The German Reunification 2. Niklas Gohl (Universität Potsdam und DIW Berlin) House Prices and Spatial Mobility 3. Sandra Schaffner (RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung); Philipp Breidenbach (RWI - Leibniz-Institute for Econo- mic Research); Jeffrey P. Cohen (University of Connecticut) Continuation of air-services in Berlin-Tegel and its effects on housing prices

09:00 - 10:30 F03 Behavioral Economics V HS 18

Chair: Julian Hackinger (Technical University of Munich) 1. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH); Mats Köster (Düsseldorf Institute for Com- petition Economics (DICE) Salience and Skewness Preferences 2. Sarah Necker (Walter Eucken Institut); Fabian Paetzel (Helmut Schmidt Universität) Praise and Peers: Dishonesty in Repeated Competitions 3. Julian Hackinger (Technical University of Munich) Source-Dependent Preferences Wednesday

78 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 F04 Macroeconomics V HS 19

Chair: Artem Korzhenevych (Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development) 1. Pavel Brendler (University of Bonn); Arpad Abraham (European University Institute); Eva Carceles (Stony Brook University) Corporate Tax Reforms With Policy Uncertainty 2. Amer Tabakovic (Università degli Studi di Milano) Public Spending in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Technological Change - Financing Matters - 3. Artem Korzhenevych (Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development); Johannes Bröcker (Department of Economics, Kiel University) Investment subsidies and regional welfare: a dynamic framework and an application to the European regional policy

09:00 - 10:30 F05 Economic Theory - Incomplete Information S 202 Games

Chair: Christian Waibel (ETH Zürich) 1. Manuel Foerster (University of Hamburg) Strategic transmission of imperfect information 2. Christoph Schottmüller (Universität zu Köln) Why Echo Chambers are Useful 3. Fang Liu (Duesseldorf Institute for Competition Economics DICE); Alexander Rasch (Duesseldorf Institute for Competition Economics); Marco Schwarz (University of Innsbruck); Christian Waibel (ETH Zürich) The role of diagnostic ability in markets for expert services

09:00 - 10:30 F06 Labor Economics XI S 203

Chair: Stephan Lothar Thomsen (Leibniz Universität Hannover) 1. Kevin Todd (University of California, Berkeley); Jörg Heining (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) How Workplace Consolidation Affects Workers: Evidence from Acquisitions in Germany 2. Laszlo Goerke (IAAEU - Trier University); Sven Hartmann (IAAEU - Trier University) Habit Formation and Trade Unions 3. Jens Ruhose (Leibniz Universität Hannover); Stephan Lothar Thomsen (Leibniz Universität Hannover); Insa Weilage (Leib- niz Universität Hannover) Idle time before retirement: resting or studying? An evaluation of part-time work

09:00 - 10:30 F07 Economic Theory I S 204

Chair: Matthias Lang (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) Wednesday 1. Steffen Eibelshäuser (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main); David Poensgen (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main) Markov Quantal Response Equilibrium and a Homotopy Method for Computing and Selecting Markov Perfect Equilibria of Dynamic Stochastic Games 2. Lutz Arnold (Universität Regensburg) On the Neutrality of Socially Responsible Investing 3. Helmut Bester (Freie Universität Berlin); Matthias Lang (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Jianpei Li (University of International Business and Economics) Signaling versus Costly Information Acquisition

79 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 F08 Labor Economics XII S 205

Chair: Laura Pohlan (ZEW Mannheim) 1. Karolin Hiesinger (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB); Nicole Gürtzgen (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) Long-Term Sickness Absence and Dismissal Protection 2. Nicolas Apfel (University of Regensburg) Relaxing the Exclusion Restriction in Shift-Share Instrumental Variable Estimation 3. Laura Pohlan (ZEW Mannheim) Unemployment and Social Exclusion

09:00 - 10:30 F09 Environmental Economics V S 210

Chair: Elke D. Groh (Universität Kassel) 1. Carina Fugger (ZEW Mannheim); Kathrine von Graevenitz (ZEW Mannheim); Martin Kesternich (ZEW Mannheim) How important is information disclosure for firms’ purchase of carbon offsets? 2. Gunther Markwardt (Technische Universität Dresden); Lutz Hecker (Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cott- bus-Senftenberg); Frank Wätzold (Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cottbus-Senftenberg) Spotlight on spatial environmental policy spillovers 3. Daniel Engler (Universität Kassel); Elke D. Groh (Universität Kassel); Andreas Ziegler (Universität Kassel) The causal effect of religious and environmental identity on green preferences: A combined priming and stated choice experiment

09:00 - 10:30 F10 Public Economics VI S 211

Chair: Stephan Sommer (RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V.) 1. Jan Wessel (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster) Evaluating the Transport-Mode-Specific Trade Effects of Different Transport Infrastructure Types 2. Richard Franke (University of Bayreuth); Sebastian Braun (University of Bayreuth) Railways, Population Growth, and Industrialization in a Developing German Economy, 1821-1910 3. Manuel Frondel (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Stephan Sommer (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Lukas Tomberg (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research) WTA-WTP Disparity: The Role of Perceived Realism of the Valuation Setting

09:00 - 10:30 F11 Other I S 212

Chair: Heiner Schumacher (KU Leuven - University of Leuven) 1. Florian Balke (Goethe University Frankfurt); Inaki Aldasoro (BIS); Andreas Barth (Goethe University Frankfurt); Egemen Eren (BIS) Bank Competition for Wholesale Funding: Evidence from Corporate Deposits 2. Mark Andreas Weth (Deutsche Bundesbank); Miko Dötz (Deutsche Bundesbank);

Wednesday Redemptions and Asset Liquidations in Corporate Bond Funds 3. Daniel Herbold (Ernst & Young); Heiner Schumacher (KU Leuven - University of Leuven) The Agency Costs of On-the-Job Search

80 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 F12 Public Economics VII S 215

Chair: Fabian Stürmer-Heiber (LMU Munich) 1. Tim Pawlowski (University of Tübingen); Carina Steckenleiter (University of St. Gallen); Tim Wallrafen (University of Tübin- gen); Michael Lechner (University of St. Gallen) Individual labor market effects of local public expenditures on sports 2. Désirée Christofzik (Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung) Does Accrual Accounting Alter Fiscal Policy Decisions? - Evidence from Germany 3. David Koll (European University Institute); Dominik Sachs (LMU Munich); Fabian Stürmer-Heiber (LMU Munich); Hélène Turon (University of Bristol) The fiscal return to childcare policies

09:00 - 10:30 F13 Labor Economics - Income Distribution and S 220 Income Inequality II

Chair: Kerstin Ostermann (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU) 1. Maximilian Sprengholz (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin) Gender Identity and Wives' Labor Market Outcomes in West and East Germany between 1984 and 2016 2. Anja Roth (Faculty of Business and Economics at the University of Basel); Michaela Slotwinski (Faculty of Business and Economics at the University of Basel) Gender norms and income misreporting within households 3. Daniel Kühnle (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU); Michael Oberfichtner (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB); Kerstin Ostermann (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU) Gender Identity and Relative Income within Households: A critical re-examination of Bertrand, Kamenica Pan (QJE, 2015) using U.S. and German data Organised Session

09:00 - 10:30 F14 Health Economics IV S 221

Chair: Laura Birg (Universität Göttingen) 1. Daniel Kühnle (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) How effective are pictorial warnings on tobacco products? 2. Manuel Hoffmann (Texas A&M University); Roberto Mosquera (Texas A&M University); Adrian Chadi (University of Konstanz) Vaccines at Work 3. Laura Birg (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) Reference Pricing and Parallel Imports: Evidence from Germany Wednesday

81 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

09:00 - 10:30 F15 Applied Microeconomics III S 222

Chair: Roberto Roca Paz (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) 1. Anica Kramer (Universität Bamberg) Forced Migration and the Educational Attainment of Second and Third Generations 2. Roberto Roca Paz (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena); Silke Uebelmesser (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) Risk Attitudes and Migration Decisions

09:00 - 10:30 F16 Macroeconomics - Heterogeneous Agents S 224

Chair: Alexander Ludwig (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt) 1. Jochen Mankart (Deutsche Bundesbank); Alexander Ludwig (Goethe Universität); Mirko Wiederholt (Sciences Po); Jorge Quintana (Goethe Universität); Nathanael Vellekoop (Goethe Universität) House Price Expectations and Housing Choice 2. Nils Grevenbrock (European University Institute); Alexander Ludwig (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt) The Optimal Joint Design of Unemployment and Pension Insurance

09:00 - 10:30 F17 International Economics I S 225

Chair: Martin Braml (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.) 1. Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong); Sven Steinkamp (Universität Osnabrück, Institut für Empirische Wirt- schaftsforschung); Frank Westermann (Universität Osnabrück, Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung) Alternative Measures of Capital Flight towards Germany 2. Josefin Meyer (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Carmen M. Reinhart (Harvard Kennedy School); Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo 3. Martin Braml (ifo Institut - Leibniz Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V.); Gabriel Felbermayr (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) What Do We Really Know About the Transatlantic Current Account?

09:00 - 10:30 F18 Econometrics - Forecasting II S 226

Chair: Christoph Rust (Universität Regensburg) 1. Alexander Glas (Heidelberg University); Matthias Hartmann (Deutsche Bundesbank) Overconfidence versus rounding in survey-based density forecasts 2. Joao Carlos Claudio (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Katja Heinisch (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH); Oliver Holtemöller (Halle Institute for Economic Research IWH) Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: A MIDAS Approach 3. Johann Eppelsheimer (IAB); Christoph Rust (Universität Regensburg) The Geographic Reach of Human Capital Externalities Wednesday

82 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

09:00 - 10:30 Invited Session of the Committee on Health HS 15 Economics

Chair: Joachim Winter (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) 1. Annika Herr (Institute of Health Economics IHE) Minimum staffing standards and staff shortages in hospitals and long-term care 2. Daniel Wiesen (Universität zu Köln) What can we learn from behavioral experiments for health policy? 3. Joachim Winter (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) Health insurance plans: Choosing poorly and being reluctant to switch Invited Session

Wednesday, OPEN MEETING: Block G Room 9/25/2019 (Language: English)

11:00 - 12:30 G01 Economic Theory - Information and HS 17 Uncertainty

Chair: Ole Jann (CERGE-EI) 1. Markus Fels (TU Dortmund University) Risk Attitudes with State-Dependent Indivisibilities in Consumption 2. Peter-J. Jost (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management); Steffen Reik (trasmed Transport); Anna Ressi (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management) Information in a Monopolist's Credence Good Market 3. Ole Jann (Oxford University) Is Beauty Contagious? How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices

11:00 - 12:30 G02 Finance HS 18

Chair: Stefan Reitz (Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel) 1. Miriam Müting (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) International Lending: The Crisis and Its Policy Response 2. Ole Wilms (Tilburg University); Karl Schmedders (Universität Zürich); Walter Pohl (University of Bergen) Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Agents and Long-Run Risk 3. Markus Baltzer (Deutsche Bundesbank); Alexandra Koehl (Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel); Stefan Reitz (Christian-Al- brechts-Universität Kiel) Procyclical Leverage in Europe and its Role in Asset Pricing

83 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - 12:30 G03 Open Economy Macroeconomics HS 19

Chair: Gernot Müller (Universität Tübingen) 1. Thorsten Klug (Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg); Eric Mayer (Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg); Tobias Schuler (European Central Bank) The Corporate Saving Glut and the Current Account in Germany 2. Massimo Giovannini (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Stefan Hohberger (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Marco Ratto (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Lukas Vogel (European Commission - DG ECFIN) Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU 3. Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management); Francesco D’Ascanio (University of Tübingen); Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen); Johannes Pfeifer (University of Cologne) Government Spending, Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics

11:00 - 12:30 G04 Economic Theory II S 204

Chair: Philipp Weinschenk (Technische Universitaet Kaiserslautern) 1. Bernhard Kasberger (University of Oxford); Karl H. Schlag (Universität Wien) Robust Bidding in First-Price Auctions: How to Bid without Knowing what Others are Doing 2. Kai A. Konrad (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance); Marcel Thum (TU Dresden) Optimal Opacity in International Negotiations 3. Philipp Weinschenk (Technische Universität Kaiserslautern) Contract Design with Socially-Attentive Preferences

11:00 - 12:30 G05 Empirical Finance S 215

Chair: Alexandra Mitschke (Paderborn University) 1. Alexander Rieber (Ulm Universität); Steffen Schechinger (Ulm Universität) Herding Behavior between Rating Agencies 2. Christian Groß (European Central Bank, European Systemic Risk Board ESRB) Analyzing credit risk transmission to the non-financial sector in Europe: a network approach 3. Thomas Gries (Paderborn University); Alexandra Mitschke (Paderborn University) Systemic Risk from Interbank Credit Markets?

11:00 - 12:30 G06 Other II S 220

Chair: Clemens Hetschko (FU Berlin und IAB Nürnberg) 1. Michael Koch (University of Bayreuth); Ilya Manuylov (Aarhus University); Marcel Smolka (Aarhus University) Robots and Firms in a Globalized World 2. Deborah Cobb-Clark (University of Sydney); Sarah Dahmann (University of Sydney); Daniel Kamhöfer (Heinrich-Heine-Uni- versität Düsseldorf); Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch (DICE, Universität Düsseldorf) Wednesday Self-Control in a Representative Sample: Determinants, Life Outcomes, and Intergenerational Externalities 3. Clemens Hetschko (Freie Universität Berlin); Thomas Aronsson (University of Umea); Ronnie Schöb (Freie Universität Berlin) Globalization, Self-Control, and Up-Front Redistribution

84 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

11:00 - 12:30 G07 Other III S 221

Chair: Katrin Heinrichs (FernUniversität Hagen) 1. Gunther Glenk (Technische Universität München) Shared Capacity and Levelized Cost with Application to Power-to-Gas Technology 2. Matthias Göcke (JLU Gießen); Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen) Interest Rate Hysteresis in Macroeconomic Investment 3. Katrin Heinrichs (FernUniversität in Hagen) Income Distribution and Shock Transmission

11:00 - 12:30 G08 Econometrics S 222

Chair: Mario Bossler (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) 1. Matthias Kaeding (University of Duisburg-Essen) Fast Bayesian Hazard Regression Under General Censoring via Monotone P-Splines 2. Harald Tauchmann (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) Fixed Effects Estimation of the Linear Discrete-Time Hazard Model 3. Verena Monschang (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität); Bernd Wilfling (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität) Sup-ADF-style bubble detection methods under test 4. Mario Bossler (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) und LASER); Christian Westermeier (Institut für Ar- beitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) Measurement error, treatment effect dilution, and data aggregation: implications for minimum wage evaluations

11:00 - 12:30 G09 International Economics II S 224

Chair: Tobias Seidel (Universität Duisburg-Essen) 1. Michael Moritz (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB); Veronika Hecht (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufs- forschung IAB); Patricia Noska (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Johannes Schäffler (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung IAB) Types of FDI and determinants of affiliate size: the classification makes the difference 2. Kathrin Goldmann (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster); Jan Wessel (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster) TEN-T Corridors – Stairway to Heaven or Highway to Hell? 3. Tobias Seidel (Universität Duisburg-Essen); Jan Wickerath (Universität Duisburg Essen) Rush hours and urbanization

11:00 - 12:30 G10 International Economics III S 225

Chair: Katharina Mersmann (Universität Osnabrück, Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung) Wednesday 1. Pablo Anaya (Freie Universität Berlin) Balance Sheets, Currency Mismatch and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Open Economies 2. Till van Treeck (Duisburg-Essen University); Jan Behringer (Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung) The corporate sector and the current account 3. Katharina Mersmann (Universität Osnabrück, Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung); Frank Westermann (Universi- tät Osnabrück, Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung) Are Debt Sustainability Indicators Based on Time-Series-Data Useful for Predicting Crises?

85 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:00 - 12:30 G11 Others IV S 226

Chair: Florian Baumann (Universität Bonn) 1. André Diegmann (SVR Wirtschaft) Police Reorganization and Crime: Evidence from Police Station Closures 2. Timm Prein (Uni Konstanz) Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts 3. Florian Baumann (University of Bonn); Tim Friehe (Universität Marburg); Pascal Langenbach (MPI Bonn) Fines versus Liability: Experimental Evidence on Care Incentives

12:30 - 13:45 BROWN BAG PANEL Audimax (Language: German)

IWH Brown Bag Panel / Brown Bag Panel on Invitation of Halle Institute of Economic Research (IWH) „Ost-West-Produktivitätslücke: Ursachen und Folgen“ Ostdeutschlands Wirtschaft konnte anfänglich ihre Produktivität gegenüber den westdeutschen Verhältnissen rasch verbes- sern. In den 2000er Jahren gibt es jedoch nur noch geringe Fortschritte bei der Verringerung der Ost-West-Produktivitätslücke. Woran liegt das und was folgt daraus für die künftige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Ostdeutschland? Persönlichkeiten aus der Wissenschaft und der unternehmerischen Praxis diskutieren darüber in einem Panel. Sie nehmen be- triebliche und regionale Treiber der Produktivität, aber auch hemmende Faktoren in den Blick, diskutieren die aktuellen Heraus- forderungen in ostdeutschen Unternehmen und erörtern, was die Politik tun sollte, damit Ostdeutschland wirtschaftlich weiter vorankommt. Panel-Diskussion: • Lutz Bellmann (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung – IAB – der Bundesagentur für Arbeit) • Reint E. Gropp (IWH / Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg) • Cornelia Jahnel (Verband deutscher Unternehmerinnen) • Alexandra Spitz-Oener (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) • Jens Südekum (Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf) Moderation: Gerald Meyer (rbb) Wednesday

86 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

13:45 - 14:45 KEYNOTE LECTURE III Audimax (Language: English)

Vortrag der Kerntagung / Keynote Lecture Adam Szeidl (Central European University Budapest): "Media Capture through Favor Exchange: Evidence from Hungary" Political distortions to media freedom limit government accountability and may assist the rise of autocracy. But can such dis- tortions emerge in the shadow of democratic institutions? If they can, how do they emerge, and what are their economic costs? Answering these questions can shed light on the sources and mechanisms of autocratic drift. In our research, we study two-way favors between the government and the media in Hungary between 1994 and 2016. We establish two main results. (1) We document large advertising favors from the government to connected media, and large favors in content - concealing corruption news - from connected media to the government. To establish causal effects, we exploit changes in government, changes in media ownership, and a fallout between a media owner and the government to rule out standard market-based explanations. (2) We develop a structural model to distinguish between two political explanations for providing content favors: the financial motive of attracting advertising favors and the pro-government ideology of the media owner. Exploiting within-owner chan- ges in the government's advertising budget we find that the financial motive was more important, implying that the govern- ment substantially affected media content through advertising favors. Our model also implies that the lure of advertising favors should motivate pro-government investors to buy additional media, a prediction consistent with the data. Introduction: Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Chairwoman of the Verein für Socialpolitik)

15:00 - 16:15 PANEL Audimax (Language: German)

Panel-Diskussion der ARGE-Institute / Panel Discussion of the ARGE Institutes „CO2-Preise und Kohleausstieg – ist Deutschland auf dem richtigen Weg?“ Panel-Diskussion: • Karsten Neuhoff (DIW Berlin) • Sonja Peterson (Institut für Weltwirtschaft, IfW Kiel) • Karen Pittel (ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München) Moderation: Achim Wambach (ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung)

16:15 - 16:30 SCHLUSSWORT / CLOSING Audimax (Language: German and English)

Schlusswort / Closing Speech Wednesday Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Chairwoman of the Verein für Socialpolitik)

87 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

11:30 - 16:30 VERANSTALTUNG: Faszination Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Language: German)

SCHÜLERTAG / STUDENTS’ DAY „Faszination Wirtschaftswissenschaften“ für SchülerInnen/Studieninteressierte/StudienanfängerInnen Im Rahmen der Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft“ haben Schü- ler/innen am 25. September 2019 die Möglichkeit, Vorträge von Professoren/innen zu aktuellen Themen zu besuchen. Sie erhal- ten einen ersten Eindruck von der Universität Leipzig und in das wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Studium. Wir danken der Joachim Herz Stiftung für ihre freundliche Unterstützung.

11:30 - 12:30 WORKSHOPS HS 13, HS 14, HS 15

• Justus Haucap (Universität Düsseldorf) „Was steuert die Datenökonomie“ • Theresia Theurl (Universität Münster) „Die Zukunft der EU“ • Gunther Schnabl (Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik / Universität Leipzig) „Finanzmarktspekulation und Finanzkrisen“

12:30 - 13:45 MITTAGESSEN

Möglichkeit zum Besuch der Studienberatung „Wirtschaftswissenschaften“

13:45 - 14:45 VORTRAG HS 9

Gabriel Felbermayr (Präsident des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft): „Wirksame Klimapolitik in einer globalisierten Welt“

15:00 - 16:15 PANEL Audimax

Möglichkeit der Teilnahme an der

Wednesday Podiumsdiskussion mit den Wissenschaftler/innen der großen deutschen Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute (ARGE)

88 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy" Conference Subsidy Programme CONFERENCE SUBSIDY PROGRAMME 2019

The Verein für Socialpolitik promotes an international presence of young scientists with a subsidy of 500 € for presentations at prestigious international conferences. The lecture subsidies have been financed by donations provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Schweizerische Nationalbank. The lecture subsidies are allocated mid December, therefore a commitment for a subsidy is not possible before that date. To be eligible to receive a subsidy, you must meet the following conditions: 1. You must fulfill the eligibility requirements listed below. 2. You must submit an application. 3. Your application must be approved.

Eligibility for subsidies To be eligible, the following criteria must be met: 1. The applicant is a member of the Verein für Socialpolitik since at least 30th April this year. 2. The applicant meets the requirements to pay the reduced fee. 3. The programme is for members of the Verein für Socialpolitik who work or are enrolled at an academic institution in Germany, Austria or Switzerland as a doctoral student, a post doc or pursue a habilitation. 4. A lecture was given this year at one of the listed international conferences. Poster pre- sentations cannot be supported. 5. One author can receive funds only once for the presentation of the same paper. 6. If the same author presents another paper, this paper presentation is separately eligib- le for funding, if the presentation does not take place at the same conference. 7. Presentations of the same paper by a co-author are also separately eligible for funding. If insufficient funding is available for all applicants, the beneficiaries of the subsidy will be decided by a lottery. Application form: https://www.socialpolitik.de/De/vortragspraemienprogramm or https://www.socialpolitik.de/En/conference-subsidy-program Applications must be submitted by 31 October 2019 via e-mail to: [email protected].

89 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

EXHIBITORS in alphabetical order

Economic research institutes and international publishers present themselves during the annual meeting in the foyer. Exhibitors / Sponsors Exhibitors

90 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

CORPORATE MEMBERS Exhibitors / Sponsors

The Verein für Socialpolitik wishes to thank its corporate members and promoters.

Central Banks:

Federal Ministries:

Great Partner Institutes:

91 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Partner Institutes: Exhibitors / Sponsors Exhibitors

92 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy" Exhibitors / Sponsors

Supporting Institutes:

Hessische Staatskanzlei

Further Scientific Institutions and Organisations: • Helmut-Schmidt-Universität / Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg • Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität Tübingen • Philipps-Universität Marburg • Universitätsbibliothek Regensburg

Foundations and Associations: • Bundesverband deutscher Banken • Bundesverband deutscher Volks- und Betriebswirte e.V. • Deutscher Sparkassen- und Giroverband • Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag • Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung • Industrie- und Handelskammer Karlsruhe • Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung • Südwestfälische Industrie- und Handelskammer zu Hagen

Supporters in the Private Economy: • DekaBank AG

93 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

SPONSORS AND SUPPORTERS in alphabetical order

We thank our sponsors and supporters for their generous support: Exhibitors / Sponsors Exhibitors

Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) - 428925943.

94 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Chair of the Scientific Programme Committee of the Open Meeting, Daniel Krähmer, thanks the committee Axel Dreher, Ester Faia, Christina Gathmann, Peter Haan, Christoph Kucmicz, Johannes Münster, Markus Reisinger, Melanie Schienle, Karl Schmedders, Nora Szech, Christoph Trebesch and the following colleagues for their support: Acknowledgements

photo: Daniel Krähmer

Silke Anger Christoph Grosse Steffen Lukas Menkhoff Moritz Schularick Loukas Balafoutas Gyözö Gyöngyösi Alex Meyer-Gohde Julian Schumacher Toman Barsbai Carsten Hefeker Katharina Michaelowa Malte Schumacher Florian Baumann Paul Heidhues Marc Möller Nicolas Schutz Daniel Baumgarten Tim Hellmann Ole Monscheuer Nikolaus Schweizer Johannes Becker Fabian Herweg Daniel Müller Marta Serra-Garcia Özlem Bedre-Defolie Roland Hodler Nick Netzer Thomas Siedler Kenza Benhima Hajo Holzmann Jan Sebastian Nimczik Dana Sisak Francesco Berlingieri Eva Hoppe Hans-Theo Normann Martin Spindler Christine Binzel Cecilia Hornok Robert Nuscheler Florian Stahl Sebastian Braun Matthias Hunold Axel Ockenfels Jan Henrik Steg Jeannette Brosig-Koch Marcela Ibanez Diaz Yarema Okhrin Andreas Steinmayr Eduard Brüll Ingo Isphording Harry Paarsch Holger Stichnoth Yu Cheng Eckhard Janeba Monica Pia Paiella Tobias Stöhr Christian Conrad Heiko Karle Jose Parra Moyano Holger Strulik Giuliano Curatola Sebastian Kessing Andreas Peichl Gaspare Tortorici Natalia Danzer Krisztina Kis-Katos Vincenzo Pezone Carsten Trenkler Ghislain-Herman Demeze-Jouatsa Christian Klamler Pia Pinger Silke Uebelmesser Lena Dräger Stephan Klasen Nadine Riedel Arne Uhlendorff Tomaso Duso Annette Krauss Johannes Rincke Michael Vogt Daniel Eckert Udo Kreickemeier Christoph Rothe Andreas Wagener Matthias Fahn Alexander Kriwoluzky Armin Rott Felix Weinhardt Walter Farkas Dorothea Kübler Marco Runkel Georg Weizsäcker Bernd Fitzenberger Daniel Kühnle Marc Sachon Dominik Wied Lisandra Flach Philipp Külpmann Marco Sahm Ole Wilms Egon Franck Christoph Kuzmics Philip Sauré Johannes Wohlfart Markus Frölich Michael Kvasnicka Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch Matthias Wrede Andreas Fuchs Mario Larch Marco Schmäh Katharina Wrohlich Ingo Geishecker Vivien Lewis Klaus Schmidt Ulrich Zierahn Olga Goldfayn-Frank Roman Liesenfeld Philipp Schmidt-Dengler Larissa Zierow Robert Göx Alexander Ludwig Hendrik Schmitz Christine Zulehner Terry Gregory Jan Marcus Armin Schmutzler Michael Greinecker Baptiste Massenot Ronnie Schöb

95 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Annual Conference 2020 Gender Economics of the September 27 - 30, 2020 / University of Cologne Verein für Socialpolitik e.V. in Cologne

The annual conference consists of a core conference with invited lectures on “Gender Economics” and of an open meeting with mixed topics. Presentations and “Organised Sessions” on the open meeting may be proposed from all fields of economics. Interested researchers are invited to provide contributions by following the instructions on the homepage of the association. Deadline for all submissions is March 1, 2020. The submissions are evaluated by anonymous referees and subsequently selected by the Programme Committee. The decision of accep- tance may be expected until May 15, 2020. Membership in the Verein für Socialpolitik and acceptance of its code of ethics are required for presenting at the annual conference. The membership can be sought on the homepage of the association, after the acceptance of the contribution. Accepted contributions will be published in the online publication database EconStor of the German National Library for Economic Science - Leibniz-Information-Center Economy as a part of the collection of all VfS conference contributions. An ulterior publication by the Verein für Socialpolitik is not provided.)

Scientific Programme Committee – Core Conference: DOROTHEA KÜBLER (WZB / TU Berlin)

Scientific Programme Committee – Open Meeting: DAVIDE CANTONI (LMU Munich) CHAIRMAN

Christine Binzel (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) Nadja Dwenger (University of Hohenheim) Christina Felfe (University of Wuerzburg) Martin Halla (JKU Linz) Fabian Herweg (University of Bayreuth) Holger Herz (University of Fribourg) Sebastian Krautheim (University of Passau) Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn) Alexandra Niessen-Ruenzi (University of Mannheim) Uta Pigorsch (University of Wuppertal)

Local Organisation: ERIK HORNUNG ALEXANDER WESTKAMP (University of Cologne)

96 VfS Annual Conference 2019 "30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Democracy and Market Economy"

97 VfS-Jahrestagung 2019 „30 Jahre Mauerfall – Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft”

Notizen/Notes:

98 Advertising

ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, 20354 Hamburg www.100jahre.zbw.eu Öffnungszeiten: Mo–Fr 9–20 Uhr All information may be subject to change. Please check regularly for the latest version:

To the Conference Schedule To the Conference App

To the Programme Overview

Impressum Redaktion: Geschäftsstelle des Vereins für Socialpolitik Satz und Layout: Caroline Tomanik, die-satzmanufaktur.at Druck: Seltersdruck & Verlag Lehn GmbH & Co. KG Redaktionsschluss: 04.09.2019