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ON the DYNAMICS of RADICAL-RIGHT PARTIES in EUROPE by Nicolas Dimitri Tewfik Bichay

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ON the DYNAMICS of RADICAL-RIGHT PARTIES in EUROPE by Nicolas Dimitri Tewfik Bichay FROM RISE TO RULE: ON THE DYNAMICS OF RADICAL-RIGHT PARTIES IN EUROPE By Nicolas Dimitri Tewfik Bichay A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Political Science|Doctor of Philosophy 2021 ABSTRACT FROM RISE TO RULE: ON THE DYNAMICS OF RADICAL-RIGHT PARTIES IN EUROPE By Nicolas Dimitri Tewfik Bichay Why have we seen such a dramatic rise of radical-right parties recently, and what have the consequences been? This dissertation traces the three main stages of the rising radical- right: first, how have they been succeeding in elections? Second, after winning election, why is their participation in government coalitions becoming more common? And third, what have the substantive effects of this government participation been on the quality and stability of liberal democracy? I begin by examining the dynamics of the radical-right's electoral success in relation to the rising trend of publicly funding electoral campaigns at the national level. While public financing is often thought of as a way to \level the playing field” of elections, I argue that such policies have had unintended second-order consequences by disproportionately aiding the rise radical-right parties. I further demonstrate that this public funding policy severs the tie of radical-right performance to economic growth. This is a counter-intuitive result, as public campaign finance is often considered a priority of the left to restore power to the majority, and yet, it seems to aid those on the right fringes of the political spectrum. Given this increased electoral success, chapter two investigates why these parties have found themselves in more and more governing coalitions recently. Until now, the literature was without a succinct explanation for why this is occurring|instead characterizing the trend as \politics as usual." I develop a new theory characterizing such moves as the co- optation of a growing political rival in an effort to minimize electoral threat. That is, as the radical platform rises in salience, and radical parties are more threatening to the electoral success of a moderate party, they will invite the party into their government, thereby staving off said threat. Finally, I look at the impacts of said coalitions on liberal democracy. While many argue radical-right parties to be one of the largest contemporary threats to democracy, the evidence remains largely anecdotal. I empirically demonstrate that the implications of a growing radical-right are far more severe than previously assumed. Besides being the source of a potential for democratic breakdown when they take power, radical-right parties bring with them real decreases in the level of liberal democracy not only when holding executive control, but also as they merely participate in government coalitions. The specific effects differ depending on the type of power held. When holding the prime ministership, we see significant deteriorations to both institutional constraints on the executive and mass civil liberties. When limited to junior coalition-partner status, we only see the latter affected. Overall, this dissertation aims to trace the three stages of the rising radical-right phenomenon. It begins with a study on how they win elections, moves to an analysis of their entrance into ruling coalitions, and ends with an investigation of the effects of this rise on liberal democracy. Copyright by NICOLAS DIMITRI TEWFIK BICHAY 2021 To my Nona, for always inspiring me. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I have had the great opportunity to draft this dissertation while traveling to several beautiful places (which, to any comparativist, is simply called `working'). I have especially fond memories of crafting the first (very) rough draft of chapter two in several Danish coffee shops throughout Aarhus, and dramatically redrafting chapter one at a beach bar in Agia, Greece (chapter three, rather unimpressively, was mostly drafted in my office in East Lansing). But, it is not all fun and games (it is probably less than 5% fun and games). Unique to my fellow class of graduates this year, and quite stress-inducing at the time, much of the work at the end was conducted in the quarantine lockdown in response to the COVID- 19 global pandemic. Thus, I am especially grateful to everyone for offering such help and support during such stressful and uncertain times. I could not have ever hoped to cross the finish line had it not been for all these wonderful people. First and foremost, my most sincere thanks goes to my parents. Throughout my whole life they have offered nothing but love and support. Thank you for your lifetime of guidance, encouragement, and reassurance of my ability to do things I was certain I couldn't. They offered counsel when I felt lost, inspiration when I felt dispirited, and perhaps most importantly, box-loads of food when I needed them most. Without you both, I am certain I would never be here. Second, to my wonderful siblings, Tina, Alexi, and Keith. You can't pick your family|but I am certain you three would be my choice if you could. Our late nights of laughter whilst listening to the same Paul Simon record 15 times in-a-row gave me the energy needed to complete this. I thank the three of you for your love, laughter, and words of encouragement. I have, above all else, been blessed with a large, loud|perhaps obnoxious|but always loving, supportive, and hilarious Greek-Egyptian family and I cannot thank everyone enough for the role they played. I was lucky enough to work in a department full of friendly and collaborative col- leagues. I thank Caleb Lucas, Jonathan King, Nate Smith, Shane Wery, and Crystal Williams vi for their friendship and encouragement. I want to give an extra special thank you to Stephen Anderson and Marcella McCalmont for becoming two of my best friends. Our late night study sessions kept me prepared, while our frequent trips to The Peanut Barrel and Los Tres Amigos kept me sane. I give Steve special recognition for putting up with me as an office-mate for six years and pretending that I don't talk to myself \that much." Without him, this dissertation would be riddled with typos and nonsensical sentence structures. I truly feel as though I hit the academic jackpot with my dissertation committee. Eric Chang, Erica Frantz, and Cory Smidt have been extraordinarily generous with both their time and wisdom, and I thank them for their always helpful input that has no doubt made me a better scholar. I have to give a very very large thank you to my wonderful advisor, Christian Houle. He guided me through this process ensuring I never felt lost, overwhelmed, or like I could not make it through. Thank you for being always willing to share your advice and experience, for reading roughly 30 drafts of each of my papers, and for constantly being one of the nicest, friendliest people I have met. You, along with my entire committee, truly made my graduate experience much more enjoyable than it had any right to be. Fortunately for me Michigan State is very much not the department where guidance stops with your committee, and as such I want to give a sincere thanks to the rest of the faculty, especially Shahryar Minhas, for always being willing to help and offer comments on ongoing research. I also want to thank the wonderful department of political science at Grand Valley, and especially my undergraduate mentor John Constantelos, for first interesting me in academia, and for guiding me through the graduate admissions process. Last, but most certainly not least, a very loving thank you to my wonderful partner Elizabeth. You pulled double duty over the last couple years offering endless support both emotionally and academically. You are always the first to read a new draft of my work, and the first to cheer me up when I need it most. I appreciate your frequent insistences that, perhaps I should practice my talk, when I was convinced \winging it" would be just fine. Thank you for being my biggest supporter. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . x LIST OF FIGURES . xii INTRODUCTION . 1 CHAPTER 1 PUBLIC CAMPAIGN FINANCING AND THE RISE OF RADICAL-RIGHT PARTIES . 7 1.1 Introduction . 7 1.2 The Rise of Radical Parties Over Time . 10 1.3 Theoretical Framework . 14 1.3.1 Why the Right? . 18 1.4 Data and Methodology . 20 1.4.1 Measurement . 20 1.4.2 Model . 23 1.4.3 Time-trends . 26 1.5 Results . 27 1.5.1 Robustness Checks . 33 1.6 Motivating Case: Austria . 34 1.7 Conclusion . 36 CHAPTER 2 COALITION AS COOPTATION: THE RADICAL-RIGHT'S ENTRANCE TO GOVERNMENT . 39 2.1 Introduction . 39 2.2 Coalition Formation in Europe . 41 2.2.1 The Costs of Radical Parties in Coalition Government . 42 2.3 Radical Cooptation . 44 2.3.1 Coalition Invitation and Acceptance . 46 2.4 Measuring Platform Salience . 48 2.5 Data and Methodology . 51 2.6 Results . 55 2.6.1 Additional Direct Tests . 59 2.7 Comparing Out-of-Sample Prediction of Different Theories . 62 2.8 Conclusion . 65 CHAPTER 3 RADICAL-RIGHT PARTIES AND THE DETERIORATION OF LIBERAL DEMOCRACY . 68 3.1 Introduction . 68 3.2 The Influence of Radical-Right Parties . 71 3.2.1 The Radical-Right and Liberal Democracy . 72 3.3 Radical-Right Impact on Liberal Democracy . 75 3.4 Data and Modeling Strategy . 81 viii 3.5 Results . 85 3.5.1 Effects of Radical-Right Coalitions . 89 3.5.2 Robustness Checks . 92 3.6 Conclusion . 95 CONCLUSION . 99 APPENDICES . 103 APPENDIX A APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 1 .
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