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On the Role of Oil in the Growth Process of the Arab Gulf

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On the Role of Oil in the Growth Process of the Arab Gulf Master’s Degree in Global Development and Entrepreneurship Final Thesis On the role of oil in the growth process of the Arab Gulf Supervisor Ch. Prof. Antonio Paradiso Graduand Sara Idda 853857 Academic Year 2018 / 2019 2 On the role of oil in the growth process of the Arab Gulf 3 A mia mamma e mio papà, che mi hanno insegnato ad essere forte nel rialzarmi dopo ogni caduta, ad avere il coraggio di vincere ogni sfida, dedico questo mio traguardo! Acknowledgments First of all, I would like to thank Professor Antonio Paradiso, the supervisor of my thesis, for his great availability and professionalism in these months of work and for always encouraging me; I also thank Prof. Silvia Vianello who has been a strong inspiration for me and a source of valuable advice. 4 Summary Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 9 1. Macroeconomic overview with some background about countries under-study: United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. .................................................................................................. 11 1.1 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: A brief focus on the principal points deal with ....................... 11 1.1.1 Some background of United Arab Emirates ............................................................... 12 1.1.2 The discovery of black gold ........................................................................................ 13 1.1.3 From the new oil boom to the Arab revolts of 2011 ................................................. 14 1.1.4 General political and institutional plan ...................................................................... 14 1.1.5 The competitive advantage of UAE ............................................................................ 15 1.1.6 Macroeconomic framework ....................................................................................... 16 1.1.7 Political economy ....................................................................................................... 17 1.1.8 Sectors of opportunity: infrastructure and construction ........................................... 19 1.1.9 Trade agreements ...................................................................................................... 20 1.1.10 Elements that attracts investments ......................................................................... 21 1.2 SAUDI ARABIA: Introductive notes .................................................................................... 22 1.2.1 From the second Saudi State (1824-1891) to the founding of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (1932) ....................................................................................................................... 22 1.2.2 Lights and shadows on the Saudi Kingdom in the second half of the 1900s: the policies of dissent (1953-1982) ........................................................................................... 23 1.2.3 From wealth to austerity: the kingdoms of Fahd and 'Abd Allāh (1982-2015) .......... 24 1.2.4 The pragmatism of King Salmān for Saudi Arabia ...................................................... 25 1.2.5 The rise to power of the crown prince Muḥammad Bin Salmān ............................... 26 1.2.6 Saudi Arabia's economic policy .................................................................................. 28 1.2.7 The first oil boom (1973-1981) .................................................................................. 30 1.2.8 The end of the oil boom: the 1980s ........................................................................... 32 1.2.9 The economic crisis of the 1990s and the stagnation of oil prices ............................ 34 1.2.10 The second oil boom (2003-2007) ........................................................................... 34 1.2.11 King Salmān's policy and financial risks in light of the last two-year reforms ......... 35 1.3 KUWAIT: The power of a small fortress ............................................................................ 37 1.3.1 Secularization process ................................................................................................ 37 1.3.2 Course of events from the 16th century .................................................................... 38 1.3.3 British supremacy and the advent of the oil age ....................................................... 38 1.3.4 Independence: nationalization of the Kuwait Oil Company (Q8) .............................. 39 5 1.3.5 1991, Gulf War ........................................................................................................... 39 1.3.6 The Second Gulf War .................................................................................................. 41 1.3.7 State, institutions and generalities of the country..................................................... 42 1.3.8 Focal points of the Kuwait economy .......................................................................... 43 1.3.9 Anachronistic aspects and contradictions within the cult of Kuwait ......................... 45 1.3.10 Succession in the Gulf, Kuwait: reforms and neutrality, the challenges of the next emir ..................................................................................................................................... 46 1.4 The Islamic economic-financial model .............................................................................. 49 1.4.1 The origins of Islamic finance: Sharīʿa ........................................................................ 51 1.4.2 Prohibitions and duties in Islamic business ................................................................ 52 1.4.3 Al rib푎: prohibition of interest ................................................................................... 53 1.4.4 Al gharār: prohibition of information asymmetry ..................................................... 55 1.4.5 Al maysir: the ban on gambling and speculation ....................................................... 56 1.4.6 Other prohibited residual elements ........................................................................... 57 1.4.7 Al zakāt: obligation to give alms ................................................................................ 57 2. SOLOW MODEL ....................................................................................................................... 59 2.1 Economic growth: the Solow model ................................................................................. 59 2.1.1 Textbook’s open economy framework ...................................................................... 59 2.1.1.1 Technological and demographical progress and its effects, including the demographic aspect ............................................................................................................ 60 2.1.1.2 The steady state and the tendency to the steady state: theoretical considerations ............................................................................................................................................. 61 2.1.1.3 Growth and steady state in the presence of technological progress ..................... 62 2.1.1.4 Savings and amortization: the accumulation of capital .......................................... 63 2.1.1.5 The implications of the Solow’s model of convergence ......................................... 65 2.1.2 Growth theory considering oil exports ...................................................................... 69 2.1.3 Long-term output equation for oil-exporting economies .......................................... 70 2.1.4 Summing up the above .............................................................................................. 70 2.2 Elaboration of the model .................................................................................................. 71 2.3 Simulation of model .......................................................................................................... 73 2.4 Analysis of Regression model per country ........................................................................ 77 2.4.1 Regression model of United Arab Emirates ............................................................... 78 2.4.2 Regression model of Saudi Arabia .............................................................................. 80 2.4.3 Regression model of Kuwait ....................................................................................... 82 3. FORECASTS: The growth strategies of the Gulf countries ....................................................... 83 6 3.1 UAE forecasts: ................................................................................................................... 84 3.1.1 “Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050” .......................................................................... 84 3.1.2.VISION 2021 ............................................................................................................... 86 3.1.3 EXPO 2020 .................................................................................................................. 90 3.2 SAUDI ARABIA forecasts: ................................................................................................... 94 3.2.1 Vision 2030 ................................................................................................................. 94 3.2.2 The strategy and objectives for 2020: Investing in the quality of life ...................... 101
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