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Chancen Der Fleischvermarktung in Den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten

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Chancen Der Fleischvermarktung in Den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten Herausgeber Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Chancen Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz (BMELV) Wilhelmstr. 54 der Fleischvermarktung 10117 Berlin in den VAE Ansprechpartner Referat 426 (Absatzförderung, Qualitätspolitik) Rochusstraße 1 53123 Bonn Tel.: +49-(0)30-18529-4654 Text Produkt + Markt Otto-Lilienthal-Straße 15 49134 Wallenhorst Tel.: +49 (05407) 885 218 Fax: +49 (05407) 885 244 E-Mail: [email protected] Internet: www.ProduktundMarkt.de Foto/Bildnachweis BLE/www.oekolandbau.de/Thomas Stephan Umschlagsgestaltung design_idee, büro_für_gestaltung, Erfurt Druck BMELV, Juni 2010 Weitere Informationen fi nden Sie im Internet unter www.bmelv.de oder www.agrarexportfoerderung.de Das Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist für den Inhalt der Studie nicht verantwortlich. Es werden ausschließlich Meinungen und Auffassungen des Verfassers wiedergegeben. BBMELV_Bro_US_Studien_zD.inddMELV_Bro_US_Studien_zD.indd 33-4-4 225.05.105.05.10 110:490:49 copyright Chancen der Fleischvermarktung in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten Erstellt von Produkt + Markt für das Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz Inhaltsverzeichnis Seite 1. Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Länderüberblick ............................................................................. 2 1.1 Volkswirtschaftliche Entwicklung ................................................................................. 2 1.1.1 Allgemeine Wirtschaftsdaten................................................................................ 2 1.1.2 BIP-Entwicklung und gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung...................................... 4 1.1.3 Bevölkerungsentwicklung..................................................................................... 6 1.1.4 Einkommensverteilung......................................................................................... 8 1.1.5 Infrastrukturentwicklung ....................................................................................... 9 1.2 Kernsektoren der Volkswirtschaft .............................................................................. 11 1.3 Allgemeine Wirtschaftspolitik..................................................................................... 14 1.4 Außenhandelspolitik.................................................................................................. 17 1.4.1 Importabwicklung ............................................................................................... 17 1.4.2 Dokumente für den Import.................................................................................. 19 2. Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft...................................................................................... 21 2.1 Landwirtschaft........................................................................................................... 21 2.2 Nahrungsmittelverarbeitung ...................................................................................... 25 2.3 SWOT Analyse der V.A.E. Ernährungswirtschaft ...................................................... 31 2.4 Entwicklung des Lebensmittelnachfrage.................................................................... 32 2.4.1 Trends in der Nahrungsmittelnachfrage ............................................................. 34 2.4.2 Entwicklung der Nachfrage nach tierischen Produkten....................................... 35 2.5 Strukturen der Vermarktung von Lebensmitteln......................................................... 38 2.6 Agraraußenhandel .................................................................................................... 47 3. Potenziale für den Export von Fleisch und Fleischerzeugnissen ...................................... 56 3.1 Identifizierung zukünftiger Potenziale ........................................................................ 56 3.2 Einschätzung der Chancen deutscher Lieferanten .................................................... 60 3.3 Vorschläge zur Absatzförderung ............................................................................... 64 Chancen der Fleischvermarktung in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, 2009 - 1 - 1. Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Länderüberblick 1.1 Volkswirtschaftliche Entwicklung 1.1.1 Allgemeine Wirtschaftsdaten Staatsform Föderation (Ittihad) von sieben autonomen Emiraten Bezeichnung Al-Imarat al Arabiya al-Muttahida Kurzform V.A.E. Verfassung von 1971 Fläche 77.700 km 2 (83.600 km 2 mit Inseln) Verwaltung Sieben Emirate: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ras al-Khaima, Fujara, Umm al Qaiwain und Ajman Politisches System Patriachalisches Präsidialsystem mit traditionellen Konsultationsme- chanismen, höchstes Föderationsorgan ist der Oberste Rat, der von den Herrschern der einzelnen Emirate gebildet wird. Abu Dhabi und Dubai besitzen Vetorechte. Der Oberste Rat wählt aus seinen Reihen den Präsidenten, legt die Richtlinien der Politik fest, formuliert und rati- fiziert Gesetze. Regierung und Regierungschef werden vom Präsiden- ten für 5 Jahre ernannt. Die 4 mal jährlich tagende Nationalversammlung aus 40 Mitgliedern, die von den Emiraten für jeweils zwei Jahre ernannt werden, hat bera- tende Funktion. Frauen sind gleichberechtigt und haben das Wahl- recht. Staatsoberhaupt Scheich Chalifa Ibn Sajid al-Nahajan (seit 2004) Regierungschef Scheich Mohammed Ibn Raschid al-Maktum (seit 2006) Rechtssystem Duales System aus Sharia und ziviler Gerichtsbarkeit Bevölkerung Einwohner 4,5 Mio., davon rund 80% Ausländer Bevölkerungsdichte 63 Einwohner pro km 2 Bevölkerungswachs- 3,7% stark steigend tum Chancen der Fleischvermarktung in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, 2009 - 2 - Städtische Bevölke- 78% rung Altersstruktur 0-14 Jahre: 20%, 15-64 Jahre: 79%, 65 und mehr Jahre: 1%; Median: 30 Jahre Religion Islam (Staatsreligion; zu 96% Sunniten und Schiiten) Ausländer praktizieren ihre Religion ungehindert Städte/Häfen Größte Städte (in Abu Dhabi (Hauptstadt, 860), Dubai (1.450), Sharjah (946) 1.000 Einwohner) Haupthäfen Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Jebal Dhanna, Khor Fakhan, Sharjah Zollflughäfen Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Fujaira, Ras al-Khaima, Sharjah Wirtschaft Währungseinheit 1 Dirham (AED) = 100 Fils ISO-Code AED Wechselkurs (Parität 3,68 AED = 1 US$ fest an US$ gebun- den) BIP 2008 262 Mrd. US$ BIP pro Kopf 2008 44.600 US$ Geschäftssprache Arabisch, Englisch Mitgliedschaften WTO, Arabische Liga (AL), Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), OPEC, UN Länderbonität (Institu- März 2007: Rang 30, Bonitätsindex 75,6 tional Investor) Quellen CIA – The World Factbook, ixpos Chancen der Fleischvermarktung in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, 2009 - 3 - Karte der Verwaltungsregionen der V.A.E. 1.1.2 BIP-Entwicklung und gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung Das BIP der V.A.E. weist jährliche Wachstumsraten im hohen einstelligen Bereich über viele Jahre auf. Das BIP/Kopf liegt bei 43.000 US$. Prognosen für die Entwicklung in 2009 vor dem Hintergrund der Finanzkrise gehen auseinander: Während die SEB Bank zur Jahresmitte 2009 für 2009 zwar von einem Rückgang der Wachstumsrate aber immer noch von einem geringen Wachstum ausgeht, erwarten die Analysten bei Business Monitor International noch im Sep- tember, dass die Wirtschaft der V.A.E. 2009 um 2,8% schrumpft. Beide Experten gehen jedoch von einer schnellen Erholung aus. Bereits in 2010 soll das Wachstum wieder über 2% liegen. Chancen der Fleischvermarktung in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, 2009 - 4 - Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate 300 12,0% * 253 266 9,7% 239 * 9,4% 10,0% 8,2% 199 202 200 7,0% 8,0% $ S 7,7% U . 6,0% d 170 r M 132 n * I 100 105 * 3,0% 4,0% 2,5% 0,8% 2,0% 0 0,0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 BIP Jahr Wachstum BIP (real in %) 37 Chancen der Fleischvermarktung in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, Dezember 2009 Quelle: SEB Merchant Bank, 2009 Makroökonomischer Ausblick vor dem Hintergrund der Weltwirtschaftskrise: Die wirtschaftliche Krise hat auch die V.A.E. sehr stark getroffen. Die starke weltwirtschaftliche Vernetzung des Landes zusammen mit den hohen fiskalischen Ressourcen werden dem Land jedoch ermöglichen, schnell auf einen Erfolgungspfad zu gelangen. Bereits für 2010 wird ein Wachstum in Höhe von 2,5%, im darauffolgenden Jahr in Höhe von 3% erwartet. Die Gründe für die zügige Erhöhung liegen zum einen in den steigenden Rohölpreisen, den langfristigen Investitionen in Infrastruktur, deren Nutzen erst in den kommenden Jahren voll zum Tragen kommen wird und die Rückkehr des Vertrauens der Investoren und Konsumenten. Es gibt einige Mechanismen in der Volkswirtschaft der V.A.E., die Grund zu der Annahme ge- ben, dass der Rezession eine schnelle Erholung folgen wird. Zum einen sind dort die Konsu- mentenausgaben: In den vergangenen neun Monaten hat es eine Vielzahl von Entlassungen gegeben. Weniger Arbeitsplätze bedeuten weniger verfügbares Einkommen der Haushalte und im Fall der V.A.E. auch einen Rückgang der Bevölkerung. Obwohl Aufenthaltsgenehmigungen für Ausländer nicht mehr an den Nachweis eines Arbeitsplatzes gebunden sind, ist mit einer Rückkehr der Arbeitssuchenden in ihre Heimatländer zu rechnen. Möglicherweise könnte die- ser Effekt der Krise zu einem Rückgang der Bevölkerung im Land in 2009 geführt haben. Zu- sätzlich zum Einkommensverlust haben es die Konsumenten schwerer Konsumentenkredite zu bekommen, die einer der Schlüsseltreiber für den Boom im Konsumgüterbereich in den ver- gangenen fünf Jahren darstellten. Andererseits waren die Staatsausgaben in 2009 auf einem sehr hohem Niveau, wobei vor allem in Infrastrukturprojekte investiert
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