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Tune Insurance 3131 MarchMarch 20142014 Produced by: KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell Securities Sdn Bhd Distributed by: Jefferies Group LLC Tune Insurance Buy Tune in, sit back and enjoy the ride Price We like Tune Ins for its highly profitable online travel insurance business, riding RM1.94 on the fast expansion of AirAsia Group. In addition, we see upside potential from Target price the rationalisation of its newly acquired general insurance business. As such, we RM2.31 initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation at RM2.31. Market data Financial Highlights Bloomberg code CIMBTIH MK FYE Dec (RMm) FY12 FY13E FY14F FY15F FY16F No. of shares (m) 751.8 Gross premiums 215 368 429 488 558 Market cap (RMm) 1,458.4 Net earned premiums 158 241 284 327 377 52-week high/low (RM) 2.17 / 1.38 Operating profit 68 79 97 112 128 Avg daily turnover (RMm) 1.4 Pre-tax profit 58 77 95 110 127 KLCI (pts) 1,850.73 Net profit 41 68 81 94 109 Source: Bloomberg EPS (sen) 5.5 9.1 10.8 12.5 14.5 Net yield (%) - 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.2 Valuation PER (x) 35.2 21.3 18.0 15.5 13.4 Target price (RM) 2.31 PBV (x) 10.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.6 Methodology GGM ROE (%) 29% 17% 18% 19% 20% Key assumptions ROE = 19.7% Source: Company, KAF COE = 9.9% g = 6.5% Non-conventional steals the spotlight Implied FY14 PE (x) 21.4 Implied FY14 PBV (x) 3.9 An underwriter for life and non-life insurance, Tune Ins operates through its online business Implied FY14 Yield (%) 1.4 and 83%-owned TIMB. Its niche in the online business allows for products to be offered Source: KAF competitively due to lower distribution cost. Coupled with the low claims nature of travel- related insurance, the online business offers lucrative margins. Despite constituting only 26% Equity | Malaysia | Diversified financials Diversified | Malaysia | Equity of the group’s revenue in FY13, the segment made up 78% of its profit after tax. Equity | Malaysia Non-Bank Financials Riding along the skies The group’s exclusive relationship with AirAsia (AIRA MK, RM2.53, BUY) puts it in a sweet Performance spot to ride on the booming air travel demand in the region, in our view. Tune Ins has also 1M 3M 12M entered into new tie-ups with external partners like Cebu Pacific (CEB PM, 46.20PHP, NR) Absolute (%) 8 1 38 and Cozmo Travel. Aside from generating revenue from travel insurance, the company is Rel market (%) 7 1 24 also able to tap into its partners’ extensive databases to market its traditional general 2.40 insurance products, thus providing upside potential for TIMB. 2.20 Good earnings prospects 2.00 We project healthy 17% earnings CAGR in FY13-16F, driven by good premium growth and 1.80 higher underwriting margins from both online and general insurance. The former is tied to our 1.60 strong passenger growth expectation for AirAsia while the latter should see a steady decline in claims ratio, as the group continues to drive its portfolio mix away from the motor segment. 1.40 Initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation at RM2.31 1.20 Feb 13 Feb 14 We initiate coverage of Tune Ins with a Buy at RM2.31. Our GGM valuation assumes a COE TIH MK KLCI of 9.9% and growth rate of 6.5%. While valuations of 18x 2014F PER and 3.3x PBV are Source: Bloomberg admittedly on the high side, we believe this is supported by good value creation and healthy growth prospects. The stock also offers the best liquidity amongst insurance stocks in Malaysia. While net yields of 1-2% are low, we see dividend growth potential given our strong earnings expectations as well as the possibility of a step-up in payout once the wider Analyst regional footprint has been established. Joanna Cheah Joanna Cheah* +60 3 2168 8097 (603)[email protected] 2168-8097 [email protected] Produced by KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell Securities Sdn Bhd Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosure Appendix * KAF-Seagroatt Jefferies does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Jefferies may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on page 19 of this report. Non-conventional steals the spotlight Tune Insurance Holdings Berhad (Tune Ins) made its debut on Bursa Malaysia on 20 February 2013, with a market capitalisation of RM1.0bn. Within three months of listing, the stock had appreciated by 61% to a high RM2.17 in May 2013. It has since retraced to RM1.94 but is still 44% above its IPO price. Chart 1 : Share price performance since listing 2.40 RM 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Source: Bloomberg The group is an underwriter, both directly and via reinsurance, of general and life insurance products across the Asia Pacific region. The two core main segments of the group are online insurance business and general insurance. Chart 2 : Tune Insurance’s corporate structure Source: Company (1) Online insurance business The group’s online insurance business centres on its strategic partnerships with the AirAsia Group, AirAsia Expedia and Tune Hotels. 2 Chart 3 : Illustration of Tune Insurance’s online business model Source: Company Essentially, Tune Ins offers products to customers as part of their online booking process of either flights (via AirAsia), hotel rooms (via Tune Hotels), or travel-related services offered by Expedia in any country with which the broader Group has established arrangements. If a customer opts to purchase the additional insurance, it is subsequently bundled together as part of the main booking process, with the customer paying one overall fee. The customer only needs to use one set of registration information. Chart 4 : Tune’s regional reach through online insurance Source: Company As the group does not currently have insurance licenses outside Malaysia, any policies purchased by customers, depending on the origin of flight, will be underwritten by its local insurance partners. The local insurance partners, in turn, will reinsure part of these exposures (on a predetermined basis but typically 30:70, according to management) back to the company’s reinsurance entity, Tune LifeRe or Tune GenRe. Where necessary, the group will reinsure a portion of its underwriting exposure to external reinsurance agents. 3 Chart 5 : Product offerings of Tune Ins’s online insurance business Source: Company Some of the core products being offered via its partners’ websites currently are:- travel insurance, sold to customers of AirAsia and branded as the “Tune Insure Travel Protection Plan” (previously dubbed AirAsia Insure Travel Protection Plan) lifestyle protection insurance, namely the AA Lifestyle Protection Plan and the Tune Hotels Lifestyle Protection Plan guest Personal Accident insurance for Tune Hotels travel insurance, sold to customers of AirAsia Expedia, and Skybus protection plan (for personal accident, luggage demand and losses) for AirAsia customers who purchase Skybus tickets online Table 1 : Exclusive long-term arrangements with the AirAsia Group and Tune Hotels Online Partners Period Expiry AirAsia Bhd 10 2022 AirAsia Japan 10 2022 PT Indonesia AirAsia 15 2027 AirAsia X 15 2027 AirAsia Inc 15 2027 Thai AirAsia 5 2017 Tune Hotels 10 2022 Source: Company The relationships between Tune Ins and its online partners are protected by distribution agreements over a period of 5-15 years with the option to be renewed upon terms and conditions mutually agreed by the parties. A key risk, in our view, is unfavourable terms to Tune Ins upon the expiry of its existing agreements. As for AirAsia Expedia, Tune Ins is currently the non-exclusive insurance manager and has begun marketing its line of products through three of Expedia’s websites in Asia, increasing the potential customer reach. Through the tie-up arrangements, Tune Ins issued 6m policies in 2012 and 8m policies in 2013. The group has continued to register growth in markets outside Malaysia. In FY13, 47% of its policies were booked in Malaysia while the remaining 53% were from Thailand (19%), Indonesia (15%), Singapore (5%), China (8%) and others (6%). 4 Chart 6 : Geographical breakdown of policies in FY13 Chart 7 : Geographical breakdown of policies in FY12 Others, 7% Others, 6% China, 5% China, 8% Singapore, 6% Singapore, 5% Malaysia, 46% Indonesia, 13% Indonesia, 15% Malaysia, 51% Thailand, 19% Thailand, 19% Source: Company Source: Company Not resting on its laurels, Tune Ins successfully entered its first strategic partnership in May 2013 beyond its current arrangements with the AirAsia Group, Tune Hotels and AirAsia Expedia. The group now manages travel protection plans for all inbound flights to the Philippines, on behalf of Malayan Insurance CO (MICO), Cebu Pacific’s insurance product manager. More recently, in January 2014, the group entered another joint venture with Cozmo Travel, a travel agency in the UAE, to manage the travel insurance business of Cozmo and its group affiliates. This will be Tune Ins’s first foray outside of Asia Pacific. Management is optimistic about the insurance and travel potential associated with the MENA market and believes it could contribute meaningfully to the group’s bottom-line over time.
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