IRS Regional Brief Vol. 3 / 2007

India-Pakistan Peace Process Shaheen Akhtar Research Fellow

Afghanistan Arshi Saleem Hashmi Research Analyst

Institute of Regional Studies – Islamabad 1

IRS -Pakistan Peace Process Regional August-September 2007

Brief Shaheen Akhtar

Although the peace process has slowed down, yet the talks on different issues taken up in the composite dialogue have continued. In the August-September period, talks were held on the issues of maritime cooperation (9-10) August and Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project (30-31) August. With the discussions on the Wullar issue, the fourth round of the composite dialogue process stands closed and opens for political review.

While the government has displayed remarkable restraint and refrained from commenting on India-Pakistan Pakistan’s political situation, New Delhi did try to capitalize Peace Process on Islamabad’s domestic problems. This was quite evident in India’s decision to throw open the disputed Siachen heights for trekking and mountaineering, revive work on the Wullar Barrarge/Tulbul Navigation project and step up allegations of cross-LoC infiltration. India and Pakistan also levelled allegations against each other for initiating arms race in the region. In a report published in the daily Hindu, India expressed apprehensions that US weapons being supplied to Pakistan could be used against it in the event of a war. Citing a study conducted by a Washington-based think tank, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said, “This [security] assistance is often justified as playing a critical role in the war on terrorism, whereas, in reality, the weapons systems are often ‘prestige items’ to help Pakistan in the event of a war with India.”(1) Pakistan, however, made it clear that it has no aggressive designs against anyone, including India. The Foreign Office spokesperson underscored that Pakistan’s defence programme was defensive in nature. She pointed out that Indian’s current year defence budget stood at $ 24 billion with 20 per cent increase over the last year. India also has plans to make defence purchases worth $ 30 billion in the next 10 years and has recently issued tenders for the purchase of 126 combat aircraft for $ 10 billion.(2) This indicates that it is India in fact that is pursuing arms race in the region.

Pakistan also protested with India and UK over their announcement for initiating joint war games in the disputed area of Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir. The two are also planning to conduct joint exercise on the Siachen glacier.(3) Despite Pakistan’s protests, Indian and British troops went

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 2 ahead with the war games. The troops which included nearly 120 men from Britain and nearly 140 from India, are training at an altitude of between 4,900 metres and 5,800 metres and are also sharing their experiences of battling “terrorism” in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Similar war games involving Indian and US troops were held last year in Ladakh.(4)

Pakistan-India Maritime Talks The maritime talks between Indian Coast Guard and Pakistani Maritime Security Agency were held in New Delhi on 9-10 August. The two sides discussed the issues pertaining to violation of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) by fishermen, procedures for their repatriation along with their boats, pollution incidents and response, maritime search, rescue, natural disasters, exchange of information on smuggling and trafficking. The two agencies also discussed various modalities of dealing with violations of EEZ. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to provide help to mariners in distress and carry out coordinated search and rescue operations. They also showed interest in information sharing. This included information regarding the number of fishermen and boats in custody on either side as well as the modalities of releasing fishermen whose identities have been established as well as their fishing boats were also discussed.(5) The talks signified positive movement in maritime cooperation between the two countries.

The talks were held under the purview of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on 3 October 2005 which had approved a hotline between chiefs of the two agencies. The hotline was established on 14 November 2006. The MoU stipulates that the heads of the two organizations meet once a year alternately in India and Pakistan to review the progress in implementing the MoU.

Talks on Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project India and Pakistan failed to make any headway in the talks on the Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation project held in New Delhi on 30-31 August. During the talks both sides reiterated their respective positions on the issue. Pakistan asserted that it was a natural lake and man-made storage could not be built on it as it would interfere with the flow of the Jhelum river, allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Pakistan asked India to abandon the Wullar Barrage project as it was not consistent with the IWT. Pakistan Secretary, Ministry of Water and Power, Muhammad Ismail Qureshi, contended that previously India had presented the project as a regulating structure. Now it had taken the position that it was a navigational lock.(6) Qureshi observed that the

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 3 proposed Indian project would interfere with the flow of water, affecting the agriculture and power sectors in Pakistan.(7) Conversely, India asked Pakistan to withdraw its objections to the project saying that the proposed navigational locks were not in violation of the IWT. India’s Union Water Resources Minister Saifuddin Soz stated that Pakistan’s observation that India was trying to build a barrage at Wullar was a “complete misnomer” as barrages were meant for diverting the flow of water which was not the case here. “We want to build navigational locks so that water level is maintained at 4.5 feet for navigational purposes.”(8) He argued that the level of water had to be maintained at 4.5 feet during winters to allow navigation on the river, which was barred by the IWT.

The joint statement issued at the end of the talks tried to give a positive impression and referred the matter to the technocrats, besides continuing the secretary-level talks. The two sides also agreed to set up a technical-level mechanism to move on the issue. This is the first time that the two sides have agreed on such a mechanism. The Pakistan team visited the Wullar lake area in March 2007 to inspect the project’s site and progress on downstream power projects like Uri-II. India started the

Wullar Barrage/Tulbal Navigation Project in 1984 but the work was halted in 1987 after Pakistan raised objections. Now,

India is insisting on reviewing work on the project.

Meanwhile, India has drawn up an extensive plan to utilize the water of the Jehlum. Saifuddin Soz has asked the IHK government to take immediate steps for exploiting the navigational potential of the river, the only river that flows through the . He underscored that the navigational potential of the Jhelum had been highlighted by expert committees including the Inland Water Transport

Committee which had stated around 170km stretch of “Jhelum river has excellent potential for navigation.” The minister said in 1999, Railway India Technical Engineering Services

(RITES) conducted a survey and found that the 27km stretch from Pampore in Pulwama district to Chatabal in Srinagar district were ideal for navigational purposes. The RITES concluded that “the returns will be ten times the investments into this project.” Soz said the navigational project would be a cheap and pollution-free mode of transportation besides a tourist attraction which could help in reviving the culture of the Valley. The Wullar Lake feeding the Jhelum river and filling Pakistan’s Mangla Dam is Asia’s largest freshwater reservoir. As the two countries quarrel over whether the barrage on the lake is illegal storage or not, the lake according to Soz has shrunk from 202 square kilometres to 30 square kilometers.

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Meanwhile, work on the Baglihar hydro-electric project along the river Chenab in Jammu and Kashmir is nearing completion. Engineers at the project have reported to have completed 90 per cent of technical works. They maintain that the delay in the commissioning of the project was due to civil works on the dam site. At present, 6,000 workers are executing the project. They include technical experts, engineers and labourers.(9)

Fishermen/civilians released India and Pakistan exchanged prisoners on the occasion of their 60th independence anniversaries. The two sides had agreed to release by 14 August all civilian prisoners whose national identity was confirmed and verified and who had completed their sentences. India released 72 Pakistani prisoners including 48 fishermen who had strayed across the maritime boundary into India. Pakistan handed over 134 Indian prisoners, including two women and 100 fishermen, to India. Pakistan was expecting India to release 150 civilian prisoners whose national status was confirmed and the Pakistan High Commission had even issued their travel documents, but the Indian authorities did not do so. Hence, Pakistan urged India to release 62 of its nationals languishing in Indian jails and rejected its claim that the prisoners were not freed because

Pakistan had failed to verify their nationality.(10) According to an estimate, more than 3,000 prisoners from both sides have been released over the past four years.

Cross-border truck service

Pakistan and India started cross-border truck service on 1 October under an agreement. Earlier, the two sides agreed on the modalities allowing cross-border movement of trucks upto the designated points at Wagah/Attari and decided the service would be operational by 1 October. The agreement came at the technical-level meeting held at Wagha. The two sides agreed that trucks from one side would be allowed to go to designated points on the other side at the Wagah/Attari border for unloading of cargo. According to a joint statement issued after the meeting, a hotline would be established between the two customs authorities at the Wagah/Attari border. Initially, trucks up to the size of ten-wheelers would be allowed to ply.(11) Both the sides also agreed to waive passport/visa requirements as well as those for international driving licence: a system of computerised single-entry permits would be introduced. These permits, which would be issued in triplicate by the respective customs authorities, would contain a picture of ID of the driver, his name, address, licence number and details of the vehicle.

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Terrorism India and Pakistan blame game on terrorist attacks in each other’s country continued. First, India accused Pakistani security agency for the bomb blasts which occurred in India's Hyderabad city. On 25 August 2007, 44 persons were killed and another 54 injured in two bomb explosions in Hyderabad. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy alleged that Pakistan had a hand in the blasts. Pakistan rejected Indian accusations but condemned the terrorist attacks. Pakistan suggested it would have been better for those making accusations to await the results of the investigations.(12) In addition, on 29 August Indian Foreign Minister Pranab

Mukherjee told parliament that Pakistan’s diplomatic missions in several countries had been indulging in anti-India propaganda and facilitating terrorists.(13) Pakistan rejected the allegations as “baseless”. Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson observed: “We have, on the other hand, evidence that the Indian missions are engaged in maligning Pakistan and some Indian missions in our neighbourhood have contacts with elements hostile to Pakistan’s interests.”(14)

Pakistan also accused India for the killing of Maulana Hassan Jan who was murdered in Peshawar on 15 September. Senior police officers investigating the killing suspected Indian involvement. Further, NWFP Governor Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai also hinted at the Indian hand behind the attacks in FATA and different parts of NWFP. He told the media that Indian consulates in Afghanistan were involved in fomenting trouble in the province.(15) A joint anti-terror mechanism to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations is in place to address such issues. The first meeting of the anti-terror panel took place in March 2007 and after much delay the next meeting has been scheduled for 22 October 2007.

India opens Siachen for “adventure tourism” While the stalemate on the issue of authentication of ground positions before troops withdrawal from Siachen continues, India’s decision to open the disputed Siachen glacier for

“adventure tourism” has come as a setback to the peace process. On 13 September, India threw open Siachen to public and a on 26 September, a 42 member team comprising 15 army personnel, seven media persons, three civilians, two cadets of Indian Military Academy, four cadets each of

Rashtriya Indian Military College and Rashtriya Military

School Chail and six NCC cadets of Ladakh left for trekking on Siachen. The Indian defence spokesman Col A. K. Mathur said that the trek would be completed over a period of 20 days.(16)

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The Indian army is planning to organize limited expeditions to the glacier on a regular basis from the next year. On 19 September, the Defence Minister A K Antony disclosed that as many as 15 expeditions, including some foreign ones from the US, France and Australia, had already scaled peaks on the Siachen glacier and the area had been open to civilians for quite some time. He stated that since July, three teams from the US, France and Australia had ascended peaks straddling the Siachen glacier.(17)

Pakistan sharply reacted and expressed deep concern over Indian decision and summoned the Indian deputy high commissioner to the foreign ministry and lodged protest. Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson Tasnim Aslam told the media that Siachen was a “conflict zone and the reported move by India to open it for tourism can aggravate the situation with serious consequences that could vitiate the atmosphere for the ongoing peace process.”(18) She pointed out that the Indian move was a violation of the Simla Agreement under which either country could not change or violate the LoC unilaterally. “The issue is under discussion between Pakistan and India within the framework of the composite dialogue and its final status is yet to be agreed upon by the two sides,” she said. The spokesperson observed that New Delhi lacked political will to solve the issue whereas Pakistan wanted progress in resolving the Siachen dispute.(19) Pakistan had made a number of reasonable proposals from time to time, to resolve the issue but progress has remained stalled due to India’s inflexible attitude.(20)

Pakistani media criticized Indian decision to open Siachen for trekking. Daily Dawn in its editorial questioned India’s intention whether it was for trekking alone or India wanted to establish that Siachen glacier fell within its territory.(21) Instead of making it a “mountain of peace” as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared two years ago or a ‘peace park’, as envisaged by the peace activists and environmentalists, the Indian move does undermine ceasefire in Siachen that was holding there since November 2003. It has raised fears in Pakistan that New Delhi is surreptitiously trying to integrate Siachen into India, instead of going for a mutually acceptable settlement. Despite protests from Pakistan, India maintains that it doesn't need Pakistan’s approval to send trekkers to Siachen, in what it says is essentially an “Indian territory.”(22)

The 72-kilometre Siachen glacier, north of the grid reference NJ 9842, is the only part of Jammu and Kashmir which both countries recognize as being ‘disputed’ and are engaged in sorting out. Indian troops are deployed at present on the Actual

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Ground Position Line (AGPL) from the end of the LoC at NJ 9842 to Indira Col. Pakistan has been claiming the line from NJ 9842 to the Karakoram Pass. India has around 5,000 troops on the glacier while Pakistan has less than half that number.(23) More troops die on Siachen due to inhospitable weather than gunshots. According to one estimate, maintaining troops on the glacier costs Islamabad Rs15m a day while the daily expenses incurred by New Delhi can be as high as Rs50m. This is a huge investment that two poor countries can ill afford.(24) Besides, environmentalists have sounded alarm bells, saying the huge presence of armies on the glacier will add to the warming and subsequently the melting of the glacier, which will not be in the interest of either country.

IPI gas pipeline project Iran has warned India that it would go ahead with the deal with

Pakistan alone if New Delhi did not agree to terms on transit pricing with Islamabad. India did not attend the IPI talks that were held in Iran on 24-26 September saying that it would not attend the talks unless it finalized transit fee issue with Pakistan. Pakistan has said that it is committed to the IPI project, and would go ahead with it even without India. India has also reiterated that it is committed to the deal. India- Pakistan gas pipeline project could not be finalized as the three states are yet to agree on the price of gas that Iran would sell to Pakistan and India. However, many believe that the real issue delaying the contract is the US pressure on India not to enter into any major economic deals with Iran at a time of tensions over its nuclear drive.

Kashmir President Musharraf responding to questions at a weekly television programme ‘Aiwan-e-Sadr Se’ (From the President’s

Office), observed there was a “sea change” in India’s Kashmir policy acknowledging its “core issue” status in relations with Pakistan, while Islamabad had not given up “anything” on its (25) position on the issue. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has also reiterated Pakistan’s moral, political and diplomatic support to Kashmiris for their right to self-determination until a peaceful settlement is reached. He underscored that the solution to Kashmir dispute was imperative for sustainable and lasting peace in South Asia. He hoped that India would respond positively to Pakistan’s several suggestions, including that of (26) demilitarisation. Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs Tahir Iqbal has said that the Kashmir issue has entered a decisive stage and both Pakistan and India are close to an agreement on (27) demilitarisation in the area.

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“People-to-people” survey by CNN-IBN news television channel A “people-to-people” survey conducted jointly by the CNN- IBN news television channel, the Indian Express and Pakistan’s Dawn newspapers says a majority of urban Indians and Pakistanis favour closer relations between India and Pakistan, but “many do not expect this to actually happen”. Some 90 per cent of Indians and 84 per cent of Pakistanis favour greater people-to-people contacts, and 86 per cent in both countries favour greater bilateral trade. At the same time, 75 per cent on both sides want to see an end to the nuclear arms race.(28)

The survey revealed that 87 per cent of Kashmiris have no attachment with the Indian state and are firm in their preference for azadi. While only 7 per cent prefer to remain with India, a mere 3 per cent opt for Pakistan.(29) Commenting on the survey, The Kashmir Times observed: “it is the saddest possible commentary on sixty years of Indian rule and on our policy-makers that, after literally spending billions on security, subsidy and developmental projects and sacrificing the lives of thousands of soldiers, policemen and civilians, India has not been able to win the hearts of the Kashmiris. They do not feel that they are Indian, yet there is an attempt to treat them as such.”(30) The survey indicates while an overwhelming majority of people in India and Pakistan want peace, the huge majority of Kashmiris want freedom from the Indian occupation which would in fact ensure peace in the region.

Cross-LoC infiltration On 28 August, the Commander-in-Chief of the army’s Northern Command, Lt Gen H S Panag, alleged that Pakistan was running terrorist training camps and had readied at least 53 launch pads on the “international border” in Jammu and Kashmir to facilitate the intrusion of these militants into the Indian side. He also alleged that more than 800 terrorists were

(31) all set to cross the “border” and “enter into the country.” In addition, the spokesperson of the Udhampur-based army's Northern Command alleged as many as 200 militants were believed to have crossed over in the first half of this year. India’s Minister of State for Home V. Radhika Selvi told the that Pakistan taking advantage of the ceasefire had constructed 128 bunkers along the “border” with India, 95 of (32) them in the Jammu sector alone.

India has been taking up a number of steps to upgrade surveillance at the border and has installed modern technology devices at the outposts. It has sanctioned 697 new posts along the LoC, reducing the average inter outposts distance to 3.5

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 9 km.(33) Troops at the posts have been equipped with hi-tech electronic surveillance equipment which include hand-held thermal imagers, mobile surveillance vehicles and radars. In addition, recently, the Indian army has installed new and sophisticated surveillance equipment at selected points in Machil sector in Kupwara district. Imported from Israel, the system named Surveillance Grid is installed at a few selected points as a pilot project in areas prone to large-scale “infiltration.” Surveillance Grid is the first monitoring system of its kind in entire South Asia. It makes combined use of high-power cameras, thermal sensing cameras and long-range observation system (Loros) to monitor all types of movements at and across the LoC. The cameras incorporated in the grid can see up to 17 km; thermal cameras can see any type of activity at night, and Loros is a multi-sensor imaging system for long-range day-night observation. The army is planning to install more surveillance grids at other sensitive points at the LoC and talks to acquire more such grids from Israel are going on at the Defence Ministry level.(34) An Indian army officer stated that “The success rate of surveillance grid is very high. Now we track a militant from his launching pad in [AJK], let him cross the LoC and continue monitoring him till he enters a no-return point in our territory. There we put an ambush and kill him before he could enter any further.”(35)

Kashmiris & the peace process Pro-India groups People’s Democratic Party (PDP) patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has said a feasible and implementable solution of the Kashmir issue is more in sight today than has been ever before. He said: “It is for the first time that possible proposals for resolution of the issue, instead of hackneyed rhetoric, have become focus of discussion amongst various parties.”(36)

Addressing a function organized for the party’s foundation day celebrations Mufti Sayeed stressed the need for immediate restoration of trade, travel and tourism across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. He argued that “a J&K-centric cross-LoC economic dimension to the ongoing peace process would facilitate the much-needed political stability in the region." Mufti made it clear that the key to the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) lay in cross-LoC trade. "SAFTA would become a reality the day trucks start rolling on Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Road,”(37) he added.

The issue of cross-LoC trade is on table for over past two years and did figure at the Commerce Secretaries talks. India has suggested emulating its China model of border trade to allow flow of goods across the LoC through Srinagar- Muzaffarabad road. Indian Minister of State for Commerce

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Jairam Ramesh says: “The model of trade could be similar to Nathula pass in Sikkim, used for trade between India and China.”(38) was quoted as saying that Pakistan was in favour of duty-free movement of a limited number of goods through the LoC. However, Pakistan Commerce Secretary Syed Asif Ali Shah denied that there were any talks with India on allowing trade through the LoC.(39) According to Indian sources, Jairam Ramesh hoped that the trade across the LoC would start as soon as the list of items had been exchanged between India and Pakistan. New Delhi was waiting for response from Islamabad in this direction, he added. The items proposed by India for trade include carpets, rugs, wall hangings, papier mache, Kashmiri woollen products, furniture, Kashmiri fruits, spices, flowers, Kashmiri saffron and Kashmiri Wazwan. From the Pakistani side, the list includes spices, apples, walnut, rice, precious stones, gabbas, furniture, marble, onion, garlic, and medicinal herbs.(40) Jairam, however, said the issue had much to do with the other confidence-building measures related to the LoC.

Pro-freedom groups The pro-freedom groups continued to express disappointment over the peace process and stressed the right of self- determination of Kashmiris. The Hurriyat Conference (G) chairman, Syed Ali Shah Geelani stated that "the resolution of Kashmir issue is in the interests of Indian government as it spends large chunk of its budget on its military for holding Kashmir". He asked India to give up its rigidity and resolve the issue according to the wishes and aspirations of the people of Kashmir. He asserted that “demanding right to self- determination is our birth right and we are not demanding that any legal part of India be broken free.”(41)

Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) spokesman Junaidul Islam, based in Srinagar, told a local news agency KNS that India’s decision to open Siachen for tourism was “nothing less than an open threat" to Pakistan and “reflects the extensionist tendencies of the government of India.” He traced this attitude of India to the “unnecessary flexibility shown by Pakistan towards India and the fact that some Kashmiri leaders held talks with India.”(42)

In a statement JKLF (A) chairman Javed Mir said that the CBMs announced by India and Pakistan over the past four years have had no impact on the ground situation in Kashmir. “Only the relatives, near and dear ones and blue eyed boys of the rulers are allowed to travel in the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus. The Indian government and their local agencies in occupied Kashmir are giving travel permission to their near and dear ones and trying to hide their failure. The people who

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 11 have been associated with the struggle during the past 19 years are being denied permission to visit their near and dear ones across the LoC,” he said.(43) He even threatened to work out a programme to stop the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service.

AJK & Kashmir issue Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan, Prime Minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), paid a 25 days (18 July-12 August) visit to the US and European countries to counter negative Indian propaganda against the Kashmir movement. Speaking at a seminar, “Freedom and Democracy, not Terrorism,” he observed that “terrorism is diametrically opposed to religion or civilization. This is a condemnable phenomenon as it negates the human values, freedom and democracy. No civilization can brook chaos. Therefore, to all cultures and civilizations terrorism in any form stands condemnable. I condemn it and expect others to condemn it. On this point of understanding the

East and the West stand united”.(44) However, he clarified that branding the freedom movements as terrorism would mean that all those in the world who attained national freedom through struggle have to undo their glorious past. Replying to a question over the ongoing dialogue process between India and Pakistan he said that the final solution of the Kashmir issue was possible if India agreed to peace proposals initiated by Musharraf and demilitarized the region as a first concrete step forward that would add up to confidence between the people of the area and instill new hopes among them. Sardar Attique apprised the international community about the ongoing Pakistan-India dialogue, importance of Kashmir solution for South Asia, President Musharraf’s four-point formula for the resolution of the Kashmir issue and current situation in AJK and Occupied Kashmir.

On his return home, while addressing a press conference he observed that the international community wanted the settlement of Kashmir issue in consultation with the Kashmiri people. He contended that the Kashmiris could act as facilitators of peace between India and Pakistan. He suggested that the administrations in Muzaffarabad and Srinagar should be helped to work in coordination with each other for the good of the people. He observed: “while the Kashmiri politicians enjoy the opportunity of interacting with their counterparts across the divide, the administrations in the divided Kashmiri capitals should also be given an opportunity to contribute to the ongoing peace process.”(45) He felt that the proposed coordination, if materialised, could lead to grant of permission to intending trans-LoC travellers by the respective deputy commissioners on two sides. Saradar Attique also called upon the international community to persuade India and Pakistan to declare the state of Jammu and Kashmir a nuclear-free zone.

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He also supported free flow of trade goods across the Line of Control.

Conferences on Kashmir Latin American International Kashmir Conference The First Latin American International Kashmir Conference was held on 1-2 August at Montevideo, Uruguay. It was co- sponsored by the College of International Relations

Professionals at University of Uruguay,(46) and organized jointly by the Kashmir American Council and the international Relations Department of the Uruguayan University. Scholars from Russia, Belarus, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain,

United States, Italy, India, and Pakistan presented their papers. The conference adopted a declaration titled : Montevideo Kashmir Declaration. The 8-clause declaration unanimously rejected converting the ceasefire line into international border as an option, called for cessation of all types of human rights violations, urged a process of demilitarization, release of prisoners and recognizing “new beginning” as a step to strengthen the peace process between India and Pakistan.(47)

Indo- Pakistan Track II talks The fifth round of Indo- Pakistan Track II talks was held from 27-29 August 2007, in Singapore. It was organized by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and was attended by a host of experts from India and Pakistan. The three-day international seminar, titled India-Pakistan: A Peace Process, was attended by eight Indians and an equal number of Pakistanis that included retired army generals, diplomats, scholars, politicians and senior journalists. The focus was on the Kashmir issue. Some of the participants came from the Indian-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, including Ladakh, and from Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) and Northern Areas. Their presence made the Kashmir debate all the more relevant and interesting. According to the Indian experts at the seminar, the deal on Kashmir has been written in the form of non-papers and would be honoured even if there were any regime changes in India and Pakistan. In the words of one Indian participant, the deal has been insulated against any change in government in the two countries. He said the agreement has also taken care of Pakistan's Northern Areas, which could become a bone of contention due to its lack of a constitutional status.(48)

The Geneva Convention on Kashmir On 24-25 September a large number of jurists, lawyers, academics, experts from think tanks, politicians from both the sides of the Line of Control and peace and human rights activists from all over the world gathered in the United Nations building in Geneva, Switzerland, to review the human rights situation in Jammu and Kashmir, analyse the ongoing peace

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 13 process between the two neighbours and discuss the relevance of the nuclear factor with regard to the unresolved dispute.

It was organised by the International Human Rights Association of American Minorities (IHRAAM) and the International Council for Human Rights (ICHR), Kashmir Centre EU, and coincided with the sixth session of the UN Council for Human Rights.

The convention adopted the "Geneva Convention on Kashmir - - Working Paper". It emphasized effective demilitarization, cessation of all violence, ceasefire by Kashmiri militant groups, promotion of human rights in Jammu and Kashmir in accordance with the Geneva Convention, amd free access to respected independent NGOs and agencies to monitor human rights. The convention also called for improved communication and free movement between different parts of the former state of Jammu and Kashmir and suggested forming a think tank — Kashmir European Strategic Group (KESG) — which may from time to time engage in providing fresh ideas and input for the two governments and the Kashmiri leadership to resolve the Kashmir conflict.

Cross-LoC Kashmiris meet in New York Prominent Kashmiri political leaders and influential citizens from both sides of the LoC attended a gathering organized by the Kashmir Mission, USA. People’s Democratic Party (PDP) patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and party president Mehbooba Mufti were invited to address the joint gathering of Kashmiris from both sides of the LoC. This is for the first time that leaders from various shades of opinion from across the state shared a common platform to exchange views on how to dismantle the barriers between the two sides and pursue the common cause of peace and prosperity for the whole state.(49)

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Notes and References

1. “Pakistan may use US arms against India, says Pranab”, The Hindu, New Delhi, 8 September 2007. 2. “No designs against India, says Pak”, The Tribune, Chandigarh, 11 September 2007. 3. “Pakistan protests UK-India war games”, The News, Islamabad, 26 September 2007. 4. “India starts Siachen trek despite Pakistan’s protest”, Daily Times, Islamabad, 27 September 2007 5. “Indo-Pak Coast Guard talks Fishermen breathe easy post peace moves”, The Tribune, Chandigarh, 11 August 2007. 6. “Delhi urged to abandon Wullar project”, Dawn, Islamabad, 31 August 2007.“India asked to abandon Wullar”, The Nation, 31 August 2007. 7. Iftikhar Gilani, “Wullar Barrage issue to be referred to technocrats”, Daily Times, Islamabad, 1 September 2007. 8. Yasir Saeed, “Tulbul navigation dispute resolution soon: Soz”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 18 September 2007. 9. Iftikhar Gilani “90pc Baglihar technical works completed”, Daily Times, Islamabad, 15 September 2007: “90 pc Baglihar technical works completed”, Daily Times, 15 September 2007. 10. Nirupama Subramanian, “Prisoner release: Pakistan unhappy”, The Hindu, New Delhi, 21 August 2007. 11. “Pak, India allow cross-border truck service”, The Nation, Islamabad, 21 August 2007. 12. Mariana Baabar, “No hand in Indian blasts: FO”, The News, Islamabad, August 28, 2007. 13. Jawed Naqvi, “India levels fresh allegations”, Dawn, Islamabad, 30 August 2007. 14. Qudssia Akhlaque, “New Indian allegations dismissed as baseless”, Dawn, Islamabad, 31 August 2007. 15. Javed Aziz Khan, “Police suspect Indian hand in murder of Hassan Jan”, The News, Islamabad, 25 September 2007. 16. 42 member trekking team leaves for Siachen,” The Kashmir, Jammu, September 26, 2007. 17. “Siachen open to travellers for some time now: Antony”, The Sentinel, Guwahati, 20 September 2007. 18. Mariana Baabar, “Pakistan protests to India over Siachen tourism”, The News, Islamabad, September 18, 2007. 19. Mariana Baabar, “Pakistan protests to India over Siachen tourism”, The News, Islamabad, September 18, 2007. 20. Pakistan protests Siachen trek plan”, Dawn, Islamabad, 18 September 2007. 21. “Siachen ‘tourism’”, Dawn, Islamabad, 21 September 2007. 22. “India hits back at Pak over Siachen issue”, Times of India, New Delhi, 17 September 2007. 23. Pakistan protests Siachen trek plan”, Dawn, Islamabad, 18 September 2007. 24. “Siachen ‘tourism’”, Dawn, Islamabad, 21 September 2007. 25. Nirupama Subramanian, “‘Sea change’ in India’s policy: Musharraf “, The Hindu, New Delhi, 15 September 2007. 26. “Kashmir solution a must for peace: PM”, The Post, Islamabad, 18 September 2007. 27. “Pakistan, India close to accord on Kashmir, says minister”, The News, Islamabad, August 13, 2007. 28. “Peoples’ will and Indo-Pak relations”, Daily Times 18 August 2007. 29. “Get real : Time to accept that Kashmiris don't feel very Indian”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 16 August 2007. 30. “Get real : Time to accept that Kashmiris don't feel very

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Indian”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 16, August 2007. 31. “800 militants waiting to intrude from Pak: Army”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu 29 August 2007. 32. Pakistan digs in, has 128 bunkers on border”, The Times of India, New Delhi, 23 August 2007. 33. Pakistan digs in, has 128 bunkers on border”, The Times of India, New Delhi, 23 August 2007. 34. Tejinder Singh Sodhi, “Surveillance system along LoC to keep eye on infiltrators”, The Tribune, Chandigarh, September 24, 2007. 35. Tejinder Singh Sodhi, “Surveillance system along LoC to keep eye on infiltrators”, The Tribune, Chandigarh, September 24, 2007. 36. “Feasible Kashmir solution more in sight now: Mufti”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 17 September 2007. 37. “Key to SAFTA lies in cross-LOC trade: Mufti”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 1 August 2007. 38. “Trade with Pak: India for emulating China model”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 3 August 2007. 39. “Pak says no to wheat export, sugar import Denies talks to allow trade across LoC”, The Tribune, Chandigarh, 4 August 2007. 40. Shujaat Bukhari, “India awaiting Pakistan response on trans- LoC trade: Jairam Ramesh”, The Hindu, New Delhi, 27 August 2007. 41. “Kashmir solution in India's interest: Geelani”, The Kashmir Times , Jammu, 22 September 2007. 42. “Siachen opening for tourism a threat: HM”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 21 September 2007 . 43. “Mir expresses doubt over genuineness of CBMs”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 15 September2007. 44. “Musharraf’s plan can help solve dispute: Attique”, The Nation, Islamabad, 8 August 2007. 45. “Muzaffarabad-Srinagar link urged”, Dawn, Islamabad, 13 August 2007. 46. “International conference on Kashmir in Uruguay”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 1 August 2007. 47. Montevideo Declaration o Kashmir rejects LoC as option”, The Nation, Islamabad, 2 August 2007. 48. Rahimullah Yusufzai, “Movement on Kashmir”, The News, Islamabad, 31 August 2007. 49. “Cross-LoC Kashmiris meet: Time has come to dismantle barriers: Mufti”, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 24 September 2007.

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IRS Afghanistan-Pakistan Jirga Regional August-September 2007 Brief Arshi Saleem Hashmi

Though improving Pak-Afghanistan relations requires a greater commitment to imposing security along their virtually lawless border, as well as a more comprehensive negotiating approach that would include more of the region’s myriad political actors, including the Taliban, the four-day Peace Jirga in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, ended on 12 August 2007 on a high note with the highly anticipated appearance of the Pakistani president, Gen Pervez Musharraf.

In his opening remarks, President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan

said that if only his country and Pakistan would act in a united

way, the “disaster and cruelty" in the two nations would "be (1) Afghanistan finished in one day.”

In recent months, Pakistan has also had to battle growing violence on its own soil from homegrown Islamist insurgents based in the same region. General Musharraf addressing the concluding session said that Pakistan did not seek to occupy Afghanistan territory, and stressed that it wanted prosperity and economic development for the region. President Musharraf stated that growing Islamic militancy was not just Afghanistan’s problem, Pakistan was suffering from this for so long now. Showing great moral courage, he added: “I realize this problem goes deeper, there is support from these areas. There is no doubt Afghan militants are supported from Pakistan soil. The problem that you have in your region is because support is provided from our side.”(2) Taliban militants, who left Afghanistan after the US invasion in 2001, regrouped in Pakistan’s tribal areas and NWFP. President Musharraf’s presence at the closing ceremony of the jirga lent weight to the proceedings. The assembly, convened to try to bring peace and

stability to the region, concluded with a pledge by the 650

delegates to continue an “extended, tireless and persistent

campaign against terrorism” and not to allow terrorist

(3) sanctuaries and training camps in their territory.

Despite opposition from right-wing Islamist parties in Pakistan, calling the jirga a US initiative not genuinely supported by the political forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan except Karzai and Musharraf administration, there was talk of pursuing policies of mutual respect and non-interference, which may signal a desire to reduce the flow of mutual accusations; and of implementing economic and social projects in the troubled areas. And -

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 17 perhaps the most notable concrete development -a smaller, regularly meeting jirga will be set up to consolidate the other aims and promote dialogue with “opposition.”

Attacks on Pakistani troops in tribal area Pakistan, a key ally of the United States in fighting terrorism, has deployed about 90,000 troops in the border region to try to contain al-Qaeda and Taliban militants and their local supporters who often target security forces. President Pervez

Musharraf is under growing pressure from Washington to crack down on militants in the area. Violence has again surged in the region since July this year, when militants scrapped a

September 2006 peace deal after accusing the government of violating the agreement by deploying more troops and targeting their hideouts. The ISPR head, Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, says that Pakistan has lost more than 60 soldiers in suicide and other attacks on the other hand, Pakistani security forces killed about 250 miscreants during this period."(4)

The Pakistan army re-started operations against militants in tribal areas along the Afghan border in August. According to local police chief Mirza Khan, dozens of Taliban from North Waziristan attacked the checkpost near Tull, sub-division of North-West Frontier Province’s Hangu district near North Waziristan.(5)

According to BBC South Asia, in August 18 soldiers, an officer and a civilian were taken hostage. One of the soldiers was later decapitated and the gruesome act was shot and shown on video. The others were later released after the intervention of local tribal elders. A few days after their release, more than 200 soldiers were taken hostage without a fight in South Waziristan.

Another group of 10 soldiers was also taken hostage in the

Mohmand tribal area, but soon released. The most significant attack was on 13 September when a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a heavily-guarded special forces base near Ghazi, killing 20 personnel. The special forces, SSG, have been used as a strike force in operations against pro-Taliban militants since the start of fresh campaign in Waziristan and other tribal areas by Pakistan’s security forces.(6) Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US M. A. Durrani said that Pakistani intelligence officials were not convinced that al-Qaeda’s Pakistan operations were as elaborate as US experts believed. “We say there are no safe havens,” he said. “Maybe there are Al Qaeda people hiding in caves or running for their lives, but they aren’t operating in the open because they can’t.”(7)

Daily Times quoted the Washington Post as saying that using a combination of bribes and intimidation, foreign fighters had secured the protection of tribal leaders and had begun boldly

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 18 rebuilding a network largely dismantled during the US-led invasion of Afghanistan. Xenia Dormandy, a former senior US National Security Council member, told the newspaper, “To say we’ve been supporting Musharraf is simplistic. Musharraf has spent six years walking a fine line between a rock and a hard place. Could we push him more? You won’t know the answer until you’ve pushed him too hard and he collapses.(8)

Gen Pervez Musharraf urged the nation to revive the national spirit that prevailed in 1965 when Pakistanis successfully fought a war against rival India. Gen Musharraf made his comments in a statement issued to commemorate the Defence Day, 6

September when Pakistan marks the 17-day war with India over (9) Kashmir.

Bush-Karzai meeting Afghan President Karzai and US President Bush met on 6 August 2007 at Camp David in Maryland, US, to discuss and reaffirm their pledge to finish Taliban. The meeting was under the shadow of criticism on Bush for not keeping up the promise of rebuilding Afghanistan after the invasion and not having been able to capture Osama Bin Laden or weakening al-Qaeda network. Karzai, on the other hand, was very categorical in saying that the US and allies had not achieved much since 2001 to able to declare the attack on Afghanistan and military action against al-Qaeda a success. Though Bush wanted to blame Iran for the rising violence in Afghanistan calling it a “push from Iran” to militants, Karzai refused to endorse this view and praised Iran for helping Afghanistan in its quest for peace.(10)

Korean hostages and Taliban As South Korea was already scheduled to withdraw its 200 troops by the end of the year, the Taliban's initial demand was only that they hold to this plan, but later they also sought the release of their 23 prisoners. The Taliban issued and extended several deadlines for the release, after which they threatened to begin murdering the hostages. Freedom for the militants was ruled out when it was apparent the Korean negotiators could not secure the release of Afghani prisoners, as President Hamid Karzai had previously faced criticism for freeing five rebel prisoners in exchange for an Italian hostage. The Taliban began making promises to release 19 South Koreans who had been held captive for a month and a half, freeing 12 and promising to turn over the rest in coming days. According to the agreement, the South Korean government pledged to withdraw its 200 non-combat troops in Afghanistan by the end of the year, which it had decided to do before the hostage crisis began. The government also said it would ban South Korean missionaries from travelling to Afghanistan.(11) The Taliban had kidnapped 23 South Koreans, the largest group of foreign

http://www.irs.org.pk/PublRegionalBrief.htm 19 hostages they have taken since the start of their insurgency in 2001. The captors killed two of the hostages, including a church pastor.(12)

Karzai’s offer to Taliban for negotiations President Karzai declared that while the Afghans were fighting for their honour, they still kept the door open for talks and negotiations with the enemy (Taliban).

Karzai reverting back to blaming Pakistan, also said he prayed for the “guidance” of those who plotted against Afghanistan, and provided sanctuaries to the Taliban and their Islamist (13) allies.

President Karzai has been under pressure to start negotiations with the Taliban since May. Taliban spokesperson Qari Yusof Ahmadi confirmed to the press that the Taliban were ready to directly negotiate with the Afghan government.(14) Daily Dawn inquired if the negotiations would address the larger questions confronting Afghanistan or would these be reduced to a few local deals in the south, would the talks conclude with establishment of real peace in Afghanistan or merely buy time for the belligerents? Who from the Taliban ranks would take part in the negotiations, would the majority of Taliban leadership come to the negotiation table or only a few disaffected commanders who were unhappy about the Taliban’s links to Al Qaeda. The so-called moderate Taliban or new- Taliban represented by their former foreign minister Maulawi Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil or their former ambassador to Pakistan, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaif, have already warned the government and the international community that they must negotiate with the Taliban or risk further violence and ascendance of hardcore Taliban who might refuse to negotiate at all.(15)

Taliban unveil hardline Afghan constitution According to the Daily Telegraph, the Taliban have published a shadow Afghan constitution outlining an alternative hard-line government to that of President Hamid Karzai. The constitution was approved by the Taliban’s central shura, headed by Mullah Omer, in 2005 but it has not been made public until now. “The publication of the constitution is only to make sure every citizen of Afghanistan gets it in black and white,” said Fath-ul-Kabir, Taliban commander from Ghazni.(16)

The “Constitution of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” came just after the UK Defence Secretary, Des Browne, expressed a need to involve the Taliban in the peace process.(17)

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The salient features of the constitution provide: • The education of women would be only within the limits of sharia and the government would enforce compliance with Sharai Hejab - that women fully cover themselves. • Importance of jihad as an obligation for every citizen. • Taliban's support for the United Nations and upholding of human rights – “until it is contrary to the teachings of

Islam.”

• “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan wishes good

working relations with all the neighbouring countries and specially those who have supported the Afghan nation during jihad.” • The greatest power is vested in an Emir-ul-Momineen, or leader of the faithful.

Taliban charter also provides that freedom of expression is guaranteed and every Afghan has the right to express his feelings through his views, writings or through other means in accordance with the law. However, “un-Islamic thought" is strictly forbidden and violators will be punished according to sharia. According to Ahmed Rashid, this was the first time the Taliban had clearly set out aims, previously their only source of guidance was the holy Quran. Karzai’s calls for peace talks were rejected by the Taliban, who called for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and the restoration of Islamic law. President Karzai and the United Nations have stipulated that a key condition for peace talks is that the Taliban must accept the constitution that was signed by Karzai in 2004.(18)

Comprehensive strategy

Militant attacks and military operations have killed more than

(19) 4,600 people so far this year, most of them insurgents. Living at the edge, having no guarantee of being alive the next day, the people of Afghanistan are still hopeful for peace in their country but they also know that the situation is very complex, which requires vision, patience and real leadership from Afghan government as well as the Taliban. In order to prevent the situation from further deterioration, it is important to have a comprehensive strategy in dealing with the Taliban, both military and diplomatic components.

It may be legal but is it appropriate? No one is saying it is illegal to use air power, but is there any other way of doing it if there is a risk of collateral damage?

Gen. Dan K. McNeill, the United States-NATO Commander in Kabul. (20)

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Notes and References

1. Charles Haviland, BBC News, Kabul, Monday, 13 August 2007. 2. Taimoor Shah and Carlotta Gall, “Afghan Rebels Find a Haven in Pakistan, Musharraf Says,” New York Times, 12 August 2007. 3. Ibid. 4. Bashirullah Khan, Associated Press, 24 August 2007http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2007/08/ 24/official_5_pakistani_soldiers_killed/. 5. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7003532.stm. 6. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7003532.stm. 7. www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2007/08/04/AR2007080401560_pf.html. 8. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C08 %5C06%5Cstory_6-8-2007_pg7_1. 9. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/06/ wpakistan106.xml. 10. Reuters, 6 August 2007. 11. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2007/08/29/AR2007082900552.html?hpid= sec-world. 12. Ibid 13. http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSISL23475200701 29. 14. Dawn, 21 September 2007. 15. Ibid. 16. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/ 09/29/wafg129.xml. 17. Ibid. 18. Ibid. 19. Jason Straziuso, Associated Press, 30 September 2007. 20. The NewYork Times, 09/08/2007,http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/09/world/asia/09c asualties.html?.

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