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Global Developments Tom Whipple, Editor Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA Monday, May 27, 2013 Current HEZBOLLAH SUPPORT FIRM IN FACE OF ATTACKS Developments Following the rocket attacks on Lebanese capital, residents of targeted areas rally behind Global the Shia movement. Middle East East Asia Discussion & Analysis The rockets came a day after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech marking Liberation Day Global Developments 1. OIL FALLS BELOW $94 A BARREL BANGKOK (AP, Monday, May 27, 2013) -- The price of oil fell Monday as traders concerned about global energy demand took profits ahead of economic data from China and the United States. Benchmark oil for July delivery was down 59 cents to $93.66 per barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 10 cents to $94.15 a barrel on Friday. Analysts said traders took profits before May unemployment data is released Tuesday in Washington, which should help clarify the state of the recovery in the world's biggest economy. "We're starting to build confidence in the economic data, but that's not going to stop anyone from taking money off the table ahead of a long weekend," Carl Larry of Oil Outlooks and Opinions said in a market commentary, referring to the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. on Monday. The global economic picture was clouded last week by a private survey showing weak Chinese manufacturing. That raised questions about the strength of oil demand in the world's No. 2 economy. Qinwei Wang, an economist with Capital Economics, said in a market commentary that recent Chinese indicators suggest that "general economic conditions remain downbeat." The more closely watched official manufacturing survey is due Saturday, Wang said. [more] 2. WTI EXTENDS LOSING STREAK AS CHINA SIGNALS IT MAY SLOW GROWTH (Bloomberg, Monday, May 27, 2013) -- West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a fifth day, the longest run of declines this year, as China signaled it may accept a slower economic growth rate. OPEC is expected to keep its supply target unchanged this week. Futures slid as much as 1 percent in New York, extending a 2 percent drop last week. China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, won't sacrifice the environment to ensure short- term growth, President Xi Jinping said during a study session of the Communist Party's leadership on May 24. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain its official output limit at 30 million barrels a day when the group meets May 31 in Vienna, according to a Bloomberg News survey. "We have slowing Chinese growth and demand and plenty of supply coming online in the U.S., so the feeling is that the market is oversupplied," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by telephone today. "There is a bit of risk." WTI for July delivery declined as much as 92 cents to $93.23 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.66 at 10:08 a.m. London time. The volume of all contracts traded was 53 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are little changed so far in May, after a 3.9 percent loss in April. [more] 3. IRAN TO DEFEND $100/BBL OIL PRICE AT OPEC MEETING LONDON (Dow Jones, Monday, May 27, 2013) -- ran said Sunday it will push to defend the current oil-price level of $100 a barrel when OPEC meets Friday, the second member to reiterate such views in recent days. The remarks come as delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are set to discuss competition with U.S. shale amid weak demand, when they meet this week in Vienna. "The main focus of talks in the next OPEC meeting will be an examination of supply and demand and our country will still support $100 a barrel for oil," Iran's OPEC governor Muhammad Ali Khatibi said. Mr. Khatibi was quoted as making the remarks by the country's oil ministry Website Shana. "Given the weak economic conditions of the industrial and developed countries, the global oil markets need to be managed," Mr. Khatibi said. Friday, Venezuela's oil minister, Rafael Ramirez, said the country will push to maintain the current oil production ceiling at the OPEC meeting in order to hold the price of the commodity near $100 per barrel. [more] 4. VENEZUELA TO SEEK MAINTAINING CURRENT OPEC PRODUCTION QUOTAS MORICHAL, Venezuela (Dow Jones, Monday, May 27, 2013) -- Venezuela will push to maintain current oil- production quotas at next week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna in order to hold the price of the commodity near $100 a barrel, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Friday. "Maintaining our commitment to 30 million barrels a day is something that we must do to defend our price," said Mr. Ramirez, who added that he was confident all OPEC members were in agreement with his government's target price. Mr. Ramirez also said he was concerned by the effect that global gas production was having on the price of oil, Venezuela's main commodity. "It's not just the U.S. [gas production] but on a general world level, there is the equivalent of more than five million barrels and that is having an effect on the global market. That displaces oil as fuel and it's an issue that needs to be discussed," Mr. Ramirez said. [more] Middle East & North Africa 5. IRAN REFORM CANDIDATE SAYS STATE TV CUTS BROADCAST TEHRAN, Iran (AP, Monday, May 27, 2013) -- The spokesman for a pro-reform Iranian presidential candidate says state television cut off his campaign broadcast unexpectedly, citing technical problems. Mohammad Reza Aref is one of two pro-reform candidates cleared by the Islamic Republic's constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council, to run in June 14 elections. Most other approved candidates were hard-liners, while their most charismatic challengers, including centrist Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were disqualified. Witnesses say Aref's Monday campaign pitch on the Jam-e Jam channel was stopped 15 minutes after it started, while he was saying he would make use of Rafsanjani's "experience" if he became president. Aref spokesman Hasan Rasouli spokesman said the candidate would seek "clarification" and ask that the program be rebroadcast. Jam-e Jam, which is aimed at Iranians living abroad, could not immediately be reached for comment. [more] 6. SUNNI GRIEVANCES DRIVE SPIKE IN IRAQ UNREST BAGHDAD (AFP, Monday, May 27, 2013) A feud between Iraqi Sunnis and the Shiite authorities they accuse of marginalising their community is driving a deadly spike in violence, but will stop short of all-out conflict for now, experts say. Attacks including bombings that ripped through worshippers in mosques and cut down shoppers in markets killed over 430 people in Iraq so far in May, 461 in April and 220 or more every other month this year, according to AFP figures. Crispin Hawes, the Middle East and North Africa director for the Eurasia Group consultancy, said policies of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that have politically isolated Iraqi Sunnis are the main factor behind the spike in violence. The policies and resulting isolation have encouraged both "radicalisation" and passive tolerance of militants among Sunnis, he said. "Pretty much since the last US soldier knocked the dust from his boots as he crossed the border (in late 2011), Maliki has gone after a succession of Sunni Arab politicians," Hawes said. Maliki made an unsuccessful call on MPs to remove Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlak, a Sunni who had said the premier was "worse than Saddam Hussein," the day that the last US soldiers left. [more] 7. IRAQ OFFICIALS SAYS SEPARATE ATTACKS KILL 14 BAGHDAD (AP, Monday, May 27, 2013) -- A string of attacks killed at least 14 people in Iraq on Sunday, officials said, in the latest violence of what has been a particularly bloody month in the country. Iraq has been hit by a wave of bloodshed that has killed some 300 people in the past two weeks alone, raising tensions between the country's Sunni minority and Shiite-led government. The surge in violence has been reminiscent of the sectarian carnage that pushed Iraq to the brink of civil war in 2006 and 2007. Sunday's deadliest attack took place in the northern city of Mosul, where a car bomb went off at a house early in the morning while a joint army-police unit was conducting door-to-door searches. The blast killed three policemen and one soldier, a provincial police officer said. Twenty people, including four civilians, were wounded. Also in Mosul, police said militants gunned down a policeman in his car in the city center. Authorities also found a body floating in the Tigris river, shot at close range with hands bound behind the back. Mosul, some 360 kilometers (225 miles) northwest of Baghdad, is a former stronghold of Sunni militants. In northern Baghdad's Kazimiyah district, militants in a speeding car went on a shooting spree that killed three civilians and wounded another, two police officers said. A policeman was killed in another attack in the northern Waziriya neighborhood when gunmen in two cars fired on his vehicle, wounding a colleague as well. [more] 8. IRAQI VOLUNTEERS JOIN BOTH SIDES OF WAR IN SYRIA (Radio Free Europe, Monday, May 27, 2013) No one knows precisely how many Iraqi volunteers are crossing the border to fight in Syria, but it is clear there are enough to keep a steady stream of corpses returning home for burial.
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