REGIONAL ANALYSIS SYRIA 28 March 2013 Part I – Syria Red flags indicate new information This Regional Analysis of the Syria Content Part I conflict (RAS) is an update of the February Overview RAS and seeks to bring together How to use the RAS? information from all sources in the region Priority needs and provide holistic analysis of the overall MAP - Key developments Syria crisis. While Part I focuses on the Information gaps and data limitations situation within Syria, Part II covers the Operational constraints impact of the crisis on the neighbouring Humanitarian profile countries. More information on how to Country sectoral analysis use this document can be found on page MAP - Estimated deaths per governorate 2. The Syria Needs Analysis Project MAP - Religious and ethnic composition welcomes all information that could Governorate profiles complement this report. For more Annex A: Definitions Humanitarian Profile information, comments or questions Annex B: Stakeholder profile (March update) please email [email protected]. Overview As the conflict entered its third year on 15 March, violence continued to escalate across the country with fighting intensifying in and around Damascus with mortar and artillery shelling reaching central areas of the city. As the battle for the capital intensifies, control over the supply lines to Jordan provide basic services is eroded. Although the winter has ended, the rise in has become increasingly significant resulting in an increase in violence in the temperatures as summer approaches brings new risks: with the health border governorate of Dar’a. Also in the south, anti-Government groups took structure severely damaged, limited availability of potable water and no several towns near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, fuelling tensions in garbage collection, diseases such as Typhoid and Hepatitis A are on the the sensitive military zone. In the north, opposition forces took control of Ar- increase. Although the food security situation is deteriorating with some Raqqa city on 4 March: the first time the Government has ceded control of a critical needs, cross-border trade, stocks of food held by the Government as major city. Since then the city has been subjected to heavy aerial well as by communities and food assistance to 1.7 million people have so far bombardment forcing over 200,000 people to flee – the highest level of prevented a nationwide life threatening food security crisis. The lack of law displacement recorded to date. In the city of Homs fierce conflict continues, and order and widespread fighting affects Syrians countrywide on a daily with Government forces launching a large-scale assault to retake opposition- basis, and the types of weapons used have increased in size and impact: held areas of the city. cluster munitions and ballistic missiles are reportedly regularly launched on While fighting continues, the opposition becomes more fractured. The Free populated areas. The Government and opposition forces have blamed each Syrian Army publicly refused to acknowledge the authority of Ghassan Hitto, other for the use of chemical weapons in Aleppo this month. the coalition-appointed Prime Minister for rebel-held areas in Syria. With the The fighting, insecurity and lack of services has forced many to flee, with the resignation of the head of the Syrian National Council, who pursued peace latest available data indicating that 3.8 million people have been displaced talks with the Government, and the election of a new Prime Minister who within Syria and an estimated 1.7 million have left the country. The scale of ruled out negotiations with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a negotiated the humanitarian crisis, the rapidly shifting security conditions and lack of end to the conflict remains remote. funding severely hamper relief interventions. Nevertheless, INGOs are increasingly able to provide aid to previously unaddressed areas, either via Meanwhile the humanitarian situation deteriorates on a daily basis as millions of Syrians are driven deeper into poverty and the ability of the Government to Turkey or through cross-line activities. Humanitarian activities continue through the SARC, Local Coordination Committees and local NGOs. Page 1 of 41 How to use the RAS? Priority needs This report is divided into three sections: The priority needs below are based on known information. Little or no information is available HoThew regional overview summarises the whole report into one page, highlighting the for the, relatively calm, governorates of As-Sweida, Hama, Tartous, Quneitra. In addition, key issues and developments of the last month. there is scarce information available on the current situation in Ar-Raqqa city and Rural Damascus governorate, although the humanitarian situation is reportedly dire. Part I focuses on the situation in Syria, firstly by outlining the issues on a country level and afterwards, in more depth, on a governorate level. As the conflict enters its third year, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. With hostilities escalating in and around densely populated areas Part II deals with the host countries Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq, and such as Damascus and Ar-Raqqa and the increased use of heavy weaponry, discusses the main humanitarian issues related to the crisis. the direct threat to life from the conflict still forms the most pressing The different parts and components can be read separately, according to information PROTECTION concern. Fighting continues in large parts of the country and it needs. While those working in a host country or a specific governorate might only be is becoming increasingly difficult to flee the on-going violence, with few safe interested in small parts of the report, individuals working on a regional level can benefit areas remaining. Both Iraq and Jordan temporarily closed border points in from reading all sections. March, hampering exit out of the country from Dar’a and Deir-ez-Zor. Human rights violations continue on a large scale, including gender based violence. The information in blue contains explanatory notes on the structure of this report while the Children are particularly affected by the crisis and child protection concerns information in red boxes outlines SNAP’s analysis. include recruitment into armed groups, torture, sexual violence and maiming. Opposition groups are becoming increasingly fragmented with fighting How to quote this document? between different factions leading to widespread insecurity and criminal activities, particularly in Aleppo city. SNAP encourages information sharing and all information in this report can be used in The FOOD security situation has not improved, and continues to be a priority other publications. Please note that most information is derived from secondary data and for all governorates. Although goods are generally available, the high prices the original source should be used when this information is used. The original source can and lack of income make access to food increasingly difficult. Access to food is be found at the end of a paragraph and if possible, the hyperlink to this source has been severely limited in areas under siege. made available. All information which is not sourced is based on SNAP’s own analysis HEALTH services in Aleppo, Damascus, Al-Hasakeh, Ar-Raqqa, Hama, Homs and should be quoted as such. and Deir-ez-Zor and in rural area of Dar’a are overwhelmed and in need of medical personnel, facilities, and supplies to treat trauma cases; disease and chronic illnesses such as diabetes. Waterborne diseases, including typhoid, are on the rise and access to WASH facilities is an increasing priority, particularly in areas facing extended electricity cuts; subject to large-scale structural damage and where Government services can no longer maintain water networks. As temperatures increase, access to potable water and adequate waste management becomes more and more important. The need for SHELTER and NFI for IDPs, of which there are currently estimated to be 3.8 million, remains significant as the destruction of homes and large-scale displacement from key conflict areas continues apace. Electricity cuts are affecting health services, water supply and the functioning of bakeries. Fuel is still widely unavailable. The EDUCATION system has been severely affected. More than 20% of schools are damaged or being used as shelters and many parents are reluctant to send their children to school, fearing for their safety. Consequently school attendance rates have fallen significantly in some areas, for instance to only 6% in Aleppo. Page 2 of 41 Latest developments March 2013 Aleppo City A joint rapid needs assessment in 52 neighbourhoods in Aleppo identified 2.4 million people in need and more than half a million displaced. High priorities for intervention are the protection of civilians, medical assistance, food assistance, prevention of malnutrition, shelter support, support to solid waste management and education. Both the Government and anti-Government forces accuse each other of using chemical weapons in the town of Khan al-Assal near Aleppo on 19 March. Capture of Ar-Raqqa Anti-Government forces take control of Ar- Raqqa city on 6 of March, the first provincial capital to fall. Conflict and subsequent government aerial bombardment led to the displacement of ~200,000 people. Displacement The estimated number of people displaced within Syria increased from 2.3 to 3.8 million IDPs. Around 5% of the IDPs are residing in Government run centres. Battle for Damascus Fighting moves closer to the centre of the city with mortar bombing and shelling on the central Umayyad Square. Anti-government forces are Access The UN plan to evacuate half of their thought to be preparing for a decisive assault. Border closures international staff members due to security Conflict in the vicinity of border crossings has concerns. Heavy fighting and insecurity are led to the temporary closure of Daraa hampering relief efforts and parts of the crossing to Jordan and the Rabi’aa crossing country are inaccessible.