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Panorama Geopolítico 2013 Panorama geopolítico de los Instituto Español conflictos 2013 de Estudios Estratégicos MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Panorama geopolítico de los Instituto Español conflictos 2013 de Estudios Estratégicos MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA www.bibliotecavirtualdefensa.es © Autor y editor, 2013 NIPO: 083-13-223-2 (edición papel) NIPO: 083-13-222-7 (edición libro-e) ISBN: 978-84-9781-882-7 (edición papel) ISBN: 978-84-9781-883-4 (edición libro-e) Depósito Legal: M-28185-2013 Imprime: Imprenta Ministerio de Defensa Fecha de edición: enero 2014 Las opiniones emitidas en esta publicación son exclusiva responsabilidad del autor de la misma. Los derechos de explotación de esta obra están amparados por la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual. Ninguna de las partes de la misma puede ser reproducida, almacenada ni transmitida en ninguna forma ni por medio alguno, electrónico, mecánico o de grabación, incluido fotocopias, o por cualquier otra forma, sin permiso previo, expreso y por escrito de los titulares del © Copyright. En esta edición se ha utilizado papel 100% reciclado libre de cloro. ÍNDICE Capítulo primero La evolución de los conflictos .......................................................................... 9 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 11 Los paradigmas sociopolíticos y los conflictos ................................................... 11 La evolución de las guerras .................................................................................... 14 Los conflictos actuales ............................................................................................. 17 La evolución de las capacidades ............................................................................ 19 La evolución de las estrategias .............................................................................. 21 Capítulo segundo Mali: seguridad, democracia y desarrollo para superar el conflicto .... 29 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 31 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 33 Situación actual del conflicto .................................................................................. 44 El papel de los actores externos ........................................................................... 52 Conclusiones y perspectiva ..................................................................................... 55 Indicadores geopolíticos .......................................................................................... 57 Cronología ................................................................................................................... 58 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 60 Capítulo tercero Siria: guerra, sectarismo y caos ..................................................................... 63 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 65 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 66 Situación actual del conflicto .................................................................................. 67 El papel de los actores externos ............................................................................ 80 Conclusiones y perspectiva ..................................................................................... 95 Cronología ................................................................................................................... 96 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 100 5 Página Capítulo cuarto Georgia y sus territorios secesionistas: más allá del punto de no retorno ............................................................................................................... 101 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 103 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 104 Situación actual del conflicto .................................................................................. 117 El papel de los actores externos ............................................................................ 118 Conclusiones y perspectiva ..................................................................................... 118 Indicadores geopolíticos .......................................................................................... 120 Cronología ................................................................................................................... 121 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 125 Capítulo quinto El estrecho de Ormuz. En el ojo del huracán ............................................ 127 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 129 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 132 Situación actual del conflicto .................................................................................. 133 El papel de los actores externos ............................................................................ 144 Conclusiones y perspectiva ..................................................................................... 145 Indicadores geopolíticos .......................................................................................... 147 Cronología .................................................................................................................. 149 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 149 Capítulo sexto La frágil estabilidad marfileña: entre el mal menor y el conflicto abierto ................................................................................................................ 153 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 155 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 159 Situación actual del conflicto .................................................................................. 169 El papel de los actores externos ............................................................................ 172 Conclusiones y perspectiva ..................................................................................... 177 Indicadores geopolíticos .......................................................................................... 178 Cronología ................................................................................................................... 180 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 181 Capítulo séptimo Kenia: la politización de la diversidad ......................................................... 183 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 185 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 194 Situación actual del conflicto .................................................................................. 196 El papel de los actores externos ............................................................................ 198 Conclusiones y perspectivas de futuro ................................................................. 202 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 205 Capítulo octavo Conflicto y conflictividad en el valle de la Ferganá ................................ 209 Introducción ................................................................................................................ 211 Antecedentes del conflicto....................................................................................... 216 Situación actual del conflicto. Los países del valle. Problemática com- partida ........................................................................................................ 220 El papel de los actores externos ............................................................................ 227 Conclusiones y perspectiva ..................................................................................... 231 Indicadores geopolíticos .......................................................................................... 233 6 Página Cronología ................................................................................................................... 234 Bibliografía .................................................................................................................. 236 Capítulo noveno Afganistán: en vísperas del decisivo 2014................................................
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