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Investor & Analyst Day 2020 Start: 1.30Pm Welcome Start: 1.30pm CET MTU Aero Engines AG – Investor & Analyst Day 2020 Agenda MTU´s Market Environment | COVID-19 1 Reiner Winkler | Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Product Portfolio | Opportunities 2 Michael Schreyögg | Chief Program Officer (CPO) Technology Roadmap | Cost Leadership 3 Lars Wagner | Chief Operating Officer (COO) Financials | Outlook 2021 4 Peter Kameritsch | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Executive Summary 5 Reiner Winkler | Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Q&A Session MTU´s Market Environment | COVID-19 Reiner Winkler | Chief Executive Officer (CEO) An entire industry is on the test bench. Flights matter more to our business than headline traffic figures Passenger traffic and capacity Passenger aircraft flight cycles YTD, Jan – Sep YTD, up to CW 44 Global International Domestic Total Single-aisle Twin-aisle -38% -51% -48% -47% -56% -53% -65% -66% -72% RPK ASK • Capacity (ASK) is not performing as bad as traffic (RPK) • Flights or cycles are important to MTU's business • Domestic markets have been a focus for many airlines as • Flight cycles from passenger aircraft about 50% below 2019 levels the global pandemic continues to batter international travel Source: IATA, FlightRadar24 November 19, 2020 5 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Global passenger flights have plateaued since August, Asia, led by China, recovers faster ∆ Worldwide flight cycles year-on-year by week Flight cycles Passenger Cargo YTD in regions 40% 20% Cargo World -48% +16% 0% Asia (incl. China & -20% -42% +30% Asia-Pacific) -40% Passenger -60% Europe -60% +6% -80% -100% 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 CW North America -43% +14% *Cargo: Traffic from purpose-built cargo aircraft, excluding belly freight and passenger models Source: FlightRadar24, MTU November 19, 2020 6 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Domestic passenger flights in China have now recovered – so have V2500 and GTF there ∆ Flights year-on-year by week Market development 150% • China Southern Airlines became first of “Big 3” to return to operating profit in 100% Chinese National last quarter with ~40% revenue Holiday Week decline; other carriers narrowed losses. • China’s October 2020 Purchasing 50% Cargo Manager Index (PMI) reaches highest level in ten years (51.4), indicating 0% strong pace of Chinese economic Passenger recovery. Values >50 indicate economic expansion. -50% • Infection cases edging up on very low level –recent reports of 30-50 new -100% cases on most days. Only 4 new 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 CW deaths in last 50 days per WHO data. *Cargo: Traffic from purpose-built cargo aircraft, excluding belly freight and passenger models Source: FlightRadar24, MTU November 19, 2020 7 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Latest MTU engine models are recovering the fastest Development of flights with PW1100G-JM Development of flights with GEnx-1B/-2B 16,740 18,000 9,000 8,112 15,818 16,000 8,000 14,000 7,000 12,000 6,000 5,667 flights flights 10,000 5,000 of of 8,000 4,000 6,000 3,000 Number Number 4,000 2,000 930 1,450 2,000 1,000 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 Calendar week Calendar week GEnx Passenger GEnx Cargo Source: FR24 tracked flights year-on-year by week 2019 vs. 2020; Number of flights from 2020 Source: FR24 tracked flights year-on-year by week 2019 vs. 2020; Number of flights from 2020 November 19, 2020 8 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. MTU benefits from an above-average share of engines in freight service Cargo flights until CW44 vs. 2019 Airliner fleet breakdown by usage MTU engines on dedicated freighters Total Single-aisle Twin-aisle Industry MTU 30% 100% PW2000 JT8D-200 20% 20% GEnx 16% 13% 10% CF6 ~22% ~14% 0% 0% Freighter Passenger • In the absence of belly capacity, dedicated • 35,000 aircraft* in service in September 2020 • 2,200 MTU freighter engines have remained freighters saw a jump in flight activities with of which 14% is exclusively cargo service in service since 2019, mostly on Boeing 757, +16% y-o-y • 10,000 aircraft with MTU engines with a 767, 747 • Only 9% of freighters are parked compared higher share of engines in cargo service • Even modern passenger Boeing 787s were with 33% for passenger aircraft (September (22%) employed as “preighters” to carry cargo 2020) on the main deck Source: IATA, Cirium Fleets Analyzer | *Airbus and Boeing passenger and freighter aircraft November 19, 2020 9 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. The pandemic is going to keep interest rates and oil prices low, supporting our industry US interest rates (fed fund rate upper bound) Oil price [in %] 3 2,5 71 2 64 1,5 41 1 0,5 0 2016 2020 2018 2019 2020F Dec 1 Jun20161 Jun20171 Jun20181 Jun20191 Jun1 1 Dec 1 2015 1 Dec 1 2017 Dec 1 2018 Dec 1 2019 • US interest rates are being reduced, supporting the OE backlog • After OPEC+* nations restrained their production and major economies gradually • Lessors can use their credit rating to access cheap capital and acquire aircraft lifted Covid-19 restrictions, Brent crude prices stabilized at $40 – 45/barrel owned by distressed airlines through sales and lease back deals • IATA estimated in June 2020 that lower fuel prices should save airlines over $100bn in 2020, helping cushion the blow of a forecasted $400bn drop in revenues this year • The situation is helpful, slowing down retirements of mature engine fleets Source: Bloomberg Source: US Energy Information Administration | *OPEC incl. Russia November 19, 2020 10 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. As airlines deferred orders, airframers have adjusted rates A320 to make up majority of 2020 industry deliveries Monthly rate 2019 Adjusted rates # Aircraft on order A220 4 2+ 2.500 A320 60 40 31.12.2019 A330 4 2 2.000 30.09.2020 A350 10 5 1.500 737 52/42 Restart 1.000 787 14 6 500 767 3 3 0 777 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 5/777X 2021 2/777X 2022 747 0.5 0.5, EoP 2022 • The order backlog has declined by 5% from 13,100 to 12,500 aircraft* in the first • Airframers rapidly adjusted rates, limiting the blow to in-service fleets, 9M of 2020. Single-aisles make up 86% of the backlog and A220/A320 make up an unprecedented reaction compared to past downcycles 60% of the single-aisle backlog. GTF makes up ~45% of Airbus single-aisles • 700 completed aircraft are in Boeing and Airbus' current inventory • 4% (or ~500 aircraft) of the order backlog was cancelled (80% 737MAX) • Forecasters see between 600 and 800 Airbus and Boeing deliveries for 2020 • 400 new orders were placed with 90% A220/A320 depending on 737MAX restart. Aircraft with MTU engines to make up ~330 units Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Airframers’ announcements | *Airbus and Boeing passenger and freighter aircraft November 19, 2020 11 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Positive implications for MTU are derived from trends and strategies in the leasing market Positive effects from the leasing market NB Ownership lessor NB Ownership airline • Lessors own >50% of commercial airlines' narrow-body fleet and share will increase 52% 48% • Lessors have access to capital markets and provide a “capital lifeline” to the airline industry • New order cancellations centered on MAX aircraft and new order deferrals help balance demand and supply Lessor order cancellations YTD • Sale and lease back deals as well as rental deferrals support airlines in keeping existing fleets Lessor order deferrals YTD • Lessors maintain sufficient liquidity by issuing bonds Sale and lease back deals YTD • Lessors directly and indirectly order MRO regularly through lease return shop visits and MRO after repossession 0 100 200 300 400 A/C November 19, 2020 12 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Positive implications for MTU are derived from trends and strategies in the leasing market Lessors support airlines to keep existing fleets Parked fleets expected to be reactivated, supporting (and lease contracts) running through rent deferrals, profitable MRO demand on older A/C, delaying 1 contract renegotiations and new order cancellations tear-downs Lessors are PMA-unfriendly Less PMA risk, more OEM spare parts 2 (safeguard asset value) Lessors are risk-averse and demand high lease return conditions and high build up Higher MRO volume 3 goals during shop visits Airlines avoid MRO due to cash constraints and Lessors repossess A/C and MRO volume ordered by 4 eventually go into insolvency lessors absorbs some lost airline MRO volume November 19, 2020 13 © MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. MTU expects an early recovery in single-aisle cycles Single-aisle aircraft cycles [Millions] 50 Recovery driven by single-aisles • Return to 2019 global traffic levels expected between 2023 and 2024 but earlier for domestic travel 40 • Strong MTU presence in the narrow-body market • Despite general pessimism exacerbated by a 2nd wave in parts 30 of the world, there are some positive developments: First reports on the low-risk of COVID-19 transmission onboard Travel bubbles or corridors are being formed in parts of the world to 20 restart travel between neighboring countries (AUS-NZ, SIN-HK) From 220 vaccine possibilities, 12 are in phase 3 and 6 approved for 10 early or limited use BioNTech/Pfizer announce breakthrough in vaccine development – study suggests ~90% efficacy 0 • The fundamentals that have driven air travel growth in the past decades, 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 despite periodic shocks, remain intact Source: MTU November 19, 2020 14 © MTU Aero Engines AG.
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