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Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050 | IATA

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Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050 | IATA Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050 NOTICE DISCLAIMER. The information contained in this publication is subject to constant review in the light of changing government requirements and regulations. No subscriber or other reader should act on the basis of any such information without referring to applicable laws and regulations and/or without taking appropriate professional advice. Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the International Air Transport Association shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by errors, omissions, misprints or misinterpretation of the contents hereof. Furthermore, the International Air Transport Association expressly disclaims any and all liability to any person or entity, whether a purchaser of this publication or not, in respect of anything done or omitted, and the consequences of anything done or omitted, by any such person or entity in reliance on the contents of this publication. © International Air Transport Association. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, recast, reformatted or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission from: Senior Vice President Member & External Relations International Air Transport Association 33, Route de l’Aéroport 1215 Geneva 15 Airport Switzerland Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figures .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Tables ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 1.1. Background ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2. Scope of this Report ................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 1.3. Technology Objectives ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11 2. Evolutionary Aircraft Technologies ................................................................................................................................................................. 14 2.1. Baseline Fleet and Imminent Aircraft .................................................................................................................................................. 14 2.2. Future Technologies ................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 2.3. Individual Technologies ........................................................................................................................................................................... 18 3. Revolutionary Aircraft Technologies .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 3.1. Novel Airframe Configurations .............................................................................................................................................................. 21 3.2. Revolutionary Structure and Materials ............................................................................................................................................... 24 3.3. Revolutionary Propulsion Technology ................................................................................................................................................ 25 3.4. Assessment of Revolutionary Technology Concepts and Deployment Challenges ......................................................... 31 3.5. Economic Aspects of Revolutionary Aircraft Development Programs .................................................................................. 34 4. Modelling Future Aircraft Emissions ............................................................................................................................................................... 36 4.1. Selection of Technology Scenarios .................................................................................................................................................... 36 4.2. Fleet Simulation Results ........................................................................................................................................................................... 38 4.3. Technology and Aircraft Program Sensitivity: Fuel Calculation Results ............................................................................... 39 4.4. Annual CO2 Improvements at Global Fleet Level ............................................................................................................................ 41 5. Disruptive Technologies ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 6. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................................. 45 7. References ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51 3 Abbreviations ACARE Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe APU Auxiliary Power Unit ASK Available Seat Kilometer ATRU Auto Transformer Rectifier Unit BLADE Breakthrough Laminar Aircraft Demonstrator in Europe BLI Boundary-Layer Ingestion BPR Bypass Ratio BWB Blended Wing Body CENTRELINE Concept validation study for fuselage wakefillIng propulsion integration CLEEN Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise CO2 Carbon Dioxide CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation DC Direct Current DLR German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) DOC Direct Operating Costs EGTS Electric Green Taxiing System EIS Entry into Service ERA Environmentally Responsible Aviation GARDN Green Aviation Research and Development Network HLFC Hybrid Laminar Flow Control HWB Hybrid Wing Body IATA International Air Transport Association ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization InP In-production LUC Land-Use Change MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology NASA National Aeronautics and Space Agency NLF Natural Laminar Flow NMA New Midsize Aircraft NT New Type PFC Propulsive Fuselage Concept RPK Revenue Passenger Kilometer R&T Research and Technology SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel SAW Spanwise Adaptive Wing SMA Shape Memory Alloy SUGAR Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research TRL Technology Readiness Level VTOL Vertical Take-Off and Landing 4 Figures Figure 1: Evolution of Aircraft Technology ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 2: (Left) Commercial aviation CO2 emissions (right scale) compared to overall anthropogenic CO2 emissions (left scale), broken down into industrial emissions (fossil fuel and cement) and land use change (LUC) (from [2]); (Right) Commercial aviation CO2 emissions compared to overall anthropogenic CO2 emissions .................................................................. 10 Figure 3: Schematic CO2 emissions reduction roadmap................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4: Timeline of expected future fuel efficiency improvements compared to predecessor aircraft or engine of the same category, details are given in Chapters 2 and 3 ...................................................................................................................................................
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