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Economic Survey 1991/04

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Economic Survey 1991/04 En pblhd fr t r b th rh prtnt f th Cntrl r f Sttt f r h ntn nt nd nl f n Srv trnd n r bd n th ltt rtrl ntnl nt dt h pbltn rlrl prnt n fr fr th nnl ntnl nt Othr rtl r ltd fr th t f vr prjt n th rh prtnt prdtn prttd th ndtn f r (l r/ Edtrl tff Olv jrhlt Adn Cppln Erln ltt Olv jn - rnt rntn Øtn Oln Edtrl tnt Wnh rz (rtl bth r (n rv h rh tblhd 195 prtnt o d f th rh prtnt Olv jrhtt Atnt drtr nrl * Adntrtv nt nn ntd d f Adntrtn * E nt jørn l tn d f dvn h rh prtnt td rnzd n fr dvn o vn fr bl En (Olv jn rtr f rh * bl n tx " br nd dtn * nl nl o trl r vn (rnt rntn rtr f rh * Envrnntl n * trl n * Enr rt o Mrn vn (Adn Cppln rtr f rh * En nl " Mrn dl * Elbr dl o Mrntr vn (hn K v rtr f rh * trbtnl nl lbr ppl * Cnr bhvr * rdtvt prfrn n th bn tr t (: ("i) run C nievY 4/9 1 100000000 000000000000001/0000410004110000001110111000000 CONTENTS Economic Trends Summary 3 Outlook for 1991 and 1992 12 New developments in the perspectives for natural gas trade in Europe 16 Economic trends in the Nordic countries 32 Cntrl r f Sttt f r O x 8 p -00 Ol 1 l: Q4-2-86 4 00 lfx: +4-2-86 4 The present issue of Economic Survey contains a review of current economic trends in Norway and an outlook for 1991 and 1992. The main source of information is the quarterly national account system, which is based on less detailed information than the annual national accounts. The cut-off date for information used in this publication was 4 December 1991. Economic Trends in Norway has been prepared by the Research Department in the Central Bureau of Statistics. Inquiries should be directed to Knut Mourn or Øystein Olsen. In addition, the present issue includes a discussion of the future market for naturial gas in Euro- pe, and an overview of the current economic situation in the Nordic countries. ECONOMIC TRENDS Summary Provisional figures from the quarterly national ac- OECD countries, however, is also easing. The counts indicate that demand from mainland Nor- growth in wages in Norway is likely to be about 5 way is picking up. Private consumption increased per cent in 1991, which is approximately on a par by nearly 2 percent from the second to third quarter. with the previous year. Investment demand, on the other hand, remains Projections based on the Central Bureau of Sta- weak, partly as a result of a continued strong decline tistics macroeconomic model KVARTS indicate in investment in dwellings and other buildings. that the mainland economy will grow faster next Manufacturing investment is likely to show a noti- year than in 1991. Both private consumption and ceable growth from 1990 to 1991. Investment in investment in mainland Norway are expected to manufacturing industry, however, showed a decli- pick up. According to the calculations, however, ne in the second and third quarters of this year, and this upturn in domestic demand will result in only we now expect a weaker trend in the period ahead a modest growth in employment. than previously envisaged. While production of crude oil reached a record level in the third quarter of this year, traditional MAIN TRENDS N ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS merchandise exports continued to fall. This deve- Growth from previous quarter, seasonally adjusted. lopment is related to the weak international econo- Per centl) mic situation where countries which represent im- portant Norwegian export markets are experiencing 90.4 91.1 91.2 91.3 sluggish and, in part, negative growth. The fore- Demand and output casts for next year point to stronger economic volume indicators growth for our trading partners. The picture, how- Final domestic use of ever, seems somewhat more uncertain than a few goods and services 4.0 -2.1 0.5 -2.8 months ago, partly because the projected economic - Demand from recovery in the US has failed to materialize. mainland Norway 1.5 -1.5 -1.5 1.5 Price inflation in Norway, measured by the Con- - Private consumption -0.4 -0.1 -1.4 1.9 sumer Price Index, has abated considerably thus far - Government consumption 3.8 -1.9 0.5 1.2 in 1991, and will probably be down to less than 3 - Gross fixed capital 1/2 per cent for the year as a whole. This is noticea- formation, mainland bly lower than the rate of price increase for our Norway 5.0 -5.2 -4.8 0.2 trading partners. The rate of inflation in other Eksport 2.6 -0.9 5.3 -1.6 - Traditional goods -2.9 1.4 -1.1 -2.7 Imports 8.4 -5.5 6.6 -6.0 - Traditional goods 3.7 -5.3 5.9 -4.4 CYCLICAL DEVELOPMENT GDP 1.7 -0.3 0.4 -1.0 (Per cent growth from previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed. Annual rates.) - Mainland Norway 0.3 -0.4 -0.0 -0.7 15 Labour market -1.5Man-hours worked -0.5 0.3 -0.4 10 • Employed persons -0.2 -1.4 -0.6 2.1 Unemployment rate2) 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.6 5 Prices Consumer Price Index3)4.5 3.8 3.7 3.5 " O Income -5 Current b4lance, NOK bn4) 13.1 6.5 10.0 12.7 I 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 1)See "Technical comment". 2) Seasonally adjusted levels in per cent. GDP • • • • • Exports of - • Final demand 3) Growth from same period previous year. mainland traditional from mainland Norway 1) goods Norway 1) 4) Unadjusted levels in NOK bn. 1) Excl. oil and ocean transport. 4 ECONOMIC SURVEY International economy: Economic recovery GNP/GDP GROWTH FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES fails to materialize Per cent 5 The international economic situation is marked by greater uncertainty concerning the projected econo- 4 mic recovery in the US. After the end of the Gulf 3 war most observers were of the view that conditions were suitable for rising economic growth in the US 2 in the second half of this year and later in 1992 (cf. Economic Survey 3/91). In recent months, how- ever, several economic indicators have shown a weaker than expected trend. It is particularly private o consumption that has shown signs of weakening. The background for this seems to be a feature which -1 recurs in the description of the situation in many -2 OECD countries: After a number of years of debt USA JAP GER UK SWE DEN accumulation, households now have a need for e222 1991 Eli 1992 financial consolidation and have increased their saving faster than assumed earlier. To stimulate economic activity the Federal Reserve in the US has at various times lowered interest rates on its loans to banks, and the GROWTH IN CONSUMER PRICES Federal Funds rate is now down Per cent to 4 3/4 per cent. Monetary policy, however, has so 10 far not had a visible stimulatory effect on demand. Reduced expectations concerning the growth po- tential in the US economy contributed to the sharp 8 drop in share prices on the New York Stock Ex- change (and on bourses in most other countries) in 6 mid-November. However, there is reason to assu- me that this represented an adjustment of expecta- tions concerning the timing and the strenght of the 4 recovery many have waited for. The forecasts still point to an economic upturn in the US towards the 2 end of this year and later in 1992, but there is reason to assume that this may be substantially weaker o than earlier recoveries. USA JAP GER UK S'VVE DEN In both Japan and Germany (West) there has been a market slowdown in the rate of growth in OM) 1991 1992 production and demand through 1991. In Japan, it is particularly investment demand which is recor- ding a noticeably weaker trend than has been the a combined Germany, a current account surplus of case in recent years. Private consumption as well is DEM 64.5 billion in 1990 will be reversed to a probably now growing at a slower pace than earlier, sizeable deficit in 1991 (DEM 32 billion in the first while exports continued to make a positive contri- three quarters). Combined with a rise in wages and bution to the total production performance. prices that has been stronger than usual in Germany The nature of the economic situation in Germany the last few years, public budget deficits have re- is in the process of changing. GNP growth in the sulted in renewed upward pressures on the interest West has been reduced, while the East, which has rate level. This may counteract a further decline in experienced a dramatic loss of production, will interest rates in other OECD countries. probably register positive growth next year. Tax In the UK, GDP is projected to fall by some 2 per increases were carried out in Germany (West) in cent in 1991. The cyclical downturn has resulted in July this year to finance transfers and economic a sharp increase in the number of unemployed; the measures in the East. Along with rising price infla- rise from 1990 to 1991 will be about 600 000. The tion and a higher interest rate level, this has contri- rate of increase in consumer prices, on the other buted to slowing private consumption.
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