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China's Pursuit of Overseas Security

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China's Pursuit of Overseas Security China’s Pursuit of Overseas Security Timothy R. Heath C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2271 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: U.S. Navy, Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Rob Aylward Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In recent years, China’s military has begun to expand its presence abroad. Yet the pace and scope of Chinese international military operations and activities remains modest compared with the country’s expanding array of economic and strategic interests. This report seeks to better understand how China is pursuing security for its overseas interests. It surveys the threats facing Chinese interests abroad, the range of forces available to counter those threats, and the missions and tasks that are likely to be undertaken by security-related forces. This report also considers some implications of China’s approach for the United States. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Table ..............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................xiii Abbreviations ...................................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Methodology and Organization of This Report .............................................................. 5 CHAPTER TWO Overseas Interests, Threats, and Domestic Influences ................................................... 7 China’s Overseas Interests ....................................................................................... 7 International Factors: Security Environment and Threats .................................................13 Domestic Influences: China’s History Shapes Approach ...................................................16 CHAPTER THREE Forces Available to Protect Chinese Interests Abroad ..................................................21 Official Policies Emphasize Diverse Forces ..................................................................21 Host-Nation–Provided Security Forces ..................................................................... 23 State-Owned Enterprises ...................................................................................... 24 Commercial Security Contractors ............................................................................25 People’s Armed Police .......................................................................................... 26 Chinese Coast Guard and Maritime Militia ................................................................ 26 People’s Liberation Army ...................................................................................... 27 CHAPTER FOUR Missions and Tasks ...........................................................................................33 Personal Security ............................................................................................... 34 Asset Security ................................................................................................... 34 Sea Lines of Communication Protection ....................................................................35 Noncombatant Evacuation Operation ...................................................................... 36 Peacekeeping Operations ...................................................................................... 36 Counterterrorism ............................................................................................... 36 Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief ....................................................................37 Combat Against Nonstate Threats ............................................................................37 v vi China’s Pursuit of Security for Overseas Interests CHAPTER FIVE Conclusion .....................................................................................................39 Implications for the United States ............................................................................41 Bibliography ................................................................................................... 43 Figures and Table Figures 2.1. Crude Oil Imports by Source ..................................................................... 8 2.2. Chinese Global Investment, 2005–2017 ......................................................... 9 2.3. Belt and Road Initiative ...........................................................................11 3.1. China’s Top Export Destination for Arms Sales, 2012–2016 ............................... 24 3.2. Estimated Monthly Average of Chinese Forces Abroad .......................................32 Table 4.1. Chinese Forces Capable of Missions to Protect Overseas Interests ..........................33 vii Summary China’s ascent as the world’s second-largest economy has brought the country tremendous prosperity, but integration into the global economy has also exposed growing numbers of its citizens and their assets to potential harm. According to Chinese authorities, 30,000 of the country’s enterprises are located overseas, and more than 100 million Chinese citizens travel abroad annually.1 Dangers in distant lands menace the markets, resources, and investments upon which China’s economy now depends. In the words of the country’s 2015 Military Strat- egy White Paper, China has become “more vulnerable to international and regional turmoil, terrorism, piracy, and serious natural disasters and epidemics.”2 Chinese leaders have accord- ingly elevated in priority the provision of security for the country’s overseas interests. This report examines the question of how China can provide security for its growing array of overseas economic and strategic interests. It also seeks to understand how China’s approach might provide opportunities or raise concerns for the United States. The report seeks to answer the following questions: • How will China protect its citizens and their economic assets in distant countries? • What sort of military capabilities or other arrangements might China pursue accord- ingly? • What will China’s approach to security abroad mean for the United States and its allies and partners? How China decides to protect its overseas interests carries important implications for international politics and for the country’s own economic prospects. The size and strength of any military forces stationed abroad could affect the course of an international crisis or prospects for collaboration with the United States on shared concerns. Insight into China’s approach to protecting overseas interests can also shed light on the economic feasibility of major Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure investment projects in fragile states. If China lacks a reliable way to protect its interests in unstable countries, ambitious infrastructure and investment projects could suffer heavy losses or remain unrealized. History offers precedents in which rising nations struggled with the security implications of their increasing integration into an international economy. Many of history’s most power- ful countries fueled their growth, in part, through trade and investment abroad. To secure 1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “‘Full Text’ of PRC FM Wang Yi’s Speech at U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies,” webpage, February 26, 2016. 2 Information Office
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