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Future Ready? Science, Reading Literacy and Mathematics in PISA 2015 Reading Science, on in Ireland of 15-year-olds The Performance Ready? Future Future Ready? The Performance of 15-year-olds in Ireland on Science, Reading Literacy and Mathematics in PISA 2015 Shiel = Kelleher = McKeown = Denner Educational Research Centre, St Patrick’s College Campus, Dublin 9 Gerry Shiel, Cathy Kelleher, Caroline McKeown and www.erc.ie Sylvia Denner ISBN 978-0-900440-53-3 ERC 9 780900 440533 Educational Research Centre Future Ready? The Performance of 15-year-olds in Ireland on Science, Reading Literacy and Mathematics in PISA 2015 Future Ready? The Performance of 15-year-olds in Ireland on Science, Reading Literacy and Mathematics in PISA 2015 Gerry Shiel Cathy Kelleher Caroline McKeown Sylvia Denner Educational Research Centre Copyright © 2016, Educational Research Centre, St Patrick’s Campus, Dublin 9 http://www.erc.ie Cataloguing-in-publication data: Shiel, Gerry. Future Ready? The Performance of 15-year-olds in Ireland on Science, Reading Literacy and Mathematics in PISA 2015 / Gerry Shiel, Cathy Kelleher, Caroline McKeown, Sylvia Denner. Dublin: Educational Research Centre xx, 212p., 30cm ISBN: 978 0 900440 53 3 1. Programme for International Student Assessment (Project) 2. Science (Secondary) – Ireland 3. Reading (Secondary) – Ireland 4. Mathematics (Secondary) – Ireland 5. Academic achievement 6. Educational surveys – Ireland 2016 (Issue 2, 21 February 2017) I Title. II Kelleher, Cathy. III McKeown, Caroline. IV Denner, Sylvia. 371.262 Printed in the Republic of Ireland by Naas Printing Limited, Naas, Co. Kildare. Table of Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................viii Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... ix Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1: Overview and Implementation of PISA 2015 ................................................................ 1 1.1. Framework for Science .............................................................................................................. 3 1.2. Framework for Reading Literacy ................................................................................................ 7 1.3. Framework for Mathematics ................................................................................................... 11 1.4. Questionnaire Framework ....................................................................................................... 15 1.5. Implementation of PISA 2015 in Ireland .................................................................................. 20 1.6. Scaling of PISA Test Data .......................................................................................................... 25 1.7. Interpreting the Analyses in this Report .................................................................................. 28 1.8. Summary and Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 30 Chapter 2: Performance, Research and Policy Contexts of PISA 2015 in Ireland ............................ 35 2.1. Performance in Earlier PISA Cycles and in Other International Studies .................................. 35 2.2. Factors Associated with Performance on PISA ........................................................................ 44 2.3. Recent Policy Initiatives Relevant to PISA ................................................................................ 47 2.4. Summary and Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 51 Chapter 3: The Transition to Computer-based Testing in PISA ..................................................... 55 3.1. Comparisons of Paper-based and Computer-based Tests ....................................................... 55 3.2. Computer-based Assessments in Earlier PISA Cycles ............................................................... 56 3.3. The PISA 2015 Field Trial Mode Study ..................................................................................... 60 3.4. A Review of PISA 2015 Science Items ...................................................................................... 62 3.5. Summary and Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 65 Chapter 4: Performance on PISA 2015 Science ............................................................................ 69 4.1. Overall Performance on Science .............................................................................................. 69 4.2. Variation in Performance on Overall Science .......................................................................... 71 4.3. Performance on Science Proficiency Levels ............................................................................. 72 4.4. Performance on Science Subscales .......................................................................................... 75 4.5. Gender Differences in Science Performance ........................................................................... 78 4.6. Summary and Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 80 v Chapter 5: Performance on PISA 2015 Reading Literacy and Mathematics ................................... 83 5.1. Overall Performance on Reading Literacy................................................................................ 83 5.2. Variation in Performance on Reading Literacy ........................................................................ 84 5.3. Performance on Reading Proficiency Levels ............................................................................ 85 5.4. Gender Differences on Reading Literacy .................................................................................. 88 5.5. Overall Performance on Mathematics ..................................................................................... 89 5.6. Variation in Performance on Mathematics .............................................................................. 91 5.7. Performance on Mathematics Proficiency Levels .................................................................... 91 5.8. Gender Differences on Mathematics ....................................................................................... 94 5.9. Summary and Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 95 Chapter 6: Student- and School-level Associations with Achievement in PISA 2015 ...................... 97 6.1. Student Background Characteristics ........................................................................................ 97 6.2. School Background Characteristics ........................................................................................ 107 6.3. Summary and Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 116 Chapter 7: Students’ Engagement, Motivation and Attitudes towards Science in PISA 2015 ....... 119 7.1. Science Engagement .............................................................................................................. 119 7.2. Motivation for Science Learning ............................................................................................ 126 7.3. Science Self Beliefs ................................................................................................................. 130 7.4. Students’ Beliefs about Science ............................................................................................. 132 7.5. Summary and Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 136 Chapter 8: Trends in Performance and School and Student Variables ........................................ 139 8.1. Trends in Science Performance .............................................................................................. 139 8.2. Trends in Reading Literacy Performance ............................................................................... 148 8.3. Trends in Mathematics Performance..................................................................................... 154 8.4. Trends in Performance Related to School and Student Factors ............................................ 159 8.5. Trends in Students’ Attitudes, Self-beliefs, Engagement with Science, and Career Expectations .................................................................................................................................... 166 8.6. Trends in Item Percent Correct Scores .................................................................................. 169 8.7. Effects of Changes to Scaling Procedures .............................................................................. 172 8.8. Summary and Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 173 Chapter 9: Summary, Conclusions and a Look Ahead ................................................................. 179
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