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Malaysia Telecommunications PP16832/01/2012 (029059) PP16832/01/2012 (029059) Malaysia Sector Update 10 January 2012 17 October 2011 Neutral (from Overweight) Telecommunications Defensive but valuations a bugbear Downgrade to Neutral. Economic growth is expected to slow but telcos will continue to focus on expanding new earnings channels such Wong Chew Hann as mobile Internet and fixed broadband, as well as maintain cost control [email protected] through collaboration on physical infrastructure. Malaysia has a stable (603) 2297 8686 competitive telco environment and well-established monetisation strategies for mobile data. However, with valuations at a premium, we downgrade the sector to Neutral, with Telekom being our top pick. Gregory Yap [email protected] Margin pressure expected as handset subsidies expected to rise. (65) 6432 1450 At the same time that dongle subscriber growth is slowing down, users on smartphone mobile data plans are not growing as fast, most likely due to the fact that smartphone penetration is still low. In order to attract more users to purchase smartphones and take up data plans, telcos will need to provide more handset subsidies in 2012. This will depress margins until the subsidies are fully expensed off and the higher ARPUs begin to filter through to telco margins. Risks in spectrum refarming, more multiplay competition. There is still no clarity on when and how MCMC will be refarming the current spectra of the existing telcos when they expire in 2012 to 2015. The key concern is whether spectrum bidding (if an auction is the chosen method) will push prices too high. We also expect more competition in the IPTV space, as telcos aim to improve their non-voice revenue and do more bundling deals that can help improve customer stickiness. Still, dividends should stay the course as capex trends down. For the basket of telco stocks under our coverage, we project core earnings growth of 6.0% in 2012, with average free cashflow yield of 7.1% backing up average dividend yield of 4.5%, with the highest yields coming from Maxis followed by Digi and Telekom. Capex is expected to trend down following the earlier surge in 3G network investment and we expect greater potential for cost savings from network collaboration to flow through in 2012 for Telekom Malaysia, Axiata and Digi.Com. Valuations not compelling relative to the region. Malaysian wireless telco stocks lead the region in terms of valuations, trading at an average PBR of 9.9x and PER of 18.2x based on FY12 forecasts, compared to 3.2x and 12.1x respectively for the rest of the Asia Pacific ex-Japan region. In balancing slowing economic growth ahead and a potential margin squeeze by handset subsidies against stable forecasts for earnings and cashflow, we are Neutral on the sector. Our sole Buy call is on Telekom Malaysia. Telco Sector – Peer Valuation Summary Source: Maybank IB Stock Rec Shr px Mkt cap TP PER (x) PER (x) P/B (x) P/B (x) ROAE (%) ROAE (%) Div yld Div yld (RM) (RMm) (RM) CY11E CY12E CY11E CY12E CY11E CY12E FY11E FY12E Axiata Hold 5.00 40,881 5.10 15.6 14.0 2.0 1.8 13.4 13.5 2.1 2.1 DiGi.com Hold 3.70 27,524 3.46 24.9 23.6 23.2 25.3 87.4 102.7 4.6 4.6 Maxis Hold 5.48 40,650 5.40 18.6 19.0 5.2 5.8 26.5 28.8 7.4 7.4 Telekom Buy 4.73 15,597 4.84 23.8 21.2 2.0 2.0 8.5 9.6 4.5 4.5 Simple average 20.7 19.5 8.1 8.7 34.0 38.6 4.6 4.6 Kim Eng Hong Kong is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Page 1 of 2 Telecommunications 17 October 2011 Stable earnings growth, decent yields Malaysia has one of the most defensive telco markets in the region with a stable competitive environment and well-established monetisation strategies for mobile data packages practised by the telcos. Risks exist, true, especially in the areas of new competitors on the block and uncertainties surrounding spectrum allocation, but generally, they are well known and can be anticipated by the telcos. For telco stocks under coverage, we project core earnings growth of 6.0% in 2012, with average free cashflow yield of 7.1% backing up average dividend yield of 4.5%, with the highest yields coming from Maxis followed by DiGi and Telekom. With capex trending down after an earlier surge in 3G network investment, capital management should remain a recurring theme. Although economic growth is expected to slow, we believe telcos will continue to focus on expanding new earnings channels such as mobile Internet and fixed broadband. However, high valuations are a bugbear as the defensiveness of the industry is well-recognised. We recently downgraded DiGi.com following a period of outperformance just prior to its 1-into-10 stock split. Currently, the only buy call we have is in Telekom Malaysia. As such, we have a neutral stance on the telco sector. 2012 earnings likely to remain defensive… Defend the traditional, grow the new. In 2012, we expect telcos to place emphasis on defending their traditional revenue sources and to keep new sources of revenue such as data revving in third gear. On the voice side, while Digi and Celcom have been able to sustain their voice revenue, Maxis has seen voice revenue decline in the last two years. Its latest response of increasing the charging block of its Hot Ticket prepaid plan from 30 seconds to 60 seconds should help to stem the steady erosion, at least for now. To mitigate the erosion in voice, we expect all three mobile telcos to continue pushing for more mobile data usage on their networks, coming out with more innovative pricing plans and improving their brand image as well as make more innovative applications available to increase subscriber stickiness. Increasing shift from 2G to 3G to drive mobile data. Although smartphone penetration in Malaysia is still low, estimated at only 20- 25% of the postpaid base compared to 70-75% for Singapore, we believe this figure can only rise as people continue to switch from 2G to 3G driven by new applications such as social networking (eg Facebook), video streaming (eg Youtube) and online chats. This change in user behaviour is revolutionary, in our view, and will be almost unstoppable. In the latest “Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast” white paper, global networking equipment giant Cisco Systems noted that world mobile data grew by almost 3x in 2010 from 2009, and expects it to increase by another 26x by 2015. Further, it noted that smartphones represented only 13% of total global handsets in use today, but they represented over 78% of total mobile data traffic as the average amount of traffic per smartphone doubled in 2010 to 79MB per month from 35MB per month. Most notably for users in Singapore and Malaysia, Android phone users are approaching iPhone levels of data use. 10 January 2012 Page 2 of 12 Page 1 of 2 Telecommunications 17 October 2011 According to Cisco, "it is a testament to the momentum of the mobile industry that this growth persisted despite the continued economic downturn, the introduction of tiered mobile data packages, and an increase in the amount of mobile traffic offloaded to the fixed network”. Cisco forecasts 2015 mobile data traffic to grow 26x over 2010 Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011 Western Europe and Asia Pacific will account for over half of global mobile traffic by 2015 Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011 New devices and applications carry higher multiplier effect. Having said that, the growth of mobile broadband subscribers has been slowing rapidly in Malaysia since it peaked in mid-2010. In our view, the introduction of more tablet computers and high-end mobile handsets onto mobile networks will be a major generator of mobile traffic to revive this growth, because they will offer the consumer content and applications not supported by previous generations of mobile devices. As shown below, one smart phone can generate as much traffic as 24 feature phones and one tablet as much as 122 feature phones. 10 January 2012 Page 3 of 12 Page 1 of 2 Telecommunications 17 October 2011 High-end mobile devices can multiply traffic Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011 In this context, it is encouraging to see Android devices come into their own against the iPhone, as generally these phones are more affordable. Market research firm Gartner recently reported that Android’s share of the worldwide smartphone market doubled to 52.3% in 3Q11 from a year ago, while Apple’s iOS dropped to 15%. Mobile operating system market shares Operating 3Q11 Units 3Q11 Share 3Q10 Units 3Q10 Share Androidsystem 60,490.4(‘000) 52.5(%) 20(‘000),544.0 25.3(%) Symbian 19,500.1 16.9 29,480.1 36.3 iOS 17,295.3 15.0 13,484.4 16.6 RIM 12,701.1 11.0 12,508.3 15.4 Bada 2,478.5 2.2 920.6 1.1 Microsoft 1,701.9 1.5 2,203.9 2.7 Others 1,018.1 0.9 1,991.3 2.5 Total 115,185.4 100.0 81,132.6 100.0 Source: Gartner Telcos will continue to upgrade regardless of economic conditions. As the Malaysian telcos have invested heavily in HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access, or 3.5G, capable of a maximum downlink access speed of 14Mbps) networks, they will continue to push for more mobile data usage on their networks.
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