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Spectrum Depletion Analysis

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Spectrum Depletion Analysis MP 03W0000068 MITRE PRODUCT White Paper: Spectrum Depletion Analysis April 2003 Melvin J. Zeltser Frederick R. Morser Philip Long Frank Box Sponsor: Federal Aviation Administration Contract No.: DTFA01-01-C-00001 Dept. No.: F066 Project No.: 02033102-AB Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 2003 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved. Center for Advanced Aviation System Development McLean, Virginia 2003 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Table of Contents Section Page 1. Introduction 1 2. Circuit Demand 3 2.1 Historic Demand Data Sources 3 2.1.1 Historic Circuit Assignments (25-year Span) 4 2.1.2 Historic Circuit Assignments (5-year Span) 5 2.1.2.1 Assessment of Circuit Assignments (42-month Span) 5 2.2 Estimated Circuit Requirements to Support NAS Modernization Plans 8 3. Circuit Supply 11 3.1 Increasing Supply via 25 Initiatives 11 3.1.1 Expansion of ATS Frequency Resources 12 3.1.2 Frequency Pooling 15 3.1.3 Physical Mitigation Measures 15 3.1.4 Database and Tool Improvements 16 3.2 Initiatives Summary 16 3.3 Sensitivity of Supply Results to Assumptions 17 4. Managing Spectrum 19 5. Conclusions and Recommendations 21 List of References 23 Appendix A. Spectrum Prospector 25 Appendix B. Impact of Delaying the Transition to VDL3 29 Appendix C. Circuit Assignment Changes from 1998 to 2002 by Region and Altitude 33 Appendix D. Programmatic Circuit Demand Estimate Through 2020 37 Glossary 45 iii 2003 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. List of Figures Figure Page 1. ATS Historic Circuit Growth 4 2. FAA Circuit Changes by Flight Level 7 3. Other Circuit Changes by Flight Level 7 4. High Altitude Sector Concept Diagram 42 List of Tables Table Page 1. Short-Term Circuit Growth 5 2. Programmatic Based Circuit Demand Estimate Through Year 2020 8 3. Annual Circuit Demand Forecast Summary 9 4. Overview of the 25 Initiatives for Extending 25AM System Life (Page 1 of 2) 13 Circuit 5and for Terminal Area Redesign Through 2015 41 AWOS Installation Forecast by Region 43 iv 2003 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Executive Summary The Very High Frequency (VHF) spectrum for air/ground (A/G) communications has become very crowded. It is becoming difficult for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to find frequency assignments to meet the demand for additional air traffic control (ATC) services. The unit of measure for A/G voice supply and demand is a circuit.1 In September 2001, the Next-Generation Air/Ground Radio Communications System (NEXCOM) Aviation Rulemaking Committee (NARC) recommended that the FAA extend the life of the existing 25-kilohertz (kHz) amplitude-modulation (25AM) system. Recommendation 1 in the NARC report stated the FAA should “Continue to aggressively manage frequency assignments to prolong the useful life of the 25AM circuit allocation in support of Air Traffic Services.” The need to aggressively manage the spectrum is more pertinent than ever because of the economic factors the aviation industry is facing since the events of September 11, 2001. The economic impact of transition to new avionics will be relatively great for an industry that is struggling to remain economically viable. The objective of this paper is to support FAA A/G voice communication modernization efforts by determining, based on estimates of remaining circuit supply and future circuit demand, when the FAA and the aviation industry should plan to transition to a new radio to accommodate future additional ATC services. The estimated year when demand will exceed supply is sensitive to several factors including assumptions about: frequency use and circuit assignments (protected altitude, geographic location, etc.), demand data projections, and supply projections. The approach The MITRE Corporation’s Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) used in this analysis was to develop a range of values for both ATC services (i.e., demand) and circuit supply that can be supported (i.e., circuits can be provided before the 25 AM system will start to experience service denials) based on an engineering analysis. Denials occur when new services are required in already congested airspace, and there is no way to assign a frequency to support the circuits needed to provide the new services. (It should be recognized that growth could still be available in noncongested areas.) 1 A circuit is defined as the physical facilities (including one or more ground radios operating on a common frequency) that enable a controller or uplink-broadcast station to communicate with pilots within a given portion of airspace known as a “service volume” (SV). In some cases, more than one frequency assignment may support a single circuit. In February 2002 the average number of assignments per circuit was 1.22. FAA uses frequency channel assignments as the measure of supply. v 2003 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Future circuit demand estimates are based on three values representing data described below: 1. 80 circuits per yearbased on CAASD’s projections of future demand for services derived from the Aviation Capacity Enhancement (ACE) plan, Operational Evolution Plan (OEP), previous CAASD studies, and conversations with FAA air traffic personnel. A detailed breakdown is presented in Section 2.2. This estimate is likely to be on the low side because some future applications (e.g., data link services and air-to-air voice and data communication) are not considered. 2. 100 circuits per yearbased on an analysis of the 5 most recent years of data from the Government Master File (GMF). This estimate is likely to be on the low side because the interval included the 5 months after 9/11 when traffic demand and service demand were very low. Nonetheless, the low growth during this interval is seen during other periods that are followed by a period of high growth. 3. 190 circuits per yearbased on an analysis of GMF data covering the 28-year period from 1974 to 2002. This estimate is likely to be high because the main reasons for past growth (e.g., significant increases in the Automated Weather Observing System [AWOS] and Automated Surface Observing System [ASOS]) have for the most part already occurred. Future circuit demand is expected to be more modest and subjected to saturation effects (e.g., sector splits in congested airspace are approaching minimum practical size and limited growth in the controller work force is anticipated). A demand value of about 160 circuits per year appears reasonable to assume for planning purposes. This target is double the estimated number of 80 and is 60 percent greater than the circuit assignment growth over the past 5 years and only 16 percent below the 28-year average. On the supply side, increasing the number of circuits is a function of the frequency assignment models, FAA initiatives of freeing up frequencies currently assigned for other ATC purposes, eliminating co-site constraints by adding sites2 where necessary, and selective “repacking” (i.e., reassigning frequencies for existing circuits as necessary to create spectral room for new circuits). CAASD selected three states of increased supply: 1,000, 1,500, and 2,200 additional circuits. 1. The low estimate of 1,000 additional circuits considers pending frequency assignments already set aside for future circuits in the GMF, plus additional circuits that can be accommodated by eliminating cosite constraints, with no need for repacking. This capacity/supply increase estimate has low risk. The major risk is 2 Although it is technically feasible to add sites, the costs of doing so must be considered. vi 2003 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. associated with the allocation of resources to remove cosite constraints at congested sites. 2. The middle estimate of 1,500 additional circuits includes the 1,000 circuits identified above, plus 500 accommodable through repacking using CAASD’s Spectrum Prospector™ tool or the more promising of the 25 FAA Initiatives to extend the 25AM system. This supply estimate seems achievable from an engineering view, but involves some operational and institutional hurdles. 3. The high estimate of 2,200 additional circuits considers the 1,000 circuits plus 1,200 accommodable through repacking and the more promising of the 25 FAA Initiatives, and is the most risky of the three. The acceptable level of repacking and the ability of Spectrum Prospector to do the repacking should be assessed if these levels are to be achieved. The four circuit demand scenarios and three circuit supply scenarios create a wide range of possible years in which the first service request denial may occur. For planning purposes an annual circuit demand of 160 new circuit assignments and a supply increase of 1,500 to 2,200 circuits seem reasonable. The intersection of these two scenarios puts the anticipated spectrum depletion time frame between 2011 and 2016. Under these circumstances the first service request denial would occur during this period. The historically based demand scenarios, our planning demand scenario, the three supply scenarios and the estimated year of spectrum depletion are shown in Table ES-1. Table ES-1. Estimated Year of Spectrum Depletion Demand Per Year Circuit Supply 1,000 1,500 2,200 100 2012 2017 2024 160 2008 2011 2016 190 2007 2010 2014 Managing and executing a repacking campaign and the 25 Initiatives has uncertainty and can mean considerable cost for the FAA. Not pursuing a managed approach to spectrum may mean considerable cost for users who must transition to new radios before older aircraft are retired. The demand and supply scenarios create the range of spectrum extension given various management approaches and possible future demand levels. For planning purposes, it seems reasonable to target 2011 to 2016 from a spectrum depletion viewpoint. The question of how to narrow this range involves balancing the economic and operational costs of running out of spectrum with the economic costs of avionics equipage and ground system development, the technical risks of meeting schedules, and the operational need for future vii 2003 The MITRE Corporation.
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