Commercial Vehicles Industry in India to Equip the Reader with a Detailed Overview of the Industry
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ABSTRACT An Analysis on commercial vehicles industry in India to equip the reader with a detailed overview of the industry COMMERCIAL VEHICLES GROUP 12 Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 2 Overview of the Industry .............................................................................................................................. 3 Growth over the years .............................................................................................................................. 3 Strong Correlation with GDP ..................................................................................................................... 3 Impact of Budget 2012-13 on Commercial Vehicles:.................................................................................... 5 Contribution to GDP : ................................................................................................................................ 5 Recent Mergers and Acquisitions In The Industry ........................................................................................ 6 Mahindra ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Implications ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Tata motors ............................................................................................................................................... 6 Why it acquired JLR? ............................................................................................................................. 6 Tata motors acquired 79% stake in Hispano Carrocera in 2009. .......................................................... 6 Ashok Leyland ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Penske ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Ford ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 Analysts View of Companies/Industry .......................................................................................................... 7 Government regulations ........................................................................................................................... 8 Emission norms ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Age norms ............................................................................................................................................. 9 Weight norms ....................................................................................................................................... 9 Road Safety norms .............................................................................................................................. 10 Policy changes related to the industry, specially the impact of economic reforms ............................... 10 Driver of Growth ......................................................................................................................................... 11 The Hub and Spoke Model adoption ...................................................................................................... 11 Other structural factors that will push hub and spoke adoption ....................................................... 12 Main Players and Market Shares ................................................................................................................ 12 Key Personnel ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Tata Motors Ltd....................................................................................................................................... 14 Key developments ............................................................................................................................... 15 Ashok Leyland ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Key developments ............................................................................................................................... 15 Eicher Motors Ltd .................................................................................................................................... 16 Key developments ............................................................................................................................... 16 Mahindra & Mahindra ............................................................................................................................ 16 GROUP 12 1 Innovations ................................................................................................................................................. 17 Use of CNG, India .................................................................................................................................... 17 FDI ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 Overseas Opportunities for Indian Manufacturers ................................................................................. 17 Exports 17 Imports ................................................................................................................................................ 19 Competition from Foreign Firms ......................................................................................................... 20 References .................................................................................................................................................. 21 Executive Summary The Commercial Vehicles Industry continues to bear the brunt of its cyclical nature because of the pessimistic macroeconomic environment prevailing in and around India. After experiencing a growth of 30% during the financial years of 2009-10 & 2010-11, the commercial vehicles industry is again experiencing difficult times.[1] In 2011-12 the growth declined and came down to 18.2%. If this wasn’t a sign of slowdown, the industry slumped and the growth plummeted to negative territory accentuating the effects of weak macroeconomic environment & once again GROUP 12 2 substantiating its cyclical nature. The new commercial vehicles sales contracted by 2% in 2011- 12 .[2] Structure of this industry is very oligopolistic in nature. The domestic CV industry is relatively concentrated with the top three players accounting for 88 per cent (in volume terms) as of 2011-12. [3] The player which has dominated the CV industry so far is Tata Motors with more than half of the market share, which is followed by Mahindra & Mahindra with 18% and after that comes Ashok Leyland with a market share of around 10% which is very small compared to Tata Motors.[3] Technological Developments have led upgraded vehicles and increased competition with a number of foreign players forming joint venture with Indian companies. This Industry is vital to the growth of any country and is driven by it. The data of a number of countries displays a strong correlation between growth and commercial vehicles sales. The demand of commercial vehicles is very volatile when you look over the past decade. A majority of end users of commercial vehicles still come from unorganized sector and the competition in the industry is moderate due to a smaller number of players dominating a huge portion of market share. Overview of the Industry Growth over the years Commercial Vehicles Industry has grown consistently with a few exceptions over the past 12 years with a CAGR of 20%.[5] We have shown the growth in this table below, but it has not been adjusted to inflation. However it still provides a good enough picture to gauge the growth of the industry. Strong Correlation with GDP The periods in which industry experienced slumps were 2008-09 & 2012-13. However, these years were just the amplification of GDP fluctuations which tells us that this is a cyclical industry. Also, the two graphs below can be compared and you will find that CV sales are just amplification of GDP fluctuations. GROUP 12 3 Source : World Bank, facilitated by Google Interface : https://www.google.co.in/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&hl=en&dl=en&idim=country:I ND:USA:PAK#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim =country:IND&ifdim=region&tstart=1000146600000&tend=1347301800000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false Source : Crisil https://www.crisilresearch.com/industryasync.jspx?serviceId=3&State=ECONOMY#storyId#17848#sectionId#3177#newsFeedId#undefined GROUP 12 4 Commercial vehicles: Aggregate demand supply trend (Annual) Year Production Domestic sales Exports Growth (Overall) 2001-02 162,371 146,469 11,870 2002-03 202,852 191,069 10,707 20% 2003-04 275,098 260,256 17,283 26% 2004-05 350,202 318,599 29,975 21% 2005-06 387,661 351,042