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The Belt and Road Initiative: China's Rise, America's Balance, and Latin Ursinus College Digital Commons @ Ursinus College History Honors Papers Student Research 5-7-2020 The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Rise, America’s Balance, and Latin America’s Struggle Garrett Bullock Ursinus College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/history_hon Part of the Asian History Commons, Asian Studies Commons, Comparative Politics Commons, International Relations Commons, Latin American History Commons, and the Latin American Studies Commons Click here to let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Bullock, Garrett, "The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Rise, America’s Balance, and Latin America’s Struggle" (2020). History Honors Papers. 7. https://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/history_hon/7 This Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Research at Digital Commons @ Ursinus College. It has been accepted for inclusion in History Honors Papers by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Ursinus College. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Rise, America’s Balance, and Latin America’s Struggle Garrett Bullock History and International Relations May 4, 2020 Submitted to the Faculty of Ursinus College in fulfillment of the requirements for Distinguished Honors in the History and International Relations Departments. Bullock 1 Abstract This research attempts to understand the evolving relationship between China, the United States, and Latin America. Specifically, it explores China’s rapid rise as a formidable geopolitical power, the United States’ mixed response to that rise, and efforts by two Latin American countries, Ecuador and Argentina, to avoid exploitation by both China and the United States— and, indeed, to even benefit from this mutating relationship. In all cases, historically constructed ideas and strategic interests shape relations among these various actors. Accordingly, this research lays out the historical sources for each of these powers’ central ideas. Then, it connects those ideas to the current strategies employed by both china and the United States to promote their military, economic, political, and cultural power. Meanwhile, this research uses two case studies—Ecuador and Argentina—to explore to what extent states have attempted to use investment and trade with China through the Belt and Road Initiative to increase economic growth and expand political autonomy. Ultimately, this analysis informs our understanding of geopolitics, clarifies the role of historic memory in international relations, and lays the groundwork for further research related to the BRI’s understudied role in Latin America. Bullock 2 Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction 4 An Evolving Relationship: The Belt and Road Initiative 5 Competing Interpretations of China’s Rise and the BRI 7 A Constructivist Perspective: Ideas, Interests, and Choices 11 Humiliation, Exceptionalism, and Autonomy 13 The Belt and Road Initiative: A Cause for Conflict? 16 Re-conceptualizing Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 17 Chapter 2. China’s Rise: National Humiliation and the Sleeping Lion 20 What is a Superpower? 21 Is China a Superpower? 25 China’s Rise 26 Military 28 Economy 35 Politics 45 Culture 50 The Current Debate 57 Economy 57 Military 59 Politics 61 Culture 63 The Belt and Road Initiative: Overcoming the Hurdles 66 Conclusion 68 Chapter 3. America’s Balance: American Exceptionalism and the Thucydides Trap 70 American Exceptionalism 73 The “Loss of China” Complex 82 The South China Sea Crisis 83 The BRI and Latin America 89 Conclusion 91 Bullock 3 Chapter 4. Latin America’s Struggle: Finding Autonomy Between Scylla and 94 Charybdis The Struggle for Autonomy 101 The Republic of Ecuador 104 Ecuador Before the BRI 105 Ecuador and China 110 Ecuador and the United States 116 Ecuador and ALBA-TCP 124 Conclusion 127 The Argentine Republic 127 Argentina Before the BRI 128 Argentina and China 136 Argentina and the United States 148 Argentina and Mercosur 156 Conclusion 159 Chapter 5. Conclusion 163 An Evolving Relationship: The Belt and Road Initiative 163 The Persistence of Realism 166 Constructivism and the BRI 168 Re-conceptualizing Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 170 Bullock 4 Chapter 1. Introduction Napoleon Bonaparte once compared China to a “sleeping lion” and observed that “when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Now China the lion has awakened, but it is a peaceful, amicable and civilized lion. - Xi Jinping, Chinese President1 China wants nothing less than to push the United States of America from the Western Pacific and attempt to prevent us from coming to the aid of our allies. But they will fail. - Mike Pence, American Vice President2 In this world of ours, a world of powerful centers and subjugated outposts, there is no wealth that must not be held in some suspicion. - Eduardo Hughes Galeano, Uruguayan Journalist3 In the summer of 2019, while I was conducting research on the Chinese Hukou system in Guangzhou, something very strange happened. I had just walked out of the Haixinsha subway station into a large public square with my close friend and amateur translator Conner. There, we saw this peculiar scene: 1 Xi Jinping, "Speech by H.E. Mr. Xi Jinping President of the People's Republic of China at the Meeting Commemorating the 50th Anniversary of the Establishment of China-France Diplomatic Relations" (2014), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/t1147894.shtml. 2 Mike Pence, “Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China” (2018), at The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-administrations- policy-toward-china/ 3 Eduardo Galeano, Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent (London: Profile Books, 2009), pp. 267. Bullock 5 Pictured here is a family setting up for a photo shoot with the Mexican flag in a public square. The scene stood out to me because, up until that point, I had only seen American tourists during my time in Guangzhou. I had begun to wonder how common it was for the city to receive tourists from outside of Asia and the United States when the photo shoot was interrupted by two nearby police officers. Specifically, two 民警 (Mínjǐng) approached the family. These are higher level officials than the typical transportation attendants, so I thought they might be asking the family for their passports. To my surprise, these officers approached the tourists and, in broken English, began requesting they put the flag away. When it became clear to Conner and I that neither group spoke English, Mandarin, or Spanish well enough to communicate with one another, we approached the group. Then, in a bizarre babel of mediocre Spanish, English, and Mandarin, we explained the officers’ message to the family, which was that no foreign flags are allowed in a public venue in China. Once the family understood, they thanked us for the help and everyone went on with their day. That scene stayed with me. There we were, two Americans, a family of Mexican tourists, and two Chinese police officers, all trying to navigate a strange situation. Coincidentally (I cannot overstate the strangeness of this coincidence), I had just spent a summer researching China’s implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America. This unexpected event perfectly highlighted the lesser studied connection that is the crux of this research, the evolving relationship between China, the United States, and Latin America. An Evolving Relationship: The Belt and Road Initiative No development better exemplifies this evolving relationship than China’s expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative into Latin America. Initiated in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the primary tenets of Chinese president Xi Jinping's "national revitalization" Bullock 6 policy in China.4 The BRI is primarily a global infrastructure project funded by the Chinese government. However, President Xi made it clear in his opening remarks at the original 2013 BRI forum (then called “One Belt One Road”, or OBOR) that the BRI is much more than an economic project. Instead, Xi noted that the “New Silk Road,” like the original Silk Road, will spread economic openness and mutual cooperation throughout the world. President Xi subsequently expanded these goals during the 2017 Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation to include the sharing of technology, culture, and security.5 Importantly, President Xi also clarified that the BRI is divided into two main geographic routes. The first is the Silk Road Economic Belt, which connects Asia, Africa, and Europe through land-based infrastructure development. The second is the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, which connects Asia, Africa, Europe, and Pacific Island countries through maritime infrastructure development. While these are the main routes under development as part of the BRI, other countries “off- route” in places like Latin America have received BRI funding.6 Thus, the BRI is a truly global project, impacting more than the “Silk Road” misnomer implies. The international response to this global project has been mixed. Although President Xi claims the purpose of the BRI is to achieve “friendship, shared development, peace, harmony and a better future,” many international observers suspect China has less altruistic intentions.7
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