THE 'ARGENTINE PROBLEM7: AN ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN A MODERN SOCIETY Alphonse Victor Mallette B.A., University of Lethbridge, 1980 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS @ Alphonse Victor Mallette 1986 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY June, 1986 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. PARTIAL COPYRIGHT LICENSE I hereby grant to Simon Fraser University the right to lend my thesis, proJect or extended essay (the title of which is shown below) to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. I further agree that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by me or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for flnanclal gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Title of Thesis/Project/Extended Essay Author: -. - rJ (date) -.-.--ABSTRACT This thesis is designed to explain, through political and historical analysis, a phenomenon identified by scholars of pol- itical development as the "Argentine Problem". Argentina is seen as a paradox, a nation which does not display the political stab- ility commensurate with its level of socio-economic development. The work also seeks to examine the origins and policies of the most serious manifestation of dictatorial rule in the nation's history, the period of military power from 1976 to 1983. A review of the relevant literature indicates a shortage of studies which address the "Argentine Problem", as well as the political and economic policies of the military regime, or which seek to place that regime within an historical context. Therefore, this research will help redress some of those deficiencies. The use of an analytical framework based solely on the app- b lication of over-arching theories of comparative development, which tend to explain the Argentine case as an example of a gen- eral tendency among nations, has been avoided. Instead, an his- torical-structural methodology which integrates elements of dep- endency theory with variables unique to Argentine society has been adopted. An attempt is made to help in the creation of an emerging framework for understanding Argentina's circumstances. The work builds a case for the hypothesis that the persistence of politi- cal instability throughout modern Argentine history is condi- iii tioned by historically verifiable patterns of economic develop- ment and social life. Furthermore, it provides evidence that the origins and policies of the military regime of 1976, a combina- tion of free-enterprise economy with state terrorism, were firmly grounded in the nation's past. I would like to thank the following people for the vital contributions they made to the thesis: Professors A. Ciria and T. Cohn, the faculty and staff of the Political Science Department, and my family and friends. TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval Page ii Abstract iii-iv Acknowledgements v List of Figures viii Preface ix-xii CHAPTER ONE. INTRODUCTION I. Modernization Theory and the Argentine Paradox 11. Dependency and the Argentine Case 111. Political Instability and Militarism IV. Discontinuous Modernization and Political Stalemate End Notes CHAPTER TWO. RULE BY OLIGARCHY Physical Features of Argentina I. Spanish Mercantilism and the River Plate 11. England and the Roots of Agrarian Dependency 111. The Golden Age of Agrarian Dependency, 1852-1916 Political Boundaries of Argentina IV. Political Participation and the Middle Classes, 1890-1930 v .J The Great Depression, Economic Dislocation and Military Intervention End Notes CHAPTER THRFB. PERONISM: INDUSTRIAL DEPENDENCY AND . ' ,. NATIONALIST POPULISM, 1930-1966 I. The Great Depression and Anglo-Argentine \ Complementarity 11. The Depression and Defensive Industrialization 111. Industrialization and a New Coalition of 15terests IV. The Military Coup and the Rise of Juan Peron, 1943-1946 V. Dependency and the Fortunes of Nationalist Populism: Peron in Power, 1946-1955 VI. Peronism's Legacy: Stalemated Pluralism VII. The Restoration and the Proscription of Peronism VII1.Stalemated Pluralism and Economic Instability IX. Radical Governments in a Fragmented Society End Notes CBAPTER FOUR. THE CLOSING CIRCLE: MILITARISM AND PERONISM .: IN CRISIS, 1966-1976 I. Multinational Capital, the Military and Authoritarian Rule, 1966-1970. 11. Terror and Social Disintegration: Guerrillas and the State Response, 1969-1976 111. Strategic Retreat: The Military and the Return of Peron; 1970-1973 105 IV. ~erdnand the Failure of Inter-Sectoral Accomodation; 1973-1974 V. Isabel ~erdnand the Fragmentation of Peronism, 1974-1976 VI. The Darkening Sky: Peronism and the Rise of State Terror VII. Peronism, the Armed Forces and the State Terror Apparatus End Notes CHAPTER FIVE. STATE TERROR AND THE PROCESS OF NATIONAL REORGANIZATION; 1976-1983. I. Sectoral Individualism, The Military and Political Reintegration 11. The National Security Doctrine and State Terror 111. The Open Face of the State Terror Apparatus IV. The Hidden Face of the Repressive State V. The Mechanics of the State Terror Process End Notes CHAPTER SIX. ECONOMIC CHANGE, POLITICAL CRISIS AND THE MALVINAS I. Economic Change and Social Reconstruction 11. Inflation and De-Industrialization 111. Speculation and Debt IV. The Social Consequences of the Process of National Reorganization V. The Military, Political Legitimacy and the Malvinas Invasion End Notes CRAPTER SEVEN. CONCLUSIONS End Notes Bibliography vii FIGURES Physical Features of Argentina Political Boundaries of Argentina viii I have chosen Argentina as a case study for personal and intellectual reasons. First, there are many links between the Italian cultural community to which I belong and Argentina. I was interested to learn about a nation where I have relatives, and where I could very well have been born. Second, in an academic sense, Argentina is an intriguing object of inquiry. To the student of political development, the nation is an anomaly. It does not fit into most of the global categorization schema which are at the core of the discipline. It is a society which does not manifest the political behavior suited to its level of development. In Argentina, a high level of social instability has persisted in the face of modernization. In the course of my research, I became concerned with the capacity of conventional methodologies to explain Argentina's unique status. The reasons for my selecting two of them, Mud- ernization theory and Dependency theory, are found in Chapter One. While I found in Dependency theory more elements to help in the understanding of the Argentine case, it was essential to complement that framework with an historical-structural analysis as outlined in Chapter One. This is necessary in order to better comprehend the persistence of such phenomena as militarism, Peronism, socio-economic turmoil, and what has come to be known as "stalemated pluralism". The thesis attempts to assess the relationship between pat- terns of economic and social life and the persistence of insta- bility in the modern era. The analysis suggests that the main- tenance of dependency and certain forms of political behavior have contributed to the turmoil experienced within the nation. Second, it attempts to show how significant events, social forces and political regimes throughout the nation's history each contributed to the worsening of societal conflict over time. A synthetic historical treatment is necessary in order to understand the origins and nature of the focus of the thesis, the Process of National Reorganization carried out by the mili- tary between 1976 and 1983. The thesis is ordered in the following manner. Chapter One begins with a definition of the research problem. And then cri- tiques two dominant analytical methodologies with respect to their capacity to explain that problem. Finally, it outlines a research method which is to be used in addressing the Argentine case. Chapters Two through Four take the form of an historical structural analysis. Their purpose is to identify those economic and political patterns which contributed to the events analysed in Chapters Five and Six. Chapter Two is a synthetic treatment of the period 1600 to 1930. It traces the evolution of the export-oriented agrarian regime. It addresses those hallmarks of the era: acute depen- dency, the growth of an exclusionary ruling class, and unscrupu- lous political practices and evaluates their subsequent impact. Chapter Three covers the period 1930-1966. It investigates the connection between the Depression and changes in Argentine society: notably industrialization and the triumph of Peronism. It links certain patterns associated with this era, as well as legacies of the agrarian period, to the worsening of social instability. This occurs in the context of an analysis of the climate of "stalemated pluralism" existing between 1955-1966. Chapter Four is a rather more extensive analysis of a shorter period, 1966-1976. It focuses on the attempt by two b separate regimes to impose themselves on the increasingly frag- mented society, and their failure to do so. The analysis details how their policies, in combination with longstanding socio-economic patterns and novel circumstances within the soc- ial environment (such as terrorism of various shades), con- tributed to an unprecedented unravelling of the social fabric Finally, there is an assessment of the relationship between this era and the formation of a pernicious alliance determined to smash the cycle of instability. Chapters Five and Six deal with the rise and fall of the military regime and its "Process xi of National Reorganization". They cover the period between 1976 and 1983. Chapter Five provides a brief analysis of the devel- opment of the E.r~..c..esoand the link between its political and economic facets.