Politics & The Bomb: Exploring the Role of Epistemic Communities in Nuclear Non-Proliferation Outcomes. Sara Zahra Kutchesfahani UCL Department of Political Science Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science October 2010 DECLARATION I, Sara Zahra Kutchesfahani, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. Sara Zahra Kutchesfahani ii ABSTRACT The role of epistemic communities in influencing policy formulation is underexplored in International Relations theory in general and in nuclear non-proliferation studies in particular. This thesis explores how epistemic communities – groups of experts knowledgeable in niche issue areas – have affected nuclear non-proliferation policy formulation in two important and under-studied cases: the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) and the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program. It demonstrates that applying an epistemic community approach provides explanatory power heretofore lacking in explanations of these cases’ origins. The thesis applies the epistemic community framework to non-proliferation, using Haas’ (1992) seminal exploration of epistemic communities in the context of natural scientific and environmental policies. Specifically, it analyses the creation and successful implementation of ABACC and the CTR Program, which, respectively, verified the non-nuclear weapon status of Argentina and Brazil and facilitated the denuclearisation of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. These cooperative nuclear non- proliferation agreements are shown to be the result of a process involving substantial input and direction from experts constituting epistemic communities. The thesis explores the differences in the emergence, composition, and influence mechanisms of the epistemic communities behind ABACC and the CTR Program. It reaches the conclusion that understanding the role of an epistemic community in non-proliferation policies leads to the possibility of creating more effective non-proliferation policies in the future. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration ii Abstract iii List of Tables and Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix Acknowledgements xi Chapter One: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Puzzle 1 1.1 The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Puzzle 3 1.2 Existing Explanations for Nuclear Non-Proliferation 5 1.3 Insufficiency of Existing Non-Proliferation Approaches 11 1.4 The Epistemic Community Framework 14 1.5 Case Study Selection 17 1.6 Outline of the Thesis 19 Chapter Two: Applying the Epistemic Community Framework to Analyse the Creation of 23 Cooperative Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreements 2.1 The Epistemic Community Framework 25 Key Features 25 Emergence 27 Influence Mechanisms 30 2.2 The Importance of Knowledge and Scientific Expertise in Policy Formulation 35 2.3 Conceptualising the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Epistemic Community 37 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Experts: An Epistemic Community? 37 The Emergence of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Epistemic Communities 39 The Influence Mechanisms of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Epistemic 40 Communities a) Policy Innovation 40 b) Policy Diffusion 42 c) Policy Selection 45 d) Policy Persistence 46 2.4 Limitations to the Epistemic Community Approach 49 iv 2.5 Conclusion 53 Chapter Three: Research Approach: Utilising Case Studies to Explore the Role of 55 Epistemic Communities in Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy Formulation 3.1 Epistemic Communities and Nuclear Non-Proliferation 55 3.2 Research Approach 57 The Case Study Method 58 Process-Tracing 59 3.3 Case Study Selection 60 ABACC 62 The CTR Program 64 3.4 Data Collection and Analysis 66 Background Research 68 Original Research 68 3.5 Conclusion 71 Case Study One: From Nuclear Rivalry to Nuclear Cooperation: The Role of an Argentine and Brazilian Nuclear Non-Proliferation Epistemic Community in the Creation of the Brazilian- Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) Chapter Four: Argentina and Brazil’s “Suspected” Nuclear Weapons Programme and the 72 Emergence of an Epistemic Community 4.1 Argentina and Brazil’s Nuclear Programmes 76 Argentina’s Nuclear Programme 81 a) Birth and Motivations 81 b) Technical Infrastructure 85 Brazil’s Nuclear Programme 88 a) Birth and Motivations 88 b) Technical Infrastructure 91 4.2 Nuclear Rivalry for Prestige 95 4.3 The Evolution of a Common Position against the Nuclear Non-Proliferation 98 Regime: “Disarmament of the Disarmed” Treaty of Tlatelolco 99 NPT 100 4.4 Reversing Course Towards a Nuclear Partnership 103 4.5 Shared Ideas and Similarities: The Emergence of an Argentine-Brazilian 105 v Epistemic Community 4.6 Conclusion 111 Chapter Five: Examining the Influence of the Argentine-Brazilian Epistemic Community 113 in the Creation of ABACC 5.1 The Road to ABACC 115 May 1980 116 1983–1989 118 1990–1991 127 5.2 The Experts Behind ABACC 132 5.3 How did an Argentine-Brazilian Epistemic Community Facilitate the Creation of 137 ABACC and Influence its Implementation? a) The Role of Knowledge and Expertise 140 b) Access to Decision Makers 143 5.4 Conclusion 147 Case Study Two: From the Uncertainty of Command, Control, and Safety of Soviet Nuclear Weapons to the Denuclearisation of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine: The Role of an American and Soviet/Russian Nuclear Non-Proliferation Epistemic Community in the Creation of the Nunn- Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program Chapter Six: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine’s Nuclear Legacy: The Emergence of an 150 Epistemic Community 6.1 Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine’s Inherited Nuclear Weapons 153 Belarus 156 Kazakhstan 156 Ukraine 156 6.2 Denuclearising Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine: The Emergence of an 157 American-Soviet/Russian Epistemic Community Who were the Experts behind the CTR Program? 159 How did they Emerge? 163 a) The Ill-Fated Aspin-Nunn Initiative (August–November 1991) 164 b) The “Cooperative Security” Research Initiative: Soviet Nuclear Fission 169 (September–November 1991) c) The Soviet Input Behind CTR (October–November 1991) 170 d) Bringing the Experts Together (November–December 1991) 172 The Experts’ Key Features 176 6.3 Conclusion 181 vi Chapter Seven: Examining the Influence of the American and Soviet/Russian Epistemic 182 Community in the Creation of the CTR Program: The Importance of the CTR Program in the Denuclearisation of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine 7.1 How did an American-Soviet/Russian Epistemic Community Facilitate the 185 Creation of the CTR Program and Influence its Implementation? a) The Role of Knowledge and Expertise 187 b) Access to Decision Makers 194 7.2 The Importance of the CTR Program in the Denuclearisation of Belarus, 197 Kazakhstan, and Ukraine Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine’s Position on Nuclear Weapons 199 a) Belarus 200 b) Kazakhstan 200 c) Ukraine 203 Umbrella Agreements 205 START I, Lisbon Protocol, and the Trilateral Agreement 207 Ratification of the NPT and Removal of all Soviet Nuclear Warheads 209 7.3 Conclusion 211 Chapter Eight: Conclusions 213 8.1 Key Theoretical and Empirical Findings 214 Emergence 217 Composition 219 Influence Mechanisms 221 8.2 Evaluating the Analytical Framework 224 Strengths 224 Weaknesses 225 8.3 Avenues for Future Research 226 8.4 Overall Thesis Contributions 227 Appendix I: Interview Questions 229 Appendix II: Interview Collection 231 Appendix III: Nuclear Fuel Cycle 235 Appendix IV: Governments of Argentina and Brazil (1946–1995) 236 Appendix V: Argentina and Brazil Nuclear Cooperation Agreements/Declarations 238 Appendix VI: Argentina’s Nuclear Infrastructure 240 Appendix VII: Brazil’s Nuclear Infrastructure 241 Appendix VIII: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1946–2008 242 Bibliography 244 vii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES FIGURES 1.1 Potential vs. Actual Nuclear Proliferation, 1945–2010 4 1.2 Number of States Ratifying the NPT, 1968–2006 7 2.1 Epistemic Community at Work 33 3.1 Triangulation Sources 67 5.1 The Path Towards the Creation of ABACC 138 7.1 The Evolution of the CTR Program via the Epistemic Community 186 TABLES 5.1 Argentina and Brazil Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreements 148 6.1 Former Soviet Union Strategic and Tactical Nuclear Forces, December 1991 155 6.2 The Experts Involved in the Creation of the CTR Program 160 6.3 The Origins of the CTR Program 166 7.1 The CTR Program’s Accomplishments 198 8.1 Comparison between the ABACC and CTR Program Epistemic Communities 216 viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ABACC Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (Agéncia Brasileiro-Argentina de Contabilidade e Controle De Materiais Nucleares/Agencia Brasileño-Argentina de Contabilidad y Control de Materiales Nucleares) AFA Argentine Physics Association (Asociación Física Argentina) CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CNEA National Atomic Energy Commission (Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica) Argentina CNEN National Nuclear Energy Commission (Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear) Brazil CSIA Center for Science and International Affairs (or Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs), Harvard University CTR Cooperative Threat Reduction DOD Department of Defense/Defense Department DSB Defense Science Board EURATOM European Atomic Energy Community FSU Former Soviet Union FY Fiscal Year HEU Highly Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile JWG Joint Working Group Minatom Russian Ministry of Atomic