FRONTLINEMAY 8, 2009 WWW.FRONTLINE.IN ’S NATIONAL MAGAZINE RS.20 WORLD AFFAIRS AFGHANISTAN ENVIRONMENT KERALA ESSAY TIBET Obama’s war 44 Ruining Vembanad 64 Case for diplomacy 83 Polity in flux As the electoral contest tightens, many political parties keep their options open for post-election deal-making

VOLUME 26 NUMBER 9 APRIL 25 - MAY 8, 2009 ISSN 0970-1710 WWW.FRONTLINE.IN

WORLD AFFAIRS COVER STORY Polity in flux Obama’s war in Afghanistan 44 The election scene becomes complex as po- North Korea’s litical parties eye post-poll regrouping. 4 ’satellite’ shock 51 Israel: Right on top 55 A plan and a half 58 NATO at 60: Signs of fatigue 61

ENVIRONMENT Kerala’s Vembanad Lake: Wetland or wasteland? 64

ESSAY RELATED STORIES Tibet: A case for Interview: Madhya Pradesh: quiet diplomacy 83 Prakash Karat 8 Muslim factor 29 INTERVIEW Interview: West Bengal: Elizabeth H. Blackburn, L.K. Advani 10 Tough fight 31 Professor of Biology and Uttar Pradesh: Assam: Physiology, University Minority factor 12 Alliances on test 34 of California 91 Bihar: Sikkim: FOCUS: CAREER & Social equations 14 Smooth sailing 39 EDUCATION IN Haryana: Tamil Nadu: Training minds 100 Faction fights 17 Banking on populism 114 Interviews: 118 P.S. Ravindran, Director, Punjab: Back to Battle of Madurai Vajiram & Ravi 101 identity politics 19 Karnataka: V.P. Gupta, Director, Interview: Money & power 118 Rau’s IAS Study Circle 104 Amarinder Singh 20 Andhra Pradesh: A.R. Khan, Director, Delhi: factor 120 Khan Study Group 106 Edge for Congress 23 Gujarat: Modi myth? 122 Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri, Indian Institute of Jammu & Kashmir: : Planning and Management 108 New equations 25 Closely watched 124 Nuzhat Hasan, Director, : On manifestos 127 National Book Trust, India 110 Surprises galore 27 What is on offer 131 COLUMN C.P. Chandrasekhar: On the Cover Fatal attraction 41 WORLD AFFAIRS At an election meeting addressed by Bhaskar Ghose: Obama has managed to raise Praja Rajyam chief Chiranjeevi in district, Andhra Pradesh. CBI as a political tool 89 the monthly average kill rate Praful Bidwai: achieved by George Bush, from PHOTOGRAPHS:CH VIJAYA BHASKAR For nuclear sanity 96 32 during 2008 to 45 a month COVER DESIGN: U. UDAYA SHANKAR R.K. Raghavan: Will the (February-March 2009). 44 Published by N. RAM, Kasturi Buildings, elections be peaceful? 98 ENVIRONMENT 859 & 860, Anna Salai, Chennai-600 002 and Jayati Ghosh: The Vembanad lake, the Printed by P. Ranga Reddy at Kala Jyothi The G-20 summit: Process Private Limited, Survey No. 185, second largest wetland in Fanfare & failure 112 Kondapur, Ranga Reddy District-500 133, India, is in a state of Andhra Pradesh on behalf of Kasturi & Sons Ltd., UPDATE precipitous decline. 64 Chennai-600 002.

Life term for Fujimori 54 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: N. RAM (Editor responsible ESSAY for selection of news under the PRB Act). All BOOKS 73 The record of the Dalai Lama’s rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. THE ENGLISH talks with Jawaharlal Nehru LANGUAGE 82 when they first met after he left e-mail: [email protected] Tibet yields conclusions that are Frontline is not responsible for the content of LETTERS 126 still relevant. 83 external Internet sites.

FRONTLINE 3 Cover Story MAY 8, 2009

POLITY IN FLUX ARKO DATTA/REUTERS The election scene becomes more complex as the political parties make moves

with post-poll deals in view. BY VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN IN

The number of States that can throw trends in the first phase of the general elections started pouring into his office from different parts of up surprise results is growing. The the country. Barely an hour earlier, the leader was waxing eloquent on how a special team of experts from various disciplines was drawing up plans for Congress and the BJP, the major the first 100 days of the next Congress-led govern- ment. “All those who have left us temporarily will contenders for power, are worried come back once the polls are over. We will have enough seats to attract them back,” the leader had that the emerging trends may upset said. The reports about the polling trends seem to have shaken his confidence. their calculations. The tone and tenor of the discussions that went “THE number of jokers in the pack is increasing. on among the leader and his colleagues that evening Without doubt, this is not good news for the polity or indicated that the party’s calculations did not match for political stability.” This is what a senior Congress its expectations. While the Congress had expected leader told a group of friends and party activists on setbacks in Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand among the evening of April 16, even as reports on the polling the 14 States and three Union Territories that went

4 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 RANJEET KUMAR PTI PEDRO UGARTE/AFP V. GANESAN RAJEEV BHATT PRAKASH SINGH/AFP SUPPORTERS WAVE TO Sonia Gandhi, Congress president, (CLOCKWISE FROM TOP left): Nitish Kumar, at an election rally in Sakoli village, 95 km from Nagpur, Lalu Prasad, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, on April 10. and Jayalalithaa. to the polls on April 16, it had firmly Uttar Pradesh, were cited as the rea- trend in Maharashtra, the BJP is not believed that it would make major sons for this. sure if it will be able to push the Con- gains in Kerala and Orissa and minor It was not the Congress alone that gress to the number two position in the gains in Uttar Pradesh. It had also ex- got its expectations wrong. The debate remaining phases. The doubt was ex- pected to hold on to its previous score among several pressed by none other than Sushma in Maharashtra. The feedback that the (BJP) insiders in Delhi was that the Swaraj, former Union Minister and se- Congress leader received from the party’s performance in Maharashtra nior BJP leader. Her comment, made a States did confirm the expected revers- was not what had been projected in the few days before the first round of poll- es in Andhra Pradesh. However, affir- detailed study notes it had prepared. ing, was that she was not sure whether mation about any gains was absent in However, there was also the assump- the BJP-led National Democratic Alli- the reports from Kerala, Orissa and tion that the gains accrued to the BJP ance (NDA) would get a majority or Uttar Pradesh. A variety of factors, in eastern Uttar Pradesh were much whether the BJP would emerge as the ranging from organisational apathy to higher than its expectations. As per the single largest party. Other top leaders the presence of new regional parties, feedback available to the BJP leader- of the BJP, including party president such as the Praja Rajyam in Andhra ship, the party appears to have main- Rajnath Singh and prime ministerial Pradesh, and small-time spoilers, such tained its position of advantage in candidate L.K. Advani, however, con- as the Ulema Council (U.C.) in eastern Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Given the tinue to maintain that the BJP would

FRONTLINE 5 MAY 8, 2009 SAURABH DAS/AP AJIT SOLANKI/AP SONIA GANDHI ADDRESSING a Congress election L.K. ADVANI AT a party workers’ meeting in rally in Varanasi, which went to the polls on April 16. Gandhinagar, his constituency, on April 8.

emerge as the single largest party. the two main contenders. The Nation- would even out their losses. For ex- Congress leaders nurture similar alist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sha- ample, it was expected that the Con- hopes. rad Pawar, a constituent of the United gress would make some gains in In a nutshell, the message that Progressive Alliance (UPA), repeated- Punjab (where it got only two of the 13 emanated from the camps of the two ly stressed the importance of an alli- seats in 2004) and that would be nulli- big parties was that their calculations ance with important Left parties after fied in Haryana, where it had nine out had gone awry. Both the parties had the polls. On the NDA side, Bihar of 10. In Gujarat, the BJP was expected displayed a penchant for miscalcula- Chief Minister and Janata Dal (Unit- to improve upon its 2004 tally of 14 out tion while assessing the affinity or lack ed) leader Nitish Kumar came up with of 26, while the tally of the BJP-Shiv of it of their existing and potential alli- an ambiguous statement: “Today, I am Sena combine in Maharashtra – 25 out ance partners. This inability was evi- with the NDA, who knows what will of 48 – was expected to come down. In dent when the BJP lost an ally in the happen tomorrow?” Karnataka, too, the BJP was expected Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa and According to an associate of the to maintain its high score (18 out of the Congress watched the spectacle of senior Congress leader, what was most 28). the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata worrying was that four more phases of But as electioneering gathered mo- Dal (RJD) and the Ramvilas Paswan- polling remained. “Things can get mentum, with dramatic developments led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) charting quite volatile during this period. The such as the one that saw journalist their own independent course in asso- big question is whether the leadership Jarnail Singh aim a shoe at Home ciation with a potential Congress ally, of our party will have the kind of skills Minister P. Chidambaram at a press the (S.P.). required to handle such uneven politi- conference in protest against the clean Other constituents of the coali- cal situations,” he said. chit given by the Central Bureau of tions led by the two parties were also In the early run-up to the polls, the Investigation to Jagdish Tytler in the making disparate noises, which ob- general assessment in political circles 1984 anti-Sikh riots case, all the poll viously did not suit the larger goals of was that the gains of the Big Two arithmetic became increasingly defi-

6 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

cient. The Sikh resentment against the hand). Any gains or losses in this belt While the electoral trends in these Congress nomination of Tytler and will be crucial for the Congress and the States are crucial for the two big Sajjan Kumar, another accused in the BJP. The effort of the fourth front was players, the trends especially in And- riots case, is naturally bound to have obviously to become the most dom- hra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Na- an impact in Punjab, where the pop- inant player in the region and thus call du and Kerala are equally important ulation is predominantly Sikh. Natu- the shots when the Congress or any for the Third Front. A good perfor- rally, doubts were expressed about the other secular formation emerged with mance by the Third Front in these projection of the Congress’ gains in sufficient numbers to form the govern- States will basically be at the cost of the Punjab. In the case of the BJP, the ment at the Centre. Congress and its allies. A positive re- developing political climate marked by Given this background, the num- sult for the Third Front in the 143 seats the growing public resentment against ber of States that can throw up surprise in these States will naturally make it the governance in Karnataka, which is results has grown considerably. Ac- more appealing to the fourth front. seen as promoting aggressive Hindut- cording to the veteran political analyst It is important for the Congress to va, raised questions about the projec- Hariraj Singh Tyagi, the most crucial hold on to its tally in Andhra Pradesh tion that the party would maintain its battles will be those fought in Andhra (29 out of 42) and make dramatic winning streak in the State. Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajas- gains in West Bengal, Kerala and Pun- The withdrawal of the RJD, the than, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Ker- jab where it won six out of 42, none out LJP and the S.P. in Bihar, Uttar Pra- ala and Punjab. According to him, the of 20 and two out of 13 respectively in desh and Jharkhand from the UPA to elections in these States, taken individ- the last elections. The NDA will have form a fourth front added yet another ually and cumulatively, can impact the to strive hard for good results in Bihar confusing dimension to this process. three formations to such an extent as (where it won 11 out of 40) and Uttar These States account for 134 of the 543 to make or mar their importance at the Pradesh (10 out of 80) and maintain its seats in the (80 in Uttar national level. These States together position in Rajasthan (21 out of 25). Pradesh, 40 in Bihar and 14 in Jhark- have 301 seats. According to a senior BJP leader, the RUPAK DE CHOWDHURI/REUTERS

CPI(M) SUPPORTERS AT an election campaign rally addressed by Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee at Naxalbari village near Siliguri on April 17.

FRONTLINE 7 MAY 8, 2009

‘Three-way contest’

Interview with Prakash Karat, CPI(M) general secretary. BY VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN

PRAKASH KARAT, general secreta- ry of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), points out that the most significant characteristic of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections is the emergence of a non-Congress, non-Bharatiya Ja- nata Party (BJP) combination. “It was being said that this election was going to be a two-way fight, but it has be- come a three-way fight and that has changed the overall equation.” In an interview to Frontline, Karat express- es the optimism that many more par- ties, which are aligned at present with either the UPA or the NDA, will find the Third Front attractive. Excerpts:

The long election process, spread over 30 days, has started. What is your evaluation of the situation at this juncture? Viewed in its totality, one thing is clear. There is a three-way contest in this election. There was a thinking earlier that it would be a two-way

fight. But that has changed concretely A. ROY CHOWDHURY with the formation of the non-Con- PRAKASH KARAT: “I think the realignment of forces reflects the gress, non-BJP alliance, which is long-term decline of both the Congress and the BJP.” fighting as a pre-election alliance in many States. The formation has Congress in the UPA are charting successes of the Left was that when emerged as a major presence in many their own paths, be it the RJD, the we supported the UPA government, States across the country, such as LJP or the S.P. If the Congress was we kept the issues of the people Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Ta- really picking up and getting more, squarely before the country and be- mil Nadu and West Bengal. This has none of these allies would have liked fore the government. Questions such changed the overall equation nation- to leave it. So the ground reality is that as the employment guarantee scheme ally. There is a clear three-cornered all these parties, which were keen on or tackling the agrarian crisis came up contest. an alliance with the Congress earlier, as part of our efforts. Even the issue of are no longer of the same view. So, the farm loan waiver finally came as a What, according to you, are the reality is that the space for the Third response to the position we took on principal factors that caused this Front has expanded with the decline such issues. Now there is the impact realignment of forces? of the two major parties. of the global economic crisis, loss of I think it reflects the long-term lakhs of jobs, and then we have the decline of both the Congress and the What would you say is the single failure to tackle the price rise of the BJP. In the last election, these two most important reason for the shift essential commodities continually. parties together got 48.6 per cent of of several regional parties away They say the rate of inflation is below the votes. This time around, what we from the Congress and the BJP? 1 per cent. But the prices of all food see is that most of the partners of the In the past five years, one of the items continue to shoot up. These are

8 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

NDA will have to double its seats in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in order to be the issues that I think determine the the alternative set of policies that we anywhere in the reckoning for power. people’s choice. can build upon after the elections “Only such a result will make us attrac- when the question of formation of the tive once more to former and prospec- There is also a perception that many government comes up. tive partners such as the All India of these parties have come out of Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam either the BJP-led coalition or the There are some issues on which [AIADMK] and the BJD,” he said. one led by the Congress essentially there are major differences. For Obviously, all this is easier said because they were unable to strike a example, the question about than done. According to the Lucknow- good bargain with these big parties statehood for Telangana in Andhra based political analyst Indra Bhushan in terms ofseats. Pradesh, where the constituents of Singh, the problem with the two big I do not think that is correct. Take the ‘grand alliance’ speak in parties is that they are forced to fight the example of Bihar. If the RJD had different voices. known adversaries as well as un- given a couple of more seats to the We know that. We are aware that known, undefined ones. The strengths Congress, it would have stayed on in most of these parties are for a sep- and weaknesses of the known adver- the RJD-led alliance. So, the projec- arate state of Telangana. We will ad- saries can be measured with some level tion that it is the result of bargain is dress that question after the of accuracy, but gauging the impact of too far-fetched. It is more a recog- elections. unknown adversaries is almost impos- nition that we don’t need the Con- sible. gress. It is more an assertion of the What exactly is the equation “And the current political climate fact that the UPA partners are real- between the BSP and the Third is such that even known political enti- ising that it is not necessary to be with Front in practical terms? ties are at times acquiring the dimen- the Congress to win the elections. We arrived at an understanding, sions of the unknown. It is a kind of This way they also keep open mul- which was reflected in the statements surreal political flip-flop. It is these tiple options after the elections. If the made on March 15 after the nine- flip-flops that you see when Nitish Ku- Congress does well in the polls, they party meet. The statement said that mar wonders where he will be tomor- may still go with it. But right now, in we would work together to defeat the row or when Lalu Prasad or Sharad the elections, they don’t see the Con- Congress and the BJP and after the Pawar say that the Left parties are nat- gress as a party that can help their elections we would work together for ural allies. Undoubtedly, this has com- prospects. the formation of a non-Congress, plicated the picture further for the big non-BJP government. That is the un- parties.” While many parties have come derstanding. It [the BSP] is fighting Indra Bhushan Singh’s observa- together to fight the elections, do the elections on its own. But it is also tion does have great relevance when you think the policy framework of fighting the Congress and the BJP one considers the fact that barring the the third alternative has really taken and we are also fighting the Congress Left, all parties are talking about post- some kind of shape? and the BJP. After the elections we poll regrouping. Even the big two are See, the Left parties have been can come together. not exempt from this kind of convolut- putting forward third alternative pol- ed discourse. BJP leaders, including icies. We have had discussions with But the BSP is fighting against you Advani, are on record that they are still parties we have allied with in the too in many places. hopeful about the return of regional States, such as the TDP [Telugu De- Well, we don’t see that as a major parties such as the AIADMK, the BJD sam Party], about the policy platform problem. Their fighting a few seats in and the Trinamool Congress to the we should build up. This is a State- Kerala or West Bengal or we fighting fold, while Prime Minister Manmohan by-State alliance. some seats in Uttar Pradesh is not Singh has made bold to say that “re- We have started not with a na- going to upset the common goal. gional parties are not good for the de- tional alliance, but by having electo- velopment of the country” and that he ral understanding in various States. There is a perception that more “regrets having had to part with the There we are putting forth our pol- parties of the UPA and the NDA may Left”. icies for the people. And in two find the Third Front more attractive He also added that the Congress States, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa, after the elections. How would you would be only too happy to take the in the Assembly elections also. We respond to such views? support of the Left parties after the talk in concrete terms about the We hope so. We hope that they elections. Evidently, the message things the new governments there will find us more attractive after the about too many jokers in the pack has should do. So I think that constitutes elections. spread far and wide in the country’s elections to the . २

FRONTLINE 9 MAY 8, 2009

‘No Advani agenda’

Interview with BJP leader L.K. Advani. BY VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN

RIGHT from the start of the election participation of my senior colleague that revolved entirely around the campaign, L.K. Advani, the Bharatiya and leader, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The premise that the BJP has to be kept Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministe- happy part was that for the first time, out of power? The Congress and the rial candidate, set himself a puni- the BJP was without the tag of a Left came together on this singular shing schedule. On an average, he North Indian party. opportunistic premise even when the addresses three public meetings a day Our victory in Karnataka and the differences between them on a num- and packs in a number of strategy formation of the government in this ber of policy issues were evident from meetings with State and regional South Indian State has made the BJP day one. Both the sides are now forced leaders in different parts of the coun- an all-India party. On the other hand, to face the wages of opportunism. try. the Congress is steadily declining and Frontline accompanied him for this is evident from the manner in But the Trinamool Congress too two days during one of his tours, which the United Progressive Alli- chose the Congress ahead of you. which involved flying long distance ance [UPA] has disintegrated. The The Trinamool Congress is a dif- from Delhi to Coimbatore to Thiruva- allies of the Congress in the UPA have ferent kind of party. nanthapuram to Raipur in a char- deserted it and this reflects the real- tered aircraft and chopper-hopping isation that aligning with the Con- The BJP has raised the slogans of to different destinations in Chhattis- gress is not beneficial to them. “good governance, development and garh. The conversation with the 81- security” as its main election plank. year-old leader comprehensively cov- But the BJP has also lost allies. This has been projected on to your ered the many issues raised by the There was indeed a high after the personality too, with the BJP and the National Democratic Al- Karnataka victory, but after that the supplementary slogan of “strong liance (NDA) in the current elections Telugu Desam Party and the All India leader, decisive government”. Do you and the electoral prospects of the par- Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam think that in the course of the ty. Excerpts: (AIADMK) made it clear that they campaign any of these issues got would not be with the NDA. More greater prominence? You have been campaigning recently, your long-term partner in All the three slogans are equally extensively for over two months. Orissa, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), left important and have captured the How would you evaluate the popular you. minds and hearts of the electorate. reaction to your campaign and the You cannot compare the disinte- The points that we have mentioned, overall political situation in the gration of the UPA with the situation the security of the country and de- country? in the NDA. The TDP was never part fence, have received great attention. I can say confidently that the BJP of the NDA. Barring the departure of In the absence of good governance, is all set to become the single largest the BJD, no allies have left us. And internal security has deteriorated party in this election and the NDA the this too has happened not on account considerably and it is a major con- single largest combine. We will come of any political differences. The BJD cern. up with excellent results in a number is under the impression that it does Also, our document on IT [infor- of States, including Maharashtra, Bi- not require the BJP to win the As- mation technology] vision, which har, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Kar- sembly elections in Orissa, and it cre- emphasises using this latest invention nataka and Chhattisgarh and in ated, during the seat-sharing talks, a for spreading better education, im- Assam and the other north-eastern situation where the alliance could not proving the agricultural sector, im- States taken as a whole. As I began the have continued. proving services and also campaign, I said at a few meetings In fact, the NDA was a true model strengthening security in such a man- that the current elections had two of what a coalition should be in this ner as to prevent illegal immigration, major differences for the BJP com- country, whereas the UPA and the have all received wide acceptance and pared with earlier ones. One differ- understanding it had with the Left appreciation. ence was sad and the other joyous. parties for most part of its regime The issue of bringing back Indian The sad part was that I was cam- meant a mismatch from day one. black money kept in Swiss bank ac- paigning without the guidance and What can one say about an alliance counts, too, is being widely discussed.

10 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

When I first saw this news report Vajpayee was the leader of the BJP’s about the readiness of the Swiss parliamentary section and there was banks to divulge the names of those no emphasis on a BJP manifesto, but who have illegally stashed away their now under Advani the emphasis is money, I wrote to Prime Minister back. to take steps to There was a BJP manifesto even pursue this. There was no move from in 1998. The agenda of governance the government. Our point is that if came after government formation. this money can be brought back, it Between the 1998 and 1999 polls can be channelled to strengthen de- there was not much gap and hence velopment programmes. the BJP did not issue a separate man- ifesto. Only in 2004 was there an Would it be right to sum up that the NDA manifesto, without one of the economic policy issues you have BJP’s own. We have had to make raised in the manifesto and during some effort to make our cadre un- the campaign are evoking greater derstand that in a coalition govern- response than other issues? ment, the government can Especially in the context of the implement only those issues on

economic slowdown and price rise? RAJESH KUMAR SINGH/AP which all the partners have agreed. I The issue of bringing black money ADVANI: “THE BJP is all set to remember, in 1998, when our agenda back from Swiss banks is just not become the single largest party was discussed with our allies, all of about illegal money parked by the in this election.” them said that they had no objection rich abroad. It is also about security. to our distinctive plan of making In- Even the National Security Adviser generated prosperity has burst and dia a nuclear power, but I could not had pointed out that black money that such undependable devices of expect them to agree to either Ram from outside the country finds its way the free market economy cannot be temple or the abrogation of Article into the Indian market as “terror the basis for building a truly 370. money”. prosperous nation. Given this, would We are still continuing with that The NDA will pursue this as a there be a course correction in the premise. There is no need to see a serious matter that concerns not only policy perspectives that the NDA Vajpayee agenda or an Advani agen- the economy but also internal secur- pursued during its six years in da in this. ity. In terms of economic policy, I will office? say the cardinal mistake of the UPA We have said that the steps we Aggressive pursuit of Hindutva has has been the neglect of agricultural took in the direction of improving our not been officially part of the BJP’s irrigation and farming. Tens of thou- infrastructure is the right economic campaign these days. But there are sands of farmers have committed sui- policy direction. The steps that we organisations, such as the Sri Rama cide on account of this neglect. took to build the East-West Corridor, Sene, which have taken up this. Golden Quadrilateral and the initia- There are also sporadic communal There is also a stream of opinion tive to set up a task force to interlink speeches, such as the one by Varun that many regional parties have left rivers are part of this direction. We Gandhi. There is a view that this is all the UPA and the NDA essentially will continue to follow that line. part of a larger Hindutva plan of because they have sensed a multi-speaking. disconnect between people’s There is also a view that there is a The BJP has no connection with concerns and the economic policy qualitative difference in the NDA’s Sri Rama Sene. In fact, it had contest- thrust of the Congress and the BJP. cohesion this time. For the first time ed against the BJP in the Karnataka As I mentioned earlier, no region- since 1999, there is no common NDA elections. There is little doubt that it al party other than the BJD has left manifesto. The BJP has come up is an extremist group. Will you hold the NDA. And the BJD’s departure with its own manifesto emphasising the CPI(M) responsible for the extre- has nothing to do with policy thrusts the core Hindutva-oriented issues mist crimes of naxalites? As for Varun or perspectives. that were kept out earlier. Now the Gandhi, he has denied that he made question is whether there is a the alleged communal speech. Let in- But you have gone on record as Vajpayee agenda and an Advani vestigations be completed on this saying that the bubble of Sensex- agenda in this. In 1999 and 2004, case.

FRONTLINE 11 Cover Story MAY 8, 2009 Strategic moves

Bipolarity is no longer a feature of elections in North India; several States see multi-cornered contests this time.

S.P. would be able to capitalise on it. However, as the Two new Muslim parties are five-phase election process made its tortuous course across the most populous State in the country, the threatening to upset the calculations idea of bipolarity got diluted, although it remains a central factor. Put simply, the elections are becoming in eastern and central U.P.; new multidimensional, with different factors getting prominence in different parts of the State. In effect, a social combinations have an edge in number of constituencies have assumed absolutely unique characteristics. Bihar; and the Akalis return to Sikh Cases in point are Pilibhit, which goes to the polls in the last phase of the elections, on May 13; Basti, identity politics in Punjab. which has voting in the second phase, on April 23; and Azamgarh, where polling was completed in the UTTAR PRADESH first phase, on April 16. The main issue in Pilibhit is not the governance of the Mayawati regime or that of MINORITY FACTOR the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) By Venkitesh Ramakrishnan in Lucknow at the Centre or the efficacy of the S.P. or the Bharati- IN the early run-up to the elections for the 80 ya Janata Party (BJP) as opposition parties. The seats in Uttar Pradesh, the general assumption was debate in the constituency revolves around the com- that the contest in the State would be bipolar, that is, munal speech made by the BJP candidate, Varun between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Gandhi, and the reactions it has evoked from the Samajwadi Party (S.P.). The elections were viewed as State government as well as from the different par- a test of the two principal contenders’ ability to keep ties in the contest. The debate, clearly, has assumed or lose their core constituencies. And the two impor- communal overtones of the Hindutva variety. tant factors considered in this analysis were the Azamgarh, too, represents a sort of communal amount of support the BSP had lost on account of the feeling, albeit with a difference. Here, the wides- anti-incumbency factor and the extent to which the pread hurt and anger that the Batla House encounter in Delhi’s Jamia Nagar on October 18, 2008, had caused among large segments of the Muslim pop- ulation has evolved into an important political fac- tor. Termed the “Batla House effect” locally, this anger has resulted in mass mobilisation of the Mus- lim community under the banner of a variety of new organisations such as the Ulema Council (U.C.) and the Peace Party of India (PPI). Both the U.C. and the PPI advocate a particular brand of secular politics that opposes not only the BJP’s Hindutva but also secular mainstream parties such as the BSP, the S.P. and the Congress. Tahir Mahdani, leader of the U.C., says: “The Muslim minorities have been repeatedly let down by the leadership of all the secular parties. For 44 years

JITENDRA PRAKASH /REUTERS since Independence, the upper-caste leadership of A VHP ACTIVIST at an election campaign rally in the Congress took the minority community for a ride, Allahabad on April 17. while those like the S.P. and the BSP, with non-

12 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 PAWAN KUMAR LOK JANSHAKTI PARTY chief Ram Vilas Paswan with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh at a joint election rally in Safai, Uttar Pradesh, on April 9. upper-caste leaderships, also did the same after 1991. This serial betrayal has made sincere secularists within the community and outside to come to- gether and look for new alternatives.” The U.C. has put up candidates in seven constituencies – Azamgarh, Lal- ganj, Jaunpur, Machli Shahahar, Am- bedkar Nagar, Kanpur and Lucknow. Most of those killed and captured in the Batla House encounter hailed from Azamgarh. The PPI has fielded candi- dates in five seats – Khalilabad, Deo- ria, Varanasi, Basti and Gonda. The popular response to the U.C.’s Azamgarh candidate, Dr. Javed Ak- thar, and the PPI’s Khalilabad candi- date, Rajesh Singh, have been so AFP ACTOR AND SAMAJWADI PARTY secretary-general Sanjay Dutt and the striking that the supporters of the BSP S.P. candidate Nafisa Ali, in Lucknow on April 15. and the S.P. have started complaining that the U.C. and the PPI are only litical appeal to win some of these seats tional machinery has suffered in the indirectly helping the BJP and its com- is viewed with scepticism, but there is past decade. Vinay Katiyar, BJP lead- munal agenda. little doubt that in terms of sheer elec- er, summed up the situation as fol- The majority of the seats where the toral arithmetic the presence of these lows: “A quantification of the seats U.C. and the PPI have emerged as sig- parties in the fray and the division of that the BJP will ultimately get may nificant factors were held by the BSP minority votes they can cause has giv- not be possible at present, but there is or the S.P. in 2004. By all indications, en a fillip to the BJP in a number of little doubt that we have moved far the impact of the two outfits is felt, in seats. ahead of the predictions made by for- varying degrees, in 15 seats in eastern It is a moot question whether the mer Chief Minister and BJP deserter and central Uttar Pradesh. The claim saffron party will be able to convert Kalyan Singh, who put our 2009 tally of U.C. and PPI leaders that they have this impetus into electoral victories, at five, plus or minus one.” Katiyar said enough organisational power and po- given the degeneration its organisa- that the development efforts in the ar-

FRONTLINE 13 MAY 8, 2009

eas inhabited by the minority commu- the advantage it had at the start of the nity in eastern and central Uttar Pra- election process. desh, coupled with the BJP’s alliance In spite of these new develop- with the -led Rashtriya Lok ments, the BSP leadership maintains Dal (RLD), would help improve the that it will still emerge as the largest party’s tally substantially. The RLD force in the State. “Our core vote is in wields significant influence in some tact, incumbency or no incumbency,” pockets of western Uttar Pradesh. said Satish Chandra Mishra, the par- The party that is most upset with ty’s Brahmin face and No. 2 in the the turn of events is the S.P. The fron- hierarchy. Other party leaders support trunner in the 2004 polls, with 39 this view, stating that the BSP has a seats, the S.P. had hoped to repeat that strong core vote base in 55 of the 80 performance by capitalising on the an- seats in the State. ti-incumbency feeling against the “All that we need to do is to supple- Mayawati government. But the emer- ment this core vote with additional gence of factors with communal over- votes from other communities. And it tones is wrecking its chances in a is happening across the State in about number of constituencies. S.P. leader 40 to 50 seats. The revival of the BJP in Ram Gopal Yadav points out that the eastern Uttar Pradesh will drive the BSP and the BJP have been playing an Muslim minorities in other constitu- orchestrated game to stoke communal encies to seek the strongest anti-BJP polarisation in the State. He is opti- candidate, and that candidate has mistic that the people will ultimately been provided by the BSP in the major- see through these games. ity of seats,” said a Lucknow-based S.P. insiders, however, admit that BSP leader. The BSP has a large num- the party did make some organisation- ber of muscle-men candidates and it al mistakes, such as associating with remains to be seen whether the minor- Kalyan Singh. The resentment this ac- ity community will seek this kind of tion has evoked within the party has strength when it looks for an alterna- been expressed even by senior leaders tive to the BJP. such as Azam Khan, and this has The Congress’ campaign, essen- strengthened the position of the new tially spreading out of Rae Bareli and strong ripple effect this time in the Muslim outfits. Clearly, the S.P. needs Amethi, the traditional strongholds of neighbouring constituencies of Sul- to take some drastic steps to hold on to the Nehru-Gandhi family, has had a tanpur and Pratapgarh. This has add- ed to the multidimensional nature of the polls in U.P., albeit in a small way.

BIHAR SOCIAL EQUATIONS By Venkitesh Ramakrishnan in Patna “THERE are always some impon- derables in politics, and they raise their head from time to time. The elec- tions in Bihar this time are no excep- tion.” This was how a senior leader of the ruling Janata Dal (United) respon- ded to the Maoist violence in the first phase of polling in the State on April 16. Apparently, the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s assessment was that Bi- PEDRO UGARTE/AFP har was less prone to Maoist attacks on AT A BAHUJAN Samaj Party rally in Nuh, 100 km south of New Delhi. the election process as compared to the

14 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 PRASHANT RAVI/AP BIHAR CHIEF MINISTER Nitish Kumar addresses an NDA election rally in Buxar in Bihar. BJP leader L.K. Advani is also present. neighbouring State of Jharkhand as crucial weakness of both the major for- Raut, a leader belonging to the Ex- well as Chhattisgarh and Orissa. How- mations in the fray in the State – the tremely Backward Castes (EBC), was ever, Maoist attacks were widespread NDA and the fourth front rustled up chosen as the candidate. The argu- in a number of districts of Bihar. In the by combining the RJD, the Lok Jan- ment was that this would help the par- holy town of Gaya, a policeman and a shakti Party (LJP) and the S.P. As a ty consolidate its base among the Home Guard were killed even as the result they have been forced to fight EBCs. Digvijay Singh promptly quit militants took away an electronic vot- with their backs to the wall in many the JD(U) and has entered the fray as ing machine and four rifles. constituencies, which they had other- an independent. In the process, he has Cases of assaults were reported wise considered sure seats. rallied a sizable section of his own Tha- from constituencies such as Maharaj- The cases in point are Banka and kur community, the traditional sup- ganj, Jehanabad, Karakat, Auranga- Supaul, which go to the polls in the port base of the BJP, a partner of the bad and Jamui. In Jamui, the district third phase on April 30. JD(U) leader JD(U) in the NDA, behind him. The president of the JD(U) was injured in Digvijay Singh, who was a Minister in RJD has fielded the dynamic Jaipra- an attack. Obviously, neither the go- the previous NDA government at the kash Narayan Yadav as its candidate vernment nor the ruling combination Centre, belongs to one of the aristo- and is clearly enjoying the divisions in had anticipated such a concerted at- cratic families of Banka and has been the NDA. tack from the extremists. contesting this seat since 1991. In the In Supaul, the situation is reversed. In a sense, this lack of anticipation last elections in 2004 he lost it by just Here the sitting LJP candidate, Ran- of the threat posed by adversaries and 4,500 votes. Given his track record, jeeta Ranjan, was nominated by her detractors and their potential to cause Digvijay Singh was sure of contesting party, but the demands made by her harm is not confined to the question of the seat this time. Nitish Kumar’s JD controversial husband Pappu Yadav, a Maoist violence. In Bihar’s current (U) thought otherwise. Digvijay Singh murder convict, were not accepted by election scenario, this is becoming a was denied the ticket and Damodar the fourth front leaders Ram Vilas Pas-

FRONTLINE 15 MAY 8, 2009

trating on select constituencies. Its campaign is most intensive in the con- stituencies of Siwan, Arrah, Begu Sarai and Jehanabad.

CRUCIAL MINORITY VOTE Common perceptions on the net result have it that the NDA and the fourth front will share the majority of the 42 seats, with the Congress and the Left combine managing to win a few seats. The big question, however, is which of the two major formations will go ahead in the battle for the number one spot. Here, the issue comes back to the questions as to which of the forma- tions has the winning social combina- tion. Overall, the Other Backward Classes-Yadav-Dalit Dussadh social combinations of the fourth front would be more or less matched by the

RANJEET KUMAR OBC-Kurmi-EBC-upper caste combi- INDO-TIBETAN BORDER POLICE personnel take out a flag march on the nation of the NDA. In this context, the eve of the first phase of polling in the Jehanabad constituency, which is in a battle of the two formations, right region in Bihar affected by naxalism. from the early stages, has been to gar- ner a larger chunk of the Muslim mi- wan and Lalu Prasad. Ranjeeta Ran- Sheohar. Whatever the electoral gains nority vote. The community, on its jan left the LJP and joined the Con- it makes by accepting leaders like this part, seems to be adopting tactical vot- gress along with her husband, who was into its fold, the Congress has certainly ing on the basis of constituencies and earlier with the Lalu Prasad-led RJD. lost the moral high ground it had cho- candidates. In Supaul, which goes to the polls in sen to tread for a quite a long time. This marks a shift from the com- the third phase, and in Purnea, Pappu However, many Congress leaders munity’s position in the early stages of Yadav’s original constituency where in the State pointed out that the fourth the campaign, which held that though his mother Shanti Devi is contesting as front leaders had insulted them Nitish Kumar’s secular credentials are an independent, the fourth front has, roundly by offering a measly three acceptable, minorities cannot vote for in a sense, queered the pitch for itself. seats and that the primary task this the JD(U) because the NDA’s ultimate Another interesting turn in this time around was to win more seats, at aim is to elevate Hindutva’s original round of elections is the manner in any cost, and take revenge on the RJD- charioteer L.K. Advani to the Prime which the Congress, which used to ac- LJP leaderships. Whether this would Minister’s position. By all indications, cuse all the major forces in Bihar in- ultimately work out is to be seen, but the formation of the fourth front itself cluding its one-time allies – the RJD the Congress leadership is brimming has contributed to this shift. For, the and the LJP – as havens of criminals, with hope in many a constituency. functionaries of the RJD and the LJP has started accepting scores of people According to the senior JD(U) have been complaining across the with criminal records, after they have leader, “imponderables” have affected State as to how the JD(U) leadership been sent out of the regional parties in almost all formations equally and has kept lines of communication open the State. The list includes Sadhu Ya- hence it may not alter the net result with both the Congress and the Third dav, Lalu Prasad’s brother-in-law and substantially. In all probability, the Front. former RJD MP, who is contesting only formation that has not suc- Nitish Kumar himself has been, in from West Champaran, Tarkeshwar cumbed to this factor “is the Left com- a sense, reinforcing these perceptions Singh (Maharajganj) and Shamim Ak- bine consisting of the Communist by making statements such as “today I htar (Valmikinagar). All of them have Party of India (Marxist-Leninist, Lib- am in NDA, who knows where I will be dozens of criminal charges against eration) or CPI (ML), the Communist tomorrow”. The overall effect of all this them. Lovely Anand, wife of Anand Party of India (CPI) and the Commu- should finally result in an edge, albeit Mohan, a murder convict who has nist Party of India (Marxist). However, not too huge, to the Nitish Kumar-led been barred from contesting by the the Left combine is not uniformly NDA. २ court, is the Congress candidate from strong across the State and is concen-

16 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

HARYANA seats each, as constituents of the NDA. The BJP may find it difficult to retain FACTION FIGHTS Sonepat, the only seat won by the NDA By T.K. Rajalakshmi in Rohtak in the previous elections. The INLD IF there was one State in the north, drew a blank. other than Delhi where the Congress Another reason why the Congress had fewer obstacles in winning a com- may face an uphill task is the entry of fortable number of seats, it was Harya- the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) na. But the situation is not so headed by Bhajan Lal and his son Kul- comfortable this time as faction feuds deep Bishnoi on the election scene. Po- have begun to emerge in the party. litical observers pointed to a possible These factions are led by some ambi- understanding between the INLD and tious leaders, each one trying to estab- the HJC over some seats, including lish himself as an alternative to Chief Hisar where Bhajan Lal is contesting. Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The troubles for the Congress in- These leaders, some of whom are Min- creased as A.C. Choudhary, Minister isters in the Hooda Cabinet, have ex- for Urban Local Bodies, protested pressed their unhappiness rather against the State leadership for ignor- publicly over the distribution of the ing the claims of the “Punjabi” com- party ticket and have accused the Chief munity. He even threatened to resign. Minister of ignoring the interests of Efforts are on to placate him. certain castes. Some of them even ap- The BSP is trying to get a foothold proached the party high command in in the State. Party workers pointed out Delhi with their grievances. that Mayawati addressed four massive On April 14, Birender Singh, Fi- rallies in the State. “At all her meet- nance Minister and a strong claimant have begun to see the Hooda govern- ings, Behanji appealed for a non-Con- for the Sonepat seat, declared his un- ment as no different from the previous gress, non-BJP alternative,” said willingness to be part of the campaign one led by Om Prakash Chautala of the Shekhar Raj Sharma, son of Raj Ku- rallies led by Hooda. The Congress Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). Yet, mar Sharma, the BSP candidate for nominee for Sonepat is Jitendra Ma- Hooda is considered the Jat alterna- Rohtak. Raj Kumar Sharma, who was lik, a Member of the Legislative As- tive to Chautala. The Jat vote, political with the BJP for more than two dec- sembly and a Hooda loyalist. “The observers say, had shifted from the ades until 2007, faces Dipender Hoo- Finance Minister wanted the Sonepat INLD to the Congress in a big way. The da, sitting MP and son of the Chief seat for himself as it is a comfortable INLD and the BJP are contesting five Minister. seat for the Congress,” said a Congress- Unable to hold on to the Amabala man in Rohtak. (S.C.) seat, which the BSP had won in In view of the factionalism and the the past, all energies are focussed on unpopularity of the sitting MP, Avtar Gurgaon, which has a decisive and siz- Singh Bhadana, Faridabad may no able Meo Muslim population. The par- longer be considered a safe seat. So a ty candidate for the seat is Zakir party that romped home with nine out Hussain, son of the late Meo leader of 10 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha Chaudhary Tayyab Hussain. Congress elections and secured an overwhelm- nominee Rao Inderjit’s antecedents ing majority in the Assembly elections are as lofty as that of ’s. a year later may find even reaching the His father, Rao Birender, was a well- halfway mark difficult. In the Assemb- known Ahir leader in southern Harya- ly elections, the Congress consolidated na. BSP candidates are depending on its votes in a decisive manner, winning social engineering, hoping that while 67 of the 90 seats. There was no chal- they get the caste votes of the candi- lenge to Hooda’s leadership then. date, the vote bank of “behanji” would Four years down the line, the law automatically come to them. and order situation has deteriorated, The Congress has an advantage in industrial unrest across the State has the sense that it faces a fragmented been put down brutally and the go- and disparate opposition. Inderjit vernment’s acquisition of land for in- BHUPINDER SINGH HOODA, Singh, CPI(M) State secretary, said a dustry has faced resistance. The people Haryana Chief Minister. third front in the State could have tak-

FRONTLINE 17 MAY 8, 2009 PTI HARYANA JANHIT CONGRESS chief Bhajan Lal with son and party leader Kuldeep Bishnoi (right) and party candidate Chander Bhatia in Faridabad. en charge had the BSP, the NCP, the HJC and the Left come together on some issues. “On the basis of a com- mon minimum understanding on pol- icies, we wanted to prevent the division of the prospective third front parties such as the BSP and the HJC. Un- fortunately, the leaders of these parties did not understand the seriousness of the situation. This kind of a platform could have formed the basis for an al- ternative. Maybe we can take it up in the future,” he said. Inderjt Singh said that the BJP- INLD alliance had hardly any issue to campaign against the Hooda govern- ment. The model of development pur- sued by the Congress did not help the common man in any way, he said, but as none of the other parties, barring the Left, had an economic agenda dif- ferent from that of the Congress, the electorate did not feel optimistic about the alternatives. The CPI(M) and the CPI are contesting Sirsa and Karnal. Sirsa has the largest number of S.C. votes in the State. The CPI(M), he said, had gained a foothold in Hisar, Sirsa, Jind and Bhiwani, thanks to its work among the peasantry and agricultural PTI workers. RAO INDERJEET SINGH, Congress candidate for Gurgaon, on the way to file Ram Kumar Bahbalpuria, the par- his nomination papers. ty’s candidate in Sirsa, is the State gen-

18 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

eral secretary of the All India Agricul- pendent state called Khalistan. The tural Workers’ Union. The Congress SAD did not fully participate in the has fielded Ashok Tanwar, the all-In- militant movement, though. dia president of the National Students’ In the Moga Declaration, the SAD Union of India, although the INLD delineated a general shift in policy to candidate, with some support from the cooperative federalism with the Indian HJC, seems to be in a better position to state and an agenda to make Punjab an win at this stage. Interestingly, Con- inclusive society and polity and not gress factionalism is at its lowest in this just a Sikh state, with emphasis on constituency. reconstruction. This was hailed by “The Hooda government has done many political analysts. One of the rea- nothing. Development is about creat- sons for this policy shift was the SAD’s ing jobs. The Congress government inability to get a majority in the State managed to get only one unit of Asian Assembly. Paints during its regime. How many Says Professor Ashutosh Kumar of jobs do you think that will generate for Panjab University: “The SAD could the whole State?” Sant Ram, former never win on its own with the Sikh MLA and INLD spokesperson asked. agenda. Its ideology alienated Hindus, He said Hooda’s son would be defeat- who form 44 per cent of the population ed in Rohtak. of Punjab. [The Sikhs comprise 54 per cent of the population.] As such, the alliance with the BJP is not just bene- ficial for the SAD but also necessary, as PUNJAB they complement each other’s vote bank. This has helped them to come to BACK TO IDENTITY power several times. Earlier, it was the Jan Sangh-SAD combine.” POLITICS Therefore, the recent protests in By Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta Punjab against the candidatures of THE Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar, an- which is facing a strong anti-incum- other accused in the riots case, should bency sentiment, is hoping to cash in not be seen as a mere outburst of Sikh on the fresh anger in Punjab against sentiment. A paradigm shift in Punjab the anti-Sikh riots of 1984. Just ahead politics leading to greater polarisation of voting in the State on May 7, the appears to be in progress. The agita- SAD (Badal)-led government has tions were mainly organised by the managed to stir up passions by orga- SAD or by the Shiromani Gurdwara nising mass protests in New Delhi and Prabandhak Committee (SGPC), or by in several districts of Punjab after the mental issues but ventured back to its some fringe Sikh groups. Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) long-abandoned Sikh identity politics. The SGPC has over the years ceded exonerated the Congress leader Jag- Since 1995, the SAD has in princi- much of its control to the SAD. So, it dish Tytler in the anti-Sikh riots case. ple followed the Moga Declaration, can be safely said that the SAD Farmers, local chaiwallahs and which espoused the cause of “Punjab, planned the agitations well and chose shopkeepers, journalists or whoever Punjabi, and Punjabiyat”. By doing so, the eve of the elections to stage them. this correspondent met in Patiala, it distanced itself from the Sikh identi- The question is not whether the SAD Sangrur and Bhatinda discussed only ty, which had been on its agenda since has politicised an emotive issue. The one issue: the clean chit to Tytler. the Anandpur Resolutions of 1973 and reason for the party’s readoption of When the journalist Jarnail Singh hur- 1978. The Anandpur Sahib Resolution Sikh identity becomes clear as one led his shoe at Home Minister P. Chi- demanded that the Central govern- travels in the constituencies of Punjab. dambaram at a press conference in ment cede control of Punjab to a Sikh It is harvest season in the Malwa New Delhi, opinion was divided about government and also stated that it belt, which consists of mostly rural ar- the form of protest. But the political wished to reclaim some territory given eas such as Bhatinda, Ferozepur, Pa- fallout in Punjab of these recent devel- to other Indian States. The demands tiala and Sangrur. Farmers and opments has been beyond expecta- made in the resolution became the agricultural workers this correspond- tions. The SAD has not only shifted the central tenet of the Sikh separatist ent spoke to openly expressed their electoral focus away from develop- movement in the 1980s for an inde- dissatisfaction with the SAD-BJP go-

FRONTLINE 19 MAY 8, 2009

‘It is Congress in Punjab’

Interview with Punjab Congress leader Amarinder Singh. BY AJOY ASHIRWAD MAHAPRASHASTA

CAPTAIN Amarinder Singh, former [cultivation] is being encouraged in- Chief Minister of Punjab, is back in stead of high-value cash crops. The the reckoning. The party high com- State government is not serious. It is mand preferred the list of candidates busy making money by selling sand, provided by him over those given by buses and liquor. other State party leaders, pulling him out of the sidelines he was relegated How do you plan to ensure food to after the party’s defeat in the last security if you stress so much on Assembly elections and his expulsion cash crops? from the Assembly on corruption For paddy, you have many sources charges. In an interview to Frontline, coming up – Andhra Pradesh, Uttar he spoke about the poll issues, the Pradesh and the Ganga project. Pun- party’s agenda, and controversies that jab has led the Green Revolution dog the State Congress. Excerpts: since 1966. It has been paddy-wheat

PTI rotation since then. The end result is How do you plan to take on the SAD AMARINDER SINGH: “I am here degradation of soil quality. Cash (Badal)-BJP ruling combine in this purely because the Congress crops would mean ensuring green round of elections? president has given me this task.” manuring, something people in pow- We have been fighting them for so er are not looking at. long. At the moment they are passing Punjab, we are going to take up other through a bleak period primarily be- issues as well. For instance, water and Has the death of Captain Kanwaljit cause of their misgovernance. Mis- power supply will be major issues. Singh and his son’s rebellion against governance, strong anti-incumbency the SAD made the Congress’s sentiment, treatment meted out to How would you address the position favourable? Congressmen – these are things that widespread agricultural and They [SAD leaders] were treating we are going to use to counter them. I industrial distress? Kanwaljit badly. In the last zilla par- think that even at the grassroots–lev- You cannot survive in this State ishad elections, Sukhbir Badal put up el, people are waiting to get back at purely on the basis of the agricultural candidates against him and defeated the Akalis. sector. A modern state can sustain his candidates in Zirakpur. They were itself only by bringing in industries. I trying to minimise him. Obviously If the Congress wins, what will it do had brought in 399 mega projects. this hurt the family. I think his son is for the State? Even if 50 of those projects had come an intelligent and brave young man. Obviously, the election thrust is into being, the total commitment to He may lose one or two elections but going to be national. Our manifesto is Punjab would have been Rs.1,07,000 he is establishing himself and I am a forward-looking one. The economy crore. Punjab’s groundwater level is sure he will do well. has to be rejuvenated. In the case of declining, rivers are drying up. Paddy Actually, Kanwaljit’s passing vernment. They complained of an in- my. This has alienated from the SAD nior leaders count. Many of them are crease in the cost of inputs, poor power the rural population, which his father unhappy with Sukhbir Badal’s auto- and water supply and the absence of a Prakash Singh Badal had cultivated cratic ways (the Students Organisation good market price for the wheat crop. over the years. of India founded by him allegedly re- Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal While the State government sorted to large-scale violence during has been advocating the establishment blamed the Centre (the Food Corpora- the panchayat elections last year). Al- of more special economic zones tion of India did not lift Punjab’s wheat though Prakash Singh Badal has at- (SEZs), the construction of highways last year), the farmers said the State tempted damage control many a time, and the development of real estate and government was indifferent to their the Badal family is apparently wary of has shown little concern for rural is- plight. Moreover, in a feudal society dissenting party members. sues in a largely agrarian State econo- such as Punjab, respect shown to se- Badal’s concern is not misplaced as

20 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

away is a tragedy as he was a friend; twice. Sonia Gandhi must have had a State for these elections and you are we were in the same regiment. He favourable opinion about her because calling the shots ... that you are the was one of the upright persons in the she has made it to Parliament twice. undisputed leader of the Congress Akali party. People from every dis- This was entirely her choice. party in the State? trict are leaving the SAD and joining No, that’s not true at all. I am here us. This indicates the widespread We hear that you made a list of 13 purely because the Congress presi- feeling of nepotism that has come in- candidates and got it passed and that dent has given me this task. I am a to the Akali Dal. Out of the 13 Minis- is why we see their names. soldier. Whatever jobs are given to ters, seven are relatives [of Chief That’s not the way it happens in me, I carry them out. Minister Prakash Singh Badal]. In the Congress. Certainly I gave my Bhatinda, they could think of no one views. They decided to choose the A media survey says that the else, so they put up their daughter-in- people I recommended. I did it be- Congress will win as many as 11 law. So, everything is concentrated in cause I felt they were the best Con- seats. Your number? the Badal family. There are people in gress candidates. Dr. Jagneet Brar, Thirteen and I shall tell you why. the Akali Dal who have been MLA Manish Tiwari, Santosh Chaudhary If you see the groundswell of opinion seven times, but they have not been are all senior members. The three in Punjab, it is totally pro-Congress. given ministerships. His [Sukhbir’s] choices of the Youth Congress are en- The fact that the Akalis are leaving brother-in-law won for the first time tirely Rahul Gandhi’s. the party and joining the Congress and he was given Cabinet rank. indicates this. People are hurt. In our case, Sonia Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar’s They are responding to what the Gandhi has made it absolutely clear candidatures, the CBI’s clean chit to ground wants. There might be one or that people who have been three-time Tytler, and now the Sikh groups’ two seats that might need a little MLAs must be given Cabinet rank agitation seem to have affected the more effort. But when we go to the and those who have been elected Punjab Congress a bit. polls, I think it is going to be in our twice must be made Ministers of It has not affected us at all. As far favour. State. That is the system that works. as Tytler and Sajjan Kumar are con- cerned they have been in Parliament You say that the misgovernance of Both your wife and son are for 10 years. Ten years ago nobody the SAD-BJP combine will contribute contesting on the Congress ticket. raised this issue. Five years ago no- to their defeat. Does this not amount to nepotism? body raised it. It is a mere electoral The BJP itself is fed up with the I was not the one who decided the ploy. There have been so many grue- SAD. Do you know there have been seats. I was not on the parliamentary some incidents in Punjab where hun- fights between BJP and Akali MLAs, board, chaired by the Congress presi- dreds of people were killed after the and BJP and Akali workers? They are dent. Perhaps they chose Raninder SAD came to power. All the people also fed up with the system. They are because he has been serving as the who were agitating were with Sukh- sticking on because of compulsions. party general secretary in-charge of bir Badal in his house. People have When Sukhbir Badal became the Bhatinda for eight years. In the last faith in the judiciary and let the law Deputy Chief Minister, all the Minis- Assembly elections, he was able to take its own course. ters from here went and complained. secure for the party eight of the nine But [Prakash Singh] Badal ensured seats. And as far as Preneet is con- So will it be right to assume that you that his son became what he is today. cerned, she has been MLA or MP have assumed supremacy in the High degree of nepotism. many top leaders have migrated to the openly revolted against the party and litical observers feel that in view of his Congress in recent times. Prominent even intended to contest the election disgruntled behaviour, most of the among them are Manjit Singh Calcut- from Patiala as an independent. But votes commanded by his father in Pa- ta, Rajbir Singh Padiala and Paramjit the Badal family managed to persuade tiala and Anandpur Sahib would now Singh Sarna. Further, events such as him to return to the party’s fold. His go to the Congress. the death of State Cooperation Minis- candidature would have made the vic- Although the BJP expressed its ter Captain Kanwaljit Singh on March tory of , the Congress displeasure at Sukhbir Badal’s gover- 28 in an accident and his son Jasjit candidate and Captain Amarinder nance a number of times, it has little Singh Bunny’s dissension and his sub- Singh’s wife, that much more easy, as choice in the State considering its de- sequent “homecoming” have had a se- he would have cut into SAD votes. clining presence. It is in this context vere impact on the party. Bunny Although Bunny has relented, po- that the SAD’s electoral campaign

FRONTLINE 21 MAY 8, 2009

Devinder Singh, even resigning from the party’s membership. Since then the party has adopted a defensive stand by reinforcing the image of Prime Minis- ter Manmohan Singh. Patiala royal Amarinder Singh, who is back in the reckoning after his list of candidates was preferred over Pradesh Congress Committee presi- dent Mohinder Singh Kay Pee’s, told Frontline, “The CBI clean chit to Tytler does not mean that the Supreme Court should accept it. Even in the Nithari killings case, the Supreme Court re- jected the CBI report on Moninder Singh Pandher. But the SAD must ex- plain why it raises the issue only dur- ing the time of elections. The SAD was a constituent of the ruling coalition at the Centre when Tytler was first given a clean chit in 1999.” The former Chief Minister was sidelined after the party’s defeat in the last Assembly elections and his subsequent expulsion from the Assembly on corruption charges. Prakash Singh Badal, however, said: “The real issue is not the with- drawal of the ticket but exemplary punishment to the guilty. If this deci- sion [to withdraw the ticket] indeed shows the Congress’ concern for Sikh sentiments, may one ask why the ticket was given to the guilty in the first place? Besides, they were not only al-

AKHILESH KUMAR lotted the Congress ticket continuous- ly since 1984 but even rewarded with SAD (BADAL) GENERAL secretary Sukhbir Singh Badal with his wife, Harsimrat Kaur Badal. plum portfolios in the Union Cabinet. Is anyone in the Congress apologising must be viewed. The shift to identity filed an affidavit in the Punjab and for that?” politics is perhaps the only way out for Haryana High Court in January defin- The Congress could benefit from the ruling party to battle the anti-in- ing a Sikh. The party’s silence over this the anti-incumbency sentiment, but it cumbency sentiment. The party knows issue was, perhaps, an indication that is sharply divided between the factions the political risk in this, but if anything it was trying to bring the discussion of led by Amarinder Singh and the Lead- goes wrong, it can be corrected in time a Sikh religious and political identity er of the Opposition in the Assembly, for the Assembly elections. into the public domain. Rajinder Kaur Bhattal. Their rivalry The new political trend was visible runs deep and was a troublesome fac- when, immediately after he was sworn CONGRESS GAINS GROUND tor when the party was in power. in on January 21, Sukhbir Badal an- Meanwhile, the Congress, which was In the last Assembly elections, the nounced that the SAD would continue on the back foot trying to defend Tytler Dera Sacha Sauda had ordered its 40 to fight for the implementation of the and Sajjan Kumar’s candidatures and lakh followers to vote for the Congress Anandpur Sahib Resolution. The the clean chit given to Tytler by the in view of the SAD-led violence against statement was, however, withdrawn CBI, has gained some ground follow- its followers. As a result, the SAD was by the Chief Minister. In a similar in- ing their withdrawal from contest. almost decimated in Malwa, despite cident, the SGPC, which runs all Sikh Throughout the controversy, the State winning in other parts of Punjab. The religious institutions in Punjab and is Congress was deeply divided over the party has adopted a softer stance on referred to as the Sikh parliament, issue, with some leaders, including Bir the Dera and has distanced itself from

22 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

the Sikh groups demanding the execu- slums every day and make promises of tion of the sect chief, Gurmeet Ram food security and regular water and Rahim Singh. Both the SAD and the power supply to houses there. Such Congress have been seeking the Baba’s measures ahead of the elections are audience these days. common in States where provision of basic amenities is an issue. Delhi’s pro- gress and development are generally measured by mega projects such as DELHI Metro Rail, air-conditioned buses, flyovers, Commonwealth Games and EDGE FOR introduction of compressed natural gas in the public transport system and CONGRESS not basic issues, despite the ever-in- By Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta creasing migrant population. SUDDENLY the “aam aadmi” has The credit should go to the Con- gained prominence in the run-up to gress for identifying the issues early. the Lok Sabha elections in the shy-of- Sheila Dikshit’s government in the Na- slums Delhi. The main contenders – tional Capital Region made an effort to the Congress and the BJP – are vying address systematically the housing with each other to address the issues and drinking water problems of these concerning the population living in colonies, where more than 50 per cent jhuggi-jhopri clusters, underdeve- of Delhi’s population lives. It was pri- loped colonies and the suburbs. Top marily for these reasons that the Con- leaders make it a point to visit the gress registered an emphatic victory in V.SUDERSHAN

KAPIL SIBAL, CONGRESS candidate for the Chandni Chowk parliamentary constituency, with Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit on his way to file his nomination, in New Delhi on April 16.

FRONTLINE 23 MAY 8, 2009 SHIV KUMAR PUSHPAKAR THE BJP’S SEVEN candidates for Delhi, (from left) B.L. Sharma Prem, Vijay Goel, Meera Kanwaria, Vijendra Gupta, Jagdish Mukhi, Chetan Chauhan and Ramesh Bidhuri, at the State BJP headquarters in New Delhi on March 28. the elections to the Delhi Assembly in tance over national issues. L.K. Ad- have lost the Jat votes too, though it December 2008. vani’s “strong leadership” qualities and succeeded in preventing Parvesh from Having failed to win the Assembly terrorism find mention in the BJP’s leaving the party. elections on the development plank, campaign, but soon the twitter is about Punjabis, Sikhs and government the Delhi BJP unit is once again trying basic issues. Except in a certain section employees form the other categories of to project itself as better equipped to of educated middle class, issues such Delhi’s population. Their voting pref- handle the common man’s problems. as terrorism and leadership of the erence is evenly divided between the Its president O.P. Kohli said: “De- country seem to have become non-is- two parties. The BJP knows that it spite the claims of the government that sues in Delhi. cannot get the Muslim and Jat votes in price rise has been curbed, prices are Delhi’s demographic structure in bulk. So the only option left is to ad- increasing every day. The government terms of class and caste and commu- dress seriously the economic problems claims that inflation has declined to nity composition explains this trend. of the majority of the population, an 0.26 per cent; yet according to govern- The population in rural areas, slums area ignored by the party all these ment data, the prices of food items and lesser developed colonies have be- years. have gone up by 17 per cent. Food- come a lot denser than in the posh and The BSP, the only party other than grains have become costlier by 9.61 per middle-class areas. Almost 60 per cent the Congress with considerable influ- cent, pulses by 8.46 per cent, fruits by of Delhi’s population consists of mem- ence in this section, is emerging as a 8.02 per cent and milk by 6.22 per bers of the Other Backward Classes significant player in Delhi politics. cent. Even the price of salt has in- (OBCs), the Scheduled Caste (S.C.), Continuing with its “social engineer- creased by 11 per cent. We would tell Poorvanchalis (migrants from Bihar, ing” model, the BSP has fielded three people of Delhi to vote against such a Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh) and Muslims, two Brahmins, one Gujjar government.” Gujjars. In the 2004 parliamentary and one S.C. candidate. Although the The BJP’s attitude has changed. It elections to the seven Delhi seats, the party got around 14 per cent of the is no longer relying on the middle-class Congress was elected in six where this votes in the Assembly elections, politi- voters, traders and shopkeepers (a section is predominant. The party lost cal experts say that its weak organisa- large chunk of this section voted for the posh South Delhi constituency to tional presence is a handicap in large the Congress in the Assembly elec- BJP’s Vijay Kumar Malhotra. The BJP constituencies. tions). The Congress, which has been is now trying to win the votes of the The delimitation process has upset ruling Delhi for the past 15 years, has underprivileged lot. the political equations and is respon- managed to create a substantial base Muslims and Jats together make sible for the kind of campaigning that among almost all the classes and com- up around 22 per cent of the popula- Delhi has been witnessing. While ear- munities owing to its strong organisa- tion. The Congress enjoys their sup- lier, Chandni Chowk was the smallest tional presence. port too. By denying former Chief constituency with 3.4 lakh voters and Another trend reflected in Delhi is Minister Sahib Singh Verma’s son Par- Outer Delhi was the largest, with 38 that local issues, more aptly bread- vesh Verma the ticket for the West lakh voters, the biggest constituency and-butter issues, have gained impor- Delhi constituency, the BJP seems to post-delimitation is North-West Delhi

24 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

with 17.90 lakh voters and the smallest get the Brahmin, S.C., OBC and Poor- is New Delhi with 13 lakh voters. Such vanchali votes. The nomination of was the change that even the sitting Mishra has helped the Congress in MPs of the Congress, who were once other parts of Delhi as it has managed again chosen to contest, had difficulty to appease the Poorvanchalis. in deciding the constituency. For in- Chandni Chowk has unpredictable stance, 92 per cent of the new South prospects. of the Congress Delhi constituency comprises parts of is contesting against Vijendra Gupta, the erstwhile rural Outer Delhi and the Chairman of the standing committee richer areas have become a part of the of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi. New Delhi constituency. Although the A large chunk of people have com- number of seats after the delimitation plained about Kapil Sibal neglecting has remained the same, the constitu- the constituency. The candidature of a encies have been altered considerably. Lok Janshakti Party MLA, Shoaib Iq- bal, who could cut into the Muslim THE SIKH FACTOR votes, is compounding Sibal’s prob- While the Congress has the advantage lem. of known faces contesting the elections In the North-East Delhi constitu- and a virtual absence of anti-incum- ency, the BJP candidate B.L. Sharma bency sentiment, the Sikh agitations, Prem, 80, is widely known to be a which resulted in withdrawal of the hard-core Hindutva ideologue and candidatures of Jagdish Tytler and Rashtriya Swayamsewak member. Sajjan Kumar from North-East Delhi Sharma was away from active politics and South Delhi, could affect the party for 12 years and was working in a Hin- a little. The issue not only brought dutva propaganda magazine in Hari- back the memories of the 1984 anti- dwar when he was recalled by the BJP. Sikh riots to the fore among a large He has been openly talking about his chunk of voters but also put away two “Akhand Bharat” vision of “a united leaders who had a considerable mass India which would include Pakistan, base. Afghanistan, Bangladesh”. His unique Delhi Congress president J.P. campaign methods, such as holding Agarwal said: “Both these leaders have drawing-room discussions, have made won many elections and as true Con- him popular in the area and in the gressmen would support and cam- media. paign for the party in true spirit. Both While the Congress enjoys an edge, of them have been getting Sikh votes the changed strategy of the BJP could for so many years.” The Congress high throw up some surprises. command has taken care to keep the two leaders in the loop so that they can continue to extend their support to the campaign. JAMMU & KASHMIR As nominations started on April 11, three constituencies geared up to NEW EQUATIONS throw some interesting battles and By Shujaat Bukhari in Srinagar possibilities. In the West Delhi constit- ELECTIONS to the six parliamen- uency, the Congress decided to field a tary constituencies in Jammu and Poorvanchali candidate and three- Kashmir have come close on the heels time MLA Mahabal Mishra to take on of the State Assembly elections in De- four-time MLA Jagdish Mukhi of the cember 2008. However, the campaign Union Minister Saifuddin Soz’s one BJP. About 45 per cent of the constitu- that is on is devoid of the enthusiasm seat brought down the A.B. Vajpayee ency’s population is made up of Punja- witnessed in the Assembly elections. government in 1998. bi Hindus, Sikhs and other urban The State goes to the polls in all the New political equations determine voters, who are expected to vote for five phases, beginning on April 16. Six the nature of the contests this time. Mukhi, a Punjabi himself. Mishra seats may not be a significant number, The National Conference (N.C.) and could throw a surprise if he manages to but given the coalition phenomenon in the Congress, which joined hands after get the Jat votes. Mishra is expected to the country even a single seat matters. the Assembly elections to form a go-

FRONTLINE 25 MAY 8, 2009 PTI AICC GENERAL SECRETARY Rahul Gandhi and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah at an election rally at Vijaypur, near Jammu, on April 14. vernment, have divided between them Assembly elections and took its tally in the Assembly elections is intact. the seats on the basis of their prospects from one to 11, has fielded Leela Karan The PDP, which did well in the in the Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh Sharma, who spearheaded the Amar- Muslim-dominated areas of Rajouri regions. While the Congress is contest- nath land agitation, in Jammu. and Poonch (which form part of the ing from Jammu, Udhampur and La- The Congress has fielded sitting Jammu parliamentary constituency) dakh, the N.C. took Baramulla, MPs Madan Lal Sharma for the Jam- in the Assembly elections, has fielded Srinagar and Anantnag in the Kash- mu seat and Lal Singh for the Ud- former member Trilok mir valley. hampur seat. Jammu is crucial for Singh Bajwa; it is eyeing the N.C’s It will be a triangular contest both the Congress and the BJP to en- Muslim votes in the region. In Ud- among the Congress, the People’s sure that the support base they gained hampur, the Congress has reasons to Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mo- hammad Sayeed, and the BJP in the Jammu region, whereas the N.C. and the PDP will fight it out in the Kashmir valley. The Congress will have a tough contest in the largely Buddhist-dom- inated Ladakh constituency against the Ladakh Union Territory Front (LUTF), which has once again fielded its sitting MP, Thupstan Chhewang. The Congress’ fortunes in Ladakh will depend upon the candidate it will nominate as also the support of the N.C. cadre from Kargil district, which is Muslim-dominated. Analysts point out that the Ladakh region has the tendency to get divided on communal lines. It remains to be seen to what extent the N.C. will be able to shift its votes in favour of the Congress with NISSAR AHMAD which it had a stiff contest in the As- PDP PRESIDENT MEHBOOBA Mufti with Peer Muhammad Hussain, the sembly elections. The BJP, which put party’s candidate in the Anantnag constituency, at an election rally in Trail in up a remarkable performance in the south Kashmir on April 14.

26 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

feel secure as most of the Assembly Shia vote in central Kashmir. Farooq seats in the constituency are in its kitty. Abdullah, who was elected to the Rajya The N.C. enjoys good support in the Sabha, is not keen to go to the Lok region. Moreover, former Congress Sabha. “It is certainly important for Chief Minister ’s the N.C. to win Srinagar, which has home district, Doda, is part of Ud- been represented by the Abdullah dy- hampur and this should help it have an nasty for decades,” said Tahir Mohiud- edge over the PDP. But there is a possi- din, Editor of the Urdu weekly bility that the PDP may be in a position Chattan. Chief Minister Omar Abdul- to woo the Muslim voters away in the lah was elected to the Lok Sabha from absence of an N.C. candidate. The can- Srinagar in 1998 and 2004. didates of the Congress and the BJP in Similarly, north Kashmir’s Bara- Udhampur, Lal Singh and Nirmal mulla constituency, with 15 Assembly Singh respectively, had lost the As- segments, is throwing up an interest- sembly elections. ing contest this time following Sajjad In the Kashmir valley too, the new Lone’s entry. The PDP has consider- alignments make the outcome uncer- ably improved its tally as well as vote tain. The N.C.-Congress alliance poses share in north Kashmir. It won five a challenge to the PDP. And with Peo- Assembly seats in 2008 and finished ple’s Conference chairman Sajjad Gani second in at least five other Assembly Lone deciding to fight the elections segments. With Congress support, the from the Baramulla constituency, the N.C. candidate, Shariefuddin Shariq, dynamics have changed further. may be able to get a handsome share of In south Kashmir’s PDP bastion of votes. Anantnag, the alliance has fielded a In Kupwara, where the N.C. relatively weak candidate, Mehboob bagged four out of the five Assembly Beg, who was defeated by Mufti Mo- seats, Sajjad Lone also wields consid- hammad Sayeed in the Anantnag As- erable influence as it was his father sembly constituency. He was recently Abdul Gani Lone’s bastion. Sajjad’s nominated for the Legislative Council. entry may bring down the N.C. vote The PDP has fielded former Minister share. The PDP has fielded Dillawar Peer Muhammad Hussain in the Mir, a former Minister. Anantnag parliamentary constituen- But all depends upon the voter tur- cy. N.C. insiders admit that it is diffi- nout. The United Jehad Council, an cult to take on the PDP in south amalgam of militant organisations, dates getting elected. The constituen- Kashmir. has called for a boycott of the elections, cies to watch out for are Jalore, Sikar, In central Kashmir’s Srinagar con- and a hardline faction of the All Parties Bharatpur, Bikaner and Kota; even stituency, the PDP has fielded the in- Hurriyat Conference, headed by Syed Jhalawar-Baran, from where Dush- fluential Shia spiritual leader Moulvi Ali Geelani, is vociferously supporting yant Singh, son of former Chief Minis- Iftikhar Ansari. This led to a rethink- the call. For this and other reasons, ter , is contesting ing in the N.C. camp, which asked its unlike in the Assembly elections, the could provide an interesting result. president himself to voter turnout may drop. One thing is clear: the Congress is contest. Former Chief Secretary not going to perform as well as the BJP Sheikh Ghulam Rasool’s name also fig- did in the 2004 elections when it won ured in the list, but many N.C. leaders 21 seats. In the December 2008 As- voiced their opposition to it and asked RAJASTHAN sembly elections, the Congress won the leadership to take Ansari’s candi- only 96 of the 200 seats and could not dature seriously. Following party pres- SURPRISES GALORE muster a simple majority on its own sure, the senior Abdullah announced By T.K. Rajalakshmi in Jaipur and Dausa even though it emerged the single lar- that he may contest himself, adding THE 25 Lok Sabha constituencies gest party. that Srinagar Mayor Salman Sagar in Rajasthan, which go to the polls on The stability of the State’s Con- would also file his nomination from May 7, will be more or less equally gress government was recently put to Srinagar and that the final decision shared by the ruling Congress and the the test when Kirori Lal Meena, a Min- would be taken ahead of the last date BJP. But a few surprises cannot be ister in the former BJP government for withdrawal of nominations. ruled out – that is, independents or and now an independent legislator, The PDP is banking on the sizable non-BJP and non-Congress candi- prevailed upon his wife, Golma Devi,

FRONTLINE 27 MAY 8, 2009 PTI RAJASTHAN CHIEF MINISTER Ashok Gehlot with , the Congress candidate for the Ajmer seat, at an election meeting on April 15. who was elected from the Mahwa As- distribution of the ticket for the As- ment, Kirori Singh Bainsla, the archi- sembly constituency, to quit the State sembly elections as well. The coup by tect of the 2007-08 Gujjar agitation Cabinet. His action was over the dis- the Congress, which left the BSP bereft which claimed around 70 lives, joined tribution of the ticket in eastern Rajas- of any representation in the Assembly, the BJP. While some quarters in the than, which is considered a fiefdom of could impact the prospects of the BSP Gujjar leadership, especially the All the Meena leader. candidates for the Lok Sabha elec- India Gujjar Mahasabha, have been “I alone can influence the outcome tions, especially in eastern Rajasthan. critical of his decision, others feel it in 13 constituencies. I am concerned In another surprising develop- was not an unexpected move. One of about the performance of the Congress the first things he said after joining the in the Lok Sabha elections. I do not BJP was that he would get the Gover- want the State government to fall but I nor’s assent for the Reservation Bill. won’t stand being humiliated,” he told Bainsla is expected to contest from the Frontline. Certain statements by Na- general seat, Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, mo Narayan Meena, Union Minister where he will face Namo Narayan of State for Environment and Forests, Meena of the Congress. made the situation worse. The move is meant to pacify Guj- Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, sens- jars, who hope that Bainsla will take ing an imminent withdrawal of sup- the community’s demand for Sched- port by as many as four legislators, all uled Tribe (S.T.) status forward. It also supposedly followers of K.L. Meena, conveys the impression that the BJP is roped in all the six BSP MLAs, who ready to make amends to the Gujjar promptly quit their party to join the community by nominating one of their Congress. The legislators said they own to a prestigious seat. In the De- were unhappy with the way the BSP PTI cember elections, the BJP fared well in leadership had distributed the ticket KIRORI SINGH BAINSLA, the Gujjar eastern Rajasthan, the hotbed of the for the Lok Sabha elections and alleged leader who is contesting on the BJP Gujjar agitation. that money had changed hands in the ticket. The BJP has renominated most of

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its sitting MPs. The old faces include have an edge over the Congress nomi- the Vanvasi Kalyan Parishad, a tribal Manvendra Singh from Barmer, nee, Urmila Jain, wife of Public Works outfit. BJP rule from 2003 to 2008 whose father Jaswant Singh, the Lead- Minister Pramod Jain who trounced was characterised by a spate of clashes er of the Opposition in the Rajya Sab- the BJP stalwart Raghuveer Singh between tribal people and the minor- ha, has decided to contest from the Kaushal in the Assembly elections. ities. Darjeeling parliamentary constituen- In the absence of a third front in Despite the absence of a cogent cy with the help of the Gorkha Jana- the State, the outcome may not be dif- third front here, it will be an interest- mukti Morcha. ferent from that of the ing battle as no party is taking victory The party has also fielded newcom- elections. The BSP would have had a for granted. Even before the electoral ers in some seats. For instance, the chance in Bharatpur had the exodus of lists were declared, Gehlot had candidates for Bharatpur and Banswa- party MLAs not taken place. launched his campaign blitzkrieg. Be- ra are relatively new to electoral poli- The CPI(M) has fielded its three ing in power has its advantages, but tics but are experienced Sangh MLAs in Sikar, Ganganagar and Bi- whether they will translate into a deci- activists. Ghanshyam Tiwari, former kaner. The candidate from Bikaner, sive mandate in favour of the Congress Education Minister and the BJP legis- Pawan Duggal, represents Anoopgarh will need to be seen. lator from Sanganer, is to contest from in the Assembly. Duggal had won with Jaipur. a handsome margin of 25,000 votes in Senior BJP leaders including State the Assembly round. The CPI is con- party president Om Prakash Mathur testing from two seats, Chittorgarh MADHYA PRADESH have been saying that there is a need and Udaipur Rural. Unlike the dom- MUSLIM FACTOR for “social engineering” given the new inant parties in the State and some situation after delimitation. The BJP others who are trying to get a foothold By Purnima S. Tripathi has not been able to keep dissent at bay on the basis of “social engineering”, the in Indore, Khandwa and Khargone either. Left parties do not bother about “caste THE BJP and the Congress are en- The Congress is in a position of calculations”. In fact, the CPI(M) man- gaged in a direct contest in the 16 con- relative advantage, being in power and aged to win the three Assembly seats, stituencies that go to the polls on April having secured a fractionally higher for the first time, on the basis of the 30 in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress vote percentage as compared with the movements and struggles it had orga- even appears to have a slight edge this BJP in the Assembly elections. Gehlot, nised. time in this region, unlike in the No- on his part, feels very much in charge There is growing voter disenchant- vember 2008 Assembly elections, fol- since most of his detractors within the ment with the mainstream political lowing the consolidation of Muslim party lost in the Assembly elections. parties, as is evident from their declin- votes. (The first phase of elections in For instance, had former Pradesh ing vote shares. There seems to be an the State for 13 seats is on April 23.) Congress chief Narayan Singh not lost undercurrent of anger towards them The fear of the BJP coming to power at out to Amra Ram of the CPI(M) in the among the numerically weaker and the Centre or simply “Advani phobia” Assembly elections, he would have dispersed castes. In 2008, as many as is the driving the Muslims to rally been the obvious choice for the Con- 25 candidates were elected to the Ra- around the Congress. gress in Sikar. As Amra Ram is very jasthan Assembly either as indepen- “In the Assembly elections, the much in the fray here, the Congress dents or as representatives of Muslim vote got divided. Some people had to look for another candidate. A non-Congress and non-BJP fronts. In voted for the BSP, some did not vote at triangular contest is likely here be- the 2003 Assembly elections, nearly 19 all and some took paltry amounts and tween three-time BJP MP Subhash such candidates were elected. What is kept away deliberately. This cost the Maharia, Amra Ram and the Congress interesting is that even though the Congress many seats,” says Ishrat Ali, nominee. Congress won this time, its vote share the Shahr Qazi of Indore, who wields a Congress loyalist Raghuveer Mee- was only marginally higher than what lot of influence in the region. na is contesting from Udaipur, which it was when the party lost to the BJP in The Congress was defeated with has been declared a reserved (S.T.) 2003. very slim margins in several constitu- constituency. The chairperson of the One of the major factors that encies. The voter turnout, which had National Commission for Women, Gi- helped the Congress form a govern- never been below 60 per cent in previ- rija Vyas, is the Congress candidate in ment in the State was its victory in the ous Assembly elections, was as low as Chittorgarh. In Ajmer, Sachin Pilot of reserved seats. In southern Rajasthan, 25-30 per cent in some constituencies. the Congress faces Kiran Maheshwari, including Udaipur, it had regained the “It is not because of any great love president of the BJP’s Mahila Morcha. S.T. and S.C. seats. The BJP was able to for the party. The Congress has be- Kiran Maheshwari hopes to cash in on sweep the 2003 Assembly elections trayed us, it has not stood by us. It has the “Vaish” or “Bania” population. At and the 2004 Lok Sabha polls partly done nothing substantial for us. It did Jhalawar-Baran, Dushyant Singh may because of the aggressive campaign by not provide even the minimum safety

FRONTLINE 29 MAY 8, 2009

when Bajrang Dal goons were com- Bajrang Dal to create trouble in the mitting atrocities, killing innocent area. In the past three months alone, Muslims, during the past five years of there were 11 attempts to trigger a the Shivraj Singh Chauhan govern- communal disturbance in Khandwa. ment. But there is no alternative and The efforts of the elders in the Muslim we are forced to vote once again for the community, especially religious lead- Congress. We don’t even have the op- ers such as the Shahr Qazi, helped de- tion of not voting this time because this feat them. On March 10, the remains will ensure a walkover for the BJP,” of a pig was thrown into the Khadag- says Riyaz Hussain, a former Congress pura mosque compound ahead of the MLA from Khandwa and an active Barawaft procession. On March 11, a party worker. dead pig was thrown into another Ahmad Patel, a Congress council- mosque. lor and Pradesh Congress Committee A sense of fear is palpable in delegate from Khandwa, who is also Khandwa. People avoid venturing out

the city Congress vice-president, A.M. FARUQUI after sunset. “The atmosphere is vitiat- agrees that Muslims are forced to vote SHIVRAJ SINGH CHAUHAN, ed,” says Imtiaz, a young fashion de- for the Congress because of the possi- Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister. signer who runs a boutique and also bility of an Advani-led government at teaches fashion designing at an insti- the Centre. The consolidation of Mus- ers. In 1989, during Barawafat, 26 tute. He used to hang out with friends lim votes, political observers say, will Muslims and one Hindu were killed in until late in the night but not any more. help the Congress improve its tally, a riot. Bala Beg, an independent candi- Interestingly, the BJP does not deny that is, if the organisation shows an date for the seat, got 89,000 Muslim this. “A little bit of tension is always interest in involving responsible mem- votes in the elections that year. Su- there, especially during festivals and bers of the community in the cam- mitra Mahajan of the BJP, a first-time elections. It is nothing uncommon,” paign. “But the organisation is winner, defeated Prakash Chandra says Sunil Jain, the BJP’s media in- absolutely disinterested. It has taken Sethi of the Congress, who was then a charge. He says unabashedly: “Here our votes for granted and does not even Union Minister. Since then she has only the HM [Hindu-Muslim] factor bother to ask for our votes. The Con- been winning from Indore. This time, works in the elections.” gress is the biggest anti-Muslim party, the Congress has fielded a novice, Sa- It is the same story in neighbouring but we are helpless as there is no al- tyanarayan Patel, against Sumitra Ma- Khargone, Dhar, Ujjain, Dewas, ternative,” says Salim Khan, a former hajan. His chances of winning are Mandsaur and Ratlam. How the Con- Congress leader in Khandwa. slim. The BSP has fielded Abdul Ra- gress will be able to capitalise on this “One thing is clear. We have to vote him Khan, who will only end up cut- situation is to be seen. Neutral observ- in order to defeat the BJP. If there is no ting into the Congress’ votes, once ers say that if the Congress tries sin- other candidate, I have told my people again making the BJP’s victory easy. cerely, it can win many seats in the to vote for the Congress, despite all our “Muslims were in two minds on region because some of its candidates grouses against the party,” says Syed whom to vote but not any more. Ad- are good. Ansar Ali, the Shahr Qazi of Khandwa. vani has changed all that,” says Ibra- Adding to the BJP’s worry is the Eighty per cent of the State’s Mus- him Qureshi, former Chairman of the resentment of the people displaced by lim population is concentrated in the Madhya Pradesh Minority Commis- the Omkareshwar, Indira Sagar and Indore division, which includes sion and at present chairman of the Sardar Sarovar projects across the Khandwa. “Muslims constitute 8 per MP Muslim Education Society. If the Narmada. Even Sumitra Mahajan cent of the [State’s] population and Congress is in a position to improve its concedes that this could affect the can influence the results in 103 As- tally in the State, the person to thank is BJP’s prospects to some extent. sembly seats, which means roughly 10 Advani. In the 2004 elections, the BJP Also going to the polls on April 30 Lok Sabha seats. Since their vote got won 25 of the 29 seats with 48.13 per are the seats in the Gwalior division, split because of the community’s dis- cent of the votes. The Congress won which is considered a Congress strong- enchantment with the Congress, the four seats with a vote share of 34.07 hold because of the influence of the BJP was able to return to power in the per cent. Scindia family. The party is likely to State,” says Ishrat Ali. Significantly enough, the BJP has win at least four seats here. However, The Indore Lok Sabha seat, which realised that polarisation of the electo- overall, the BJP appears far ahead be- was held by the Congress until 1989, rate along Hindu-Muslim lines will cause of the performance record of the shows how the BJP gained because of eventually benefit the party. Hence, Shivraj Singh Chauhan government. the division of Muslim votes. The con- there seems to be a concerted effort by Even staunch BJP opponents are un- stituency has over 1.8 lakh Muslim vot- Sangh Parivar affiliates such as the able to wish this factor away. २

30 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Cover Story Testing ground

The elections in West Bengal, Sikkim and the seven north-eastern States have become crucial in the final power game.

New political alignments may throw up surprises in West Bengal, but the CPI(M) is confident of winning comfortably. A third force has made the mandate unpredictable in Assam. It is advantage SDF in the Sikkim Assembly elections. WEST BENGAL TOUGH FIGHT By Suhrid Sankar Chattopadhyay in Kolkata THE three-phase Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal, to be held on April 30, May 7 and May 13, have taken on the appearance of a dress rehearsal for the 2011 Assembly elections, for local and regional issues have largely eclipsed national issues. The Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front swept the 2004 elections by winning 35 of the 42 parliamentary seats, while the Trinamool Congress and the Congress had to be satisfied with one and six seats respectively. But this time round, the Congress-Trinamool combine, as CPI(M) patriarch and former Chief Minister of West Bengal Jyoti Basu himself has ad- mitted, will make things tough for the Left. At a meet-the-press event in Kolkata on April 14, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat said: “My party’s assessment is that we will have a tough battle in West Bengal and one of the main factors is the Congress- Trinamool alliance. But we have faced such united opposition in the past and our party has taken that into account.” He said he expected the party to win “a majority of the seats”. After much wrangling over seats, the Congress and the Trinamool reached an understanding on March 12 to face the polls together, with the Trina- DIPTENDU DUTTA\AFP mool fielding 27 candidates and the Congress 14. BUDDHADEB BHATTACHARJEE AT a CPI(M) One seat has been set aside for the Socialist Unity election rally in Siliguri on March 28.

FRONTLINE 31 MAY 8, 2009

Centre of India (SUCI), an ally of the rural masses will perceive her as a Trinamool. leader who has come to protect them The alliance did not come about from the perils of land acquisition, easily as old wounds, inflicted by the even if it means losing some base two foes-turned-friends on each other, among the urban middle class. In took time to heal despite desperate ef- 2008, her persistent agitation suc- forts by the top leaders on both sides. ceeded in driving out the prestigious The animosity between the two par- Nano car project of Tata Motors from ities was such that until recently Trina- Singur in Hooghly district – a project mool supremo Mamata Banerjee that was expected to turn around the referred to the West Bengal Congress industry-starved economy of West unit as the “B team” of the CPI(M). Bengal. It ultimately went to Gujarat. Even on the issue of land acquisition Mamata’s confidence got a further for industrial purposes – the bedrock boost from the results of the panchayat of Mamata’s latest political strategy – elections in 2008, when spontaneous the two parties do not see eye to eye. informal local alliances between the Moreover, a sizable section of Con- Congress and the Trinamool managed gress workers are disgruntled that the to dent the Left’s rural vote bank sig- seats they consider “winnable” have nificantly in some districts. The Trina- been conceded to the Trinamool, re- mool also won convincingly in both ducing the party to a junior partner in Nandigram and Singur, and in Janu- the alliance. ary 2009, it won the Nandigram As- Dismissing the electoral pact of the sembly seat in a byelection. two opposition parties, Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee said, “Such CONTRAST IN CAMPAIGNS unprincipled alliances against the Left Despite the setback they suffered in have taken place before also. But ulti- the elections to the local bodies, the mately, the mandate of the people has Left parties’ hold over rural Bengal always prevailed.” cannot be underestimated. The Trina- The Left Front is contesting all the mool’s campaign against the CPI(M)’s 42 seats, with 18 new faces and two “misrule” and its pro-farmer, anti-land women in the fray. The CPI(M) has acquisition rhetoric, as embodied in fielded its candidates in 32 seats, the the slogan “Ma, Mati, Manush” (moth- Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) in er, land, man), are not likely to cut ice four and the All India Forward Bloc everywhere. Ratan Rai, a farmer of and the Communist Party of India Bankura district’s Bhairavpur village, (CPI) in three each. which falls in the Bishnupur constitu- ency, told Frontline: “I don’t want to NANDIGRAM PLATFORM buy a plough for my children. I have It is significant that Mamata kick- hopes for a better future for them and started her campaign not from her that can only come through industri- Kolkata South constituency but from es.” Nandigram in East Medinipur district. Basudev Ray, another farmer from Nandigram saw one of the bloo- the same village, said: “We will vote for diest turf wars in the State’s recent which 14 villagers were killed in police the third alternative, as both the Con- history, and it was initiated by the Tri- firing on March 14, 2007, became the gress and the Bharatiya Janata Party namool in 2007 over rumours of land turning point in Mamata’s political ca- are the same in their anti-farmer pol- acquisition for a proposed chemical reer. She said: “It is Nandigram that icies, and on top of that, the BJP has hub. The Trinamool’s showing in the has opened the door for change in been trying to divide the country on previous parliamentary elections was West Bengal and it will continue to do religious grounds.” Interestingly, disastrous: only Mamata got elected. so.” She has promised to carry an urn Bhairavpur has an all-Hindu popula- This was followed by a dismal perfor- containing what she calls the “holy tion, and so the views expressed by the mance in the Assembly elections in earth” of Nandigram across the State farmers here speak of the fine balance 2006, with the party winning only 29 during her poll campaign. the CPI(M) has struck between local of the 294 seats as against 60 in 2001. Mamata’s anti-industry stand and national issues in its campaigns The Nandigram agitation, during probably stems from the belief that the there.

32 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 ARUNANGSU ROY CHOWDHURY TRINAMOOL CONGRESS LEADER Mamata Banerjee addressing a gathering at Nandigram.

Shiuli Saha is the Trinamool’s can- out the year, the Congress sleeps ex- witnessed a secessionist movement of didate for the Bishnupur seat. Her cept during election time.” varying degree, will go to the polls. claim to fame: she hails from Nan- According to an informed CPI(M) The Gorkha Janamukti Morcha digram. source, voters in the 18-35 age group (GJM) has been demanding a separate may vote decisively for the Left. “They Gorkhaland comprising not only the ANTI-INCUMBENCY constitute about 31 per cent of the elec- Darjeeling hills but also parts of the NOT A FACTOR torate [of over 5.2 crore]. They want contiguous areas in the Terai and the The anti-incumbency wave that the employment and the opposition has Dooars in the plains. In its attempt to opposition parties are banking upon totally overlooked their concerns.” All enlist the support of a national party, may not be as widespread as they things considered, the worst result for the GJM has fielded BJP stalwart and would like it to be. Kanai Bagdi, a land- the Left, he said, could be 28 seats, former External Affairs Minister Jas- less labourer of Harialgara village in seven less than its 2004 tally. want Singh in Darjeeling. With the the Bankura constituency, said, “The If the opposition is banking on the GJM backing it, the BJP, which hardly CPI(M) is always there for our needs – reported alienation of the minority has any presence in the State, is confi- blankets in winter, assistance when community from the Left, it may be dent of winning the seat. Karat said the there is no work. I don’t care who proved wrong, as time and again the BJP’s decision was “opportunistic and comes at the Centre as long as the minority voter has shown that he is unprincipled” and something they will CPI(M) is here.” In fact, a local Con- capable of voting on ideological and “regret”. The voters in the plains may gress leader in Jalpaiguri in north Ben- political lines rather than on commu- turn to the CPI(M) to prevent a divi- gal admitted: “The difference between nal ones. sion of the State. the Congress and the CPI(M) here is In the first phase of the elections The Kamtapur and the Greater that while the CPI(M) works through- for 14 seats, four regions, each having Coochbehar movements, which began

FRONTLINE 33 MAY 8, 2009

then in Lalgarh, where Mamata shared the dais with Mahato, will not go down well with a large section of the voters in the region, who, fearing an- other partition of Bengal, may just vote against her. Amiya Patra, CPI(M) district sec- retary of Bankura, told Frontline that “80 per cent of the people who voted against us in the panchayat polls have returned to our fold after the opposi- tion’s support to the secessionist movement in Lalgarh”.

NORTH-EASTERN STATES ALLIANCES ON TEST By Sushanta Talukdar in Guwahati ASSAM: Going by the campaign issues, electioneering for the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam this time is not much different from that in 2004. In- filtration, insurgency, law and order, ethnic identity and development are the dominant electoral issues this time too. A total of 158 candidates are in the fray for the elections scheduled for April 16 and 23. In 2004, the results favoured the Congress. It won nine seats, while the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the BJP won two each. One seat went to

PTI the All Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU)- PRANAB MUKHERJEE, AFTER filing his nomination papers for the Jangipur backed independent candidate, who parliamentary constituency in Behrampore. later joined the Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF), a partner in the ruling mainly as a result of widespread un- The Chief Electoral Officer of the coalition. The Congress secured 35.07 employment and underdevelopment, State, Debasish Sen, has been holding per cent of the votes, the BJP 22.94 per are not as serious as the Gorkhaland talks with the PCPA chief, Chhatrad- cent and the AGP 19.25 per cent. movement. har Mahato, in Kolkata to make the This round of elections will provide The Maoist movement in the tribal latter see reason and allow the police to the ground to test whether the new belts is, however, more serious al- be present on polling day. Mahato in- political alignments in the State will though localised in nature. In Lalgarh sists that civil society and leading in- work. The AGP and the BJP struck a in West Medinipur district, the tellectuals can substitute the police in seat-sharing deal in order to prevent a Maoist-backed People’s Committee overseeing the conduct of the split in their votes. This, they hope, will against Police Atrocity (PCPA) has elections. ensure the victory of their common been trying to create a “liberated zone” The Aditya faction of the Jhark- candidates. With an eye on the 2011 on the lines of Nandigram by denying hand Party, which supports the Lal- Assembly polls, the BJP has made a entry to the police. Last November an garh movement, has demanded that calculated bid to expand its base in the attempt was made on the life of the the tribal belts of Bankura, Purulia and State, particularly in the Brahmaputra Chief Minister at Salboni in the dis- West Medinipur districts be merged valley, by persuading the regional par- trict. The PCPA even sought to cut off with Jharkhand. ty to concede eight seats, of which five the neighbouring districts of Bankura The Trinamool’s association with are from the valley. The alliance, how- and Purulia from the rest of the State. the Maoists, first in Nandigram and ever, suffered a jolt when the nomi-

34 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 RITU RAJ KONWAR GUJARAT CHIEF MINISTER and senior BJP leader with AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary (left) and Romen Deka, BJP candidate for the Mangaldai constituency, at a rally in Rangia, near Guwahati on April 11. nation of the BJP candidate for the of the two parties. The third force rep- Dhubri constituency, Nilimoy Pradha- resented by the CPI(M), the CPI, the ni, was rejected on the grounds that he Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the had not filled up the mandatory A and Assam United Democratic Front B forms along with his nomination (AUDF) and the Bodoland People’s papers. Progressive Front (BPPF) had evoked However, a number of grassroots- considerable response among those level leaders and workers of the AGP voters who were disenchanted with the are wary of this tie-up. They fear that a ruling Congress-BPF coalition and substantial portion of their traditional who were not willing to go along with support base may permanently shift to the AGP-BJP combine. However, the the BJP and this will weaken the party unilateral declaration of candidatures ahead of the Assembly polls. Owing to by the AUDF before the finalisation of such reservations among grassroots the seat-sharing deal hampered the workers, the transfer of votes between prospects of the third front in a num- the two parties may not take place on ber of seats. The CPI(M) and the expected lines. AUDF failed to reach a seat-sharing There was also some confusion agreement. among the rank and file of the two AUDF president and perfume mo- parties regarding the actual nature of gul Badruddin Ajmal unilaterally de- the alliance. AGP chief Chandra Mo- clared his candidature from Silchar in han Patowary had to issue a clarifica- the Barak valley where the CPI(M) has tion that the tie-up was limited to a strong support base. The AUDF also seat-sharing and that his party had not put up a candidate for the Barpeta joined the BJP-led National Demo- seat, which was won twice by the CPI cratic Alliance (NDA) as was claimed (M); for Tezpur, the two parties fielded by some senior BJP leaders. However, ed in the joint rallies attended by the their own candidates. In Guwahati, he maintained that the BJP would be alliance’s star campaigners, the BJP’s too, despite a formal agreement to the senior partner in the Lok Sabha prime ministerial candidate L.K. Ad- leave the seat to the NCP, the AUDF elections and that the roles would be vani and Gujarat Chief Minister Na- hurriedly decided to put up its own reversed in the Assembly polls. The rendra Modi. The rallies failed to candidate before the close of nomi- confusion at the grassroots was reflect- attract an equal number of supporters nations.

FRONTLINE 35 MAY 8, 2009

CONGRESS SUPPORTERS TAKE out a motorcycle rally in Boko village in Kamrup district of Assam on March 30.

However, despite the internal con- gin in the State – 4,84,129 votes – in for Congress heavyweight and Union tradictions and the confusion over the 2004 Lok Sabha election. Minister for Heavy Industries Sontosh seat-sharing, the emergence of the If the 2004 Lok Sabha election Mohan Dev. The Congress has put up third force has made the contests tri- helped Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to candidates for 13 seats, leaving the angular and the mandate unpredict- consolidate his position within the Kokrajhar (Scheduled Tribe) seat to its able. party and retain the hot seat in Dispur ally, the BPF. However, the BPF is The decision of the BPPF to leave for a second consecutive term in the engaged in a “friendly contest” with its the BJP-AGP bandwagon and join the 2006 Assembly elections, the 2009 coalition partner in Mangaldoi. third force came as a boost to the ef- elections will be a test for the popular- To counter the AGP-BJP com- forts of the Left parties to unite the ity and performance of his govern- bine’s high-profile campaign involving non-Congress, non-BJP parties on a ment. The ruling party campaigned on leaders such as Advani, the Congress common platform. This is likely to in- the plank of development. brought party president Sonia Gandhi fluence the poll outcome in the Bodo- However, Gogoi faces an uphill and External Affairs Minister Pranab dominated areas of lower and central task because of the AUDF factor. The Mukherjee. Assam. It has brightened the poll pro- AUDF made its debut in State politics The campaign of the Left parties spects of the BPPF candidate for the in 2006 following the scrapping of the and their allies focussed on the adverse Kokrajhar constituency, Urkhao Gwra Illegal Migrants (Determination by impact of the economic policies of the Brahma. Brahma, who led the revived Tribunals) Act by the Supreme Court. Congress-led Union government, Bodo statehood movement as the pres- It caused an erosion of the Congress’ while the Congress and the AGP-BJP ident of the influential ABSU, is put- Muslim votes in the 2006 Assembly combine were engaged in mudsling- ting up a tough fight against the elections, and the AUDF won as many ing. The Congress accused the AGP- Congress-BPF candidate and sitting as 10 seats in the 126-member As- BJP combine of reaching a tacit un- BPF MP Sansuma Khunggur Bwis- sembly and prevented the Congress derstanding with the AUDF. muthiary, who is seeking a fourth con- from gaining a majority. There has been a spurt in extremist secutive term. Bwismuthiary was Badruddin Ajmal’s candidature violence in the run-up to the elections. credited with the highest victory mar- will make the contest for Silchar tough A series of fatal bomb blasts rocked

36 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

tered this by alleging that the AGP, Nagaland and Mizoram have one each. which was in power for two terms in Barring Tripura where the ruling CPI the State, and the BJP, which headed (M)-led Left Front campaigned for an an earlier government at the Centre, alternative government of left, demo- did nothing to detect and deport for- cratic and secular parties at the Centre, eigners and seal the border. electioneering in the other five States centred around unresolved and sensi- SMALL BUT VITAL tive local political issues. During the days of single-party rule at MANIPUR: The State’s territorial the Centre, parliamentary elections in integrity has topped the campaign is- the smaller north-eastern States of sues. All India Congress Committee Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Mizo- general secretary Rahul Gandhi prom- ram, Arunachal Pradesh and Megha- ised, at an election rally in Chura- laya did not interest the mainstream chandpur, that the Congress would not parties much; the small number of compromise on the issue of protecting seats from these States was not so im- Manipur’s territorial integrity. How- portant for them to reach the magic ever, the party had stated in its election number required to form the govern- manifesto that it supported the inte- ment. But in today’s era of coalition gration of the Naga-inhabited areas of politics, when every single seat mat- Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pra- ters, the six States have become crucial desh. in the final power game. The contest for the Inner Manipur Of these States, which go to the constituency was multi-cornered. The polls on April 16 and 23, Tripura, Congress nominated its sitting MP , Arunachal Pradesh and Thockchom Meinya, while the Mani- Manipur have two seats each, while pur People’s Party (MPP) fielded for- RITU RAJ KONWAR

Guwahati and a few other places. At- tacks on security forces and railway property by the militant outfits Dima Halam Daogah (Jewel Gorlossa fac- tion) in North Cachar Hills district and by the Karbi Longri and N.C. Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) in Karbi Anglong district were pointers to a vio- lent round of elections in the Autono- mous District (S.T.) constituency. The run-up to the polls also witnessed vio- lent attacks between the supporters of two rival candidates in Kokrajhar con- stituency. The incidents provided the opposition parties ample opportuni- ties to attack the State government over the deteriorating law and order situation. The AGP and the BJP made the infiltration from across the porous In- dia-Bangladesh border a major elec- tion issue. They pointed out that the Congress had not made any mention of the issue, which posed a great danger PTI to Assam, in its national manifesto. NCP LEADER P.A. Sangma with his daughter and MP Agatha Sangma, who The Congress and the third force coun- is contesting from the Tura constituency of Meghalaya.

FRONTLINE 37 MAY 8, 2009 PTI SUPPORTERS ACCOMPANY KHAGEN Das, the CPI(M) candidate for the West Tripura constituency, when he went to file his nomination papers on March 29. mer Union Minister Thounaojam supporting the integration of Naga ar- She is pitted against former Deputy Chaoba Singh. Former Manipur Chief eas. The party said it would continue to Chief Minister Deborah Marak of the Minister Wahengbam Nipamacha work for an acceptable and honour- Congress. Agatha Sangma, 28, became Singh and Dr. Moirangthem Nara are able solution to the Naga political the youngest member in the 14th Lok the candidates for the BJP and the CPI problem. Sabha when she made her political de- respectively. Altogether three candidates are in but by winning the May 2008 byelec- Manipur Chief Minister Okram the fray in Nagaland – retired bureau- tion from the constituency after it was Ibobi Singh and other Congress lead- crat C.M. Chang of the NPF, Congress vacated by her father. Sangma, who ers are confident that Meinya will re- veteran and former parliamentarian had won the seat nine times, decided tain the seat as 19 of the 32 Assembly K. Asungba Sangtam, and All India to return to State politics last year. segments in this Lok Sabha constitu- Trinamool Congress candidate Dr. For the Shillong constituency, Vin- ency have Congress representatives. Rialthung Odyuo. In 2004, the seat cent H. Pala of the Congress was The sitting MP of the Outer Mani- went to the DAN. locked in a three-cornered contest pur constituency, Mani Charenamei, is TRIPURA: That the ruling CPI with United Democratic Party (UDP) contesting as the candidate of a new (M) will retain the two Lok Sabha seats candidate John Flimore Kharsiing and political platform, the People’s Demo- in Tripura is a foregone conclusion. Hill State People’s Democratic Party cratic Alliance (PDA), this time. The State Chief Minister Manik Sarkar, at (HSPDP) candidate P.B. Basaiaw- PDA was floated by the Naga legisla- his election rallies, urged voters to en- moit. Tribal Welfare Minister in the tors of Manipur. He is locked in a four- sure the victory of two sitting MPs – Manmohan Singh government Paty cornered contest with D. Loli Adanee Khagen Das and Bajuban Riyan – with Ripple Kyndiah won the seat on the of the BJP, L.B. Sona of the Nationalist record margins. Sarkar and other lead- Congress ticket in 2004. Congress Party (NCP) and Thangso ers of the ruling Left Front told voters At her election rally in Shillong Baite of the Congress. in the State that because of the strong amidst a bandh call by the militant NAGALAND: In Nagaland, the presence of Left parties in the outgoing outfit Hynniewtrep National Libera- Naga political problem and the inte- 14th Lok Sabha, many “anti-people” tion Council (HNLC), Sonia Gandhi gration of the Naga-inhabited areas of policies of the Congress-led United urged Meghalaya voters to reject certain neighbouring States to create Progressive Alliance government at smaller parties. “Smaller parties have ‘Greater Nagaland’ dominated the the Centre could be resisted. They ap- narrow and divisive agendas. They campaign for the Nagaland parlia- pealed to the voters to respond posi- shift loyalties. They have no regard for mentary seat and also the byelections tively to the formation of a the overall development of Meghalaya to four Assembly seats. non-Congress, non-BJP government and the nation as a whole,” she said. The ruling Nagaland People’s at the Centre by the Third Front. The UDP made the imposition of Pres- Front (NPF)-led Democratic Alliance MEGHALAYA: In the Tura con- ident’s Rule the main poll plank to of Nagaland (DAN) tried to woo voters stituency of Meghalaya, which is under counter the Congress campaign; it told by projecting the Congress dilemma President’s Rule, sitting MP Agatha K. voters that the Congress did not want on the issue. The Congress, on its part, Sangma of the NCP, the daughter of regional parties to rule the State. told voters that it was during Congress former Lok Sabha Speaker Purno A. ARUNACHAL PRADESH: In rule that the Nagaland Assembly had Sangma, was seen putting maximum Arunachal Pradesh, where inaccessi- twice passed unanimous resolutions efforts to continue the Sangma legacy. bility poses tough challenges for poli-

38 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

ticians as well as polling teams in reac- the SDF’s results,” a shopkeeper in hing out to voters, the two sitting BJP Gangtok told Frontline. MPs, Khiren Rijuju from Arunachal Chamling has dropped 20 sitting West and Tapir Gao from Arunachal Members of the Legislative Assembly, East, face tough opponents. Rijuju is including 10 Ministers in his 12-mem- locked in a direct contest with Takam ber Cabinet, in order to induct new Sanjoy of the Congress, a former presi- faces and also stem any anti-incum- dent of the influential All Arunachal bency factor. Although the reason he Pradesh Students Union (AAPSU) gave for “resting” them was that they and a former Education Minister. prepare themselves to provide an “al- MIZORAM: After scripting histo- ternative” to him, Chamling’s political ry in the recent Assembly polls in Miz- adviser B.B. Gooroong said the Chief oram by securing a four-fifths Minister wanted “a thorough change majority, the Congress is confident of as per the wishes of the people, and this winning the lone Lok Sabha seat from way the party will also be able to tackle the State with a huge margin. It has anti-incumbency feelings”. Cham- fielded C.L. Ruala, while the opposi- ling’s decision has not caused dissi- tion Mizo National Front (MNF) and dence in the ranks. In fact, the MLAs Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC) who were dropped from the list passed have backed an independent candi- a resolution expressing their support date, Dr. H. Lallungmuana, since the to the Chief Minister’s decision. sitting MP, Vanlalzawma of the MNF, Even the sitting Member of Parlia- decided not to contest. ment, Nakul Das Rai, for the lone Sik- kim Lok Sabha seat had to make way for the younger Prem Das Rai. In the last election, Nakul Das Rai won by a SIKKIM margin of over 1.2 lakh votes. The SDF is expected to win the seat again, but SMOOTH SAILING political observers feel the Congress’ By Suhrid Sankar Chattopadhyay K.N. Upreti, who was a Minister in the in Gangtok Bhandari government, will make the AS the tiny Himalayan State of Sik- contest a tough one. “Upreti is a well- kim prepares for simultaneous elec- known and respected leader, who tions to the Assembly and Lok Sabha many feel is just in the wrong party. on April 30, the advantage clearly lies Sikkim, while Bhandari contests from Rai, on the other hand is young and with the ruling Sikkim Democratic Khamdong-Singtan in East Sikkim well educated, but he is an absolute Front (SDF). As in 2004, its main and Chakung-Soreng in West Sikkim. newcomer in politics. Most people challenger will be the Congress. The However, in spite of the impressive don’t even know about him,” a political SDF swept the polls in the last elec- track record of development work un- source in Sikkim said. As before, Sik- tions by winning 31 of the 32 Assembly dertaken by the SDF government over kim will be joining any alliance that seats. The Congress won the lone the past 15 years, traces of anti-incum- forms the government at the Centre. Sangha seat reserved for the monks bency feelings are surfacing although “We are dependent on the Centre for and nuns of Sikkim’s monasteries. they may not be strong enough to top- our development and for that purpose A unique feature of Sikkim’s poli- ple the government. we always join the alliance in power,” tics is that it is dominated by individu- “Fifteen years is a long time. Even Gooroong said. al leaders rather than political parties. the Bhandari government changed af- The two main contenders for power ter 15 years,” Swapan Lepcha, a tour ATTEMPTS AT ALLIANCES since 1994 have been the present Chief operator on the outskirts of Gangtok, The opposition parties have realised Minister and president of the SDF Pa- told Frontline. He was not the only one that they can take on the SDF only if wan Chamling and former Chief Min- to voice such an opinion, but this was they put up a united front. The first ister and Sikkim Pradesh Congress no reflection on Chamling’s perfor- initiative in this regard was taken by Committee president Nar Bahadur mance. “Chamling has done a lot for the State unit of the CPI(M), which Bhandari. the State – beautified Gangtok, made tried to set up a United Democratic Chamling contests from the Pok- Sikkim a tourist hub, and so on – but Front comprising the Congress, the lok-Kamrang and Namchi-Singhith- some of his Ministers have not been BJP, the Sikkim Gorkha Prajatantrik ang Assembly constituencies in South performing well, and that might affect Party and the Sikkim Himali Rajya

FRONTLINE 39 MAY 8, 2009

party rather than a regional one is at the helm of affairs. But traditionally that has not been the way in Sikkim politics.

THRUST ON DEVELOPMENT The main thrust of the SDF’s cam- paign has been development. “We have promised to banish poverty in all its manifestations from Sikkim by 2015 and make the people of the State com- pletely self-reliant,” Gooroong said. Around 70 per cent of the State budget is earmarked for rural development. The net State domestic product rose

SUSHANTA PATRONOBISH from Rs.496 crore in 1995 to Rs.1,730 CHIEF MINISTER PAWAN Chamling at a public meeting at Rhenock in East crore in 2007. The tourism industry Sikkim district on April 14. has thrived, generating substantial revenue and employment. Parishad (SHRP). However, this alli- Lepchas (around 20 per cent), and The opposition’s campaign mostly ance fell through as the central leader- others, mostly traders and profession- centres around corruption charges ship of the national parties, with the als. More than 70 per cent of the Nepa- against the government, populist exception of the BJP, rejected the pro- lis belong to the Other Backward promises, and the decision of the Cen- posal. “Had this alliance actually taken Classes (OBC), and their unwavering tral government to exempt all incomes place it would have worried us, but it is loyalty lies with Chamling, who him- of Sikkim Subject Certificate cardhol- most unlikely that it would have been self belongs to an OBC community. ders from the purview of direct taxes. strong enough to defeat us,” a source in The upper-class Nepalis constitute the SDF told Frontline. Bhandari’s vote bank. In the 2004 DZONGU HYDEL PROJECTS The Congress tried to have an alli- elections, the SDF got around 76 per The other issue that will be a key factor ance with the SHRP, arguably the cent of the total votes, while the Con- in the elections is the proposed hydel strongest among the regional opposi- gress could manage only 20 per cent, power projects in the Dzongu region of tion parties, but the proposal foun- and that too mainly owing to Bhanda- North Sikkim. These projects are ex- dered on the issue of seat sharing. The ri’s defection to the party. In 1999, the pected to generate 5,000 MW of pow- only alliance that seems to have stuck Sikkim Sangram Parishad (SSP), er by 2015. is the one between the Sikkim Nation- which was then led by Bhandari, won The region falls under the protect- al People’s Party and the Sikkim Ja- seven seats in the Assembly. ed area of the Lepcha community, who nekta, called the United Sikkimese fear demographic changes if the pro- Alliance. However, these two parties LIMBOO AND TAMANG jects are allowed to come up. For over a are not big players in the State’s poli- In 2003, the Limboo and Tamang year now, the people of the region have tics. They have invited other parties to communities, which constitute over 10 been staging relay hunger-strikes join them, but as of April 14 no party per cent of the Nepali community and against the project. These develop- has shown any interest. play a decisive role in five Assembly ments will certainly have their impact The disadvantage of the opposition seats, were included in the list of on the results in three Assembly seats parties is that they are mostly Gang- Scheduled Tribes. Since then the SDF that fall in North Sikkim. The Con- tok-based, have hardly any grassroots government has canvassed in vain for gress has promised to scuttle the pro- support, and generally surface only reservation of seats for these two com- ject if elected to power. during election time. The SDF is a munities. The Congress hopes to take The anti-incumbency factor that well-organised, cadre-based party, advantage of the situation by promis- the Congress is pinning its hopes on which keeps in touch with the masses ing to reserve seats for the two com- could cost the SDF a few seats but is throughout the year. Of the three lakh munities. “The Limboo and Tamang not strong enough to defeat the party. voters in Sikkim, 70 per cent belong to communities have been totally de- The SDF’s inherent strengths – dis- rural areas, and they are the SDF’s prived of their political rights. The ciplined workers, organisational excel- backbone. Chamling government has badly let lence and a well-oiled party machinery The Sikkimese population is divid- them down,” Bhandari told Frontline. – along with an impressive perfor- ed into three ethnic groups – the Nepa- He feels that it would be to the benefit mance record will most likely see it lis (70 per cent), the Bhutias and the of the people of Sikkim if a national through for a fourth term in power. २

40 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Column Fatal attraction There is evidence of growing fragility in India’s financial sector as a result of its transformation to approximate the Anglo-Saxon model.

HE official Committee on noring the report. However, since the Financial Sector Assess- assessment is a country exercise ment, chaired by Reserve owned by national regulatory author- Bank of India Deputy Gov- ities even if inspired by the IMF and ernor Rakesh Mohan, re- the World Bank, there could be nu- Tleased its report at the end of March. ances that can contribute to a better However, its output, which consists of understanding of the effects of finan- six volumes (an executive summary, an cial liberalisation and globalisation. overview report, and reports of the ad- visory panels on Financial Stability As- IN FAVOUR OF GLOBAL FIRMS sessment and Stress Testing, Financial In the case of this mammoth exercise Regulation and Supervision, Institu- undertaken by India, the report exudes tions and Market Structure, and confidence that the Indian financial Transparency Standards) running in- system is stable and resilient. But lurk- to more than 2,500 pages, has not re- ing beneath this confidence is evidence ceived the attention that the effort of growing fragility in the financial sec- seems to warrant. Possibly, its sheer Economic tor as a result of its transformation to bulk has deterred many an analyst. approximate the Anglo-Saxon model. There could, however, be another Perspectives It is now well accepted that countries reason. The assessment is a part of the C.P. CHANDRASEKHAR seeking to attract capital chose to lib- Financial Sector Assessment Pro- eralise their financial policies in two gramme (FSAP) which, as the pream- ways. They eased entry provisions with ble to the Executive Summary notes, is sess “the status and implementation of respect to foreign institutions that are a joint initiative of the International various international financial stan- the “carriers” of that capital, as it were. Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World dards and codes in the regulation and They relaxed regulations relating to Bank that began in 1999. That pro- supervision of institutions and mar- the markets, institutions and instru- gramme ostensibly “attempts to assess kets”, as well as the adequacy of “the ments that constitute the financial the stability and resilience of financial financial infrastructure in terms of le- structure to provide a favourable envi- systems in member countries”, though gal provisions, liquidity management, ronment for global firms. Even though there are a number of instances such as payments systems, corporate gover- liberalisation of regulations with re- in the case of Argentina where a posi- nance, accounting and auditing”. For spect to foreign institutions and for- tive and upbeat assessment made un- all these, the benchmark is the system eign capital inflows is not a sufficient der the programme came not long in the developed countries, especially condition for attracting such inflows, it before the onset of a financial crisis. In the United States. The assumption obviously is a necessary condition. the event, the credibility of the FSAP seems to be that the greater the degree This is illustrated by the Indian has been in question. to which financial structures in emerg- experience, where capital inflows rose And that is even truer today. This is ing markets are reshaped in the image significantly long after it liberalised its because the programme is anchored in of those prevailing in the developed financial sector. Liberalisation began the belief that the integration of fi- countries, the more resilient they will in the early 1990s and was substantial nancial markets in developing coun- be. by the middle of that decade. But it was tries with their global counterparts is It hardly bears stating that the fi- only after 2003 that India witnessed necessarily positive so long as the nancial crisis that engulfed the devel- any surge in capital inflows. Until structure, procedures and regulatory oped industrial countries and led up to 2002-03, the maximum level that net framework prevailing in “mature mar- the current recession in the real econo- inflows had touched was $8.2 billion, kets” is adopted in these countries. my has proved this assumption to be in 2001-02. The surge occurred the- Hence, the programme attempts to as- wrong. This in itself is reason for ig- reafter. Capital flows rose to $15.7 bil-

FRONTLINE 41 MAY 8, 2009

lion in 2003-04, $21.4 billion in 2005- proportion of term loans maturing af- 06, $29.8 billion in 2006-07 and ter five years has increased from 9.3 $63.8 billion in 2007-08. per cent to 16.5 per cent. As the FSAR It now appears that the problems recognises, while this could imply in- for monetary and exchange rate man- creased profits, the rising asset-liabil- agement that this surge created and ity mismatch has increased the the liquidity overhang it resulted in led liquidity risk faced by banks. to a sharp increase in credit provision However, these changes do not ap- in India as the Financial Sector Assess- pear to have been driven by the desire ment Report (FSAR) indicates. Total to provide more credit to the produc- bank credit grew at a scorching pace tive sectors of the economy. Retail from 2005 onwards, at more than dou- loans, which grew at around 41 per ble the rate of increase of nominal cent in both 2004-05 and 2005-06, gross domestic product (GDP). As a have been one of the prime drivers of result, the ratio of outstanding bank credit growth in recent years, despite credit to GDP, which had declined in the moderation in growth rates to 30 the initial post-liberalisation years per cent in 2006-07 and 17 per cent in from 30.2 per cent at the end of March 2007-08. The result was a sharp in- 1991 to 27.3 per cent at the end of crease in the retail exposure of the March 1997, doubled over the next banking system, with overall personal decade to reach about 60 per cent by loans increasing from slightly more the end of March 2008. An aspect of than 8 per cent of total non-food credit financial liberalisation and “economic in 2004 to close to 25 per cent by 2008. reform” was an increase in credit de- Of the components of retail credit, the pendence in the Indian economy, growth in housing loans has been the which is a characteristic that seems to highest in most years. have been imported from developed The danger here is that this rapid countries such as the U.S. increase in credit and retail exposure, At first sight, this increase in credit with inadequate or poor collateral, appears positive inasmuch as it reflect- could have brought more tenuous bor- ed a greater willingness on the part of rowers into the bank credit universe. A banks to lend. Thus, the growth in significant but as yet unknown propor- credit outperformed the growth in de- tion of this could be “sub-prime” lend- posits between 2004-05 and 2005-06, ing. According to one estimate, by resulting in the increase in credit-de- November 2007, there was a little posit ratio from 55.9 per cent at end more than Rs.400 billion of credit that March 2004 to 72.5 per cent at end was of sub-prime quality, defaults on March 2008. This increase was ac- which could erode the capital base of companied by a corresponding drop in the banks. the investment-deposit ratio, from It also appears that to attract such (housing)”. That increase, in its view, 51.7 per cent to 36.2 per cent, which borrowers the banks have been offer- reflects a mispricing of risk that could indicates that banks were shifting ing attractive interest rates. The period affect banks adversely in the event of away from their earlier conservative of increased credit off-take has also an economic downturn. preference to invest in safe govern- seen an increase in loans provided at But this is not the only evidence of ment securities in excess of what was interest rates below the benchmark the mispricing of risk. According to the required under the statutory liquidity prime lending rate (BPLR). The share committee, the exposure of the bank- ratio (SLR) norm. of such loans in the total rose from 27.7 ing system to the so-called “sensitive” Rapid credit growth has meant per cent in March 2002 to 76 per cent sectors, such as the capital, real estate that banks are relying on short-term at the end of March 2008. This in- and commodity markets, was also on funds to lend long. Since March 2001, crease has been marked in the case of the rise. Thus, at the end of financial there has been a steady rise in the pro- consumer credit. According to the year 2007, it stood at 20.4 per cent of portion of short-term deposits with FSAR, the rise in sub-BPLR loans can aggregate bank loans and advances, the banks. Deposits maturing up to be attributed to “an increase in liquid- with real estate contributing 18.7 of one year increased from 33.2 per cent ity, stiff competition, buoyant corpo- that figure, the capital market 1.5 per in March 2001 to 43.6 per cent in rate performance which lowered cent and commodities 0.1 per cent. March 2008. On the other hand, the credit risk and growth in retail credit The FSAR also notes that the off-

42 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

sume excessive leverage is a source of concern, since it is difficult to gauge the quantum of market and credit risks that banks are exposed to. To deal with its increased exposure to risk, the Indian banking sector too had begun securitising loans of all kinds so as to transfer the risk associat- ed with them to those who could be persuaded to buy into them. As the U.S. experience has shown, this tends to slacken diligence when offering credit, since risk does not stay with those originating retail loans. The effect of securitisation is partly seen in the income structure of the banks. Although net interest income has remained the mainstay of banks in India, fee income has been contrib- uting a significant portion to the total income of the new private and the for- eign banks in recent years. Treasury income, which was the second most important source of income until 2003-04, has declined to negligible levels.

THE IMPACT These changes in the financial sector point to two ways in which the current crisis can affect India. First, the credit stringency generated by the exodus of capital from the country and the un- certainties generated by the threat of default of retail loans that now consti- tute a high proportion of total advanc- es could freeze up retail credit and curtail demand, as is happening in the R. SHIVAJI RAO developed industrial countries. AT A "PROPERTY fair" in Chennai on February 13. Since growth in the Second, individuals and house- housing, automobiles and consumer durables sectors had been driven by holds burdened with past debt and/or credit-financed purchases encouraged by easy liquidity and low interest uncertain about their employment rates, a fall in credit offtake could intensify the effects of the ongoing crisis. would prefer to postpone purchases and not take on additional interest and balance sheet (OBS) exposure of banks subsequent to the amendment of reg- amortisation payment commitments. has increased significantly in recent ulations to permit over-the-counter Thus, the offtake of credit can shrink years, particularly in the case of for- (OTC) transactions in interest rate de- even if credit were available, resulting eign banks and new private sector rivatives. in a fall in credit-financed consump- banks. The ratio of OBS exposure to However, as the FSAR recognises, tion and investment demand. total assets increased from 57 per cent currently prevailing accounting stan- Since growth in a number of areas at the end of March 2002 to 363 per dards do not clearly specify how to such as the housing sector, automo- cent at the end of March 2008. This account for losses and profits arising biles and consumer durables had been increase is mainly on account of deriv- out of derivatives transactions. Given driven by credit-financed purchases atives whose share averaged around the lack of prudential accounting and encouraged by easy liquidity and low 80 per cent. Public sector banks have disclosure norms, the propensity of interest rates, this could intensify the followed, with their exposure rising some players to use derivatives to as- effects of the ongoing crisis. २

FRONTLINE 43 world affairs MAY 8, 2009 The real world vs Obama’s imagery

Afghanistan: U.S.’ Afghan war rages in provinces close to Kabul, in the Pakistani

border regions and in the cluster of southern provinces. BY MARC W. HEROLD

In some 80 days in office, Obama has managed to raise the monthly average kill rate achieved by George Bush from 32 during 2008 to 45 a month (for February-March 2009). “Omission is the most powerful form of lie.” – George Orwell “During a war, news should be given out for instruction rather than information.” – Joseph Goebbels First Bush then Obama and their NATO allies have been killing twice as many civilian women and children than civilian men in America’s Afghan war. – Marc W. Herold ON March 31, 2009, Jon Stewart, in his “Daily Show”, announced that Commander-in-Chief Ba- rack Obama’s mission of “Redefinition Accom- plished” was in full swing.1 A new Orwellian vocabulary, more soothing and politically correct, has been invented and marketed to the American citizenry by Obama. But as Peter Baker of The New York Times noted, “For all the shifting words, Mr. Obama has left the bulk of [George W.] Bush’s national security infrastructure intact so far.”2 In the real world, average Afghans and Pashtuns in the Pakistani border areas experience this continuing

brutality daily as I shall now document, but Amer- ADAM BERRY/BLOOMBERG NEWS icans are largely oblivious, remaining enthralled in PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA at a news the puffery of “Yes, We Can” and “Change We Can conference after a NATO meeting Believe In”. The phrase “civilian casualties” is non- in Strasbourg, France, on April 4.

1 See and listen to at http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=222759&title=redefinition-accomplished 2 Peter Baker, “The Words Have Changed, but Have the Policies?”, The New York Times (April 2, 2009) as well as Michael Barone, “Obama’s Foreign Policy is Very Much a Continuation of the Bush Policies”, U.S News & World Report (April 8, 2009) at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/09/usnews/whispers/main4932324.shtml

44 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

the monthly death toll of occupation forces has risen (Table 1). Whereas the Associated Press re- ported that during the first two months of 2009, “militants” had killed 60 people and U.S.-led forces killed 100, my data indicates that U.S./NA- TO attacks led to the death of 137-141 Afghan civilians (Table 1)6. As a result, the ratio of Afghan ci- vilians killed per occupation-soldier death – a measure of the lethality of America’s Afghan war for Afghan civil- ians relative to that for U.S./NATO occupation troops – has been falling from above five during late 2008 to about 1.4 during March 2009. This ratio was 2.9-3.5 in 2008, 4.4-5.6 in 2007 and 3.4-4.0 in 2006.7 Combating the Afghan resistance with ground op- erations is simply much more danger- ous for foreign forces than relying upon air strikes. By reducing air strikes, foreign forces kill fewer Af- ghan civilians per attack but suffer greater fatalities and injuries, which, in turn, fuels home country opposition to the war. A case in point was in August 2008 existent in Obama’s vocabulary as a a country where military experts esti- when 12 French troops were killed and search of Google reveals. Dead Afghan mate that 400,000-500,000 foreign another 21 injured, which resulted in and Pashtun civilians have simply soldiers would be necessary to quell an outpouring of public questioning of been redefined as non-existent. the resistance.4 France’s role in Afghanistan. Two- As Obama’s Afghan “surge” takes While much continuity with Bush thirds of French citizenry already op- hold, more fighting and more civilian policies exists, some opportunistic posed any French involvement in the deaths are certain (as well as renewed changes in the execution of the Afghan Afghan conflict.8 efforts by the United States to redefine, war have been made. Most are inspired The U.S. astutely manipulated omit and suppress reporting upon by the aim to better market “the good some NATO countries in 2004 into such). The U.S. mainstream media will war” to the American public. For ex- doing the heavy lifting of fighting (and mostly be a cooperative partner in the ample, under Obama U.S./North At- taking casualties) in parts of Afghan- Pentagon’s news management. Many lantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) istan, for example, the British in Hel- an Afghan sees no realistic prospect of forces are relying less upon deadly air mand, the Canadians in Kandahar, the peace as long as foreign soldiers re- strikes, which are 4-10 times more Dutch and the Australians in Uruzgan. main in Afghanistan, and the Taliban deadly for Afghan civilians than are Quickly, non-U.S. foreign troops’ ca- have no incentive to compromise when ground attacks. As a consequence, the sualties rose dramatically in both ab- they are in a winning position.3 An monthly total of Afghan civilians5 solute and relative terms (Table 2). additional 17,000-21,000 U.S. troops killed by U.S./NATO action has de- Indeed, as I have reported, the rel- – the Obama surge – means nothing in clined moderately at the same time as ative lethality for non-U.S. foreign

3 For example, expressed in Chris Sands, “War-Weary People Fear Little Hope for Peace”, The National (March 9, 2009) at http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/ article?AID=/20090309/FOREIGN/614496422/1002 , Kathy Gannon, “Afghans Fed up with Government, U.S.”, Associated Press (September 5, 2008) at http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2008/09/07-3 and Abdus Sattar Ghazali, “Obama Embraces Bush’s ‘War on Terror’ Policy Without Naming It So”, OpEdNews (February 25, 2009) at http://www.amperspective.com/html/obama_embraces_.html 4 Paul Daley, “Taliban Thwart Bid to Rebuild”, Sydney Morning Herald (February 1, 2009) at http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2009/01/31/1232818793464.html 5 I include in this number, Pashtun tribes people in the Afghan-Pakistan border regions. 6 “Toll: More US Troops More Casualties”, Press TV (March 1, 2009) at http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=87200§ionid=351020403 7 Details in my “Matrix of Death”, Frontline (October 24, 2008), pages 4-23. Also published in Canada’s Global Research at http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10506 8 “Afghan Ambush Kills French Troops”, BBC News (August 19, 2008) at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7569942.stm

FRONTLINE 45 MAY 8, 2009

place, more less-deadly ground raids statements included a promise to by U.S./NATO forces are occurring. coordinate all raids with local Af- The number of U.S./NATO incidents ghan forces.12 in which Afghan civilians perished At a more general level, a thorough during 2009 is as follows: January: 11; review of past counter-insurgency op- February: 28; and March: 31. The total erations carried out by the Rand Corp number of Afghan civilians killed in noted that history tells us that increas- U.S./NATO actions during January 1- ing troop levels to fight an insurgency April 8, 2009, is 194-202. This num- is not a winning formula. The Soviets ber will rise markedly as winter passes learnt this after 10 years in Afghan- troops is higher than for U.S. soldiers.9 and the fighting season begins in ear- istan; the French learnt it in Algeria, The lethality ratio (the lethality ratio nest, propelled forward by a doubling and the U.S. had its lesson in Vietnam. is defined as soldiers killed per 1,000 of U.S. occupation troops in Afghan- The larger the foreign troop presence in-theatre troops) for NATO occupa- istan under Obama’s “surge”. The in wars of counterinsurgency, “the tion forces in 2006 was two to three number of civilians killed reported worse the outcome tends to be”. That times that for U.S. troops (Table 3). here is an underestimate for two major was the sweeping conclusion drawn in The French seemed to have under- reasons: air strikes in remote areas, as a 2008 study by the Rand Corp.13 Oth- stood the dynamic and announced in Kunar and Nuristan, go unreported; ers have asserted that the presence of that by the end of 2006 they would and Waheed Muzhda, a political ana- more foreign troops in Afghanistan to- withdraw their 200 Special Forces lyst, also blamed the international day will raise the numbers of civilians combat troops from southern and forces for giving unfair reports about killed. The huge footprint left by for- eastern Afghanistan (where they had civilian deaths in Afghanistan. Muzh- eign forces in Afghanistan – whether been deployed since July 2003). da said that there were several such by killing civilians, breaking and en- The level of lethality for U.S. occu- incidents in which civilians were killed tering compounds, beating and/or ab- pation forces is actually much higher and the foreign troops said that they ducting persons, hooding prisoners, than the figures above suggest. This is killed militants.10 Even Afghan offi- acts of outrage such as photographing because of the “long tail phenomenon” cials have differed on many occasions a captured Afghan man naked,14 and as applied to the U.S. military (the with foreign troops’ reporting about so on – has fuelled the Afghan resis- number of support personnel (the tail) civilians’ deaths, he added.11 The pat- tance to the foreign occupier. Graeme required to support combat troops tern has continued under Obama, Smith of The Globe & Mail reported on (the tooth)). The tail has also been Each report follows a very simi- the night-time raids by foreign forces, greatly lengthened as the U.S. military lar pattern – U.S. forces report some which cause almost as much resent- has contracted out to private military number of militants killed, then a ment as the more lethal air strikes.15 contractors (for example, Halliburton- report from local authorities ap- For example, in the January 24, KBR, DynCorp, Triple Canopy, Black- pears saying something like, “No, ac- 2009, raid in Laghman in which 22 water, Executive Outcomes, and so on) tually that was just a family in our civilians (18 children, two women and for support services (with all kinds of village (or a wedding party, or a…), two men) were killed, Ghazi Gul, an problems regarding lack of oversight, and we want answers.” Eventually, intelligence officer in the Karzai mil- corruption, over-billing and so on). there’s a report that a U.S. officer has itary, lost his father, mother, two Such outsourcing has been driven less visited the village, handed out a brothers, a cousin, a nephew and two by cost considerations and more by a check… and expressed our deepest nieces, who were killed by U.S. forces desire to reduce military casualties, apologies – and then a commander in the raid on the village of Garoch in which are politically costly in the U.S. in Kabul issues a very serious state- Laghman province. On February 18, ment about how troubling the civil- Gul told the Chicago Tribune, “If we DEADLY TRADE-OFF ian casualties are, and how we are talk about the Americans, they are my As regards Afghan civilian casualties, a now going to change our approach enemies. And if I can, I will hurt them.” deadly trade-off is at work. Whereas and take all sorts of steps to protect In an important recent essay on the fewer very deadly air strikes are taking civilians. The most recent of such Afghan war, the French scholar Gilles

9 See analysis and data in my “Relative Lethality. Survival Odds for Civilians and Occupiers in Afghanistan and Iraq”, Cursor.org (January 6, 2006) at http://cursor.org/stories/ relativelethality.html 10 Hundreds of such cases are documented in my data base, The Afghan Victim Memorial Project, at http://pubpages.unh.edu/~mwherold 11 For one, Karzai has been critical of U.S. killing Afghan civilians. See also Javed Hamim Kakar, “Taliban Dispute UN Report on Civilian Deaths”, Pajhwok Afghan News (February 19, 2009) at http://www.pajhwok.com/new/viewstory.asp?id=70028 12 From “An Afghan Surge…in Civilian Casualties” (March 15, 2009) at http://firedoglake.com/2009/03/15/an-afghan-surge-in-civilian-casualties/ 13 David C. Gompert and John Gordon IV, War by Other Means. Building Complete and Balanced Capabilities for Counterinsurgency (Santa Monica: RAND National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corp., 2008) 14 For the photo by the German reporter, Perry Kretz, see http://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/:Afghanistan-Osama-Laden--/526526.html?cp=5 15 Graeme Smith, “Report Slams Tactic of Night Raids on Afghan Homes”, The Globe & Mail (December 23, 2008).

46 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

Dorronsoro was explicit, The mere presence of foreign soldiers fighting a war in Afghan- istan is probably the single most im- portant factor in the resurgence of the Taliban.16 Frederico Manfredi, adviser to the Belgian government, wrote recently about his trip to southern Afghanistan where he was introduced to a tradi- tional community leader in a mud- brick village about an hour outside of Kandahar. Manfredi writes, A gracious elder entered the room. He was tall and slender…he introduced his lineage, and said nonchalantly, “You know, half my family is Taliban.”…I listened care- fully: “Here in the south, whenever people see foreign armies taking over, they want to fight them. I don’t blame those who join the Taliban. At least the ‘Taliban’ are Afghans, they’re Pashtuns, they’re kin…. I’m not a Talib. But I want the occupa- tion to end.”17 The case of Logar province is very instructive here. The foreign troop presence in Logar before 2009 was minimal. Consequently, the Taliban held sway. Relatively little fighting took place and few civilians were killed or injured. Then, the Americans – Task Force Spartan with 10th Mountain Division troops as part of Obama’s surge – ar- rived in early February 2009. Fighting picked up and civilians began dying: five killed in February, six killed in March, and seven killed in the first week of April. For example, on March 13, Abdul Rashid and his four sons were killed by U.S. soldiers, leading to public protests.18 Angry with reported innocent kill- ing of five persons of a family by the U.S. forces in a raid in central Logar province, protesters besieged the building of Charkh district headquar- LIU JIN/AFP ters the next day. More than 300 pro- AN AFGHAN YOUTH walks past a U.S. soldier on the outskirts of Naray in testing people, chanting Nuristan province of Afghanistan on April 3.

16 Gilles Dorronsoro, “Focus and Exit: An Alternative Strategy for the Afghan War”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report (January 2009) at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/afghan_war-strategy.pdf 17 Frederico Manfredi, “Rethinking U.S. Policy in Afghanistan”, World Policy Journal 25, 4 (Winter 2008/9): 23. 18 Details in Shahpur Arab, “US Forces Kill Five Civilians in Logar: Officials”, Pajhwok Afghan News (March 14, 2009) at http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2009/03/14/us-forces- kill-five-civilians-in-logar-officials.phtml

FRONTLINE 47 MAY 8, 2009

anti-American slogans, called for an first nine days of April, killing 31 immediate trial of the killers. people…. Of the 14 strikes carried out in the first 99 days of 2009, only DRONE ATTACKS one proved successful, killing two During January 1 to April 9, 2009, the most-wanted senior al-Qaeda lead- regions with the highest numbers of ers – Osama al Kini and Sheikh civilians killed by foreign troops were Ahmed Salim Swedan. Both had lost Laghman, the border areas of Pakis- their lives in a New Year’s Day drone tan, Helmand, Logar, Kapisa and Her- strike carried out in the South Wazi- at (Table 4). In other words, America’s ristan region on January 1, 2009.19 Afghan war rages in provinces close to In other words, in some 80 days in the capital of Kabul, in the Pakistani office, Obama managed to raise the border regions where Central Intelli- monthly average kill rate achieved gence Agency (CIA) drones do all the by Bush from 32 during 2008 to 45 a killing, and in the cluster of southern month (for February-March 2009). provinces (Uruzgan, Helmand, Herat, Most of this has been omitted or and Kandahar). Deadly CIA drone at- misreported in the U.S. Totals are nev- tacks within Pakistan have continued er published. Even if totals are pub- since Obama took command. Of the lished, as the United Nations 60 cross-border U.S. drone attacks Assistance Mission in Afghanistan upon Pakistan between January 14, (UNAMA) did for 2007 and 2008 or 2006, and April 8, 2009, as the Associated Press did, the figures Only 10 were able to hit their are not credible as no disaggregated actual targets, killing 14 wanted al- data is provided, thereby violating a Qaeda leaders, besides perishing basic premise of social science, name- 687 innocent Pakistani civilians. ly, that all results should be reproduc- The success percentage of the U.S. ible. George Orwell would label all this predator strikes thus comes to not a lie. more than six per cent. Figures An analysis of the demographics of compiled by the Pakistani author- Afghan civilians who perished at the ities show that a total of 701 people, hands of the U.S. and NATO since including 14 al-Qaeda leaders, have Obama assumed the presidency re- been killed since January 2006 in 60 veals the following (Table 5). Women American predator attacks targeting and children killed by U.S./NATO the tribal areas of Pakistan. Two forces amounted to 63 per cent of strikes carried out in 2006 had the identifiable deaths (and men 37 killed 98 civilians while three at- per cent). This compares to figures tacks conducted in 2007 had slain respectively of 72 per cent and 28 per 66 Pakistanis, yet none of the want- wrong due to faulty intelligence in- cent during January-August 2008.20 ed al-Qaeda or Taliban leaders could formation, killing hundreds of in- The difference is accounted for by the be hit by the Americans right on nocent civilians, including women much greater reliance upon bombing target. However, of the 50 drone at- and children. The number of the Pa- strikes during 2008. In other words, tacks carried out between January kistani civilians killed in those 50 first Bush, then Obama, and their 29, 2008, and April 8, 2009, 10 hit attacks stood at 537, in which 385 NATO allies have been killing twice their targets and killed 14 wanted people lost their lives in 2008 and as many civilian women and chil- al-Qaeda operatives. Most of these 152 people were slain in the first 99 dren than civilian men in America’s attacks were carried out on the basis days of 2009 (between January 1 Afghan war. Very little change in the of intelligence believed to have been and April 8)…. Of the 14 attacks tar- relative proportion has occurred since provided by the Pakistani and Af- geting Pakistan in 2009, three were Obama became Commander-in-Chief. ghan tribesmen who had been spy- carried out in January, killing 30 My argument here includes men as ing for the U.S.-led allied forces people, two in February killing 55 civilians, thereby not falling into the stationed in Afghanistan. The re- people, five in March killing 36 peo- essentialist trap of equating women maining 40 drone attacks went ple and four were conducted in the and children with innocent civilians.21

19 “60 Drone Hits Kill 14 Al-Qaeda Men, 687 Civilians,” The News (April 10, 2009) at http://www.thenews.com.pk/print3.asp?id=21440 20 Derived from my “Matrix of Death”, Frontline (October 24, 2008). 21 A theme explored in R. Charli Carpenter, ‘Innocent Women and Children’: Gender, Norms and the Protection of Civilians (Farnham, U.K.: Ashgate Publishing, 2006), 217 pages.

48 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

The high proportion of women and children killed reflects the fact that U.S./NATO forces are assaulting do- mestic or home spaces. What does the Obama imagery emphasise? Talking about the Obama surge we are instructed that, “These troops are going to help us counter Taliban territorial advances, deny safe havens and create security for Afghan civilians,” said a senior Obama admin- istration official, speaking on the con- dition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak publicly.22 The photograph on this page shows one of the 56 Afghan children killed by U.S./NATO forces since Oba- ma became Commander-in-Chief.

CONCLUSION What was originally (2001-04) an American war (with “poodle” Blair tag- ging along) became a U.S./NATO war during 2005-08, but that is now changing. As has become apparent, Europe – especially Old Europe – is bailing out on America. They see Af- ghanistan as America’s war. Obama’s effort at the recent NATO meeting in Strasbourg to cajole and beg Euro- peans to do more fighting and provide more monies failed miserably.23 Pa- trick Buchanan lays out the European thinking clearly, Because Europe sees no threat from Afghanistan and no vital in- terest in a faraway country where NATO Europeans have not fought since the British Empire folded its tent long ago. Al-Qaeda did not at- tack Europe out of Afghanistan. America was attacked. Because, said Osama bin Laden in his “declaration of war”, America was occupying the sacred soil of Saudi Arabia, choking Muslim Iraq to death and providing Israel with the weapons to repress the Palestinians. As Europe has no troops in Saudi Arabia, is exiting KAMAL SADAT/REUTERS Iraq and backs a Palestinian state, A VILLAGER LOOKS at Jannat Gul’s six-day-old infant killed in a midnight Europeans figure, they are less likely U.S. ground attack on April 8/9, 2009, in the district of Gorbaz, near Khost. to be attacked than if they are fight-

22 Julian Barnes and Greg Miller, “Obama Orders More troops to Afghanistan”, Los Angeles Times (February 18, 2009) at http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg- afghan-troops18-2009feb18,0,7002157,print.story 23 Superbly articulated in Hans Vogel, “The Emperor’s New Clothes: Mr. Change’s Recent Europe Trip”, Pravda.RU (April 10, 2009) at http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/ columnists/10-04-2009/107385-Change_Emperor-0

FRONTLINE 49 MAY 8, 2009

statement. “Two armed militants engaged the force and were killed, a total of four suspected militants were detained,” it said. But district governor Khaibar Momand con- demned the killings, saying the vic- tims were civilians and that the operation had not been coordinated with Afghan troops. About 100 resi- dents gathered to protest against the killings, saying they would not bury the bodies until they received an ex- planation. Four houses were also de- stroyed in the raid, residents told Reuters. “It is better to join the Tali- ban than be neutral and be victi- mised,” one resident named Rahmatullah said. “Foreign forces

STEVEN SENNE/AP are not here for our security; they SAID T. JAWAD, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to the U.S. He recently capture civilians in the middle of the proclaimed that all that the Americans needed to do after killing Afghan night and kill them. The govern- civilians was to apologise and all would be well. ment is useless and we won’t ask anything from it. We can take our ing and killing Muslims in Afghan- and discussion/education. Such activ- own revenge ourselves,” he said.26 istan.24 ities can easily be carried out just about But Afghanistan’s Ambassador to The continuity by Obama of Bush’s anywhere in the world; certainly Ye- the U.S., Said Jawad, would not un- policies is striking, the soothing rheto- men, Pakistan, and the Sahara are derstand. He recently proclaimed that ric notwithstanding. Obama continues prime locations. The effects of the U.S. all that the Americans needed to do the troop build-up begun under Bush bombing and invading Afghanistan after killing Afghan civilians was to during 2008. have been to stir up hatred of the West apologise and all would be well.27 An Drone attacks in Pakistan multip- and to decentralise radical Islamic “I’m sorry” will make revenge, so cen- ly. Foreign forces’ midnight raids upon groups, thereby creating a much more tral to Pushtunwali, evaporate. From Afghan homes continue. The hopeless dangerous and hidden “enemy”. Oba- the safety and comfort of Washington, effort to build up an Afghan police ma is pursuing precisely a military tac- Jawad instructed his suffering com- force persists, or “Afghanise” the war tical policy guided by the three patriots back in Afghanistan, “This is a in a way the U.S. attempted in Vietnam dangerous or misleading propositions price that we have to pay if we want and failed. Most importantly, Obama’s Gilles Dorronsoro warned against: security and stability in Afghanistan, primary justification for the continua- “playing local”, “searching for ‘moder- the region and the world.” tion and escalation of America’s war ate’ Taliban”, and pressuring Pakis- The Guardian’s one-time corre- upon Afghanistan has reverted to pre- tan.25 spondent in Moscow during the anti- cisely the one President Bush uttered Obama’s military policies continue Soviet struggle in Afghanistan, Simon after 9/11: the bombing and invasion is killing Afghan civilians. In the wee Jenkins, summed up the future intended to deny a haven to Al Qaeda hours of March 19, 2009, a U.S. admirably, in Afghanistan where it might plan ground attack killed two civilians. A As with the Russians so with the further attacks. Never mind that the Reuters reporter, Rafeeq Shirzad, de- West: this poor, intensely private 9/11 attacks were planned in Ham- scribed what happened, country will one day see off another burg. The early morning raid was invader who sought to reorganise its The Al Qaeda training camps in aimed at disabling an al Qaeda cell history with guns, bombs and mon- Afghanistan were very low-tech, prim- of bomb-makers and planners in Ba- ey. It was never going to work. Pain- itive operations where the primary ti Kot district in Nangarhar prov- fully, we are now beginning to emphasis was upon physical training ince… the U.S. military said in a realise this.28 २

24 Patrick J. Buchanan, “Why Europe Won’t Fight”, Antiwar.org (April 9, 2009) at http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2009/04/09/why-europe-wont-fight/ 25 Dorronsoro (2009), op. cit.: 4-7 26 Emphasis added by M.H. - Rafeeq Shirzad, “Afghans Protest anti-Qaeda Raid Which Kills two”, Reuters (March 19, 2009) at http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/ idUSISL435097 27 “Afghan Envoy Defends US Raids”, Al Jazeera.net (April 11, 2009) at http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/04/2009410225414127835.html 28 Simon Jenkins, “Parallels with Nam”, The Guardian (March 31, 2009) at http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-03-31-parallels-with-nam

50 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 World Affairs/North Korea ‘Satellite’ shock North Korea’s latest “satellite” launch propels into focus a potential

reconfiguration of the East Asian order. BY P.S. SURYANARAYANA IN SINGAPORE

intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). America is Pyongyang has jolted not only not as alarmed by it as it was by China’s space-faring feat of successfully carrying out an anti-satellite test the United States but also Japan, in 2007. From the standpoint of U.S. military ex- perts, the 2007 event was as significant as the former South Korea and China. The Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik, the first orbiting satellite, in 1957. While the DPRK’s latest test poses fulcrum of any future power no threat to the U.S. supremacy in outer space, Presi- dent Barack Obama has led a new diplomatic offen- equation might well be the sive. Thereby hangs yet another story of a potential reconfiguration of the East Asian order with refer- U.S.-China relationship over time. ence to the DPRK itself. Surely, diplomatic experts THE controversial launch of a “satellite” by the do not expect any such reconfiguration to take place Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or in the near future. However, Pyongyang has yet North Korea) on April 5 has once again upset the again jolted not only the U.S. but also Japan, South strategic calculations of major powers in East Asia. Korea and China. As a “resident power” in the region, the United States At the time this report is written, the United is leading the campaign to tame the DPRK. Nations Security Council is likely to debate a draft However, the U.S. and its allies see the launch as resolution condemning the DPRK’s latest action. In no more than a partially successful test-flight of an the first place, the draft was not at all easy to formu- late. Differences between China and Russia, on the one side, and the U.S. and Japan, on the other, were slowly narrowed. It was not as if China and Russia were at first supportive of the DPRK’s ballistic mis- sile programme, already a subject of the Council’s sanctions. The initial concerns of these two veto- empowered permanent members were centred on a matter of principle. They were against any censure of a U.N. member-state for its attempt at space explo- ration under international law. They wanted to be sure that the DPRK had deviated from the path that Iran recently charted by demonstrably launching a satellite into space.

A FLYING OBJECT At stake in this entire closed-door debate was the DPRK’s failure to show that a satellite was indeed put into orbit. A Japanese spokesman told Frontline that the DPRK, by launching “a flying object” of the kind monitored, had violated the relevant U.N. reso- lutions. He was speaking shortly after Japan detect- ed the first signs of the launch. What could not be LEE JAE-WON /REUTERS missed were the sarcasm and diplomatic delicacy SOUTH KOREANS BURN signs denouncing North behind his reference to a purported satellite as no Korean leader Kim Jong-il and the rocket launch, more than a flying object. near the U.S. embassy in Seoul on April 5. Sarcasm was writ large over the assessment that

FRONTLINE 51 MAY 8, 2009

Pyongyang’s much-advertised satellite Two versions on the technical data, test had in fact failed. For weeks before one by the DPRK and the other by the launch, the DPRK was busy an- Japan, merit attention for the light nouncing its plans to put a satellite in they shed on the importance of the space for peaceful purposes. Due dili- launch. The DPRK state news agency gence was also evident in the DPRK’s said a home-made three-stage rocket, pre-launch notifications to the rele- Unha-2 (Milky Way), put an indige- vant international maritime and avia- nous communications satellite into or- tion authorities. They were advised to bit. The entire operation was said to keep clear of the likely flight path in the have taken nine minutes and two sec- sky and the waters below during the onds. The satellite, with an unspecified planned launch between April 4 and 8. technical profile, would take 104 min- It was quite extraordinary that the utes and 12 seconds for each orbit DRPK, often dismissive of the larger around the earth, the agency empha- international community’s “norms”, sised. The satellite would, in its “oval took so much care now. orbits”, come as close to the earth as 490 km and go as far away as 1,426 km, the DPRK informed. The DPRK is A logical issue is whether the elab- orate statement was a fake progress fully cognisant report on a botched-up launch or in- AN IMAGE MADE deed the intended orbital plan of an available on April 7 of the U.S. as actual satellite. In any case, Japan, shows the “rocket” South Korea and the U.S. had, before lifting off from a “resident the event, gone on military alert Musudan-ni, against the possibility of a threatening North Korea. power” in or wayward launch. However, as the controversial launch progressed, none East Asia. of the countries felt the need to in- tercept or shoot down either the rocket At the same time, it was diplomatic or its “debris”. nicety on Japan’s part to describe the Significant in this context is the purported satellite as just a flying ob- Japanese account of the launch. It was ject. After all, a satellite launch is not estimated that the first “part” or stage tabooed under international law, al- of the “flying object” fell into the sea at though the application of this norm to a point about 280 km west of Japan. Pyongyang remains highly debatable. The second “part” was estimated to Japan said Security Council Resolu- have plunged into the Pacific Ocean at tions 1695 and 1718 “clearly prohibit a point about 1,270 km east of Japan. North Korea from developing ballistic These initial estimates were later fine- missile technology”. tuned. As for the “third stage” of the This position, Tokyo said, would be rocket, the DPRK’s estranged ethnic valid, regardless of Pyongyang’s claims neighbour, South Korea, said the ready in place, will be tightened. These that it had launched a satellite and not launch as a whole was “not a success”. are an arms embargo and other steps an ICBM. For Tokyo and its allies, the Seoul asserted that “no object entered designed to prevent the flow of missile- technological bottom line was that the orbit”. Obviously, the U.S. was in related and nuclear-weapons-related launch involved a dual-use rocket with agreement. traffic to and from the DPRK. potential military capabilities. The The Security Council held an A matter of utmost interest, on the diplomatic bottom line, though, was emergency session hours after the eve of a final decision by the Security that the launch would have “a negative launch, but the five permanent mem- Council, was the DPRK’s likely reac- impact on peace and stability in East bers and Japan agreed on a draft only a tion. Pyongyang had threatened to Asia”. In such an elaborate context, week later. While the details of the walk away from the six-party talks (the Tokyo’s initiative for an emergency draft are not definitive, the U.S., Rus- U.S., the DPRK, China, South Korea, session of the Security Council was sia, China, Britain, France and Japan Japan and Russia) on North Korea’s readily accepted by the other mem- are concerned. It is understood that a nuclear weapons programme in the bers. range of sanctions on the DPRK, al- event of new sanctions. These parleys,

52 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

nomic guarantees that could persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear and missile plans. Additionally, the is- sue of Pyongyang’s existing capabil- ities in these domains, however acquired, will need to be addressed. This is a tall order. The DPRK test-fired a stream of missiles to coincide with the Indepen- dence Day celebrations in the U.S. in 2006. On October 9 that year, Pyon- gyang tested a nuclear explosive de- vice: the explosion was generally believed to have measured 3 to 4 on the Richter scale. China voiced “firm opposition to the test”, while Japan took serious note of “the small experiment”. Those two actions by the DPRK, after the process of the six-party parleys began, led to sequential U.N. sanctions in Resolu- tions 1695 and 1718. In fact, Pyon- gyang carried out an intermediate-range missile test in 1998. That was also described as a “sat- ellite launch”. It is against this background that the impact of Pyongyang’s latest “satel- lite launch” on East Asian power equa- tions will be felt. Already, South Korea has pledged to take “concrete counter- measures”. And Japan is assessing the long-term trajectory that the DPRK might potentially take if allowed to re- main unchecked. Pyongyang views Tokyo and Seoul as hostile neighbours. With China and Russia, the DPRK’s ties have fluctuat- ed from political warmth to indiffer- ence. Above all, the DPRK is fully cogni- AP sant of the U.S. as a “resident power” in chaired by China, have made slow but ment as one of his priorities. He an- East Asia. In large part, DPRK leader real progress towards formulating nounced a firm commitment, for the Kim Jong-il’s public celebration of the principles and procedures for the first time ever by the U.S., to the total latest test is directed at the new powers DPRK’s nuclear disarmament. The elimination of all nuclear weapons, in- that be in Washington, and at China. proverbial devil is not in the details of cluding his country’s, over time. While Indeed, the fulcrum of any future pow- these agreed norms but in their actual being realistic about the futuristic er equations in East Asia might well be implementation on the ground. If the scope of such a commitment, he did the U.S.-China relationship over time. North Koreans walk out, a possibility pledge a serious beginning by the U.S. In fact, Western experts such as Ken- one week after their “satellite launch”, It is too early to predict whether his neth B. Pyle point out that “Japan’s disarming them in the nuclear and affirmations will push forward the leaders do not want to be hostage to missile fields will be tougher. multilateral efforts to disarm the the China policy of the United States”. Around the time North Korea DPRK in the nuclear and missile do- All these long-term issues have been launched its “satellite”, Obama was mains. The six parties will need to propelled into focus by the DPRK’s touring Europe, with nuclear disarma- agree upon a set of security and eco- latest action. २

FRONTLINE 53 update MAY 8, 2009

Fujimori gets port the former President’s policies. Fujimori’s daughter, who has signalled life term her intention to run for the presidency, ALBERTO FUJIMORI, former described the Supreme Court’s verdict President of Peru, was sentenced to 25 as a “victory for terrorist groups”. years in prison by a special Bench of During the trial, Fujimori told the the country’s Supreme Court on charg- judges that the current President, Alan es of human rights abuse, including Garcia, should also have been called to murder and kidnapping. The 70-year- account for the massacre of peasants old Fujimori will now conceivably during his first term of office in the late spend the rest of his life in prison. 1980s. In 1986, when Garcia was Pres- The progress of the case against ident, 300 guerillas of the Shining Fujimori, who ruled Peru with an iron Path, a Maoist group, were murdered hand for more than 10 years, was fol- in two separate prison complexes. lowed with great interest throughout A key segment of the populace con- Latin America. This is the first time tinues to remain diehard supporters of that a democratically elected head of the former President. They credit Fuji- state has been convicted for abuse of mori with having brought in economic power in the region. The Switzerland- and political stability to the country. based International Commission of Their numbers may only increase, Jurists said the court’s decision “con- mainly owing to the political and eco- stitutes a new step for justice in Latin nomic mismanagement by Garcia,

America and in the world: a former REUTERS who is serving a second term in office head of state, democratically elected, ALBERTO FUJIMORI AT at the after a gap of more than 16 years. By has been found guilty of crimes against court, on April 7. the mid-1990s, Fujimori had liquidat- humanity by a national court”. ed the top leadership of the Shining Other heads of state in Latin author” of the massacres in a working Path. Their leader, Abimael Guzman, America, such as General Augusto Pi- class district of the capital, Lima, and was arrested in 1992 and is serving a nochet, the former President of Chile, in the University of La Cantuta. The life sentence. who may have been guilty of far more court also held Fujimori responsible The trial and conviction of Fujimo- grievous crimes were allowed to retire, for the kidnapping of two journalists in ri has already had a global ripple effect. go into exile or die peacefully in bed. 1992. The former President was sen- There are calls for the same legal yard- Fujimori too had fled to Japan (he is tenced last year for six years in another stick to be applied to George W. Bush the son of Japanese immigrants) after case pertaining to misuse of power. and Tony Blair for their crimes against his administration started unravelling Ninety witnesses and experts testified humanity, which are more brutal and in 2000 following revelations of his in 160 sessions during the proceedings larger in scope than the crimes of Fuji- government’s involvement in the brib- against Fujimori. mori. ing of parliamentarians. Graphic evi- A defiant Fujimori vehemently The Spanish Judge Baltasar Gar- dence of the involvement of Vladimir proclaimed his innocence throughout zon, who first shot into fame by trying Montesinos, his spy chief, trying to buy the 15-month-long trial. He tried to to get Pinochet tried in Europe for off legislators was aired on the national portray the trial as politically motivat- crimes against humanity, has now television. Montesinos, who was given ed and described himself as the man opened criminal investigations against a free hand by Fujimori to conduct who rescued his countrymen from the five senior Bush administration offi- anti-insurgency and covert activities, twin threats of hyperinflation and ter- cials. They include Alberto Gonzales, a is also serving a life sentence in Peru. rorism. His supporters, led by his 33- Bush administration Attorney General The charges, which the three- year-old daughter and political heir and Douglas Feith, former Under Sec- member Bench upheld, included Fuji- Keiko Fujimori, staged demonstra- retary of Defence and a neoconserva- mori’s involvement in two massacres tions outside the court premises and tive ideologue. The investigations of civilians carried out by a military elsewhere in Lima protesting against relate to allegations of torture against death squad called Grupo Colina. The the verdict. detainees in the United States military judges, in their 711-page ruling, de- A recent opinion poll showed that base in Guantanamo, Cuba. scribed Fujimori as the “intellectual around 30 per cent of Peruvians sup- John Cherian

54 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 World Affairs/Israel DAN BALILTY/AP DAN BALILTY/AP PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman in the Knesset on April 6. Right and racist

The Likud-led government in Israel debunks the Annapolis peace deal on the

creation of a Palestinian state. BY JOHN CHERIAN

Israel is worried about the course the seized important levers of power. The coalition go- vernment, led by the right-wing Likud Party, has as U.S. is going to take on West Asia as its major partner the Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is Our Home) Party led by the racist demagogue Avigdor Lieberman. Obama has said that his government In order to give the government a secular mask and make it more palatable to the international com- is “strongly” committed to Israelis munity, the Labour Party, under the leadership of Ehud Barak, has also been co-opted. In the words of and Palestinians living side by side the veteran peace activist and former Cabinet Minis- ter Uri Avnery, by making a deal with Labour, Neta- “in peace and tranquillity”. nyahu has in one stroke “turned a government of THE formation of a coalition government in Is- lepers, which would have been viewed by the whole rael headed by an avowed hawk, Benjamin Netanya- world as a crazy bunch of ultra-nationalists, racists hu, more than a month after the election results were and fascists, into a sane and balanced government of announced is more bad news for the region and the the centre. All this, without changing its character in world. For the first time in the history of the Jewish the least.” state, individuals and parties with fascist ideas have Lieberman, who was born in Moldova, has been

FRONTLINE 55 MAY 8, 2009

given charge of the Foreign Ministry. He is currently under investigation in Israel for tax evasion, fraud and money laundering. One of his first statements after being named Foreign Minister was to debunk the United States-spon- sored Annapolis peace process. His party’s manifesto calls for the 1.5 million Palestinians in Israel to be subjected to a loyalty oath to the Jew- ish state. If they fail to submit, the manifesto emphasises, Palestinians should be booted out of Israel to join the millions of stateless Palestinians living in refugee camps. Just before Israelis went to the polls, there was a Lieberman-inspired move in the Knesset (parliament) to bar Palesti- nian parties from fielding candidates. Lieberman himself resides in an illegal

settler colony, outside the internation- NASSER SHIYOUKHI/AP ally recognised borders of Israel. A PALESTINIAN PROTESTER argues with an Israeli solider during a The move was supported by the demonstration against the barriers in Maasara village near Bethlehem. so-called centrist parties, including the Kadima Party led by Tzipi Livni. tian President Hosni Mubarak “to go American “neoconservatives” who The move could have succeeded but to hell”. In January, during Israel’s war shaped the U.S. policy during the pres- for the intervention of the Israeli High on the civilian population of Gaza, Lie- idencies of Ronald Reagan and George Court, which termed it illegal. Lieber- berman said that Israel “must contin- W. Bush, was one of the most vocal man had on a previous occasion called ue to fight Hamas just like the U.S. did opponents of the Oslo accords. This for the execution of Knesset members with the Japanese in the Second World time, he ran for the elections on a who met the elected Hamas leadership War”. He was no doubt suggesting that pledge of giving a proper burial to the in Gaza. He told an Israeli newspaper Israel drop nuclear weapons on Gaza peace process. that his priority was “entrenching of as the Americans did over Hiroshima During his first stint as Prime Min- the Jewish state”. He went on to add and Nagasaki. ster in the mid-1990s, he speeded up that if there was a contradiction be- Lieberman’s extremist views are no the illegal Jewish settlements in the tween democratic and Jewish values doubt alarming to the rest of the world West Bank and Jerusalem. But it was then “the Jewish and Zionist values are but they do have a receptive audience the Labour government under Ehud more important”. In his book My in Israel. His party got around 10 per Barak, which succeeded the Likud go- Truth, Lieberman writes that the Arab cent of the votes polled in the last gen- vernment, that further accelerated the minority, which today constitutes one- eral elections. The outgoing Prime settlement programme under the be- fifth of Israel’s population, poses the Minister, Ehud Olmert, has voiced nign gaze of Washington. In fact, the greatest threat to the future of Israel. support for Lieberman’s idea of for- “Centre-Left” Labour-led government This opinion has been voiced by the cibly expelling the Palestinian popula- was responsible for the building of leaders of the Left parties in a more tion. more settlements in the West Bank diplomatic manner. They prefer to re- In an interview to Haaretz, Olmert than even the Likud government. fer to the Palestinians inside Israel as a said that if Jews did not separate from Recent history shows that no Is- “demographic problem”, which needs the Palestinians, then Israel would raeli government has been serious to be addressed urgently. cease to be a Jewish democracy. The about statehood for Palestinians. Yitz- Lieberman, who was a night club Israeli political establishment, cutting hak Rabin had told close colleagues bouncer in Moldova, is not known for across the political divide, has con- after the signing of the Oslo accords diplomatic niceties. In 1998, he ad- cluded that the only way to retain a that there was no provision for a sep- vised the Israeli government to bomb Jewish state is by instigating even arate state in the document. In a way, the Aswan Dam because Egypt sup- more violence and repression against Rabin was correct. The Palestinian ported the Palestinian Liberation Or- the Palestinian majority, which just re- side, in a hurry to sign the Oslo ac- ganisation (PLO) and its chief Yasser fuses to accept defeat. cords, did not bother to look at the fine Arafat. More recently, he told Egyp- Netanyahu, who is close to the print. There was no mention of “self-

56 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

determination” or “independence” for There are strong indications that land for its colonists”. Freeman also Palestinians in the accords. Obama is giving the Palestinian issue rightly concluded that the terrorism All the same, the international much more importance than the previ- the U.S. faced was to a great extent community remains committed to a ous administration. At the same time, because of “the brutal oppression of two-state solution to the Israel-Pales- Israel and its powerful domestic lobby the Palestinian population by an Is- tine issue. U.S. President Barack Oba- in the U.S. are working overtime to raeli occupation that has lasted over ma told the Turkish Parliament during stall any meaningful new peace initia- 40 years and shows no signs of end- his recent visit to the country that the tive from Washington. The case of the ing”. U.S. remained “strongly” committed to former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Ara- Obama did not come out in sup- Israelis and Palestinians living side by bia, Charles Freeman, is an illustra- port of Freeman as he came under the side “in peace and tranquillity”. In a tion. Obama had named him to the sustained attack of the powerful Jew- message obviously intended for Tel important post of Chairman of the Na- ish lobby. The President has still not Aviv, Obama demanded that both tional Intelligence Council (NIC). He found the confidence to challenge the sides adhere to the goals laid out in the would have been in charge of summa- pro-Israel lobby. In fact, during the Road Map (the international peace rising the intelligence reports of all 16 campaign for the presidency, he open- plan signed in 2003) and the one (cre- U.S. intelligence agencies, which em- ly pandered to it, going to the extent of ation of Palestinian state) at the Anna- ploy around 100,000 people. saying that Jerusalem should be the polis Conference. The incoming Israeli capital of Israel. The Washington Post Foreign Minister had in his induction FREEMAN’S GUILT wrote that the Obama administration speech in the last week of March said His appointment was immediately “suffered an embarrassing defeat at that Israel was no longer bound by the met with strong protests from law- the hands of the lobbyists the Presi- commitments made at Annapolis and makers, academics and prominent co- dent vowed to keep in their place”. was changing its policies vis-a-vis the lumnists having strong ties with Israel. Freeman stepped down with all guns peace process. Freeman was wrongly accused of be- firing. He said that “unscrupulous peo- “Israel does not take orders from ing in the pay of Chinese and Arab ple with a passionate attachment to Obama”, was the reaction of Gilad Er- business interests. Though his imme- the views of a political faction in a dan, a senior Cabinet Minister belong- diate boss, Admiral Dennis Blair, the foreign country” were behind his ing to the Likud Party, to Obama’s Director of National Intelligence, de- ouster. speech in Ankara. Erdan said that the fended him, Freeman chose to resign After the barbaric attack on the people of Israel, by voting for Netanya- in the face of unremitting hostility civilian population of Gaza and now hu, had sent a message that “they will from influential sections of the politi- with the election of a rabid right-wing not become the 51st State of the U.S.”. cal establishment. Admiral Blair was government, public sympathy for Is- Israel is the biggest recipient of U.S. of the view that Freeman was just the rael in the U.S. is waning. In the mid- military aid every year. But for Amer- kind of man the Obama administra- dle of March, nine former senior U.S. ican munificence along with diplomat- tion needed to revitalise America’s in- officials and one current adviser to the ic and political support, Israel would telligence services, which were highly Obama administration urged Wash- not have survived in its present politicised during the Bush years and ington to start a dialogue with the Ha- incarnation. skewed in favour of Israel. mas leadership. The bipartisan group The Israeli establishment is wor- Freeman’s guilt, in Israeli eyes, was includes economic recovery adviser to ried about the course the new U.S. ad- that he was an expert on West Asia and the Obama administration Paul A. ministration is going to take in West the Israel-Arab conflict. In a speech in Volcker and former National Security Asia. The Obama administration has 2005, he criticised Israel’s “high- Advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbig- promised a “new relationship” with the handed and self-defeating policies” niew Brzezinski. Muslim world in general and the Arab originating in the “occupation and set- Talking to Hamas would be a dra- region in particular. Washington tlement of Arab lands”. He described matic turnaround for the White knows that the resolution of the Pal- Israel’s policy of occupation as “inhe- House. Hamas has been classified as a estinian problem is the surest way to rently violent”. In another speech, in “terrorist” organisation by the U.S. The achieve this goal. To the chagrin of the 2007, Freeman said that the U.S. had group wants the White House to push Israeli establishment, Obama has al- “embraced Israel’s enemies as our hard on the Palestinian peace process. ready shown a willingness to engage own” and that Arabs had retaliated by The new government, on the other with Iran at a time when Netanyahu is “equating Americans with Israelis as hand, is trying its best to see that the threatening to bomb the country. The their enemies”. He charged the previ- peace process is not put back on track. Israeli Prime Minister continues to ous administration with backing Is- The U.S. could finally end the policy of maintain that Iran is a clear and pre- rael’s “efforts to pacify its captive and issuing blank cheques to Israel and sent danger to the very existence of the increasingly ghettoised Arab popula- may even rethink its “special relation- Jewish state. tions” and to “seize ever more Arab ship” with the Jewish state. २

FRONTLINE 57 World Affairs MAY 8, 2009 A plan and a half

President Barack Obama’s decision to pursue the Afghan war more vigorously causes a division in the anti-war movement in the U.S.

liberal anti-Iraq war wing, who were broadly pleased A recent poll shows that 42 per cent with the “responsible” and “thoughtful” exit strategy, even as some of them wanted the timetable to be of the U.S. population opposes the shortened. The Left anti-war bloc was disappointed by the Afghan escalation. The anti-war vagueness of the statement, which did not touch on the question of a permanent military presence movement will try to speak for this (through bases). “The good news is that he has a plan,” said Leslie Cagan of United for Peace & Justice sizable number. But first it will have (a Left anti-war coalition), “and that obviously his election in no small measure was the result of the to figure out how to move the massive anti-war sentiment in the country, and he understands that.” The bad news is that U.S. mil- population around Obama. itarism continues, and “our work as an anti-war movement is far from over,” said Leslie Cagan. PRESIDENT Barack Obama inherited two In early April, Obama earned the approval of seemingly intractable wars, in Iraq and in Afghan- two-thirds of the U.S. population, much higher than istan, alongside a financial crisis that continues to that of Bush and Bill Clinton at this point in their escalate. Obama positioned himself against the un- presidencies. Two wars, a complex financial crisis, popular Iraq war, but he did not place himself in the and a major national debate on his stimulus spend- anti-war camp. It had become strategically impor- ing have not dented his enormous popularity. The tant for his electoral success to make the claim that typical mood is to give Obama time to try out his President George W. Bush’s adventure in Iraq had policies. Republican grumbles sound like bitterness. reduced the pressure on Al Qaeda and that it there- In fact, the Republican Party has now dissolved into fore increased the insecurity of the United States. irrelevance, being caught up in an internecine debate From the very first, then, the Afghanistan war over its future (much the same happened to the was to be the good war, while Iraq was the bad war. Conservatives when Tony Blair first took office in The anti-war movement’s Left flank went along with 1997). The Democrats are loath to criticise Obama, the Obama tidal wave because it enabled part of its and Democrat-leaning groups are equally wary. goal to be met: it brought the criticism of the Iraq The 77-member Congressional Progressive Cau- war to the mainstream and it rejected the view that cus (CPC) in the U.S. House of Representatives has U.S. security could only be purchased from the barrel been very quiet, offering suggestions that are of a gun. The anti-war movement’s liberal section couched in reverence. Representative Jose Serrano was never against war itself but only against the Iraq of the Bronx, New York, was an outspoken critic of war. It is this unstable union of those who opposed the Bush wars. After Obama’s speech in which he the Iraq war only and those who opposed U.S. war- spoke about the plan to withdraw by 2010, Serrano mongering in general that has now come apart. offered his support and then carefully tried to say On February 27, Obama made a cautious state- more: “Do I wish [the withdrawal date] was nine ment about drawdown from Iraq, promising to re- months [from now]? Absolutely. Do I wish [the U.S. move 142,000 troops and to end all combat would leave] zero troops? Absolutely.” The tone of operations by August 31, 2010. This appeased the both Serrano and Leslie Cagan’s comments is also indicative of how far one can go with criticism; the good news comes first, and then, gently, the bad. Letter from America Obama’s February 27 statement seems to have removed Iraq from the table. Over the past four PRASHAD months, the U.S. economy has shed an average of VIJAY 684,000 jobs. Attention within the U.S. is now on

58 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

LIU JIN/AFP U.S. SOLDIERS ARRIVE at an operation post in Nishagam, in Afghanistan’s Kunar province, on April 7. Obama’s promise to end all combat operations in Iraq by August 31, 2010, does not mean the end of U.S. militarism. the precariousness of one’s livelihood. dards for who it recruits). Military spo- news. Such disturbances are no longer Over the past five years, the U.S. mil- kesperson Eileen Lainez told the news, having become what the U.S. itary had a hard time filling its ranks. CNN: “Recruiting is always a chal- population assumes is the normal con- Now things have changed. The mil- lenge, but a tighter job market pro- dition of life in Iraq. Only 42 U.S. itary says that the upsurge in recruit- vides many opportunities to make our troops died in the first three months of ment has to do with the good news case to young men and women.” this year compared with 108 in the first coming out of Iraq, but the surveys The regular news of bomb blasts three months of 2008 and 245 in 2007 they have conducted show that the have now been moved to the centre during the same period. spur is the poor civilian job market pages of the newspapers, and they have A new book by The Washington (and a reduction in the military’s stan- all but disappeared from the television Post reporter Thomas Ricks, The Gam-

FRONTLINE 59 MAY 8, 2009

ble: General David Petraeus and the arena within Afghanistan. For in- later, to elect Obama to the presidency. American Military Adventure in Iraq, stance, the creation of political parties The Centre for American Progress 2006-2008, claims that the great vic- to harness the opinions in the country became the main conduit for those tory in Iraq is not far and that the into a democratic process. who entered Obama’s administration credit for it should go to the Surge that The split in the Obama position (its head, John Podesta, ran the Oba- began in 2007. This sort of account (many more guns, some more butter) ma transition team). During the de- provides comfort that Obama’s gradu- disabled unity within both the CPC bate within the administration, the al withdrawal will now end what and the anti-war movement in gener- Centre set up the Sustainable Security should never have begun in the first al. The two co-chairs of the CPC dis- in Afghanistan team, whose report, place. agreed, with Representative Lynn authored by Lawrence Korb and oth- The real war, Obama suggests, is Woolsey of California taking a strong ers, was released in March 2009. The the Afghan one: Bush should have anti-war position and Representative report warned the administration not prosecuted that conflict with all the Ray Grijalva of Arizona adopting the to mimic the Iraq Surge, but yet it did resources of the U.S. government rath- Obama strategy. Representative Den- not offer any plan for de-escalation or er than shifting talent and firepower to nis Kucinich of Ohio, like Lynn Wool- withdrawal. It called for more military Iraq. The imputed success of the Surge sey, came out against the Obama plan, commitment, as well as more econom- led to a section of the Obama adminis- saying, “I simply cannot endorse a ic commitment, the same tonic that tration making the case for more mil- budget or a plan that sends more of our would eventually find its way into the itary force and greater concentration brave men and women to Afghanistan, Obama plan. of power to clamp down on the in- a conflict which has the potential to The AAEI was run by three men, surgency, to repeat, in other words, the become this generation’s Vietnam.” all of whom are now in the Obama Iraq game plan. The army, it said, The Out of Iraq Congressional administration: Steve Hildebrand and should not concentrate on the inter- Caucus is also split on Afghanistan, Paul Tewes are political aides to Oba- diction of the enemy, but on the pro- here between Lynn Woolsey and Re- ma, while Brad Woodhouse is Oba- tection of the population. That is the presentative Barbara Lee of California. ma’s Director of Communications and basis of the Surge. But another camp in Barbara Lee is the only one in the U. S. Research. MoveOn, meanwhile, has the administration called for an alter- Congress who voted against the au- abandoned its anti-war activism for a native strategy. thorisation of the war against Afghan- new grassroots campaign on clean Writing in The Guardian (March istan in 2001, but she is as yet silent. energy and health care. The liberals, in 30), Representative Mike Honda of (Her office says that she will offer only other words, have abandoned the anti- California captured the tenor of this a joint statement with Lynn Woolsey, war terrain. A demonstration held in second approach: “This administra- and that they are working on this.) The Washington, D.C., on March 21 failed tion recognises the benefits of a more CPC held a vibrant forum on March 25 to draw the kind of crowds that came comprehensive security strategy and on “Afghanistan: A Road Map for Pro- to anti-war protests before the past that we must help the tribal Pashtun- gress”, and has planned to hold five election. A few thousand people gath- Pathans feel secure by making sure more such forums. The CPC is using ered, as Jerry Young of the National they have a crop that won’t be sprayed, these forums as a way to study the Assembly to End the Iraq and Afghan- a school that functions, a hospital that issues and to derive a policy based on istan Wars asked, “How can we ensure is stocked with basic supplies, and a their own discussions. It is not clear that our next demonstration is larger job that pays more than $3 a week. when it will be ready to have a single than this one?” That is a definition of security that is policy framework to offer as an alter- Groups such as Code Pink, World likely to provide more long-term se- native to the Obama plan. to Win, PeaceAction, American curity, given what we know about in- Friends Service Committee, the Unit- creased income, employment and FRACTURED MOVEMENT ed for Peace & Justice coalition, and educational enrolment correlating di- The anti-war movement that is outside ANSWER have begun to test the wa- rectly with decreased risks of violent the Congress is much more fractured. ters, to see whether they can galvanise conflict.” Sections of the liberal wing that op- people into action against the build-up The Obama plan on Afghanistan posed the Iraq war are now closely in Afghanistan and the continuation of draws from both sections of his admin- aligned with the Obama administra- warfare in Iraq. A recent poll shows istration, with a commitment to troop tion. The Centre for American Pro- that 42 per cent of the U.S. population increase to try out the Surge and an gress, MoveOn, the Service Employees opposes the Afghan escalation. The increased commitment to social International Union, and Win With- anti-war movement will try to speak spending to bolster the well-being of out War were the core elements of the for this sizable number, as will the Afghans. The plan makes no mention Americans Against Escalation in Iraq CPC. But first it will have to figure out of an exit strategy, and neither does it (AAEI). This group spent millions of how to move the population around promote the start of a genuine political dollars to stop the Bush agenda and, Obama. २

60 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 World Affairs Signs of fatigue

In its 60th year, NATO is troubled by Afghanistan and faces criticism about its

expansion even after the reason for its creation has disappeared. BY JOHN CHERIAN MICHEL EULER/AP BRITISH PRIME MINISTER Gordon Brown, NATO secretary-general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the summit in Strasbourg, France, on April 4. Barack Obama’s decision to escalate along with leaders of other member-countries at- tended the function to mark the anniversary, said in the war in Afghanistan has not gone his speech that the trans-Atlantic organisation was gearing to face the challenges of the new century. His address mainly focussed on NATO’s “crucial tasks” down well in many European in Afghanistan. The 28-member NATO (Albania and Croatia capitals. Russia has not taken kindly joined the alliance on April 1, 2009) took command of the International Security Assistance Force to the alliance’s enlargement up to (ISAF) in Afghanistan in 2003. Most of the NATO forces deployed in Afghanistan are in those areas its borders. that have very little Taliban presence. The bulk of the THE North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NA- fighting in that country is led by American forces, TO), a product of the 20th century’s Cold War, cele- supported to some extent by British, Dutch and Can- brated its 60th anniversary on April 4 in the French adian soldiers. The Germans and the French have city of Strasbourg and the German town of Kehl, shown a marked reluctance to engage the resurgent across the Rhine. Taliban head on. United States President Barack Obama, who Obama’s decision to escalate the war has not

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gone down well in many European capitals. Despite his persuasive skills, the President has not received any sig- nificant commitment from European NATO members either to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan or to undertake combat missions in Tali- ban-controlled areas with the troops they already have on the ground. In fact, the public mood in Europe is for ending the occupation of Afghanistan and for a speedy withdrawal of troops from there. The Obama administra- tion has now come to the conclusion that the only thing that it can reason- ably expect from the major European members is more financial backing for the war. “out of arQuestions are also being asked about NATO troops being de- ployed in Afghanistan, an Asian coun- try, in the first place. Article 5 of the NATO Charter states: “An armed at- tack against one or more of them in Europe or North America will be con- sidered an attack against them all.” The first serious NATO military action so far invoked under Article 5 has been in the “out-of-area” Afghanistan. NATO was created to confront the decision to make the country once bombed into submission in 1999. Nei- Soviet Union during the Cold War. So- again a full-fledged member of the mil- ther the war in Iraq nor the one in viet President Mikhail Gorbachev, itary grouping. President Charles de Kosovo had the sanction of the United who played a key role in ending the Gaulle took France out of NATO’s mil- Nations Security Council. NATO’s role Cold War by disbanding the Warsaw itary command when the Cold War was pivotal in the creation of the Pact (the military alliance formed by was at its height. Critics of Sarkozy “mini-state” of Kosovo. The U.S. now Communist countries to counter NA- (and their number is growing by the has one of its biggest bases there. Un- TO) and allowing the Berlin Wall to be day) say that the decision marks the der U.S. supervision, NATO is slowly dismantled, was promised by Wash- end of an independent foreign policy but surely moving the battleground to ington that NATO too would be dis- for France. the South Caucasus and the Black Sea. banded as it had outlived the rationale Georgia has given U.S. and NATO for its creation. The threat from the RENEGING ON PROMISES forces full access to its Black Sea ports. Eastern Bloc, if there ever was one, has Successive U.S. administrations have Important NATO members such been non-existent since the collapse of reneged on the promises that were giv- as Germany and Italy, which are de- the Soviet Union in 1991. en to Moscow before the collapse of the pendent on Russia for energy supplies, Yet NATO has been expanding Berlin Wall. Instead, NATO has ag- have aired their misgivings about the even after the reason for its creation gressively expanded right up to Rus- course NATO is taking. Meanwhile, disappeared. During the Cold War, the sia’s doorstep by admitting former new East European members, such as alliance had 16 members. Today, it has Warsaw Pact members into the West- Poland and the Czech Republic, want 28 members, with more East and Cen- ern military alliance. The U.S. has used NATO to focus more on consolidating tral European countries eagerly wait- the opportunity provided by the de- its influence in Europe instead of fo- ing to sign up. France, which left mise of the Warsaw Pact to wage wars cussing on far away Afghanistan and NATO’s military structure in 1966, has of aggression in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The conservative Polish and now rejoined. Many Left parties as Somalia and in the heart of Europe. Czech governments are putting pres- well as influential sections of the Yugoslavia, which had resisted ab- sure on the U.S. to expand NATO fur- media in France are questioning the sorption into NATO, paid the price by ther by expediting the admission of timing of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s being first dismembered and then Ukraine and Georgia.

62 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

existence was the fear of the Soviet Union – the fear that superior conven- tional forces from the East would over- run Western Europe.

TURKEY CRITICAL OF U.S. Turkey, which was the last stop in Obama’s much ballyhooed tour of Eu- rope in April, has been critical of American leadership of the trans-At- lantic alliance. Though situated far away from the Atlantic coast, Turkey joined NATO in 1952 to help the U.S. militarily in the Korean War. The Turkish army is the second largest contingent in NATO after the U.S. army and has shed a lot of blood for causes dear to the U.S. The Turks had expected the rest of Europe to wel- come them with open arms. But they find that the doors of the European Union have been shut for them. The entry of a big Muslim nation into a “Christian club” has been virtually ve- toed by countries such as France and Germany. Now, to add insult to injury, NATO has gone ahead and chosen Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmus- The Kremlin was incensed with the as a retaliatory act on the part of Russia sen as its next secretary-general. Turk- Bush administration for its plans to to counter NATO expansion. The Ma- ish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip put up anti-ballistic missile (ABM) nas airbase was crucial to the U.S. air Erdogan objected to Rasmussen’s ap- systems in Poland and the Czech Re- force in its war in Afghanistan. pointment because of the way his go- public. Russia is already ringed with Earlier in the year, Russian Presi- vernment handled the controversy NATO military bases on its European dent Dmitry Medvedev envisaged the that erupted after scurrilous cartoons borders. The Obama administration, creation, along with six other former of the Prophet Muhammad were pub- however, is having second thoughts Soviet states, of a rapid reaction force lished in a Danish newspaper in 2006. about the proposal. Moscow had that would “be no weaker than similar The cartoons had sparked off violence threatened to take strong counter- forces of the North Atlantic Alliance”. in many capitals around the world. measures if Washington went ahead The force would operate under the Rasmussen’s right-wing coalition go- with its plans to build a missile shield auspices of the Collective Security vernment, which won power on an an- adjacent to its borders or expand NA- Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a mili- ti-immigrant platform, was far from TO into areas that it considers are tary alliance that Russia, Armenia, Be- apologetic about the cartoons. Instead, within its traditional “sphere of larus, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, it defended the newspaper and the car- influence”. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan formed in toonists by invoking the right to “free- The military humiliation of Geor- response to the eastward spread of dom of expression” of the media . gia by Russia late last year was a strong NATO. Professor Andrew Bacevic, an ex- message sent to the U.S. Russian Since the collapse of the Soviet pert on international relations at the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, speak- Union, many influential voices in Eu- University of Boston, recently opined ing at the NATO summit last year, said rope have called for an independent that the only way to save NATO was for that the “emergence of the powerful and greater military role for the conti- the U.S. to quit it. “The alliance has lost military bloc at our borders will be nent. Lord Ismay, the first secretary- its sense of purpose. The way to get it seen as a direct threat to Russia’s se- general of NATO, had said that the back is for the U.S. to withdraw and for curity”. The decision of the Kyrgyz go- organisation’s main goal “was to keep Europe to be responsible for its own vernment to eject the U.S. from its only the Soviets out, the Americans in, and defence,” he wrote in Los Angeles military base in Central Asia is viewed the Germans down”. NATO’s basis for Times. २

FRONTLINE 63 Environment MAY 8, 2009

Wetland or wasteland? The Vembanad lake, the second largest wetland in India, is in a state of

precipitous decline. BY SALLY DUNCAN

64 FRONTLINE A ,2009 8, MAY FRONTLINE 65 clgcltra othelake. to ecological threat the increase tourists houseboat relentlessly growingnumberof quietly andbe“ecotourists”.The rococo boats,todriftalong to comeKeralaandboardthe PEOPLE PAYSERIOUS money

RAMESH KANNAN MAY 8, 2009

ONE OF THE canals leading to the Vembanad lake at Varanad, near Cherthala in Alappuzha district, carrying effluents from a distillery. A 2004 picture. Fishermen watch fish stock dwindle as the lake ecosystem struggles with pollution in many forms. It has shrunk to one-third of its she is talking about! Furthermore, they use a well to draw drinking water, so why worry? original size in over a century and a As time elapses, a drought comes. The wells have dried up, and people are going to the river to find drinking water. Ah, but the river is polluted! The half and is a sink for pollutants water is not potable either in the river or when it flows into the lake. A crisis is born. The grandson, the brought in by six rivers. However, a grandmother and the community take a pledge to manage their river and their lake better in the future. conservation effort is on, involving A Bollywood movie? A parable? No, a puppet show. The puppets are crafted from recycled paper local communities and other by schoolchildren, and the highly topical show is scripted and performed by them for local commun- important stakeholders. ities and visiting audiences, for wetland festivals, and IN a convincing, grandmotherly voice, an elderly perhaps, eventually, for policymakers. They have a woman tells her uncaring grandson that he must message and a cause, and they have joined school- stop throwing rubbish into the river. This is pollu- based Wetlands Study Centres, organised by the tion, and it is bad for the river, she scolds him. But he Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Envi- does not listen – she is old and does not know what ronment (ATREE), to spread the word of conserva-

66 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 ATREE CERC, ALAPPUZHA THE SCHOOL-BASED WETLANDS Study Centres, organised by ATREE, spread the word of conservation in every way they can. Here, a workshop on butterflies. form a living fringe on the lake in every happens when you flush the toilet on direction. Iridescent paddyfields have this houseboat? colourfully dressed women planting The answer is complicated by sys- rice. Traditional fishing vessels ply the tem failure that is social, ecological, lake waters while their sun-baked crew economic and political. Without the skilfully and photogenically toss their children and their puppets, and all circular nets into the water. they represent, the lake might be Villages along the bunds and la- doomed simply by the relentless pres- keshores provide intimate scenes of sure on it from the 1.1 million people women timelessly beating clothes living around it, not to mention the against stones to get them clean. Aged hundreds of thousands of tourists ar- men languidly bathe on the stone steps riving each year. in the same shallows. Massed purple A great deal is at stake. The Vem- flowers across the water surface paint banad lake is the second largest wet-

JOHNEY THOMAS the lake golden-lilac at sunset, and land in India and the largest tropical large flocks of birds of many varieties wetland ecosystem on the country’s fill the hungry binoculars of tourists. southwestern coast. It is recognised as Children frolic and swim and shriek a Ramsar site – a wetland of global along the banks. It is all there, just like importance as defined by the Conven- tion in every way they can: puppet in the movies. tion on Wetlands, signed in Ramsar, shows, posters, dance, poetry, singing, But let us roll focus to the close-up, Iran, in 1971, and joined by India in costumed festival performances, a spe- and there are plastic bottles everywh- 1981. Like many other permanent cial magazine, a video documentary. ere you look. Other plastic and solid backwaters, its environmental condi- Perhaps a movie is not far behind. The rubbish lines every shore and canal, tion is in a state of precipitous decline, light of excitement and commitment regularly clogging motorboat engines. representing a looming ecosystem in their young eyes may be the bright- The water is more like slurry – you crisis. est part of the future of the Vembanad cannot see deeper than the first inch or “The functions performed by such lake in Kerala. two. That purple flower is invasive wa- wetlands in biodiversity conservation, The view of the Vembanad lake ter hyacinth, carpeting the lake and flood control, livelihood assistance to from a five-bedroom houseboat with a choking it of the oxygen it needs. The the millions of people living around swimming pool has to be beautiful. circular fishing nets frequently come them, watershed services and services People pay serious money to come to up empty. The coconut fronds are yel- to the industries in the region are in- Kerala and board these rococo boats, lowed with disease. The paddyfields valuable,” says Dr. Latha Bhaskar, pro- to drift along quietly and be “ecotou- bleed their chemical fertilizers and ject coordinator for ATREE’s small rists”, to be fed, housed, and conducted herbicides freely. We should not watch Vembanad team. “However, this fer- aquatically in peace, then to go home too closely as the old man “bathes” by tile region, which was once called the and tell their friends about their exotic the shore – and people drink this wa- rice bowl of Kerala, is now known as Indian experience. Coconut palms ter. Come to think of it, what exactly the waste bowl of Kerala, and today we

FRONTLINE 67 MAY 8, 2009

uing absence of solid waste treatment facilities, and the recipe for an ecolog- ical disaster is complete. “Coastal backwaters and inland water bodies have traditionally been economically efficient systems. Now they are fast declining owing to im- proper management, over-exploita- tion, and a lack of care and awareness,” says Dr. D.R. Priyadarsanan, Fellow Scientist at ATREE. “Traditional live- lihoods such as farming and fishing are under heavy pressure from ecological change and strong competition from other sources of support. In particular, the recent growth of the tourism in- dustry has been exponential, opening import our rice from neighbouring up new areas of livelihood opportuni- States. The lake is a sink for pollutants ties. But the lack of vision and orga- brought by the six rivers draining into nised planning is clearly visible,” he it, and human-induced changes have said. led to the depletion of fish and other resources.” WETLANDS POLICY But it is not just the ecological fail- The state of Indian wetlands policy ure that is creating the crisis. As the leaves a lot to be desired, according to a extent of the lake shrinks and its qual- variety of researchers. Although the ity deteriorates, conflict inevitably most recent environmental legislation arises between the stakeholders. Vem- begins to turn this situation around, banad is second only to the Arabian there remains jurisdictional overlap Sea in terms of supporting livelihood and non-recognition of wetlands as a activities. separate ecosystem, to complicate the The lake has been reduced to 37 wetland context. “No legislation on per cent of its original size during the land or forest in India legally defines last century and a half, mostly by recla- wetlands, and there are no special en- mation of fertile land at its perimeter actments for their conservation,” ex- for farming. Farmers make their living plains Priyadarsanan. “Wetland on land that is below sea level, so keep- protection has to depend upon the le- ing salt water out of their agricultural gal status of spaces or localities of systems is crucial. which they are a part.” But fishermen watch fish stock In Kerala, that legal status does not THE INVASIVE WATER dwindle as the lake ecosystem strug- exist. A draft Regulatory Framework hyacinth carpets the gles with pollution in many forms, exa- for Wetlands Conservation has been lake, choking it of cerbated by today’s limited flushing of produced by the Central government, oxygen. (Right) Children the system by salt water. A barrage but, according to a report in The Hin- with plastic waste built in the 1950s remains closed dur- du on February 9, 2009, the Kerala collected after a boat ing summer. This has meant that ma- government recently conveyed its ob- race on the lake. Plastic rine fish and prawns cannot migrate jections to the framework, which was and solid rubbish lines upstream, weed growth has increased, notified by the Ministry of Environ- every shore and canal, and natural flushing of pollutants has ment and Forests. regularly clogging been radically restricted. Thus, the in- Kerala Minister for Water Re- motorboat engines. terests of farmers and fishermen are sources N.K. Premachandran said the diametrically opposed. Add to this the State had approved a report terming relentlessly growing number of house- the proposed framework an infringe- boat tourists served by hundreds of ment on the rights of the State on its unregistered houseboats, stagnant wa- water resources. “We accept the need ters in surrounding canals, the contin- for a regulatory mechanism for wet-

68 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 D.R. PRIYADARSANAN ATREE CERC, ALAPPUZHA

FRONTLINE 69 MAY 8, 2009

lands. But taking into account the local this vast wetland, the recent engage- ● Enable local communities to partici- environment and other factors, we ment of ATREE has focussed on devel- pate in the design and implementation have requested the Ministry to bring oping the capacity of local of the management plan. out a broad National Wetland Policy communities around Vembanad to ● Facilitate discussions on long-term, and guidelines, based on which each take care of their future, according to effective and inclusive institutional State can prepare its own legal frame- Priyadarsanan. mechanisms involving government work,” the Minister said. The Community Environmental agencies, academia, non-governmen- [The Minister said the complex Resource Centre (CERC), established tal organisations (NGOs) and local nature of wetlands in Kerala would in Alappuzha, has a fully integrated community groups. make their management a difficult mission, addressing interacting “We have recognised that the most proposition under the system pro- themes in four areas: effective approach to influencing pol- posed by the Centre. “Water being a ● Assess the institutional, policy and icy is to work through the panchayats, State subject, the proposal to bring information gaps that adversely affect where the voices of stakeholders have wetlands listed in category A under a the conservation and sustainable use the greatest chance to be heard above Central Wetlands Conservation Com- of Vembanad wetlands. the noise of conflict,” says Latha Bhas- mittee is questionable. It will force the ● Increase environmental awareness kar. Developing the required trust is State to relinquish administrative con- among various stakeholders and en- time-consuming but crucial, and the trol over major water bodies.”] hance their capacity to address conser- local CERC team has addressed this Recognising the vulnerable state of vation issues pertaining to wetlands. challenge in multiple ways.

70 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

Six rivers (Periyar, Muvattupuzha, duction and also mitigating flood eries and reducing pollution. Knowing Meenachil, Manimala, Pamba and damage. that no single action can provide a so- Achenkovil) flow into the Vembanad The Thanneermukkam barrage, lution, the ATREE team has designed wetland system, which covers 2,195 built in the 1950s to control flooding a five-part approach to its collabora- square kilometres. The area is a com- and salinity and to enable farming tive work at Vembanad. plex network of waterways: coastal during the wet season, has succeeded The most developed is Jalapaa- backwaters, lagoons, marshes, man- in its primary purpose but has also dom, or Lessons on Water, designed groves, and reclaimed lands, inter- stood in the way of the natural flushing for students in the region. “The pro- laced with natural and man-made action of salt water through the sys- gramme aims to create awareness and channels. Much of the reclaimed land tem, which has a direct impact on the advocacy among the students about lies below sea level, making it a reci- health of fisheries. Irrigation schemes the ecological functions of the lake’s pient of nutrient-rich alluvial soil assist in the movement of agricultural ecosystem and about the socio-cultu- when flood waters recede. chemicals into the estuarine system. ral and economic significance of wet- Extensive areas of the lagoon have Urban solid waste systems drain di- lands,” explains T.D. Jojo, ATREE also been subjected to large-scale rectly into the lake in many cases, and programme officer in charge of the Ja- draining, filling, and other develop- water-borne pathogens affect humans lapaadom curriculum and school liais- ment activities. Most of these have and fish alike. The lake has been re- ons. The puppet shows, which he has been sponsored by the government ferred to as “a bowl of agrochemicals helped develop, are part of the conser- with the goal of increasing food pro- and faecal matter”. Historically, the vation education effort, implemented JOHNEY THOMAS lake system was known to host more in 44 schools around the lake. Wetland than 150 species of fish, but recent fish Study Centres are established in all counts have established numbers clos- participating schools, each with 60 to er to 60 species. 80 active members and two coordinat- The list of wetland challenges in- ing teachers. Diverse activities in and cludes the deforestation of surround- beyond the schools engage the chil- ing river basins, resulting in more than dren at many levels: performance, re- 30 million tonnes of sediment being search methods, creative thinking, and added to the lake during flooding. Sed- hope for the future. imentation is made worse by the re- Learning data collection methods moval of all but remnant stands of feeds directly into another component mangroves, the classic natural filters of of ATREE’s approach: Jaladarpanam wetlands. Industrial dredging disturbs – a participatory programme for water the clam shell fishery on the lake bot- quality monitoring. Latha Bhaskar ex- tom, and the retting of coconut husk plains that constant monitoring of wa- on the shoreline eliminates prawn and ter quality is essential for a better marine fish nurseries. understanding of the condition of the The result of all these human in- lake, helping the stakeholders as well terventions is a grossly altered wetland as policymakers recognise its steady system, with the Vembanad lagoon qualitative deterioration, and thus now one-third of its former size, and working towards improved manage- half of its former depth, and the wet- ment practices. land system capable of holding just “The growing population pressure, one-quarter of its former capacity. migration, emergence of new stake- Efforts to make more flexible and holders, private dominance of re- adaptable the operations of the Than- source allocation and use, and the neermukkam barrage will probably granting of rights by the government improve the wetland flushing func- to use the water body without evaluat- tion, thereby enhancing estuarine fish- ing its cumulative impact/carrying ca- pacity of the wetland and its biota, HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE around the have all led to uncontrolled lake con- lake collect clams for a living. tamination,” she explains. Industrial dredging disturbs the clam The concept behind Jaladarpanam shell fishery on the lake bottom, and is that if people have a stake in manag- the retting of coconut husk on the ing common property, conservation shoreline eliminates prawn and initiatives are likely to show greater marine fish nurseries. success, especially when government

FRONTLINE 71 MAY 8, 2009 ATREE CERC, ALAPPUZHA ATREE’S JALADARPANAM PROGRAMME has many conservation initiatives that include stakeholders such as farmer and fishermen cooperatives, youth clubs, clam collectors, women’s self-help groups, and educational institutions. Here, a self-help group meeting in progress. intervention is failing or is absent. by the end of the meeting, plans are in vant policy development, is the final Caretaker teams around the lake in- place to work with ATREE to set up a component of ATREE’s current suite clude farmer and fishermen cooper- series of five sanctuaries that can pro- of projects. There are already many atives, youth clubs, clam collectors, vide experimental findings on their ef- entities collecting ecological and so- women’s self-help groups, and educa- fects. “Our objective with such cio-economic data about Vembanad’s tional institutions. capacity-building activities is to help systems, but many potential users of An ATREE-supported postgradu- stakeholders participate in efficient that information neither know it exists ate student project with the St. Albert’s and sustainable management of the nor have practical access to it. College, Ernakulam, will map the Vembanad socio-economic system, by The proposed system will include a magnitude and diversity of microbial providing updated information on en- reference library, a website, Geograph- pathogens around the lake to track dis- vironmental quality, and also building ical Information Systems, and infor- ease vectors such as those of cholera local resource monitoring capacities,” mation CDs and will complement the and other intestinal ailments that says Deepak Dayanandan, ATREE education programme already under break out seasonally. The data collect- programme officer. way, right down to the grandmother ed by participants will contribute to a The interaction also improves their puppet and her recalcitrant grandson. publicly accessible comprehensive da- collective understanding of legislation The pledge taken at the end of the tabase on water quality. Data available and feasible management options. puppet show says it all: “We the people through these sources are displayed on “The goal of a participatory approach of this village pledge that we will keep information boards set up in 14 basin is to recruit communities into the deci- all our water and wetland resources of stations around the lake and are also sion-making process and thus enable the village clean. We will strive to keep interpreted to the people through fo- participatory resource management it better and will defend any attempt to cus group meetings. For fishermen’s and wise use,” Deepak says. “We draw deform or pollute it. We promise to groups the data about water salinity in in diverse stakeholder groups to create pass it to the next generation in its the lake is valuable for intervening interactive learning forums that could pristine state.” २ with the opening and closure of the affect both education and policy.” Sally Duncan grew up on a farm Thanneermukkam barrage. “Our policy analysis is expected to in Australia, and is now policy highlight policy gaps both in terms of research director at the Institute for COLLECTIVE UNDERSTANDING insufficient regulatory provisions in Natural Resources at Oregon State A gathering of 15 local fishermen, prevailing laws and legislation, and in University in the U.S. She is ATREE staff and several visitors fills a the lack of understanding of provisions currently working with ATREE as a small meeting room in Muhamma in themselves,” explains Latha Bhaskar. Visiting Fellow while fulfilling a Alappuzha. The fishermen want more A wetland conservation informa- Fulbright Environmental Leadership sanctuaries, differently designed, and tion system, designed to assist in rele- Fellowship.

72 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 books People’s economy

A quick appraisal of the working, achievements and problems of China’s

new economy. BY C.T. KURIEN

N the book under review, the au- was quite successful. Reviewing the thor presents a concise and easily performance of China’s new economy readable account of the pheno- up to the recent years, Bhaumik states menal transformation of the Chi- that it is the people of China who built nese economy, within a short it up with the state giving them direc- Iperiod of half a century or so, from a tion and support. Mao, then, is the stagnant, if not decaying, feudal set-up founder of both the People’s Republic to the most rapidly growing economy of China and the People’s Economy of in the world. China’s economic order China. today is officially designated as a so- The main theme of the book is the cialist market economy. There may be changes in the Chinese economy in the differences of opinion about whether post-Mao period; in fact, the distinct the emphasis is on “socialist” or “mar- change in direction that Deng Xiaop- ket”, but the undisputed fact, as the ing brought about after he consolidat- author points out, is that there is no ed power following the two-year power other country in the recorded history struggle in the wake of Mao’s death in of the world economy that has been 1976. Deng assumed leadership under able to sustain an almost uninterrupt- difficult circumstances. ed phase of high growth of close to 10 Within the country and the party, per cent per annum and for well over a he had to fight against Mao loyalists, quarter of a century. including Mao’s widow and Hua Guo- For those who are not familiar with fong, the Chairman of the party, for a old China’s early economic history, break with the past. The chaos result- T.K. Bhaumik provides a chapter at IN REVIEW ing from the Cultural Revolution had the outset dealing with its early phase Old China’s New Economy: to be contained and cleared up. In from about 1700 B.C. until the estab- The Conquest by a Billion terms of China’s relationship with the lishment of the People’s Republic of Paupers by T.K. Bhaumik; rest of the world, the Treaty of Friend- China in 1949. The treatment is short – Sage Publications, 2009; ship with the Soviet Union had ended just 25 pages – and admittedly sketchy. pages xxxiii + 294, Rs.350. and diplomatic relationship with the Even Chapter Two, dealing with United States had been established. Mao Zedong’s China (1949–1976), is There was the global oil crisis of 1978- brief. Mao’s economic policies had for instance. But Mao had taken over a 79 and most of the Western economies come in for a great deal of criticism not dilapidated economy that had suffered were experiencing recession. only from his enemies but also from long decades of neglect, foreign ag- In this situation, Deng found the the then leaders of the Soviet Union, gression and civil war. His first task opportunity to bring about radical who were eager to see him follow what was to get hold of the situation and changes in economic policies. One of they had done. After his death, some of initiate a process of long-term recon- his daring decisions was to open up the his close associates turned against struction and rejuvenation. He paid Chinese economy to external influen- many of his pet policies. Surely he had attention foremost to letting the mass- ces, both in terms of trade and more so made mistakes – the Great Leap For- es understand that it was their effort in terms of capital inflow. In turn, it ward (1958-62), which fumbled into and hard work that would give them necessitated a greater role internally the Great Famine of the early 1960s, sustenance and security. In this task he for money and markets. But markets

FRONTLINE 73 MAY 8, 2009

would function only if people were al- policy fitted in well against this back- and credit institutions; carrying out lowed to make use of them, to trade, to ground. China took advantage of the financial and currency reforms; tuning make profits and become rich. Wheth- problems of the Western capitalist up the economy to international re- er such proclivities were compatible economies of the late 1970s and early quirements, particularly after the with the socialist ideology and the 1980s and the eagerness of global cap- country’s formal entry in 2001 into the sense of community and equality that ital to move into new territories to al- World Trade Organisation (WTO); had been emphasised so far immedi- low foreign capital to come in for direct and much more. The distinctive fea- ately became major issues. Deng deftly investment, build foreign exchange re- ture of China’s new economy that is handled them. New slogans such as serves, and step up international trade. still taking shape is that all these mat- “To become rich is glorious” were in- Initially at least, a “dual economy” was ters are being deliberately thought troduced and popularised. deliberately set up. The bulk of the through. China is showing that a so- And to allow human instincts to economy, as described above, consti- cialist market economy does not just have their legitimate role within a ba- tuted the domestic sector and only se- leave it to the market and that a market sically socialist system, the Household lected areas of the coastline were economy’s concern is not merely to Responsibility System (HRS) was in- brought under the regime of foreign “get prices right”. troduced. According to it, households capital, with very little contacts be- Bhaumik devotes the main part of could lease land for five to 15 years tween the two segments of the national the book (Chapters Five to Eight on from the collectives, and with the help economy. Later on, this too would cre- pages 115 to 230) on how these issues of family labour, produce what they ate problems, but at the time it was have been handled. The treatment is liked and sell the produce at market done, it was considered the most ap- simple and well organised. Not even a price, subject only to a quota to be propriate strategy. summary is attempted here. But the given to the collective and the state. following passage may give an idea of This had the desired effect, and grain PARTY IN CONTROL what the Chinese were able to achieve production increased from 304 mil- By early 1990, China was ready to spell over a short period of a little over a lion tonnes in 1978 to 390 MT in 1988, out its long-term objective. At the 14th quarter of a century: “In 1978, China though there was a fall in the cultivat- Party Congress in September 1992, it had an impoverished, and, if one may ed area. There was also substantial di- was resolved that the goal of economic say so, autarkic socialist economy, versification of productive activity – policy would be the “Socialist Market wherein over 950 million people pro- into dairying, poultry, piggery and Economy”. But it was not to be a re- duced a gross domestic product (GDP) fishing – in the rural areas and a conse- form to “Leave it to the Market” as had of USD 215 billion and more than 43 quent increase in exchange and mar- happened in most of the erstwhile so- per cent lived in absolute poverty. In keting. cialist countries of Europe, or as en- 2005, 1.3 billion Chinese people had a More important, perhaps, was the thusiastically canvassed for a while per capita GDP of over USD 1,700, an stimulus given to non-agricultural ac- even in India. It was made clear that eightfold increase over 1978. The size tivities. Many new township and vil- the party would still be in command, of the real economy in 2005 (at USD lage enterprises (TVEs) emerged determining the character and nature 2.2 trillion) was more than ten times producing primarily light consumer of the transition to a market economy. the size in 1978. On top of this the goods. The production processes were In 1998, it was clarified that the thrust economy grew by 10.7 per cent in not particularly modern or even effi- areas of the transition would be a rule- 2006, and pushed the GDP to over cient from a purely technological an- based system ensuring a level-playing USD 2.4 trillion and per capita GDP gle, but they unleashed the field, clarity on property rights and ow- exceeded USD 1,800.” Phenomenal entrepreneurial spirit and ensured nership, and building of market-sup- indeed! that the growth of the economy was porting institutions. That transition labour-intensive and employment- under the leadership of the party is still ACHIEVEMENTS AND generating. Soon problems relating to going on. NEW PROBLEMS the TVEs would become contested ec- To be more specific, that transition But this unprecedented achievement onomic issues, but China, at that phase has involved rationalising the vast in human history has given rise to new in its economic evolution, found a way body of state-owned enterprises problems also. In order to appreciate to reduce poverty and enable people, (SOEs) and making them responsive and evaluate these problems, it is im- especially in the rural areas, to enjoy to market signals; establishing the portant to take note of a comment that the comforts of rising incomes and links between the SOEs and the large Bhaumik makes: “Actually, there are consumption. This emphasis on rural number of private enterprises that several ‘Chinas’ within the booming development also strengthened the were springing up; dealing with the national economy.” Several diverse decentralisation of administrative and problems of open unemployment re- Chinas, one must add. Although China fiscal systems. sulting from the rationalisation of the now is more under a central authority The first phase of the open-door enterprises; building up of banking than ever before, it is a fact that its

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that situation was to have selective high growth resulting in inequalities. The Eleventh Plan (2006-2010) has been attempting broad-based high growth and remained substantially successful until the global recession made its adverse effect felt on the Chi- nese economy from 2008 onward.

CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGIES There are other growth-related prob- lems too. Technological upgradation is one among them. Those who engage in productive activity for survival do not bother much about the technology they utilise: they hold on to what they are used to or what is readily available. But a modernising economy aiming at high technologies and international competition must make intelligent choices about technology. New tech- nologies have started flowing into Chi- na after it opened up. But are they the

THE HINDU PHOTO LIBRARY most suited for China? Already China’s MAO ZEDONG (LEFT) with Deng Xiaoping. “Throughout the process of growth is proving to be extensive in the economic transition the Chinese Communist Party has demonstrated its consumption of natural resources, unique ability to manage various challenges entirely on its own.” leading to environmental degradation. Again, those at the helm of affairs are economy is still “a bunch of disjointed those who have been incorporated into quite conscious of these issues. A provincial economies”. The provincial the technologically advanced manu- Green National Accounting Study has and local administrations retain a facturing activities have considerably been launched and since 2006 there great deal of autonomy. The physical improved their earnings and living has been a substantial increase in the diversity makes this almost inevitable. conditions, many are becoming unem- allocation for research and develop- Added to it is the fact that economic ployed with little to fall back on. ment (R&D). activity is now under different spon- Rural-urban differentials and China’s economic relationship sorships – many are still state-owned, housing also show glaring disparities. with the rest of the world also poses but there has been a rapid growth of Above all, income inequalities have be- new problems. In the initial stages of privately owned enterprises during the come embarrassingly conspicuous. As economic reconstruction, China had past three decades while many old col- many as 300 million Chinese just no intention of becoming a major lective and cooperative units continue. manage to survive; of them 130-140 player in the global economy. Indeed, Then there are the emerging modern million survive on $0.55 a day, points for long China remained a closed econ- corporations, including the multina- out Bhaumik. The bottom 10 per cent, omy. And when it opened up, an at- tionals. These production units have accounting for only 1.8 per cent of the tempt was made to insulate the different rules of the game, though in- total consumption expenditure, had a domestic economy as much as possi- creasingly they all come under the laws per capita expenditure of about $149. ble. For instance, foreign banks were of the market. Against this, the top 10 per cent of the not allowed to do business in domestic Under these conditions, rapid population, with a share of 33.1 per currency, and their operations were growth has led to an increase in dis- cent, enjoyed an annual per capita confined to the new special economic parities. What in an aggregate sense is consumption expenditure of $2,750. zones that were set up, that is, essen- referred to as the “growth of the na- However, this structure was not totally tially to finance import and export tional economy” has been substantially unanticipated. transactions. confined to the coastal regions and to If during the first phase of the Foreign direct investments (FDIs) industrial and financial activity, while transformation of the economy Mao were heavily controlled too. Things be- large areas of the interior and the aimed at equality at a low level, Deng gan to change when foreign capital be- north-west still hold on to livelihood and those who followed him were gan to flow into the country in bulk. By activities at rather low levels. While aware that the only way to move out of 2001, foreign exchange reserves con-

FRONTLINE 75 MAY 8, 2009 AFP FARMERS POLLINATE APRICOT blossoms in China’s Shanxi province. According to the Household Responsibility System, households could lease land from the collectives, and with the help of family labour, produce what they liked and sell it at the market price, subject only to a quota to be given to the collective and the state. stituted 17 per cent of the GDP, and by buy regionally and sell globally”, as the he adds. And, in China, for all practical 2005 it went over 40 per cent, that is, author puts it, piling up export sur- purposes, the Chinese Communist $770 per capita, about the highest in pluses with the U.S. and the European Party (CCP) is the state, and “through- the world. Foreign trade too picked up Union but having import surpluses out the process of economic transition phenomenally. Exports, for instance, from Japan, East Asian neighbours the CCP has demonstrated its unique increased from less than $10 billion in and the rest of the world. A matter of ability to manage various challenges 1978 to over $760 billion in 2005, concern for China and the global econ- entirely on its own”. Along with it is the while the exports/GDP ratio increased omy as a whole is whether China will fact that it was the people of China, from 5 to 35 per cent. retain its export thrust, and if it does, initially the liberated peasants in the It is no longer possible to insulate how the rest of the world will cope with rural areas, who began to walk the the domestic economy and economic it. In particular, China will have to be tough road to prosperity. “Hard work policies from global influences (as Chi- concerned about the very unbalanced is apparently an inbuilt quality of an na is learning now). One area where trade structure with the U.S. and Ja- average Chinese – male and female this is seen clearly is in terms of the pan which will have economic and po- alike,” says the author. “Driven by self- Chinese currency, the yuan. For do- litical ramifications. A further confidence, they believe that they can mestic reasons China is eager to main- significant fallout of high growth, mar- make a difference in their lives, if only tain a stable value of its currency in ketisation, and economic interactions they are allowed the scope to do so.” terms of leading global currencies, es- with external agencies has been the A country where the people know pecially the U.S. dollar. But the U.S., high level and rapid spread of corrup- that they are the ones who shape their into which Chinese exports are flowing tion. Contacts and influences have al- destiny and where there is a leadership and thus making the country indebted ways had a prominent role in Chinese that is alert and forward-looking will to China, has been exerting pressure to society and governance. Hard cash face many problems on its journey, but have free convertibility between the seems to be taking over their role now. it will also find ways to deal with them. two currencies, leading to an apprecia- Bhaumik’s concluding observa- For those who wish to have a quick tion of the yuan (which will reduce tions also deserve special attention. appraisal of the working, achieve- exports into the U.S.). China has resist- “China is a state-driven, state-man- ments and problems of China’s new ed this so far. aged market economy,” he says. “It is economy, I recommend Bhaumik’s At another level, “China tends to the state that is at the helm of affairs,” book. २

76 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 books/in brief Spies & diplomats

The volumes are a serious study of the world of spies and of outstanding

diplomats who shaped world history. BY A.G. NOORANI

HE line that divides diplo- assessments, a task for which diplo- BOOK FACTS macy and espionage has be- mats are better equipped. come blurred. Heads of These two volumes contain studies secret services have been of the creme de la creme of both the employed to conduct secret foreign and the intelligence services in Tdiplomacy with representatives of an- which the legendary Sir Fitzroy Ma- other country behind the back of the clean (1911-1996) won distinction. He ambassador stationed there. The Cen- served as a diplomat at the British Em- tral Intelligence Agency, the Research bassy in Moscow and as Winston and Analysis Wing, the Inter-Services Churchill’s trusted personal envoy and Intelligence, Mossad and the KGB are commander of the British Military known to have conducted such extra- Mission to Josip Broz Tito and his par- curricular activities. The advantages of tisans. He was dropped by parachute such excursions are obscure. RAW’s into German-occupied Yugoslavia, chief (“Sunil”) was sent on a mission to served in the Special Air Service (SAS) Colombo though India was represent- and was also involved with the Free ed by an able High Commissioner, J.N. French forces in Iran. He was one of Dixit. “Sunil” asked that the fact of his the inspirations for his friend Ian negotiations with Kittu, a senior Lib- Fleming’s James Bond. eration Tigers of Tamil Eelam leader, Nine Lives: True Spy Stories Fitzroy Maclean’s volume is a seri- “be not disclosed to anyone in the Indi- from Mata Hari to Kim Philby ous work, a quality that is not to be an High Commission”. by Fitzroy Maclean; Tauris overlooked by its riveting account of Rohan Gunaratna’s book Indian Parke Paperbacks; pages 341. the lives of nine most famous spies Intervention in Sri Lanka: The Role of from Mata Hari to Kim Philby, George India’s Intelligence Agencies may be Lonsdale and Oleg Penkovsky. Their tendentious in its analyses. But the motives varied from greed and the texts of documents he reproduces, no pleasure of betrayal to professional doubt with the help of persons in pow- pride and ideology. er, reveal that RAW participated in the Philby was one of the three Cam- conduct of Indian diplomacy to a wor- bridge spies besides Guy Burgess and rying degree. It apparently had even a Donald Maclean. His faith was unsha- “legal expert” in residence, who gave ken by Nikita Khruschev’s disclosures advice on Sri Lanka’s election register. on Stalin, and by Hungary and Cze- This is apart from another activity choslovakia. But by the late 1970s life which has ceased to be extra-curric- in Moscow was wearing him down. He ular. became disillusioned because his hosts Covert operations have come to be never trusted him and always kept him accepted as an integral part of the under watch. functions of the secret services. The The Dutch girl Mata Hari’s was the result is a debasement of diplomacy most tragic case. She was actually out and an impairment of the efficiency of Diplomacy Between the of her depth in espionage. France was the intelligence services. The spy ac- Wars: Five Diplomats and the gripped by a spy fever. She was execut- quires false notions and his masters Shaping of the Modern World ed though there was no substantial evi- come to rely on him not only for the by George W. Liebmann; dence against her. Richard Sorge was a intelligence he provides but also for his I.B. Tauris; pages 288. German devoted to Moscow. From To-

FRONTLINE 77 MAY 8, 2009

have averted the Cold War. He accu- rately predicted Stalin’s policies in the absence of such a pact. Rumbold’s first posting was in Cai- ro in 1891. He was the charge d’affaires in Berlin when the war broke out in 1914 and returned as Ambassador in 1928. He met Hitler for the first and last time on May 11, 1933, and was livid at what he was told. In 1936, as Vice- Chairman of the Royal Commission on Palestine, he interrogated Churchill, who had suppressed the publication of his own evidence. “Is it not unjust to the Arabs?” he asked Churchill apro- pos his partition plans. “The Arabs are the indigenous people,” he reminded the witness.

THE HINDU PHOTO ARCHIVES THE HINDU PHOTO ARCHIVES Bernstorff, born at the Russian Le- gation in London in 1862, was the Ger- THE DANCER AND spy Mata Hari. SIR HORACE RUMBOLD was the She was actually out of her depth in Vice-Chairman of the Royal man Ambassador to the U.S. during espionage. But France was gripped Commission on Palestine. “Is it not the First World War and did his best to by a spy fever and she was executed unjust to the Arabs?” he asked avert war between the two countries. though there was no substantial Winston Churchill apropos his He went into exile in Switzerland in evidence against her. partition plans. 1932. Sforza served as Italy’s post-war kyo he accurately warned, several mats who shaped events – Lewis Ein- Foreign Minister for five years and weeks in advance, of the German in- stein, an American; Sir Horace participated in negotiations on the vasion of the United Soviet Socialist Rumbold, himself the son of a diplo- North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Republics. Stalin dismissed his reports mat; Count Johana Bernstorff, Ger- He was a staunch advocate of Europe’s as offerings by “a brothel keeper”. man Ambassador to the U.S. during unity since the 1920s. His diplomatic The most hilarious is the profile of the First World War; Count Carlo approach was empirical. He wrote to “Cicero”. He was Elyeza Bazna, valet of Sforza, Italy’s Foreign Minister (1947- the young Henry Kissinger on his book the British Ambassador in Ankara 1951); and Ismet Inonu, Turkey’s first review: “I would venture to suggest during the Second World War, Sir Foreign Minister and Kamal Ataturk’s only this: less generalities and more Hughe Knatchbull-Hugessen. He had successor as its President. It is a work factual data.” acquired a taste for espionage. It was of considerable erudition. The diplo- Ismet Inonu proved more than a easy for him, in those relaxed gentle- matic successes and failures of the five match for Lord Curzon and Rumbold manly times, to film the Ambassador’s are carefully described. On February 8, as they negotiated the Lausanne Trea- papers and sell them to the Germans. 1942, Einstein urged a pact with Mos- ty (1923). He used the Russians with- They included papers on the Second cow on its post-war frontiers. It might out becoming dependent on them and Front. Cornelia, Secretary of his han- won remarkable territorial gain for dler in the German Embassy, whom he Turkey. He even used his deafness to courted, was an American spy recruit- Covert advantage. Curzon turned purple ed by her boyfriend. She went over to when, in reply to his reproach, Ismet the British. But it was Cicero’s clum- operations have Pasha said: “It is disgraceful and un- siness that betrayed him. He entered becoming of a human being to tease the Ambassador’s study – key in hand. come to be people for their natural disabilities.” He was not sacked; he resigned. Cicero Inonu kept Turkey out of the Second found that his collection of Bank of accepted as an World War. England notes was worth little. Most The author is abstemious in his were German forgeries. Spies seldom integral part of conclusions. But one fundamental had a happy end. This one deserves a emerges clearly: do not be too sure or film on his life. the functions of too zealous. Diplomacy is like garden- George W. Liebmann’s book is a ing, not mechanics. It places a premi- study of five outstandingly able diplo- secret services. um on patience. २

78 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 books/review Kashmir’s hero Sheikh Abdullah believed in secularism and distrusted the two-nation theory, but

short-sighted policies of the Indian political class alienated him. BY SHAKTI KAK

HAT is lately being re- On August 9, 1953, his government ferred to as the “first was dismissed and he was arrested. He family” of Jammu and was externed from Kashmir in 1971 Kashmir was not so and was allowed back only in 1972. He until two generations was again the Chief Minister of the ago.W Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah State from 1977 until his death in 1982. (1905-1982), the grandfather of Omar He was, however, at the centre of polit- Abdullah, the present Chief Minister ical developments whether in or out of of the State, came from a humble back- power. Called Sher-i-Kashmir affec- ground, led a difficult childhood, and tionately, he stayed a secularist until moved ahead in his personal and polit- the end. ical life by sheer hard work and prag- The Sheikh’s life was intertwined matism. with the politics of the State for nearly Ajit Bhattacharjea has done a com- half a century. He returned to Kashmir mendable biography of the Sheikh in 1930, after getting an M.Sc. degree which focusses on the political life of in chemistry from Aligarh Muslim the towering leader, who led a mass University. He wanted to go to En- movement in Kashmir in the 1930s gland for higher studies and applied and 1940s with a secular and progres- for a scholarship to the State govern- sive agenda. The Sheikh was the dom- ment. He was denied the scholarship inant political figure in the State for as he was 24 years old. He considered nearly half a century. His was an event- this yet another evidence of discrimi- ful political life: arrests, confinement, nation by the Maharaja. He then set- banishment, relegation to political IN REVIEW tled for a schoolteacher’s job. wilderness, and rise to the prime min- The Sheikh played a pioneering Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah: istership and chief ministership of the role in mobilising opinion against the Tragic Hero of Kashmir by State. In all, he spent nearly 17 years in oppression and discrimination of the Ajit Bhattacharjea; Roli prison. Dogra rulers in Kashmir in the earlier Books, 2008; pages 320, First, Maharaja Hari Singh arrest- decades of the 20th century. Before the Rs.395. ed him for “waging war” against the 1930s, the process of political mobil- state as he was engaged in a mass lieved, Nehru was complicit in his ar- isation in Kashmir was driven by com- struggle against the feudal order. In rest. He was incarcerated in the jails of munal identities: Kashmiri Pandits, 1953, when he was the Prime Minister Ooty (Udhagamandalam), Kodaika- Hindu Dogras, Kashmiri Muslims, all of the State, he was arrested again on nal, Udhampur and Kud. had separate associations to put for- the charges of carrying out “anti-na- There were pacts such as the Delhi ward their demands. These commu- tional” activities and conspiring for an Agreement with Nehru and the Kash- nity-based programmes laid emphasis independent Kashmir, which were mir Accord with , which on jobs, religious practices of individu- never proved. In this case, which came became reference points for negotia- al communities, and dealing with reli- to be called the “Kashmir Conspiracy”, tions on the extent of autonomy that gion-based discrimination. it was alleged that Abdullah was on the the Sheikh had envisaged for the State There were several types of protest verge of meeting a Pakistani spy in at the time of accession. He remained movements such as campaigns against Tangmarg. In the earlier instance of at the administrative helm of the State the Dogra rulers by the Gilgit and arrest, by Hari Singh, Jawaharlal Neh- from October 1947 to August 1953, Poonch principalities; protests by the ru supported the Sheikh’s cause and first as the Head of Emergency Admin- shawl weavers and the landless labour- worked towards getting him released. istration (until March 5, 1948) and lat- ers who were forced into beggary; con- In the latter instance, the Sheikh be- er as Prime Minister. flict over religious places; and

FRONTLINE 79 MAY 8, 2009

campaigns for increased participation tion and the right to work, among oth- Sheikh implemented land reforms, the of the Muslim community in the af- er progressive measures. landed class, both in Jammu and fairs of the state. All these spontaneous The most radical measure was the Kashmir, went against him. struggles eventually formalised into a abolition of landlordism and the dis- It was easy to colour this event as long-drawn struggle against the op- tribution of land to the tiller. He ar- communal since most of the landown- pressive rule of the Dogras. From gued that such a progressive agenda ing population was Hindu and the 1930, educated Muslims started de- could be implemented only by over- poor peasantry, who got the land, was bating issues that adversely impacted throwing the feudal order. The Quit Muslim. As anger against the distribu- their social and economic condition Kashmir slogan became a potent tion of land mounted, Nehru advised and sought to ameliorate it. As a result, movement, which kept large sections the Sheikh “to avoid provoking Jammu the “Reading Room Party”, a cell in of people from all faiths together dur- and Dogra sentiments in decisions Fatehkadal in Srinagar, was set up by ing the prolonged struggle. The Sheikh concerning the sequestration of excess these people with the Sheikh as the had to struggle against supporters of land and Hari Singh’s orchards” (page secretary. the Muslim Conference in Kashmir, 172). At a meeting in Jammu in June the Muslim League in the rest of India, The Sheikh was dismayed at the 1931, the Sheikh made his maiden and sectarian Hindu associations anti-Muslim riots that took place in speech explaining the reasons for the within and outside the State. Jammu in 1947-48. He held the Mah- backwardness of the Muslim commu- The affinity between the Sheikh araja responsible for the murder of nity. The dominant rhetoric of these and Nehru as well as between the Na- hundreds of Muslims. He often point- meetings was religious as the commu- tional Conference and the Indian Na- ed out that while he and his party nity felt threatened by the Hindu ruler tional Congress developed as the maintained communal harmony in and by the sectarian mobilisation of struggle against the Maharaja drew Kashmir, the Maharaja and his wife the Pandit community in Kashmir and support from the latter. At the Karachi incited communal violence in Jammu. the Hindus in Jammu. The attention session of the All India States People’s The Sheikh’s protests against the riots that these protest meetings received Conference in 1935, the Congress de- annoyed the Maharaja. Sardar Val- from Muslims outside the State led to clared that it would support the free- labhbhai Patel, the Home Minister, increased repression by the State dom movement of the people of the sympathised with the Maharaja and administration. princely states unlike the Muslim gave a communal turn to the state- League, which supported the rulers of ments made and the measures taken NATIONAL CONFERENCE the these states, including the Mah- by the Sheikh. The Sheikh’s contribution in changing araja of Kashmir. Mohammed Ali Jin- According to B.N. Mullick, the in- the direction and character of the nah condemned the Quit Kashmir telligence chief, Sardar Patel did not Muslim Conference, which was re- movement, while Nehru supported it. trust the Sheikh and maintained that named National Conference, is well The Congress accepted the Sheikh “[Abdullah’s] antipathy to the Mah- documented. The formation of the All as the true representative of the people araja was not really an antipathy to the India Jammu & Kashmir National of the princely state. Balraj Puri, the ruler as such, but to the Dogras in Conference in June 1939 under the writer and human rights activist, general and with the Dogras he identi- Sheikh’s leadership led to a transfor- points out that the Sheikh received fied the rest of the majority community mation in the thrust of the political loud applause when he declared at in India” (page 185). movement against the Dogra rule. The public meetings that Pakistan was an Muslim Conference was later revived enemy of Kashmir as it had tried to HINDUTVA MOBILISATION by Chaudhry Ghulam Abbas. He sup- enslave it through force, whereas India The mobilisation by Hindu hardliners ported the Maharaja in not aligning was its friend, and that the Indian Ar- against the special status of the State with the Indian Union at the time of my had come to defend its freedom. was spearheaded by the Praja Parishad Partition. The Sheikh was treated like a hero and supported by the Jan Sangh. The The political sagacity of the Sheikh by Nehru through the 1940s. He was agitation became a galvanising force is evident in the manner in which he considered a beacon of secular politics against the Sheikh. As the Praja Par- formalised the campaigns and pro- by Nehru and Gandhi in 1947. Accord- ishad started its campaign against the grammes of the party for mass mobil- ing to Bhattacharjea, Nehru and the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, isation. The Naya Kashmir Manifesto, Sheikh reinforced each other’s faith in Nehru described the agitation “as a as it became known, was adopted by the secular and progressive ideology. subversive movement of the most reac- the National Conference in August However, within five years, doubts tionary communal type”. 1945. about the Sheikh’s loyalty to India In another note to the Home Min- It had an inclusive charter for so- were raised and Nehru increasingly istry in January 1953, Nehru showed cial change with emphasis on equal gave in to the opinions of those op- that he was aware that “communal or- rights for women, the right to educa- posed to the Sheikh’s politics. As the ganisations like the Jan Sangh, RSS

80 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

something or take some step, which might make things worse” (page 174). Subsequent correspondence be- tween Nehru and the Sheikh indicates that Nehru had distanced himself from the Sheikh. In fact, the Sheikh was accused of delaying the imple- mentation of the Delhi Agreement. The bias had reached such proportions that Nehru accepted the suggestion to dismiss the Sheikh’s government on the pretext that he had lost the support of his Cabinet, and he was arrested on trumped-up charges. Commentators have termed this as the major rupture

THE HINDU PHOTO ARCHIVES in the faith and trust that the Sheikh SHEIKH ABDULLAH AND V.K. Krishna Menon in conversation at a meeting. had placed in Nehru. Political developments in India after Nehru’s death, the creation of Political developments in India af- Bangladesh, and the Simla Agreement made the Sheikh change his demand ter Nehru’s death, the creation of Ban- for a plebiscite to one on the extent of autonomy for the State. gladesh and the Simla Agreement made the Sheikh change his demand [Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh] and the lack of will on the part of Nehru to for a plebiscite to one on the extent of Akali Dal [would] create trouble in commit himself to his earlier promises autonomy for the State. He found it Delhi on the basis of the Jammu Par- of plebiscite and autonomy and his in- difficult to deal with Indira Gandhi, ishad agitation” (page 172). The de- ability to contain the campaign who wanted to strengthen the Con- mand for complete integration of the launched by the Hindu hardliners. Af- gress’ presence in the State. State with India by the Praja Parishad ter 1950, as forces opposed to him and On February 25, 1975, the Sheikh and the Jan Sangh was made on purely his progressive policies were consoli- was sworn in as Chief Minister of the communal grounds. dating their position, the Sheikh was State, after a gap of nearly 22 years. The Sheikh’s belief in a plebiscite reviled as “anti-national, pro-Pakistan Though from 1977 to 1980 he had and, pending that, the special status of and even communal” in the Indian some respite from Indira Gandhi’s the relationship of the State with India Parliament and the press (page 170). continuous attacks, he realised that was further strengthened by the in- With the former Maharaja’s son, the new formation at the Centre was tensity of the agitation led by the Praja Karan Singh, as the Sadar-i-Riyasat not favourable to his ideals of autono- Parishad, the Jan Sangh and the RSS. and Sardar Patel as the Home Minister my. The Hindutva elements of the Jan In his much-quoted speech at Ran- at the Centre, the Sheikh became a Sangh in the newly formed Janata Par- singhpura, he raised the issue of the victim of conspiracies to oust him from ty revived the “issue of closer integra- hold of communal forces on politics in his position of leadership. Mullick “im- tion with the Indian Union, while the country and the difficulty of the ported suspicion and a tinge of com- Home Minister Charan Singh even fa- Muslim-majority State to function ef- munalism into his interpretation of voured abrogation of Article 370” fectively under the increasingly com- Abdullah’s actions and speeches, even- (page 234). munal atmosphere. Hence he tually compiling the charges required Bhattacharjea’s biography of the advocated even more strongly the pro- to justify arresting the Prime Minister Sheikh emphasises his belief in sec- posal for greater autonomy for the of Jammu and Kashmir”(page 185). ularism and his distrust of the two- State. Bhattacharjea gives details of the nation theory. He had faith in Indian His proposals varied from com- Sheikh’s arrest at midnight on August secularism, which was amply articu- plete independence to United Nations 9, 1953, in Gulmarg. He highlights the lated in his speech to the Constituent trusteeship for 10 years to “detailed role played by Mullick and Sardar Pa- Assembly. It was the short-sighted district wise suggestions for separating tel in undermining the Sheikh’s posi- policies propagated and implemented an independent Kashmir from Jammu tion with the central political by the Indian political class that alie- and Ladakh that would remain with leadership. nated the Sheikh and made him at India. Kashmir would consist of Uri, Nehru made it clear that he times difficult to deal with. On the Titwal, Gurais, Zojila, Tragbal and the thought that the Sheikh was confused. whole, he stayed loyal to the demo- Jammu side of Ramban (Doda Dis- He wrote to Maulana Abul Kalam cratic and secular tradition, which he trict)” (page 174). Azad, “My fear is that Sheikh Sahib, in espoused in his earlier years of political What disheartened the Sheikh was his present state of mind, is likely to do mobilisation. २

FRONTLINE 81 Column MAY 8, 2009 Reset button The reset button was pressed, hit or punched into politics on a grand scale in the coverage of Obama’s victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus.

EMOANING “a danger- set button, and they both merrily ous drift in relations” be- pressed it in a photo-op. Her gag gift tween Russia and the was labelled in Russian as peregruzka, The English NATO (North Atlantic supposedly meaning “reset”, but ac- Treaty Organistion) na- tually meaning “overcharge” – in the Language Btions, Vice-President Joe Biden told a sense of “electrical overload”, not conclave on security policy in Munich, meaning “gouging the unsuspecting WILLIAM SAFIRE “To paraphrase President [Barack] consumer” – but the American mis- Obama, it’s time to press the reset translation gave the Russian diplomat what is the synonymy of start-overs? button.” a chance for a sly dig. (The word most Restart is the most plebeian; it is At the CIA (Central Intelligence likely should have been perezagruzka. the verb that describes what you do Agency) headquarters in Virginia less But an even better choice, I am in- when the engine of your car or lawn than two weeks later, on February 19, formed by Regina Maksutova, who mower stalls. Reboot, from boot, is Joe Biden paraphrased again: “The served 13 years at The Washington rooted in “to pull yourself up by your President has made it clear that he Post’s Moscow bureau, is perenastroi- bootstraps”; it is now applied to a ma- wants to hit the reset button on our ka.) Clinton’s usage, on top of those by chine, when repowered, that is de- relations with Russia.” Just short of Biden and Obama, repercussed in signed to bring itself to a state where it two weeks after that repeated indirect Moscow, which caused the Russian can again operate on its own. Reset has quotation, President Obama publicly President, Dmitri Medvedev, to say, a long, varied etymology ranging from embraced and extended the metaphor “The surprising term ‘reset’ really re- jewellery-making to a sense of larceny. attributed to him: “We’ve had a good flects the essence of the transforma- In current usage, all three verbs exchange between ourselves and the tions we would like to see.” refer to fixing a misbehaving machine Russians. I’ve said that we need to reset All this wild diplomatic resettle- or system by switching it off and on or reboot the relationship there.” ment caused The Washington Post co- again. But Obama said “reset or re- The reset button had been pressed, lumnist Anne Applebaum to write: boot”; is there a shade of difference hit or punched into politics on a grand “Press the reset button. Is there any between those two? Xeni Jardin of scale in world newspaper coverage of phrase more enticing in the modern boingboing.net says: “Reboot refers Obama’s upset victory over Senator lexicon? We all know what it means: specifically to hardware. Reset means Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Press the reset button, watch your returning to original or last-saved de- Democratic field in the 2008 Iowa computer reboot and presto. A nice, faults, possibly by restarting or reboot- Democratic caucus. On the eve of the clean screen appears, and you start ing.” New Hampshire primary, London’s again from scratch.... Unfortunately, it J.D. Biersdorfer, the technology Evening Standard reported, “She has is also a deeply misleading, even vapid, Question & Answer columnist for The tried to hit the reset button and radical- metaphor for diplomatic relations.” In New York Times, says: “I find reboot to ly change her strategy.” She adopted an era of do-overs and makeovers, be more oriented toward computers that figure of speech every time her since it is a software command with a campaign shifted gears, to no avail. whiff of modern tech-geek jargon Not surprising, then, on her first “The term about it. But reset, as in reset button – European tour as Secretary of State, that’s a nice, comforting physical Hillary Clinton told National Public ‘reset’ reflects switch you find on everything around Radio in Brussels that in discussions the house from electrical outlets to vid- with the Russians “we’re going to hit transformations eo-game consoles. Push that button, the reset button and start fresh”. She and everything is supposed to be all went so far as to present Russia’s For- we would like right. Everyone wants the magic but- eign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, with a ton.” २ red desk ornament representing a re- to see.” The New York Times Service

82 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Essay TIBET: A CASE FOR QUIET DIPLOMACY

The record of the Dalai Lama’s talks with Jawaharlal Nehru when they first met

after he left Tibet yields conclusions that are still relevant. BY A.G. NOORANI AFP SEPTEMBER 7, 1959: The Dalai Lama offering Jawaharlal Nehru a traditional Tibetan white sash when he visited the Prime Minister in New Delhi. Why does the Dalai Lama not try happy to be part of China. We just want dignity and respect.” True enough, that is not all that he said. He old-style diplomacy in quiet earnest, made, besides, some points in the debate between him and China, a debate that is sterile and rancorous, away from the public glare and reflecting distrust on both sides. But the crucial fun- damental that he accepted provides ground strong focussed on specifics, eschewing enough on which a settlement can be built provided that there is, on both sides, a will to settle. The time the hideous jargon of our times? has surely come to move forward and put the past behind. And eschewing trips abroad and Involved are three distinct but related issues – political, constitutional and administrative. China interviews to the media? has very legitimate concerns on its national unity. SO close, yet so far. That is how one feels on a The Dalai Lama has very legitimate concerns on close reading of the Dalai Lama’s interview to Tibet’s constitutional autonomy and on certain ad- Ananth Krishnan in The Hindu (April 1, 2009). He ministrative measures. said: “We are not asking for separation. We are The Dalai Lama can take a diplomatic initiative

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that will instil confidence politically. being published here for the first time. He can explicitly accept the Constitu- Nehru: The Prime Minister’s sympathies with tion of the People’s Republic of China his guest’s plight were evident. The as the basis for negotiations, its Sec- “Sympathy at soundness of the advice he gave the tion VI on “the organs of Self-Govern- Dalai Lama has been vindicated in the ment of National Autonomous Areas”. present for half century that has elapsed. Article 115 says: “The organs of The talks were held at Mussoorie self-government of autonomous re- Tibet cannot be (Uttarakhand) on April 24, 1959, and gions, prefectures and counties exer- lasted four hours, from 15.20 to 19.20 cise the functions and powers of local converted into hours, at one stretch without a break. organs of state as specified in Section V In the first half, Nehru listened care- of Chapter Three of the Constitution. help by any fully to the Dalai Lama’s account of the At the same time, they exercise the recent and immediate past and the Ti- power of autonomy within the limits of country.” betans’ fears and concerns for the fu- their authority as prescribed by the ture. Given the background, it is Constitution, the law of regional na- able its local government to fulfil that understandable that the Dalai Lama tional autonomy and other laws, and task. New legislation, even constitu- held that “they must gain complete in- implement the laws and policies of the tional amendment, should not be dependence and attain the real peace state in the light of the existing local ruled out to achieve these objectives which can only be held by the practice situation” (emphasis added once the Constitution and with it Chi- of religion”. He emphasised that “the throughout). na’s unity are put beyond all doubt. Tibetans were no longer so conserva- The Constitution was adopted on tive and wanted reforms to be carried December 4, 1982, replacing the ear- COURSE OF NEGOTIATIONS out but according to their own people’s lier one of 1950. “The law of regional Negotiations between Beijing and wishes”. national autonomy” envisaged by Arti- Dharamsala, begun since 1978, have From this point, the record, for ac- cle 115 can be negotiated anew. The followed a tortuous course unflatter- cess to which the writer is indebted to Constitution gives financial autonomy ing to both sides. Dawa Norbu, one of the Nehru Memorial and Museum Li- (Article 117) and powers in respect of the most distinguished of Tibetan brary in New Delhi, proceeds: “Inter- “economic development” (Article 118). scholars, who taught at the Jawaharlal rupting D.L., P.M. said emphatically: Article 119 says: “The organs of Nehru University in New Delhi and is, Let us be relevant. I agree with all this self-government of the national auton- sadly, no more, traced their course in conception of a new world, etc. I my- omous areas independently adminis- an article of scrupulous scholarship. self would like to see a new India, but ter educational, scientific, cultural, While critical of Beijing, he pinpointed these are only wishes and one does not public health and physical culture af- a good few mistakes and lapses by know whether I would actually live to fairs in their respective areas, protect Dharamsala in an erudite article entit- see it. We have to see the situation as it and cull through the cultural heritage led “China’s Dialogue with the Dalai is and understand realities. We un- of the nationalities and work for the Lama 1978-80; Prenegotiation Stage derstand about religion. If religion is development and flourishing of their or Dead End?” (Pacific Affairs; Fall really strong and dynamic it should be cultures.” 1991; pages 351-372). able to face up to a situation like this Under Article 120, organs of the The Dalai Lama’s aides published and if it is not able to do so, then there national autonomous areas can also in 1996 a collection of the correspond- is something radically wrong with it. organise “local public security forces” ence exchanged from 1981 to 1993 There are only two choices; either an to maintain law and order. Article 121 (Dharamsala and Beijing: Initiatives armed struggle in which case the party adds: “In performing their functions, and Correspondence). The Chinese with the bigger arms wins. The ex- the organs of self-government of the Embassy’s news bulletin, News from ample of the students and their nation- national autonomous areas, in accord- China, regularly publishes China’s ver- alist feeling is no doubt a good one and ance with the autonomy regulations of sion of the talks. There is need for a it goes to prove that you cannot convert the respective areas, employ the spo- full, independent and comprehensive a whole nation into anything unless ken and written language or languages record of the negotiations from 1978 to they are themselves convinced that it in common use in the locality.” Article 2009, by a non-governmental aca- would conform to their interests. 122 provides for financial and other demic institution. “P.M. continued: If one has to fight assistance to “the minority Meanwhile, the Dalai Lama might for anything one should choose one’s nationalities”. with advantage consult the record of weapons carefully – weapons which The Dalai Lama’s principal con- his talks with Jawaharlal Nehru when are to one’s own advantage and not to cern is preservation of Tibet’s culture, they first met after he left Tibet, 50 that of the enemy. Violence is alright if religion and autonomy enough to en- years ago. Extracts from the record are one can be equal or superior to the

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enemy in arms. One must also know required to improve their position. bring heaven to the people in India how to use violence in the case. I am Take India’s own case. We had a back- even if I wish it. The whole world can- not criticising but only analysing the ground of relative backwardness our- not bring freedom to Tibet unless the futures of the situation in Tibet. Spiri- selves and how hard the Indian people whole fabric of the Chinese state is de- tual efforts and physical force are two had to struggle before they actually stroyed. U.S.A., U.K., and others or different things. In an actual physical achieved Independence.” anybody else cannot do this at present. conflict the physical force that can be Nehru pointed out that “the choice D.L. should realise that in the present brought to play and its results will have is between recourse to arms or stand- context Tibet’s independence would to be taken into account. Something to ing up to the Chinese in frank talks in mean the complete break-up of the Chi- this effect I had spoken to the D.L. at direct manner. As regards help from nese state and it is not possible to envis- the time I met him during the Buddha India, undoubtedly there is a good deal age it as likely to happen. To defeat Jayanthi celebrations. Speaking prac- of sympathy for Tibet in this country. China is not easy. Only a world war, an tically and not philosophically, Tibet Undoubtedly, we do not want the Ti- atomic war can perhaps be the pre- became an economically and socially betan religion to be suppressed or sub- cursor of such a possibility. Can one backward country. Such a country is merged by the Chinese or by start a world war? Can India start a physically weak and a poor country communism. But exactly what do they world war? Let us talk of the present which cannot easily resist the force of a want us to do? We cannot go to war and not of the future and be more powerful country. To say ‘Now give us with China or Tibet and even that realistic.” a chance to become a strong country’ would not help Tibet? What else do D.L.: “Help is required for the pre- ignores the actual position. We cannot they expect us to do? Tibetans expect sent juncture. Since 20th March, the go on on that basis. In all such cases, the achieving of independence in the Chinese have been killing indiscrimi- the effort of the people themselves is long run. Let us face facts. One cannot nately and burning large numbers of K.V. PRASAD

POTALA PALACE, THE Dalai Lama’s former residence, in Lhasa, Tibet.

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people. Can’t this be stopped? How the D.L. look like a piece of merchan- in India has some consequences to In- can I stop it? How can I stop anything dise. This is an insulting way of dealing dia, to Tibet, to China and to the rest of from happening inside Tibet? There with His Holiness and it is clear that the world. In China it is immediately are killings by machine-gunning from these attempts were merely efforts to one of irritation and suspicion. D.L. the air. If there can be only a solution try to make as much money out of him being in India, keeps alive the question to this.” He added: “We do not have a as is possible. In America, there is no of Tibet in the mind of the world. Ti- speck of a desire to fight the Chinese real sympathy for Tibet. Chiang Kai- bet, as it were, cannot close up without violently for our independence. It was shek has no sympathy.… They all want news. It becomes a difficult thing to the Chinese who said that the Tibetans to exploit Tibet in their cold war with manage. The tendency of the Chinese started the fight but this is completely the Soviet Union.” authorities would be to crush Tibet as untrue.” Nehru continued: “As a practical soon as possible. Nobody can help. I Nehru: “It does not matter who question, what can we do about it? We cannot understand how the Khampas started the fight and there is no good are anxious to help but our capacity to can resist overwhelming Chinese complaining. Only old women com- help is very limited and the moment force? One should, therefore, not close plain! Physically it is not possible to we try to extend it, it would stop even the doors of settlement; otherwise, it fight on behalf of Tibet. Even such a that capacity. War was not possible. becomes a fight to the death. suggestion will harm them and their Cursing the Chinese was no alterna- “P.M. continued: I am glad that the cause. Sympathy at present for Tibet tive. It would only stop every possibil- D.L. issued a statement before coming cannot be converted into help by any ity of a peaceful settlement. P.M. here and not after reaching Mussoorie. country. D.L. should be under no illu- himself intended to keep very quiet This statement is also suspected by the sion and, therefore, should fashion his except when necessary in speaking in Chinese. In the main it covers all policy with reference to actuality. Gen. Parliament. His own advice would be points. P.M. then advised no more Chiang Kai-shek’s name is in mud and to let the present excitement go down so long statements. The only kind of an association with him would only that talks would be possible. The Chi- statements, if at all necessary, could tend to make the cause much more nese say India wants to grab Tibet and relate about peace and ending of fight- hopeless and likely to end in complete with this suspicion they suspect eve- ing in Tibet. An indication that despite failure. U.S.A., U.K. can do nothing. rything we say. P.M. was trying in all her sufferings Tibet had no quarrel Therefore, at the present moment if these few moments to explain some with the Chinese may be helpful. P.M. the D.L. reads newspapers he will find basic facts to the D.L. He asked for the deprecated the taking up of an attitude the anger of the Chinese against India. D.L.’s reactions to what he had already like ‘We must have independence or See for example the Panchen Lama’s said. nothing else’. This would not help, nor statement. We have gone to the limit of “D.L.: The Prime Minister has would the cursing of China help. Stress our efforts. It is true not much has been been kind enough to express the views on peace and stopping of fighting and done. Today we cannot even privately of India. D.L. agreed India should be killing will help in keeping the subject advise Chinese, because of this suspi- in the middle and try to help Tibet in the right place and level. P.M. then cion. The so-called help being given to through China. At the present juncture enquired whether D.L. thought this you would close all the doors to such the attempt should be to develop good approach was all right. help. D.L. would remember that P.M. relations between India and China so “D.L.: Judging the situation in Ti- had spoken about Hungary. The trou- as to find a solution to Tibet. They bet, this is correct. bles there aroused tremendous feel- cannot expect any military help from “P.M.: Both the Tibetan situation ings and sympathy, for hundreds of India knowing fully well the experi- and D.L.’s presence in India also war- Hungarians were shot down but they ence of Korea in the event of a conflict rant the adoption of such an attitude. could still not do anything except to developing on the basis of a cold war. For a month or six weeks there need help the refugees. Therefore, we have “P.M.: At the moment, our rela- not be any statements.” to consider all these things.” tions with China are bad. We have to The Dalai Lama said he “had cer- recover the lost ground. By threats to tainly no intention of embarrassing In- “NO REAL SYMPATHY China or condemnation of China we dia, since he did not want India’s FOR TIBET” do not recover such ground. On the relations with any other country to be Nehru then referred to the requests for other hand, we do not show any fear of at all adversely affected”. To this Neh- interviews with the D.L.: “The case of China or surrender to China’s ru responded: “It also comes in the way [Heinrich] Harrer [author of Seven strength. We have yet to maintain a settlement.” Also, he “strongly ad- Years in Tibet], who is known to D.L. good relations with China, a middle vised to Dalai Lama not to have too and who wants to see D.L. While there but difficult course. Does D.L. agree many dealings with the press”. was no objection in principle, the sug- with this? The record yields important con- gestion that he might be invited to “D.L.: Yes. clusions that are still relevant. (1) The Austria or to U.S.A., etc., would make “P.M.: The mere fact of D.L. living boundary dispute was not affected by

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ted to teach in various parts of Tibet (in acceptance of a Tibetan suggestion). On March 12, 1979, Deng met the Dalai Lama’s representatives in Beij- ing and said: “The Dalai Lama is wel- come to come back. He can go out again after his return.” The Dalai Lama wrote a letter to Deng Xiaoping on March 23, 1981, in which he said: “I agree with, and be- lieve in, the communist ideology which seeks the well-being of human beings in general and the proletariat in partic- ular, and in Lenin’s policy of equality of nationalities.” He had by then sent three fact-finding missions to Tibet. On July 28, 1981, Hu Yaobang transmitted through Thondup a five- point proposal. It envisaged the Dalai Lama’s return but “it is suggested that he not go to live in Tibet or hold local posts there”. Subject to this, he would “enjoy the same political status and living conditions” as in 1959. Hu was vice-president of the National People’s Congress and vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee. The Dalai Lama replied

CARL DE SOUZA/REUTERS that this made the problem a personal THE DALAI LAMA with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown at Lambeth issue. Palace in London on May 23, 2008. Clearly, the attempts to garner support in But he now embarked on a course the West, far from helping, have only hindered Tibet’s cause. which was most unwise and which rankles in the minds of China’s leaders the Dalai Lama’s flight from Lhasa, or was his elder brother Gyalo Thondup, to this day. He addressed the United Zhou Enlai would not have made a who speaks Mandarin fluently and States Congressional Human Rights conciliatory offer to Nehru in April whom the Chinese trusted. In Dha- Caucus in Washington, D.C., on Sep- 1960 when they met in New Delhi. The ramsala, opinion has been divided on tember 21, 1987, and put forth a “Five- two processes proceeded indepen- familiar lines – hawks, doves and noisy Point Peace Plan”. The parleys were dently of each other. However, once jays. He was distrusted by some Tibe- conducted by the United Front Work Sino-Indian relations deteriorated, tans precisely because he was trusted Department of the Central Committee the Tibet issue became a subject of by China. Devoted to his brother, of the Chinese Communist Party. Its debate, quite needlessly; (2) Nehru Thondup, one of the most accom- head, Yang Minfu, wrote to Thondup wanted settlement of both the Tibet plished diplomats one has met, was reminding him of its warning to the issue as well as the boundary dispute. only being realistic and sensible. Dalai Lama to “exercise the utmost He was, however, confused on the lat- Towards the end of 1978, Li Juisin, care”. Disturbances had broken out in ter as the events showed; (3) Nehru did director of Xinhua News Agency in Lhasa then. Yang wrote, “in the past, not exploit, and was dead against the Hong Kong, invited Thondup to visit ‘ultra leftist’ influences had crept into West exploiting, the Dalai Lama to China to discuss the Tibet issue, which our Tibet affairs. However, we admit- score points against China; and (4) he did with the Dalai Lama’s approval. ted the past mistakes and took steps to Nehru’s counsel against the military The Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping rectify the situation.” This elicited a option was as sound as his sympathy made three points in his meeting with reply on December 17, 1987. for the Tibetans was sincere. Thondup – “Tibet is a part of China”; On June 15, 1988, the Dalai Lama The record of the parleys since the Dalai Lama was free to send dele- put forth “The Strasbourg Proposal” to 1978 and of the Dalai Lama’s trips gations to Tibet to investigate the ac- the European Parliament. In Indian abroad shows how right Nehru was. tual conditions there; and 50 Tibetan lingo, “internationalisation” of the The Dalai Lama’s best representative teachers from India would be permit- Kashmir dispute is denounced. To

FRONTLINE 87 Essay MAY 8, 2009

China, all this smacked of “splittism”. rightly pointed out, on December 20, crete proposals, which can be part of The Dalai Lama proposed Tibet’s 1991, that “it is not a commonplace the future agenda. As a result an un- “association” with China, which would statement when he makes it on Indian derstanding was reached to continue be “responsible for Tibet’s [sic] foreign soil”. the formal round of discussions. A date policy”. He proposed talks: “A nego- In February 1990, this writer con- for the seventh round will be finalised tiating team...has been selected.” On fronted Michael C. Van Walt Van soon after mutual consultations.” September 23, 1988, the Chinese Em- Praag at a reception in Geneva and Three more rounds were held in bassy conveyed a “message to the re- asked him why, if he wished the Dalai 2008. The last was in November that presentative of the Dalai Lama in New Lama well, he allowed his own name to year. China sees the demand for “genu- Delhi”. It recalled that contacts be- be projected. There was no reply. By ine autonomy” as a euphemism for tween the two sides “have not been 1995, he vanished from Tibet’s radar. semi-independence. Acceptance of interrupted since 1979” and offered He surfaced later as an “adviser” to one China’s Constitution, with a draft law “direct dialogue with the Dalai Lama” of the parties in the parleys on the on Tibet’s autonomy within China, as any time, at any place subject to three Nagaland issue. suggested above, should dispel doubt reasonable conditions: “no foreigners The Strasbourg proposal was with- and distrust. should be involved”; the Kashag go- drawn on September 2, 1991. It should be clear to the Dalai La- vernment “in Dharamsala will not be A Tibetan delegation that visited ma that, just as Nehru had predicted, an interlocutor”; and the Strasbourg China in June 1992 was told: “As soon the West cannot and will not help him; proposal was unacceptable as imply- as His Holiness openly gives up the it will only exploit him. It is careful not ing Tibet’s independence. independence of Tibet, we are willing to offend China. His own public pro- to enter into negotiations even tomor- nouncements do not help either. Why OPPORTUNITY LOST row.” In other formulations, he was not try old-style diplomacy – in quiet On October 25, 1988, however, Tashi asked to give up “splittism”. Clearly, earnest, away from the public glare Wangdi, the Dalai Lama’s representa- the attempts to garner support in the and focussed on specifics, eschewing tive in Delhi, replied suggesting talks West, far from helping, only hindered the hideous jargon of our times? And in January 1989 in Geneva. But why Tibet’s cause. eschewing trips abroad and interviews did the Tibetans have to include “a to the media, print and electronic? foreigner” as “legal adviser” to the dele- Once the talks proceed in earnest, gation? He was one Michael C. Van The Dalai Lama issues of history will cease to loom Walt Van Praag, author of The Status large. It is, in any case, not fair to ask a of Tibet. Besides, Beijing complained told Newsweek party to accept one’s own historical that the delegation was composed of narrative. Kashmir, Nagas and Mani- “principal members of the Govern- in 1989:“I am puris have their own narratives. This ment-in-exile”. On both counts, Chi- writer is indebted to the distinguished na’s objection was justified. Also, the not demanding journalist M.S. Prabhakara for a copy proposal was made public before it re- of the rare book Constitutional & Le- ached Beijing. A promising opportuni- independence gal History of Manipur by M. Ibohal ty was lost. On March 8, 1989, China Singh (Samuron Lakpa, Mayal Lambi imposed martial law in Tibet. Wangdi for Tibet.” Law College, Samuron, 1986). Anyone proposed, on April 19, 1989, talks in who reads it will be struck by the dif- Hong Kong to “resolve the procedural The present round of talks began in ference in historical perceptions and issues”. Once again, it was instantly September 2002. The Tibetan dele- by the depth of the people’s feelings. made public. gation was led by Lodi G. Gyari. The Henry Kissinger makes a similar Map the distance between the rival second and third rounds were held in demand on Palestinians – they must positions and the tragedy becomes ap- May and September 2003. Remarka- not only accept Israel’s existence but parent. “I am not demanding indepen- bly, the fourth was held on June 30, also its narrative on the history of Pal- dence for Tibet,” the Dalai Lama told 2005, in the Chinese Embassy in estine. Once the issue of China’s sover- Newsweek on March 20, 1989. “Any Berne, Switzerland. The fifth followed eignty over Tibet is accepted by the issue is open for discussion except the in Beijing on February 15, 2006, while Dalai Lama, coupled with acceptance question of Tibetan independence,” the sixth was held in May 2008. On his of its Constitution, the issues of history Beijing said on March 6, 1989. Prime return to Dharamsala, Gyari said: “De- will be no obstacle. Minister Li Peng said in New Delhi on spite major differences on important And once its concerns for national December 13, 1991: “Except indepen- issues, both sides demonstrated a wil- security are met, China’s stature in the dence, which is not negotiable, all oth- lingness to seek common approaches world will rise higher still if it tackles er issues are open to negotiations.” in addressing the issues at hand. In the Tibet issue in a statesmanlike and Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao this regard, each side made some con- conciliatory manner. २

88 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Column CBI as political tool

The real issue is the CBI’s role in Indian politics; Jarnail Singh’s shoe is as relevant to the issue as a slogan shouted by agitators in Punjab or Delhi.

he facts are too well known happened in October 1984. The sheer to bear repetition. Much has injustice of it all: 2,000 people and been made of Jarnail Singh, more, brutally murdered for no reason a correspondent of Daily Ja- other than the fact that they belonged gran, and his “frustration” at to a particular community. And in the Tthe replies given by Home Minister P. 25 years that have followed, nothing Chidambaram to his questions. except commissions of inquiry. Much has been made of Chidam- Not one arrest, not one arraigned baram’s composure when the shoe was as guilty of mass slaughter. How flung at him – although Jarnail Singh quickly, in contrast, the case against later claimed that he actually threw it the rioters in Naroda Patiya was taken to one side of the Home Minister and up and the accused named, including a not directly at him – and then, after a serving Minister in the State govern- week of passionate demonstrations by ment who had to resign and was then the Shiromani Akali Dal and its sup- arrested. porters, of Sonia Gandhi’s “accep- Point of View It is a matter of shame for all the tance” of the decision of Jagdish Tytler governments that have been formed at and Sajjan Kumar to withdraw their GHOSE the Centre since then. And it is not as if candidature for the Lok Sabha elec- BHASKAR the killing was done furtively; not only tions. was there no attempt at concealment, But many magazines, newspapers to re-examine the entire case. The CBI there are stories that the police stood and television channels got it wrong. did so and, rather surprisingly, reit- and watched when Sikhs were being “Shoe Misses Chidambaram but hits erated its stand that there was no case killed. As they did at Naroda Patiya. Tytler”, was a headline in one new- against the two Congress leaders. Jarnail Singh has certainly much spaper and there were a number of to answer for. If he was attending the similar headlines and lead stories. The CONVENIENT TIMING press briefing as a journalist, he had no fact is that Jarnail Singh’s shoe was More surprising is the timing of the business giving vent to his personal about as relevant to the issue as a slo- report. It was conveniently presented anger. If he needed to do that, he gan shouted by the many agitators in before the filing of nominations to the should have gone to the streets and Punjab or in the streets of Delhi. seats for which both Tytler and Sajjan agitated, joined a political group or The real issue was the Central Bu- Kumar were candidates so that they done something more in consonance reau of Investigation (CBI) report to could say with complete confidence with his behaviour. His action has the magistrate’s court that no case that no criminal case was pending done journalism a terrible harm. Jour- could be made out about the involve- against them; nor was there any possi- nalism will survive, as it has always ment of Tytler or Sajjan Kumar in the bility of their being mentioned in any done, but he will never be trusted by riots that followed Indira Gandhi’s as- charge-sheet of any case to be any media group, nor indeed will he be sassination in which over 2,000 Sikhs presented. permitted to attend any press briefing were murdered. This conclusion of the CBI re-ig- or other such event unless he goes ba- The CBI had actually submitted nited the simmering anger against the refoot, and even then he will certainly such a report in November 2007. But two. They had, after all, stood for elec- be watched very carefully. when the eyewitness accounts of Jas- tion in 2004, and there were no ag- bir Singh and Surender Singh that Tyt- itations or angry demonstrations then. USING THE CBI ler had exhorted his followers to kill But the manner in which they were But this aberration apart, there is one Sikhs and burn a gurdwara were pre- exonerated by the prosecuting agency worrying issue that it has succeeded in sented to the court, it directed the CBI is what brought up the anger at what highlighting. That is the perceived use

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viraj Chauhan, is not going to be given the kind of trust that Manmohan Singh gets. He was either told and did not tell the Prime Minister the truth, or he was really not told. The CBI Director says that he told no one because this was a report the court wanted, and so it was submitted in a “routine” manner. Really? After the court had rejected the report and asked the CBI to consider the fresh evidence now available in formulating it? Fresh evidence that consisted of eyewitness accounts of two people who are staying in the United States be- cause they fear for their lives? Would a report disregarding these accounts – which the report has clearly done, or found some flaws in them – not have been even discussed with the Minister of State, and perhaps others, such as the Cabinet Secretary or the Secretary to the Prime Minister, before it was placed before the court? If for no other reason then at least because of the timing and the possible repercus- sions? It sounds most unlikely, and what is worse, it will be seen by many as an instance of clumsy lying in order to help the ruling party. This is what is so alarming. We declare to the entire world more loudly than is sometimes neces- sary that we are a sound, genuine de- mocracy, but then we engage in chipping away at the structures of the democratic system. Perhaps being more loyal than the king helps some people, but do they not see the dread- ful damage they are doing over a peri- od of time? If jobbery, intrigue and

PRAKASH SINGH/AFP lobbying become the manner in which this country is administered, how long SIKH PROTESTERS RAISE slogans against the CBI for having given a clean chit to Jagdish Tytler, outside the Karkardooma District Court in will our much vaunted democracy New Delhi on April 2. last? The remedy does not lie in the by a ruling party of the one investiga- is saying so, the statement will be ac- hands of the administrators, the CBI tive agency thought to be professional cepted as true by everyone except those Directors, the Cabinet Secretary and and objective in its work, the CBI. who have a different political agenda. others like them. If one or more of Would the CBI Director not have dis- But he also says that the Minister of them are indeed upright officers, they cussed the report before submitting it State in the Prime Minister’s Office will be replaced by more pliant ones. It to the court with someone in the politi- directly responsible for the working of is really something that has to be cal executive? the CBI did not know of the report. He looked at by the Prime Minister and by Manmohan Singh is an honour- has said so, clearly, because that is him alone. The remedy, such as it is, able man, and he says he was not con- what the Minister of State has told can come only from him, and from no sulted on this matter. Since it is he who him. And the Minister of State, Prith- one else, no one. २

90 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Interview Dealing with cancer

Interview with Elizabeth Blackburn, Professor of Biology and Physiology at the

University of California, San Francisco. BY R. RAMACHANDRAN

“Cancer cells suffer a variety of changes and they don’t listen to the signal that says [for example] that they are supposed to be in a certain part of the body but they migrate and metastasise and keep multiplying.” ELIZABETH H. BLACKBURN is the Morris Herzstein Endowed Professor of Biology and Physi- ology at the University of California, San Francisco. Her ground-breaking work involves the ends of eu- karyotic chromosomes, called telomeres, which serve as protective caps for the genetic information in cells. She is also credited with the discovery of the cell enzyme telomerase, which replenishes telo- meres. Her research has led her to demonstrate the significant role that telomeres and telomerase have in human health, in particular age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Elizabeth Blackburn was in India in February on a lecture tour as the featured speaker of the 2009 Cell-Press-TNQ India Distinguished Lecture Series, which included her talks on “Chromosome Ends and Disease and Human Health” in Bangalore, Hyd- erabad and New Delhi. Continuing with the excerpts from the interview she gave Frontline: The relationship of the immune system to telomere lengths and the consequent susceptibility to disease should be more dramatic in the case of people infected with the human immunodeficiency virus Series

This is the second part of a RAJEEV BHATT two-part article. ELIZABETH BLACKBURN GIVING a lecture in New Delhi on February 13.

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(HIV) or who have the acquired that we are testing is stress hormones, immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) which normally are up and down in where the immune system certain rhythms during the day. When deteriorates very rapidly. Should it someone is under chronic stress, those not be so? rhythms and those quantities are real- Yes. We are looking at that. There ly different and everything in your are these successfully treated AIDS pa- body is sort of bathed in different tients who have been on high activity amounts of stress hormones. If we take antiretroviral therapy [HAART] for the blood cells and look at them in the some years. Their lives have been lab, and ask what stress hormones do saved, and they have been kept going to telomerase, we certainly see that

for years on these drugs. The virus is K. MURALI KUMAR they modulate it. kept [at a] very low [level] although it Now we can use molecular tools to is never completely contained. And do ask, how does it do that? Those cell- you know what’s happening? It’s sort “The only way biology-type questions are, I think, of an epidemic. These [successfully quite answerable. And I already know treated HAART] individuals are now that a cancer the answer. It’s going to be inherently developing diseases that look like the complex, like every other set of signals diseases of the aged. For their age cell is going that cells get, because that is what ev- group, these people are getting more erybody has found with every other cardiovascular diseases, more demen- to be able to signalling system. Will that inform us a tia, more osteoarthritis, more renal whole lot? It might well because we’ll disease and a whole spectrum of dis- survive is try and see how much that is account- eases that are [making them] look as if ing for the actual effects inside a per- they are really old. to have son. I wonder if this is sort of a version When it is genetic, it is more se- of what happens to these disease sus- telomerase.” vere. If somebody has a genetic dis- ceptibilities in non-aged people. Will ease, things are difficult for them. They we see something in particular [with watching them like a hawk to make succumb to infections, and they do regard] to telomerase? We are starting sure that their levels don’t fall really show aging too; their hair goes grey some work now, collaborating with low. And actually their distribution of early, their skin is abnormal, finger- people who have been clinically in- telomerase, in particular in white nails and teeth are not normal, tissue volved with these patients for many blood cells, doesn’t look too off…it renewal is not going on well, they have years. They know thousands of these looks reasonable. But remember that digestive disorders. So they are prob- patients and suddenly they notice that they haven’t got AIDS yet and their ably also stressed. And that might just this is not anecdotal anymore. It really immune system hasn’t been destroyed compound the problem. Then the has become a pattern that is looking although it has certainly taken a hit. question is: How much do stress hor- like premature aging in the sense of So it is really interesting to try and mones modulate it? I don’t know. No their susceptibility to disease. So the understand what’s going on because one can replace the genes. But can thing to test is: Are their blood telo- the longer they can stay without going there be a modulation in some way meres running down faster than you on medication – they are HIV positive, that can perhaps bring it [the immune expect? there is nothing genetically special system] up to better levels? We have been looking at another about them, they are just people who group of HIV positive patients with are able to stay without getting AIDS – You mentioned in a lecture that collaborators who are clinicians. Their we then might be able to understand telomerase is not there just to patients have HIV but have not pro- what helps these people stave off AIDS accumulate DNA to the chromosome gressed to AIDS, but they are watching from developing, what keeps the im- ends, it has other functions in the cell them very carefully. And we have been mune system going as long as possible. as well. Now do you know of looking at their immune system’s telo- situations where it does perform the meres and telomerase. Of course, their Can you conceive of some biochemical other functions well but fails to [levels of] CD4 T-cells [a kind of im- pathway that could act on the replenish the telomeres? mune system cells] are very low, which telomerase to deplete its activity This is also new. Nobody has really is characteristic [of HIV infection] al- when the cause is genetic or stress- separated those out. Certain things though they are not falling so danger- related or some other external have been done in yeast, but it turns ously low that they are going to be factors? out that some of these other functions really susceptible to AIDS. So they are Certainly, yes. The obvious one that one can see in mammalian sys-

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tems, one doesn’t see any evidence of 90 per cent of the cells have a given them in yeast. Maybe it’s just because feature but this is quite unusual. yeast is a single-celled organism and We know that certain genetic path- doesn’t have the layers of extra com- ways that get unregulated in cancer plexity and functions that one finds in cells – which start with genes and then multicellular organisms. And so I can pathways of signalling that make these certainly imagine the situations that cancer cells just multiply and go to the you are talking about, but we don’t wrong places – and [there are] several really understand well what’s going on different ones. But there is this com- with telomerase…and [these] other monality which I find very curious. things that are happening…we call Eighty to 90 per cent is really high. them functions because, when we per- Now it’s not a 100 per cent. Some can- turb, we see changes in the cell that cer cells get by with low telomerase can’t be explained by telomere length [activity]. You know the exceptions maintenance effects. But how they are and those would be instructive to study working, we don’t know. but if you just look at the generality of human cancer cells it’s almost like a Now there is this other side of defining feature. So we have to take telomerase activity, namely, its role in notice of what cancers are telling you; cancerous cells, which proliferate we’ve got to learn something from this. because of uncontrolled telomerase And certainly the telomeres are main- activity, the opposite of what we have tained but what is revealing are these been talking about. other things. Cancer cells have a lot of other things that are really wrong with them, Do you see a kind of diagnostic and we should never forget that these technique based on telomere lengths are cells that have become deaf to all emerging to detect disease- the signals that the body sends out, proneness or onset? such as you can multiply a certain I could see that idea. But it’s a piece amount, you can be in a certain place of information in the whole clinical in the body, where to stay, where to picture [that] would be useful to move, and so on. Most cells get a bar- know. More than that, it would be real- rage of chemical messages from neigh- ly useful to know the rate of change. SCHEMATIC OF TELOMERASE But even 80-year-olds, I don’t think, bouring cells, from neighbouring action and its genetic have especially long telomeres as far as tissues, hormones, etc. Cancer cells inactivation in cancer cells. suffer a variety of changes and they there’s nothing wrong with them. So don’t listen to the signal that says [for anything, short. These other functions we don’t know how fast the rate is. example] that they are supposed to be that telomerase has seem to push can- How that would play out exactly, I am in a certain part of the body but they cer cells towards having properties not sure. In a way the information migrate and metastasise and keep that make them more malignant. would be very useful if you looked over multiplying. These other functions we don’t under- the trends. You can use that fact as So if you have a cell that is deaf to a stand at all but we see them when we long as you don’t jump to conclusions. signal that says stop multiplying and perturb just telomerase in a very tar- keeps multiplying, it will have chro- geted way. Though we know that diseases are mosomes that will get shorter and What’s remarkable is that if we caused by a whole lot of factors, do shorter and the only way that a cancer look at just the whole spectrum of hu- you see a kind of paradigm developing cell is going to be able to survive is to man cancers and we look at how much that would ultimately, perhaps in the have telomerase, which now has the telomerase activity there is in a tumour distant future, lead to a unidirectional ability to replenish those ever-shorten- sample, 80 to 90 per cent of the time telomerase-based approach for ing telomeres. And the funny thing there is a lot of telomerase activity rela- attacking disease? about cancer cells is not that they have tive to what’s going on in the normal You know part of me wants to say active telomerase but [that they] ac- cells where it’s much more closely reg- yes. That would be terrific, but you risk tually have a lot more than you think ulated and reasonable in amount. So hubris when you say something like they ought to have. Why so much? Es- what’s really interesting is telomerase that because you are then immediately pecially when their telomeres are not is a real favourite among cancer cells. proved wrong. But, as I said, because particularly long; they are actually, if There are very few things where 80 to so much evidence has come in a consis-

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tent fashion, this seems like a pretty When you bring telomerase RNA good attack on the problem. We see levels down by using a mechanism that [that] these environmental factors targets the RNA for destruction, the like chronic stress are obviously acting cells which were running on very high on telomerase and telomere lengths telomerase levels are now running on a through the immune system. We also lean diet of telomerase. They are still see [that] when people are dealing proliferating but they change their na- with their stress well, it is correlating ture. They stop being so aggressively with having higher [levels of] telom- cancerous in their properties and they erase and better telomere lengths. We start to look a bit more normal. put two and two together and say what The most dangerous cancer cells

if people could be helped to deal with K. MURALI KUMAR are actually the ones that are more like their stresses. stem cells, which have this ability to Now you can’t change life. You produce themselves over and over can’t change the fact that somebody “The most again. More and more cancer biolo- had a chronically ill childhood or the gists say stem-cell-like cells in cancers father has dementia. But, maybe, you dangerous are the most dangerous. can give people these tools, or things What’s interesting is [by targeting they can do that will help them cope. cancer cells are the telomerase RNA] we can work Would that modulate their telomerase them to being less stem-cell-like. We up? I love it because it is very, very the ones that have also seen less metastasis; less cheap. metastatic lung tumours in the case of This does not take a drug that has are more like melanomas [for example]. That’s an- to be developed, which is very slow and other way of approaching the problem, complicated. You don’t know when a stem cells.” to make the cancer cells less danger- drug is going to surprise you and give ous. You might still want to kill them unexpected side-effects like some of In the modern context, could one off at the same time. But probably the anti-inflammatory drugs. But if it’s perhaps even conceive of consuming since cancers can change – like bacte- you being enabled to cope with this some kind of drug, probably the rial populations can grow resistant sort of situation, it’s not your genes or enzyme itself, to enhance telomerase variants in response to certain anti- something that you cannot change in activity? biotics and then take over the entire the immediate future; I really like the Oh, yes. You can absolutely imag- bacterial population – if you hit them idea. And I am not saying that this ine it. We just haven’t got around to with one thing, they become resistant should somehow replace the older that. When you have medicines, when to evade that and then they are the ways of medication. But if we can stave you are not yet sick, you want to make ones to proliferate. some of this off by these sorts of thing- sure that the risk is extremely low. So you just want to hit the cancer s...I am a great believer in trying to use That’s been the problem. But every cells in as many ways as possible with- the biology itself. This is biology…real- drug, [even if] well designed, will have out causing a whole lot of collateral ly complex; millions of years have some risk and until we understand damage to the normal tissues. It’s nice evolved to this. This is doing someth- how well it works…which is always fea- to have other arrows in your armoury. ing that we are not smart enough to sible.... There isn’t something in the Also, completely knocking out telom- reproduce. So why not deploy it, use shop right now to say that here is a erase will make a lot of sense. True, but the system that is already there as reliable telomerase activator and we why not use what the cancer cells have much as possible. will have one a day. That will be very told us, which is that the high [levels This is hardly new. Eastern med- nice. I am not saying one shouldn’t of] telomerase is also making the cells, icine has been saying this for a thou- look for it. Right now, we have only got for reasons that we don’t understand, sand years…more sort of integrated physiology; at least [we should] try to apparently more malignant. medicine. Some philosophies have use that as much as possible if it could been using this idea for a long, long be harnessed to work in [our] favour. But, since there is no clear tag that time. But it is just that when you see distinguishes the telomerase of one something like this, which you can In your talk, you spoke of how the cell from that of another, is there a quantify, finding a nice easy-to-under- technique of ribonucleic acid (RNA) danger that you would get at the stand number like telomerase levels or interference could bring telomerase others as well? average telomere lengths that you can RNA levels down. Could cancer be Exactly. This is the whole problem see and measure and see for yourself if treated by targeting telomerase with cancer. Cancer is us. It is not like it’s useful or not…. activity in this way? some foreign bacteria or some malarial

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parasite. It’s us. And that’s been the vascular disease very much. Why they problem and just as with any other die is actually very unclear. Gerontol- anti-cancer approach, they are after all ogists would say that suddenly there our own cells and they are not com- would be a little crisis and they would pletely different from the normal just die. But that won’t be accompa- cells… . And one of the ways of think- nied necessarily by years of heart dis- ing it out is that cancer cells have sort ease or anything like that. of become like addicts to certain of Extreme-longevity people look ve- their ways of doing things. They seem ry old but they seem to remain healthy addicted to their high telomerase [lev- throughout and free of disease for a els], which is a sort of fanciful way of long, long time. What gets most people saying it. But it is not a bad way of are diseases of aging and that’s where saying it. They become so adapted to this link with the shorter telomeres running on very high levels of telom- and diseases of aging seem so consis- erase that all their cell processes are “There’s a new tent. I don’t want to say completely adapted to that situation. that telomeres have nothing to do with Now, normal cells in the body are terminology.... the death of extreme-longevity people. just adapted to running on a nice, lean, It might in ways we don’t understand. regulated diet of telomerase. So, when People talked There might be connections but it’s not you suddenly have these addicts and unravelled. you hit them and knock down their about lifespan So what might be feasible in a sort telomerase [levels], they are actually of dream world would be that if telom- more susceptible than [what] normal [earlier]. Now erase could be stimulated by any of cells might be. n analogy might be like these methods in a way that it is opti- a heroin user. It is a little bit of a sim- it’s healthspan.” mal, and doesn’t turn it on to [do] plistic analogy, but there is an indica- something crazy, then would that be tion that there is this idea of addiction medicine is to be delivered. These helpful in mitigating getting these dis- of the cancer cells. So that gives you ideas are being tried for various things, eases like cardiovascular disease and hope that if you are hitting something and we are trying for telomerase cancer? Because you are programmed that is really high characteristically in agents as well just to see if that might pretty much for 100 plus years, you cancer cells like telomerase, even help the situation but it is something could be healthy up to that time in your though we have telomerase in normal one has to be aware of in any kind of life. And then something will happen cells, they might not be quite so anti-cancer approach. as it seems to happen with very old shocked when you knock it down be- people. Suddenly, some small pertur- cause they are already running on low Conversely, do you think telomerase bation happens and very quickly you amounts of it. So, that’s the logic. Then could also be provoked to be more go downhill – sometimes it’s pneumo- everything depends on the realities of active and thus prevent or slow down nia, sometimes it’s a fall or sometimes how well is the drug getting taken up. the aging process, as some believe? it’s just something, and you just don’t The other way, since we want the Here is my take on this. How do we recover from it. drug to get to only the cancer cells, is to estimate what is going on with aging? From what I understand so far, the package up the drug into tiny capsules One way is to say, how long do people telomere maintenance part will be called liposomes – which are almost live? I think that’s pretty genetically much more related to whether you will like tiny grease bubbles – coat them clear. If everything is going right, for have a healthy old age. Actually, there’s with antibodies which recognise sur- humans it’s not going to be more than a very nice new terminology that is face markers that are particularly 120 years, the maximum known. It’s catching up. People talked about li- [like] dents on the surface of cancer not clear to me how exactly telomere fespan [earlier]. Now it’s “health- cells. maintenance might relate to that be- span”. What you would like to have is Again, they are not completely ab- cause people have been looking at cen- that healthspan should be as close as sent in normal cells but they are dents tenarians and looking for genes whose possible to your lifespan. As far as we on cancer cells. That differential be- alleles are more or less represented. know, there is nothing much we can do tween the cancer cell and the other cell So far nothing relating to telom- about lifespan. I have no particular is a way of making the liposome deliver erase or telomeres has shown up in feeling that humanity would necessar- preferentially to cancer cells. The other these people. In fact, their telomeres ily want to live till 1,200 [years]. It advantage is that it protects whatever look pretty good. You would see dis- might be fun but for the immediate drug or anti-telomerase agent is inside eases of aging going up but people who future, we have got to live with what to be broken down only where the live a long life seem not to get cardio- we’ve got. २

FRONTLINE 95 Column MAY 8, 2009 For nuclear sanity

India should welcome Obama’s call for a nuclear weapons-free world and launch a spirited campaign for the rapid elimination of nuclear weapons worldwide.

RESIDENT Barack Oba- doctrines than that of nuclear deter- ma’s April 5 speech in rence, which is fatally flawed. Prague calling for a world Thus, the U.S. has failed, even two free of the scourge of nu- decades after the Cold War ended, to clear weapons is a major move beyond relatively paltry reduc- foreignP and security policy initiative tions in its nuclear arsenal through the that deserves applause. If he pursues Moscow Treaty of 2002. Under Bush, its logic through to the end with the it refused to take 2,200 weapons off same sincerity and passion with which “launch on warning” alert. The U.S. he outlined his commitment “to seek military establishment wants to devel- the peace and security of a world with- op a Reliable Replaceable Warhead for out nuclear weapons”, he could be the existing ones, find new uses (for ex- first United States President to go be- ample, bunker-busting) for old weap- yond nuclear arms control and to put on designs, and has yielded to nuclear weapons elimination on the pressures from the nuclear weapons global agenda. That would mark a Beyond the laboratories to modernise and refine turning point for strategic thinking the existing armaments and do experi- world over and open up new avenues Obvious mental work on fusion weapons at the through which to seek security. expensive National Ignition Facility. This remains a big “if”. Obama has BIDWAI Bush was not only obsessed with not yet worked out the doctrinal, stra- PRAFUL perpetuating America’s nuclear supe- tegic and practical consequences of his riority. He gave it a particularly deadly fundamental premise that a secure “We are not destined,” said Oba- edge through BMD deployment in Po- world without nuclear weapons is both ma, “to live in a world where more land and the Czech Republic, thus exa- possible and desirable. His speech only nations and more people possess [nu- cerbating tensions with Russia and outlines some necessary steps but clear weapons]. Such fatalism is a destabilising strategic balances world- without specifying their sequence or deadly adversary, for if we believe that wide. Bush also blurred vital distinc- time frame, numbers (of weapons to be the spread of nuclear weapons is inevi- tions between conventional and de-alerted or destroyed), the roles of table, then in some way we are ad- nuclear weapons, unsigned the Com- different actors, the function of legally mitting to ourselves that the use of prehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) binding treaties, and so on. nuclear weapons is inevitable.” Log- and abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Mis- But Obama has stated some prem- ically, fighting fatalism means putting sile Treaty with Russia. ises upfront and emphasised their “an end to Cold War thinking” and Bush’s BMD programme will mil- moral-political rationale in a way no reducing “the role of nuclear weapons itarise and nuclearise outer space, in major global leader has done in recent in our national security strategy”. which the U.S. seeks “full-spectrum” years. Thus, he said, “the existence of This sets Obama miles apart not dominance. His paranoid response to thousands of nuclear weapons is the just from George W. Bush but also the September 11 attacks resulted in most dangerous legacy of the Cold from Bill Clinton. Obama is effectively the worst-ever fiasco in the history of War”; these are “the ultimate tools of reversing a long tradition beginning the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty destruction”, which can erase the with the Ronald Reagan presidency to- (NPT) at its important review confe- world “in a single flash of light”. The wards either a hardening of the U.S. rence in 2005, liquidating all the sig- global non-proliferation regime is in nuclear posture, or the development of nificant gains made at the 2000 crisis and “the risk of a nuclear attack new weapons such as “Star Wars”-style review. has gone up”; soon, “we could reach the ballistic missile defence (BMD), itself Obama promises to change course, point where the centre cannot hold”. premised on even more dangerous radically. He has spoken more boldly

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and honestly in favour of a nuclear double standards and detracts from [CTBT] at the earliest practical day, weapons-free world than any other the universal urgency of abolishing all and then launch a major diplomatic U.S. President in decades. He has gone nuclear weapons. Obama’s endorse- initiative to ensure its entry into force.” further than any other in acknowledg- ment of Bush’s Proliferation Security (The letter was suppressed by South ing that the U.S. bears a “moral re- Initiative – unilateral interception at Block.) sponsibility” for nuclear disarmament sea of suspect nuclear-related materi- Indian policymakers are also re- because it is the only power to have als – follows from this. portedly relieved that Obama has not used the horror weapon. This speaks of Finally, Obama believes that dis- reiterated his letter’s reference to In- exemplary moral clarity, as does his armament may not be achieved in “my dia’s “real responsibilities – [includ- statement that the U.S. must take the lifetime”. Such pessimism is unwar- ing] steps to restrain nuclear weapons lead on disarmament. However, that ranted. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s programmes and pursuing effective cannot be said about four other propo- thoughtful plan for global nuclear dis- disarmament when others do so”. They sitions in Obama’s speech. First, he armament, presented to the United are also pleased that Obama has ap- betrays an unpardonably naive faith in Nations General Assembly in 1988, set pointed Ellen Tauscher, a Democrat nuclear deterrence: “Make no mistake. a 15-year timeline for complete nucle- Congresswoman, as Under Secretary As long as [nuclear] weapons exist, the ar elimination. This is realistic – if the of State for Arms Control and Interna- U.S. will maintain a safe, secure and U.S. and the international community tional Security rather than Robert Ein- effective arsenal to deter any adver- musters the will for an early disarma- horn, described by India’s nuclear sary.…” He also believes in extended ment initiative. hawks as “an ayatollah of deterrence – deploying nuclear weap- If Obama effects deep cuts in U.S. non-proliferation”. ons in non-North Atlantic Treaty Or- nuclear weapons through the promis- Such timidity is unbecoming of a ganisation countries. ed Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty nation that claims to be proud of its This column has dissected the fal- with Russia this year, and launches a pro-disarmament record and has lacy of nuclear deterrence far too often drive for banning nuclear testing and pledged to fight for a nuclear weapons- to warrant further comment other ending fissile production worldwide, free world. India opposed the CTBT in than that it is a fallible, fragile and the momentum can be accelerated, es- 1995-96 not for its intrinsic flaws or unreliable basis on which to premise pecially if U.S. policy shifts to no-first- demerits but because it wanted to test security (via a balance of terror). It use. After all, even the Four Horsemen nuclear weapons. Having done so in involves unrealistic assumptions of the Apocalypse – George P. Schulz, 1998, India should sign and ratify the about capabilities and doctrines, sym- William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger treaty. Even Arundhati Ghose, who fa- metrical perceptions by adversaries of and Sam Nunn – believe that nuclear mously declared that India will not “unacceptable damage” means, and weapons abolition can be achieved in sign it “not now, not ever”, now says the complete absence of miscalcula- the foreseeable future. that she sees no problem with its signa- tions and accidents – 100 per cent of Obama’s speech provides an op- ture. This may show a deplorable level the time. portunity to all those who believe in of cynicism, but it is nevertheless a Second, Obama continues to re- complete nuclear weapons elimina- ground for correcting course and re- pose faith in BMD – he congratulated tion, a cause kept alive by the peace turning to the disarmament agenda. the Czech for their “courage” in hosting movement, a coalition of states, and Logically, this includes several it – although he qualifies his support several expert commissions. India too steps such as the CTBT, Fissile Materi- by saying BMD must be “cost-effective professes a commitment to this goal al Cut-off Treaty, regional nuclear and proven”. This ignores BMD’s and must seize this opportunity. risk-reduction and restraint measures primitive, as-yet-premature status in (including forswearing missile test- intercepting missiles, and worse, the INDIA’S LUKEWARM RESPONSE flights and keeping delivery vehicles danger of escalating military rivalry to Regrettably, Indian policymakers apart from warheads) and, of course, uncertain and risky levels where an have extended a lukewarm, if not cold, deep cuts in nuclear weapons by all the adversary could feel tempted to neu- welcome to Obama’s speech. So fearful nuclear weapons states, beginning tralise a putative BMD advantage by are they of pressure on India to sign with the U.S. and Russia. amassing more missiles or launching the CTBT that they are clutching at India must boldly seize the initia- wildcat strikes. straws. One such is Obama’s statement tive by updating the Rajiv Gandhi Third, Obama, like Bush and Clin- that “my administration will immedi- plan, opposing BMD and proactively ton, makes a specious distinction be- ately and aggressively pursue U.S. rat- arguing for rapid strides towards the tween responsible/acceptable/good ification of the CTBT”. This is different complete elimination of nuclear weap- nuclear powers (the Big Five-plus-Is- from what he wrote in a letter to Prime ons. Here lies the litmus test of India’s rael-plus-India-plus-non-Taliban-Pa- Minister Manmohan Singh before he commitment to a nuclear weapons- kistan) and irresponsible/dangerous was sworn in: “I will work with the U.S. free world and of its creative and prin- ones (Iran, North Korea). This permits Senate to secure ratification of cipled diplomacy. २

FRONTLINE 97 Column MAY 8, 2009 Will the elections be peaceful?

A major lacuna in the Representation of the People Act is that it permits individuals facing criminal charges in a court to contest elections.

S I write this column on the citement to violence on sectarian eve of the first phase of poll- grounds and open threats to public ing for a new Lok Sabha, I servants who have to ensure fair elec- perceive widespread fears tions by those who held public office in that the election this time the past does not augur well for the willA be more violent than in the past. I peaceful conduct of elections and also know it is customary to say this every for the future of our polity. time we have elections. In a country where the quality of politics is vitiated VIOLENCE AND MONEY by money power and all that goes with In politics, violence and money power it, it does not require extraordinary go together. The sums of money that I intelligence to make such a bold pre- hear are in circulation in most parts of diction. This time, however, the appre- the country are mind-boggling. The hension is well merited if one goes by purchase of votes has become common the more-than-usual personal acrimo- and has made a mockery of the whole ny between leaders of rival formations Law and Order electoral process . More despicable is at the national and regional levels. the use of money to set goons on rival The exchanges between the Con- RAGHAVAN party workers. With so much money gress and the Bharatiya Janata Party R.K. available to many parties, I expect a leaders are in particular painful even greater use of it this time to engineer to an objective commentator, however share in the booty by garnering “lucra- lawlessness. Few parties, except per- entertaining they may be to the aver- tive” portfolios. haps the Leftists, are saints in this re- age television viewer. Also, the stakes Whether one likes it or not, the spect. Until a decade ago, the south are much higher than before for any Indian polity is stuck with too many compared favourably with the north. one group, however small it might be, regional parties. For the foreseeable Not any longer. The Election Commis- to let go an opportunity to share power future, the trend seems irreversible. sion (E.C.) is a helpless spectator. It at the Centre and enjoy (read misuse) Those who are opposed to the rise of lacks the bite required to instil fear in the fruits of office. regional parties say that this is not a those indulging in unfair practices. It is now well established that a welcome phenomenon because, unlike The noises it makes are symbolic be- party taking part in a coalition govern- national parties, these outfits may not cause it does not have the needed clout. ment can abuse its privileges and get be expected to adhere to the funda- The credentials of some candidates away with no penalty whatsoever. And mental principles of dignified political are highly questionable, to put it mild- the incentives are far higher at the conduct. They believe that a large na- ly. The statistics of members in the last Centre than in the States. This is why a tional formation has a reputation to Lok Sabha who had a criminal record no-holds-barred fight for every seat lose and a future to look forward to, are forbidding. The picture is more de- that can be won is very much on the and hence its leadership will steer the pressing in the case of State Assem- cards. The means used will just not group along responsible lines. blies. As long as we are unable to cure count. Ideological differences will all Some recent utterances by those this malady, our politics will remain be buried in the post-election scenario who belong to such all-India parties do muddy. Almost every party has a quota to cobble up an alliance, mainly to not, however, inspire confidence. In- of criminals. Ironically, some of them

98 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 RAVEENDRAN/AFP ACTIVISTS OF A voluntary organisation protesting against criminals contesting the parliamentary elections, in New Delhi on March 14. acquire the authority to make law after date. How does one ensure that eve- scheme of things, when nothing has having deliberately violated it. A major ryone who wants to exercise his or her been done to ensure operational au- lacuna in the Representation of the franchise feels secure enough to go the tonomy on the lines suggested by the People Act is that it permits individu- assigned booth and cast his or her National Police Commission (1977) als facing a criminal charge in a court vote? The task boils down to one of and the Supreme Court (September to contest elections. This is on the spe- protecting the minorities and weaker 2005), the police will continue to be cious plea that no one can be consi- sections so that they can confidently the handmaiden of those in power. dered guilty unless convicted in a court take part in the process. The E.C. has They will be penalised if they display of law. And you know how long trials done its bid by staggering the polling any enthusiasm for working to achieve last in our country, enabling many to over a month so that enough security a fair poll. remain in public office with impunity forces are available. I still remember how an Inspector for years. Even after this commendable exer- General of Police was removed from It is this permissiveness that en- cise, policemen are thinly spread office about four decades ago simply courages violence at election time. Any across the huge number of booths in a because he saw to it that protection improvement in this area can come constituency, making it easy for mis- was given to members of a minority about only with an amendment to the creants to indulge in intimidation. Re- community who were determined to election law that will bar an individual polling at centres, from where there vote against the ruling party. Not only from contesting if a charge-sheet is are credible reports of such intimida- that. He was eased out of his official pending against him or her in court. tion, is the only answer. residence, which was promptly con- Many political parties allege that if What about the ability of police verted into an office building. The poor there were such a law, the ruling party forces themselves to remain neutral man died within a few months of a would manipulate election-eve during the polling process? The E.C. is heart attack. In my view, such vindic- charge-sheets against their rivals. This acutely conscious of this. Wherever in- tiveness still dominates the higher argument can be taken care of partially dividual officers had come to its notice echelons of the political hierarchy. Al- by ensuring that a charge-sheet filed for partisanship, it has ordered their so, in the present times, no Director six months before the notification of an removal. This is good only as far as it General of Police will ever stick his election will be taken into account goes. What about other policemen in neck out if his Chief Minister is known while examining the validity of nomi- the field? It is too much to expect them to be opposed to a group and wants it nation of a candidate. It is not very to be neutral if the ruling party men to be prevented from voting. He may difficult to arrive at a political consen- indulge in questionable tactics, includ- not connive at this, but he will certain- sus on this issue. ing scaring away groups who are defi- ly look the other way. This is the extent The fundamental test of electoral nitely known for their aversion to the to which our police forces have been fairness comes on the actual election party in power. Under the present emasculated. २

FRONTLINE 99 FOCUS CAREER & EDUCATION IN DELHI MAY 8, 2009 Training minds

The civil services continue to attract a large number of aspirants as governance

has acquired new dimensions. BY A CORRESPONDENT

As the government’s requirement of personnel grows and the nature of question papers has changed, the role of coaching institutes has assumed added importance. IF you find yourself being chased in the busy streets of New Delhi by random property dealers for rooms, in all possibility you are in one of those areas where coaching institutes for the civil services exam-

ination have mushroomed. The political economy NAGARA GOPAL around popular coaching institutes such as Rau’s IAS AND IPS probationers take the oath of IAS Study Circle, Vajiram and Ravi, and Khan Study allegiance to the Constitution at the Dr. MCR Group draws a large chunk of civil services aspirants Human Resource Development Institute in to the capital. Hyderabad in September 2008. A survey suggests that four lakh people take the exam every year. And as it requires at least one year of Over the years, the examination has seen many intensive preparation and another year to finish the changes. For instance, the pattern of both the pre- process, coaching institutes assume importance. liminary and main exams has shifted from direct But why do so many seek to get into the civil questions to more analytical and application-based services? “It is a mix of high social prestige attached questions. Now subjects such as reasoning, science to the services and a desire to bring about a change in and technology, statistics and public administration the system,” says V.P. Gupta, the director of Rau’s are getting as much importance as Humanities. A.R. IAS Study Circle. This view is supported by the in- Khan of Khan Study Group says, “We teach our crease in the number of aspirants taking the exam students to apply their knowledge rather than just every year. Interestingly, the economic recession has mug up facts.” drawn more people towards a career in high-profile The reason seems obvious. Since the inception of bureaucracy. the Indian government’s liberalisation policies in The civil services exam has a three-tier system. 1991, the role of bureaucrats, too, has seen a sea Owing to the vast number of applicants, the Union change – from regulation to facilitation. When this is Public Service Commission selects the best of the lot said, the general feeling that the importance of the on the basis of an objective preliminary exam. Select- civil services has gradually been decreasing proves to ed candidates write a main exam consisting of eight be completely wrong. The number of vacancies for papers including General Studies, languages, and the services has gone up from 200 or 300 to 700 or two optional papers. Candidates who clear the main 800 in the last three or four years. exam are then called for a personality test or in- Experts say that the role of the facilitator that terview after which the final selection is done and the civil servants have come to play does not mean less services are allotted rank wise. Generally, the Indian work. “Bureaucrats have many roles these days. The Administrative Service (IAS), the Indian Police Ser- process of decentralisation in governance and the vice (IPS) and the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) are specialisation of tasks leading to the separation of the most preferred. departments has made the duties more demanding,”

100 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 FOCUS CAREER & EDUCATION IN DELHI says P.S. Ravindran, the director of Vajiram and Ravi. One of the major reasons for the increase in posts was the Right to In- Quality first formation Act 2004, which necessitat- ed the recruitment of new information Interview with P.S. Ravindran, Director, Vajiram & Ravi. officers to serve the Central Informa- tion Commission, which used to be BY AJOY ASHIRWAD MAHAPRASHASTA manned by retired officials. The Cen- tral Vigilance Commission, formed in P.S. RAVINDRAN says, “We don’t students face problems like lack of 2000, also needs more civil servants. publish photographs of our success- motivation and self-doubts. These Similarly, the birth of different Minis- ful students but our students keep things increase as the examination tries, such as telecom, disinvestment interacting with us even when they closes in, so we ensure that we help and civil aviation, after the economic are posted in other places.” This ex- them during that time. Some of our changes required more bureaucrats. plains the importance of his insti- teachers stay here from early morn- And the requirement of security per- tute, Vajiram & Ravi, in the lives of ing to late evening to counsel them. sonnel, especially for the police servic- many IAS officers. es, in these disturbed times will also be What are the most fulfilled through the exam. As a coaching institute, popular courses of your Of late, there has been a rise in the how do you rate yourself institute? number of technocrats and doctors in the market? There are many. who write this exam. This would mean The institute started General Studies, Public increased competition as the changing in 1976. For the past nine Administration, Psy- question paper pattern could be more years in a row, our insti- chology, Commerce and suitable to them. However, some tute has given all-India also interview coaching institutes feel that it is wrong first rankers. We not only preparation. to say that the exam is more advanta- make our students well- BY SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT geous to science students, who, they equipped to take the ex- How do you address P.S. RAVINDRAN: feel, were at a disadvantage earlier be- amination but also train the continually “For the past nine cause the General Studies paper had a them in a comprehensive changing pattern and years in a row, our tilt in the favour of Humanities stu- manner. syllabus of the civil institute has given dents. This is where, perhaps, coach- services exams? all-India first ing institutes play an important part: What is the focus of your One of our insti- rankers.” by training students in a holistic way. teaching methods? tute’s major recom- Coaching institutes also take care The primary thing is quality mendations is to refer constantly to that students do not lose their spirit education. We believe in covering the question papers. It is the ques- while preparing for this strenuous ex- the entire syllabus, at least 95 per tion papers that make the syllabus am. “We tell our students that the aver- cent of it. Secondly, we offer quality complete. For instance, we stress on age attention span of any human being teaching and cover the syllabus in topics, the type of questions in those is not above 12 minutes, and then train time. Sudents are given a date on topics. our students to do effective reading to which the course is completed so That suggestion is applicable to assimilate better. This infuses confi- that they can have a sense of com- teachers as well. We believe that the dence in them,” says Gupta. pletion. Another thing that we teacher is the first student. He has to While this tedious exam, some- stress is commitment to the stu- first learn to teach. One of the rea- times considered to be the toughest in dents and the accessibility of teach- sons why General Studies is very the world, could still be a matter of ers so that students can clarify their popular here is that the course luck, one cannot deny that hard work doubts any time. needs more revision and updates generally pays. The journey through every year than any other subject. the exam in itself is so informative that A year-long preparation could be Current affairs, Indian polity one could use it in any profession. tedious for students. How do you and the economy change drastically Gupta says, “Learning about learning tackle this problem? every year. It is because of our abil- is actual learning. We must enjoy the Our first lecture in any new ses- ity to adapt and provide such cut- journey of reading and preparing for sion starts with a motivational talk. ting edge knowledge to students the exam.” If one sticks by this, per- Once in a month we give them a pep that we are able to remain haps, the civil services exam might not talk. We have come to realise that competitive. appear to be that difficult. २

FRONTLINE 101

FOCUS CAREER & EDUCATION IN DELHI MAY 8, 2009 Human development

Interview with V.P. Gupta, Director, Rau’s IAS Study Circle.

BY AJOY ASHIRWAD MAHAPRASHASTA

“We emphasise on three things: the general good of the people. Thus our effort is aimed at all-around development of personality of effective observation, effective the students and not at mere transfer of information on the subjects taught. reading and effective listening. Do you have any unique method of teaching? Why should a student come to Rau’s rather than go We take our students through a elsewhere? psychological training programme At the Study Circle, the students get to study in an atmosphere that brings out their best. There is an that helps them assimilate and environment of real and meaningful learning be- sides encouragement to trust in one’s own ability. analyse facts better.” This is difficult to find at other places. Hence, the Study Circle experience helps bring out their leader- V.P. GUPTA of Rau’s IAS Study Circle has been a ship qualities and other skills required to become friend, philosopher and guide to many successful administrators of the country. civil servants. He has a philosophy behind his work: to enjoy the journey of life. And his focus is on What is the unique selling proposition of your learning and education and bringing a different ap- institute? proach to the business. The faculty of the Study Circle handle all subjects with great ease and expertise. In our long experience, How long has Rau’s IAS Study Circle been in the we have seen that there is a great demand for our business and how have you contributed to making courses on Public Administration, History, Geog- better bureaucrats? raphy, Sociology, Commerce, Economics, Law, Po- The Study Circle came into existence in 1953. Its litical Science and Psychology besides the General aim has not only been to help students qualify for the Studies and Essay papers, which are compulsory. IAS, but to make them better human beings, honest, sincere and hard-working public servants devoted to Are the notes given by your institute sufficient to crack this high-profile examination? The Study Circle gives complete notes to the students for all the subjects taught. Here the idea is not to flood them with irrelevant information but to provide them with useful, specific and result-ori- ented material. This is appreciated by the students.

How does Rau’s help students handle the pressure? I have always said that learning about learning is real learning. We emphasise on three things: effec- tive observation, effective reading and effective lis- tening. Listening is a very difficult task as our minds tend to travel a lot. So, we take our students through ANU PUSHKARNA a psychological training programme that helps them V.P.GUPTA: “At the Study Circle, there is an assimilate and analyse facts better. environment of meaningful learning besides Second, we stress on optimisation of attention. encouragement to trust in one’s own ability.” We understand an interpreted version of what we

104 FRONTLINE

FOCUS CAREER & EDUCATION IN DELHI MAY 8, 2009

Personal attention Interview with A.R. Khan, Director, Khan Study Group.

BY AJOY ASHIRWAD MAHAPRASHASTA

A.R. KHAN of the Khan Study We would never go to a scale where Group (KSG) has been teaching IAS our education becomes an industry. aspirants for the past 18 years. With What subjects do you specialise in? an award to its credit for being the SANDEEP SAXENA best in the business, KSG has deli- General Studies is the most pop- AT THE RAU’S IAS Study Circle, vered an 80 per cent success rate ular course here. We have got a students are taught techniques of this year. team of people who specialise in visual learning. their respective fields. We choose What is your idea of teaching the teachers who have the knack of in- listen to. But as objectivity is necessary IAS aspirants? terrelating things. To teach history, to crack the exam, our teaching focuss- We focus on the skills that are you need not be a historian. What es on aspects that keep interpretation necessary for students to get into this exam requires is proper weav- to the minimum. the job. Any coaching ing together of all the institute has a limited subjects so that students How do you do this? job. But in the process, get a holistic perspec- By just being aware of it. If both the we try to make them tive, and that is what our teacher and the student are aware of better people. We have teachers do. these problem areas, you compensate our methods to keep We focus more on for the break in attention. And then, the students oriented answer writing. It’s not you try to create a link between these towards their goal. We about how much you chains of spans of attention. The leak- call it POD [Proof of know but how much you ages can be compensated thus. For in- Delivery]. produce. Even with lim- stance, our techniques of mind Both teachers and ited skills, the students mapping, single-page note-making, students, after their should come up with power notes, and so on, impart knowl- SUSHIL KUMAR VERMA class, should feel that fantastic answers, and edge to the students in a visual sense, they have delivered at A.R. KHAN: “We that is why we are here. which helps them remember better. their levels. So what we continuously monitor do is to put them the performance of Did the economic What criteria do you have for through a specially de- every student.” slowdown hit the sector selecting teachers? signed test. If they are in any way? Only educators who display the ex- able to answer the questions in the In these times of economic re- ceptional qualities required for han- test, both the teacher and the stu- cession, a large number of people dling the needs of the students dents are satisfied. We pay attention have shown inclination towards the preparing for such a tough exam are to every student because we are not civil services, which is quite con- selected. a huge number here. trary to the general myth. I have always seen people running towards How do you foresee the role of your So is this the USP of your institute? it rather than going away from it. coaching institute in an economic We give them handouts and Now the seats are hovering at 600 to regime where the role of the state continuously monitor the perfor- 700 a year. There was a time when it seems to be reducing? mance of every student. So the stu- was around 400 seats. As the scope of Indian economy dent always knows where he stands. The numbers are almost always expands, we foresee an increase in the This helps him to put in that extra demand driven. Bureaucrats are need for government services too. effort. Quite often when a student is donning the role of facilitators now. Hence, we feel there is going to be an learning by himself, he doesn’t In our context of indicative plan- increase in the role of the bureaucracy know his position. Our classes are ning, there will always be a role for in the near future for a well-supervised not huge, which helps us even more. them. and orderly expansion of the Indian economy. २

106 FRONTLINE

FOCUS CAREER & EDUCATION IN DELHI MAY 8, 2009 Managing the nation

Interview with Professor Arindam Chaudhuri, Indian Institute of Planning and

Management. BY AJOY ASHIRWAD MAHAPRASHASTA

day we are the only institute from where students go “Gather as much knowledge as you abroad and study at top B-schools. As the digital revolution took place, management courses includ- can. Even in these difficult times, if ed papers like digital marketing. As investment banks closed down, the investment banking paper at a student can show that he can make the IIPM was rechristened wealth management. Management as an education stream has also a difference to a company, there evolved totally, thanks to market needs. won’t be a dearth of jobs for him.” What makes the IIPM different from other PROFESSOR Arindam Chaudhuri is the Honor- management institutes in the country? ary Dean of the Centre for Economic Research and The IIPM is different due to many things but the Advanced Studies at the Indian Institute of Planning first and foremost reason is our education. It’s un- and Management (IIPM). This economist, philoso- arguably superior to the education imparted at any pher, film-maker, and writer reflects on the evolu- B-school in the world. It’s an MBA programme with tion of management education in India and tells us compulsory specialisation in marketing and entre- about the ways in which people can tackle the eco- preneurship combined with an M.A. Economics lev- nomic recession. el course and a specialisation in national economic planning. So while the best MBAs are above 120 What was the vision behind the IIPM? credits, the IIPM programme is 200 credits. The vision was to set up an institute that would Then there is our faculty. They are the only ones not just groom managers for the micro-level but in India who take regular workshops with the faculty managers who have a macro-level vision for the of the top 20 B-schools of the world. Conducting nation. That’s why we call it the In- corporate sessions jointly with them stitute of Planning and Manage- requires abilities that very few pos- ment. Planning does not stand for sess in this country, where every real just micro-managerial planning; it estate company to sweet shop is im- stands for national economic plan- parting education. ning. Given a choice, our institute would have been called the Indian The slogan “Dare to think beyond Institute of Planning and Adminis- IIMs” is quite popular. But why tration of the National Economy. compare with the IIMs? But then there would have been no We say it because if true educa- market for us. tion is what matters, then there is no institute better than the IIPM. And As a pioneer in management it’s important to make people realise education, how do you think it in a comparative manner. The IIM management teaching has evolved aura, due to their placements, blinds over the years? Have market needs people so much that they don’t care necessitated this evolution? RAJEEV BHATT about who gives better education. Yes, market always influences ARINDAM CHAUDHURI: At the IIPM, we are waiting for our education and it should, in the right “THE vision [behind the IIPM] placement packages to touch the manner. For instance, globalisation was to groom managers who level of the IIM packages. When it made us add a paper on global op- have a macro-level vision for does, people will start opting for the portunities and threat analysis. To- the nation.” IIPM first.

108 FRONTLINE

FOCUS CAREER & EDUCATION IN DELHI MAY 8, 2009

Inclusive publishing

Interview with Nuzhat Hasan, Director, National Book

Trust, India. BY AJOY ASHIRWAD MAHAPRASHASTA

NUZHAT HASAN, Director of the perspective of the book-reading National Book Trust, India, initi- habit. This is the first step towards ated the publishing of over 170 developing the Action Plan. Braille titles towards developing an P.V. SIVAKUMAR inclusive policy in the publishing in- What has been the focus of the NBT STUDENTS AT AMAZE 08, the dustry. Her emphasis is on taking publications in recent times? annual management and cultural books to the remotest corners of In- In recent years, the NBT started event held at the IIPM in Hyderabad dia. Nuzhat Hasan speaks about the series on popular social science, Af- on December 23, 2008. NBT’s inclusive plan. ro-Asian countries, the Indian dias- pora, Indian literature, and so on. Has the economic recession changed Could you brief us about the history We brought out a collection of Sri your approach to management of the NBT and the reason behind Lankan short stories, Bridging Con- education? its establishment? nections, which brings together re- Recession has not changed the The NBT was established on presentative writings in Tamil, IIPM’s approach towards education at August 1, 1957, with the objectives Sinhala and English. all. Yes, it has changed our approach of publishing reasonably priced On the occasion of the golden towards placements. We had a team of high quality books for children and jubilee celebrations of the trust, the 66 people doing placements globally. general adult readers, and promot- Golden Jubilee Anthologies project Now we have a team of 88, as more feet ing a culture of reading. was undertaken. The idea was to on the street means more companies publish authentic anthologies of on the campus. The NBT is drawing up a National post-Independence poetry and This year we are concentrating on Action Plan for the Readership short stories in 22 Indian languages small and medium enterprises and Development among the Youth. and plays in eight Indian languages. aim to get around 750 companies to Tell us about the plan and its Now, 31 anthologies have been pub- the campus instead of the 600 that we purpose. lished, which include many in got last year. Young people form the largest smaller languages. segment of the population in India. Is the corporate sector the only option The literacy rate among this seg- You talked about an inclusive policy for management students or should ment is also much higher than the towards publishing. What do you students look out for other sectors national average. Our mean by this? How such as non-governmental interactions showed have you addressed the organisations and the public sector in that in order to con- growth of readership in such tough times? nect with the youth on regional languages? When my students ask me where I a sustained manner We bring out books want to see them 15 years from now, I and at a macro level, a for Braille readers, or- always say politics. I tell them that they focussed national ganise book fairs and are the most suited to become politic- publishing pro- mobile exhibitions even ians with their knowledge of manage- gramme was needed. in far-flung areas, ment and economics. The National workshops for the neo- Council for Applied literates and children in What is your advice to MBA aspirants Economic Research smaller language re- in such times? has undertaken on KAMAL NARANG gion, and the north- My advice to students is: gather as our behalf the first NUZHAT HASAN’S east. We encourage much knowledge as you can. Even in national level reader- EMPHASIS is on taking publication of original these difficult times, if there is a stu- ship survey among books to the remotest manuscripts written in dent who can show that he can make a the youth from the corners of India. regional languages. difference to a company, there won’t be a dearth of jobs for him. २

110 FRONTLINE

Column MAY 8, 2009 Fanfare & failure The G-20 summit has not come anywhere near pulling out the world economy from the unprecedented mess it is in now.

HE much-hyped G-20 sum- of credit through the financial system mit was supposed to save the and ensure the soundness of system- world economy from immi- ically important institutions” without nent collapse and provide making it clear what such measures much-needed relief to devel- would be. Toping countries hit by an economic Yet, without such measures, the tsunami that was not of their own chances of early global recovery are making. Even before the summit was extremely bleak. So exports of devel- held, it was already being hailed as the oping countries will continue to fall, first sign of a changing global order, international capital markets will re- since at long last some large and eco- main skittish and tend to punish nomically significant developing emerging markets out of sheer ner- countries such as China, India, Brazil, vousness and uncertainty, the credit South Africa and Argentina were ad- crunch will continue to constrain in- mitted to the “high table” of the self- vestment and therefore limit recovery, appointed rulers of the world. Preoccupations and many countries will find them- Though the G-20 is somewhat selves desperately short of resources larger than the G-8 and accounts for JAYATI GHOSH for meeting essential needs and devel- the majority of the world’s population, opment projects. it is still an illegitimate grouping, in that it completely bypasses the United signs of the major players in the global FUNNY ANNOUNCEMENTS Nations. Even so, there were those economy acting together to revive it. Despite these evident failures, two who believed that, given the urgency Instead, there was deafening silence great “successes” of the summit were created by the global economy appar- on the fiscal front, with no clear com- widely trumpeted in the international ently in near collapse, it could be the mitment to coordinated fiscal stimu- media: first, the declarations about tax harbinger of a new “Bretton Woods” lus. The communique just had some havens, banking secrecy and financial agreement that would reshape the in- vague statements. This reflected the regulation; and second, the announce- ternational financial architecture, successful resistance of Germany and ment of a supposedly new $1.1 trillion much in the way that the famous con- France to the United States’ attempts “programme of support to restore ference held at Bretton Woods in 1944 to ensure a collective plan for fiscal credit, growth and jobs in the world managed to do. expansion. economy” including $850 billion, Since there was no commitment to which is supposed to be specifically VAGUE STATEMENTS fiscal expansion, there was corre- directed towards developing Of course, we should have all known spondingly no commitment to direct countries. that this was not likely. This is because more resources towards new technol- But the promise of cracking down of not only the lack of adequate prep- ogies and changing patterns of de- on tax havens is little more than a aration for the summit and of legiti- mand to ensure more sustainable and damp squib. To begin with, the ap- macy and representation from all equitable use of the world’s resources. proach chosen has been to agree to nations, but also because there is still Nor was there any evidence of a bind- exchange information on companies too much disagreement on most issues ing commitment to specific measures and individuals suspected of evading among the members of G-20. Even so, to clean up the toxic assets of the taxes only “on request” rather than au- the summit’s communique, released world’s banking systems. tomatically, thereby reducing the effi- with so much fanfare, is deeply dis- Instead, the communique simply cacy of such a measure. appointing, particularly for develop- stated that the leaders of these coun- Second, the issue of misuse of tax ing countries. tries “are committed to take all neces- concessions by companies – by far the In fact, there were precious few sary actions to restore the normal flow biggest issue in tax avoidance – re-

112 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

ceived no attention at all. In fact, there markets because of its aggressively developing countries who should real- was absolutely no attempt to ensure pro-cyclical conditionalities. It is ly know better) there is nothing to stop financial reporting or exchange of in- amazing that the IMF is being reward- it from continuing to behave in this formation on beneficial ownership in ed for multiple failures. ridiculous and unjust way, which is all tax jurisdictions, which would have This is after all the organisation also based on extreme double stan- helped governments crack down on that failed to predict the collapse of the dards for rich and poor countries. corporate tax abuse. U.S. sub-prime market, announced What is particularly unfortunate is The funniest of them all was the that the medium-term financial out- the G-20 completely ignoring the rec- loud announcement of the intention to look for Iceland was exceptionally ommendations of the Stiglitz Commis- “name and shame” and then blacklist healthy just months before the country sion on international financial reform countries that do not cooperate. When was declared effectively bankrupt, and set up by the more democratic interna- the list was released the following day, has succeeded in making things much tional body, the United Nations Gen- it was laughable. worse in most of the countries where it eral Assembly. It consisted of only four territories: has forced its austerity measures in That commission, which came up Uruguay, the Philippines, the Malay- return for paltry loans. with its preliminary report just before sian Federal Territory of Labuan, and the G-20 summit, made a number of Costa Rica. Since none of them is well useful short-term and medium-term known as a tax haven, and the more The G-20 recommendations. For example, it established tax havens in Europe (such recommended an immediate new spe- as Lichtenstein and Luxembourg) ignored the cial allocation of SDRs, along with a were excluded by virtue of their mem- new credit facility for development bership in the Organisation for Eco- Stiglitz funds, strengthening regional initia- nomic Co-operation and tives and providing 1 per cent of all Development, little appears to have Commission’s stimulus packages as Official Devel- been achieved on this front. opment Assistance. These would ac- The only apparently concrete com- proposals on tually have made a much more positive mitment was apparently the one made difference to developing countries to poor countries that have been international than the self-aggrandising posturing thrown into crisis by the global tur- of G-20. moil, by way of pledges of $850 billion financial reform. Even the G-20’s commitment to in new funds. This sounds like a rea- avoid protectionism sounds ominous sonable amount, but how much of it is So the single greatest beneficiary of for developing countries, and not only for real? And how unconditional will this G-20 meeting must be the IMF, because it is likely to be honoured only such money flows be? which would otherwise have been on in the breach. Not much, it turns out. For a start, life support as a global player. Indeed, It was stated with the goal of “reac- the proposed new allocation of special the most disappointing – even most hing an ambitious and balanced con- drawing rights ($250 billion) is to be a alarming – aspect of the G-20 commu- clusion” to the World Trade general allocation, based on existing nique is the declared intent to prop up Organisation trade negotiations – quotas. So the bulk of it will go to the and strengthen the IMF without doing which can only mean forcing more G-20 countries. anything about its completely undem- trade liberalisation that has already The rich world alone will get ap- ocratic structure of decision-making led to agrarian crisis and deindustrial- proximately 60 per cent of the new or its unacceptable loan conditions. isation in much of the south. SDR creation. Helping poor countries What makes this especially trou- The basic problem, though, is that get more would require a special issue bling is that the IMF continues to im- the G-20 has not produced anything of new SDRs – something that was pose these disastrous pro-cyclical like the response needed to pull the proposed in the International Mone- conditions on countries that are forced world economy out of this unprece- tary Fund (IMF) in 1997 but vetoed by to borrow from it at present: Ukraine, dented mess. Clearly, the idea is to put the U.S. and held in abeyance ever Pakistan and Latvia, for example, have back the broken pieces somehow, to since. all been told to cut government spend- produce more of the same pattern of ing and raise interest rates and user growth as before. REWARD FOR IMF charges for government services in the That is neither desirable nor sus- Much of the rest of the money will be middle of the downswing in return for tainable, and will rapidly run into cri- conditional lending from the IMF, IMF loans. sis once more, at a tremendous human which has recently distinguished itself Unfortunately, since the IMF has cost. It is a pity that the would-be lead- only by its utter failure to prevent or been given this unconditional gift from ers of the world have shown so little deal with financial crises in emerging the G-20 leaders (including those from generosity or imagination. २

FRONTLINE 113 Cover Story MAY 8, 2009 New formations The larger southern States of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka see three-cornered contests, and the former two have new formations in the fray.

That was enough to light up the scene. The entire There has been a realignment group of sullen women rush towards us, virtually shouting, “No, in our village, Nachampatti, we have of forces in Tamil Nadu. Andhra not received free television sets. We have not re- ceived free gas stoves either. Even in the neigh- Pradesh, which votes for the bouring villages, while some households have received free television sets or gas stoves, others have Assembly too, has a likely spoiler in not.” The reaction is the same across Peramangalam, the fray. In Karnataka, others have Theni, Tirunelveli and Kanyakumari constituencies. Meena of Pazhavur in Tirunelveli was sarcastic: “I to cope with the power of the BJP. have not got the television set. But some houses have TAMIL NADU received four television sets.” But they are all praise for the government’s BANKING ON POPULISM scheme to provide 20 kg of rice a month at Re.1 a kg. By T.S. Subramanian and S. Viswanathan The quality is sometimes good, at other times bad, IT is late afternoon. A group of women are gath- they say. They equally appreciate the United Pro- ering wood to feed the fire of the brick kiln at Pera- gressive Alliance (UPA) government’s National Ru- mur in the Tiruchi Lok Sabha constituency. An ral Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), attempt to draw Sampoornam, one of the women, under which villagers get employment for 100 days into a discussion on the elections brings a curt reply in a year at Rs.80 a day. from her: “We will decide on polling day.” A col- Cut to the Kalakkad-Cheranmahadevi road in league comes up with a better ploy: “Have you got a Tirunelveli. Sitting on a chair and leaning on a sign- free television set as promised by the DMK [Dravida post near Pudur along the road, R. Balasubramanian Munnetra Kazhagam] government?” says: “The only scheme that is enshrined in the peo- ple’s heart is rice at Re.1 a kg.” While most voters in the State agree with him, they are also angry about the rise in prices and how it has cut into what they have saved by way of this scheme. They are also incensed by the frequent pow- er cuts, ranging from two hours to 10 hours a day, which has hit agricultural operations and small and medium enterprises. P. Ramasamy of Pagalavadi in Perambalur is happy that the government has waived his cooperative farm loan of Rs.23,000, but he is angry about the power cut in his area. “Although the DMK has big influence in this pocket, the power cut will definitely hit its chances. I am unable to operate my two pumpsets. It has affected agricul- ture,” Ramasamy says. At Pattavarthi, young P. Ven- katesan echoes his views: “The power crisis has hit K. PICHUMANI the people hard. It will influence voting.” TNCC PRESIDENT K.V. Thangkabalu receives the A tour of several districts in the State has re- seat-sharing agreement from Chief Minister and vealed that four issues are uppermost in the minds of DMK president M. Karunanidhi in Chennai on voters: the rise in the prices of essential commod- March 29. ities; the power cut; the shoddy distribution of free

114 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

television sets and gas stoves; and the mavalavan, had made common cause Sri Lankan Tamil problem. with the MDMK, the PMK and the For the first time since the 1991 CPI on the Tamil question. elections, the Sri Lankan Tamil prob- Thirumavalavan, who makes no lem will be one of the key issues. While bones about his support to the LTTE, the political parties were only too will- has asserted that his party will neither ing to use the Tamil issue to settle campaign for the Congress candidates political scores, they gave it a wide nor oppose them. The PMK, which berth when the elections were an- walked out of the UPA government on nounced. However, the Marumalarchi March 26 and stepped into the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK parlour, has been rewarded (MDMK), the Pattali Makkal Katchi amply. (PMK) and the Communist Party of The PMK has been allotted seven India (CPI) are determined to go to the constituencies and one Rajya Sabha people on what they call the inaction of seat when elections to the Upper the Congress-led UPA government at House are due in 2010. The MDMK, the Centre and the DMK government which joined hands with the AIADMK in the State. in the 2004 Assembly elections, got “What is the use of our getting rice short shrift. The AIADMK gave the at Re.1 a kg when salt sells at Rs.7 a MDMK only four seats even though kg?” asks N. Kumar at Koneripatti in the latter first asked for seven and the Karur constituency. R. Murugesan scaled down its demand to five. The of Musiri and Saroja of Peramangalam MDMK wanted Arani and Tirupur but asked: “When salt sells at Rs.6 a kg and it did not get the two seats. The CPI kal uppu [salt crystals] at Rs.12 a kg, (M) and the CPI will contest from what is the use of getting rice at Re.1 a three constituencies each. kg?” Women are indignant that the On March 28, when AIADMK price of gingelly oil has soared to general secretary Jayalalithaa and Rs.125 a kg and good-quality Ponni PMK founder Dr. S. Ramadoss rice sells at Rs.30 a kg. They are an- stitched up an alliance, both sounded noyed with the State government for upbeat. Ramadoss called the increasing the bus fare through “sub- AIADMK-led front a “victorious alli- terfuge” – by introducing limited-stop ance which will win all the 40 seats”. services and new types of buses. Jayalalithaa described it as “a winning, If in 2004, a formidable alliance of unbeatable combination”. the DMK, the Congress, the MDMK, The DMK’s strategy is to go to the the PMK, the CPI and the Communist people on the strength of its achieve- Party of India (Marxist) trounced the ments. S. Muthukrishnan, DMK unit AIADMK-Bharatiya Janata Party president of Kalakkad town panchayat (BJP) alliance in all the 39 seats in the in Tirunelveli district, said, “We will go State and the one seat in Puducherry, to poor people and ask for votes on the the equations have changed dramat- basis of our performance.” In the three ically now. The alliance formed by the years of DMK rule, 7,500 teachers DMK, the Congress, the Dalit Pan- were appointed on the basis of “merit” thers of India (DPI) and the Indian in government schools, he said. About Union Muslim League (IUML) is a 28,000 people were appointed in the much weakened one now. that his party’s alliance is only “with Public Health Department as nurses While the contest will be essential- the people and God”. The BJP is in the and technical assistants and in other ly between the candidates of these two fray in 12 constituencies. jobs. Educated unemployed youth fronts, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida In the DMK-led alliance, the DMK were getting a monthly allowance. Kazhagam (DMDK), founded by film is contesting 21 seats, the Congress 16, A Rs.7.78-crore scheme was under actor Vijayakant, is ploughing a lonely the DPI two and the IUML one. This is way to provide water to Kalakkad from furrow. The DMDK has fielded candi- an uneasy alliance because the Con- the Tamiraparani river. The State go- dates in all the 39 constituencies in gress and the DPI are at daggers drawn vernment had set in motion a project Tamil Nadu and for the Puducherry on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. Until linking the Tamiraparani, the Nambi- seat, sticking to Vijayakant’s promise recently, the DPI, led by Thol. Thiru- yaru and the Irumeniyaru at a cost of

FRONTLINE 115 MAY 8, 2009 R. SENTHIL KUMAR/PTI

AIADMK GENERAL SECRETARY Jayalalithaa joining hands with Left leaders A.B. Bardhan (left) and Prakash Karat at a meeting in Chennai on April 16.

Rs.369 crore. This would make “arid tricts are ignored in industrial devel- There were four issues before the Ka- areas in Nanguneri, Sathankulam and opment. So my focus will be on nyakumari electorate, Radhakrishnan Radhapuram taluks bloom,” he industrial development, health, edu- said. They were the achievements of claimed. cation, roads and transport,” he said at the Vajpayee government (1999- Muthukrishnan said: “We have Azhagapuri village. His candidature 2004); what he (Radhakrishnan) did done so much for the people that I have has enthused the party’s cadre, who as an MP; what others failed to do; and the unshakeable conviction that we are sore with its earlier alliance with what he would do if elected again. He will win. Jayalalithaa can only criticise. the DMK. Pitted against him are P. accused the rival parties of abandon- She can never list her achievements Lingam of the CPI and a Congress can- ing the NDA government’s plan to es- made when she was Chief Minister didate (not named as on April 15). tablish a commercial harbour at [from 2001 to 2006].” Congressmen in Kanyakumari Colachel, of scrapping the “Sagar Ma- Attention is also focussed on the rose in a virtual mutiny against the la” scheme under which a harbour Sivaganga constituency, where Union Tamil Nadu Congress Committee would have been developed at Chinna Home Minister P. Chidambaram of (TNCC) leader K.V. Thangkabalu for Muttom, and of trying to shift the pro- the Congress will face R.S. Raja Kan- failing to get the seat for the Congress posed sub-centre of the Sports Author- nappan of the AIADMK in a tough and ceding it to the DMK. This also ity of India from Rajakkamangalam fight. Raja Kannappan, who was ear- angered the fishermen of Colachel, a near Nagercoil to Palayamkottai in Ti- lier a puissant Minister in the Jayala- traditional Congress base. Fishermen runelveli district. “People have seen lithaa Cabinet but defected to the such as A. Durairaj, K. Jerome, J. Kil- my performance and it is registered in DMK and crossed the floor again to the lari and A. John are a disillusioned lot. their hearts,” Radhakrishnan added. AIADMK this year, has been rewarded “The Congress has not been allotted Bellarmin, the incumbent CPI(M) with the AIADMK ticket. He is pop- the seat. What is the use of voting for MP, seems to be banking on his perfor- ular in the constituency. K. Chandran somebody else?” they asked. mance. His achievements include ob- of Karaikudi calls him “a super candi- It will be an interesting four-cor- taining administrative sanction for date”. He belongs to the Yadava com- nered contest in Kanyakumari, with establishing a fishing harbour at Then- munity, which has a sizable presence Pon. Radhakrishnan of the BJP, A.V. gaipattinam, expansion of the Indian in the constituency. Chidambaram’s Bellarmin of the CPI(M) and S. Austin Rare Earth complex at Manavalakur- campaign managers seem to be bank- of the DMDK in the fray. Disappoint- ichi, and setting up a regional Provi- ing on the rash of bank branches that ed Congressmen say they prefer Austin dent Fund office at Nagercoil. he has inaugurated in the to the DMK’s J. Helen Davidson. constituency. Christian fishermen at Reedemer WAITING FOR RELIEF If Puthiya Tamizhagam, a Dalit Street in Kanyakumari are unhappy The distress of the tsunami-affected party, has kept a low profile for the past with the DMK for not waiving their fishermen families along the Tamil few years, its founder Dr. K. Krish- loans or constructing a breakwater to Nadu coast and the despair of the vic- nasamy is back in the fray, in the Ten- prevent the sea erosion. tims of an agrarian crisis, particularly kasi (Reserved) constituency. His Radhakrishnan, who was elected in the delta region, have placed the campaign plank is development of the in 1999 and became a Union Minister, Congress and the DMK in an unen- southern districts. “The southern dis- is proving to be a strong contender. viable position. To win their confi-

116 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

dence and vote may prove an uphill segments. Agrarian crisis is likely to be task for the two parties. a major poll plank in the Assembly From Chennai North to Kanyaku- segments of Vedaranyam, Thiruthu- mari on the eastern coast, in at least 10 raippoondi (Reserved), Thiruvarur, constituencies, nine in Tamil Nadu Nannilam and the newly constituted and one in Puducherry, the fishing Keezhvelur (Reserved) constituency. community has a presence and its vote Tamil Nadu Vivasayigal Sangam will play a decisive role in determining general secretary K. Balakrishnan said the winner. that ad hoc measures such as the Thousands of people affected by Rs.7,000-crore loan waiver to agricul- the tsunami in 2004 are yet to get new turists trapped in debt following the homes as promised by the govern- withdrawal of subsidies on fertilizers, ment. The survivors’ complaints relate and the Re.1 a kg rice scheme would to the pace of rehabilitation, allotment not serve the long-term interests of of houses for fisherfolk in places far farmers or farm workers. The NREGS G. MOORTHY away from their work spot andnon- had come to the relief of labourers to DMDK PRESIDENT VIJAYAKANT availability of basic amenities. some extent, Balakrishnan said. There campaigning in Madurai on April 10. These apart, there are also charges had been migration of labour to indus- of discrimination against Dalits who trial centres such as Coimbatore, Tiru- won the seat by 1.17 lakh votes. Palani- used to help fishermen in their oper- pur, Chennai and Bangalore. The issue manickam’s popularity and experience ations, single women such as widows would be brought to the fore at least in will work in his favour. There is a small and divorcees, and families headed by the rural constituencies, he hoped. hurdle – his strained relations with women, in the distribution of benefits. Apart from the agrarian crisis and some local party leaders. A woman resident of Akkaraikkori, fishermen’s woes, the handling of the Chidambaram, in what is termed one of the worst-affected areas in Cud- Sri Lankan Tamil issue by the Con- as the Vanniar belt, about 100 km off dalore, told Frontline that 25 per cent gress and the DMK will also be a key Thanjavur, has drawn Statewide at- of the eligible families were yet to get issue, campaigners say. In the Naga- tention. Thol. Thirumavalavan is seek- new houses. There is no water facility pattinam (Reserved) constituency, sit- ing election after two unsuccessful in the area. As for the replacement of ting DMK MP A.K.S. Vijayan is attempts from here. He is facing a for- damaged boats, a fisherman said, “Not contesting for a third term. In 2004, he midable opponent in the sitting MP, E. all who had lost their boats were given defeated AIADMK’s Arjunan by 2.2 Ponnusami, of the PMK. In 2004, new ones, and at the same time many lakh votes. Challenging Vijayan this Ponnusami defeated Thirumavalavan who did not own a boat earlier were time is M. Selvaraj of the CPI, who has by about 90,000 votes. The margin given new boats.” represented Nagapattinam three was much more (1.2 lakhs) in 1999. “Fish workers’ anger against the times. His strength lies in the fact that Thirumavalavan, who contested both government will certainly reflect in the the three Assembly components (Na- the elections on his own, finds himself elections,” said Marimuthu, CPI(M) gapattinam, Thiruthuraippoondi and in the DMK-led front this time. MLA. He said that contrary to the go- Nannilam) are under the control of He said that the fact that he was vernment’s claim, the rehabilitation of Left parties, while only two (Vedara- fighting this time as part of a “strong tsunami victims was not yet complete nyam and Thiruvarur) are under DMK alliance” would be a major point fa- in the district. Apart from this, fish control. Keezhvelur is said to be a CPI vouring him. The discontent of a sec- workers were also agitated over the (M) bastion. tion of the electorate over the continued harassment they had to face Selvaraj is confident that the fail- performance of the sitting MP would often from the Sri Lanka Navy. ure of the DMK government to distrib- help him, he said. The welfare schemes “Our fishermen are frequently de- ute two acres of land each to the launched by the government and its tained by the Sri Lankan authorities landless and protect fishermen from achievements in general, he hoped, and our government has not ensured the Sri Lankan forces will help him get would ensure his victory. their safety and security,” said Mari- re-elected. Also in the race is Muthu- His poll plank is protecting the muthu. Marimuthu said that although kumar of the DMDK. State’s rights and the rights of Tamils the Nagapattinam Assembly constitu- In Thanjavur, Union Minister of all over the world, including Eelam ency, one of the six components of the State for Finance S.S. Palanimanick- Tamils. He said his party would strive Nagapattinam parliamentary seat, has am (DMK) is seeking election for a for the provision of land and houses a large presence of the fishing commu- fifth term and opposing him is Durai and 50 per cent reservation for the nity, agriculturists and agricultural Balakrishnan of the MDMK. The downtrodden sections and archaka workers account for the majority of the DMDK nominee for the seat is Rama- rights for women, and the industrial- electorate in the other five Assembly nathan. In 2004, Palanimanickam isation of the State.

FRONTLINE 117 MAY 8, 2009

Battle of Madurai

ALL eyes are on the Madurai con- way segment between Madurai and stituency in southern Tamil Nadu Dindigul by converting the metre where Chief Minister M. Karunanid- gauge line into broad gauge; leng- hi’s son M.K. Azhagiri is contesting thening the runway of the Madurai the elections for the first time. Az- airport, which led to the introduc- hagiri was rewarded with the DMK tion of more flights; starting a Ken- ticket after he enabled the party to driya Vidyalaya at win the Tirumangalam (near Mad- Tiruparankunram; setting up a urai) Assembly seat in a byelection in Doordarshan studio; expanding the January, defeating the AIADMK’s Madurai Rajaji Hospital to the un- candidate. Opposition parties called used land of the Anna bus terminus it a tainted victory because money and using the MP Local Areas Devel- and muscle power allegedly played a opment Fund of Rs.20 crore to pro- big role in it. vide education, health and other Azhagiri’s boast is that he will infrastructure facilities. He said he win the seat by a margin of three lakh would press for the establishment of votes. However, his main opponent, a Central university, a branch of An- P. Mohan of the CPI(M), is unfazed. na University and a Navodaya school Mohan, who was elected from the in Madurai. constituency in 1994 and 2004, is Azhagiri has made a range of determined to give Azhagiri a run for promises, which include building an his money. CPI(M) and AIADMK international airport; establishing a cadre have enmeshed like a battalion factory to produce jasmine oil; open-

ready to proceed to the battle front. S. JAMES ing a unit of the All India Institute of Evidence of this was available at M.K. AZHAGIRI, the DMK Medical Sciences, and making Mad- their joint meeting at Melur. Ap- candidate in Madurai. urai a “clean city, green city and plause broke out when Mohan told E-city”. the workers of the two parties: “The Mohan told Frontline: “The fo- Voters are not sure what is in DMK had [earlier] shown that it can cus of my campaign is on what I have store for them as the campaign hots win an election through money and done in Madurai in the past 10 years. up. A. Shanmuganathan of Tirup- rowdyism. It should be met with in Without showing any partiality, I arankunram said: “I am not able to Madurai. The blow we give [the ri- have done sincere service.” His list of fathom what is happening. But I can vals] at Madurai should be a blow in achievements, he says, includes the say it is not reasonable.” all the 40 constituencies.” removal of the bottleneck in the rail- T.S. Subramanian

Ponnusami recalled his service to propaganda secretary of the KARNATAKA his constituency through the allot- AIADMK, O.S. Manian. Mani Shan- ment substantial of funds for various kar Aiyar’s passion for panchayati raj MONEY AND POWER schemes, including many railway pro- and dedication to the cause of devolu- By Ravi Sharma in Bangalore jects. He supported the demand for tion of power to local bodies have re- CASH and caste are the catch- due compensation to those who pro- ceived wide acclaim. words in Karnataka politics as the vided their land for a new project of the Manian, who has been a member Congress, the BJP and the Janata Dal Neyveli Lignite Corporation and for of AIADMK since its inception in (Secular) vie for the 28 parliamentary provision of jobs to their wards. 1972, said both the Union and State seats that go to the polls on April 30. One of the key constituencies in governments had earned the displea- Ideology and party loyalty seem to the region is Mayiladuthurai, where sure of the people over acts of terro- have given way to winnability, money Union Minister for Panchayati Raj rism across the country and the sharp power and rapport with the electorate. Mani Shankar Aiyar is seeking re-elec- rise in the prices of essential commod- This was evident right from the selec- tion for the fourth time. Taking him on ities. Frequent power cuts had added tion of candidates to the defections in a multi-cornered contest is a former to the misery of the people, he said. and to the mode of campaigning.

118 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

Leading the way is the BJP, which, gress has improved its position and despite infighting, anti-incumbency won back many of its traditional vot- sentiment and a consolidation of sec- ers, especially those among the eco- ular votes in a few constituencies, has nomically backward sections, Dalits, been able to use its position as the the minorities, and even Vokkaligas ruling party to good effect and also and Lingayats. We have explained to attract a number of powerful com- the people the good work done by the munities and influential religious UPA government in the past five years heads to its side. It is confident of re- in areas such as the economy and law taining the 18 seats it won in 2004. and order and the measures it initiated (The Congress won eight seats and the such as the loan-waiver schemes for JD(S) won two.) farmers, financial assistance to minor- The BJP, which is largely seen as a ities and other weaker sections, sub- party supported by Lingayats (who sidised fertilizers and increased along with Vokkaligas form the two allocation for education and health. most influential communities in Kar- The people have also realised that the nataka), was able to win the support of BJP, for all its claims, is nowhere near Vokkaliga leaders such as D.B. being a value-based party.” Chandre Gowda, H.C. Srikantiah and Former Chief Minister M. Veerap-

L.R. Shivarame Gowda in its bid to win pa Moily, who is contesting in Chick- PTI seats in the old Mysore region, a ballapur, is optimistic about the B.S. YEDDYURAPPA, Karnataka stronghold of the JD(S). Congress’ chances. “Though the choice Chief Minister, with L.K. Advani at an Senior leaders in the BJP averred of candidates for certain constituen- election rally in Belgaum on April 6. that it was too early to make a defin- cies will cost us some seats, it would itive judgment on the Yeddyurappa not be surprising if we win over 18 party workers who are for the first time government – the BJP’s first-ever go- seats. The people have realised the fol- reaping the rewards of being part of vernment in the South. “This is a na- ly of coalition arrangements. They the ruling party. tional election and it should be decided want single-party rule and only the The inability of the Congress and on national issues. Why should the Congress has the required experience the JD(S) to come together in order to performance of a State government or to provide that,” he said. consolidate the secular vote has also regional issues be used to judge how Yeddyurappa has a tough job in helped the BJP. In the few seats where the BJP will run the country?” said a hand. A score below 18, the number of the JD(S) either officially withdrew leader. seats the BJP won in 2004, will be seen from the contest or put up weak candi- In the Assembly elections of May as a personal failure of the Chief Minis- dates in a purely unofficial arrange- 2008, the BJP won 110 of the 224 seats ter. However, the BJP has enough cash ment, the BJP was in a tizzy since the (it increased the tally to 115 after a to spend and has a large number of minorities would vote for the Congress round of byelections and poaching a rather than the BJP. Commenting on few legislators from the opposition). the reluctance of the JD(S) to join The party draws ample support from hands with the Congress, a senior Con- the Lingayat community, which feels gress leader said that was because that Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, was un- “Deve Gowda has his own arrange- justly robbed of his chance to become ments at the national level”. the Chief Minister by the JD(S), the Ironically, the Congress in Karna- BJP’s coalition partner in the previous taka is today run by leaders who were government. once part of the united Janata Dal or The Congress does not believe that its various avatars; some were even the BJP was able to turn this sympa- close followers of JD(S) leader and for- thy, seen during the Assembly elec- mer Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gow- tions, into a consolidated vote bank. da. KPCC president R.V. Deshpande, Explained Mallikarjuna Kharge, the Kuruba leader Siddaramaiah, B.L. Congress candidate in Gulbarga and Shankar, V.S. Ugrappa, M.P. Prakash until recently the Karnataka Pradesh and C.M. Ibrahim had all been part of Congress Committee (KPCC) presi- the Janata Dal. dent: “Some voters may prefer to stay K. MURALI KUMAR But with a number of them now on with the BJP, but what we have seen H.D. DEVE GOWDA, former Prime being bitterly opposed to Deve Gowda in the last nine months is that the Con- Minister and JD(S) supremo. and his family, an alliance between the

FRONTLINE 119 MAY 8, 2009

ANDHRA PRADESH Chiranjeevi factor

THE political script of film actor Ko- nidella Chiranjeevi seems to have gone awry, judging by the perfor- mance of his party in the first phase of polling, in Telangana and north coas- tal Andhra Pradesh. The Praja Rajyam does not ap- pear to be the blockbuster that Chi- ranjeevi, the “megastar”, promised it would be when he launched the party in Tirupati in August 2008. It looks NOAH SEELAM/AFP like a substandard remake of the Te- CHIRANJEEVI WITH SON Ram Charan inaugurating a "railway lugu Desam Party (TDP). procession" in Hyderabad on April 11. The party’s symbol is the rail engine. The Praja Rajyam may end up in the third place after the ruling Con- for a change. His slogan of ushering in marginalised and that welfare gress and the “grand alliance” (maha- “social justice” and “change” appealed schemes had been launched to sub- kootami) comprising the TDP, the to them. His party promised to give serve the interests of politicians. On Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), the the weaker sections a greater share of the issue of social justice, the party Communist Party of India (Marxist) the political cake by allotting them observed that except for two years, and the Communist Party of India. the ticket for at least 100 Assembly when a leader from a Scheduled Caste The Praja Rajyam’s strength lies seats. It also promised to root out cor- was the Chief Minister, the reins of in the coastal Andhra districts where ruption, provide better livelihood op- government had been held by the for- elections will be held in the second portunities, and bring about radical ward castes for 50 years. Of the 396 phase along with the Rayalaseema re- socio-economic changes. Ministers who took the oath between gion. Chiranjeevi enjoys a mass fol- “Development,” the party said, 1956 and 2008, roughly 70 per cent lowing among the youth and the was “a chimera” as Andhra Pradesh were from the upper castes, it said. Kapu community to which he be- ranked 10th among the 15 big States Equal status and opportunities were longs. The party is seen as “a spoiler”. in terms of Human Development In- still denied to 80 per cent of the peo- A year ago, Chiranjeevi was seen dex. It claimed that egocentric ap- ple, the party stated. as a messiah by sections that yearned proaches of leaders had deceived the This laudable vision, it appeared, two parties has always seemed unlike- move that is bound to infuriate many Congress or BJP bastions. An excep- ly. A senior Congress leader said that loyal party workers. But that is the tion is Koppal, where JD(S) leader Iq- for almost 15 years, Moily, Oscar Fer- price that the Congress has to pay for bal Ansari appears to be giving the BJP nandes, Margaret Alva and Janardha- roping in Siddaramaiah, who wields sleepless nights. The JD(S) campaign, na Poojary had been the eyes and ears considerable clout in his Kuruba com- besides stressing on the failures of the of the Congress high command in Kar- munity, which accounts for around 6 Yeddyurappa government and the at- nataka; the fate of most Congress per cent of the State’s electorate. Moi- tacks on churches and women, has workers was decided based on their ly, however, felt that the entry of lead- highlighted the achievements of the reports. ers such as Siddaramaiah had “helped 20-month-old H.D. Kumaraswamy For the Congress, the entry of the the Congress”. government. erstwhile Janata Dal leaders into its Though the JD(S) has considera- Kumaraswamy, Deve Gowda’s son, fold has meant that a few loyalists had ble strength among voters in the old ran a coalition government with the to be sidelined. The party is on the Mysore areas (especially Hassan, BJP. Said a JD(S) leader: “Kumaras- verge of replacing Kharge, a Dalit who Tumkur, Mandya and Bangalore Ru- wamy is our most popular leader. He has been with the party for 40 years, as ral), in other areas of the State, espe- knows the political situation, and un- the Leader of the Opposition in the cially in the northern and coastal like his father acts according to the State Assembly with Siddaramaiah – a regions, it finds it tough to break into situation. He is not rigid. We lost many

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would impress voters as the Congress matching the promises of his rivals is seen as a party dominated by Red- sop for sop, like free power supply to dys and the TDP by Kammas. But, farmers for 10 hours every day. He Chiranjeevi had other ideas. He en- has promised a package of essential trusted prime responsibilities of the food items at Rs.100 every month – party to his two actor-brothers, 25 kg of rice, 1 kg each of dal, cooking “Power Star” Pavan Kalyan and Na- oil and salt, and 500 gm of tamarind. gendra Babu, and appointed his The party has said it will respect brother-in-law and film producer Al- public opinion and hasten necessary lu Aravind its general secretary. legislative processes for the creation Discontent brewed within the of a separate State of Telangana. But, party. Party leaders felt there was a going by the trend of polling in Te- complete lack of transparency in the langana on April 16, the party may selection of candidates. C. Anjaneya not make a deep dent on the Con- Reddy, a retired IPS officer and vice- gress and TDP votes in the region. president of the Praja Rajyam, and In fact, the Praja Rajyam and the Parakala Prabhakar, the spokesper- TDP will have to contend with the son of the party, resigned from their latest twist given by Chief Minister posts. Prabhakar contradicted the Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy to the Te- claim that at least 38 nominees be- langana issue after polls concluded in longed to the Backward Classes. Sev- the region. Reddy, who has the rep- eral unsuccessful ticket aspirants utation of being the only leader who accused the leadership of collecting is not pro-Telangana by conviction, money for issuing the ticket. The ini- asked the voters of Rayalaseema and tial euphoria gave way to disappoint- Andhra to be cautious of the TRS and ment as many felt that the party was the TDP. He warned that if these being run like a family-owned busi- parties came to power, people of oth- ness. In several places, disgruntled er regions would become “aliens” in party men attacked Praja Rajyam of- Hyderabad and would find it difficult fices, causing confusion even in the to conduct business in a peaceful at- coastal districts. mosphere. He also cautioned that Chiranjeevi, in spite of being a pro-Telangana activists would not al- debutant in politics, has been making low water to flow into the Rayalasee- politically correct statements on sen- ma region. sitive issues such as Telangana, and S. Nagesh Kumar voters and the 2008 Assembly elec- savaraj Horatti, a senior JD(S) leader tions because of Deve Gowda’s reluc- and former Minister, said that the par- tance to hand over power to the BJP. ty did not want to waste time and mon- We pleaded with him, saying that we ey on seats that it did not stand a could pull down the BJP government chance to win. “Today the trend is for whenever we wanted. But Deve Gowda candidates to ask the party for funds, did not relent.” as they don’t want to fight the elections The JD(S) has put up no candi- on their own strength. During the last dates in the Shimoga, Bellary, Dhar- Assembly elections, we spent a lot of wad and Chikkodi constituencies. And money.” much to its chagrin, its candidate for Deve Gowda has been non-com- Bagalkot withdrew in favour of the mittal about the role he will play or the BJP. The party has also given the Man- stance of the Third Front in the post- galore and Udupi-Chikamagalur seats election situation. All that he has re- to its Third Front partners. peatedly said is that “the regional par- Explaining the absence of JD(S) ties will play a key role after the candidates in some constituencies, Ba- elections”. २

FRONTLINE 121 Cover Story MAY 8, 2009 Taking no chances

While the Modi factor plays a significant role in Gujarat, Raj Thackeray’s MNS can turn out to be a spoiler in the third phase of voting in Maharashtra.

Maharashtra, 26 in Gujarat, two in Goa and two in Narendra Modi’s “development Daman, Diu and Dadra and Nagar Haveli. Modi claims that the party will win 22 seats in agenda” can help the BJP win a Gujarat. Political observers, however, believe the fig- ure may be closer to 16-17. In the last election, the good number of seats. Terrorism, BJP won 14 seats and the Congress 12. It was a very slim margin, considering the fact that the BJP has resettlement of slum-dwellers and been winning the general elections with significant margins (20 seats in 1999). infrastructure development are Therefore, Modi is taking no chances. When the BJP’s list of candidates was announced, it was ob- among the key issues in . vious he had attempted to put together a winning GUJARAT formula. To begin with, not many of the previous candidates were given the party ticket. In choosing MODI MYTH the candidates, Modi has taken into account a com- By Anupama Katakam in Ahmedabad bination of factors: loyalty to him, caste identity, and NARENDRA MODI = BJP. That is how it is in the candidate’s position in the power structure of the Gujarat. Such is the Chief Minister’s hold over the constituency. He has also picked a few persons with State that even if the party appears a bit lost on the dubious backgrounds, which, observers say, could national stage, it may still win a significant number indicate his desperation. of seats in Gujarat solely on the strength of the Modi “The BJP will gain a substantial number of seats. factor. People vote Modi and, therefore, the BJP. The Perhaps not as many as in 1999 but definitely a party leadership has so much faith in Modi that it has reckonable figure,” says Achyut Yagnik of the Centre put him in charge of 78 Lok Sabha seats – 48 in for Social Knowledge and Action, an Ahmedabad- based non-governmental organisation working with vulnerable communities. “Over the past few years, Modi has managed to appeal to every level in Gujarat. Earlier, he was just popular with the middle class and the affluent sec- tions. He has worked hard on the rural population by understanding the caste and community dynamics. The minority population will never trust him and he makes little effort to woo this section,” says Yagnik. As in the previous elections, it will be a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP. In spite of a general discontent with the two parties, a third front has not emerged in the State. The Congress, it is felt, should have tried to re-establish itself in the past five years since it had won a fair number of seats in 2004. “Unfortunately, the Congress is just too weak in the State. It has no structure, no method of function- ing and no presence as an opposition party. Yet, it is

PTI an election machine. In the run-up to the polls, the AT AN ELECTION rally of Chief Minister Narendra Modi party suddenly comes alive and gives the BJP a run in Balasinor on April 14. for its money,” says Yagnik.

122 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

For instance, the Congress has po- Modi and even looking at him as a sitioned Suresh Patel against L.K. Ad- future Prime Minister. vani in the Gandhinagar constituency. “It is a shame that people of this Suresh Patel is influential in the Patel calibre have forgotten what he did in community, which has a massive pres- 2002,” says Cedric Prakash, director of ence in Ahmedabad. However, what Prashant: Centre for Human Rights, could upset the calculations of the Justice and Peace. Congress or the BJP is the presence of Modi is trying to distance himself the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has a from the carnage to gain legitimacy in following among the Kolis in the coas- the West. “These corporate honchos tal belt and in the tribal areas. are playing right into his hands. If Mo- No region in the State can claim to di has land to give away, then let him be the pocket borough of any partic- give it to us. We can build a school or a ular party because of the frequent mi- hospital,” says Prakash. ”How many gration of candidates between parties. jobs can a car plant create?” Any election here is mainly on the ba- Prakash says the minority com- sis of the personality of the candidate munities are persecuted in the State. rather than the party to which he or The poor are neglected. There is no she belongs. freedom of expression. Liberal think- Modi has developed a multi- ing is not allowed. For instance, films pronged strategy in the course of be- such as Parzania and Firaaq, which coming a popular figure in Gujarat deal with communal issues, were not politics. His Hindutva politics contin- released for viewing. Self-styled moral ues to appeal to the right-wing Guj- police have attacked artists in Vadod- arati middle class and affluent ara and Ahmedabad alleging obscenity sections. He has, however, attempted in their works. “Why would anyone to play it down of late as he realises that want to support a man who runs a it will not work at a national level. State like this?” asks Prakash. Modi launched the “Vibrant Guj- During the past few years, Modi arat” programme to convert the State has worked hard to improve his image. into a leading investment destination. Rs.20 a day, to feed a family of five at So much so that he has convinced jour- As part of this, Modi promised to cre- least.” nalists, particularly in the West, that ate infrastructure that matches global Rajesh Patel, a grocer in Ahmeda- he is the new face of India, that he was standards. The idea has appealed to bad, says “all this Vibrant Gujarat talk responsible for Gujarat becoming one the middle-income groups and the is for the rich. The poor and margin- of the top three States of India. rich. The urban poor and the rural alised do not benefit at all.” He says, Debunking this impression, Di- populace, however, are sceptical. “When we do not get regular and clean pankar Gupta, a sociology professor at “Can you see anything vibrant water in Ahmedabad, how will the Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, about our locality or our employment smaller cities and villages get it?” writes in a paper titled “Credit Mis- situation?” asks Noor Banu Sayed of On the other hand, Shailesh Shah, placed”: “In the years 1994-2001, Guj- Citizen Nagar, a colony which was cre- owner of a three-star hotel in Vadod- arat’s state domestic product ated in the wake of the 2002 post- ara, says the Modi government’s ag- registered a growth average of between Godhra riots. Located near the city’s gressive economic development 10 and 13 per cent. At the tail end of largest garbage dumping ground, the programme has indeed benefited him. this period Modi stepped in as Chief colony houses families that lost their He has experienced a significant rise in Minister. What then has Modi done homes in the carnage. business in the past year. In order to that is so special?” “There are no roads in this area. No further his economic development Gupta says, “this State was already buses come here. There are no health agenda, Modi offered Gujarat on a among the top three in India by 1990. facilities. One small primary school ex- plate to the Tata group to set up its It took Gujarat 20 years after it was ists. When the wind blows in this di- small-car project. Modi believes that created in 1960 to climb up from the rection, fumes from the garbage dump the Tatas have endorsed Gujarat as an eighth rank to the third spot. Twenty envelop the colony. Children suffer ideal destination for Indian entrepre- years of hard work, led primarily by from respiratory problems because of neurs. Now industrialists such as Sunil Congress governments, it may be add- this,” says Noor Banu Sayed. “There is Mittal of Bharti Telecom and Anil Am- ed. Over 35 per cent of its infrastructu- no work for our men. Boys as young as bani of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani ral augmentation for power 10 years work in restaurants, earning Group have started openly supporting generation happened between 1995

FRONTLINE 123 MAY 8, 2009

and 2000. If Gujarat today can show work anywhere. If someone gets us out to the setting up of a National Security off its treasure chest, it should grate- of this misery, then we might see a Guard centre in Mumbai. fully remember its pre-Modi past.” point in voting,” she says. Delimitation has evened out the According to Gupta, Modi was numbers, especially in the Mumbai shrewd enough to realise this and use MAHARASHTRA constituencies. Every constituency has the growth to his advantage. “Modi about 16 to 19 lakh voters. Constitu- was read as a one-talent wonder, good CLOSELY WATCHED encies now have mixed populations of at leading riots from the front, but lit- castes and communities, and the af- tle else. Hence, Gujarat would soon By Lyla Bavadam fluent and the poor, which should show negative economic figures and, UNLIKE the rest of Maharashtra, force candidates to move away from before long, its heirloom would be up where the battle is mainly between the the politics of religion. However, caste for sale. But when that did not happen, Congress-Nationalist Congress Party and community factors will continue Modi’s skills at book-keeping, rather and -BJP combines, the to play a role in Thane and Kalyan. than bloodletting, began to draw third and final phase of polling will see Thane has traditionally been a saf- attention.” some serious competition from con- fron fortress and parties have always tenders such as the Maharashtra Nav- fielded Brahmin candidates here, COMMUNAL ISSUES nirman Sena (MNS) and the though this time the fielding of an Oth- “I think by arresting Maya Kodnani, a Samajwadi Party. The seats that go to er Backward Classes Agari candidate Minister convicted for leading the rio- the polls on April 30 are Mumbai has served to strengthen the caste fac- ters in 2002, the BJP tried to make South, Mumbai South Central, Mum- tor. In Kalyan, the large number of some attempt to assure us it was doing bai North, Mumbai North West, North Indians have vowed to give a something,” says Rasheeda Ansari, an Mumbai North Central, Mumbai fitting reply to the Sena and the MNS activist who lives in Juhanagar, anoth- North East, Thane, and the newly cre- for their attacks on them. er riot refugee settlement. “For so ated Palghar, Bhiwandi and Kalyan, As far as the MNS is concerned, many years she has been roaming free. which came into being after the delim- Raj Thackeray’s goal seems to be not so Now, suddenly, just before the election itation exercise. much to win as to play the role of the you arrest her?” The main factors that will influen- spoiler. A senior Sena leader described Approximately 1,044 people died ce this phase of polling are security the MNS as a “fly buzzing around the in Gujarat in the communal violence measures; infrastructure develop- tiger’s head”. For Raj, these polls are an perpetrated by the saffron brigade in ment; slum rehousing; delimitation of opportunity to test the waters before 2002. Modi has been acquitted of any constituencies; and the creation of Raj the Assembly elections to be held later involvement in the riots. There are few Thackeray’s MNS. Predictably, secur- this year. signs of justice having been meted out ity and prevention of terrorist activ- Mumbai South, one of the wealth- to the riot victims. Muslims and Chris- ities are high on the agenda of iest constituencies in the country, is tians have been targeted consistently candidates, and promises range from home to the financial capital’s movers since 2002. Gujarat, a State tradition- cutting defence expenditure by manu- and shakers. Conversely, it is no ally known to welcome visitors, is now facturing arms in India, to autonomy stranger to terror attacks, having faced highly polarised. In fact, in cities such and better training for the police force them from 1993. The Sena candidate as Ahmedabad, Muslim and Hindus hopes to win the seat on the basis of the live in separate colonies. work done by the party during 26/11. “They think we are all terrorists. If, the Sena loses this seat, which it Any proper Muslim will tell you terro- wrested from the BJP, its bargaining rists have no religion,” says Khatoon power in the Assembly elections will Bibi of Citizen Nagar. “We have always drop. voted the Congress but even that party Delimitation also plays a big role in has not done anything for us. The big- Mumbai South because less affluent gest problem is that there is no work. neighbourhoods have been included in Besides, look at our living conditions,” this area and the number of registered she says, pointing to the squalor. “For- voters has shot up from 7.5 lakhs in get Muslims, no one does anything for 2004 to 19 lakhs. , the the poor.” sitting Congress MP and son of Union “Now the women have to earn a Petroleum Minister Murli Deora, will living. My neighbour makes Rs.5 for a benefit from the support of the af- dozen rakhis she strings. She makes PTI fluent, while the hopes of the Sena’s Rs.20-25 a day. With that she buys RAJ THACKERAY, THE Mohan Rawle are pinned on the lower foodstuffs. Her husband cannot find Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief. middle-class areas. Many are Maha-

124 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009

Though Priya Dutt’s main concern will be Mahesh Jethmalani, the fight will actually be a three-cornered one because the MNS will have to be taken seriously by the BJP. Like Mumbai South, this area too has a wide diversi- ty of voters. About 74 per cent of the votes will come from the slums though Priya Dutt will possibly find friends here because her father had opposed demolitions and evictions, often flying in the face of the law. With 30 per cent of the city’s major infrastructure projects under con- struction here, Mumbai North East is one to be watched. This is the only Mumbai seat that the NCP will be con- testing. Clearly, the Congress had the upper hand this time when it came to

PUNIT PARANJPE/REUTERS seat-sharing and the NCP had to be MILIND DEORA (LEFT), the Congress candidate for Mumbai South, with content with just one seat. The NCP’s actor Salman Khan at a campaign rally on April 12. Sanjay Patil will be up against the BJP’s two-time MP Kirit Somaiya and rashtrian areas but Milind Deora says, Indians will be an important issue here the MNS’ Shishir Shinde. Shinde is “People don’t vote for divisive parties. as in Kalyan and Thane. best known for pouring tar on the They vote for progress and I have done The seat seems to be a sure win for Wankhede Stadium’s cricket pitch in a lot in these five years.” Naik since the largely Maharashtrian order to prevent the Pakistani team Milind Deora’s belief that voters and Gujarati voters are unlikely to be from playing there, when he was in the choose productivity rather than com- drawn to Nirupam, and Parkar is far Shiv Sena. munity was proved in 2004 when too much of a novice to be a threat to The candidature of Shalini Thack- long-standing MP Manohar Joshi Naik. Nirupam is banking on the votes eray in Mumbai North West exposes from the Sena was unseated by Con- of the North Indians. But there is no the hypocrisy of the MNS. Giving the gressman Eknath Gaikwad in Mumbai reason why they will not vote in favour ticket to Shalini, a Punjabi who mar- South Central. About 50 per cent of the of Naik. Delimitation has also worked ried into the Thackeray family, does voters in this constituency are Mah- well for Naik. The constituency has 16 not trouble the anti-North Indian con- arashtrian, but with the inclusion of lakh voters and those areas that voted science of the MNS. The 40-year-old is two areas after delimitation, a large against Naik last time are no longer up against some veterans – the Sena’s number of Dalits and Muslims entered part of the newly defined Mumbai Gajanan Kirtikar, the Congress’ Guru- into the 15-lakh-strong voting popula- North. He will, however, have to be das Kamat and the S.P.’s . tion. Gaikwad is expected to retain the wary of the slum voters, who form Kamat’s campaign strategy is a re- seat. The Dharavi slum falls in this about 44 per cent of his constituency, flection of the state of politics in Mah- constituency and Gaikwad’s promise for he supported the eviction of old arashtra. He brushes off the of 300-square-foot permanent houses slums on forest land. competition, saying that he will re- under the Slum Redevelopment Ever since actor-turned-politician mind his Maharashtrian voters that Scheme will appeal to the voters, many Sunil Dutt fought from Mumbai North they continue to live in chawls and of whom are Dalits, like him. Central the seat has been in the public slums while their Sena leaders are cro- Ram Naik, the BJP veteran of eye. Sitting MP and Dutt’s daughter repatis. His North Indian voters will Mumbai North, refuses to hang up his Priya Dutt has held the seat for two hear how he has consistently opposed gloves. Naik lost his seat in 2004 to the terms and hopes to come out on top the MNS. And his Muslim voters will Congress candidate, actor Govinda, af- against her rivals, Mahesh Jethmalani be told that the S.P. has tied up with ter holding it for five terms. This time of the BJP and Shilpa Sarpotdar of the Kalyan Singh, who supported the Ba- around Naik faces Sanjay Nirupam of MNS. Shilpa is the daughter-in-law of bri Masjid demolition. The other seat the Congress and the MNS’ Shirish Madhukar Sarpotdar, the Sena MP in which the Muslim vote will play a Parkar Issues of concern to his voters who was convicted last year for in- determining role is Bhiwandi. Oddly, are “mainly housing and suburban rail citing violence during the 1992-93 no party has deployed a strong candi- travel” though the attacks on North post-Babri Masjid riots in Mumbai. date here. २

FRONTLINE 125 letters MAY 8, 2009

Music in stone Election 2009 THE Madurai Meenakshi temple is not only Tamil Nadu Untouchability Eradication Front with THE Cover Story with elec- “poetry in stone” (April 24) but also music in some useful interventions to tion reports from various stone because one can play all the seven notes secure the rights and privi- States reflected the ground leges of Dalits. But the irony realities and captured the on one of the stone pillars in the temple. is that much of the print and nation’s mood (“The Indian It was rightly chosen one of the seven won- electronic media and the ar- Open”, April 24). The issue ders in the country by NDTV. It has many ticulate sections of the intel- of April 10 gave the readers ligentsia say that such an insight into the real is- mini wonders inside. If the Golden Lotus movements “disturb” the sues before the people. Tank reminds one of the greatness of Tamil otherwise peaceful social SIDDHARTH CHATURVEDI history, the statues of 64 Nayanmars reflect environments. The cham- LUCKNOW pions of status quo thus con- THE 15th Lok Sabha Saiva spirituality. tribute to polluting young election is certainly going to A. JACOB SAHAYAM minds. defy all predictions, with a THIRUVANANTHAPURAM S.V. VENUGOPALAN swarm of regional parties CHENNAI forming an alliance with the Left as the nucleus, testing sues as all of them are re- the country with such the waters. Also, the Con- sponsible for the current speeches would do immense Meenakshi gress’ decision to go it alone debacle in education, agri- damage to its secular fabric. temple at the national level has led culture, health and other VINOD C. DIXIT to the development of new important sectors. So if AHMEDABAD THANK YOU for the article alliances and equations in these parties highlight In- THE people of Uttar on the newly renovated U.P. and Bihar. Sharad Pa- dia’s dismal record with re- Pradesh are bored with the Madurai Meenakshi tem- war’s NCP is also inching gard to health indicators, same manifesto promises ple. Your readers would closer to the Third Front, for instance, it will be self- presented by parties in every have been better served by a which is a setback to the defeating for them. election. The parties should schematic diagram showing Congress. Similarly, the ANKUR GARG, be more innovative. Now the layout of the temple. BJD’s decision to snap ties CHANDAUSI, U.P. people vote on the basis of While the authorities in with the BJP and join the THE Cover Story “The law- the parties’ performance charge of the restoration Third Front, and Nitish Ku- less and the law” has popped while in power. The parties have taken a lot of pains to mar’s quiet moves are clear up a million-dollar ques- try their best to win people’s do the right thing, it boggles indications of the current tion. I fully endorse the support only during the mind to see that they political flux. statement that “the law does elections. have cemented the temple Every party is only in- not limit the E.C.’s power to ASHISH K. CHOUDHARY tank. Apart from being an terested in making its mani- issue a binding directive to RANCHI integral aesthetic feature of festo more attractive than the BJP to refrain from any large South Indian tem- that of others by coming up fielding Varun Gandhi in Pi- ple, these artificial ponds with promises and offers of libhit”. India is a democratic Dalits help in harvesting rainwa- freebies that are difficult to nation and people have the THE story of continuing un- ter. They ensure that the keep. The people continue right to voice their views, touchability in Tamil Nadu aquifers in the area do not to be taken for a ride elec- but what was the necessity is disturbing (“Cracks in the run dry. tion after election. for Varun Gandhi to make wall”, April 24). The pho- VIJAY VENKATARAMAN K.R. SRINIVASAN such an inflammatory tograph of a graveyard with- CAMBRIDGE, SECUNDERABAD speech when the whole na- in the premises of a Dalit’s MASSACHUSETTS KUDOS for bringing the tion is trying hard to main- house was a sad revelation real issues into focus during tain unity of all faiths in the of the caste prejudices in Ta- ANNOUNCEMENT General Election 2009. But context of increasing terro- mil society. Letters, whether by surface mail or e-mail, must carry the full postal the major political parties rist activities? In this situa- The author has aptly address and the full name, or the are fighting shy of these is- tion, an attempt to divide credited the CPI(M) and the name with initials.

126 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Cover Story Parties speak

Performance, promises and prospects: A comparison of the election manifestos

of the Congress, the BJP and the CPI(M). BY VENKATESH ATHREYA

The CPI(M) manifesto argues that The Congress manifesto makes a series of what come across as somewhat arrogant assertions. It the Congress/UPA policies of claims that it is “... the only party that is forward- looking, the only party that believes a better future is liberalisation and privatisation have the right of every Indian”. Claiming that it is the bulwark against communalism, linguistic chauvi- greatly harmed the interests of rural nism, regional parochialism and casteism, the mani- festo dismisses the BJP as narrow, divisive and and urban workers, peasants, communal. Notwithstanding the fact that it was the Left that artisans, small entrepreneurs, enabled the Congress to be in power for most of the last five years, the manifesto accuses the Left of being women, students and youth. responsible for the electoral growth of the BJP, an accusation inconsistent with the fact that the BJP THE election manifestos of the Congress, the has grown mostly in the Congress-ruled States. It Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Communist lists as the achievements of the Congress the Nation- Party of India (Marxist) make interesting reading, al Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) and both individually and in mutual comparison (see the Right to Information Act (RTI), though it is well pages 131 to 134). It is a reflection of the prevalent known that these laws were the result of struggles of paradigm of discourse in the media that these mani- the Left and other social movements and that their festos have received little careful attention. A major final forms reflect to a considerable extent the inputs section of the media in all forms has tended to focus of these forces. on high decibel verbal duels among key protagonists It highlights increases in public expenditure on in rival formations rather than look at the substan- health and education, the farm loan waiver, Bharat tive issues facing the electorate. Nirman, the National Rural Health Mission The Congress, facing the electorate after five years in office as the leader of a coalition and having lost quite a few of the coalition partners in the run-up to the elections, is strident about its performance, dismissive of its rivals and opponents and very gen- erous in its poll promises. The BJP, weakened by the exit of many erstwhile allies but having had the advantage of releasing its manifesto well after the Congress, seeks to outdo the Congress in terms of promises while also bringing on board its core Hindutva agenda. The CPI(M) manifesto provides a systematic cri- tique of the ideology and performance of both the national parties, spells out the role of the Left during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) regime and

sets out its policies on a number of important issues S. SUBRAMANIUM before the people. It does not follow the Congress CONGRESS PRESIDENT SONIA Gandhi and and the BJP in providing a long list of promises but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh releasing the sets out an agenda of what it would fight for, and party’s manifesto for the Lok Sabha elections in seeks popular support for this agenda. New Delhi on March 24.

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(NRHM) and the Jawaharlal Nehru in a rather romantic vision of India’s National Urban Renewal Mission past. In its substantive part, the key (JNNURM), all of which taken togeth- slogans of the manifesto are “good go- er imply a step-up in government ex- vernance, development and security”. penditure. It is, however, deafeningly Good governance is assumed to hinge silent on its pursuit of liberalisation on the need for a “...determined leader measures in the areas of finance and who can restore Government’s cred- foreign investment as well as health ibility and the people’s confidence in and education. It claims to have done a themselves”. No prizes for guessing lot for the benefit of weaker sections who, the manifesto says, fills the bill. such as tribal people, Dalits and wom- The manifesto devotes a lot of en, and to have been impartial and space to the issue of security and pro- generous to State governments. poses a wholly law-and-order-driven Significantly, it does not list the approach to tackle external and inter- nuclear deal with the United States as nal threats to security. It says that the one of its achievements though it talks Prevention of Terrorism Act will be of civil nuclear agreements having revived and strengthened. It says that been entered into with many coun- the “Chhattisgarh Model” will be ap- tries, allegedly “entirely on our terms”. plied to counter the Maoists. This is a Predictably, it claims that the Indian reference to the notorious and thor- economy has been resilient in the face oughly discredited Salwa Judum op- of the global economic crisis and attri- R.V. MOORTHY erations under BJP dispensation in butes this “resilience” to Congress pol- L.K. ADVANI at the release of the Chhattisgarh. On foreign policy, the icies – more specifically to BJP’s election manifesto in manifesto says that the BJP believes in Nehru-Indira-Rajiv policies. The re- New Delhi on April 3. a multipolar world. peated invoking of a few leaders – Interestingly, the manifesto accus- mostly belonging to the Nehru family – series of promises pertaining to educa- es the Congress of fooling the people is a striking feature of the manifesto, tion, health, agriculture and farmers, on the India-U.S. nuclear deal by and one that one would hardly asso- small and medium industry, weaker claiming that it will light up homes. It ciate with election manifestos in most sections, local body funding, and so on. points out that nuclear power is enor- modern democracies, especially those The rather disingenuous claim is made mously expensive. It argues that the of the parliamentary type. that, while rejecting blind privatisa- deal disempowers India by making it The Congress manifesto promises tion, “…the Congress believes that the dependent on the U.S. for nuclear sup- faster and more inclusive growth if re- Indian people [sic] have every right to plies and tying India to discriminatory turned to power, conceding implicitly own part of the shares of public sector treaties. The manifesto proposes a that the growth so far has not been companies while the government re- constitutional amendment making it sufficiently inclusive. It also promises tains majority shareholding”(empha- “…mandatory for the government to “at least 100 days of work at a real wage sis added). It is difficult to see the aam seek Parliament’s approval/ratifica- of Rs.100 a day for everyone as an admi making a bid for a nice chunk of tion by two-thirds majority before entitlement under the NREGA”. It Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited signing any bilateral or multilateral makes a pledge “… to enact a Right to shares. On energy, the manifesto agreement that impinges on India’s Food law that guarantees access to suf- promises “a very significant increase strategic programmes, territorial in- ficient food for all people”, but qualifies in the share of nuclear power, both tegrity and economic interest”. this immediately by the phrase “partic- through domestic and imported tech- Like the Congress manifesto, the ularly the most vulnerable sections of nology, which has now been made pos- BJP manifesto makes a long list of society”. It adds by way of elaboration sible by the civil nuclear agreements”. promises concerning youth, women, that “…every family living below the This is a recipe for disaster, given the Scheduled Castes (S.Cs) and Sched- poverty line either in rural or urban exceptionally high costs of nuclear uled Tribes (S.Ts) and also minorities, areas will be entitled, by law, to 25 kg of power based on imported plants. although it accuses the Congress of us- rice or wheat a month at Rs.3 a kg.” ing the politics of fear to gain minority This hardly inspires confidence, given BJP’S ROMANTIC VISION support while keeping Muslims un- the way the government has played The BJP manifesto has a long preface derprivileged. There is no shortage ei- around with definitions and measure- that abounds in sweeping claims about ther of promises on health, education, ment of poverty to the detriment of the India’s past that need not detain us, welfare of senior citizens, and so on. poor. though they serve as a useful pointer to The unique agenda of the BJP These promises are followed by a the perspective of the BJP being mired manifesto surfaces in the very last sec-

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tion on “Preserving our cultural heri- tion and privatisation have greatly tage”. This has a strident assertion that harmed the interests of rural and ur- the “BJP will not allow anybody to ban workers, peasants, artisans, small touch the revered Ram Sethu”. It also entrepreneurs, women, students and asserts the BJP’s commitment to build youth. It points out that the agrarian a Ram temple at Ayodhya, removal of crisis, of which the large number of Article 370 and the status it confers on farmers’ suicides is a particularly trag- Jammu and Kashmir from the Consti- ic manifestation, has not abated. It tution, “relentless” pursuit of cow pro- traces the crisis to neoliberal policies tection and cleaning of the “revered” that have increased input costs, led to Ganga. great volatility in output prices, denied farmers adequate institutional credit, DUBIOUS RECORDS raised the real rate of interest, lowered The rhetoric of “communal” or “eco- rural development expenditures as a nomic growth” apart, the promises in share of the GDP and dismantled the both the Congress and the BJP mani- PDS in large parts of the country. It festos strain one’s credulity, given that notes that the dismantling of the PDS both these parties have been in power has led to a large number of poor peo- at the Centre for one or more terms ple being excluded from access to food. and in a number of States as well over The manifesto highlights the rise the years. Consider, for instance, the in food insecurity that has occurred

Congress and BJP promises on food VIJAY KUMAR JOSH /PTI under both the NDA and the UPA reg- security. The Congress promises 25 kg CPI(M) GENERAL SECRETARY imes. It also points out that the NDA of rice or wheat a month for poor hou- Prakash Karat releases his party’s and the UPA regimes have doled out seholds at Rs.3 a kg, while the BJP election manifesto in New Delhi on numerous tax and other concessions to promises 35 kg at Rs.2 a kg. March 16. big corporations, Indian and foreign, But what was the record of the Na- even while seeking to slash food and tional Democratic Alliance (NDA) and kespersons of the UPA government other pro-poor subsidies. It reminds UPA governments on food security? have, even while the UPA was gifting the electorate that even as the govern- The BJP, which now talks of a uni- generous tax reductions and exemp- ment claims that inflation has been versal public distribution system tions to the corporate sector, repeated- coming down rapidly in recent weeks (PDS), increased the issue price of ly called for a reduction of food and months, the prices of essential grain through the targeted PDS to the subsidies, though the food subsidy has commodities, especially food articles, so-called “above poverty line”, or APL, never crossed 1 per cent of India’s gross remain prohibitively high for a large households so sharply in 2000 that domestic product (GDP). segment of the population, both rural most APL households left the PDS. As Despite clear evidence that the tar- and urban. a result, offtake from PDS fell dramat- geted PDS excludes a large proportion It castigates the Congress for pur- ically, stocks with the Food Corpora- of poor households from access to sub- suing foreign policies completely de- tion of India (FCI) rose, and the nation sidised grain and that a universal PDS viating from the promise of saw the tragedy of 65 million tonnes of would not be much of a strain on the mutipolarity in the NCMP. It flays the grain stocks with the FCI deteriorating government’s budget, the UPA go- nuclear deal with the U.S., pointing while millions starved in the drought vernment has refused to consider the out that the Congress went ahead with years of 2002 and 2003. restoration of the universal PDS. the deal despite the majority opinion Worse, the NDA government ex- in Parliament being against it. Noting ported millions of tonnes of grain at A CRITIQUE OF POLICIES the continuity between NDA and UPA very low prices between July 2002 and The CPI(M)’s manifesto is in two foreign policies, it warns the people September 2003 through private parts. The first reviews the perfor- against the danger of India becoming a trade. The record of the UPA is not mance of the Congress-led UPA go- junior partner of the U.S. and of the much better. It refused to procure vernment against the commitments pitfalls of the Congress government’s wheat at affordable prices from farm- under the National Common Mini- pursuit of the U.S.-Israel-India axis, ers but allowed private trade – includ- mum Programme (NCMP) of that go- initiated by the BJP earlier. ing multinational agribusiness outfits vernment. The second part sets out the Dismissing the claim that the In- – to corner the wheat output, and end- CPI(M)’s policies pertaining to impor- dia-U.S. nuclear deal will light up rural ed up importing wheat at much higher tant issues facing the people. homes, it reminds us that the cost of prices just a few months later. The manifesto argues that the electricity from nuclear power will be a The Prime Minister and other spo- Congress/UPA policies of liberalisa- forbidding Rs.8 per unit. It provides a

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critique of Congress/UPA policies that and privatisation of profit-making and violated the spirit of federalism, as for The Congress potentially viable public sector instance, in the terms of reference for undertakings; the Thirteenth Finance Commission. manifesto does ● Protection of domestic industry from It argues that the Congress gave par- indiscriminate lowering of import du- liamentary norms short shrift by ex- not list the ties and takeover by foreign compa- tending the monsoon session of 2008 nies; until December and then doing away nuclear deal ● Encouragement to the private sector with the winter session altogether, not to invest in manufacturing and servic- wanting to face a confidence vote after with the U.S. es sectors; manufacturing a majority in July ● Prohibition of FDI in retail trade; 2008. It points to the telecom and oth- as one of its ● Regulation of domestic corporate er corruption scams that surfaced dur- retailers; ing UPA rule and the refusal of the achievements. ● Reversing FDI guidelines to prevent government to order probes into these backdoor entry of FDI; scams, even as the impression al policies over the past 10 years. In ● Protecting Indian interests and that emerged that it was using the Central addition, the BJP has been rabidly of developing countries in the ongoing Bureau of Investigation for partisan communal, while the Congress has Doha Round of World Trade purposes. been inconsistent in combating com- Organisation. Turning to the role played by the munalism. In the view of the CPI(M), The manifesto seeks to strengthen CPI(M) during UPA rule, the manifes- both parties have been following simi- democracy and federalism, including to notes that it was able to intervene lar foreign policies, pursuing strategic devolution of 50 per cent of tax reve- effectively, together with other Left partnership with the U.S., as its sub- nue to the States. It proposes the pur- and progressive forces, to improve the ordinate ally. suit of an independent, non-aligned draft versions of the RTI, the NREGA The CPI(M) manifesto argues for foreign policy, with greater attention and the Scheduled Tribes and other uncompromising secularism. to building relations with developing Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest It proposes an alternative econom- countries and with China, Russia, Bra- Rights) Act so that the final Acts in all ic policy framework that includes: zil and South Africa. It seeks a rework- these cases were of greater value to the ● Annual Plan Expenditure amount- ing of the India-U.S. nuclear deal to socially and economically vulnerable ing to 10 per cent of India’s current remove harmful provisions and enable sections. GDP; the pursuit of self-reliance in civilian The manifesto recalls the role of ● Halt to further tax concessions to nuclear energy. the party and the Left in stalling many corporates; It seeks an increase in public ex- drastic measures of financial liberal- ● A drive to unearth black money, es- penditure on education and health to 6 isation that the Congress initiated, pecially those stashed in Swiss banks per cent and 5 per cent of the GDP such as the Banking Regulation and other offshore tax havens; respectively. It proposes specific mea- (Amendment) Act, which would have ● Strong regulation of the financial sures to ensure equality for and empo- facilitated the takeover of Indian pri- sector and revival of development fi- werment of women, S.Cs and S.Ts and vate banks by foreign banks, the Bill to nance; minorities. It calls for the expansion of increase the foreign direct investment ● Expanding minimum support price employment guarantee to urban areas (FDI) cap in insurance to 49 per cent coverage to more crops and reviving as well, providing employment under from the present 26 per cent, and the commodity boards to set floor prices the NREGS to all those seeking it, and Bill to privatise the management of for commercial crops; decent minimum wages. The manifes- pension funds. It is now widely recog- ● Ensuring institutional credit to the to supports free/open source software nised that the fact of limited financial agricultural sector at a maximum 4 per and “...promotion of ‘knowledge com- liberalisation and the large presence of cent rate of interest; mons’ across disciplines such as bio- the public sector in finance have ● Universal PDS and supply of 14 es- technology and drug discovery”. It also helped moderate the negative impact sential commodities including sugar, calls for a National Judicial Commis- of the global financial crisis on the In- pulses and edible oils under the PDS; sion to ensure the accountability of the dian economy. ● Reduction of retail prices of petrol judiciary, and a Media Council to act as The CPI(M) manifesto is also very and diesel by cutting customs and ex- an independent regulatory body. critical of the BJP, describing it as “a cise duties on oil; Taking an overall view, the CPI regressive, backward-looking party ● Speedy and comprehensive steps for (M)’s manifesto offers a viewpoint and based on an obscurantist ideology”. It implementing pro-poor land reforms; perspective that is distinctly different notes that both the BJP and the Con- ● Strengthening and expansion of the from those of the Congress and the gress have pursued the same neoliber- public sector, and no disinvestment BJP. २

130 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 Cover Story

What is on offer

Salient features of the election manifestos of three major national parties. COMPILED BY R. VIJAYA SANKAR

CONGRESS BJP CPI(M)

INDUSTRY GAINST ‘blind ASSIVE public sector O strengthen public sector in Aprivatisation’; to uphold the Minvestments in Tcore and strategic areas; to people’s right to own part of the infrastructure programmes to promote its autonomy and shares of PSUs while the arrest loss of jobs; full support to efficiency; to halt privatisation of government retains majority the Hindustan Diamond profit-making PSUs; to shareholding; PSUs in the Corporation to help the industry encourage SMEs in labour- manufacturing and financial tide over the impact of the global intensive sectors; to protect sectors to remain public; to economic crisis; to promote traditional industries such as sustain and deepen the revival of SMEs in the retail sector to handloom and coir; to prevent manufacturing industry; foreign generate jobs; reforms to takeover of Indian firms by investment with emphasis on improve productivity and greater foreigners; to prohibit FDI in the maximising value addition and capital formation; to impose retail sector; to accept foreign export potential; policy of countervailing restrictions on capital to build productive attracting private investment for foreign companies, especially in capacities and acquire new oil exploration to be extended to the services sector; to strengthen technology; to amend the SEZ mineral resources; to ensure regulatory bodies to prevent Act to do away with myriad tax highest standards of corporate corporate fraud; to make India concessions and regulate land- governance in private proud of Indian products and use; to halt privatisation of the companies, especially to protect make Indian brands globally mining sector. small investors; ‘new deal’ for competitive; to make secret To revise minimum wage small and medium enterprises ballot compulsory for trade and price indices for workers; to (SMEs) and for first-generation union elections; ‘Workers’ bank’ implement recommendations of entrepreneurs, by giving them to deal with the requirements of the Standing Committee on greater access to collateral-free labour in organised and Labour on unorganised workers; credit, liberating them from unorganized sectors; adequate recognition for trade unions multiplicity of laws and forms compensation for retrenched through secret ballot; equal pay and freeing them from the labour, with the first option for women workers; to recognise clutches of inspectors; to give the being redeployment; to revive anganwadi, rural health and SMEs access to finance, minimum wages and expand midday meal workers as technology, marketing facilities safety net for the unorganised government employees; to and improved infrastructure. sector. protect the right to strike. AGRICULTURE ANK credit for small and O adopt a national land use PEEDY, comprehensive Bmarginal farmers at lower Tpolicy to regulate and Ssteps for land reforms; to rates of interest; interest relief to facilitate land management; to take over and distribute surplus farmers who repay bank loans on amend laws to rectify anomalies land above ceiling and hand over schedule; to make farming in land acquisition; to cultivable wasteland freely to profitable; programmes for compensate farmers at market landless and poor peasant diversification, agri-processing rates for land acquired for households, with priority to S.Cs and rural industrialisation; infrastructure purposes; not to and S.Ts; joint pattas and equal additional boost to dairying, allow conversion of fertile land land rights to women; to record aquaculture, fisheries, for industrial/commercial tenancy and protection of the horticulture, and sericulture; to projects or SEZs. To waive farm rights of tenants in all States; meet the special needs of crops loans; to set up a commission to new Land Acquisition Act to such as tea, coffee, rubber, study the debt crisis and find an protect landowners’ interest and spices, cashew and coconut; actionable solution within six ensure informed consent of those emphasis on wasteland months; pension scheme for affected; to prohibit land grab development and afforestation; a aged and helpless farmers; to for real estate; to ensure comprehensive crop insurance make agriculture profitable; to adequate compensation and schemes; to examine the implement farm income rehabilitation for all affected. To feasibility of direct income insurance scheme; to promote implement the pro-farmer support to farmers in nature-friendly cultivation and recommendations of the

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CONGRESS BJP CPI(M)

AGRICULTURE ecologically vulnerable regions; provide incentive for organic National Commission on to offer minimum support price farming; to create irrigation Farmers; to expand MSP and ensure procurement at the facilities for an additional 35 coverage to more crops, doorstep of farmers; to eliminate million hectares in five years; to including oilseeds; to revive controls on free movement of ensure supply of quality power, commodity boards to set floor farm commodities and on seeds and other inputs; to prices for commercial crops; to processing farm products; to strengthen national rural bank ensure institutional credit for ensure minimum, market rates and allied services; to invest agriculture sector at a maximum for land acquired for industrial heavily in agriculture and make rate of 4%; to expand public projects; to give farmers the the farm sector an equal engine investment in power supply in option of being stakeholders in of growth along with industry rural areas and stop privatisation such industrial projects; to and services sector; to promote of electricity; uninterrupted ensure passage of the National horticulture, floriculture, power supply to agriculture; to Rehabilitation and Resettlement pisciculture and poultry to expand irrigation facilities; to Bill; to amend the Land generate additional jobs and provide high quality inputs at Acquisition Act to protect the supplement incomes; not to affordable prices through public interests of land-owners. allow genetically modified seeds. production and marketing. EDUCATION O provide scholarships or of GDP on education UBLIC expenditure on Tloans without collateral 9%by involving the private Peducation at 6% of GDP; to repayable over a long period to sector; to remove the digital enact Right to Education Bill, students in any recognised divide; to strengthen, extend and with Centre bearing a major part institution; to add one model concretise the SSA; to revitalize of its financial commitment; to school in every block every year midday meal scheme; the local enact law to regulate fees, over the next five years; to community and parent-teacher admissions and curricula in implement fully the higher associations to decide primary private institutions; no FDI in education expansion programme school timings and vacations and higher education; to revise pay of setting up 8 new IITs, 7 new make them flexible; scales of elementary school IIMs, 5 new Indian Institutes of universalisation of secondary teachers; to regularise informal Science Education and Research, education; special emphasis on employment in teaching; to 30 new Central universities, 20 girls’ education at secondary ensure democratic rights of new Indian Institutes of level; assistance for national students, teachers and non- Information Technology and 374 madrassas modernisation teaching staff; to make students’ new colleges in educationally programme; new law to make union elections mandatory in deprived districts. ragging a criminal offence. higher education institutions. HEALTH O implement the National ‘HEALTH FOR ALL’ O raise public expenditure on TRural Health Mission with Ascheme through public- Thealth to 5% of GDP; to greater sense of urgency; to private participation; a strengthen and expand the ensure that every family living telephone service for medical public health system; to reverse below the poverty line is covered emergencies; war against the trend of privatisation of by the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima malnutrition; a national health care through the public- Yojana, which offers health authority to regulate private private partnerships; to ensure insurance to poor families, over hospitals, nursing homes; private regular supply of essential the next three years; to upgrade participation is welcome but medicine through the public district headquarters hospitals to cannot become a source of health system; to bring all provide quality healthy facilities unrestrained profit-making; to essential drugs under price to all. improve primary, maternal and control; to weed out hazardous child health care; to reduce formulations of medicines; to maternal and infant mortality; a revive the public sector in the vaccination programme against production of essential drugs hepatitis; to promote Ayurveda and vaccines; to prohibit and other alternative therapies; indiscriminate clinical trials by to strengthen and expand the big pharma companies; to public health system; to bring control and regulate clinical essential drugs under price trials strictly. control.

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CONGRESS BJP CPI(M)

ENVIRONMENT O accord the highest priority MPHASIS on energy security O make environmental Tto the Ganga River Basin Eand sustainable energy with Timpact assessment (EIA) Authority to ensure that clear targets for energy efficiency process transparent, accountable development needs are met in an and renewable energy; shift in and free of vested interests; to ecologically sustainable manner; subsidy from chemical fertilizers review the EIA Notification, to strengthen people’s and reward farmers who pursue 2009; to control emission of movements that work to protect conservation and enhance local greenhouse gases through energy and preserve the country’s bio- crop varieties; to make more efficient technologies and resources and ensure their effective laws protecting forests effective regulation; to promote sustainable use; to implement in and reserve parks; to provide solar and other non-conventional letter and spirit the National resources to protect forest land energy resources; to increase Action Plan for Climate Change and animal reserves; stringent Central allocations for National within the overall framework of punishment for wilful Calamity Relief Fund; more meeting the development destruction of forests and killing powers for States to tackle aspiration of people for higher of wildlife; a permanent task natural disasters; to check economic growth and higher force to protect tigers and lions; pollution of rivers and other standard of living. separate task forces to protect water bodies through effective elephants and to take care of regulation; to implement the bird sanctuaries; mission mode Coastal Zone Regulation Act and approach to clean all rivers; to the Wetlands Regulatory encourage citizens’ participation Authority Act to promote the in protecting environment. long-term interests of the people and the environment. SECULARISM & MINORITIES’ EITERATES ‘unflinching’ GAINST categorisation of OR separation of religion WELFARE Rresolve to combat Acommunities as it Fand politics by, if necessary, communalism of all kinds; to perpetuates “notions of imagined legal means; a comprehensive ensure the right to compensation discrimination and victimhood”; law against communal violence; and rehabilitation of victims of to implement policies committed speedy justice and adequate communal violence; NHRC to to massive expansion of modern compensation to victims of monitor investigation and trial in education among Muslims, Gujarat pogrom; cases of communal violence; to particularly girls, through a implementation of Justice Sri ensure full protection of all network of schools in public- Krishna Commission report; to constitutional rights of private partnership programme; purge school textbooks of minorities; to increase capital assistance to new communal bias; to rein in substantially minorities’ educational projects in low- organisations spreading representation in public income minority areas; cash communal hate and attacking administration; to ensure incentives for the education of minorities; to enforce Protection reservation for minorities in girls; computer centres in low- of Places of Worship Act to employment and education at income urban areas and most prevent raising of disputes over the national level; to establish a backward districts; to revitalise religious places; to form Equal Wakf Development Corporation, Ministry of Minority Affairs into Opportunity Commission to a national Unani university and a hub for economic projects; to redress discrimination against to double the corpus of the lift community relations from minorities; to formulate a sub- Maulana Azad Educational “the morass of plan for minorities to implement Foundation; to establish Equal misunderstanding”; to set up a Sachar recommendations; Opportunities Commission. permanent interfaith special initiatives for consultative mechanism to build employment, education and harmony and trust among health in districts with Muslim communities and to hold concentration; to include OBC interfaith dialogue between Muslims in OBC quota with Hindus and Christians on all specific Statewise allocations; to aspects of life, including religious earmark 15% priority sector conversions. lending by banks; subsidised credit to Muslim youth; to promote teaching of Urdu in schools.

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CONGRESS BJP CPI(M)

SOCIAL JUSTICE REE education for Dalits and O boost opportunities for TRINGENT action against FAdivasis at primary, Tentrepreneurship and Suntouchability and atrocities secondary and university levels; commerce among Dalits, OBCs against S.Cs; to increase to pay coaching fees for all and other deprived sections; to allocations under the Special entrance exams for at least one deal firmly with those Component Plan; a National lakh S.C./S.T students every committing atrocities against Programme of Minor Irrigation year; to increase national Dalits and tribal people; special for Dalit and Adivasi lands; scholarships to these sections; to educational facilities through the reservation for Dalit Christians increase allocation under the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan; water, and Dalit Muslims; a law on Special Component Plan for the health, sanitation for all families reservation in the private sector; S.Cs and for the Sub-Plan for and habitations; to create a to fill backlogs in reserved seats tribal people in accordance with special component for deprived and posts and promotions for their proportion in the sections in all development S.Cs with a special recruitment population; to continue with the schemes; to set up an ‘Extremely drive; to increase scholarships drive to fill job vacancies in the Backward Communities and hostel facilities and curb government through direct Development Bank’ to promote dropout rates among S.Cs; total recruitment of S.Cs and S.Ts; to skill enhancement through liberation and full rehabilitation pursue affirmative active action learn-and-earn schemes; to of scavengers and bonded for S.Cs and S.Ts in the private introduce education and job labour; to regularise contract sector; to provide reservation for quotas on the basis of economic labour in safai services; to extend economically weaker sections of criteria for all economically OBC reservation to private all communities without weaker sections of society other educational institutions. To fill prejudice to existing OBC, S.C. than S.Cs, S.Ts and OBCs who vacant S.T. posts in government; and S.T. reservation; preference will continue to enjoy quota to protect land rights of Adivasis; for S.Cs and S.Ts in awarding benefits; to initiate ‘Van Bandhu to implement fully the Forest government contracts to Kalyan Yojana’ at the national Rights Act, 2006; autonomy for stimulate entrepreneurial level, to be overseen by a ‘Tribal tribal compact areas under the activities among these groups. Development Authority’. Fifth or Sixth Schedule. FOREIGN POLICY O continue to pursue an O build a multipolar world; OR an independent, non- Tindependent, pro-India Tto strengthen the strategic Faligned policy; to revive foreign policy; to continue to partnership with the U.S., NAM on a new basis; to improve strive for enduring peace and without compromising on relations with China; to oppose close economic relations with national interest; to strengthen U.S. military interventions; to Pakistan and encourage people- relations with Arab countries distance from U.S.-sponsored to-people contacts if it takes and pursue enhanced ‘war on terror’; to promote credible action against those cooperation with Israel; to revive people-to-people relations with responsible for the Mumbai the dialogue with China to solve Pakistan and resume India- carnage and dismantles the the border dispute; no Pakistan dialogue at a suitable terrorist networks operating comprehensive dialogue with time; diplomatic and political from its soil; to help the Sri Pakistan unless it dismantles the efforts to protect the lives of Lankan government and the terrorist infrastructure on its Tamils in the war zone in Sri ethnic Tamils reach an soil, actively engages in Lanka; to work for immediate understanding as envisaged in prosecuting terror elements and political settlement based the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement of organisations, puts an end to the autonomy for Tamil-speaking 1987; to deepen bilateral ties use of cross-border terrorism as areas within the framework of with Bangladesh; support for the an instrument of state policy, united Sri Lanka; to support the legitimate and peaceful stops using third-country Palestinian cause and sever aspirations of the long-suffering territories to launch terror military and security ties with Palestine people and to urge for attacks on India and hands over Israel. To review and rework the the establishment of a viable individuals who committed 123 Agreement with the U.S.; to Palestinian state at the earliest; crimes in India; believes in Sri pursue universal disarmament to deepen further relations with Lanka’s right to deal with through the U.N.; to abrogate the United States, Russia, China terrorism on its soil; at the same the Defence Framework and Japan and European time the rights of Tamils must be Agreement with the U.S. and countries. protected by the government in stop India-U.S. joint military Colombo. exercises.

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Published on alternate Saturdays.WPP No.CPMG/AP/SD-15/WPP/2008-2010 & MH/MR/South-180/2009-11.Postal Regn. No.TN/ARD/22/09-11. RNI No.42591/84