FRONTLINEMAY 8, 2009 WWW.FRONTLINE.IN INDIA’S NATIONAL MAGAZINE RS.20 WORLD AFFAIRS AFGHANISTAN ENVIRONMENT KERALA ESSAY TIBET Obama’s war 44 Ruining Vembanad 64 Case for diplomacy 83 Polity in flux As the electoral contest tightens, many political parties keep their options open for post-election deal-making VOLUME 26 NUMBER 9 APRIL 25 - MAY 8, 2009 ISSN 0970-1710 WWW.FRONTLINE.IN WORLD AFFAIRS COVER STORY Polity in flux Obama’s war in Afghanistan 44 The election scene becomes complex as po- North Korea’s litical parties eye post-poll regrouping. 4 ’satellite’ shock 51 Israel: Right on top 55 A plan and a half 58 NATO at 60: Signs of fatigue 61 ENVIRONMENT Kerala’s Vembanad Lake: Wetland or wasteland? 64 ESSAY RELATED STORIES Tibet: A case for Interview: Madhya Pradesh: quiet diplomacy 83 Prakash Karat 8 Muslim factor 29 INTERVIEW Interview: West Bengal: Elizabeth H. Blackburn, L.K. Advani 10 Tough fight 31 Professor of Biology and Uttar Pradesh: Assam: Physiology, University Minority factor 12 Alliances on test 34 of California 91 Bihar: Sikkim: FOCUS: CAREER & Social equations 14 Smooth sailing 39 EDUCATION IN DELHI Haryana: Tamil Nadu: Training minds 100 Faction fights 17 Banking on populism 114 Interviews: 118 P.S. Ravindran, Director, Punjab: Back to Battle of Madurai Vajiram & Ravi 101 identity politics 19 Karnataka: V.P. Gupta, Director, Interview: Money & power 118 Rau’s IAS Study Circle 104 Amarinder Singh 20 Andhra Pradesh: A.R. Khan, Director, Delhi: Chiranjeevi factor 120 Khan Study Group 106 Edge for Congress 23 Gujarat: Modi myth? 122 Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri, Indian Institute of Jammu & Kashmir: Maharashtra: Planning and Management 108 New equations 25 Closely watched 124 Nuzhat Hasan, Director, Rajasthan: On manifestos 127 National Book Trust, India 110 Surprises galore 27 What is on offer 131 COLUMN C.P. Chandrasekhar: On the Cover Fatal attraction 41 WORLD AFFAIRS At an election meeting addressed by Bhaskar Ghose: Obama has managed to raise Praja Rajyam chief Chiranjeevi in Krishna district, Andhra Pradesh. CBI as a political tool 89 the monthly average kill rate Praful Bidwai: achieved by George Bush, from PHOTOGRAPHS:CH VIJAYA BHASKAR For nuclear sanity 96 32 during 2008 to 45 a month COVER DESIGN: U. UDAYA SHANKAR R.K. Raghavan: Will the (February-March 2009). 44 Published by N. RAM, Kasturi Buildings, elections be peaceful? 98 ENVIRONMENT 859 & 860, Anna Salai, Chennai-600 002 and Jayati Ghosh: The Vembanad lake, the Printed by P. Ranga Reddy at Kala Jyothi The G-20 summit: Process Private Limited, Survey No. 185, second largest wetland in Fanfare & failure 112 Kondapur, Ranga Reddy District-500 133, India, is in a state of Andhra Pradesh on behalf of Kasturi & Sons Ltd., UPDATE precipitous decline. 64 Chennai-600 002. Life term for Fujimori 54 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: N. RAM (Editor responsible ESSAY for selection of news under the PRB Act). All BOOKS 73 The record of the Dalai Lama’s rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. THE ENGLISH talks with Jawaharlal Nehru LANGUAGE 82 when they first met after he left e-mail: [email protected] Tibet yields conclusions that are Frontline is not responsible for the content of LETTERS 126 still relevant. 83 external Internet sites. FRONTLINE 3 Cover Story MAY 8, 2009 POLITY IN FLUX ARKO DATTA/REUTERS The election scene becomes more complex as the political parties make moves with post-poll deals in view. BY VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN IN NEW DELHI The number of States that can throw trends in the first phase of the general elections started pouring into his office from different parts of up surprise results is growing. The the country. Barely an hour earlier, the leader was waxing eloquent on how a special team of experts from various disciplines was drawing up plans for Congress and the BJP, the major the first 100 days of the next Congress-led govern- ment. “All those who have left us temporarily will contenders for power, are worried come back once the polls are over. We will have enough seats to attract them back,” the leader had that the emerging trends may upset said. The reports about the polling trends seem to have shaken his confidence. their calculations. The tone and tenor of the discussions that went “THE number of jokers in the pack is increasing. on among the leader and his colleagues that evening Without doubt, this is not good news for the polity or indicated that the party’s calculations did not match for political stability.” This is what a senior Congress its expectations. While the Congress had expected leader told a group of friends and party activists on setbacks in Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand among the evening of April 16, even as reports on the polling the 14 States and three Union Territories that went 4 FRONTLINE MAY 8, 2009 RANJEET KUMAR PTI PEDRO UGARTE/AFP V. GANESAN RAJEEV BHATT PRAKASH SINGH/AFP SUPPORTERS WAVE TO Sonia Gandhi, Congress president, (CLOCKWISE FROM TOP left): Nitish Kumar, at an election rally in Sakoli village, 95 km from Nagpur, Lalu Prasad, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, on April 10. Sharad Pawar and Jayalalithaa. to the polls on April 16, it had firmly Uttar Pradesh, were cited as the rea- trend in Maharashtra, the BJP is not believed that it would make major sons for this. sure if it will be able to push the Con- gains in Kerala and Orissa and minor It was not the Congress alone that gress to the number two position in the gains in Uttar Pradesh. It had also ex- got its expectations wrong. The debate remaining phases. The doubt was ex- pected to hold on to its previous score among several Bharatiya Janata Party pressed by none other than Sushma in Maharashtra. The feedback that the (BJP) insiders in Delhi was that the Swaraj, former Union Minister and se- Congress leader received from the party’s performance in Maharashtra nior BJP leader. Her comment, made a States did confirm the expected revers- was not what had been projected in the few days before the first round of poll- es in Andhra Pradesh. However, affir- detailed study notes it had prepared. ing, was that she was not sure whether mation about any gains was absent in However, there was also the assump- the BJP-led National Democratic Alli- the reports from Kerala, Orissa and tion that the gains accrued to the BJP ance (NDA) would get a majority or Uttar Pradesh. A variety of factors, in eastern Uttar Pradesh were much whether the BJP would emerge as the ranging from organisational apathy to higher than its expectations. As per the single largest party. Other top leaders the presence of new regional parties, feedback available to the BJP leader- of the BJP, including party president such as the Praja Rajyam in Andhra ship, the party appears to have main- Rajnath Singh and prime ministerial Pradesh, and small-time spoilers, such tained its position of advantage in candidate L.K. Advani, however, con- as the Ulema Council (U.C.) in eastern Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Given the tinue to maintain that the BJP would FRONTLINE 5 MAY 8, 2009 SAURABH DAS/AP AJIT SOLANKI/AP SONIA GANDHI ADDRESSING a Congress election L.K. ADVANI AT a party workers’ meeting in rally in Varanasi, which went to the polls on April 16. Gandhinagar, his constituency, on April 8. emerge as the single largest party. the two main contenders. The Nation- would even out their losses. For ex- Congress leaders nurture similar alist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sha- ample, it was expected that the Con- hopes. rad Pawar, a constituent of the United gress would make some gains in In a nutshell, the message that Progressive Alliance (UPA), repeated- Punjab (where it got only two of the 13 emanated from the camps of the two ly stressed the importance of an alli- seats in 2004) and that would be nulli- big parties was that their calculations ance with important Left parties after fied in Haryana, where it had nine out had gone awry. Both the parties had the polls. On the NDA side, Bihar of 10. In Gujarat, the BJP was expected displayed a penchant for miscalcula- Chief Minister and Janata Dal (Unit- to improve upon its 2004 tally of 14 out tion while assessing the affinity or lack ed) leader Nitish Kumar came up with of 26, while the tally of the BJP-Shiv of it of their existing and potential alli- an ambiguous statement: “Today, I am Sena combine in Maharashtra – 25 out ance partners. This inability was evi- with the NDA, who knows what will of 48 – was expected to come down. In dent when the BJP lost an ally in the happen tomorrow?” Karnataka, too, the BJP was expected Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa and According to an associate of the to maintain its high score (18 out of the Congress watched the spectacle of senior Congress leader, what was most 28). the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata worrying was that four more phases of But as electioneering gathered mo- Dal (RJD) and the Ramvilas Paswan- polling remained. “Things can get mentum, with dramatic developments led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) charting quite volatile during this period. The such as the one that saw journalist their own independent course in asso- big question is whether the leadership Jarnail Singh aim a shoe at Home ciation with a potential Congress ally, of our party will have the kind of skills Minister P. Chidambaram at a press the Samajwadi Party (S.P.).