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Construction 15Oct15 CONSTRUCTION Sector report Toll hikes: NPV neutral impact 15 Oct 2015 OVERWEIGHT Mak Hoy Ken (Maintained) [email protected] 03-2036 2294 Rationale for report: Sector update Investment Highlights Higher toll rates from 15 October. The local press reported that toll charges for 18 highways in Malaysia will be raised between RM0.10 and RM3 effective from today. Out of this total, 12 are major highway concessions operating within the Klang Valley: Kuala Lumpur-Karak (KLK) Expressway, Maju Expressway (MEX), Kajang Dispersal Link Expressway (SILK), Duta-Ulu Kelang Expressway (DUKE), Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel (SMART), KL-Kuala Selangor Expressway (LATAR), Sungai Besi Highway (BESRAYA), New Pantai Expressway (NPE), Kajang Seremban Highway (LEKAS), Damansara Puchong Highway (LDP), Western Kuala Lumpur Traffic Dispersal Scheme (SPRINT) and Cheras- Kajang Highway (Grand Saga). Other highways that follow suit include the South Klang Valley Expressway (SKVE), Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Kemuning Shah Alam Highway (LKSA), Ampang Kuala Lumpur Elevated Highway (AKLEH), Senai Desaru Expressway (SDE) and Butterworth Outer Ring Road (LLB). Status quo for PLUS-owned highways. Altogether, toll rates for all eight highways under government-backed PLUS Expressway Bhd remained unchanged at this juncture. They are the North South Expressway (NSE), New Klang Valley Expressway (NKVE), Federal Highway Route 2, Seremban Port Dickson Highway, North South Expressway Central Link (ELITE), Second Link Malaysia Singapore (Linkedua), Butterworth Kulim Expressway (BKE) and Penang Bridge. Part of fiscal consolidation moves. We believe this is part of Malaysian government’s move to meet its budget deficit target of 3.2% for 2015 (2014: 3.5%) and support its sovereign rating amid a challenging global economic backdrop. Prior to this, the government had since 2008, delayed toll rates hikes to soften the financial impact on toll users. Notably, federal compensation to highway concessionaires totaled RM1.1bil between 2008 and 2013 (2014: RM403mil). Using 2014 as a base, this could potentially translate into over RM2bil in ‘savings’ from toll compensation obligations over the next five years under the 11th Malaysia Plan period (2016-2020), which the government can redeploy for other productive uses (e.g. public infrastructure) if it chooses so, we believe. For construction stocks within our coverage, Gamuda (KESAS, SPRINT, LDP, SMART tunnel), IJM (LEKAS, NPE, Besraya) and MRCB have exposure to Malaysian highways. Only the former two have toll concessions which are due for toll hikes under the latest round. Toll assets account for 18% of Gamuda’s NAV; IJM (27%); and MRCB (8%). (1) Gamuda: Comparing for Class 1 vehicles, the toll rates at LDP have been revised upwards from RM1.60 to RM2.10 per trip (+31%). For SPRINT, the new toll rates are as follow: Damansara Toll Plaza (from RM1 to RM2: +100%); Pantai Toll Plaza (from RM1.50. to RM2.50: +67%) and Bukit Kiara Toll Plaza (from RM2 to RM3: +50%). SMART Highway has revised upwards its toll charges to RM3 (from RM2 previously: +50%). (2) IJM: Toll rates at Besraya will be raised to RM2 at both north and south toll plazas at Mines in Sg.Besi (previous: RM1.30 or +54%). Over at NPE, the new rates at Pantai Dalam and PJS5 Toll Plaza have been raised to RM2.30 from 1.60 (+44%) although it has been maintained at RM1 for the PJS2 Toll Plaza. LEKAS announced a toll increase of between 10 sen and RM2 for its Kajang Selatan, Semenyih, Pajam, Mantin, Setul and Jelebu toll plazas. (3) MRCB: There are no immediate changes to the toll rates for its Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL) concession which had only commenced operations in August 2014. MRCB had also disposed off its 20% stake in the DUKE highway concession last year for RM200mil. NPV Neutral: Based on historical trends, the latest round of toll revisions would likely trigger a dip in overall traffic performance over the next two to three months, although the actual quantum could be negligible. Furthermore, toll concessionaires have in the past, been duly compensated whenever the Federal government did not allow such increases as per concession agreements. Normally, compensation was either by way of an extension of the concession period or cash payments. Hence, we make no changes to our earnings forecast for Gamuda, IJM and MRCB. The impact from these new toll rates will largely be NPV neutral as our models had already assumed cash compensation for any non-increase in scheduled toll hikes. PP 12246/05/2013 (032379) Construction 15 Oct 2015 EXHIBIT 1: NEW TOLL FARES FOR SELECT MALAYSIAN HIGHWAYS EFFECTIVE FROM 15 OCTOBER (CLASS 1) Source: The Malaysian Insider, AmResearch Published by The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmResearch Sdn Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this AmResearch Sdn Bhd (335015-P) report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmResearch Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the 15th Floor Bangunan AmBank Group securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmInvestment Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of 55 Jalan Raja Chulan such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are 50200 Kuala Lumpur reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not Tel: ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 0 - 2444 (research) represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise F a x : ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 8 - 3 1 6 2 from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Printed by For AmResearch Sdn Bhd AmResearch Sdn Bhd (335015-P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 15th Floor Bangunan AmBank Group 55 Jalan Raja Chulan 50200 Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 0 - 2 4 4 4 (research) F a x : ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 8 - 3 1 6 2 Benny Chew Managing Director AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2 .
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