Investing in urban sustainable development in Poland Territorial diagnosis of competitiveness of urban areas in Poland Case study: Wielkopolska Michał Męczyński, Jędrzej Gadziński 19 Table of contents 1. Introduction 4 1.1. General objective of the study 4 1.2. Methodology 6 1.2.1. Quantitative research methods 8 1.2.2. Qualitative research methods – expert interviews 15 1.3. Review of the literature and statistical data 17 2. Demographic situation in Poland 19 2.1. Population number 19 2.2. Natural increase 21 2.3. Migration 26 2.3.1. Foreign migration after 1945 26 2.3.2. Foreign migration after 1989 29 2.3.3. Temporary foreign migration 34 2.4. Movement between urban-rural and urban-urban areas 43 2.5. Growth or decline scenarios for Poland and its urban areas 49 2.6. Scenarios derived from the observed trends 57 3. Territorial diagnostics – the competitiveness 63 of urban areas in Poland 3.1. Development path of urban areas in Poland 63 3.1.1. Development of the settlement system before World War II 63 3.1.2. Development of the settlement system after 1945 66 3.2. Evaluation of the competitiveness of Polish regions 70 3.2.1. Economic competitiveness 72 3.2.2. People – demographic and human resources 75 3.2.3. Society – social and political competitiveness 77 3.2.4. Place and environmental competitiveness 79 3.3. Development of urban metropolises in Poland 81 3.4. Growth and decline analysis 88 3.5. Supply and demand for urban assets and services 94 3.5.1. Demographic and human capital resources 96 3.5.2. Urban physical assets – social infrastructure and quality of place 98 3.5.3. Economy and urban governance 102 20 4. Identification of the most relevant mid- to long-term urban investment strategy for Poland – case of the Wielkopolska region 105 4.1. Development path of the region 105 4.2. Urban areas 109 4.3. Urban competitiveness evaluation 118 4.3.1. Demography – people 119 4.3.2. Economic potential 122 4.3.3. Social infrastructure 126 4.3.4. Quality of place – technical infrastructure and housing 129 4.3.5. Governance and local activity 133 4.3.6. General view 135 4.4. Poznań Metropolitan Area as a model region for the Urban 139 Development Funds 4.4.1. Development path of Poznań 139 4.4.2. Growth and decline analysis 144 4.4.3. The competitiveness of the Poznań Metropolitan Area 149 4.5. Objectives of urban investment strategy 157 5. Summary and conclusions 164 Bibliography 176 Appendix 1. Interview structure 181 Appendix 2. Socio-economic characteristics in voivodeships in 2008 184 Appendix 3. Socio-economic characteristics of metropolises in Poland in 2008 185 Appendix 4. Socio-economic characteristics of powiats in Wielkopolska 186 voivodeship in 2008 Appendix 5. Socio-economic characteristics in urban areas in Wielkopolska 187 voivodeship in 2008 Appendix 6. Socio-economic characteristics of gminas in Poznań Metropolitan 188 Area in 2008 Appendix 7. Principal Component Analysis – voivodeships 189 Appendix 8. Principal Component Analysis – metropolises 190 Appendix 9. Principal Component Analysis – powiats in Wielkopolska voivodeship 192 Appendix 10. Principal Component Analysis – urban areas in Wielkopolska 193 voivodeship Appendix 11. Principal Component Analysis – gminas in Poznań 195 Metropolitan Area 21 1. Introduction 1.1. General objective of the study The enlargement of the European Union to 27 Member States has had important consequences for the dynamics of European urban areas. The establishment of the Single Market, by facilitating the flows of goods, capital, services and citizens within a common economic space, had already made a significant impact on the process of urban change, stimulating growth in economically buoyant areas, but also accelerating contraction and decline in others. The prosperous cities are high-productivity service platforms capable of retaining and attracting human capital and firms. However, it is reasonable to assume that rapidly developing cities in Western Europe can have a negative influence on the sustainability – economic, environmental and social – of the new EU member states’ cities and their settlement pattern. The Polish settlement system as a part of the EU system is also exposed to the negative effects of imbalanced development of urban areas. The risk of marginalization of the metropolitan regions of Poland reflects the demographic projections1 for the country, which envisage a considerable decline in the population. Detailed results of the population analyses include a significant decrease in the working-age population, an increase in the population over 65 years old, a low fertility rate, and a continuous outflow of population (Poland is a country with net emigration). The possible negative scenarios for Polish urban areas are confirmed in the Concept of Spatial Development of the Country (2006) from the Ministry of Regional Development and Committee for Spatial Economy and Regional Planning at the Polish Academy of Sciences, National Strategic Reference Framework 2007–2013 (NSRF), as well as other documents created by governmental bodies (e.g. National Development Strategy 2007–2015 (NDS), the Concept of National Spatial Development (CNSD), and National Strategy of Regional Development for 2010–2020: Regions, Cities, Rural areas (NSRD). These studies model the spatial structure of Poland over a long time period. The basic elements of the development of the country’s space are the system of technical infrastructure, the Warsaw metropolitan region, potential poles of development (the largest cities and their metropolitan regions), areas of innovations and actions, and the network of cities which play a significant role at international and national level. The above-mentioned strategic documents predict that there will be a stronger bias (polarization) between the metropolitan regions and their peripheries in the near future. This means the existence of developed agglomerations – the centre (pole) of development – and 1Anna Matysiak, Beata Nowok, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 – 2050, 20.11.2007, Vol. 17, Art. 11, p. 301–338; Konstantinos Giannakouris, Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies, Eurostat, 72/2008 22 areas of poverty at the peripheries (the former socialist collective farming areas in the north- west and eastern parts of the country). These types of scenarios are characteristic for the Central and Eastern European economies that are catching up with the general patterns of the Western European countries after fifty years of centrally planned economy. One should answer the following questions in order to find a solution for the distribution of European Union financial aid (e.g. from European Investment Bank funds): 1. What is the demographic situation of urban areas in Poland? 2. What will influence the population increase/decrease in Poland and its urban areas? Natural birth rate or migration rates? 3. What are the migration trends between urban and rural areas? 4. What are the possible future demographic scenarios for urban areas? 5. What are the regional differences in the socio-economic development of the urban areas? 6. How do the peripheral/surrounding areas support the growth of the main cities/metropolitan areas in Poland? 7. How economically, socially and politically competitive are the regions and their urban centres? 8. What are the scenarios and possible trends of future development for urban areas in Poland? 9. What are the supply of and demand for urban assets and services in relation to demographic and human capital problems and urban infrastructure? 10. What is the socio-economic situation of the urban areas in a particular region – the case of Wielkopolska voivodeship? The answers to these questions and in-depth analysis of the problems can help anticipate the future development of Polish urban areas and assist the management of the urban development funds (e.g. JESSICA) – funds which are EU financial instruments for the renewal and/or regeneration of the urban areas affected by negative demographic and socio- economic trends. The overall emphasis of the study is on characterising demographic and city growth and decline, with a view to assessing their impact on risks and opportunities for long-term investment. The territorial scope of the study is the Polish urban system; however it is also concentrated on a regional level – on the Wielkopolska region. This is a pilot region for the study of urban system dynamics and the implications for risks and opportunities for long-term investors. Wielkopolska is the first region in Poland (and one of the first in the EU) to implement JESSICA and establish Urban Development Funds. The study consists of five chapters. The first one, the introduction, presents the aim of the study and describes content and methodology. The second chapter concerns the demographic situation of Poland and its urban areas. In particular, it includes information about the conditions of the population changes in Poland and its urban areas. It refers to external and 23 internal migration flows. The third chapter includes territorial diagnostics, preceded by the development path of the settlement system in Poland. The diagnostics rely on various socio- economic indicators related to the Polish regions (voivodeships) as well as the urban areas, and in particular the nine delimited metropolitan areas. There are also future prognoses of demographic change as well as attempts to estimate economic trends for some urban areas. The chapter also includes an evaluation of existing urban assets in nine urban areas and of urban demand in the analysed areas. Various multi-variable analyses are performed which make it possible to classify regions, areas and cities. The fourth chapter includes a case study of Wielkopolska – one of the first regions in Poland to introduce the JESSICA financial instrument to improve urban assets. In this chapter indices relating to the socio-economic development of the region’s urban areas are applied.