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2012 NORTHERN TERRITORY ELECTION 25 August 2012

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2012 NORTHERN TERRITORY ELECTION 25 August 2012 CONTENTS Page Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Legislative Assembly Election ............................................................... 3 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division.................................................... 6 By-elections 2008-2012 ........................................................................................... 10 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ............................................................... 11 Regional Summaries ............................................................................................... 14 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MPs .… ‘Ghost’ candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election (n.a.) Not available Party Abbreviations - Non-affiliated candidates ASXP Australian Sex Party CLP Country Liberal Party FNP First Nation's Party GRN Green IND Independent LAB Territory Labor OTH Others Relevant dates Issue of Writ Monday 6 August 2012 Close of Electoral Roll 8pm Wednesday 8 August 2012 Close of Nominations 12 noon Friday 10 August 2012 Polling Day Saturday 25 August 2012 Declaration of Poll and Return of Writ Monday 3 September 2012 Late Date for Return of Writ Friday 28 September 2012 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2016 2012 Northern Territory Election INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the 2012 Northern Territory election. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, details of the total primary and two-candidate preferred vote are provided. Where appropriate, a two-party preferred count is also included. The format for the results is as follows: First Count: For each candidate, the total primary vote received is shown. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 2008 election from the percentage received at the 2012 election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the 2008 election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by “….”) have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. All votes for the 2008 election have been adjusted to take account of the redistribution. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for a candidate by the total formal vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the results of the 2008 election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the 2008 election, a ghost candidate appears and three swing figures are shown. Separate two-party preferred counts are also included in several electorates. All votes for the 2008 election have been adjusted to take account of the redistribution. Two-Candidate Preferred versus Two-Party Preferred Results The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final tally after the exclusion and distribution as preferences of votes from all other candidates. At each stage of the count, the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded, the excluded candidate's votes then distributed to candidates remaining in the count, based on the voter's preferences as indicated on the ballot paper. To achieve victory, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote remaining at the end of the count. The two-party preferred count represents a distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Country Liberal Party. Candidates are again excluded based on lowest progressive vote, though at some point the second lowest candidate is excluded to retain candidates representing the Labor and Country Liberal Parties. In most cases, the two-party preferred count will be the same as the two-candidate preferred count. At the 2008 and 2012 Northern Territory elections, the only seat that required a separate two-party preferred count was nelson, won at both elections by Independent Gerry Wood. Note that this publication uses the final distribution of preferences as the source of two-party preferred counts. These totals have some slight differences from the table of two-party preferred results published as Appendix 'U' of the NT Electoral Commission's General Election Report. Uncontested Electorates The Labor Party won both Arnhem and Macdonnell as uncontested electorates at the 2008 election. This means that most total and summary tables in this publication are comparing the results of 23 contested electorates in 2008 with 25 in 2012. Where appropriate, notes have been included comparing only contested electorates. The uncontested 2008 results mean it has not been possible to calculate change in vote and swing figures for Arnhem and Namatjira at the 2012 election. Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2016 1 2012 Northern Territory Election Details of the redistribution The following tables show the notional party status and margin of all seats following the electoral redistribution. Eleven of the 25 electorates were unchanged, and no electorate changed party status based on the new boundaries. Estimated Changes to Electorate Margins Electorate Old Margin New Margin Arafura LAB 14.0% LAB 14.0% (Unchanged) Araluen CLP 24.7% CLP 247% (Unchanged) Arnhem LAB (n.a.) LAB (n.a.) (Unchanged) Barkly LAB 15.6% LAB 15.6% (Unchanged) Blain CLP 11.6% CLP 10.6% Braitling CLP 20.3% CLP 20.3% (Unchanged) Brennan CLP 2.7% CLP 2.7% Casuarina LAB 14.3% LAB 14.3% Daly LAB 5.8% LAB 5.8% Drysdale CLP 10.1% CLP 9.3% Fannie Bay LAB 1.1% LAB 0.9% Fong Lim CLP 2.1% CLP 4.3% Goyder CLP 8.4% CLP 8.4% (Unchanged) Greatorex CLP 16.5% CLP 16.5% (Unchanged) Johnston LAB 8.1% LAB 6.9% Karama LAB 10.8% LAB 10.8% Katherine CLP 8.4% CLP 8.4% (Unchanged) Namatjira (formerly Macdonnell) ALP (n.a.) ALP (n.a.) (Unchanged) Nelson IND 28.7% IND 28.7% Nhulunbuy LAB 24.2% LAB 24.2% (Unchanged) Nightcliff LAB 10.7% LAB 10.7% (Unchanged) Port Darwin CLP 2.9% CLP 2.9% Sanderson CLP 6.4% CLP 5.2% Stuart LAB 15.0% LAB 15.0% Wanguri LAB 14.9% LAB 14.7% (n.a.) – No margin available as Arnhem and Macdonnell were uncontested at the 2008 election. Acknowledgement and Disclaimer All results have been taken from the 2012 Legislative Assembly General Election Report and Statistics, published by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission. Note that two-party preferred results have been taken from the results of the distribution of preferences rather than the two-party preferred statistics in Table U of the General Election Report. All calculations of percentages and swing are the responsibility of the author. This includes the re- calculation of the 2008 results to take account of the redistribution. Antony Green July 2016 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2016 2012 Northern Territory Election SUMMARY OF LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY RESULTS TERRITORY TOTALS Candi Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Country Liberal 25 16 +5 46,653 50.63 +5.23 Labor Party 25 8 -5 33,594 36.46 -6.72 Independent 10 1 .. 5,566 6.04 -1.08 Greens 10 .. .. 3,039 3.30 -1.00 First Nation's Party 8 .. .. 2,048 2.22 +2.22 Sex Party 5 .. .. 717 0.78 +0.78 Non-affiliated candidates 3 .. .. 526 0.57 +0.57 Formal 86 .. .. 92,143 96.77 +0.86 Informal 3,072 3.23 -0.86 Total Votes / Turnout (see Note) 95,215 76.91 +7.27 Election Enrolment 123,805 Note: There were two uncontested electorates at the 2008 election. The above table compares the 2012 turnout to the 69.64% turnout for the Territory in 2008. Comparing only the 23 electorates contested at both elections, the turnout rose from 75.65% in 2008 to 78.75% in 2012, a rise of +3.10. Country Liberal gains from Labor (5) Arafura Arnhem Daly Namatjira (see notes) Stuart Notes on Changes in Party Status Alison Anderson was elected unopposed as the Labor MP for Macdonnell in 2008. She later resigned from the Labor Party, becoming an Independent before later joining the Country Liberal Party. She was elected for the Country Liberal Party at the 2012 election, while her electorate of Macdonnell was re-named Namatjira in the redistribution. Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2016 3 2012 Northern Territory Election LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District CLP ALP GRN FNP OTH Votes Votes Roll Arafura 1308 1104 426 194 .. 148 3180 5477 Araluen 2487 848 .. 285 .. 137 3757 4817 Arnhem 1366 1102 .. .. .. 76 2544 4902 Barkly 1162 1450 .. 467 131 122 3332 5137 Blain 2462 1343 .. 194 .. 142 4141 4980 Braitling 2372 613 321 .. 204 88 3598 4687 Brennan 2683 1493 .. .. .. 99 4275 5061 Casuarina 1724 2512 .. .. .. 89 4325 5031 Daly 1892 1445 187 109 68 214 3915 5329 Drysdale 2336 1142 .. .. 657 137 4272 5178 Fannie Bay 1639 1945 403 .. .. 109 4096 4879 Fong Lim 2050 1348 250 .. 113 116 3877 4883 Goyder 2731 1291 .. .. 369 142 4533 5323 Greatorex 1991 673 338 .. 512 99 3613 4606 Johnston 1552 1799 389 .. 258 160 4158 4879 Karama 1634 2072 229 .. .. 145 4080 4713 Katherine 2729 864 .. .. 537 77 4207 5174 Namatjira 1847 824 .. 253 .. 143 3067 5127 Nelson 1436 255 .. .. 1988 72 3751 4715 Nhulunbuy 641 1554 .. .. 629 136 2960 4719 Nightcliff 1260 1389 263 .. 982 131 4025 4797 Port Darwin 2023 1205 233 .. 185 96 3742 4730 Sanderson 2214 1872 .. 90 176 132 4484 5100 Stuart 1291 1035 .. 456 .. 176 2958 4706 Wanguri 1823 2416 .. .. .. 86 4325 4855 TOTAL 46653 33594 3039 2048 6809 3072 95215 123805 4 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2016 2012 Northern Territory Election LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District CLP ALP GRN FNP OTH Votes Turnout Arafura 43.1 36.4 14.1 6.4 .
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