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2008 NORTHERN TERRITORY ELECTION 9 August 2008

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2008 NORTHERN TERRITORY ELECTION 9 August 2008 CONTENTS Page Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Legislative Assembly Election ............................................................... 3 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division.................................................... 6 By-elections 2005-2008 ........................................................................................... 10 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ............................................................... 11 Regional Summaries ............................................................................................... 14 Members Elected .................................................................................................... 16 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MPs .… „Ghost‟ candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-affiliated candidates CLP Country Liberal Party GRN Green IND Independent LAB Territory Labor OTH Others Relevant dates Issue of Writ Tuesday 22 July 2008 Close of Electoral Roll 8pm Thursday 24 July 2008 Close of Nominations 12 noon Monday 28 July 2008 Commencement of Mobile and Postal voting Thursday 31 July 2008 Polling Day Saturday 9 August 2008 Close of Receipt for Postal Votes 6pm Friday 15 August 2008 Declaration of Polls 10am Monday 18 August 2008 Return of Writ Monday 18 August 2008 2008 Northern Territory Election INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the 2008 Northern Territory election. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, details of the total primary and two-candidate preferred vote are provided. Where appropriate, a two-party preferred count is also included. The format for the results is as follows: First Count: For each candidate, the total primary vote received is shown. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 2005 election from the percentage received at the 2008 election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the 2005 election, „ghost‟ candidates (indicated by “….”) have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. All votes for the 2005 election have been adjusted to take account of the redistribution. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for a candidate by the total formal vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the results of the 2005 election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the 2005 election, a ghost candidate appears and three swing figures are shown. Separate two-party preferred counts are also included in several electorates. All votes for the 2005 election have been adjusted to take account of the redistribution. Two-Candidate Preferred versus Two-Party Preferred Results The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final tally after the exclusion and distribution as preferences of votes from all other candidates. At each stage of the count, the candidate with the least votes is excluded, and his or her votes are distributed to candidates remaining in the count based on the voter's preferences as indicated on the ballot paper. To achieve victory, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote remaining in the count. The two-party preferred count represents a distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Country Liberal Party. Candidates are again excluded based on lowest progressive vote, though at some point the second lowest candidate is excluded to retain candidates representing Labor and the Country Liberal Party. In most cases, the two-party preferred count will be the same as the two-candidate preferred count. At the 2008 Northern Territory election, separate two-party preferred counts were conducted in electorates that did not finish as two-party contests. These two-party counts have been used where appropriate throughout this publication. For both the 2005 and 2008 elections, two-party preferred counts have been used for Braitling and Nelson. Uncontested Electorates The Labor Party won both Arnhem and Macdonnell uncontested when no other candidate nominated. This means that most total and summary tables in this publication are comparing the results of 23 contested electorates in 2008 with 25 in 2005. Where appropriate, notes have been included comparing only contested electorates. Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2011 1 2008 Northern Territory Election Details of the redistribution The following tables show the notional party status and margin of all seats following the electoral redistribution, based on re-allocating votes from the 2005 election. Note that on the new boundaries, both Drysdale and Goyder switched to become notional CLP seats. State of Parties Labor Country Liberal Independent Total Result of 2005 Election 19 4 2 25 Estimate on new Boundaries 17 6 2 25 Estimated Changes to Electorate Margins Electorate Old Margin New Margin Arafura LAB 23.6% LAB 23.6% (No change) Araluen CLP 7.3% CLP 7.5% Arnhem LAB 23.9% LAB 21.3% Barkly LAB 23.0% LAB 24.2% Blain CLP 7.2% CLP 5.7% Braitling CLP 8.4% CLP 8.0% Brennan LAB 1.8% LAB 0.6% Casuarina LAB 19.0% LAB 18.3% Daly LAB 14.8% LAB 15.8% Drysdale LAB 1.3% CLP 0.5% Fannie Bay LAB 18.6% LAB 9.8% Fong Lim (formerly Millner) LAB 17.8% LAB 11.5% Goyder LAB 1.6% CLP 0.5% Greatorex CLP 1.4% CLP 0.4% Johnston LAB 15.6% LAB 16.8% Karama LAB 17.0% LAB 16.0% Katherine CLP 2.6% CLP 2.7% MacDonnell LAB 11.8% LAB 16.5% Nelson CLP 9.7% CLP 9.8% Nhulunbuy LAB 26.1% LAB 25.5% Nightcliff LAB 15.5% LAB 15.5% Port Darwin LAB 1.1% LAB 1.9% Sanderson LAB 8.4% LAB 10.0% Stuart LAB 21.0% LAB 18.9% Wanguri LAB 20.8% LAB 20.8% Acknowledgement and Disclaimer All results have been taken from the 2008 Legislative Assembly General Election Report and Statistics, published by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission. All calculations of percentages and swing are the responsibility of the author. This includes the re- calculation of the 2005 results to take account of the redistribution. Antony Green July 2011 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2011 2008 Northern Territory Election SUMMARY OF LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY RESULTS STATE-WIDE TOTALS Candi Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Country Liberal 24 11 +5 36,334 45.40 +9.67 Labor Party 25 13 -4 34,557 43.18 -8.76 Independent 11 1 -1 5,696 7.12 -0.32 Greens 6 .. .. 3,442 4.30 +0.13 Others .. .. .. .. .. -0.72 Formal 66 .. .. 80,029 95.92 -0.34 Informal 3,407 4.08 +0.34 Total Votes 83,436 Enrolment / Turnout – Contested Seats (23) 110,289 75.65 -5.70 Enrolment – Uncontested Electorates (2) 9,525 Enrolment / Turnout - Total 119,814 69.64 Notes: Swing calculated compared to 25 contested electorates in 2005. Excluding historic votes for the two uncontested electorates, the swing column would read Country Liberal (+9.05), Labor (-8.08), Independents (-0.61), Greens (+0.41), Others (-0.78). The change in turnout figure is calculated by comparing the 2008 turnout in 23 contested electorates against turnout in the same electorates in 2005. Changes in electoral boundaries mean this comparison can only be approximate. Overall turnout at the 2005 election was 80.07%, 65.92% in Arnhem and Macdonnell and 81.35% in the reaming 23 electorates. Total number of candidates for Labor includes the two members elected unopposed. There were no CLP candidates in Arnhem and Macdonnell but two nominated in Arafura. Country Liberal gains from Labor (4 + 2) Brennan Drysdale (gained in redistribution) Fong Lim Goyder (gained in redistribution) Port Darwin Sanderson Country Liberal gain from Independent (1) Braitling Notes on Changes in Party Status The Country Liberal Party gained Braitling on the retirement of Independent MLA Loraine Braham, and gained Brennan, Fong Lim (previously Millner), Port Darwin and Sanderson from the Labor Party. The Country Liberals also defeated Labor MPs in Drysdale and Goyder, but both of these seats had both become notional CLP seats following the redistribution. Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2011 3 2008 Northern Territory Election LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District LAB CLP GRN Other Votes Votes Turnout Arafura 1300 1030 .. 487 179 2996 4924 Araluen 618 2470 526 .. 90 3704 4963 Barkly 1777 801 .. 338 144 3060 4702 Blain 1410 2258 .. .. 198 3866 4825 Braitling 449 2052 526 496 103 3626 4944 Brennan 1807 2009 .. .. 170 3986 4966 Casuarina 2397 1339 .. .. 199 3935 4680 Daly 1541 1212 292 240 162 3447 4662 Drysdale 1262 2020 .. 374 135 3791 4742 Fannie Bay 1878 1800 .. .. 203 3881 4943 Fong Lim 1685 1831 .. .. 191 3707 4885 Goyder 1556 2183 .. .. 169 3908 4699 Greatorex 735 2205 664 .. 89 3693 4823 Johnston 2246 1618 .. .. 205 4069 4931 Karama 2234 1398 .. 348 167 4147 4935 Katherine 1131 1836 .. 638 126 3731 4921 Nelson 292 646 .. 2436 82 3456 4635 Nhulunbuy 1936 674 .. .. 103 2713 4532 Nightcliff 1625 1257 896 .. 119 3897 4945 Port Darwin 1231 1557 538 .. 105 3431 4741 Sanderson 1723 2231 .. .. 247 4201 4852 Stuart 1470 789 .. .. 106 2365 4481 Wanguri 2254 1118 .. 339 115 3826 4558 Contested Electorates 34557 36334 3442 5696 3407 83436 110289 Uncontested Electorates Arnhem .. .. .. .. .. .. 4660 Macdonnell .. .. .. .. .. .. 4865 Territory Enrolment 119814 4 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2011 2008 Northern Territory Election LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral Percentage of First PreferenceVotes Informal District LAB CLP GRN Other Votes Turnout Arafura 46.1 36.6 .. 17.3 6.0 60.8 Araluen 17.1 68.3 14.6 .. 2.4 74.6 Barkly 60.9 27.5 .
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