Northern Territory Election 19 August 2020
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Barton Deakin Brief: Northern Territory Election 19 August 2020 Overview The Northern Territory election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 22 August 2020. This election will see the incumbent Labor Party Government led by Michael Gunner seeking to win a second term against the Country Liberal Party Opposition, which lost at the 2016 election. Nearly 40 per cent of Territorians have already cast their vote in pre-polling ahead of the ballot. The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green said that a swing of 3 per cent would deprive the Government of its majority. However, it is not possible to calculate how large the swing against the Government would need to be to prevent a minority government. This Barton Deakin brief provides a snapshot of what to watch in this Territory election on Saturday. Current composition of the Legislative Assembly The Territory has a single Chamber, the Legislative Assembly, which is composed of 25 members. Currently, the Labor Government holds 16 seats (64 per cent), the Country Liberal Party Opposition holds two seats (8 per cent), the Territory Alliance holds three seats (12 per cent), and there are four independents (16 per cent). In late 2018, three members of the Parliamentary Labor Party were dismissed for publicly criticising the Government’s economic management after a report finding that the budget was in “structural deficit”. Former Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Vowles, Jeff Collins, and Scott McConnell were dismissed. Mr Vowles later resigned from Parliament and was replaced at a by-election in February 2020 by former Richmond footballer Joel Bowden (Australian Labor Party). Mr Collins joined the Territory Alliance in March 2020. Mr McConnell has announced that he will recontest the neighbouring seat of Braitling instead of his current seat of Stuart (now Gwoja). The Northern Territory Electoral Commission carried out the obligatory redistribution during this term of government, which has seen the notional margins change in a number of electorates. Each member is elected by around 5,500 electors. Members often know many of their electors and can inspire a strong personal vote, making seats with a member who is not recontesting more marginal. Key Seats Electorate Party Current Member Notional Margin Mulka (was Independent Yingiya Mark Guyula 0.1% (Ind) Nhulunbuy) Blain Territory Alliance Terry Mills 1.4% (TA) Katherine Labor Party Sandra Nelson (retiring) 1.6% (LAB) Daly Country Liberal Gary Higgins (retiring) 1.7% (CLP) Namatjira Labor Party Chansey Paech (contesting in 2.0% (CLP) Gwoja) Brennan Labor Party Tony Sievers 2.6% (LAB) Port Darwin Labor Party Paul Kirby 2.8% (LAB) Braitling Labor Party Dale Wakefield 3.0% (LAB) Drysdale Labor Party Eva Lawler 5.2% (LAB) Fong Lim Territory Alliance Jeff Collins 5.65% (LAB)* Araluen Territory Alliance Robyn Lambley 8.6% (TA) Karama Labor Party Ngaree Ah Kity 12.3% (LAB) Johnston Labor Party Joel Bowden 15.7% (LAB) Barkly Labor Party Gerry McCarthy (retiring) 15.9% (LAB) Nelson Independent Gerry Wood (retiring) 23.0% (Ind) Goyder Independent Kezia Purick 25.3% (Ind) Gwoja (was Stuart) Independent Scott McConnell (contesting in 25.4% (LAB)* Braitling) * Notional margin not relevant due to change in party or contester The Leaders Australian Labor Party – Michael Gunner Michael Gunner has been Northern Territory Chief Minister since the 2016 election, when he beat CLP incumbent Adam Giles. He had been elected Leader of the Opposition in April 2015 unopposed. Mr Gunner was first elected to the seat of Fannie Bay in 2008. Before his election, he worked as an adviser to former Chief Minister Clare Martin, who previously held the seat of Fannie Bay. Mr Gunner holds and arts degree and played for the Northern Territory in rugby. Country Liberal Party – Lia Finocchiaro Lia Finocchiaro took over the leadership from Gary Higgins in February 2020, coinciding with a sharp blow to the party after the Johnston by-election. She is in her second term as an MLA. Ms Finocchiaro graduated from the University of Adelaide with a double degree in law and international relations. She worked in legal practice from 2008 before being elected to the Legislative Assembly for Drysdale in 2012. She has served as Shadow Minister for Police, Fire and Emergency Services, Health, Children, Territory Families, Education, Trade, and Essential Services. Territory Alliance – Terry Mills In 2019, former Country Liberal Party Chief Minister Terry Mills formed the Territory Alliance and has been its leader since. Mr Mills began his political career in 1999 when he was elected as the Country Liberal Party candidate for Blain. He led the opposition from 2003 to 2005. His leadership in the 2012 election saw the CLP form a majority government. Mr Mills was replaced by Adam Giles after a leadership spill in March 2013. After leaving politics in 2014, he recontested his former seat and was elected as an independent in the 2016 election. Before politics, Mr Mills was a teacher in Perth and a principal at a Christian school. Key Election Themes Coronavirus Pandemic The coronavirus related measures have been at the centre of much of the rhetoric in the lead up to this election. The CLP Leader has argued that she would seek to open the borders immediately if she were in government, while Chief Minister Michael Gunner has defended his position to keep the borders shut. The Government has been accused of not doing enough to support those struggling from the pandemic. The Labor Government has spent around $424 million as part of its coronavirus response. Entertainment and tourism The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent closure of the NT border for the foreseeable future has caused significant damage to the entertainment and tourism industry that was struggling before the pandemic. The Territory’s Small Business Survival Fund is no longer taking applications and other Territory and Commonwealth specific supports may not go all the way to supporting to the industry. Energy and resources In June 2020, the Territory Alliance came out against fracking in the Territory, citing concerns about water contamination, greenhouse gas emissions, and dwindling support for gas from investors. This was a politically sensitive topic at the Johnston by-election in early 2020. The shift may disrupt traditional preference flows from the Greens to the Labor Party. The Labor Government had ordered a moratorium on fracking to allow a scientific inquiry to take place, but this moratorium was later revoked in April 2018. The Country Liberal Party stood by the controversial policy to protect development and jobs in the Territory. Indications that the CLP may preference Labor over the Territory Alliance no longer hold true, Labor is the last preference in every seat. Power prices have featured in Labor campaign advertising, citing the power price hikes overseen by former Chief Minister and Territory Alliance leader Terry Mills. Employment and Jobs Much like Western Australia, the Territory benefited from the mining construction boom, but the number of well-paid constructions workers has since gone down. The result has been a weakened economy, softer house prices and rents, and a reduction in Government revenue. The CLP was attacked for previous public service job cuts. Lia Finocchiaro said she would defend public service jobs, but made no commitment to capping public service wage increases to $1,000 per year, as was suggested in the budget repair strategy. School in the Northern Territory. In March 2020, the Territory Alliance became the largest non-government party and Mr Mills claimed to be the Leader of the Opposition. However, Opposition status must be formalised by the Legislative Assembly. For more information, contact David Alexander on +61 457 400 524, Grahame Morris on +61 411 222 680, Tahlia Robertson on +61 438 259 671, Cheryl Cartwright on +61 419 996 066, or John Fitzgerald on +61 488 111 568. .