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After 49 Years, a Changing of the Guard

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After 49 Years, a Changing of the Guard Vol. 16, No. 3 March 2008 www.cubanews.com In the News After 49 years, a changing of the guard: Washington won’t budge Raúl replaces Fidel as Cuba’s president Embargo likely to remain intact, despite BY LARRY LUXNER In the ramshackle streets of Havana, where the announcement of the new president was rhetoric in Congress ......................Page 2 t was the headline millions of people — including many subscribers of CubaNews — met with little surprise, people bought fruit and Inever really expected to read: “Fidel quits.” vegetables at corner markets while others Cuba’s new leadership But with Fidel Castro’s younger brother Raúl played dominoes on the sidewalk. Many are hoping the new president will bring An organizational chart explains Cuba’s 31- now officially leading Cuba, not much may change at all in the short term, especially given some relief. member Council of State ...............Page 3 the National Assembly’s unanimous decision “Raúl won’t be able to get the economy back Feb. 24 to elevate José Ramón Machado Ventura on an even keel without dedicating a lot of time Food sales hit record to Raúl’s old job, that of first vice president. to economic improvements for Cubans,” Rolan- Indeed, as the National Assembly met in do Bellman, 59, a security guard, told Reuters. U.S. food shipments to Cuba hit $437.6m in Havana to pick Cuba’s first new president in half Added Armando Gómez, a 76-year-old retiree: 2007, but volume remains flat .......Page 4 a century, many habaneros treated it as just “Raúl will be the guarantee of the revolution’s another Sunday, shopping for groceries or continuity but he must have the backing of a washing the family car. young and capable force in order to satisfy the 11,237,154 and falling As Reuters reported, some huddled around needs of the country.” Cuba’s population drops for second year in radios and TVs as Raúl was confirmed as suc- Most foreign observers, including Cuba ex- pert Phil Peters, were surprised to learn that the a row, confounding experts ...........Page 7 cessor to his ailing 81-year-old brother Fidel, who had ruled Cuba since Jan. 1, 1959. 77-year-old Machado was elevated to the crucial Others went on with the daily business of cop- post of first vice president rather than economic A fictional speech ing with the hardships that plague daily life in czar Carlos Lage, who is 56. What the new president should say in 2009 Cuba after nearly 50 years of communist rule. See Raul, page 2 regarding U.S. Cuba policy ............Page 8 White House Cuba Democracy Program Port of Matanzas Despite present state of neglect, Matanzas shifts away from S. Florida exile groups is well-poised for growth .............Page 10 BY ANA RADELAT Groups likely to get a big chunk of the $45.3 Business briefs s Raúl Castro consolidates his power in million in appropriations for Cuba programs this Havana, Washington is quietly taking year include the National Endowment for Demo- Change in Cuba sends Herzfeld Fund sky- Asome steps of its own. For the first time, cracy (NED) and the International Republican ward; service exports double ......Page 12 President Bush’s policy of funding dissent in Cu- Institute (IRI), which has Republican presiden- ba will focus on well-established groups linked to tial candidate Sen. John McCain on its board. the State Department — instead of the Miami- For decades, the State Department has Environmental protection based exile organizations that have long been at bankrolled efforts to undermine hostile govern- Analyst argues that Cuba is making strides the forefront of those controversial efforts. ments. But it wasn’t until passage of the 1996 Helms-Burton Act that a Cuba grant program in preserving its coastline ............Page 13 Back in December, exile groups hailed Con- gressional approval of a dramatic boost in funds was established by the Clinton administration. for groups trying to help dissidents, journalists, To date, at least $70 million has been distrib- Vatican calling independent libraries and other NGOs, all in an uted through so-called “Section 109” grants, named after the section in Helms-Burton that Holy See sends Bertone to Cuba 10 years effort to erode the power of the Castro regime. But much of that money will now end up go- established the program. Most of the money after Pope’s historic visit ..............Page 14 ing to large Washington-based organizations went to exile groups in South Florida. with experience in helping topple hostile govern- But these efforts proved ineffective. Havana CubaNews (ISSN 1073-7715) is published monthly ments, rather than South Florida exile groups. countered by approving harsh penalties against by Luxner News Inc. © 2008. All rights reserved. “We’re going to give the money to organiza- dissidents who received aid through the pro- Subscriptions: $429 for one year, $800 for two years. tions that can best address the needs on the gram, resulting in dozens of arrests. In addition, For editorial inquiries, please call (301) 452-1105 the grants have been characterized as payoffs or send an e-mail to: [email protected]. ground,” State Department spokeswoman Heide Bronke told CubaNews. See USAID, page 6 2 CubaNews ❖ March 2008 — FROM PAGE 1 purchasing-power problem.” Jones, whose organization represents 50 to 55 Raúl Brian Latell is a former CIA analyst and ex- U.S. corporations, trade groups and business “Obviously, they didn’t make a move to the pert on Raúl Castro, told CubaNews that “no associations. “One concerns the currency next generation,” said Peters, vice-president one should doubt who’s in charge” in Havana. system, and the other is about getting rid of of the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va. “This is Raúl’s personal team, these are all stupid regulations that prevent people from “The most important thing now is what men who have worked with him for decades doing many things.” they do. The Cuban government has spent 18 in some cases, and people who reflect his Asked what might happen in the short months raising expectations that they’re thinking, attitudes and personal style. But I term, Jones — who’s been to Cuba literally going to change economic policy. Will they was surprised that he didn’t do anything to re- hundreds of times — says he expects that deliver or disappoint?” juvenate the leadership. Many of us thought “very soon, within weeks, we’ll see a loosen- One of the biggest financial complaints is Lage would be elevated somehow, to presi- ing up” in a lot of different areas. Cuba’s dual-currency system. While wages — dent, prime minister or even first vice presi- “I’ve had a few extra calls from people won- which average $15 a month — are paid in dent. But that didn’t happen.” dering what all this means, but nothing is go- local pesos, basic consumer goods must be According to Latell, little is known about ing to happen until we have a new administra- bought with the official hard currency called Machado Ventura — nicknamed “Machadito” tion,” he told CubaNews. “I don’t think there’ll convertible pesos or CUCs. There are 24 — outside of Cuba, and even there he’s be an uptick in business interest in Cuba until national pesos to a CUC. remained inconspicuous. after the election. If the Democrats win, there Raúl said in his first speech as president “It is probably by his own choice that he will be more interest for obvious reasons, par- that he was studying a “prudent revaluation of rarely speaks in public, attracts little attention ticularly if [Barack] Obama gets elected.” the Cuban peso.” in the government media, and has never been Jones praised the Illinois senator’s pledge identified with particular policy lines or revo- to meet face-to-face with Raúl Castro if elected THE MYSTERIOUS ‘MACHADITO’ lutionary campaigns,” the academic wrote in president, noting that “not in 34 years have I The dual-currency system is only one of a his latest monthly Latell Report, which is pub- ever heard a presidential candidate say they’d long string of financial gripes in Cuba. Even lished by the University of Miami’s Institute sit down, without preconditions, to talk to so, people expect that Raúl Castro will usher for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. Cuban officials.” in some tentative economic reforms. “If he has traveled abroad since the end of Tony Martínez, an attorney for the New “It seems pretty clear that they’re going to the Soviet empire, he has attracted no atten- York-based Ortiz Group, which advises U.S. move on economic policy, but how deep and tion doing so. And there is no reason to sus- food and medical companies that export to how fast, we can’t tell yet,” said Peters. “Raúl pect that he counts among the small circle of Cuba, said the very fact that Raúl Castro is wanted to have people who he’s known and Cuba’s experts who analyze the United States now the island’s head of state should be a trusted for a long time right by his side. The and the bilateral relationship.” “wake-up call” that the Bush administration’s one thing he said he’d do — in coming weeks policy of isolating the island has failed. — is start removing some prohibitions, but IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. BUSINESS UNCLEAR “Let’s keep in mind that the embargo, trav- it’s not clear if he’s talking about allowing Kirby Jones, president of the Washington- el restrictions and limiting family members Cubans to travel freely, own a cellphone or based U.S.-Cuba Trade Association, says not from having normal relations with their rela- engage in limited enterprise.
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