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Pledge Fulfillment in Germany

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Pledge Fulfillment in Germany PLEDGE FULFILLMENT IN GERMANY: AN EXAMINATION OF THE SCHRÖDER II AND MERKEL I GOVERNMENTS by MARK JOSEPH FERGUSON TERRY J. ROYED, COMMITTEE CHAIR BARBARA A. CHOTINER STEPHEN BORRELLI HARVY F. KLINE DANIEL RICHES A DISSERTATION Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of The University of Alabama TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA 2012 Copyright Mark J. Ferguson 2012 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ABSTRACT Past scholarly research has indicated that campaign pledges are important. This research has led scholars to examine the various institutional differences between states. For instance, single-party majoritarian system, the British Westminster (UK), the American federal system for pledge fulfillment, coalition and minority systems, e.g., Ireland, Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden have been examined and compared. Combined, these scholars have presented academia compelling evidence that the rates of pledge fulfillment are a function of the individual institutional designs of the states examined. This dissertation expands on existing research by including the German system to the expanding understanding of pledge fulfillment and institutional design. This work examines the Schröder II (2002-2005) and Merkel (2005-2009) governments. I argue that there are several substantial questions that need to be addressed in relationship to Germany and pledge fulfillment. First, to what extent does the mandate model apply to Germany? Second, to what extent do parties in a grand coalition fulfill pledges, compared to normal coalition governments? Lastly, to what extent does the German case compare to previous research? I argue that pledge fulfillment under German coalition governments should be consistent with existing research; pledge fulfillment under grand coalition governments should be lower than previous research. By adding Germany to the already extensive work on pledge fulfillment, we are better able to make stronger inferences on the impact of institutional design on pledge fulfillment. ii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to everyone who helped me and guided me through the trials and tribulations of creating this manuscript. In particular, my family, friends and professors who stood by me throughout the time taken to complete this work. Your support is greatly appreciated. iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 1. CDU/CSU………………………………………… Christian Democrat Party of Germany 2. FDP………………………………………………...Free Democratic Party of Germany 3. Govt..………………………………………………Government 4. Linke.PDS………………………………………….The Left Party 5. Merkel I…………………………………………….Grand Coalition Government, 2005- 2009 6. PDS..……………………………………………….Party of Democratic Socialism of Germany 7. Schröder I…………………………………………..SPD-led government, 1998-2002 8. Schröder II………………………………………….SPD-led government, 2002-2005 9. SPD..………………………………………………..Social Democratic Party of Germany iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am pleased to have this opportunity to thank the many colleagues, friends, and faculty members who have helped me with this research project. I am most indebted to Terry Royed, the chair of this dissertation, for sharing her research expertise and wisdom regarding pledge fulfillment. Without her guidance this work would not be possible. I would also like to thank all of my committee members, Stephen Borelli, Barbara A. Chotiner, Harvey Kline, and Daniel Riches for their invaluable input, inspiring questions, and support for both this dissertational work and for my overall academic progress. Each member of the committee took a keen interest in me personally and professionally, encouraging and pushing me to excel in the doctoral program during my time at the University of Alabama . I will be forever grateful for their encouragement and guidance. I would also like to thank my wife, Heidi, and family for their assistance and patience. With Heidi’s assistance, I was capable of focusing on the completion of this work. Heidi was also instrumental in proofreading and correcting any translation errors from English to German of the coding rules used in this work. Additionally, my in-laws and parents were also very supportive of me in too numerous ways to note here everything. Liebe/r Oma, Opa, Ingrid und Johannes, Ich will mich persönlich bei Euch bedanken. Ihr habt uns sehr geholfen und wir bedanken uns herzlich für alles. v Lastly, I would like to thank my parents and siblings for their assistance and encouragement. My parents spent untold number or hours reading this manuscript to bring about a better work, often on short notice. They were willing to spend their valuable time on this project when I was mentally and physically exhausted. Your assistance and encouragement are greatly appreciated. vi CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................ ii DEDICATION ........................................................................................... iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...........................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................... xiii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ................................................................... xvi CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION ...........................................................1 1. Pledge Fulfillment Research ....................................................................3 2. Adding the German Case to the Literature ..............................................4 3. Research Design.......................................................................................6 4. Expectations…………………….………………………………. ...........8 5. Case Studies: Economic and Social Welfare Policies in Germany ......10 6. Organization of Dissertation ..................................................................14 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................15 1. Do Elections Matter? .............................................................................15 2. Do Parties Matter for Policy? Methodological Approaches and Findings ...........................................................................................18 3. Comparative Manifesto Project .............................................................20 4. The Pledge Fulfillment Approach……………………………. .............21 vii a. Early Studies ....................................................................................22 b. Comparative Party Pledge Group…..…… .................…………….23 i. The Comparison of US Presidential System to Single-Party Majority Parliamentary Governments........................................24 ii. Semi-Presidentialism: France ...................................................26 iii. Majority Coalitions: The Netherlands, Ireland, and Italy ........27 iv. Minority Governments: Sweden, Spain, and Ireland ...............29 v. Ministerial Control and Pledge Fulfillment ...............................30 5. Closing the Gap in the Literature: Adding the German Case ...............32 a. German Federalism and the Bundesrat ............................................33 b. Grand Coalitions in Germany ..........................................................41 c. Negative Perceptions of Grand Coalition Governance ....................46 d. Positive Perceptions of Grand Coalition Governance .....................51 e. Grand Coalition Governance Perceptions: Lacking Systematic Evidence ...........................................................................................53 6. Summary ................................................................................................55 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF GERMAN MANIFESTOS ..................................................................56 1. Research Design.....................................................................................56 a. Case Selection ..................................................................................56 b. Defining and Testing Pledges ..........................................................57 i. The Process of Pledge Identification ..........................................57 ii. Intercoder Reliability .................................................................59 c. Testing Pledge Fulfillment ...............................................................60 d. Questions and Hypotheses ...............................................................61 viii i. Question 1: Will the Mandate Model Apply? ............................61 ii. Question 2: How Will Grand Coalitions Compare to Coalition Governments? ............................................................62 iii. Question 3: How Does the German Case Compare to the Literature? ............................................................................64 2. Analysis of German Party Manifestos ...................................................65 a. Breakdown of Pledges by Policy Areas ...........................................65 b. Breakdown of Pledges by Type of Change ......................................68 c. Examples of Pledge Coding .............................................................70 d. Relationship Among Pledges ...........................................................74 3. Organization of Dissertation ..................................................................76 CHAPTER
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