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Bruno Hendler.Pdf UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA POLÍTICA INTERNACIONAL BRUNO HENDLER O SISTEMA SINOCÊNTRICO REVISITADO A SOBREPOSIÇÃO DE TEMPORALIDADES DA ASCENSÃO DA CHINA NO SÉCULO XXI E SUA PROJEÇÃO SOBRE O SUDESTE ASIÁTICO RIO DE JANEIRO DEZEMBRO DE 2018 BRUNO HENDLER O SISTEMA SINOCÊNTRICO REVISITADO A SOBREPOSIÇÃO DE TEMPORALIDADES DA ASCENSÃO DA CHINA NO SÉCULO XXI E SUA PROJEÇÃO SOBRE O SUDESTE ASIÁTICO Tese apresentada ao corpo docente do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do título de Doutor em Economia Política Internacional na área de Ciência Política/Relações Internacionais Orientadora: Isabela Nogueira de Morais RIO DE JANEIRO DEZEMBRO DE 2018 FICHA CATALOGRÁFICA H495 Hendler, Bruno O sistema sinocêntrico revisitado: a sobreposição de temporalidades da ascensão da China no século XXI e sua projeção sobre o sudeste asiático / Bruno Hendler. – 2018. 276 p. ; 31 cm. Orientador: Isabela Nogueira de Morais Tese (doutorado) – Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia Política Internacional, 2018. Bibliografia: f. 260-276. 1. Sistema sinocêntrico. 2. China – Século XXI. 3. Sudeste asiático. I. Morais, Isabela Nogueira de, orient. II. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Economia. III. Título. CDD 330.9 Ficha catalográfica elaborada pelo bibliotecário: Lucas Augusto Alves Figueiredo CRB 7 – 6851 Biblioteca Eugênio Gudin/CCJE/UF RJ CDD 323 Você não sente nem vê Mas eu não posso deixar de dizer, meu amigo Que uma nova mudança em breve vai acontecer E o que há algum tempo era jovem e novo, hoje é antigo E precisamos todos rejuvenescer Belchior Resumo A hipótese central deste trabalho é que a projeção multifacetada da China sobre o Sudeste (SE) Asiático a partir de 1997 pode ser compreendida como a construção de uma dinâmica de centro-periferia que carrega traços de um sistema internacional não- westfaliano pré-moderno, ao qual muitos autores denominam de “sistema sinocêntrico” e que teria existido entre os séculos X e XV. A tese está dividida em dois grandes blocos: os primeiros três capítulos (primeiro bloco) abordam a hipótese de existência do sistema sinocêntrico pré-moderno e sua relação com o SE Asiático a partir do método da análise dos sistemas-mundo. Os outros três capítulos (segundo bloco) abordam a projeção contemporânea da China sobre o SE Asiático sob o viés da longa duração, buscando analogias entre o passado e o presente. A partir de extensa revisão bibliográfica, identificamos que o denominador comum de ambos os fenômenos é a existência de três grandes eixos de projeção chinesa: o político-militar (ou estratégico); o de economia política; e o simbólico-institucional. Os principais atributos desses vetores são: a permanência de uma forte assimetria em favor da China, o alinhamento de forças econômicas chinesas às diretrizes políticas estabelecidas pelo poder imperial ou pelo Estado-Partido e a aceitação, mais ou menos consensual, da ordem sinocêntrica pelas elites políticas dos reinos/países subalternos. Ao final, o estudo debruça-se sobre dois processos contemporâneos que podem confirmar ou refutar a hipótese de que as relações China-SE Asiático ressoam elementos de uma dinâmica sinocêntrica. São eles: a Nova Rota da Seda e as relações China-Filipinas. Abstract The main hypothesis of this doctoral dissertation is that the China's multifaceted projection over Southeast (SE) Asia since 1997 can be characterized as the construction of a core-periphery dynamic that bears traces of a pre-modern non-Westphalian international system which is commonly referred as a "sinocentric system" and that would have had existed between the 10th and 15th Centuries. This thesis is divided in two major sections: the three initial chapters (first section) address the hypothesis of the existence of the aforementioned pre-modern sinocentric system and its extension over SE Asia based on the world-system analysis. The other three chapters (second section) address China's contemporary projection on SE Asia through the longue-durée perspective, proposing specific analogies between the pre-modern sinocentric system and the Chinese contemporary projection over SE Asia. Based on an extensive literature review, a common ground for both phenomena has been identified in the occurrence of three major vectors of the Chinese projection: the political-military (or strategic); the political economy; and the symbolic-institutional. The main attributes of these vectors are: the permanence of a strong asymmetry in China´s favor, the alignment of Chinese economic forces with the political guidelines established by the imperial polity or by the party-state power, and the somewhat consensual acceptance of the synocentric order by the political elites from the vassal kingdoms/countries. In the end, the study focuses on two contemporary processes that can confirm or refute the hypothesis that China-SE Asia relations resonate elements of a synocentric dynamic. These are: the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Philippines relations. Palavras-chave: Sistema sinocêntrico; China; Sudeste Asiático; sistema-mundo moderno; Belt and Road Initiative. Agradecimentos Ao final desta jornada chego à conclusão de que o esforço de construção do conhecimento é tão árduo e prazeroso quanto o processo de autoconhecimento pelo qual passa um doutorando. Arrisco-me a dizer que toda pesquisa na grande área das ciências humanas e sociais é, de partida, moldada pela forma como o cientista vê o mundo, pela motivação que o leva a estudar seu objeto e pelas pessoas que o acompanham em sua caminhada. Mas o cientista que termina a pesquisa seguramente não é o mesmo de quando a iniciou e, olhando para trás, vejo o quanto fui moldado pelo trabalho que eu pretendia moldar. O ciclo de quatro anos que se encerra é resultado de uma infinidade de outros ciclos compostos por algumas relações que nasceram e outras que se fortaleceram. Todas foram essenciais para amenizar a sensação de solidão que acompanha a maioria dos doutorandos e para me fazer chegar até aqui. O primeiro agradecimento vai à minha família. Aos meus pais, Marcia e Noemio, que continuam sendo as grandes referências da minha vida. Sou um privilegiado pela criação que me deram e pelo amor incondicional que continuam me dando. Seja em Curitiba ou na China, não passei um dia sem contar com o apoio deles. À Dani, que além de irmã tornou-se uma grande companheira que compartilha não só do sofrimento pelo Atlético, mas das minhas inquietações com relação aos rumos tenebrosos do Brasil e do mundo. À minha avó Ada, pelo seu amor incondicional e que, junto com meus outros avôs e minha outra avó – que não estão mais fisicamente presentes, foi fundamental para a construção da minha identidade. Ao Virgílio, à Marcia, aos meus tios (Roberto, Luíz, Isaac e Yehuda), tias (Sarita e Frida) e primos, que torcem muito por mim e são parte do meu porto seguro em Curitiba ou em qualquer lugar onde estejam. Também sou grato às pessoas com quem convivi nos dois anos de Rio de Janeiro, em 2015 e 2016. No âmbito acadêmico, tive o privilégio de ser orientado pela professora Isabela Nogueira de Morais, que me abriu vários horizontes de pesquisa e foi uma ótima guia para entender essa grande incógnita chamada China. Desde referências bibliográficas e contatos acadêmicos até os ajustes no método e no conteúdo do trabalho, seu papel foi fundamental, ainda que a minha teimosia tenha prevalecido em alguns pontos. As falhas que porventura aparecerem neste trabalho são de minha total responsabilidade e, provavelmente, fruto dessa teimosia. Sou grato a outros tantos professores que muito contribuíram para o meu trabalho. Ao professor Carlos Eduardo Martins, cujas inquietações diante das injustiças políticas e socioeconômicas no Brasil e na América Latina inspiram uma infinidade de estudantes. Sua disciplina sobre as longas durações do sistema-mundo moderno e seus conselhos de pesquisa foram, de fato, muito importantes. Ao professor Daniel Barreiros, cuja visão de metodologia científica e de processos históricos abordados na disciplina de História II provocou debates de altíssimo nível em sala de aula, estimulou o confronto de ideias e desfez uma série de ideias pré-concebidas graças ao estímulo ao pensamento crítico. A ele sou igualmente grato pelas conversas e conselhos sobre os rumos da minha pesquisa. Ao professor Antônio José Escobar Brussi, que me orientou no mestrado na UnB e tem acompanhado meus avanços desde então. Seu conhecimento sobre a perspectiva dos sistemas-mundo foi e tem sido fundamental para minha formação intelectual. Ao professor Marcos Cordeiro Pires, por aceitar o convite para compor a banca de avaliação e por suas publicações, que foram importantes ganhos para este trabalho. Aos demais professores do PEPI com quem convivi e aprendi: Clarice Vieira, Eduardo Crespo, Numa Mazat, Maurício Metri, Raphael Padula, José Luis Fiori e Eduardo Costa Pinto. À Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Ensino Superior (CAPES), por ter viabilizado esta pesquisa com a bolsa de doutorado. Para além do PEPI, devo agradecer ao apoio e estímulo de amigos e colegas de profissão. Aos professores Pedro Vieira, Helton Ouriques, Rosangela Vieira, Hermes Moreira Jr, Jales da Costa, Fabio Pádua dos Santos e outros tantos companheiros do Grupo de Pesquisa em Economia Política dos Sistemas-Mundo. Dentre eles, agradeço ao professor Christopher Chase- Dunn, da UC-Riverside, pela gentileza de ter lido meus trabalhos e ter feito sugestões elucidativas à respeito da perspectiva dos sistemas-mundo. Aos amigos e colegas do tempo de docência no Unicuritiba que, apesar da distância, acompanharam meu percurso e mantiveram as portas abertas da instituição com convites para palestras, aulas e o lançamento do livro da minha iniciação científica: Andrew Traumann, Carlos-Magno Vasconcellos, Eduardo Teixeira, Gustavo Glodes-Blum, Isaak Newton, Patrícia Tendolini Oliveira, Perci Klein, Thiago Assunção e tantos outros.
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