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Loss of Life Estimation in Flood Risk Assessment

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Loss of Life Estimation in Flood Risk Assessment Loss of life estimation in fl ood risk assessment Th eory and applications Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnifi cus prof. dr. ir. J.T. Fokkema, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op maandag 18 juni 2007 om 15.00 uur door Sebastiaan Nicolaas JONKMAN civiel ingenieur geboren te ’s-Gravenhage Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotoren: Prof. drs. ir. J.K. Vrijling Prof. ir. A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder Samenstelling promotiecommissie: Rector Magnifi cus, Voorzitter Prof. drs. ir. J.K. Vrijling Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. ir. A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Dr. ir. M. Kok Technische Universiteit Delft en HKV Lijn in Water Prof. dr. B.J.M. Ale Technische Universiteit Delft Prof. M.L. Levitan Louisiana State University, Hurricane Center Prof. M.H. Faber Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich Prof. E. Penning-Rowsell Middlesex University, Flood Hazard Research Centre Prof. dr. ir. M.J.F. Stive Technische Universiteit Delft, reservelid Dr. ir. P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder heeft als begeleider in belangrijke mate aan de totstand- koming van het proefschrift bijgedragen. Dit onderzoek is mogelijk gemaakt door Rijkswaterstaat, Dienst Weg- en Waterbouwkunde te Delft. Het onderzoek is uitgevoerd in het kader van het onderzoeksprogramma Delft Cluster. Ontwerp en vormgeving omslag: Henk de Roij. Illustratie op de omslag: Een fotoboek op straat nabij de bres in de dijken langs het 17th Street Canal, New Orleans, februari 2006. Opmaak en druk: Sieca Repro, Delft ISBN 978-90-9021950-9 Copyright © S.N. Jonkman, 2007 Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden verveelvoudigd, opgeslagen in een geautomatiseerd gegevensbestand of openbaar gemaakt worden in enige vorm of op enige wijze, hetzij elektronisch, mechanisch of door fotokopieën, opname, of op enige andere manier, zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van de auteur. Table of contents Summary 1 Samenvatting 5 1 Introduction 9 1.1 Historical development of risk management .......................................................................9 1.2 Risk: defi nition, perception and uncertainty ....................................................................13 1.3 Risk assessment and management .....................................................................................20 1.4 Overview of this thesis ......................................................................................................27 Part one: A general approach for loss of life estimation and risk quantifi cation 2 A general approach for loss of life estimation 35 2.1 A general approach for loss of life estimation.....................................................................35 2.2 Evacuation, escape, shelter and rescue ...............................................................................41 2.3 Estimation of mortality .....................................................................................................55 2.4 Combination of evacuation and mortality analysis ............................................................64 2.5 Relationship between the number of fatalities and other consequence types ......................65 2.6 Economic valuation of loss of life ......................................................................................69 2.7 Concluding remarks ..........................................................................................................72 3 A general approach for the quantifi cation of individual and societal risk 75 3.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................75 3.2 Defi nitions of individual and societal risk .........................................................................76 3.3 General formulations for the quantifi cation of individual and societal risk ........................77 3.4 Th e relationship between individual and societal risk ........................................................85 3.5 Extension of the general formulations for risk quantifi cation ............................................92 3.6 Examples ..........................................................................................................................97 3.7 Concluding remarks ........................................................................................................111 4 Uncertainties in loss of life estimates 113 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................113 4.2 Deterministic application of the dose response function ..................................................115 4.3 Application of the dose response function to individuals .................................................117 4.4 Practical interpretation of dependencies between failures ................................................128 4.5 Model uncertainties in dose response functions ...............................................................132 4.6 Uncertainty in loss of life estimates and compliance to risk criteria .................................137 4.7 Concluding remarks ........................................................................................................139 Part two: Loss of life estimation and fl ood risk assessment 5 Loss of human life in fl oods: Overview and analysis of the available information 143 5.1 General introduction: fl oods and fl ood damage ...............................................................143 5.2 Global perspectives of loss of life caused by fl oods ...........................................................146 5.3 Loss of life in historical fl oods in the Netherlands ...........................................................153 5.4 Historical fl ood events and the determinants of loss of life ..............................................155 5.5 Causes and circumstances of individual fl ood disaster deaths ..........................................163 5.6 Evaluation of the available information ..........................................................................166 6 A review of models for the estimation of loss of human life caused by fl oods 169 6.1 Models developed in the Netherlands .............................................................................169 6.2 International models .......................................................................................................171 6.3 Human instability in fl owing water .................................................................................175 6.4 Evaluation of models for loss of life estimation ................................................................182 7 A method for the estimation of loss of life caused by fl oods 187 7.1 Introduction and approach .............................................................................................187 7.2 Simulation of fl ood characteristics ..................................................................................189 7.3 Analysis of evacuation and the number of people exposed ...............................................191 7.4 Estimation of the mortality amongst the exposed population ..........................................197 7.5 Discussion of the proposed method for loss of life estimation .........................................217 8 Case study: Preliminary analysis of loss of life caused by the fl ooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina 223 8.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................223 8.2 General information regarding hurricane Katrina ............................................................224 8.3 Simulation of fl ood characteristics ...................................................................................228 8.4 Data regarding Katrina related fatalities ..........................................................................233 8.5 Causes and circumstances of Katrina related fatalities ......................................................235 8.6 Prediction and hindcast of the number of fatalities..........................................................239 8.7 Analysis of the relationship between fl ood characteristics and mortality for New Orleans 240 8.8 Closing discussion ...........................................................................................................251 9 Case study: Flood risk assessment for dike ring South Holland 257 9.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................257 9.2 Method for fl ood risk analysis .........................................................................................260 9.3 Results of risk quantifi cation ...........................................................................................263 9.4 Comparison of the societal risk for fl ooding with other sectors .......................................270 9.5 Evaluation of the fl ood risk .............................................................................................271 9.6 Concluding remarks ........................................................................................................281 10 Conclusions and recommendations 283 10.1 Conclusions ................................................................................................................283 10.2 Recommendations ......................................................................................................286
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