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Wicked Challenges at Land's End: Managing Coastal Vulnerability Under Climate Change

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Wicked Challenges at Land's End: Managing Coastal Vulnerability Under Climate Change EG37CH03-Moser ARI 5 October 2012 14:44 Wicked Challenges at Land’s End: Managing Coastal Vulnerability Under Climate Change Susanne C. Moser,1,2 S. Jeffress Williams,3 and Donald F. Boesch4 1Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, California 95060; email: [email protected] 2Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 3Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822; email: [email protected] 4University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, Maryland 21613; email: [email protected] Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2012. 37:51–78 Keywords The Annual Review of Environment and Resources wicked problems, extreme events, sea-level rise, nonclimatic stressors, is online at environ.annualreviews.org adaptation, transformative change This article’s doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-021611-135158 Abstract Copyright c 2012 by Annual Reviews. With continuing influx of large numbers of people into coastal regions, All rights reserved human stresses on coastal ecosystems and resources are growing at the 1543-5938/12/1121-0051$20.00 same time that climate variability and change and associated conse- quences in the marine environment are making coastal areas less secure Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2012.37:51-78. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org for human habitation. The article reviews both climatic and nonclimatic by University of Maryland - Chesapeake Biological Lab on 10/23/12. For personal use only. drivers of the growing stresses on coastal natural and human systems, painting a picture of the mostly harmful impacts that result and the interactive and systemic challenges coastal managers face in managing these growing risks. Although adaptive responses are beginning to emerge, the adaptation challenge is enormous and requires not just incremental but also transformative changes. At the same time, such “wicked” problems, by definition, defy all-encompassing, definitive, and final solutions; instead, temporary best solutions will have to be sought in the context of an iterative, deliberately learning-oriented risk management framework. 51 EG37CH03-Moser ARI 5 October 2012 14:44 Contents 3.1. Dynamic Fluxes at the 1. PRESENT CHALLENGES Land-Sea Interface . 60 AND FUTURE PRESSURES 3.2. Changes in Sediment ON COASTAL REGIONS . 52 Transport to and along the 1.1. Human Pressures on Coast...................... 60 Coastal Environments . 53 3.3. Nutrient Enrichment . 61 1.2. Coastal Ecosystem 4. COMPOUNDING IMPACTS Degradation and Human OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON Vulnerability . 53 HUMAN SYSTEMS. 62 1.3. The Emerging Threat of 4.1. Overview . 62 Global Climate Change. 54 4.2. Synthesis of Impacts . 63 2. CLIMATE CHANGE: 5. MORE SYSTEMIC AND GLOBAL TRENDS AND ADAPTIVE COASTAL REGIONAL VARIABILITY . 54 MANAGEMENT . 64 2.1. Temperature Increases . 54 5.1. Adaptation Approaches 2.2. Precipitation Changes and andOptions................ 64 Their Consequences for 5.2. Barriers to Adaptation CoastalAreas.............. 56 and Sustainability . 66 2.3. Sea-Level Rise . 56 5.3. Improved Decision Support 2.4. Changing Storminess for Adaptive Coastal Risk and Effects on Coasts . 58 Management . 67 2.5. The Changing Ocean . 59 6. TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE 3. CHANGES IN LAND-SEA COEXISTENCE AT LAND’S INTERACTIONS............ 60 END......................... 68 1. PRESENT CHALLENGES wicked problems do not have unambiguously AND FUTURE PRESSURES good or bad solutions, only temporary best an- ON COASTAL REGIONS swers. Wicked problems—even in a relatively static environment—may continue to plague Coastal regions of the world face “wicked” chal- managers with diabolic challenges, but adding lenges. In a nutshell, with continuing influx global climate change with all its ramifications, of large numbers of people into coastal re- Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2012.37:51-78. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org deep-seated causes, and systemic uncertainties by University of Maryland - Chesapeake Biological Lab on 10/23/12. For personal use only. gions, human stresses on coastal ecosystems will guarantee them (2, 3). and resources are growing at the same time This review aims to frame these wicked that climate variability, climate change, and as- challenges as emerging at the interface of the sociated changes in the marine environment impacts of climate change on already vul- are making coastal areas less secure for hu- nerable, already stressed coastal environments man habitation. Wicked problems (1) are ones (Figure 1). We begin below with a brief sketch that defy complete definition and easy or fi- of the proximate and deeper causes under- nal solutions owing to the inherent and con- lying the current trends at “land’s end” to stantly evolving complexity of the system at set the stage for the exploration of coasts stake. Every intervention in such problems and global environmental change. We then generates further challenges, suggesting that turn to a review of global climate change, 52 Moser · Williams · Boesch EG37CH03-Moser ARI 5 October 2012 14:44 its causes and impacts, including a discussion of the current 26 megacities (>10 million peo- of the potential implications of projected im- ple) are in the immediate coastal zone (9, 10, pacts on human systems and the natural sys- 11). Such concentrations of people require an tems on which they depend. We conclude with influx of external resources and place enormous a discussion of the wicked challenges involved demands on local resources and ecosystem in coastal zone management and adaptation in services to support human needs, economic ac- the context of converging stresses. tivities, and accommodate disposal of waste and emissions. Demographic trends in coastal areas suggest that rapid population growth will con- 1.1. Human Pressures on tinue as a result of in-migration, reproduction, Coastal Environments and temporary visitation by tourists. About 40% of the world’s population lives in the 5% of the world’s land area located within 100 km of the coastline and growth is 1.2. Coastal Ecosystem Degradation continuing (4). Population concentration in and Human Vulnerability this relatively narrow strip of land thus serves Over the past decade and more, there have as a simple first indicator of human pressure been improvements in tracking and assessing on coastal air, waters, and ecosystems. Popu- the effects of human disturbance on coastal lation concentration goes hand in hand with ecosystems (12). The Millennium Ecosystem ongoing extraction of economic value from Assessment (7, 13) used available data and these productive ecosystems and attractive indicators to conclude that coastal and island environments through high-intensity land ecosystems are already among the most highly development and construction; tourism and threatened systems in the world. As all coastal recreation; fishing and aquaculture; agriculture ecosystems are downstream of upland land and fuelwood; shipping, transportation, and uses and pollution sources, some of the most trade; energy and minerals development; waste vulnerable ecosystems—such as coral reefs, disposal; military uses; and other industrial estuaries, wetlands, and mangrove forests—are economic activities (5). Although not new, greatly degraded, and their ecosystem services these pressures are continuing or accelerating (e.g., fisheries, water filtering, flood protection, the observed degradation of coastal ecosystems carbon capture in wetlands, and aesthetic despite various national and more localized value) are already compromised. efforts to halt habitat or species loss, water and Ecological degradation has been the price air quality declines, shoreline hardening, and or unintended consequence of continued threats to human health and security (6, 7). human development in the coastal zone. The Positive feedback effects among population wealth generated has not been shared equally. growth, economic growth and securing viable In many developing nations in particular, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2012.37:51-78. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org by University of Maryland - Chesapeake Biological Lab on 10/23/12. For personal use only. livelihoods, globalization, food production, exposure of the poor and disadvantaged seg- energy, resource and land use, the growing ments of urban populations to flooding and gap between rich and poor, and escalating storm surge hazards, lack of sanitation, and consumption make sustainable development access to only the most marginal resources difficult anywhere on Earth, but particularly and degraded ecosystems is all too common in urban concentrations. The majority of (7). Even in developed nations like the United near-coastal populations still live in relatively States, wealth is not distributed equally in densely populated rural areas and small- to coastal areas, leading to significant differences medium-sized cities (8), but almost two-thirds in social vulnerability (14). When combined of urban settlements with populations greater with the exposure to physical threats, such than 5 million are, at least partly, in areas less as climate change (15) and the degradation than 10 m above sea level (4, p. 17). Indeed, 15 of local environments, complex pictures of www.annualreviews.org • Wicked Challenges at Land’s End 53 EG37CH03-Moser ARI 5 October 2012 14:44 social-ecological vulnerability can arise (16). cumulative effects on humans make place- A particular challenge lies in the cross scalar specific, decision-relevant forecasts difficult. connections between the drivers of social- Such limits to understanding
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