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How Earned and Owned Social Media Impact Shareholder Value Through Consumer Mindset Metrics

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How Earned and Owned Social Media Impact Shareholder Value Through Consumer Mindset Metrics Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 2016 Report No. 16-115 How Earned and Owned Social Media Impact Shareholder Value Through Consumer Mindset Metrics Anatoli Colicev, Ashwin Malshe, Koen Pauwels, and Peter O’Connor “How Earned and Owned Social Media Impact Shareholder Value Through Consumer Mindset Metrics” © 2016 Anatoli Colicev, Ashwin Malshe, Koen Pauwels, and Peter O’Connor; Report Summary © 2016 Marketing Science Institute MSI working papers are distributed for the benefit of MSI corporate and academic members and the general public. Reports are not to be reproduced or published in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without written permission. Report Summary Although recent studies have shown strong effects of social media metrics on sales and business outcomes, it is unclear why and how these effects occur. In this study, Anatoli Colicev, Ashwin Malshe, Koen Pauwels, and Peter O’Connor propose and study a chain of effects from social media to shareholder value through consumer mindset metrics. They test their proposed paths in a unique data set that captures information on daily earned and owned media from social networking websites, consumer mindset metrics (salience, purchase intent, and advocacy), and stock market returns for 45 brands in 11 industries. They merge these data with data on advertising, firm size, and announcements of new products, dividends, earnings, and M&A to derive a final dataset. Findings Owned social media (i.e., brand posts, tweets, replies to users, and retweets) drive brand salience and advocacy but not purchase intent. Owned social media also drive earned social media brand community size and engagement (i.e., likes and “people talking about that,” user retweets, and YouTube video views), which both in turn drive salience and purchase intent. Only purchase intent leads to higher stock returns. Positive and negative comments on social media affect brand advocacy, and negative comments directly drive abnormal returns. Finally, new product announcements, rather than advertising, have a substantial impact on positive social media comments and on brand advocacy. These findings suggest that managers can use owned social media to positively shape conversations on earned social media. Quantifying the differential impacts of growing a brand’s community and improving social media engagement and valence should help managers to design more effective social media strategies. The findings also highlight the role of owned and earned social media in predicting consumer mindset metrics. Managers can use changes in owned and earned social media, which are available in very short time intervals, as proxies for mindset metrics, which are often measured less frequently due to costly sampling requirements. Finally, the study offers insights on the interdependence among social media, customer mindset, and firm performance metrics, and suggests how to elevate all three via the managerial levers of owned social media, new product announcements, and advertising. Anatoli Colicev is a doctoral candidate, Information Systems, Decision Sciences, and Statistics, and Ashwin Malshe is Assistant Professor, Marketing, both at ESSEC Business School, Paris- Singapore. Koen Pauwels is Professor, Marketing, Özyeğin University, İstanbul. Peter O’Connor is Professor, Information Systems, Decision Sciences, and Statistics, ESSEC Business School, Paris-Singapore. Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 1 Acknowledgments The authors thank seminar participants at 2015 Marketing Strategy Meets Wall Street Conference, Big Data Conference 2015, ESSEC Business School, Paul College (UNH), College of Business (UT San Antonio), and Özyeğin University for their comments and YouGov for providing BrandIndex data. Anatoli Colicev and Peter O’Connor acknowledge funding from ESSEC Research Center. Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 2 Introduction US companies now spend on average 10% of their marketing budgets on various types of social media (The CMO Survey 2015). Companies routinely invest in building their own digital assets with social media components, which are commonly known as “owned social media”. For example, most Fortune 500 companies have Twitter accounts (73%), Facebook fan pages (66%), and YouTube channels (62%; Heggestuen and Danova 2013). Companies may also derive social media exposure through user-generated brand mentions, comments, recommendations, etc. Such “earned social media” refer to the activities within the social media sphere that a company does not directly generate (Stephen and Galak 2012). Studies report that at least 42% of Facebook users have mentioned a brand in their status updates (Mazin 2011) and an estimated 19% of all the tweets by Twitter users are brand-related (Jansen et al. 2009). However, almost 87% of marketers are still not able to quantitatively measure the impact of social media on business performance (The CMO Survey 2015). With growing investments in social media, understanding whether and how social media may impact consumers and consequent shareholder value is essential for academicians and practitioners alike (Kumar 2015). To demonstrate the accountability of social media efforts, managers must show that social media lead to the creation of shareholder wealth (Rao and Bharadwaj 2008). Recent studies document a predictive relationship between earned social media and stock market metrics, such as firm value and firm risk (Luo, Zhang, and Duan 2013; Tirunillai and Tellis 2012), thereby making a case for monitoring earned social media. However, firms typically not only monitor but also engage in social media activities, such as creating, developing, and managing online content; facilitating consumer conversations; and influencing consumer mindset metrics (e.g. brand salience) (Peters et al. 2013). How owned and earned social media drive these mindset metrics, which in turn drive shareholder value, is not well understood (Srinivasan, Hsu, and Fournier 2012). Accordingly our research questions are: how do social media relate to key consumer mindset metrics, such as brand salience, purchase intent, and advocacy? Through which paths do specific social media components such as the volume and valence of earned media affect stock market performance? To address these questions, we propose and study the chain of effects from social media to shareholder value through consumer mindset metrics. Recent studies have shown strong effects Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 3 of social media metrics on sales (e.g. Stephen and Galak 2012), retail business outcomes (e.g. Hewett et al. 2015), and financial metrics (e.g. Tirunillai and Tellis 2012). However, it is unclear why and how these effects occur. For instance, Srinivasan, Rutz, and Pauwels (2015) speculate that a few dozen Facebook ‘Unfriends’ do not significantly decrease US-wide sales by themselves, but instead represent a broader customer issue. Likewise, Luo, Zhang, and Duan (2013) argue that investors react to earned social media because it offers unfiltered insights into what brand consumers are currently thinking and feeling, which should affect future consumer behavior. In this paper, we empirically show that social media impact shareholder value partially by influencing consumer mindset metrics. (Tables and figures follow References.) Table 1 compares our research with related current literature on six different aspects. Following Stephen and Galak (2012), we define OSM as brand-initiated, brand-related social media activities that are fully under the brand’s control. Similarly, we define ESM as brand- related social media activities which are initiated by external entities, such as consumers or journalists. We are among the first few to study the impact of earned social media and owned social media (henceforth ESM and OSM respectively) through consumer mindset metrics on shareholder value. Past studies do not capture such mechanism and relate social media directly to performance indicators such as reach (Schulze, Schöler, and Skiera 2014), sales (Stephen and Galak 2012), or shareholder value (Luo, Zhang, and Duan 2013; Tirunillai and Tellis 2012). Recently, Nam and Kannan (2014) proposed that the effect of social tags can affect financial markets via consumer perceptions (i.e., customer-based brand equity). However, they do not have a direct metric of consumer perceptions, and instead infer them from the social tags. In contrast, our causal chain captures both direct effects of social media on shareholder value and indirect effects through consumer mindset metrics. We include a wide array of metrics from social networking websites such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. This contrasts to the most of the extant research, which uses a limited set of social media information such as Facebook posts (Goh, Heng, and Lin 2013), YouTube views (Yoganarasimhan 2012), Facebook likes and unlikes (Srinivasan, Rutz, and Pauwels 2015), blogs (Stephen and Galak 2012), apps (Schulze, Schöler, and Skiera 2014), online reviews Marketing Science Institute Working Paper Series 4 (Tirunillai and Tellis 2012), and social tags (Nam and Kannan 2014). We also distinguish between three dimensions of ESM based on the efforts required by social media participants: the Size of their brand community, the extent of their Engagement, and the Valence of their comments. Whereas joining a community by liking a Facebook page is a low effort ESM activity, engaging with brands by watching videos or retweeting brand
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