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MNC Vision Networks (IPTV) IPTV Takeaways: Undertaking a Synergistic Model

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MNC Vision Networks (IPTV) IPTV Takeaways: Undertaking a Synergistic Model Equity Research IPTV Company Update Monday,28 October 2019 Not Rated MNC Vision Networks (IPTV) IPTV Takeaways: Undertaking a synergistic model Last price (IDR) 500 We followed the MVN team recently to find out more about its OTT platform, the potential acquisition of its internet peer, and the potential sale-lease back of its home passes (HPs). MVN is a growth stock whose underlying strategy is to consolidate its tech platforms and offer a unique content proposition. MVN is endowed with original content. MNC Now is the “Netflix” lever for Stock Statistics MVN selling OTT content to build stickiness. MNC Now is also envisaged to get mobile users onto the MVN content platform. This OTT is adapted for Sector Telco – Media short/medium original content and MNC libraries to generate advertising Bloomberg Ticker IPTV IJ revenues first, with a view to charge subscription fees later. No other internet No of Shrs (mn) 31,702 player has access to that content and not many players are producing either. The MAU is at 10mn and MVN expects strong growth to 60mn by YE2020. Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 16,742/1,209 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 17.0/1.1 MVN is keen to buy out its competitor. MNC group has shown a strong commitment to scale up MVN even after failed attempts to partner with Major shareholders (%) Vivendi. We attended MVN’s 9/10/19 presentation where it stated its plan to Global Mediacom 71.5 acquire a fixed internet peer so that MVN could potentially own 4mn home passes if the transaction could be concluded (~1.5mn MVN standalone). The MNC Media Investasi 7.6 company emphasized additional advertising and subscription fee revenues Estimated free float 10.0 from FTA, MNC channels, libraries and original production when combined with its peer. Cost/capex synergies were stated by relocating overlapping coverage (30%) and gradual 5-30% cost reductions in marketing and bandwidth. Monetizing assets to the maximum extent possible. The founder’s rationale is to shift away from capital-intensive network rollouts, to rely on content services. That opens the door to monetize its HPs via the sale and lease back to raise significant amounts of money (each valued at an avg. Rp3mn). MVN has IPTV relative to JCI Index 18% HP penetration or 264,000 MNCPlay subs generating USD22 ARPU and ability to earn 43% margin after lease cost. The clue revealed by the founder is the old/new government intention to revise IPTV, Rp/share (LHS) UU 52 regulation requiring open access to the country’s existing networks on a Relative to JCI Index 600 160 B2B basis. MVN also enjoys the use of the scarce resource 150MHz spectrum in 2.6Ghz for its DTH service which may potentially be used for future business 500 110 arrangements when MSky subscribers migrate to Kvision or MNC Play. 400 60 An enticing proposition for investors with high risk. MVN is a growth stock with high valuation multiples operating in the underpenetrated pay-TV/fixed 300 10 Broadband internet market with space to evolve further into smarthome solutions, and OTT platforms in line with digital trends. MVN had an EBITDA 200 -40 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 margin of 40% on average in the past, is firmly EBIT positive and in 1H19 became bottom line positive. MVN is leveraged with ~2.6x Net debt/EBITDA. With the inclusion of K-Vision, the management expects revenues growth of Source : Bloomberg 10-15% 5yr CAGR and EBITDA following the same pattern. Net income is guided to jump with a margin at 15-20%. The projections are subject to the execution of MVN’s plans, such as K-Vision integration, the phasing out of MSky, M&A, and future sale lease back agreements. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2016 2017 2018 1H19 Revenue (IDRbn) 3,000 3,141 3,227 1,550 EBITDA (IDRbn) 840 1,158 1,356 616 EBITDA Growth (%) n/a 38 17 1 Niko Margaronis Net profit (IDRbn) (152) (78) (47) 25 EPS (IDR) (5) (2) (1) 1 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3512 EPS growth (%) n/a (49) (39) n/a [email protected] BVPS (IDR) 124 164 95 130 DPS (IDR) n/a n/a n/a n/a PER (x) (104.3) (204.3) (337.4) 639.1 PBV (x) 4.0 3.1 5.2 3.8 www.danareksa.com Dividend yield (%) See important n/a disclosure n/a at the back n/a of this report n/a 1 EV/EBITDA (x) 23.2 16.8 14.3 14.3 Source :IPTV, Bloomberg Consolidating its technology platforms and evolving into a content company. MVN has 3 different technology platforms; It has a DTH satellite based broadcasting service using S-band, it has a fiber-based internet and content service, and MVN is currently adding the KVision DTH service based on KU band. The MNC Group founder’s vision is to transform the tech platform based MVN model into a one content provision-based company with pay-TV (basic up to the most interactive) and mobile OTT. During this journey, MVN has the opportunity to tap many customer segments with the ability to differentiate in terms of technology and content with variable pricing. MVN’s model provides a solid combination of technology, media and telco convergence under the MNC roof with a leading position in content and with the potential to scale based on available broadcasting platforms. MVN is well endowed with content by its parent, accessible to a large market that should enable MVN to grow revenues at a fast pace. The partnerships with passive infra developers for sale-lease back of HPs should accelerate margins expansion through economies of scale. We are awaiting to see traction for proof of this model; thus risks lie in execution, potential fallback in sale lease back agreements, K-Vision integration, the phasing out of MSky, and M&A. Exhibit 1. MNC Sky Vision – a national treasure is hidden Source : MVN MSKY (MSKY IJ) to be phased out. MSKY’s focus has been on targeting urban and suburban households. The management asserts that piracy problems of its signal in the past have been resolved. MSKY has built a substantial sub base which is expected to either migrate to K-Vision or be upsold to the fiber based MNC Play service. MSKY is allocated with significant spectrum in 2.6GHz. Indonesian authorities have evaluated schemes to migrate DTH services which occupy 150MHz from this band to Ku-band which is what K-Vision is using. Exhibit 2. Current allocations in 2.6GHz Source : Ericsson, media www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2 Exhibit 3. K-Vision – adding meat to the bone Source : MVN K-Vision integration to the MVN model. With the latest addition of the K-Vision DTH service, MVN offers an entry level for new Pay-TV users and a path to upscale to more quality and interactive content and to offer the ability to use fixed broadband internet. The key upside outcome is the additional coverage extended by existing network of 3,000 dealers enabling MVN to penetrate the mass market on a prepaid basis. It currently caters to close to 1.2mn subscribers. Its financial results have not yet been incorporated in MVN numbers. Kvision will be used as an offload vehicle for MSKY subscribers who may not wish yet to subscribe to fiber internet. Exhibit 4. MNC Play – the luxury item in MVN’s portfolio Source : MVN MVN operates in the fixed broadband internet market with 1.5mn HPs selling the well-established 2-play fixed internet and Pay-TV. The fiber-optic backbone and HPs are located in tier-1 & tier-2 cities with 18% of those turned to generating ARPU of ~USD22. MVN partners with fiber optic and infrastructure providers to sale and lease back its network with an average price of Rp3mn/HP and Rp135k/month to lease back. In September, MVN and MNC Play entered into an agreement with PLN’s subsidiary ICON+ for the right to use ICON+ transmission and distribution infrastructure. That gives MNC Play an edge tapping PLN’s extensive coverage in Indonesia. www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 3 Exhibit 5. MNC NOW – The future “Netflix” platform for MVN MNC NOW to stay ahead on digital trends. MNC currently has about 10mn monthly active users MAU, tapping the subscribers from the previous 3 platforms as well as from the news portal OKEZONE. MNC Now is the “Netflix” lever for MVN selling OTT content to build stickiness. MNC Now is also envisaged to get mobile users onto the MVN content platform. This OTT is adapted for short/medium original content and MNC libraries to generate advertising revenues first, with a view to charge subscription fees later. No other internet player has access to that content and not many players are producing either. MAU is currently at 10mn and MVN expects strong growth to 60mn by YE2020. www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 4 Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2016 2017 2018 1H19 Revenue 3,000 3,141 3,227 1,550 COGS (2,940) (2,546) (2,608) (1,379) Gross profit 61 595 619 171 EBITDA 1,019 1,306 1,356 616 Oper. profit (94) 327 331 70 Interest income 3 6 2 1 Interest expense (216) (184) (191) (77) Forex Gain/(Loss) 200 (81) (189) 56 Income From Assoc. Co’s - - - - Other Income (Expenses) (159) (82) (66) (45) Pre-tax profit (265) (16) (112) 5 Income tax 57 (112) 43 18 Minority interest (56) (50) (22) (2) Net profit (152) (78) (47) 25 Core Net Profit (152) (78) (47) 25 Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 2016 2017 2018 1H19 Cash & cash equivalent 81 66 75 17 Receivables 328 391 428 418 Inventory 227 556 478 431 Other Curr.
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